华安期货：1月12日黄金/白银震荡偏强思路 重要信息： 全球增加官方黄金储备的趋势、公共债务高企带来的主权货币危机及工业领域的广阔应用前景等因素继续为贵金属提供中长期 支撑。短期因素，美联储下一任主席人选公布在即；近期全球地缘风险频发。总体，在不确定性较高的经济金融环境下，预计 黄金仍维持震荡偏强态势。 市场展望： 震荡偏强思路，需控制仓位，注意风险。本周关注美国CPI，中国贸易及社融指标。 2、美国1月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值54，创四个月新高，预期为升至53.5。 3、财政部、税务总局发布公告，自4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。 核心逻辑: 1、美国2025年12月季调后非农就业人口增加5万人，低于市场预期的6万人，11月数据下修8000人至增加5.6万人，10月则从减少 10.5万人进一步下修至减少17.3万人；12月失业率降至4.4%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have surged dramatically, reaching $4600, with previous resistance levels being easily surpassed [1][7] - There is a prevailing sense of urgency among both holders and non-holders of gold, driven by fears of missing out or the potential for a market correction [2][5] - The recent U.S. non-farm employment data presents mixed signals, with a strong employment rate but a declining unemployment rate, raising questions about the data's reliability and its implications for monetary policy [2][3] Group 2 - The current market sentiment is characterized by a one-sided upward trend in gold prices, with significant breakthroughs in key resistance levels following the non-farm data release [9] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has been increasing margin requirements to temper the exuberant bullish sentiment among traders, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [4] - Technical analysis suggests that the price of gold is expected to continue rising, with key levels identified for potential entry points and stop-loss placements [9]

摘要今日周一(1月12日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于1031元/克附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 1024.21元/克，涨幅1.25%，最高上探至1031.81元/克，最低触及1011.22元/克。目前来看，国际黄金短 线偏向看涨走势。 今日周一(1月12日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于1031元/克附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报1024.21 元/克，涨幅1.25%，最高上探至1031.81元/克，最低触及1011.22元/克。目前来看，国际黄金短线偏向看 涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美国总统特朗普上周日宣布，委内瑞拉将停止向古巴输送任何石油或资金，并暗示古巴应尽快与华盛顿 达成协议，否则将面临"零石油、零资金"的制裁。此言引发古巴领导层强烈反击。 美国情报机构评估显示，古巴农业、旅游业等关键部门受严重影响，失去委内瑞拉支持将使迪亚斯-卡 内尔执政更艰难，但未明确支持"古巴即将垮台"的预测。 【最新黄金行情解析】 黄金早间开盘即强势拉升，再度刷新历史新高，价格直逼4600一线。当前多头行情主要由两大核心因素 驱动：其一，非农数据不及预期——12月非农就业表现疲软，市场对美联储降息的预期升温，吸引资金 持续涌入 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil futures are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong [1][5] - Geopolitical risks boost the market, and the weak supply - demand pattern in the oil market is gradually weakening, leading to a strong rebound in crude oil futures prices last Friday and an expected oscillatory and strong trend for domestic crude oil futures on Monday [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - For crude oil 2602, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is strong, with an overall reference view of strong operation [1] 3.2 Core Logic - The US President Trump frequently releases geopolitical risk signals, with Greenland and Mexico potentially becoming targets, and the US threatening a new round of military strikes on Iran, intensifying Middle - East geopolitical risks [5] - The re - strengthening of crude oil premium weakens the weak supply - demand pattern in the oil market, supporting the strong rebound of crude oil futures prices last Friday and the expected strong trend on Monday [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Venezuela and Iran's geopolitical disturbances continue, causing short - term disruptions to oil exports and production due to US strategies, leading to increased volatility in fuel oil prices. Attention should be paid to geopolitical developments. The fundamental situation of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weakly stable in Q1. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to recover, and demand lacks specific driving factors [4]. - In terms of trading strategies, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillatingly strong. Geopolitical risks should be watched out for, and chasing up is not recommended. Opportunities for the FU59 positive spread should be noted, and options should be on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis** - Geopolitical factors in Venezuela and Iran disrupt short - term oil exports and production. High - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are weak in Q1. Russian exports are slightly affected, Mexican high - sulfur exports are rising, and low - sulfur supply is recovering [4]. - In terms of demand, the issuance of crude oil quotas in 2026 weakens the support for high - sulfur feedstock. Low - sulfur supply has increased recently [4]. - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral trading: Short - term oscillation with an upward bias, beware of geopolitical risks, and avoid chasing up [5]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to FU59 positive spread opportunities [5]. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Russia**: Energy facilities are under continuous attack, but overall exports are slightly affected. Refined oil exports are rising, and the overall refining capacity increased in December. High - sulfur fuel oil exports decreased in January [10]. - **Mexico**: High - sulfur exports are rising due to the increase in Pemex processing volume. However, medium - term exports are expected to decline [13]. - **Iran**: The internal situation is escalating. Oil exports and high - sulfur fuel oil exports decreased in December. Iraq plans to supply over 6 million tons of high - sulfur fuel oil from January to June 2026 [16]. - **Nigeria**: The Dangote refinery's gasoline unit is under maintenance, with stable low - sulfur supply. Low - sulfur tenders are continuously issued [25]. - **Middle East**: There is still a short - term supply gap for low - sulfur fuel oil. The Al - Zour refinery's CDU units have restarted, but secondary units have no restart updates [28]. - **Sudan**: Civil war disrupts oil supply and exports. The energy supply is expected to gradually recover, and new oil tenders have been issued [31]. - **Pan - Singapore Region**: The expected excess supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is gradually decreasing as RFCC unit operations increase [34]. - **Demand Side** - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - Feedstock demand: The issuance of crude oil quotas in 2026 weakens the support for high - sulfur feedstock, and Chinese imports decreased in December [19]. - Marine fuel demand: It is stably supported, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth of the number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers [22]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - There is no specific driving factor. Marine fuel demand is stable, and the power - generation economy is inferior to that of natural gas [37]. - High - sulfur marine fuel demand accounts for an increasing proportion, mainly due to the Red Sea suspension and the growth in the number of ships with desulfurization towers [40]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Price and Spread** - Fuel oil spot prices and various spreads (such as high - sulfur fuel oil cross - region and cross - period spreads, low - sulfur fuel oil cross - region and cross - variety spreads, etc.) are presented in graphical form, but specific numerical analyses are not provided in the text [44][47][50]. - **Inventory** - Inventory data for fuel oil in Singapore, ARA, the US, Fujeirah, and Japan are presented in graphical form, but no detailed text analysis is provided [70]. - Inventory data for gasoline, diesel, and refined oil in Northwest Europe and the US Gulf are also presented graphically [75][78].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The A - share market showed a strong upward trend on January 9, 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 16 - day consecutive rise and reaching over 4100 points, and the trading volume of the two markets exceeding 3 trillion yuan [1]. - The prices of various futures products are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations. For example, the prices of copper,生猪, etc. are influenced by different factors and show different trends [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On January 9, the three major A - share indexes continued to rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.92% to 4120.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.15% to 14120.15 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.77% to 3327.81 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 31526 billion yuan, an increase of 3261 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. Coking Coal and Coke - On January 9, the coking coal weighted index closed at 1198.0 yuan, down 7.7 from the previous day, and the coke weighted index closed at 1749.6, down 32.0 from the previous day [2][3]. - For coke, the EU carbon tariff has increased the cost of steel exports to the EU, the supply - side coke enterprise start - up has increased, and the total inventory has accumulated; the demand - side blast furnace start - up has also increased, and the daily average pig iron output has increased. For coking coal, domestic mine production capacity has recovered, Mongolian coal customs clearance is relatively sufficient, and the clean coal inventory has accumulated, while the downstream steel - coke load has increased, but the coke enterprise profit loss has expanded [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - US sugar futures prices fell slightly due to the prospect of supply surplus last Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract showed a volatile consolidation trend. As of the week ending January 6, speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 11,654 to 170,756 [4]. Rubber - Affected by short - selling pressure, Shanghai rubber futures prices fell last Friday. As of January 9, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory increased by 3345 tons to 120950 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 3900 tons to 104490 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory decreased by 2015 tons to 59270 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1007 tons to 56952 tons [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, China has purchased nearly 10 million tons of US soybeans, reaching 80% of the negotiated purchase plan. Brazilian soybeans are mostly sown, and early - maturing soybeans are entering the harvest period. It is estimated that Brazil's soybean exports to China in 2026 will be 77 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from 2025. - Domestically, on January 9, the soybean meal main contract M2505 closed at 2786 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. Last week, the soybean crushing of oil mills slowed down, and the imported soybean inventory increased slightly. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.135 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous week. High - level soybean meal inventory will hinder price increases [6]. Live Pigs - On January 9, the live pig main contract LH2603 closed at 11770 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The group farms have completed their annual slaughter plans, and the slaughter plan of breeding enterprises in January has been reduced. The demand side has strong seasonal consumption, which supports the price in the short term. However, the medium - and long - term supply pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated [7]. Shanghai Copper - Last Friday, the Shanghai copper main contract showed an upward trend, closing at 102220 yuan/ton. The macro - level has a strong easing expectation, and the supply of global copper mines remains tight. Although it is currently in the consumption off - season, emerging industries bring long - term demand growth. It is predicted that global copper demand will increase by 50% in 2040 [8]. Cotton - On Friday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14490 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased compared with the previous trading day. The downstream yarn mills' purchasing power has weakened [8]. Iron Ore - On January 9, the iron ore 2605 main contract closed down 0.73% at 814.5 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has decreased, the arrival volume has increased slightly, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The short - term iron ore price is in a volatile trend [8]. Logs - On January 9, the log 2603 main contract opened at 780.5, with a lowest of 771, a highest of 780.5, and closed at 774.5, with a decrease of 258 lots in positions. The spot - end support needs to be concerned [8]. Asphalt - On January 9, the asphalt 2603 main contract closed up 0.51% at 3171 yuan. The current asphalt supply is at a low level, the inventory has accumulated, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the demand has decreased significantly. Supported by the cost of crude oil, the short - term price shows a volatile trend [10]. Steel - The current supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are stable, with low production, low consumption, and low inventory. After the New Year's Day, the building materials will enter the winter storage market. The plate is still restricted by high inventory, and the inventory pressure remains after the steel mills resume production. The black commodities are strong in the short term, but the fundamentals need to be tested later [10]. Alumina - The bauxite price has slightly declined, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The domestic alumina production capacity is at a high level, and the supply has slightly decreased. The demand for alumina has increased slightly due to the release of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - The raw material alumina price is low, and the electrolytic aluminum plant's theoretical profit is good, with a positive production start - up sentiment. The domestic electrolytic aluminum new production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is relatively stable. Due to the off - season, the downstream new orders have decreased, and the aluminum ingot inventory has continued to accumulate [10].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 # 2 2 7 一、原油近期市场行情总结 行情回顾:上周原油价格呈现出了大幅波动,尽管目前EIA数据并求出现明显供需差好转,一季度原油 基本面仍然处于相对过利阶段,但在本周内市场主要的交易锚点却持续脱离基本面交易,进而种向地煤 风险交易。本周从周初因美国总统特朗普宣称委释放委内瑞拉产量并且移交3000-5000万桶石油的消息 后,油价快递下跌,又在市场评估出美国无法快递于委内瑞拉增产,以及伊朗与以色列冲突不断加刷的 请况下出现大幅反弹,整体周内行情呈现深V走势,目前原油价格仍处于地球风险计价过程中,如果后 续伊朗与以色列冲突加剧,或是伊朗内部发生问题,很难让我们不去联想25年6月的那波原油跳深。 原油价格: 截至2025年12月9日当周,布伦特原油期货结算价为63.34关元/桶,较上周上涨1.58美元/桶 (2.56%):WTI原油期货结算价为59.12美元/桶,较上周上涨0.8美元/桶(1.37%):DUBAI原油期货站 算价为61.92美元/桶,较上周上涨1.54美元/桶(2.55%)。 数据分析:本周EIA数据,原油库 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The geopolitical risk from the US's tough action against Venezuela boosts the safe - haven attribute of precious metals, but the trading sentiment of the platinum and palladium market weakens due to concentrated long - position reduction. The Fed's potential balance - sheet expansion provides bottom support for the precious metals market [7]. - The supply shortage of platinum persists due to long - term structural constraints in major producing areas, and the industrial demand remains resilient, especially in the automotive industry. In contrast, the demand for palladium is expected to weaken as it is over - concentrated in the automotive catalyst field and affected by the popularization of new - energy vehicles. The market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus. In the short term, the US - Venezuela situation may support platinum and palladium prices, while in the long term, the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" trend is likely to continue [7]. - The operating ranges are: for London platinum, the upper resistance is $2500 per ounce and the lower support is $1900 per ounce; for London palladium, the upper resistance is $1900 per ounce and the lower support is $1500 per ounce [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - The US - Venezuela situation boosts the safe - haven attribute of precious metals, but trading sentiment weakens due to long - position reduction. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion provides support [7]. - Platinum supply shortage persists due to structural issues in major producing areas, and industrial demand is resilient. Palladium demand is expected to weaken as the market shifts to surplus, but the bullish sentiment from rate - cut expectations may support prices [7]. - In the short term, the US - Venezuela situation may support prices; in the long term, the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" trend is likely [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The platinum and palladium markets rebounded this week, showing a volatile and upward trend [8]. - As of January 9, 2026, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium main contract 2606 was at 499.05 yuan/gram, up 17.37% week - on - week; the platinum main contract 2606 was at 599.80 yuan/gram, up 13.76% week - on - week [10]. - NYMEX platinum and palladium long - position net holdings differ significantly, with palladium showing a net outflow. As of December 30, 2025, NYMEX platinum long - position net holdings were 23,636 contracts, down 6.95% month - on - month; palladium long - position net holdings were - 1546 contracts, up 5.21% month - on - month [11][15]. - This week, the basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts weakened [16]. - As of January 8, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory was 625,014.69 ounces, down 4.26% month - on - month; palladium inventory was 211,305.82 ounces, up 0.61% month - on - month [24]. - The price ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold significantly increased at the beginning of 2025 [25]. - The rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices rises [27]. - Recently, the positive correlation between platinum prices and NYMEX platinum inventory and the US dollar index has weakened marginally [31]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - As of November 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum decreased [35]. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts decreased marginally [40]. - The total global demand for platinum and palladium shows a moderate downward trend, and the global supply of platinum and palladium declines [45][50]. 3.4 Macroeconomics and Options - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded steadily [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks have pushed up the safe-haven premium of precious metals. The market risk sentiment has increased, leading to a potential slight rise in the demand for gold investment. The gold and silver prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow again [1][8]. Market Analysis - Geopolitically, US President Trump plans to "manage" Venezuela for many years and extract its oil reserves, and proposes to increase the US military budget from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in fiscal year 2027. In terms of employment data, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to 208,000, slightly lower than market expectations, and still in a historically low range. The number of layoffs in December last year was 35,553, the lowest in 17 months [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 8, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 999.40 yuan/gram and closed at 997.94 yuan/gram, a change of -0.10% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1001.82 yuan/gram, up 0.39% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 19,103.00 yuan/kg and closed at 18,450.00 yuan/kg, a change of -4.35% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,142,360 lots, and the open interest was 281,631 lots. The night session closed at 18,368 yuan/kg, down 0.44% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 8, 2026, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.163%, a change of +0.015% from the previous trading day. The 10-2 year spread was 0.677%, a change of -0.1 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On January 8, 2026, on the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 3,317 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 2,803 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 316,913 lots, a change of -2.78% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions increased by 531 lots, and the short positions increased by 8,738 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 3,113,931 lots, a change of -4.02% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The position of the gold ETF was 1,067.13 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 16,100 tons, a decrease of 18 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On January 8, 2026, the domestic premium of gold was -4.20 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -439.81 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 54.09, a change of 4.45% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 56.46, a change of -0.49% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On January 8, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 48,788 kg, a change of -22.72% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 2,833,448 kg, a change of 244.04% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 11,872 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 3,000 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: The price is expected to fluctuate between 990 yuan/gram and 1010 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The price is expected to fluctuate between 17,500 yuan/kg and 19,000 yuan/kg [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8].

值得一提的是，近期多家上市黄金矿企发布业绩预喜。灵宝黄金预计2025年度取得净利润人民币介于约 15.03亿元至约15.73亿元，同比增加约115%至125%；紫金矿业预计全年实现归母净利润510亿至520亿 元，同比增幅约为59%至62%；赤峰黄金则预计全年净利润同比增加约70%到81%。 消息面上，近期地缘风险与降息预期支撑金价，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周四再度向美联储施压， 并称该行需要尽其所能促进经济投资，利率应该大幅降低。当前市场关注将于今晚公布的2025年12月非 农就业报告。摩根士丹利在报告中预测，黄金价格将在2026年第四季度升至每盎司4800美元，突破去年 创下的历史纪录。该投行认为，利率下行、美联储领导层更迭，以及各国央行和基金持续买入，将共同 推动金价进一步上涨。 黄金股多数走高，截至发稿，山东黄金（600547）(01787)涨5.8%，报39.78港元；招金矿业(01818)涨 4.8%，报35.82港元；紫金矿业（601899）(02899)涨3.12%，报38.86港元；赤峰黄金（600988）(06693) 涨3.11%，报29.85港元。 ...