Core Viewpoints - The static forecast indicates that the old-caliber M1 is expected to decline from 6.2% in September to around 3.4% by the end of the year, while M2 is projected to decrease from 8.4% in September to approximately 8.0% by year-end, both remaining higher than the end of 2024 [2] - The analysis framework for M1 and M2 growth involves understanding the components of M1 as part of M2, with M1 being derived from M2 minus other currencies [7][17] Group 1: M2 Growth Factors - M2 growth is influenced by five main factors: corporate leverage, household leverage, foreign exchange derivation, government leverage, and other factors [8][20] - The forecast for M2 growth indicates a decline of 900 billion, with M2 expected to decrease to around 8.0% by year-end due to factors such as reduced government leverage and a decline in corporate loans [8][22][28] Group 2: M1 Growth Analysis - The old-caliber M1 is expected to decline by 1.6 trillion year-on-year, with a forecasted drop to 3.4% by year-end, influenced by factors such as a decrease in household deposits and a stable level of non-bank deposits [9][10][52] - The analysis of other currencies shows that household deposits are expected to decrease by 620 billion, while non-bank deposits are projected to increase by 1.9 trillion [46][47] Group 3: Impacts on Capital Markets - Changes in M1 are seen as leading indicators for price improvements, with M1 growth typically preceding changes in PPI and industrial product inventory by three to four quarters [54] - Non-bank deposits are closely linked to trading volumes in the financial market, with higher non-bank deposits correlating with increased trading activity [55] - The relationship between corporate and household deposits can predict corporate profits and ten-year treasury yields approximately one year in advance [57] Group 4: Potential Scenarios for M1 Changes - Several scenarios for potential M1 changes in Q4 are proposed, including increased corporate loans and infrastructure investment, which could lead to upward pressure on M1 and M2 [63] - Another scenario suggests that a decrease in M2 and household deposits, alongside an increase in corporate deposits, could indicate improved economic cycles and profitability [64]

Economic Performance - In September, industrial enterprises' profits increased by 21.6% year-on-year, marking the highest level since December 2023[2] - The revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises in September was 2.7%, accelerating by 0.8 percentage points from August[3] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 26.8% in September, contributing 6.1 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[2] Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy has led to improved revenue and profit levels for industrial enterprises, with a notable reduction in price wars[3] - The manufacturing PMI for October was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating contraction in several key indices[3] Production and Capacity Utilization - The average operating rate for asphalt enterprises rose to 31.15%, up 0.4 percentage points week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8%[8] - The capacity utilization rate for steel mills was 85.21%, up 0.18 percentage points week-on-week, but down 1.6% year-on-year[42] Price Trends - The average price of cement in East China remained stable at 438 RMB/ton, while in Southwest China, it increased by 23 RMB/ton to 516 RMB/ton[100] - The price of rebar increased by 39.4 RMB/ton to 3265.8 RMB/ton, reflecting upward pressure in the steel market[109] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and global economic downturns impacting industrial growth[3]

单季度数据显示，第三季度公司实现营业收入129.04亿元，同比下降24.05%；归属于上市公司股东的净 利润-9.73亿元，亏损较二季度进一步收窄，呈现减亏趋势。 据披露，2025年前三季度，晶澳科技实现营业收入368.09亿元，较上年同期下降32.27%；归属于上市公 司股东的净利润为-35.53亿元。截至三季度末，公司总资产1053.80亿元，归属于上市公司股东的净资产 231.74亿元。 11月3日，晶澳太阳能科技股份有限公司（下称"晶澳科技"）以电话会议形式召开业绩说明会，接待了 泰信基金、高盛、瑞银、富瑞、长江证券、国泰海通、中金公司等13家机构的调研。公司董事、副总经 理杨爱青，财务负责人李少辉，光伏事业群总裁郭亚菲，董事会秘书秦世龙出席会议，就2025年前三季 度经营业绩、行业趋势及公司战略布局等核心问题与机构投资者展开交流。 经营业绩：三季度亏损环比收窄 出货量稳居行业前列 储能业务方面，公司今年已实现出货突破，产品覆盖户用、工商业及大型储能全场景。目前已组建自主 设计团队及售前售后团队，经营模式上选择战略合作伙伴，通过联合开发等方式推进业务落地，加速储 能板块布局。 组件价格逐步改善 明年二 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Index Monthly Report [1] - Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, Huang Wenxin, He Zhuoqiao [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In October, the new round of Sino-US game became the main factor affecting the market. The overall A-share market oscillated. After the Sino-US leaders' meeting in Busan, South Korea, although the negotiation results sent positive signals, the market weakened after the positive news landed due to over - inflated market expectations. The Fed cut interest rates in October, but the post - meeting statement was slightly hawkish, and the probability of a December rate cut declined. The economic data in September showed increased fundamental pressure, and policies were needed to boost the economy. With the easing of the external environment and the "15th Five - Year Plan" injecting new policy expectations into the market, the stock index is expected to continue its medium - to long - term strong trend after short - term shock consolidation at the key pressure level of 4,000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index. The market style should still focus on the dumbbell strategy, with balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Market行情回顾 - Since the beginning of the year, the A - share market has shown a trend of "short - term correction followed by a strong run, and a rebound after a sharp decline due to external shocks". Before