中游：1）化工：PTA开工率回升；PX开工率近期回落；聚酯、尿素开工率处今年高位。2）基建：沥青开工率来 到近三年低位。 关注5月关税战对上游原材料的影响 中观事件总览 生产行业：4月制造业PMI回落。 1）4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，制 造业景气水平有所回落。从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为49.2%、48.8%和48.7%，比上月下降2.0、1.1 和0.9个百分点，均低于临界点。 服务行业：五一假期旅游消费增长较多。 1）据工信部，一季度，我国规模以上互联网和相关服务企业完成互联 网业务收入4118亿元，同比增长1.4%；规模以上互联网企业研发经费增速加快，共投入研发经费204.5亿元，同比 增长4.6%。2）据文化和旅游部数据中心测算，假期5天全国国内出游3.14亿人次，同比增长6.4%；国内游客出游 总花费1802.69亿元，同比增长8.0%。 数据来源：央视新闻，iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 宏观日报 | 2025-05-07 上游：1）能源：国际油价假期受关税影响回落较多。2）有色：铜、锌、镍受关税影响价格震荡。3）建材：水泥、 ...

美国证券交易委员会（SEC）文件显示，苹果公司于当地时间周一发行四期公司债券，这是该公司两年 来首次进行债务融资，所得资金预计将用于回购股票、偿还未偿债务以及其他用途。发行规模尚未公 布，但据CreditSights分析师预测，苹果此次预计将筹资近50亿至60亿美元。分析师指出，从5月至11 月，苹果有约80亿美元的债务即将到期。 更值得关注的一点是，关税政策的不确定性导致苹果未来将会在成本上大幅增加。在业绩会上，苹果公 司CEO库克透露，在当前关税结构下，苹果将在截至6月的季度产生9亿美元的成本。相关统计数据指 出，关税的不确定性已导致苹果股价今年下跌约15%，市值蒸发逾6000亿美元。 苹果此次发行的债券预计将获得穆迪评级公司的最高等级Aaa，以及标普全球评级公司的次高等级 AA+。 苹果本次发债正值信用利差回升之际。信用利差指的是企业为债务融资所支付的溢价，即相对于美国国 债的利差。自美国总统特朗普宣布对等关税（随后又公布了豁免政策）以来，信用利差有所反弹。 根据最新数据，截至上周五，投资级债券的平均信用利差为106个基点。 分析人士称，随着美联储加息周期接近尾声，当前市场流动性状况及投资者风险偏好将为 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the observation of credit bonds in April 2025, including the issuance, maturity, trading volume, and credit spreads of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds. Overall, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds decreased, while that of industrial bonds increased. The trading volumes of both urban investment bonds and industrial bonds declined, and the credit spreads of both narrowed [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Credit Bond Issuance and Maturity - **Credit Bond Issuance**: As of the end of April 2025, the outstanding balance of credit bonds in China was 29.62 trillion yuan. In April 2025, the issuance of credit bonds was 146.1314 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 20.75%, with a net financing of 23.2001 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The outstanding balance of urban investment bonds was 15.42 trillion yuan. In April 2025, the issuance was 54.938 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 11.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.36%, with a net financing of - 7.1794 billion yuan. Regionally, Jiangsu had the highest issuance. In terms of ratings, AA + and AAA - rated bonds accounted for a large proportion [1][10]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The outstanding balance of industrial bonds was 14.21 trillion yuan. In April 2025, the issuance was 91.1934 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 55.33% and a year - on - year increase of 12.69%, with a net financing of 30.3644 billion yuan. By industry, public utilities had the highest issuance. In terms of ratings, AAA - rated bonds accounted for 88.67% [1][25]. - **Credit Bond Maturity**: - **Urban Investment Bonds**: From May to December 2025, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang had relatively large maturity scales, all exceeding 300 billion yuan [33]. - **Industrial Bonds**: From May to December 2025, public utilities, non - banking finance, real estate, transportation, and building decoration had relatively large maturity scales, all exceeding 300 billion yuan [35]. 3.2 Credit Bond Trading and Spreads - **Credit Bond Trading**: - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In April 2025, the trading volume was 99.5943 billion yuan, showing both month - on - month and year - on - year declines. The turnover rate was 6.46% [2][38]. - **Industrial Bonds**: In April 2025, the trading volume was 138.3813 billion yuan, showing both month - on - month and year - on - year declines. The turnover rate was 9.74% [2][41]. - **Credit Bond Spreads**: - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In April 2025, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds of all levels narrowed compared to the previous month. Regionally, the spreads of different regions and ratings showed different characteristics [2][43]. - **Industrial Bonds**: In April 2025, the credit spreads of industrial bonds of all levels narrowed compared to the previous month. By industry, the spreads of different industries and ratings showed different trends [2][46].

