Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - In the short term, policy expectations outweigh the fundamentals for urea. Although the urea futures (UR) fluctuated upwards and closed at 1817 on the previous trading day, and the upcoming industrial growth - stabilization plan may boost the market, the supply pressure of urea remains high with a daily output close to 200,000 tons and an enterprise inventory of about 750,000 tons. While the top - dressing demand in July supports the price, the urea price may face significant downward pressure if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand does not pick up [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Futures Prices**: On July 22, UR01 closed at 1809 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan or 1.63% from July 21), UR05 at 1815 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan or 1.57%), UR09 at 1817 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan or 0.28%), and the Shandong price at 1840 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.55%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - grained)**: On July 22, the prices in Shanxi, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged at 1720, 1800, and 1760 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Henan was 1850 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.54%), and the price in Jiangsu was 1840 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The Shandong spot - UR basis was 25 yuan/ton on July 22, down 18 yuan from July 21, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 6 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 and 2550 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong was 5007 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan or 0.34%), and in Jiangsu it remained unchanged at 5200 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Not mentioned in the report Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1820 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1828 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1782 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1817 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1806 yuan/ton, and the position was 191,764 lots [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that both rebar and hot-rolled coil are experiencing a bullish and volatile trend driven by macro sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: For rebar, prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou increased by 50 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 30 yuan/ton respectively. For hot-rolled coil, prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou rose by 50 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, and 60 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Tangshan billet increased by 70 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis for RB2510 decreased by 33 yuan/ton, and for HC2510 also decreased by 33 yuan/ton. The spread between RB2510 and RB2601 decreased by 7 yuan/ton, while the spread between HC2510 and HC2601 increased by 1 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2510 and RB2510 remained unchanged, and the spread between HC2601 and RB2601 decreased by 8 yuan/ton. The spot spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Power Consumption**: In June, the total social power consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative total social power consumption was 4841.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The power consumption of the secondary industry was 3148.5 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [3]. - **Industry Policies**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, to promote structural adjustment, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [4]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: According to the weekly data from Steelhome on July 17, rebar production decreased by 7.6 tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 2 tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 0.96 tons. Rebar inventory increased by 2.89 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.65 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 1.92 tons. Rebar apparent demand decreased by 15.33 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.28 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties increased by 0.61 tons [4]. - **Steel Production**: In early July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.97 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous period; 19.31 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.931 million tons, a 1.1% decrease; and 19.88 million tons of steel products, with an average daily output of 1.988 million tons, an 11.9% decrease. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 15.07 million tons, a decrease of 380,000 tons from the previous ten-day period, a 2.4% decrease [4]. - **Financial Data**: At the end of June 2025, the broad money (M2) balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month and 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The narrow money (M1) balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [4]. - **Steel Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel products, a decrease of 900,000 tons from the previous month, an 8.5% decrease; the average price was $687.1 per ton, a decrease of $10.8 per ton from the previous month, a 1.5% decrease. From January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, an increase of 4.908 million tons compared to the same period last year, a 9.2% increase [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is both 1, indicating a moderately bullish trend [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The coal industry is undergoing a "counter - involution" process. The National Energy Administration's coal production verification notice has affected the prices of coking coal, coke, thermal coal, and coal stocks [6]. - In the short - term, for coking coal and coke, the price increase is mainly due to emotional and macro - level disturbances, with the order of price influence being policy news > futures - spot behavior > actual fundamentals [8]. - For polysilicon, the expectation of "counter - involution" policies is deepening. Although the supply - demand pattern is weak, the market is trading based on the expectation of policy and capacity restructuring, and the price may continue to reach new highs [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, and silver is expected to break through and rise. Gold's trend strength is 1, and silver's is also 1 [17][18]. - Yesterday, the prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all increased, with daily increases of 0.40%, 0.39%, and 0.99% respectively [16]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: Domestic spot prices are firm, supporting the price. The trend strength is 1. Yesterday, the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased slightly