Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - The steel price is oscillating with an upward bias due to frequent favorable policies. The glass and soda ash markets are significantly affected by positive macro - sentiment, resulting in sharp price increases. The double - silicon market shows an upward - biased oscillation driven by rising macro - expectations [1][3]. - For glass, the supply is basically stable. It is currently in the off - season, and although inventory has decreased, the overall inventory remains high, and the pressure to reduce inventory is still large. In the long run, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. For soda ash, production resumption and maintenance coexist, and the output is stable month - on - month. During the summer maintenance period, the operating rate is expected to remain at a low level. With the "anti - involution" production cuts in photovoltaic glass, the demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further, and the annual inventory pressure is large [1]. - For silicon manganese, the output is stable, and the demand shows resilience with the recovery of hot metal production. However, the high - level inventory of manufacturers and registered warrants suppresses the price. For silicon iron, the output has increased month - on - month, and the demand has slightly decreased. The factory inventory is at a medium - high level. In the short term, the market sentiment has improved, and the price fluctuates with the sector. In the long run, the production capacity is relatively loose [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The glass futures market rose significantly yesterday. In the spot market, downstream procurement was cautious, mainly for immediate needs [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market also rose significantly yesterday. In the spot market, downstream transactions fluctuated with the market, and buyers were mainly in a wait - and - see mode [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: Supply is stable. In the off - season, inventory has decreased but remains high, and the long - term supply - demand is loose. Attention should be paid to glass factory cold - repair plans and profit situations [1]. - Soda Ash: Supply shows coexistence of production resumption and maintenance, with stable output month - on - month. During the summer maintenance, the operating rate will be low. With photovoltaic glass production cuts, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory pressure is large. Monitor production line intermittent maintenance and new production capacity [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillation [2]. - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2]. Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Market Analysis** - Silicon Manganese: Yesterday, it oscillated with an upward bias. In the spot market, confidence was strong. The price in the northern market was 5680 - 5730 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [3]. - Silicon Iron: Yesterday, the futures market was strong. In the spot market, sentiment improved, and the price increased. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon Manganese: Output is stable. With the recovery of hot metal production, demand is resilient. High - level inventory of manufacturers and registered warrants suppresses the price. The Australian manganese ore shipment has basically recovered. Monitor silicon manganese inventory and manganese ore shipment [3]. - Silicon Iron: Output has increased month - on - month, and demand has slightly decreased. Factory inventory is at a medium - high level. In the short term, market sentiment has improved, and the price fluctuates with the sector. In the long run, production capacity is relatively loose. Pay attention to electricity price changes and industrial policies [3]. - **Strategy** - Silicon Manganese: Near - month contracts are suppressed by warrants. Look for low - level rebound opportunities in far - month contracts [4]. - Silicon Iron: Oscillation [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short term, policy expectations outweigh the fundamentals for urea. Although the supply pressure of urea remains high with daily production close to 200,000 tons and enterprise inventory around 750,000 tons, the top - dressing demand in July provides price support. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. The recent strengthening of most commodities is due to the upcoming release of a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On July 21, UR01 closed at 1,780 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan or 3.49% from July 18), UR05 at 1,787 yuan/ton (up 56 yuan or 3.24%), and UR09 at 1,812 yuan/ton (up 67 yuan or 3.84%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In various regions, prices increased, such as in Shandong (up 20 yuan or 1.10% to 1,830 yuan/ton), Henan (up 30 yuan or 1.66% to 1,840 yuan/ton), and Hebei (up 30 yuan or 1.69% to 1,800 yuan/ton). Only the price in the Northeast remained unchanged at 1,760 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained stable at 1,000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2,950 yuan/ton and 2,550 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan or - 0.20% to 4,990 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained stable at 5,200 yuan/ton [1]. b. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 79 yuan/ton to 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan [1]. - The spread between 01 - 05 increased from - 11 yuan/ton to - 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan [1]. c. Trading Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1,790 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,818 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,790 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,812 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,807 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2509 was 195,945 lots [1].