Report Title - "The Divergence of Long - Short Term Spreads - Credit Spread Weekly Report (5/4)" [1][6] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From April 27th to April 30th, most bond yields declined. For 0.5 - 1Y industrial bonds, commercial bank second - tier capital bonds, securities company subordinated bonds, and securities company perpetual bonds, most yields dropped by over 2bp; for 0.5 - 1Y urban investment bonds and commercial financial bonds, most yields decreased by over 1bp; for 2Y industrial bonds and commercial financial bonds, most yields declined by over 1bp; the 2Y securities company subordinated bond yield rose by over 2bp; and the 3 - 5Y commercial financial bond yield dropped by over 2bp. Regarding credit spreads, the 0.5Y industrial bonds and commercial bank second - tier capital bond credit spreads mostly narrowed by over 5bp; the 1Y commercial bank second - tier capital bond credit spread narrowed by over 3bp; the 2Y securities company subordinated bonds and securities company perpetual bond credit spreads widened by over 3bp; and the 5Y urban investment bonds and industrial bond credit spreads mostly widened by over 2bp [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Yield and Spread Overview Yield and Spread of Each Maturity - Treasury bond yields at 0.5Y, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, and 5Y were 1.47%, 1.46%, 1.45%, 1.48%, and 1.52% respectively, with weekly changes of - 3.5bp, 0.9bp, - 2.2bp, - 2.5bp, and - 2.2bp. Their historical quantiles were 11.9%, 13.2%, 8.7%, 6.2%, and 3.9% respectively. Similar data for other bond types such as national development bonds, local government bonds, etc., are also presented in detail [14] Credit Spread and Its Changes for Each Maturity - The 0.5Y, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, and 5Y credit spreads of local government bonds were -, 12.01bp, 13.93bp, 14.34bp, and 14.37bp respectively, with weekly changes of -, 0.1bp, 0.2bp, - 1.5bp, and - 2.8bp. Their historical quantiles were -, 44.9%, 43.7%, 45.1%, and 38.6% respectively. Similar data for other bond types are also provided [16] Credit Bond Yields and Spreads by Category (Hermite Algorithm) Urban Investment Bonds by Region - In terms of yields, from April 27th to April 30th, most provincial urban investment bond yields declined. For example, the 5Y Guizhou urban investment bond yield dropped by about 35bp. In terms of credit spreads, the 0.5 - 1Y urban investment bond credit spreads mostly narrowed; the 2Y urban investment bond credit spreads mostly widened; the 3 - 5Y urban investment bond credit spreads showed differentiation, with the 3 - 5Y Guizhou urban investment bond credit spreads narrowing significantly [7] Industrial Bonds by Industry - From April 27th to April 30th, industrial bond yields generally declined. The 0.5 - 1Y industrial bond credit spreads generally narrowed, the 2 - 3Y industrial bond credit spreads showed differentiation, and the 5Y industrial bond credit spreads generally widened [7] Financial Bonds by Subject - From April 27th to April 30th, financial bond yields generally declined, with the 5Y city commercial bank second - tier capital bond yield dropping by about 55bp. The 0.5 - 1Y financial bond credit spreads generally narrowed, and the 2 - 5Y financial bond credit spreads showed differentiation [7] Credit Bond Yields and Spreads by Category (Balance Average Algorithm) Urban Investment Bonds by Region - Based on the balance average algorithm, from April 27th to April 30th, the 5Y Yunnan urban investment bond could target a return of over 3.2%, and the 5Y Qinghai urban investment bond could target a return of 3.0% or more. The 5Y Yunnan urban investment bond credit spread was significantly higher than that of medium - and short - term bonds, with high riding returns [8] Real Estate Private Enterprise Bonds - From April 27th to April 30th, the yields of real estate private enterprise bonds at all maturities were higher than those of other bond types, and the 0.5 - 1Y real estate private enterprise bond yields dropped by over 17bp [8] Financial Bonds - From April 27th to April 30th, the financial bond credit spreads generally narrowed, and the 3 - 5Y private securities company subordinated bonds could target a return of 4.7% or more [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - From April 21 to April 25, most