by 0.04% during the day but increased by 0.29% at night. The London Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.31% [20][22]. - **Zinc**: It will have a slight oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The Shanghai Zinc main contract rose 0.09% yesterday, and the London Zinc 3M electronic disk rose 0.73% [23][25]. - **Lead**: There are still expected supply - demand contradictions, and the price has support. The trend strength is 0. The Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 0.35% yesterday, while the London Lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.17% [26][27]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening. The trend strength is - 1. The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 900 yuan/ton yesterday [30][32]. - **Aluminum**: It will oscillate within a range. Alumina will oscillate upwards, and cast aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are 0, 1, and 0 respectively [33][35]. - **Nickel**: Macro - level sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - level sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [36][40]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke are both expected to oscillate strongly. The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented. Yesterday, the coking coal and coke main contracts closed at the daily limit, mainly due to the coal production verification notice [6][60]. - **Thermal Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and the price will oscillate and stabilize [64]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of policies is becoming stronger, and the price is difficult to fall. The trend strength is 1. The main contract of polysilicon futures rose significantly yesterday [9][44]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of daily limit. The trend strength is 2. The price of the main contract of industrial silicon futures has been rising recently [44]. 3.3 Building Materials and Steel - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - level expectations, it will oscillate strongly. The trend strength is 0. The main contract of iron ore futures rose 1.73% yesterday [47]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro - level sentiment, they will oscillate strongly. The trend strengths of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 1. The prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures increased significantly yesterday [51][54]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Driven by the macro - level market, they will oscillate strongly. The trend strengths of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicide are both 1 [56][58]. 3.4 Others - **Carbonate Lithium**: The sentiment in the commodity market is positive, and it will oscillate strongly. The trend strength is 1. The prices of the main contracts of carbonate lithium futures have been rising recently [41][43].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly next week, with no significant change in demand. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and the annual line pressure still exists. It is recommended to go long at low levels [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote was 2,015 US dollars/ton, up 3.5 US dollars [3] - The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 35 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 101,465 lots, up 2,568 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 2,632 lots, down 1,396 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 60,059 tons, unchanged [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 62,335 tons, up 7,186 tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,925 tons, down 3,475 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,725 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,910 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [3] - The basis of the lead main contract was - 175 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 25.97 US dollars/ton, down 1.77 US dollars [3] - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,096 yuan, down 124 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,710 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.32 million tons, down 0.29 million tons [3] - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 50 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the lead supply - demand balance of ILZSG was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons [3] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly import volume of lead ore was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [3] Industrial Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [3] - The monthly export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries was 10,135.71 yuan/ton, down 26.79 yuan [3] - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41.45 million, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,050 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources was 1,764.64 points, up 13.09 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles [3] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [3] Industry News - US Republican Congressman Luna sent a letter to the Department of Justice accusing Powell of perjury twice and filing criminal charges [3] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that if inflation data is low, interest rates should be lowered, and the Fed should be comprehensively reviewed [3] - Trump administration officials are considering visiting the Fed during the review of its renovation project, and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott is also discussing whether to attend [3] - The White House said Trump has no plan to fire Powell [3] - The US Congressional Budget Office said the "Big and Beautiful" bill may increase the US deficit by $3.4 trillion in ten years [3] - Fitch downgraded the industry outlook rating of 25% of US industries to "deteriorating" [3] View Summary - The supply of primary lead has decreased due to falling prices; the supply of recycled lead is tight due to the shortage of waste battery raw materials, and the resumption of production is slow [3] - The price of 1 lead has fallen; the price of waste batteries has stabilized, and the procurement price of some enterprises has returned to 10,000 yuan/ton [3] - The demand for lead - acid batteries has not shown the seasonal peak effect, and the downstream is still waiting and watching, with limited impact on lead prices [3] - Overseas inventory has increased; domestic inventory has increased slightly, and overall demand has slowed down [3] 提示关注 - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly next week, demand will remain unchanged, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - The steel price is oscillating with an upward bias due to frequent favorable policies. The glass and soda ash markets are significantly affected by positive macro - sentiment, resulting in sharp price increases. The double - silicon market shows