the Spring Festival, the market was cautious due to uncertainties after the new US president took office. After the Spring Festival, the technology sector led the market under the influence of positive news. In late March, the market corrected again due to approaching the annual report disclosure period. After the US announced "reciprocal tariffs" in April, the A - share market broke through the support level. Then, with factors such as "national team" funds and better - than - expected Sino - US tariff negotiations, the index rebounded. After the "anti - involution" policy and the trillion - level infrastructure project of the Yajiang Hydropower Station, relevant concept sectors rotated and rose. After the "9·3 Parade", the market became cautious, and the index consolidated at a high level [8]. - In October, the Sino - US game affected the market. The overall A - share market oscillated. After the US softened its stance, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4,000 points. After the negotiation results in Malaysia and the leaders' meeting in South Korea were finalized, the market became cautious again, and the index slightly corrected. In October, the Wind All - A Index slightly declined by 0.03%. Among the major broad - based indices, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.85%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.10%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.56%, and the small and medium - cap index fell 1.15%. In terms of market style, the stable and financial sectors led the rise, while the growth sector led the decline [9]. 1.2 Industry Sector Situation - In October, among the CSI 300 sub - industries, the energy, utilities, and materials sectors led the rise, with increases of 9.50%, 4.35%, and 3.48% respectively, while the pharmaceutical, information, and real estate sectors led the decline, with decreases of 7.28%, 3.93%, and 3.80% respectively. Among the CSI 500 sub - industries, the utilities, energy, and raw materials sectors led the rise, with increases of 7.85%, 4.06%, and 2.46% respectively, while the real estate, communication, and optional consumption sectors led the decline, with decreases of 11.24%, 5.11%, and 4.94% respectively. At the first - level industry level, the coal, steel, and non - ferrous metal sectors led the rise, with increases of 10.02%, 5.16%, and 5.00% respectively, while the media, beauty care, and automobile sectors declined, with decreases of 6.04%, 3.84%, and 3.58% respectively [15]. 1.3 Valuation Comparison - As of October 31, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.1146, 11.7732, 33.3983, and 47.5311 times respectively, changing by - 0.3007, - 0.0916, - 2.4316, and - 0.9139 compared with the beginning of the month, and were at the 83.66%, 87.82%, 79.06%, and 76.34% percentile levels in the past ten years respectively [25]. 2. Futures Indicator Analysis 2.1 Transaction and Position Analysis - In October, the trading volume of stock index futures decreased. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 13.61, 6.33, 15.42, and 24.38 million lots respectively, decreasing by 1.93, 0.24, 0.63, and 3.98 million lots compared with the previous month. The positions of stock index futures mainly decreased. The average daily positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 26.75, 9.80, 25.44, and 35.98 million lots respectively, changing by - 0.77, - 0.35, 0.15, and - 1.76 million lots compared with the previous month [26]. 2.2 Basis Analysis - As of October 31, the basis discounts of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 main contracts narrowed, increasing by 13.43, 33.37, and 30.29 respectively compared with the end of September to - 9.27, - 88.60, and - 138.47. The basis premium of the SSE 50 main contract widened, increasing by 3.58 to 3.65 compared with the end of September. In terms of the annualized basis rate, as of October 31, the annualized basis rate of the CSI 300 main contract was - 1.47%, increasing by 1.17 percentage points compared with the end of September; the annualized basis rate of the SSE 50 main contract was 0.89%, increasing by 1.01 percentage points compared with the end of September; the annualized basis rate of the CSI 500 main contract was - 8.88%, decreasing by 1.86 percentage points compared with the end of September; the annualized basis rate of the CSI 1000 main contract was - 13.55%, decreasing by 4.80 percentage points compared with the end of September. Overall, the discount of the IF main contract narrowed, the IH main contract changed from a discount to a premium, and the discounts of the IC and IM main contracts widened [28]. 2.3 Cross - Variety Spread Analysis - In October, large - cap blue - chip stocks performed relatively better. As of October 31, the CSI 300/SSE 50 ratio was 1.5410, at the 95.00% historical percentile level, decreasing by 0.0117 compared with the end of September; the CSI 1000/CSI 500 ratio was 1.0240, at the 29.40% historical percentile level, increasing by 0.0020 compared with the end of September; the CSI 300/CSI 1000 ratio was 0.6182, at the 38.10% historical percentile level, increasing by 0.0056 compared with the end of September; the SSE 50/CSI 1000 ratio was 0.4012, at the 30.80% historical percentile level, increasing by 0.0066 compared with the end of September [43]. 3. Macroeconomic Tracking 3.1 Sino - US New Round of Tariff Game, Leaders' Meeting as Market Sentiment Turning Point - Before the end of September, the Sino - US trade situation was generally easing, and a preliminary agreement was reached on the TikTok issue. In early October, the game between the two sides escalated unexpectedly. The US announced a series of measures, and China counterattacked. In the middle of the month, the US attitude softened, and the domestic capital market sentiment reversed. At the end of the month, the Sino - US leaders met in Busan, South Korea, and reached consensus on multiple issues. However, the market weakened after the positive news landed [44][45][49]. 