bond yields increased, and most credit spreads widened. Specifically, the yields of 0.5 - 1Y securities company subordinated bonds rose by more than 3bp, and those of 1Y industrial bonds rose by more than 1bp. The yields of 2 - 3Y urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, commercial bank secondary capital bonds, and securities company ordinary bonds mostly rose by more than 3bp, and those of 2 - 3Y commercial bank perpetual bonds rose by more than 1bp. The yields of 5Y industrial bonds, commercial bank secondary capital bonds, securities company subordinated bonds, and securities company perpetual bonds rose by more than 3bp, and those of 2 - 5Y urban investment bonds mostly rose by more than 4bp. In terms of credit spreads, the credit spreads of 1 - 2Y urban investment bonds and industrial bonds mostly widened by more than 1bp, those of 3Y urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and commercial bank secondary capital bonds mostly widened by more than 2bp, and the credit spreads of 5Y commercial financial bonds narrowed by more than 2bp [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Yield and Spread Overview - **Yields and Changes by Term**: Various bond yields showed different degrees of increase. For example, the yields of government bonds, national development bonds, local government bonds, and various types of corporate bonds all had corresponding upward trends, with different magnitudes of change in different terms. For instance, the 5Y urban commercial bank secondary capital bond yield increased significantly by about 37bp, while the 2 - 3Y state - owned commercial bank financial bond yield decreased significantly [7][12]. - **Spreads and Changes by Term**: Credit spreads also showed different trends. The credit spreads of most bonds widened, but there were also some exceptions, such as the 5Y commercial financial bond credit spread which narrowed by more than 2bp. Different types of bonds and different terms had different degrees of spread change [2][6][14]. Credit Bond Yields and Spreads by Category (Hermite Algorithm) - **Urban Investment Bonds by Region**: The yields of urban investment bonds in most provinces increased, but the 5Y Shanghai urban investment bond yield decreased by about 11bp. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally widened, and the 5Y Guizhou urban investment bond credit spread was significantly higher than that of medium - and short - term bonds, with high riding returns. The performance of AA - rated bonds continued to be differentiated, with high - yield provinces often accompanied by larger credit spreads [7]. - **Industrial Bonds by Industry**: From April 21 to April 25, the yields of industrial bonds generally increased, and the credit spreads generally widened [7]. - **Financial Bonds by Issuer**: The yields of financial bonds generally increased, but the 2 - 3Y state - owned commercial bank financial bond yield decreased significantly, and the credit spread narrowed accordingly. The 5Y urban commercial bank secondary capital bond yield increased significantly by about 37bp, and the credit spread of financial bonds generally widened [7]. Credit Bond Yields and Spreads by Category (Balance Average Algorithm) - **Yields and Spread Differentiation**: From April 21 to April 25, most bond yields increased, and credit spreads were differentiated. The 5Y Guizhou bonds could achieve yields of more than 2.9%, and the 5Y Qinghai/Yunnan bonds could achieve yields of 3.1% and above, with the 5Y Guizhou bond spread significantly higher than that of medium - and short - term bonds, with high riding returns. Except for the obvious differentiation of AA - rated bond yields, there was no significant difference in the yields of the optimal individual bonds of urban investment bonds in provinces with medium - and high implicit ratings. In terms of administrative levels, Guizhou district - level bonds could achieve yields of more than 4.3%, and Yunnan district - level bonds could achieve yields of more than 3.9%. The yields of real - estate private enterprise bonds at all terms were higher than those of other bond types, and the 0.5 - 1Y basic chemical industry yields decreased by more than 12bp. The credit spreads of financial bonds were differentiated, and the yields of 0 - 0.5Y/3 - 5Y private securities company subordinated bonds could achieve 4.0% and above [8].