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 22 日星期二 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘瓶片主力合约 PR2509 的期货价格上涨 12 元至 5988 元/吨。持仓方面，主 力合约 2509 持仓量为 3.53 万手，持仓+221 手。现货市场，华东市场水瓶级瓶片价 格上涨 50 元至 6000 元/吨，华南市场水瓶级瓶片价格稳定在 6030 元/吨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 32.5 万吨，较上周减少 0.19 万吨。 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 71.1%，较上周下降 0.4%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5531 元，下降 0.72%；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-192 元/吨，环比增加 21 元/吨。 | | | | | 2、需求方 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the steel, rare earth, and lithium industries, highlighting current market conditions and future outlooks for these sectors. Key Points on Steel Industry - The steel inventory is at its lowest level in ten years, indicating a solid fundamental outlook for the sector [1][4] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio for ordinary steel is at the 15th percentile over the past decade, suggesting it remains undervalued [2][4] - Recommendations include low PB stocks such as New Steel Co., Sansteel Minguang, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [1][4] - The upcoming peak demand season in September-October is expected to improve performance, with potential for profit increases if production cuts are implemented [4] Key Points on Rare Earth Industry - The rare earth sector is positively influenced by the US-China strategic competition, with a focus on Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel [2][5] - The US Department of Defense has set a price floor for yttrium at 890,000 CNY/ton, while domestic prices are significantly lower at 480,000 CNY/ton [5] - Northern Rare Earth is projected to achieve profits of 3 billion CNY in 2026, with a market capitalization potential of 150 billion CNY based on a 50x valuation [5][3] Key Points on Lithium Industry - Lithium carbonate prices have risen from 65,000 CNY/ton to 70,000 CNY/ton, driven by regulatory changes in Jiangxi province [6][12] - The current lithium inventory has increased by 1.3%, but remains at a level equivalent to one month of demand, indicating a manageable supply situation [10] - The Yichun lithium mining permit issue is a critical variable affecting market dynamics, with potential supply chain risks if production is halted [7][11] - Future lithium prices are expected to rise to 75,000 CNY, with futures trading likely to fluctuate around 70,000 CNY [12][13] - Major lithium companies like Tianqi Lithium are showing signs of profitability, while Ganfeng Lithium's performance may improve in Q3 [15] Additional Insights - The upcoming Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with an investment of 1.2 trillion CNY, is expected to benefit companies like Yahua Group involved in lithium and blasting services [2] - The lithium industry is not yet in a supply-demand reversal state, but this may occur by 2026 if demand continues to grow by over 20% [12][16] - Investment opportunities exist in the lithium sector, particularly when companies' PB ratios fall below 1, indicating a favorable buying condition [14][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a state where industry expectations have improved, but the actual situation remains weak. Industrial inventories are accumulating, and more effective demand is needed to drive inventory reduction. The trading suggestion is to conduct light - position, range - bound, and slightly bullish trading while controlling risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract was 71,280 yuan/ton, up 1,320 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 146,856 lots, down 4,392 lots; the position of the main contract was 381,185 lots, up 3,880 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts was 1,260 yuan/ton; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 10,239 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,000 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 66,350 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 3,280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 708 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 6,075 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 1,827 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume was 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the monthly output of power batteries was 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 52%, up 5 percentage points; the price of lithium manganate was 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 49,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate was 220,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) was 144,000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) was 119,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan [2]. - **Downstream and Application**: The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) was 124,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 51%, down 4 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 52%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,268,000 units, down 2,000 units; the monthly sales volume was 1,329,000 units, up 22,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume was 6,937,000 units, up 1,993,000 units; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles was 205,000 units, down 7,000 units; the cumulative export volume was 1.06 million units, up 455,000 units [2]. - **Option Situation**: The total subscription position was 183,514 lots, down 258 lots; the total put position was 83,530 lots, up 11,051 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions was 45.52%, up 6.0773 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.31%, up 0.0287 percentage points [2]. 3.2 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will release a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, as well as work plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment, and a digital transformation implementation plan for the automotive industry [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and two other departments jointly held a symposium on the new energy vehicle industry to deploy work on further standardizing the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [2]. - The Fourth Central Steering Group conducted a special research symposium on comprehensively rectifying the irrational competition problem in the new energy vehicle industry, requiring leading enterprises to compete legally, rationally, and jointly resist irrational competition in the industry to maintain a fair and just market competition order [2]. 3.3 Market Analysis - **Price and Supply - Demand**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuated upwards, with an increase of 2.53% at the close. The position increased month - on - month, the spot was at a discount, and the basis strengthened. On the supply side, due to the rectification of the upstream mining end, the supply of lithium carbonate may decrease. On the demand side, although the overall expectation of lithium carbonate has improved and the lithium price is running strongly, the downstream still mainly focuses on rigid demand consumption, and most enterprises have a low acceptance of high - priced lithium, resulting in a relatively light trading volume in the spot market [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the technical side, the 60 - minute MACD showed that the double lines were above the 0 axis, and the red bars slightly converged [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1006.00 | +80.00↑ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1603.00 | +85.00↑ | | | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 812627.00 | -24982.00↓ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 55868.00 | +1306.