1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Nickel - The nickel market is expected to trade in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The short - term fundamentals lack drivers, and the mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upside space [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main operating range of 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton. The supply is high, the demand is slowly recovering, and the social inventory is still high [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton. The supply is sufficient, the demand is affected by policies, and the inventory is at a high level [6]. Tin - The tin price is expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the long term due to the slow supply recovery and weak demand expectations. It is recommended to short on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points [7]. Zinc - In the long term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. The price may maintain a high - level shock if the mine supply growth is lower than expected and the downstream consumption is better than expected. Otherwise, the price may decline [10]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price is supported by the low inventory and low warehouse receipts, with the upper limit around 20,500 yuan/ton. In Q3, the price may face pressure, with the support level at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [14]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.64% to 120,725 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel price decreased by 0.71% to 121,775 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 0.31% to - 192 dollars/ton [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The prices of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,750 yuan/ton and 12,900 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.25% to 60,500 yuan/ton, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.25% to 58,900 yuan/ton [6]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.11% to 265,300 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.85% to - 82.5 dollars/ton [7]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.08% to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 528 yuan/ton [10]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.48% to 20,630 yuan/ton, and the alumina prices in Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi decreased [13]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.39% to 78,645 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 912 yuan/ton [14]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% to 35,350 tons, and the import volume increased by 8.18% to 8,832 tons. The SHFE inventory decreased by 5.39% to 25,676 tons [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% to 179.12 million tons, and the import volume increased by 10.26% to 14.21 million tons [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate production in May decreased by 2.34% to 72,080 tons, and the demand increased by 4.81% to 93,938 tons. The total inventory increased by 1.49% to 97,637 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The 4 - month tin ore import increased by 18.48% to 9,861 tons, and the SMM refined tin production in May decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons. The SHEF inventory decreased by 3.59% to 7,107 tons [7]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc production in May decreased by 1.08% to 54.94 million tons, and the import volume increased by 2.40% to 2.82 million tons. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 4.41% to 7.81 million tons [10]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina production in May increased by 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% to 372.90 million tons. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 3.98% to 45.80 million tons [13]. - **Copper**: The electrolytic copper production in May increased by 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 19.06% to 25.00 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 8.76% to 81.28 million tons [14]. Market Analysis - **Nickel**: The macro environment is stable, the spot market sentiment is low, and the cost support is slightly weakened. The downstream demand is mainly based on on - demand procurement [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market trading is light, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The supply is high, and the demand is slowly recovering [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures market is volatile, and the market sentiment is weak. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is affected by policies [6]. - **Tin**: The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply recovery is slow, and the demand expectation is weak [7]. - **Zinc**: The supply - side mine is loose, and the demand - side is gradually weakening. The downstream consumption is in the off - season [10]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term price is supported by the low inventory, but the demand is expected to weaken in the off - season. The alumina supply is gradually increasing [13]. - **Copper**: The macro environment is weak, and the "strong reality" of the fundamentals restricts the decline. The "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [14].

Group 1 - The macroeconomic indicators show a mixed performance, with recent data indicating a significant increase in consumer spending, particularly in service and new consumption sectors, with retail sales growing by 6.4%, the largest increase in nearly two years [3][4] - Traditional consumption sectors, exemplified by the liquor industry, continue to face downward pressure, with notable declines in leading products like Moutai, which has seen prices drop below 2000 yuan per bottle, signaling potential market distress [4] - The market is experiencing a recovery in various asset classes, despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, suggesting that the recent disruptions may be short-term in nature [3][4] Group 2 - The analysis emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between new consumption and traditional consumption sectors, with a recommendation to focus on the former for investment opportunities [4] - Recent policy changes and economic indicators are closely intertwined, indicating a potential for increased market activity and investment in the near future [3][4]

Economic Performance - In May, the industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, down from 6.1% in the previous month[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, up from 5.1% in April, indicating stronger consumer demand[3] - Fixed asset investment for January to May showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value[3] Industrial Sector Insights - The manufacturing sector's added value growth slowed to 6.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to external trade environment changes[8] - The export delivery value of industrial enterprises fell to 0.6% year-on-year in May, down from 0.9% in April, reflecting ongoing challenges in international trade[8] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 8.6%, indicating resilience in this sector despite overall industrial slowdowns[8] Consumer Behavior - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales in durable goods, with household appliances and communication equipment seeing growth rates of 53.0% and 33.0%, respectively[12] - Despite a rebound in automobile retail sales growth to 1.1%, there remains a significant gap between sales volume and revenue growth, attributed to price pressures in the market[12] - Overall, consumer spending showed strong resilience, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating consumption[12] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment for January to May grew by 8.5%, but is expected to decline to around 8.3% in the coming months due to external economic pressures[13] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 10.7%, with a monthly drop of 12.4% in May, reflecting a cooling housing market[13] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 5.6% year-on-year, but the monthly growth rate fell to 5.1%, indicating a slowdown in project implementation[16] Future Outlook - The central bank is expected to continue interest rate cuts in the second half of the year to support economic growth, alongside new fiscal measures[17] - The real estate market requires further stabilization efforts, with policies aimed at supporting housing purchases and reducing mortgage rates being prioritized[17]