Group 1: Corporate Fraud Case - A company was found to have inflated its revenue by 1 billion yuan to meet bond issuance requirements, leading to significant financial losses for investors [1] - The case involved fraudulent activities including the use of falsified documents and accounting practices [1] - The company ultimately faced challenges in repaying 150 million yuan in investment funds due to its inability to service bond principal and interest [1] Group 2: Financial Market Overview - In March, the bond market in China issued a total of 87,356.6 billion yuan across various types of bonds, including government bonds, local government bonds, and corporate credit bonds [3] - The issuance included 12,786.3 billion yuan in national bonds, 9,788.0 billion yuan in local government bonds, and 13,335.2 billion yuan in corporate credit bonds [3] Group 3: Special Government Bonds - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the issuance of 81 billion yuan in special long-term government bonds to support consumer goods replacement programs [4] - The initiative aims to alleviate financial pressure on enterprises and ensure that funds reach consumers effectively [4] Group 4: Regional Financial Support - Beijing has approved a plan to extend the loan term for working capital loans to private enterprises up to 10 years, enhancing support for small and micro enterprises [4] - The plan includes increased credit support for first-time loans and renewals for small businesses [4] Group 5: Bond Issuance Activities - Several companies successfully completed bond issuances, including Henan Capital Group with 400 million yuan in bonds at a 2.6% interest rate [5] - Zhengzhou Development Investment Group plans to issue up to 5 billion yuan in bonds, with a maximum term of 10 years [6] - Luoyang Urban-Rural Construction Investment Group issued 500 million yuan in medium-term notes with varying interest rates [7] Group 6: Credit Ratings and Financial Developments - The international long-term issuer rating for Nanyang Investment Group was upgraded from 'BBB+' to 'A-' with a stable outlook [13] - Anhui Communications Control Group Financial Company received approval to establish a financial institution, marking a significant development in state-owned capital management [14] Group 7: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts predict a noticeable decline in net supply of credit bonds after May, with a generally favorable market environment for the bond market [17] - The credit spread is expected to remain stable, with short-term credit spreads likely to stay low [17]

▍ 上 周债市震荡偏弱。 2 0 2 5年4月2 1日至2 0 2 5年4月2 5日，债市震荡偏弱。1 0年期国债收益率从上周的1 . 6 4 9 3%变动至1 . 6 6 0 6%；1 0年期国开债收益 率从上周的1 . 6 8 1 0%变动至1 . 6 9 6 1%；TS、TF、T、TL主力合约收盘价分别变动- 0 . 1 5 /- 0 . 3 0 /- 0 . 2 6 /- 0 . 0 2元。 文 ｜ 明明 周成华 丘远航 赵诣 在贸易冲突背景下，预计从4月PMI开始，数据层面将逐步反映压力，适时降准降息时点临近，收益率曲线先牛陡后牛平的概率 更大。 ▍ 风险因素： 美国关税政策继续反复；货币政策、财政政策超预期；央行公开市场操作投放超预期；信用违约事件频发等。 本文节选自中信证券研究部已于 2025年4月27日 发布的《 每周债券策略聚焦20250426—适时降准降息窗口临近 》报告，具体分析内容（包括相关风险提示等）请详见报告。若因对报 告的摘编而产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为准。 ▍ 具体看单日表现。 周一，LPR维持不变，现券收益率有所上行。周二，税 期尾声，资金利率回落，债市修复。周三 ...