3.2 Fed's Interest Rate Cut in October, Post - Meeting Statement Slightly Hawkish - On October 30, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, which was in line with market expectations. Fed Chairman Powell said that the December interest rate cut path was not preset, and the market interpreted it as hawkish. The probability of a December rate cut declined, and gold and US stocks oscillated lower in the short term [50]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data Analysis: Economic Slowdown in Q3, Widening Gap between Domestic and External Demand in September, Policy Boost Needed - In Q3, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points lower than in Q2, indicating increased economic growth pressure. From the perspective of the production method, the year - on - year growth rates of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries were 4.0%, 4.2%, and 5.4% respectively. From the perspective of the expenditure method, the contributions of final consumption expenditure, capital formation, and net exports to the economy in Q3 were 56.6%, 18.9%, and 24.5% respectively. In September, the gap between domestic and external demand widened further, and the cumulative investment growth rate turned negative. The domestic demand slowed down, while the external demand accelerated. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative, and the decline in real estate investment continued to expand [51][52]. 3.4 Liquidity Analysis: Margin Trading Balance Continuously Breaking Through, Slowdown in Household Deposit Transfer in September, Possibly Affected by Market Volatility - In October, the new social financing scale was 3.53 trillion yuan, 233.9 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.70%. The new RMB loans were 1608.1 billion yuan, 366.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year. M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year. In the stock market, margin trading funds continued to drive the market up in October, but the growth rate slowed down. As of October 30, the A - share margin trading balance was 2499.048 billion yuan, an increase of 104.932 billion yuan compared with the end of September, with the increment decreasing by 62.457 billion yuan compared with the previous month. The proportion of A - share margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 11.45% as of October 30, a decrease of 0.38 percentage points compared with the end of September, at the 97.65% percentile level in the past ten years. Since September, market volatility has intensified, leading to a slowdown in household deposit transfer [63][72]. 4. Market Outlook and Trading Strategies - Externally, after the Sino - US leaders' meeting in Busan, South Korea, although the negotiation results were positive, the market weakened after the positive news landed. Domestically, the economic data in September showed increased fundamental pressure, and policies were needed to boost the economy. The "15th Five - Year Plan" provided policy guidance for the future market style. In terms of liquidity, the margin trading balance continued to break through historical highs and was currently oscillating at a high level. Future Fed rate cuts may bring new liquidity, but the slowdown in household deposit transfer needs further observation. Overall, with the easing of the external environment and the new policy expectations injected by the "15th Five - Year Plan", the stock index is expected to continue its medium - to long - term strong trend after short - term shock consolidation at the key pressure level of 4,000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index. The market style should still focus on the dumbbell strategy, with balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500 [73]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The construction materials industry is currently at a cyclical bottom in terms of profitability, with leading companies in various segments performing in line with expectations. For instance, China Jushi in the fiberglass sector has seen a significant year-on-year improvement in profitability, while companies like Rabbit Baby have also reported substantial profit improvements due to investment income. Other leading companies such as Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Qibin Group, and Jianlang Hardware are also showing signs of bottoming out in their fundamentals. It is anticipated that stock prices may break out of the bottom range under the influence of policy catalysts and market style shifts [4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Cement - Demand for cement has shown a slight month-on-month improvement, primarily due to infrastructure projects and better weather conditions, although year-on-year demand remains down. The overall demand is still in a weak recovery phase, influenced by weather disruptions and the pace of demand release. In September 2025, the monthly cement production was 154 million tons, down 8.6% year-on-year [5][10] Glass - The glass industry is experiencing a continuous decline in demand due to the impact of real estate. Short-term demand during the traditional peak season has shown limited improvement, and inventory levels among intermediaries remain relatively high. The supply-demand imbalance persists, with limited improvement in downstream