Core Viewpoint - The performance of the liquor company Jiu Gui Jiu has been declining, with significant drops in revenue and net profit reported for both the first quarter of 2024 and the previous year [2][3][11]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Jiu Gui Jiu achieved revenue of 344.04 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30.34% [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 31.71 million yuan, down 56.78% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 31.45 million yuan, a decrease of 54.76% [3][4]. - For the full year 2023, the company reported total revenue of 1.42 billion yuan, a decline of 49.7%, and a net profit of 12.49 million yuan, down 97.72% [4][5][6]. Product and Segment Performance - All product lines except the Xiangquan series saw revenue declines last year, with the Neican series down 67.06% and the Jiu Gui series down 49.32% [5][6]. - The Xiangquan series, however, experienced a revenue increase of 7.64% [5][6]. Market Trends and Challenges - The liquor industry is currently undergoing a transition period, with high channel inventory and pressure on market prices for various brands [13]. - Increased competition is leading to a concentration of market share among leading companies, exacerbating the "Matthew Effect" in the industry [13]. Shareholder Information - As of March 31, 2024, the total number of shareholders for Jiu Gui Jiu was 142,300, a decrease of 5.26% from the end of the previous year [11]. - Despite the continuous decline in performance, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6 yuan for every 10 shares, totaling 195 million yuan, which exceeds 100% of the net profit for 2024 [11]. Stock Performance - Jiu Gui Jiu's stock price has been on a downward trend since September 2021, dropping over 78.83% from its peak of 273.29 yuan per share [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing external environmental pressures in 2023-2024, with a reasonable revenue growth target of around 9% for 2025, following two years of over 10% sales growth. The focus will shift towards enhancing channel service capabilities and nurturing consumer groups, presenting opportunities for strong companies to further expand their advantages during industry adjustments [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue and net profit of 174.14 billion and 86.23 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.7% and 15.4%, slightly exceeding forecasts [1]. - The company’s sales cash receipts increased by 11.6% to 182.6 billion, while contract liabilities decreased by 32.1% to 9.59 billion [2]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 rose by 38.9% to 92.46 billion, supported by increased sales of acceptance bills [2]. Group 2: Sales and Pricing - The sales volume of Moutai liquor increased by 10.2% to 46,413 tons, with a price increase of 4.6% to 3.14 million per ton, driven by traditional channel price hikes [2]. - Series liquor sales volume grew by 18.5% to 36,920 tons, with a modest price increase of 1.0% to 669,000 per ton, influenced by pricing pressures from the 1935 product line [2]. - The wholesale channel revenue rose by 19.7% to 95.77 billion, while direct sales revenue increased by 11.3% to 74.84 billion, despite a decline in direct sales unit price [3]. Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s gross margin slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 92.0%, with Moutai liquor and series liquor gross margins at 94.1% and 79.9% respectively [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased marginally by 0.12 percentage points to 49.5% [3]. - Increased sales expenses were offset by reduced management costs, leading to a slight decline in overall profitability [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The company plans to increase the domestic market supply of Moutai liquor in 2025, with expectations for kilogram packaging to drive further price increases [4]. - The company maintains a target valuation of 25 times PE, with a target price of 1,870 yuan, supported by a dividend yield of over 3.5% [4].