Group 1 - The overall performance of credit bonds remains weak, with credit spreads showing a slight upward trend despite a balanced and loose funding environment [1][11][13] - The total market size of wealth management products reached 30.84 trillion yuan as of April 20, 2025, reflecting an increase of 1.82 trillion yuan since the end of March, indicating a significant growth compared to the same period in previous years [2][16] - Wealth management has shifted its investment direction, showing increased buying power for secondary capital bonds and commercial paper, while the buying interest for certificates of deposit has decreased [3][20] Group 2 - The demand for credit bonds is expected to improve, supported by wealth management needs and allocation forces, although the pace and types of bonds require careful consideration [4][27] - The issuance of credit bonds totaled 537.2 billion yuan during the week, with a net financing of 114.8 billion yuan, indicating a stable issuance environment [32][34] - The supply of urban investment bonds continues to be tight, with a net outflow of 409 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease in net financing compared to previous weeks [43][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the central bank achieved a net injection of 774 billion yuan, leading to a marginal easing of the capital market. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond active bond continued to fluctuate around the 1.65% central level, pricing in an expected interest rate cut of about 30BP. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond may still return above 1.7% this year [2][42]. - Overall, the credit spreads of various industries fluctuated slightly this week. For urban investment bonds, it is recommended to focus on short - duration moderate credit - risk exposure for coupon income and also pay attention to the convex points in the 3 - 5Y term structure to increase returns. For industrial bonds, the short - end credit spreads compressed slightly while the long - end widened slightly. It is advisable to continue to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads fluctuated slightly, with fluctuations within 3BP for different terms and ratings. It is recommended to focus on short - duration and highly liquid varieties for defense and capture the riding income at the convex points of the term structure of AA and AA+ bank secondary capital bonds [2][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 435.5 billion yuan this week, a week - on - week increase of 255.1 billion yuan. The total issuance was 751.5 billion yuan, up 299.4 billion yuan week - on - week, and the total repayment was 316 billion yuan, up 44.3 billion yuan week - on - week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 36.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 11.3 billion yuan [6]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 30.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 37.3 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 188.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 60.5 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 216.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 231.8 billion yuan [6]. 3.1.2 Issuance Cost - Except for the issuance rates of AAA financial bonds and AA+ urban investment bonds, which increased, the issuance rates of other rated credit bonds decreased to varying degrees. Specifically, the issuance rates of AA - rated urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased by 3BP and 12BP respectively compared with last week; the issuance rate of AA+ - rated industrial bonds decreased by 11BP; and the issuance rates of AA+ - rated urban investment bonds and AAA - rated financial bonds increased by 4BP and 7BP respectively compared with last week [14]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Trading Volume and Turnover - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 11.7 billion yuan week - on - week. By product type, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 254.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 12.3 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 363.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 6.4 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 369.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5.8 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 2.11 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 billion yuan [15]. - The turnover rate of credit bonds fluctuated slightly compared with last week. Specifically, the turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.62%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points; that of industrial bonds was 2.16%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points; that of financial bonds was 2.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points; and that of asset - backed securities was 0.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 percentage points [16]. 3.2.2 Yield - The yields of credit bonds with different terms and ratings increased to varying degrees this week. In AA+ - rated credit bonds, the yields of 7 - 10Y and over 10Y increased by more than 5BP; in AAA - rated credit bonds, the yield of 7 - 10Y increased by more than 5BP. Except for the yield of AA+ credit bonds below 1Y, which decreased by less than 1BP compared with last week, the yields of other term and rating credit bonds increased by no more than 5BP [20][21]. 