terminal demand. The industry is expected to face increased environmental requirements and costs, accelerating the pace of cold repairs [5][17] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is witnessing a price recovery, with price increases of 5%-10% reported. The demand for electronic yarns is driven by the AI industry, leading to a significant increase in both volume and price. The demand is expected to continue growing alongside AI developments [6] Consumer Building Materials - The profitability of the consumer building materials sector has reached a bottom, with prices having no further downward space after years of competition. The sector is strongly advocating for price increases and profitability improvements, with several categories like waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum boards issuing price increase notices this year. A recovery in profitability is anticipated for leading companies in the second half of the year [6] Recent Company Announcements - Conch Cement reported Q3 revenue of 20 billion yuan, down 11.4% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 3.4% year-on-year to 1.94 billion yuan, benefiting from cost reductions and improved gross margins. Q3 revenue for Qibin Group was 4.39 billion yuan, up 18.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 20 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [19][20][22]

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a rebound led by technology stocks, with significant gains in solar energy and storage chip sectors, indicating a positive market sentiment and potential investment opportunities [1][2][6] Solar Energy Sector - The solar equipment sector experienced strong performance, with major players like Sungrow Power increasing by over 5%, reaching a market capitalization of approximately 413.5 billion yuan and a trading volume of 19.685 billion yuan, making it the top stock in A-shares [2] - The Chinese Photovoltaic Industry Association highlighted the importance of a recent announcement regarding the dynamic management of companies in the solar manufacturing sector, which is expected to guide high-quality industry development [5] - Recent policies aimed at reducing unhealthy competition in the solar industry are anticipated to enhance the competitive landscape and support profit recovery [5] Storage Chip Sector - The storage chip sector showed strength, with companies like Shannon Chip Technology rising over 8% and reaching a historical high [6] - The price of storage chips has surged recently due to supply-demand imbalances, with major manufacturers reducing production of older technologies to focus on higher-value products, leading to a tightening supply of mature DRAM [8] - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and other advanced storage solutions has skyrocketed due to increased AI computing needs, further exacerbating supply constraints [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - After the macro events such as the China-US summit and the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market's positive factors have been fully realized. However, the Fed has released a hawkish guidance, which exerts downward pressure on risk assets in Q4. The domestic economy still faces significant pressure, with the manufacturing PMI hitting a new low, indicating insufficient demand. But the incremental fiscal funds are expected to support the economy [4]. - The domestic economic data continues to be weak, especially in the consumption and real estate sectors. The high-frequency real estate sales data has declined significantly without incremental positive policies. The export orders shown by the PMI have dropped sharply, related to the end of the rush to export. The anti-involution policy is being promoted, resulting in a weak supply and demand in the real economy [4]. - The domestic liquidity is generally loose, with the government debt financing rising continuously and the marginal increase in open market money supply. The short-term liquidity is neutral, but the credit impulse in Q4 is marginally tightening. Passive ETF funds continue to be subscribed, and margin trading funds continue to flow in stably. The reduction intensity of industrial capital has slowed down. Overseas liquidity is marginally tightening under the Fed's hawkish guidance, and foreign capital has a marginal outflow tendency. The overall supply and demand of market funds are relatively optimistic, but there are also some differences, so beware of the risk of high-level style switching [4]. - After a sharp short-term rise, the valuations of various indices have reached relatively high levels in history. The stock-bond risk premiums at home and abroad are low, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - Currently, the broad-based index market has high valuations, especially the growth style. The risk premium indices at home and abroad have dropped to low levels, and the attractiveness of the stock market has decreased marginally. With the large market scale, the limited liquidity is difficult to drive continuous growth. After the short-term macro positive factors are fully realized, the market enters a policy vacuum period. With the marginal support of fiscal funds for the economy in Q4, the overall macro fluctuations are expected to be small. The market may maintain a high-level range-bound trend, similar to that in Q4 last year. Focus on structural opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a high-sell and low-buy strategy for stock indices in November. Consider shorting IF, IC, and IM stock indices in the high-rebound area and going long on IF and IH stock indices in the sharp-drop low area. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on the cyclical style and shorting the growth style [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In the past month, among global stock markets, the Nikkei 225 led the rise, while the Hang Seng Tech Index led the decline. Among domestic stock markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.85%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 4.05% [8][9]. - In the past month, among industries, coal led the rise, while media led the decline [12]. - In the past month, the basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.19%, 0.14%, -0.35%, and 0.65% respectively. The discounts of IC and IM widened, while the discounts of IF and IH narrowed slightly. The changes in the inter - period spreads of the four major stock index futures were generally small, but the long - term discounts of IC and IM widened significantly [18]. Fund Flow - In October, margin trading funds flowed in 104.93 billion yuan to reach 2.5 trillion yuan, and the proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased by 0.08% to 2.58%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 3.73373 trillion yuan, an increase of 125.81 billion yuan from the previous month. The share was 211.724 billion shares, with a subscription of 76.25 billion shares from the previous month, and a subscription of 5.89 billion shares in the latest week, with the scale increasing by 15.36 billion yuan [21]. - In October, equity financing was 49.44 billion yuan, with 6 companies. IPO financing was 12.16 billion yuan, private placement was 37.27 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 5.48 billion yuan. The equity financing scale decreased significantly, mainly due to the reduction in private placement. The market value of restricted - share lifting in October was 246.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.14 billion yuan from the previous month, mainly due to the one - week less trading time during the National Day holiday. The reduction scale in the recent week decreased marginally, with the monthly - annualized scale dropping to 211.28 billion yuan [24]. Liquidity - In October, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase expired 5.8572 trillion yuan, with a reverse repurchase issuance of 5.2761 trillion yuan, resulting in a net money withdrawal of 58.11 billion yuan. The liquidity in the open - market business tightened. The MLF issued 900 billion yuan and expired 700 billion yuan in October, with a net issuance of 20 billion yuan. The MLF has had a net issuance for 8 consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply is neutral to loose [26]. - In October, the DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by 1.7bp, - 12.6bp, and - 5.8bp respectively to 1.46%, 1.41%, and 1.32%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 8.5bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 2.1bp to 1.64%. The capital supply tended to be loose, and the debt financing demand was strong. The capital price generally fluctuated at a low level [32]. - In October, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond changed by - 8.1bp, the 5 - year Treasury bond yield changed by - 5.6bp, and the 2 - year Treasury bond yield changed by - 10.9bp. The 10 - year CDB bond yield changed by - 11.1bp, the 5 - year CDB bond yield changed by - 7.3bp, and the 2 - year CDB bond yield changed by - 6.8bp. Overall, the yield term structure steepened slightly in October, and both long - and short - term interest rates decreased significantly, mainly due to the weak economic data and the decline in financing demand. The credit spread between Treasury bonds and CDB bonds narrowed significantly at the long end, indicating a cooling of the broad - credit expectation [36]. - As of October 31, the 10 - year US Treasury bond rate changed by - 5.0bp to 4.11%, the inflation expectation changed by - 6.0bp to 2.30%, and the real interest rate changed by 1.00bp to 1.81%. The risk asset prices were first boosted and then suppressed by the financial conditions. The 10 - 2Y spread of US Treasury bonds changed by - 5.00bp to 51.00bp. The inversion of the China - US interest rate spread widened slightly by 1.12bp to - 231.42bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.11%. The US dollar against the RMB fluctuated at a level below the mid - point of the three - year range [39]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - As of October 30, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.074 million square meters, a slight decrease from the previous week's 2.101 million square meters, returning to a relatively low level in the same period. Compared with the same period in 2019 before the pandemic, it decreased by 45.4%. The second - hand housing sales decreased seasonally and significantly from the previous month, returning to a relatively low level in the past seven years. The real estate market sales showed a weak performance overall, with the sales center oscillating at a low level, and there were signs of marginal acceleration of weakening in the short term [43]. - As of October 31, the weekly average daily subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities in China remained at a high level, reaching 83.8 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and a 32% increase compared with the same period in 2021. The economic activity in the service industry heated up marginally. The traffic congestion delay index in 100 cities rebounded from the previous week, remaining at a neutral level in the past three years. Overall, the economic activity in the service industry tended to a natural and stable growth level, with insignificant monthly changes [46]. - In October, the overall capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry decreased. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills changed by - 2.25%, the asphalt capacity utilization rate changed by - 8.6%, the cement clinker enterprise capacity utilization rate changed by 5%, the coking enterprise capacity utilization rate changed by - 1.99%, and the average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand changed by - 0.5% from the previous month. On the one hand, the implementation of the anti - involution policy led to a decrease in capacity utilization; on the other hand, the weakening of domestic and foreign demand in the manufacturing industry led to a reduction in enterprise operating rates [50]. - In terms of exports, after the tariff policies of the US on major countries have been finalized and the China - US summit postponed the tariff policy exemption for one year, the risk of a full - scale escalation of trade frictions has dropped sharply. After the previous export impulse effect, there is a risk of a pulse decline in Q4. China's manufacturing export competitiveness is strong, and after the decline in trade friction risks, it is expected to maintain its potential growth rate for a long time, supporting the economic center [58]. - In September, the US CPI inflation continued to rebound, while the core CPI inflation unexpectedly decreased, with a month - on - month decline of 0.1% to 3%. In terms of structure, energy prices contributed the main increase, the growth of food and beverages related to commodity inflation did not expand, and the housing and medical sub - items related to core inflation declined significantly, especially the housing sub - item, which decreased by 0.2% in a single month, indicating that the policy of expelling illegal immigrants began to affect core inflation again. Assuming that the month - on - month growth rate in October remains at 0.3% and drops to 0.2% from November to December, the annualized month - on - month rate at the end of the year will drop to 2.84%, and the Fed has limited room for further interest rate cuts this year [59]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October as expected by the market, but Powell released a hawkish guidance in the press conference, expressing concerns about the lag effect of tariffs on inflation and stating that the overall economic pressure was not large, and the preventive interest rate cuts were expected to end. The financial market significantly revised the overly optimistic market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of another interest rate cut in December 2025 dropped significantly to 63%, and the market will maintain a wait - and - see attitude until next April. The expected terminal interest rate for this year's interest rate cuts is between 3.5% - 3.75% [63]. Other Analyses - In the past month, the stock - bond risk premium was 2.56%, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous month, at the 44.1% quantile. The foreign - capital risk premium index was 3.39%, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month, at the 16.7% quantile. The attractiveness of foreign capital was at a relatively low level [66]. - The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 86.4%, 86.6%, 95.7%, and 85.3% quantiles respectively in the past five years, with relatively high valuation levels. The quantiles changed by 0.3%, - 1.6%, - 4%, and - 0.3% respectively from the previous month, and the attractiveness of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices increased marginally [70]. - According to the seasonal pattern analysis, the stock market in November is in a period of seasonal oscillation and structural differentiation. In terms of style, the growth style takes the lead first, followed by the cyclical style, with an overall high - level oscillation. The profit - making effect of the stock market in November is generally poor, and the style switches frequently. Considering the high valuation of the current growth style, the weak real - economy situation, and the full realization of positive factors, it is prone to high - level adjustments. Since the IF, IH, and IC are highly related to AI technology, all styles have adjustment risks. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the cyclical style's supplementary increase and the switch from the growth style to AI applications. Go long on IF and IH in case of a sharp drop, and conduct high - sell and low - buy operations on IC and IM [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core View of the Report In the short - term, with the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the overall better - than - expected third - quarter report earnings, market sentiment may shift from relative optimism to caution, and various asset prices are expected to be in a volatile stage. Policy support and abundant macro - liquidity provide support for the market, but there are also factors that suppress price increases in different sectors [1]. Summary by Related Categories Macro - finance - **Stock index**: In the short - term, the stock index may enter a volatile stage to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement, with strong support below due to policy protection and abundant macro - liquidity [1]. - **Treasury bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and gradually stabilize [1]. - **Silver**: With multiple factors in play, the silver price may remain volatile [1]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The macro - positive sentiment has been digested, and the copper price has corrected, but the downward space is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: There is limited industrial - side drive recently, and after the digestion of macro - positives, the aluminum price fluctuates [1]. - **Alumina**: Domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, with both production and inventory increasing, and the fundamental weakness pressures the spot price. Attention should be paid to cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The overall macro - positive sentiment has been digested, and the LME zinc squeeze risk has decreased but still exists. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to maintain high - level volatility [1]. - **Nickel**: The short - term nickel price may be dominated by macro factors and oscillate, with high inventory still suppressing. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and there is still pressure from long - term primary nickel surplus [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The short - term stainless steel futures may oscillate. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for opportunities to sell at high prices for hedging [1]. - **Tin**: Considering the unrepaired raw material end and good new - demand expectations, it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low levels in the long - term [1]. - **Industrial silicon**: Northwest production capacity is resuming, polysilicon production in November is decreasing, and it is affected by the spill - over of polysilicon [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation increases marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The new energy vehicle peak season is approaching, energy storage demand is strong, but there is high hedging pressure [1]. Black metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the realization of macro - sentiment, attention should be paid to upward pressure [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Attention should be paid to upward pressure after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - **Iron ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward potential due to good commodity sentiment [1]. - **Coke**: Direct demand is good with cost support, but high supply and inventory accumulation put pressure on the sector [1]. - **Glass**: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates price fluctuations [1]. - **Coking coal**: Coking coal is challenging the previous high, but there is uncertainty about whether it can break through. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures are at a premium. Industrial customers can consider selling some spot for hedging when the price rises [1]. Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: It still faces the dual pressure of seasonal production increase and weak exports in the short - term, but may rebound if export data improves in November [1]. - **Soybean oil**: The agreement to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months may bring a loose supply expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders and Canadian rapeseed harvest put pressure on the market [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The current price has fully priced in the selling pressure, and the downward space is limited, but the basis and price may be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices have seasonal upward momentum in the short - term, but the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Soybean meal**: The domestic soybean meal price is expected to rebound to repair the crushing margin, but the supply situation restricts the rebound height [1]. - **Paper pulp**: The trading logic is about the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. It is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live pigs**: The short - term futures price may weaken following the spot price, and there is still pressure on slaughter in November [1]. Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, geopolitical speculation has cooled, and market sentiment has eased [1]. - **Asphalt**: In the short - term, it follows crude oil, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, with sufficient supply of Ma Rui crude oil [1]. - **Natural rubber**: It is supported by raw material costs, with decreasing intermediate inventory and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR rubber**: The cost support of butadiene has declined, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose [1]. - **PTA**: The news of the "anti - involution" policy and production cuts have pushed up the price [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: It follows the decline of crude oil prices, but coal - based cost support has strengthened, and polyester demand has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: It follows the cost closely, and the basis has strengthened with the rise of PTA price [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window is closed, and the profit of styrene has decreased [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, and there is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and "anti - involution" [1]. - **PVC**: The market has returned to fundamentals, with reduced maintenance, more near - month warehouse receipts, and a weakening trend [1]. - **Caustic soda**: There are plans for alumina production in Guangxi, less concentrated maintenance, and problems with warehouse receipt digestion [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic market is also in a loose state [1]. - **Container shipping (European line)**: The price has fallen to a low level, and there is a possibility of a rebound. It is entering the contract - changing stage and is expected to stop falling [1].