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -83710.00 | +87.00↑ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -3829.00 | +99.00↑ | | | JM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 50.00 | +0.50↑ | J1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 51.00 | +6.00↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 0.00 | -500.00↓ | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 760.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日，元/吨） | 757.00 | ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/7/21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,394 | +84↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1600476 | +4222↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -61,951 | -27581↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -16 | -6↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 60454 | -293↓ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 170 | +7↑ | | | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,440.00 | +80.00↑ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,430.00 | +80.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,450.00 | +80.00↑ 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3, ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the supply is expected to remain abundant while demand hovers at the bottom. It reached the upper limit of the daily increase today, and tomorrow's ability to break through the 60 - day average is to be observed, with expected suppression. It is recommended to temporarily hold off on trading the soda ash main contract. - For glass, the industry's overall profit has improved, and the subsequent resumption of production is expected to increase. Currently, it is in a period of structural improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main - contract closing price: 1,295 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan; glass main - contract closing price: 1,173 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 122 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; soda ash main - contract open interest: 1,252,582 lots, down 297,884 lots; glass main - contract open interest: 1,226,964 lots, down 275,587 lots. - Soda ash top 20 net positions: - 302,967, up 157,101; glass top 20 net positions: - 293,898, up 125,572. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, down 290 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, down 661 tons. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: - 59 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; glass September - January contract spread: - 81 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. - Soda ash basis: - 6 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; glass basis: 7 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1,210 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash: 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. - East China light soda ash: 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Shahe glass sheets: 1,088 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets: 1,130 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 84.1%, up 2.78 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, down 0.34 percentage points. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.78 million tons/year, down 0.06 million tons; glass in - production production lines: 223, down 1. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 1.8842 million tons, down 21,400 tons; glass enterprise inventory: 64.939 million weight boxes, down 2.163 million weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area: 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area: 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals. - The supply of soda ash has increased, and the profit has rebounded slightly but remains negative. The subsequent soda ash output is expected to decline, and the natural - soda - ash method will gradually become the mainstream [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. - Glass: The supply remains at a low level, with obvious signs of production for rigid demand. The profit has improved, and the resumption of production is expected to increase. The demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and the demand for photovoltaic glass is under inventory pressure [2].

1. Hot News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and three other departments have deployed work to further standardize the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry, including product price monitoring, product consistency supervision, and shortening the payment period for suppliers. The central fourth steering group also called for regulating the industry's competition order [2] - The Chief Engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Xie Shaofeng, pointed out that a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials have been released. Plans for industries like machinery, automobiles, and power equipment, as well as an implementation plan for the digital transformation of the automobile industry, will be issued [2] - EU member states have officially approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including sanctions on the largest refinery of a Russian oil company in India, banning activities related to the "Nord Stream" gas pipeline, and lowering the oil price cap to $47.6 [2] - The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held in Nyingchi, Tibet. The project involves building 5 cascade power stations with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was established [3] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will optimize the option settlement price business from July 22, using the SVI volatility model to calculate the settlement price [3] 2. Sector Performance Key Focus - Urea, lithium carbonate, PVC, crude oil, and hot - rolled coils are the sectors to focus on [4] Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.91%, precious metals 28.64%, energy 3.26%, chemicals 12.63%, grains 1.26%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.79% [4] Commodity Sector Funds - The data shows the percentage changes in commodity sector funds, but specific changes for each sector are not clearly described [4] Commodity Futures Position Changes - The position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days are presented, but specific data for each sector are not clearly described [6] 3. Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% daily, 2.61% monthly, and 5.45% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.33% daily, 3.13% monthly, and 23.76% annually. Other indices such as the S&P 500, German DAX, etc., also have corresponding performance data [8] Fixed - income - 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, 0.10% monthly, and 0.12% annually; 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.05% daily, 0.16% monthly, and 0.52% annually [8] Commodity - The CRB commodity index rose 0.62% daily, 2.97% monthly, and 3.17% annually; WTI crude oil fell 0.31% daily, rose 3.58% monthly, and fell 6.38% annually [8] Others - The US dollar index fell 0.18% daily, rose 1.74% monthly, and fell 9.24% annually; the CBOE volatility index fell 0.67% daily, 1.91% monthly, and 5.42% annually [8]

| 甲醇日评20250721:短期政策预期大于基本面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变化值 | 変化值 | 2025/7/17 | 2025/7/18 | 指标 | 单位 | (绝对值) | (相对目) | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2434.00 | 2438.00 | -4.00 | -0.16% | | | | | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2364.00 | -0.04% | 2365.00 | -1.00 | 甲醇期货价格 | (收盘价) | | | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2365.00 | 2373.00 | -0.34% | -8.00 | | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2385.00 | 2387.50 | -0.10% | -2.50 | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2265.00 | 10.00 | 0.44% | | | | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2400.00 | 2385.00 | 15.00 | 0.63% ...