Economic Growth Insights - May economic data shows resilience despite external pressures, with industrial added value growth at 5.8%, only down 0.3 percentage points from April's 6.1%[3] - Fixed asset investment growth remains stable at 3.7%, with real estate investment dragging down at -10.7%[3] - Manufacturing investment grew by 8.5%, with the fastest growth in transportation equipment manufacturing at 26.1%[3] Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Retail sales growth in May reached 6.4%, the first time exceeding 6% in 2024, driven by promotional activities[3] - Significant growth in household appliances (53%) and communication equipment (33%) indicates strong policy support for consumption[3] - Anticipated adjustments in June may lead to a decline in consumption growth due to demand pull-forward from May[3] Employment and Future Outlook - Urban unemployment rate in May was stable at 5.0%, showing no significant impact from external shocks[3] - The second quarter GDP is expected to remain stable, with minimal fluctuations anticipated due to external changes[3] - Future growth will be supported by manufacturing, infrastructure investment, and consumer spending, despite potential declines in exports[3] Risk Considerations - Risks include heightened geopolitical conflicts and unexpected increases in oil prices impacting domestic costs[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows that US inflation data is weakening, labor market is stable, and there are certain results in Sino - US trade negotiations. Geopolitical risks are rising, and the US - Iran conflict may push up the US dollar index and put pressure on nickel prices. [2] - Fundamentally, the risk of resource disturbances has decreased as the Philippines cancels the nickel ore export ban. Indonesia's resource supply is tight, and the high ore price provides cost support. The demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak, and the supply side has also weakened, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. [2] - In the later stage, macro factors may cause periodic disturbances, and the weak fundamental expectation will continue. Nickel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - SHFE nickel price dropped from 122,710 yuan/ton on June 9, 2025, to 119,920 yuan/ton on June 13, 2025, a decrease of 2,790 yuan/ton. LME nickel price decreased from 15,421 US dollars/ton to 15,128 US dollars/ton, a decline of 293 US dollars/ton. [4] - LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,568 tons to 197,538 tons, while SHFE nickel inventory increased by 573 tons to 21,765 tons. [4] - The average price of high - nickel pig iron dropped from 960 yuan/nickel point to 947 yuan/nickel point. [4] - Stainless steel inventory increased from 893,000 tons to 917,000 tons, an increase of 23,500 tons. [4] 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Nickel Ore - The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines rose from 50 US dollars/wet ton to 51.55 US dollars/wet ton. The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia remained at 41.3 US dollars/wet ton. The resource disturbance risk has been eliminated, but the supply in Indonesia is still tight, and the cost side is supported. [5] 3.2.2 Ferronickel - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 951.5 yuan/nickel point to 934.5 yuan/nickel point. In May, China's nickel pig iron production was expected to be about 26,260 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.15%. In April, domestic ferronickel imports totaled about 816,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.38%. In May, Indonesia's ferronickel production was expected to be 142,600 nickel tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase/decrease of 16.9%/ - 0.47%. The cost pressure on ferronickel plants is prominent. [6] 3.2.3 Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained at 27,815 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 30,000 yuan/ton. In June, the expected production of nickel sulfate metal was about 25,425 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 16.61%/ - 2.27%. The production of ternary materials increased slightly, but the demand is expected to have no increment. [7] 3.2.4 Macro and Fundamental Aspects - In the macro - aspect, US economic data is generally good, inflation is in a downward channel, and there are certain results in Sino - US trade negotiations. [7][8] - In the fundamental aspect, on the supply side, the smelting start - up rate has decreased, but the export window is still open. In terms of terminal consumption, the new - energy vehicle market had good sales at the beginning of June, but it is in the off - season, and consumption is difficult to boost significantly. [8][9] 3.3 Industry News - The Philippines' Senate and House of Representatives decided to cancel the nickel ore export ban clause in the final law, and the PNIA welcomed this decision. [12] - ITSS nickel - iron plant's No. 14 furnace was successfully restarted after maintenance. [12] - Sino - US economic and trade consultations achieved new progress, and the two sides reached a consensus on the measures framework to implement the important consensus of the leaders' phone call and consolidate the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks. [12] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides 10 charts, including the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums and discounts, nickel domestic - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless steel prices, and stainless steel inventory. [14][16]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.18%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.93%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for June is 50.18%, down 0.05 percentage points from May, and the demand index remains flat at 49.93%[7] - The ELI index is at -1.06%, down 0.15 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[11] Industrial Production - Major industries' operating rates in June show a seasonal decline, but overall performance is better than the same period last year[7] - The operating rate for PTA is recorded at 83.25%, up 4.62 percentage points from the previous week, and the steel furnace operating rate is at 83.39%, down 0.15 percentage points[15] Exports - June exports are expected to show a slight decline, with key port cargo throughput down 7.95% week-on-week[32] - South Korea's export growth for the first ten days of June is at 5.4%, a significant improvement compared to May[32] Consumption - Weekly average sales of passenger cars are recorded at 42,835 units, a year-on-year increase of 6,825 units, but a month-on-month decrease of 12%[22] - The consumer price index for textiles shows a slight increase, with the Keqiao textile price index at 105.08 points, up 0.02 points from last week[22] Investment - The construction material prices continue to decline, with ordinary Portland cement priced at 302.20 yuan/ton, down 5.90 yuan from the previous week[26] - The land supply area in 100 major cities decreased by 20.84% week-on-week, while the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 11.41%[26] Inflation - The average wholesale price of pork is at 20.33 yuan/kg, down 0.30 yuan from last week, while Brent crude oil prices increased to $69.45 per barrel, up $4.07[38]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating an improvement in economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B increased by 0.14, outperforming historical averages, suggesting a recovery in domestic economic growth[1] - Real estate sector sentiment improved, while investment sentiment declined, and consumption sentiment remained stable[1] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to decrease by approximately 0.5% month-on-month in June, while non-food prices are projected to remain stable, leading to an overall CPI decrease of about 0.1%[2] - The PPI is anticipated to decline by around 0.3% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year drop to -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, indicating a potential upward movement in the ten-year government bond yield and a downward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 20, 2025, is 2.23%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is forecasted to be 3,098.20[20] Key Economic Data - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 4.00%[3] - Retail sales total for the month shows a year-on-year increase of 5.10%[3] - Exports for the month have a year-on-year growth of 4.80%[3] - M2 money supply growth is recorded at 7.90%[3]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.13」 沪锡市场周报 宏观担忧库存下降 预计锡价震荡调整 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 研究员： 添加客服 业务咨询 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾：本周沪锡主力震荡调整，周线涨跌幅为+0.03%，振幅1.83%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价263690元/吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美国5月核心PPI增速创近一年新低，美联储年内两次降息预期升温；美国上周首次申请失业 救济人数略高预期。新华社发文称，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议10日晚在英国伦敦结束。在为期两天的会谈中， 双方进行了坦诚、深入的对话，就各自关心的经贸议题深入交换意见，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩 固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致。基本面，缅甸锡矿复产工作逐步推进，消息称5月底缅甸第一 批佤邦锡矿已经获得出口许可。不过据了解目前缴费办理采矿证的企业不多，多数头部矿贸商都并未缴纳管理费， 预计实际复产进度不及市场预期；刚果Bisie矿山计划 ...

陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 2025 年 6 月 13 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 原油、燃料油期货将震荡偏强 黄金 期货将偏强震荡 纯碱期货再创上市以来新低 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2506 阻力位 3895 和 3905 点，支撑位 3850 和 3841 点；IH2506 阻力位 2689 和 2699 点，支撑位 2664 和 2660 点；IC2506 阻力位 5801 和 5817 点，支撑位 5729 和 5700 点；IM2506 阻力位 6200 和 ...

周四，前美国财政部长耶伦警告称，尽管近期美国通胀呈现放缓趋势，特朗普计划实施的新一轮关税措 施，预计将导致物价上涨，并使美国家庭的平均收入下降。 耶伦表示："我预计，今年同比通胀率将至少上升至3%，甚至略高，主要是由于关税影响。" 这位曾在奥巴马和拜登政府担任重要职务的经济学家指出，尽管特朗普关税计划的细节尚未完全明 确，"目前仍有大量不确定性"，她强调："我几乎可以肯定地说，我们将会看到这些关税推高商品价 格。" 耶伦进一步指出，关税带来的价格上涨将侵蚀消费者购买力，进而压低家庭实际收入。"我看到的最乐 观的估计是，每个美国家庭的收入将因此减少约1000美元。"她补充说，若关税政策扩展或影响更广 泛，"实际损失可能远高于这一数值"。 在周四白宫的活动中，特朗普更是直言不讳地称鲍威尔为"蠢货"，加剧了政界与金融圈之间的紧张气 氛。 耶伦呼吁美联储保持警觉，关注由关税引发的"二轮效应"，包括工资上涨、通胀预期上行等可能加剧整 体通胀的风险。她表示，美联储目前尚无法准确评估关税如何影响劳动力市场支出或整体通胀水平，因 此她预计"美联储将继续保持观望姿态"。 换句话说，尽管政治上对于利率政策存在强烈施压，美联储短期 ...