an upward - biased oscillation driven by rising macro - expectations [1][3]. - For glass, the supply is basically stable. It is currently in the off - season, and although inventory has decreased, the overall inventory remains high, and the pressure to reduce inventory is still large. In the long run, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. For soda ash, production resumption and maintenance coexist, and the output is stable month - on - month. During the summer maintenance period, the operating rate is expected to remain at a low level. With the "anti - involution" production cuts in photovoltaic glass, the demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further, and the annual inventory pressure is large [1]. - For silicon manganese, the output is stable, and the demand shows resilience with the recovery of hot metal production. However, the high - level inventory of manufacturers and registered warrants suppresses the price. For silicon iron, the output has increased month - on - month, and the demand has slightly decreased. The factory inventory is at a medium - high level. In the short term, the market sentiment has improved, and the price fluctuates with the sector. In the long run, the production capacity is relatively loose [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The glass futures market rose significantly yesterday. In the spot market, downstream procurement was cautious, mainly for immediate needs [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market also rose significantly yesterday. In the spot market, downstream transactions fluctuated with the market, and buyers were mainly in a wait - and - see mode [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: Supply is stable. In the off - season, inventory has decreased but remains high, and the long - term supply - demand is loose. Attention should be paid to glass factory cold - repair plans and profit situations [1]. - Soda Ash: Supply shows coexistence of production resumption and maintenance, with stable output month - on - month. During the summer maintenance, the operating rate will be low. With photovoltaic glass production cuts, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory pressure is large. Monitor production line intermittent maintenance and new production capacity [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillation [2]. - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2]. Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Market Analysis** - Silicon Manganese: Yesterday, it oscillated with an upward bias. In the spot market, confidence was strong. The price in the northern market was 5680 - 5730 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [3]. - Silicon Iron: Yesterday, the futures market was strong. In the spot market, sentiment improved, and the price increased. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon Manganese: Output is stable. With the recovery of hot metal production, demand is resilient. High - level inventory of manufacturers and registered warrants suppresses the price. The Australian manganese ore shipment has basically recovered. Monitor silicon manganese inventory and manganese ore shipment [3]. - Silicon Iron: Output has increased month - on - month, and demand has slightly decreased. Factory inventory is at a medium - high level. In the short term, market sentiment has improved, and the price fluctuates with the sector. In the long run, production capacity is relatively loose. Pay attention to electricity price changes and industrial policies [3]. - **Strategy** - Silicon Manganese: Near - month contracts are suppressed by warrants. Look for low - level rebound opportunities in far - month contracts [4]. - Silicon Iron: Oscillation [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short term, policy expectations outweigh the fundamentals for urea. Although the supply pressure of urea remains high with daily production close to 200,000 tons and enterprise inventory around 750,000 tons, the top - dressing demand in July provides price support. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. The recent strengthening of most commodities is due to the upcoming release of a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On July 21, UR01 closed at 1,780 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan or 3.49% from July 18), UR05 at 1,787 yuan/ton (up 56 yuan or 3.24%), and UR09 at 1,812 yuan/ton (up 67 yuan or 3.84%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In various regions, prices increased, such as in Shandong (up 20 yuan or 1.10% to 1,830 yuan/ton), Henan (up 30 yuan or 1.66% to 1,840 yuan/ton), and Hebei (up 30 yuan or 1.69% to 1,800 yuan/ton). Only the price in the Northeast remained unchanged at 1,760 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained stable at 1,000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2,950 yuan/ton and 2,550 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan or - 0.20% to 4,990 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained stable at 5,200 yuan/ton [1]. b. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 79 yuan/ton to 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan [1]. - The spread between 01 - 05 increased from - 11 yuan/ton to - 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan [1]. c. Trading Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1,790 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,818 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,790 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,812 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,807 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2509 was 195,945 lots [1].

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 22 日星期二 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘瓶片主力合约 PR2509 的期货价格上涨 12 元至 5988 元/吨。持仓方面，主 力合约 2509 持仓量为 3.53 万手，持仓+221 手。现货市场，华东市场水瓶级瓶片价 格上涨 50 元至 6000 元/吨，华南市场水瓶级瓶片价格稳定在 6030 元/吨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 32.5 万吨，较上周减少 0.19 万吨。 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 71.1%，较上周下降 0.4%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5531 元，下降 0.72%；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-192 元/吨，环比增加 21 元/吨。 | | | | | 2、需求方 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the steel, rare earth, and lithium industries, highlighting current market conditions and future outlooks for these sectors. Key Points on Steel Industry - The steel inventory is at its lowest level in ten years, indicating a solid fundamental outlook for the sector [1][4] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio for ordinary steel is at the 15th percentile over the past decade, suggesting it remains undervalued [2][4] - Recommendations include low PB stocks such as New Steel Co., Sansteel Minguang, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [1][4] - The upcoming peak demand season in September-October is expected to improve performance, with potential for profit increases if production cuts are implemented [4] Key Points on Rare Earth Industry - The rare earth sector is positively influenced by the US-China strategic competition, with a focus on Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel [2][5] - The US Department of Defense has set a price floor for yttrium at 890,000 CNY/ton, while domestic prices are significantly lower at 480,000 CNY/ton [5] - Northern Rare Earth is projected to achieve profits of 3 billion CNY in 2026, with a market capitalization potential of 150 billion CNY based on a 50x valuation [5][3] Key Points on Lithium Industry - Lithium carbonate prices have risen from 65,000 CNY/ton to 70,000 CNY/ton, driven by regulatory changes in Jiangxi province [6][12] - The current lithium inventory has increased by 1.3%, but remains at a level equivalent to one month of demand, indicating a manageable supply situation [10] - The Yichun lithium mining permit issue is a critical variable affecting market dynamics, with potential supply chain risks if production is halted [7][11] - Future lithium prices are expected to rise to 75,000 CNY, with futures trading likely to fluctuate around 70,000 CNY [12][13] - Major lithium companies like Tianqi Lithium are showing signs of profitability, while Ganfeng Lithium's performance may improve in Q3 [15] Additional Insights - The upcoming Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with an investment of 1.2 trillion CNY, is expected to benefit companies like Yahua Group involved in lithium and blasting services [2] - The lithium industry is not yet in a supply-demand reversal state, but this may occur by 2026 if demand continues to grow by over 20% [12][16] - Investment opportunities exist in the lithium sector, particularly when companies' PB ratios fall below 1, indicating a favorable buying condition [14][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a state where industry expectations have improved, but the actual situation remains weak. Industrial inventories are accumulating, and more effective demand is needed to drive inventory reduction. The trading suggestion is to conduct light - position, range - bound, and slightly bullish trading while controlling risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract was 71,280 yuan/ton, up 1,320 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 146,856 lots, down 4,392 lots; the position of the main contract was 381,185 lots, up 3,880 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts was 1,260 yuan/ton; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 10,239 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,000 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 66,350 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 3,280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 708 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 6,075 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 1,827 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume was 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the monthly output of power batteries was 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 52%, up 5 percentage points; the price of lithium manganate was 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 49,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate was 220,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) was 144,000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) was 119,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan [2]. - **Downstream and Application**: The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) was 124,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 51%, down 4 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 52%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,268,000 units, down 2,000 units; the monthly sales volume was 1,329,000 units, up 22,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume was 6,937,000 units, up 1,993,000 units; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles was 205,000 units, down 7,000 units; the cumulative export volume was 1.06 million units, up 455,000 units [2]. - **Option Situation**: The total subscription position was 183,514 lots, down 258 lots; the total put position was 83,530 lots, up 11,051 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions was 45.52%, up 6.0773 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.31%, up 0.0287 percentage points [2]. 3.2 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will release a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, as well as work plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment, and a digital transformation implementation plan for the automotive industry [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and two other departments jointly held a symposium on the new energy vehicle industry to deploy work on further standardizing the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [2]. - The Fourth Central Steering Group conducted a special research symposium on comprehensively rectifying the irrational competition problem in the new energy vehicle industry, requiring leading enterprises to compete legally, rationally, and jointly resist irrational competition in the industry to maintain a fair and just market competition order [2]. 3.3 Market Analysis - **Price and Supply - Demand**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuated upwards, with an increase of 2.53% at the close. The position increased month - on - month, the spot was at a discount, and the basis strengthened. On the supply side, due to the rectification of the upstream mining end, the supply of lithium carbonate may decrease. On the demand side, although the overall expectation of lithium carbonate has improved and the lithium price is running strongly, the downstream still mainly focuses on rigid demand consumption, and most enterprises have a low acceptance of high - priced lithium, resulting in a relatively light trading volume in the spot market [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the technical side, the 60 - minute MACD showed that the double lines were above the 0 axis, and the red bars slightly converged [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1006.00 | +80.00↑ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1603.00 | +85.00↑ | | | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 812627.00 | -24982.00↓ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 55868.00 | +1306.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -83710.00 | +87.00↑ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -3829.00 | +99.00↑ | | | JM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 50.00 | +0.50↑ | J1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 51.00 | +6.00↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 0.00 | -500.00↓ | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 760.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日，元/吨） | 757.00 | ...