债券月度回顾 11月以来，由于央行宣布重启国债买卖，债市情绪一度有所回暖，月初收益率小幅下行，但受央行买债 规模不及预期、年内货币宽松可能性降低等因素影响，收益率很快转为震荡上行，叠加公募基金费率新 规落地预期反复扰动，市场多头动力不足，缺乏交易主线。同时，债市弱势调整背景下，基金赎回压力 有所增加，进一步放大市场波动。全月10年期国债收益率上行近5BP至1.84%。 商品月度回顾 11月大宗商品市场明显分化。贵金属震荡走高，伦敦金现货月末收于4218.55美元/盎司，较上月上涨 5.41%；国内黄金现货收于948.15元/克，较上月上涨2.89%。有色板块区间震荡，伦铜收于11175.5美元/ 吨，上涨2.61%；沪铜收于87430元/吨，上涨0.48%。原油市场震荡下行，布伦特原油收于62.32美元/ 桶，月跌幅3.50%；上期所原油收于453.90元/桶，月跌幅1.05%。黑色板块先抑后扬，上期所螺纹钢收 于3110元/吨，月涨幅0.13%；大商所铁矿石收于794元/吨，较上月下跌0.75%。农产品内部分化，大商 所大豆收于3760元/吨，月涨幅1.08%；大商所玉米收于2244元/吨，月涨幅5.35% ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The consumer sector showed strong performance in early trading, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF (Huashan, 159285) rising by 0.97% and the Food and Beverage ETF (516900) increasing by 0.69% [1] - The technology sector remains active, with the Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588290) up 55.66% year-to-date and the ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) up 57.23% year-to-date as of December 11 [1] Group 2: Economic Policy and Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 emphasized the importance of domestic demand, aiming to build a strong domestic market and implement actions to boost consumption [1] - The conference plans to expand the supply of quality goods and services, optimize the implementation of "two new" policies, and remove unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash service consumption potential [1] - The conference also aims to stabilize investment, increase the scale of central budget investments, and effectively stimulate private investment through new policy financial tools [1] Group 3: Sector Analysis - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the Chinese consumer market is complex and diverse, presenting new opportunities, with significant growth potential for both new consumption enterprises and leading traditional consumer companies [1] - Guotai Junan Securities noted a clear divergence in micro-enterprise profitability, primarily concentrated in high-growth sectors such as TMT and industries benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, indicating a structural recovery driven by new economy sectors [2]

此前我们发出了对债市的做多信号，刚好遇上央行宣布重启国债买卖的利好消息。一个月下来之后，我们发现债市重新走回了"上有顶、下有底"的窄幅震荡 状态，这也是我们到年末的主要观点。 为什么要重提"上有顶、下有底"？首先，目前宏观"水温"比较冷，我们仍处于新旧动能转换时期，社会名义增长率相对不足，这对债市形成了支撑。但今年 货币政策非常温和，央行在避免引导债市形成单边预期，因此向更低利率突破的难度较大。有投资人会问，在这种震荡市该如何操作？我们的建议是：首 先，仓位不宜过重，因为震荡市确实难以择时；其次，建议大家参考我们第二部分将要介绍的量化择时模型，进行更精细化的操作。我们的模型也将陪伴各 位投资者，在市场中持续跟踪、不断迭代。 在介绍具体量化模型之前，我们先分析债市的潜在空间。量化模型跟踪的是趋势，仅能告知我们趋势延续的方向，但对远期空间的判断才是决定仓位的关 键。首先需要说明的是，历史上债市的大级别回撤，往往是基本面与政策面共同作用的结果。因此，目前大家暂时无需担心债券出现进一步大幅涨跌。当 然，近期有观点认为债市与基本面"脱钩"，或认为基本面分析、宏观分析已失效。但我们认为这种说法并不准确，基本面仍是核心分析 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes a continuation of proactive macroeconomic policies, including more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, to support economic recovery and stabilize the capital market [1] Market Environment - The overseas economy remains resilient with marginally easing liquidity, alongside rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, indicating an improving external environment [1] - Domestically, the "dual easing" policy is expected to continue, leading to a likely weak recovery in the economy, while "anti-involution" policies are set to optimize industry supply and demand dynamics, positively impacting listed company performance [1] Investment Themes - The technology growth sector remains the core focus for the medium to long term, with the AI industry chain expected to shift from hardware to application, particularly in media, computing, and internet sectors [2] - Four specific investment lines are highlighted: 1. High dividend assets are seeing increased accumulation by institutional investors, with sectors like white goods, banking, and telecommunications showing promising dividend strategies [2] 2. The "anti-involution" trend is entering a phase driven by fundamentals, with significant performance improvement expected in coal, steel, and photovoltaic industries [2] 3. Domestic demand expansion focuses on "matching effects," with new consumption areas like health consumption and pet economy, alongside travel and aviation sectors, presenting opportunities [2] 4. In the resource sector, strategic minor metals and industrial metals are anticipated to follow gold in price recovery, benefiting from the upward trend in commodity prices [2] Outlook for 2026 - With policy support, improving internal and external environments, and structural optimization, the A-share market is likely to continue its upward trend, with a focus on technology growth and advantageous niche sectors as the core logic for capturing market opportunities [2]