Core Viewpoint - The glass market is experiencing a significant price increase due to supply constraints and rising production costs, driven by government-mandated production line shutdowns and increasing raw material prices [1][3][4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the Shahe region, four coal-fired production lines have been shut down since November 2, resulting in a loss of 2,400 tons/day of production capacity, which has led to a surge in glass trading and a production-sales rate of 166% [1] - Current daily melting capacity remains stable at 161,300 tons, with no immediate plans for production line shutdowns or restarts [3] - The overall demand has improved recently, particularly in Shahe and Hubei, with downstream sectors primarily focused on replenishing inventory [3] Price Influences - The rising prices of soda ash are contributing to increased production costs for glass manufacturers, while the demand for coal and natural gas is expected to rise during the heating season, further supporting glass prices [1] - Despite high inventory levels in glass manufacturing, the sentiment in the market is being positively influenced by macroeconomic policies and recent important meetings, suggesting a potential for price recovery [3][4] Market Outlook - The glass market is currently characterized by high inventory levels, with a slight decrease in factory stock observed recently [3] - The seasonal demand is weaker than expected, and the market is anticipated to return to fundamentals as prices adjust [4] - Future focus will be on the sustainability of production and sales, as well as the overall demand from end-users [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass is expected to continue in a pattern of weak demand and strong expectations in November 2025, with the 01 contract likely to oscillate at the bottom. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities after the premium is reversed. In the long - term, the cost support of the glass industry will gradually strengthen [3][63]. - For soda ash, in the short - term, there is a risk of capacity clearance. The price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. The SA01 contract should focus on the previous low support. In the long - term, the valuation of soda ash is not optimistic due to the expected new capacity release [4][102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass 2025 November Strategy Report 3.1.1 Glass 2025 October Review - In October, glass supply was stable, demand was weak, and the speculative demand in the middle - stream turned into speculative supply. The upstream inventory increased rapidly, and the prices in the main producing areas dropped. By the end of the month, the spot price stabilized at a low level [11]. - The FG01 - 05 spread continued the reverse - spread trend, corresponding to the weak reality and the market's expectation of environmental protection and capacity - restriction policies [11]. - In terms of supply, the daily melting capacity was stable in October, with 1 line ignited and no cold - repair. The production cost increased slightly, and the profit situation deteriorated [14]. - On the demand side, the deep - processing orders decreased, and the mid - and downstream inventory decreased. The real - estate data was poor, white - goods production decreased year - on - year, and automobile production maintained a high growth rate [20][22]. 3.1.2 Glass 2025 November Outlook - **Demand**: Affected by the real - estate cycle, glass demand is expected to remain weak. In November, the rigid demand may be weak and stable seasonally. Attention should be paid to whether the middle - stream replenishes inventory [50]. - **Supply**: In November, the ignition and cold - repair of production lines are expected to be relatively balanced. The supply may be affected by cold - repair and policy implementation, but the medium - term positive impact is limited [55]. - **Cost**: In October, the increase in fuel prices raised the production cost of the glass industry. The cost support for prices will gradually strengthen [60]. 3.1.3 Glass Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In November, the glass supply - demand pattern is expected to remain weak year - on - year, and the upstream inventory is expected to be worse than that in the fourth quarter of last year. - The valuation is driven by supply - side factors and potential mid - and downstream inventory replenishment. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities. The 01 - 05 spread has limited room to widen [63]. 3.2 Soda Ash 2025 November Strategy Report 3.2.1 Soda Ash 2025 October Review - In October, the high - supply and high - inventory pattern of soda ash remained unchanged. The spot price decreased slightly after the National Day, and the production cost increased due to the rise in coal prices. The SA01 contract oscillated in the range of 1200 - 1275 yuan/ton [70]. - In terms of supply, the production of soda ash remained high, but the alkali plant's initiative to reduce the load increased. The cost increased, and the industry's loss expanded [79]. - On the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash from the glass industry was stable, and the demand for light soda ash was supported. The net export of soda ash in September remained at a relatively high level [82][86]. - In terms of inventory, the upstream inventory increased seasonally at the beginning of the month and then changed little under the drive of downstream low - price replenishment [89]. 3.2.2 Soda Ash 2025 November Outlook - **Supply**: The capacity clearance of the soda ash industry is expected to continue in November, but the mid - term price is still under pressure due to the expected release of 2.8 million tons of new capacity from Yuangxing Phase II [95]. - **Demand**: The rigid demand for light soda ash is supported, and the demand for heavy soda ash from the glass industry is expected to be stable [98][99]. 3.2.3 Soda Ash Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In November, the soda ash supply - demand surplus pattern has not changed. The price is affected by the progress of Yuangxing Phase II's production. In the long - term, the valuation of soda ash is not optimistic. - The current price of soda ash is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. The SA01 contract should focus on the previous low support. The 01 - 05 spread lacks fundamental drivers and is more affected by macro factors [102].