3.2.3 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of various industries fluctuated slightly this week. In AA - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of non - bank finance and public utilities widened by 7BP and 5BP respectively compared with last week; in AA+ - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of electronics and pharmaceutical biology widened by 7BP and 5BP respectively; in AAA - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of leisure services, national defense and military industry, household appliances, and automobiles widened by 5BP, 5BP, 6BP, and 5BP respectively. In addition, the credit spread of the AA+ chemical industry narrowed by 5BP, and that of the AAA real estate industry narrowed by 7BP. The credit spreads of different ratings in other industries fluctuated by less than 5BP compared with last week [24]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The credit spreads of urban investment bonds widened this week, with the long - end widening more than the short - end. By region, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds in most regions widened, while those in a few regions narrowed slightly. The top five regions with the highest credit spreads of AA - rated, AA+ - rated, and AAA - rated urban investment bonds were listed respectively [28][29]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The credit spreads of industrial bonds showed a pattern of slight compression at the short - end and slight widening at the long - end this week. It is recommended to continue to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips [32]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: The credit spreads of bank capital bonds fluctuated slightly this week, with fluctuations within 3BP for different terms and ratings. The overall pattern was slight compression at the short - end and slight widening at the long - end. It is recommended to focus on short - duration and highly liquid varieties for defense and capture the riding income at the convex points of the term structure [36]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Public Opinions - On March 28, 2025, AVIC Industry Finance Holdings Co., Ltd. announced its plan to delist from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and transfer to the National Equities Exchange and Quotations. This led to a downgrade of the implied ratings of a total of 65 bonds issued by AVIC Industry Finance and its subsidiaries [40]. - Other negative public opinions included the downgrade of the implied ratings of "17 Chaoyang Bank Secondary" and "16 Chaoyang Bank Secondary" issued by Chaoyang Bank Co., Ltd., the extension of "20 Tianqian 02" issued by Hubei Tianqian Asset Management Co., Ltd., and the extension of "H20 Xinyuan 1" and "H21 Xinyuan 1" issued by Xinyuan (China) Real Estate Co., Ltd. [2][44].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Credit bond yields have followed the upward trend, and credit spreads have slightly widened again. This week, interest rates have generally fluctuated upward, and credit bond yields have generally followed suit. Except for the AA- credit bonds with 1Y and 5Y tenors, the spreads of other varieties have rebounded [2][5]. - The spreads of urban investment bonds have increased, with higher-grade varieties showing a relatively larger increase. This week, the spreads of urban investment bonds have generally increased, with the spreads of external subject-rated AAA platforms increasing by 3BP, and those of AA+ and AA platforms increasing by 1BP [2][9]. - The spreads of industrial bonds have diverged, and the spreads of private real estate bonds have continued to rise. This week, the spreads of central and state-owned enterprise real estate bonds have slightly increased by 2 - 3BP, the spreads of mixed-ownership real estate bonds have significantly decreased by 124BP, and the spreads of private real estate bonds have increased by 44BP [2][18]. - The spreads of secondary perpetual bonds have adjusted slightly upward, with a slightly higher increase in the 3 - 5Y tenors. This week, secondary perpetual bonds have adjusted, and their spreads have slightly increased, with a relatively higher increase in the 3 - 5Y tenors [2][27]. - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds have basically remained flat, while the excess spreads of urban investment perpetual bonds have increased. This week, the excess spreads of industrial AAA3Y perpetual bonds have slightly increased by 0.01BP to 9.21BP, and those of urban investment AAA3Y and AAA5Y perpetual bonds have increased [2][29]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Credit Bond Yields Follow the Upward Trend, and Credit Spreads Slightly Widen Again - Interest rates have generally fluctuated upward. The yields of 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds have increased by 2BP, 3BP, 1BP, and 2BP respectively, while the yield of 1Y bonds has remained basically the same as last week [5]. - Credit bond yields have generally followed the upward trend. The yield of 1Y AA- credit bonds has decreased by 1BP, while the yields of other varieties have increased by 2BP; the yields of 3Y credit bonds of all grades have increased by 5 - 6BP; the yields of 5Y AAA and AA- credit bonds have increased by 1 - 3BP, and those of AA+ and AA varieties have increased by 5 - 6BP; the yields of 7Y credit bonds of all grades have increased by 3 - 4BP; the yields of 10Y bonds of all grades have increased by 5 - 6BP [5]. - Credit spreads have shown a mixed trend. Except for the slightly decreased spreads of 1Y and 5Y AA- credit bonds, the spreads of other varieties have rebounded. The spreads of 1Y AA- credit bonds have decreased by 1BP, while those of other varieties have increased by 2BP; the spreads of 3Y credit bonds of all grades have increased by 3 - 4BP; the spreads of 5Y AA- varieties have decreased by 2BP, while those of other varieties have increased by 1 - 3BP; the spreads of 7Y bonds of all grades have increased by 2 - 3BP; the spreads of 10Y bonds of all grades have increased by 3 - 4BP [5]. - Rating spreads and term spreads have shown a divergent trend. Most rating spreads have slightly decreased, and term spreads have shown different trends among different grades and tenors [5]. II. The Spreads of Urban Investment Bonds Increase, with Higher-Grade Varieties Showing a Relatively Larger Increase - Overall, the spreads of urban investment bonds have increased. The spreads of external subject-rated AAA platforms have increased by 3BP, and those of AA+ and AA platforms have increased by 1BP [9]. - Provincial AAA platform spreads: Most have increased by 1 - 3BP, with Tianjin, Xinjiang, and Shanxi increasing by 4 - 5BP [9]. - AA+ platform spreads: Most have increased by 0 - 1BP, with Jilin and Guizhou increasing by 8BP, and Yunnan, Heilongjiang, and Shaanxi decreasing by 5BP, 2BP, and 1BP respectively [9]. - AA platform spreads: Most have increased by 0 - 2BP, with Hunan and Liaoning increasing by 3BP, and Shaanxi and Shandong decreasing by 7BP and 3BP respectively [9]. - By administrative level: The spreads of provincial, municipal, and district-level platforms have increased by 3BP, 2BP, and 1BP respectively. Most provincial platform spreads have increased by 1 - 3BP, with Shanxi increasing by 8BP, and Shaanxi and Tianjin increasing by 5BP; most municipal platform spreads in various regions have increased by 1 - 2BP, with Jilin increasing by 7BP, and the spreads in Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Yunnan, and Guizhou decreasing by 1 - 5BP; most district-level platform spreads in various regions have remained flat or increased by 1 - 2BP, with Liaoning increasing by 3BP, Guizhou decreasing by 9BP, and Shaanxi decreasing by 4BP [15]. III. The Spreads of Industrial Bonds Diverge, and the Spreads of Private Real Estate Bonds Continue to Rise - The spreads of industrial bonds have shown a divergent trend. The spreads of central and state-owned enterprise real estate bonds have slightly increased by 2 - 3BP, the spreads of mixed-ownership real estate bonds have significantly decreased by 124BP (Vanke's spreads have decreased by 278BP), and the spreads of private real estate bonds have increased by 44BP (Longfor's spreads have decreased by 27BP, Midea Real Estate and Huafa Co., Ltd.'s spreads have remained flat, and CIFI's spreads have increased by 563BP) [18]. - The spreads of coal and steel bonds of all grades have increased by 1 - 2BP; the spreads of AAA-grade chemical bonds have decreased by 5BP, and those of AA+ have decreased by 13BP. The spreads of Shaanxi Coal have increased by 3BP, those of Jinkong Coal Industry have increased by 2BP, and those of HBIS have increased by 2BP [18]. IV. The Spreads of Secondary Perpetual Bonds Slightly Increase, with a Slightly Higher Increase in the 3 - 5Y Tenors - This week, secondary perpetual bonds have adjusted, and their spreads have slightly increased, with a relatively higher increase in the 3 - 5Y tenors. Specifically, the yields of 1Y medium- and high-grade commercial bank secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds have increased by 0 - 1BP, the yield of AA-grade secondary capital bonds has increased by 2BP, and the spreads of 1Y secondary perpetual bonds have generally increased by 0 - 2BP. The yields of 3Y secondary capital bonds have increased by 5 - 6BP, and the spreads have increased by 3 - 4BP; the yields of 3Y AAA- and AA+-grade perpetual bonds have increased by 4BP, and that of AA has increased by 2BP, with the spreads of 3Y perpetual bonds increasing by 0 - 2BP. The yields of 5Y secondary capital bonds have increased by 4 - 5BP, and the spreads have increased by 1 - 2BP; the yields of 5Y perpetual bonds have increased by 2 - 4BP, and the spreads have increased by 0 - 2BP [27]. V. The Excess Spreads of Industrial Perpetual Bonds Basically Remain Flat, while the Excess Spreads of Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds Increase - This week, the excess spreads of industrial AAA3Y perpetual bonds have slightly increased by 0.01BP to 9.21BP, at the 9.83% quantile since 2015; the excess spreads of industrial AAA5Y perpetual bonds have remained the same as last week at 8.72BP, at the 6.53% quantile since 2015; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA3Y perpetual bonds have increased by 0.75BP to 8.99BP, at the 9.68% quantile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA5Y perpetual bonds have increased by 1.19BP to 10.92BP, at the 10.12% quantile [29]. VI. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank secondary perpetual spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium- and short-term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015; the credit spreads related to urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015 [36]. - The credit spreads of industrial and urban investment individual bonds are calculated as the individual bond's ChinaBond valuation (exercise) minus the yield to maturity of the same-term China Development Bank bond (calculated by linear interpolation method), and finally the credit spreads of the industry or regional urban investment are obtained by the arithmetic mean method [36]. - The excess spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds are calculated as the credit spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds minus the credit spreads of bank ordinary bonds of the same grade and term; the excess spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds are calculated as the credit spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds minus the credit spreads of medium-term notes of the same grade and term [37]. - Sample selection criteria: Industrial and urban investment bonds both select medium-term notes and public corporate bond samples, and exclude guaranteed bonds and perpetual bonds; if the remaining term of an individual bond is less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years, it will be excluded from the statistical sample; industrial and urban investment bonds are both externally subject-rated, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implicit bond ratings [38].