Market Overview - In November 2025, the market entered a phase of adjustment after a previous upward trend, with major indices showing declines, including a drop of over 4% in the STAR Market Index and a 1.67% decrease in the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - Despite the market's downturn, the private equity industry reported strong performance, with 90.66% of 12,415 private equity products showing positive returns and an average return of 22.61% [1] Performance by Strategy - Among five major strategies, the stock strategy emerged as the biggest winner, with an average return of 27.07% and a positive return ratio of 91.78% [2][3] - Quantitative long strategies outperformed subjective long strategies, achieving an average return of over 36% and a positive return ratio of 96.11% [2][4] Strategy Differentiation - The performance of stock strategies showed significant internal differentiation, with quantitative strategies capturing opportunities effectively despite a market environment that favored subjective strategies [2][4] - Subjective long strategies demonstrated strong performance among top performers, with a 5% percentile return of 82.57%, the highest among sub-strategies [4] Market Sentiment and Positioning - As the market adjusted, private equity managers shifted towards defensive and structural optimization strategies, with a slight decrease in aggressive positions [8][9] - By the end of November, 92.9% of subjective long strategy products maintained positions above 50%, although the proportion of fully invested and leveraged positions decreased [8][9] Future Investment Themes - Looking ahead to 2026, there is a consensus among institutions on investment themes centered around energy infrastructure, "anti-involution" policies, and globalization opportunities [11][12] - The development of AI is expected to drive global electricity demand, leading to a reevaluation of energy and power infrastructure investments [11] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to improve supply-demand dynamics in various industries, presenting substantial investment opportunities [12] Divergence in Market Outlook - There are differing views on the recovery of the consumer sector and volatility in the Hong Kong market, with some private equity firms maintaining high positions in Hong Kong stocks while others have reduced exposure [13] - Overall, private equity managers are adopting a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026, recognizing the challenges of valuation pressures and macroeconomic uncertainties while remaining confident in China's economic transformation [13]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [2][3] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by a shift in food prices from decline to increase, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 14.5% after nine consecutive months of decline [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating stable inflationary pressures [2][3] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking the second consecutive month of growth, influenced by seasonal demand increases in certain industries [4] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline slightly widening compared to the previous month, primarily due to high comparison bases from the previous year [4] - The increase in PPI was supported by rising prices in coal and gas sectors, while international oil price fluctuations led to a decrease in domestic oil and gas extraction prices [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are showing results, with price declines in key industries narrowing, indicating improved market competition [5] - Emerging industries are rapidly developing, contributing to price increases in related sectors, such as a 13.9% rise in external storage devices and components [6] - Future inflation is expected to remain low, with a gradual recovery in prices anticipated due to stable domestic demand and effective competition governance [7][8]

供给扰动消退带动出口回升，政策加码或支撑服务消费、投资上行。 一问：11月经济活动有何亮点？ 清账或持续约束制造业投资，地产对经济的拖累或尚未改善。 11月经济增长压力或仍聚焦于制造业领域，主要表现为企业加快清缴欠款，对投资产生额外拖累。本轮化债也要求企业加快清缴欠款，但由于当前企业盈利 偏弱，企业或将投资的资金用于清缴欠款，导致固定投资回落；10月应收账款增速降至5.1%。此外，去年来制造业投资强劲并非缘于政策驱动，更多是设 备处于自然更新上行周期；但下半年来，自然周期退坡，或也拖累制造业投资。 "反内卷"政策思路从严格限产转向构建中性成本机制，因而目前制造业中下游的反内卷进度偏慢，或令成本率仍处历史高位。与供给侧改革严格限产的政策 不同，本轮"反内卷"政策强调构建行业中性成本机制，引导企业避免低价竞争，而非直接限产，因而也导致反内卷进度偏慢的领域聚焦在中下游。规模以上 工业企业数据显示，目前其成本率仍维持高位，中下游消费链尤为明显。 地产对经济的拖累或未出现改善下，11月地产投资、商品房销售可能进一步回落。2021年房企融资承压导致施工周期拉长，今年四季度地产投资的在建项 目，对应的仍是2022年四季度开 ...

