Group 1: CPI and PPI Overview - In May, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while the PPI fell by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a slight improvement in domestic economic resilience [1][4] - The decline in CPI was influenced by seasonal factors and falling oil prices, while the core CPI's increase reflects a recovery in consumer demand [2][3] Group 2: Sector-Specific Price Changes - In May, food prices decreased by 0.4%, while non-food prices remained stable; consumer goods prices fell by 0.5%, and service prices rose by 0.5% [2][4] - The industrial producer prices showed a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, with significant contributions from the petroleum and coal industries, which saw price drops of 5.6% and 3% respectively [5][6] - The prices of durable consumer goods, such as gold jewelry and home textiles, increased by 40.1% and 1.9%, respectively, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [3][4] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Recommendations - Future policies should focus on boosting consumption through active fiscal measures to stimulate domestic demand and support price recovery [2][4] - Analysts expect a moderate recovery in prices throughout the year, driven by macroeconomic policies and improvements in supply structure [6]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank emphasizes that merely relying on monetary policy is insufficient to drive price recovery, advocating for structural reforms and coordinated policies across various sectors to promote reasonable price increases [2][5]. Group 1: Price Trends and Indicators - In the first quarter, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with monthly fluctuations of 0.5%, -0.7%, and -0.1% [2]. - Food prices fell by 1.4% year-on-year, influenced by seasonal factors and international oil price volatility [2]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% year-on-year, indicating a mild upward trend in non-food prices [2]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Analysis - Demand remains weak due to global growth slowdown, economic structural transformation, and the need for enhanced consumer spending [3]. - Supply-side issues include excessive competition in certain industries and inefficiencies in traditional sectors, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [3]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - The central bank refutes the notion that increasing money supply will automatically lead to price increases, citing historical examples of low inflation despite monetary expansion [4]. - Effective demand expansion is crucial for price recovery, necessitating structural reforms and coordinated policy efforts across fiscal, monetary, and social sectors [5]. - The focus should shift from managing high prices to managing low prices, emphasizing quality development and preventing disorderly competition [5].

重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 注：表中红字为《政府工作报告》公布的目标，其他为实际值，"-"表示未披露。 01 实际增长目标持平，财政赤字隐含名义增长改善 摘 要 1、中国2025年经济增长目标5%左右，高于年初大部分机构预测，财政赤字隐含名义增长4.9%， 显示官方认为广义物价将得到明显改善。 2、CPI目标从3%下调至2%，是政策目标从过往防通胀到提升物价水平的转变，具有积极意义。 3、财政支出力度与2020年应对新冠疫情冲击时相近，结构更优，可实现性更强。货币政策基调保 持宽松，但对降息偏谨慎，现阶段对汇率稳定和宏观审慎管理更加重视。 3月5日，李强总理在全国人大会议上做《政府工作报告》，提出中国政府对2025年经济社会发展的总体 要求和政策取向，主要指标目标如下表。《政府工作报告》是对中央经济工作会议所作部署的细化和落 地实施计划，此次公布的经济发展目标整体符合市场预期，具体来看有以下几点值得关注： 中国经济发展主要目标一览 | 科目(单位:亿元) | 2025年 | 2024年 | 2023 ...