她认为，PPI分行业同比数据，从三个维度清晰展现了我国各项宏观政策持续发力显效，价格走势呈现 积极向好的变化态势。一是综合整治"内卷式"竞争成效显现，相关行业价格同比降幅收窄。具体来看， 煤炭开采和洗选业、光伏设备及元器件制造、锂离子电池制造价格同比降幅比上月分别收窄3.8个、2.0 个和0.7个百分点，均已连续多个月收窄；新能源车整车制造价格降幅比上月收窄0.6个百分点。二是新 兴产业快速发展，带动相关行业价格同比上涨。三是消费潜力有效释放，带动有关行业价格同比回升向 好。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，当前，"以旧换新"政策发力，汽车、家电等商品价格同比数据上行 势头较为明显，这是近期核心CPI同比涨幅扩大的主要原因。 冠通期货研究咨询部经理王静告诉期货日报记者，11月数据显示，物价温和回升势头仍需加力巩 固，"反内卷"政策的力度有待进一步提升。创元期货研究员刘钇含也表示，11月物价水平基本已经筑 底，但工业品价格走势偏弱，需要继续出台提振需求的相关政策，促进物价水平进一步企稳回升。 王青表示，未来一段时间物价水平偏低格局将延续，这为年底前后稳增长政策发力特别是央行适度降息 提供了充分空间，当前无需担心 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of dividend-themed funds has significantly accelerated in the second half of the year, driven by favorable policies and market conditions, leading to a renewed interest in high-dividend assets [1][5]. Fund Issuance Growth - In the first half of the year, 26 dividend-themed funds were issued, raising a total of 9.398 billion yuan, with the largest single fund size being 1 billion yuan and a median size of 300 million yuan. By December 9, the number of funds issued in the second half had increased to 37, with a total size of 20.444 billion yuan, marking a more than double growth compared to the first half [3][4]. - The maximum fundraising size for a single product in the second half reached 1.767 billion yuan, and the median size rose to 400 million yuan, indicating a significant increase in issuance enthusiasm [3]. Market Structure and Focus - The market has seen a notable increase in the issuance of Hong Kong dividend funds, with 12 new products launched in the second half, surpassing the first half's figures. The leading fund, "浦银安盛港股通央企红利," raised 1.289 billion yuan [3][4]. - There has also been a substantial expansion in low-volatility dividend products, with 19 new products launched, covering various indices such as the 中证800红利低波动指数 and 沪深300红利低波动指数 [3]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" and stable growth policies have positively influenced market sentiment, improving profit expectations for related industries. The regulatory emphasis on cash dividends has enhanced the certainty of high-dividend assets, making them more attractive in a volatile market [1][6]. - Institutional demand for stable cash flows has increased, particularly among long-term funds like insurance and pension funds, which have shown a preference for high-dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment [7]. ETF Expansion - The rapid growth of dividend ETFs has been notable, with their scale expanding from 50 billion yuan at the end of 2023 to nearly 200 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting the evolving structure of the dividend strategy [8].

高层楼房林立的北京郊外住宅区（2025年2月，北京市） IMF以政府的宏观经济政策和中美双方11月实施的关税下调为由上调了预测值。由于中国政府提出 了"反内卷"政策等，预计2025年平均为0%的通货膨胀率到2026年将上升至0.8%…… 12月10日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）公布了关于中国经济的年度报告，预测中国2025年增长率为 5.0%，2026年为4.5%。与10月发布的世界经济展望相比，分别上调0.2个百分点和0.3个百分点。 中国政府提出了2025年国内生产总值（GDP）增长率定为5%左右的目标。IMF以政府的宏观经济政策 和中美双方11月实施的关税下调为由上调了预测值。 由于中国政府提出了遏制过度降价、生产和投资的"反内卷"政策等，预计2025年平均为0%的通货膨胀 率到2026年将上升至0.8%。 报告指出，持续的房地产不景气、地方政府的财政恶化、消费者心理低迷正在导致内需疲软和通货紧缩 压力。从中期来看，生产率低下和老龄化将拖累经济增长率。 报告建议称，作为政府的政策，有必要优先考虑"摆脱对出口和投资的过度依赖，转向消费主导的增长 模式"。为了扩大内需，需要采取财政刺激政策和社会保障制度，加 ...