V期现日报 投资次输业务资格·证监许可 【2011】1292 2025年6月6日 林嘉施 Z0020770 | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 304/2B (无锡宏旺2.0卷) | 13050 | 13100 | -50 | -0.38% | 元/吨 | | 304/2B (佛山宏旺2.0卷) | 13050 | 13050 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 期现价差 | 530 | 550 | -20 | -3.64% | 元/吨 | | 原料价格 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 菲律宾红土镍矿1.5%(CIF)均价 | ਦਰੇ | ਦੌਰੇ | O | 0.00% | 美元/湿吨 | | 南非40-42%铬精矿均价 | 60 | ୧୦ | - J | -0.83% | 元/吨度 | | 8-12%高镍生铁出厂均价 | 957 | વેરૂદ | 1 | 0.05% | 元/镍点 | | 内 ...

2025年06月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：小非农超预期走弱 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 3 | | 铜：库存持续走低，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：偏弱震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：小幅下跌 | 7 | | 锌：震荡调整 | 9 | | 铅：区间运行 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：基本面疲弱，关注中美关税修复的可能性 | 15 | | 工业硅：商品情绪改善，关注上行风险 | 17 | | 多晶硅：弱势基本面格局依旧 | 17 | | 铁矿石：板块预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：三轮提降开启，盘面震荡偏强 | 24 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，盘面震荡偏强 | 24 | | 动力煤：底部阶段企稳运行 | 26 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 27 | | 对二甲苯：PX ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/06/05 China Futures Daily Note 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China plans to support 20 cities including Beijing and Tianjin in implementing urba ...

2025 年 6 月 5 日星期四 广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z001 ...

稍早前，美国5月ADP就业人数增3.7万人，预期增11.0万人，前值增6.2万人。美国5月份的招聘速度达到2023年3月以来的最低水平。 在美国5月ADP就业数据发布后，美国总统特朗普表示，鲍威尔现在必须降息。他还表示"这令人难以置信，欧洲已经降息九次了"。 数据公布后，美元指数短线走低约20点，美股期货短线走低，纳指100期货涨幅收窄至0.1%，美国10年期国债收益率短线走低，现报4.454%。现货黄金短 线小幅走高，现报3348.86美元/盎司。 当地时间周三，欧股普遍上涨，截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.42%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.41%，法国CAC 40指数涨0.52%。 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes 部分经济学家担心，关税政策可能会在未来几个月导致美国就业市场明显疲软，但目前数据并未显示出这一点。 LBBW银行的首席经济学家Moritz Kraemer表示："我们目前还没有看到关税对劳动力市场、通胀等方面的明显冲击，这些影响可能会延 ...

Production Side - As of the fourth week of May, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.89%, up 0.26 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The rebar operating rate was 42.64%, increasing by 0.83 percentage points month-on-month[3] - The cement mill operating rate was at a low level of 41.83%, down 0.40 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The inventory of rebar was 186.42 million tons, down 0.69 percentage points month-on-month[3] Demand Side - In May, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 201.56 million square meters, down 2.12% month-on-month[60] - The land transaction area was 903.48 million square meters, down 5.97% month-on-month[60] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 60,823 units, up 18.85% month-on-month[89] Price Trends - The average price of cement was 368.33 yuan/ton, down 1.61% month-on-month[72] - The price of rebar was 3,077.13 yuan/ton, down 2.36% month-on-month[73] - The PPI for copper was 77,042 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month-on-month[99]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall financial and commodity futures markets are affected by multiple factors such as trade policies, economic data, and supply - demand fundamentals, showing different trends and outlooks in various sectors. For example, in the stock index futures market, the index is affected by news and has short - term fluctuations; in the bond market, the short - term trend of treasury bond interest rates is expected to be "bounded above and below"; in the precious metals market, gold has long - term support but short - term fluctuations [2][7][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Financial Futures** - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the A - share market opened lower and then strengthened. Consumption stocks became popular, while high - dividend stocks declined. The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis discount of the main contracts converged. It is recommended to wait and see, and try to go long on the CSI 1000 index in the 5800 - 5900 range [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The funds were balanced and loose, and the treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly. It is expected that the short - term treasury bond interest rates will fluctuate within a certain range. It is recommended to conduct interval band operations, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract, and there may be opportunities to steepen the curve [6][7][8]. - **Precious Metals**: After the "black swan" event overseas during the Dragon Boat Festival, the market returned to rationality, and precious metals declined. Gold has long - term support but short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold options to earn time value when volatility rises [9][11][12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The July quotation of CMA opened higher, and the futures market rebounded after bottom - hunting. The overall attitude is cautiously bullish, and it is recommended to go long on the main contract at low prices [13][14]. Commodity Futures - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: The weak driving force continues, and the "strong reality" may not last. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [14][17][19]. - **Zinc**: The supply increase is less than expected, which supports the price. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes. The short - term view is oscillatory, and the main contract reference range is 21500 - 23500 [19][20][22]. - **Tin**: There is an expectation of supply restoration, and the tin price continues to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [22][23][24]. - **Nickel**: The market is calm, and the fundamentals change little. The short - term is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [24][26][27]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is weak, and there are still contradictions between supply and demand. The short - term is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract reference range is 12600 - 13200 [28][30][31]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is weakly stable, and the fundamental logic has not changed. The short - term is expected to be weak, and the main contract reference range is 56000 - 60000 [31][32][34]. - **Black Metals** - **Steel**: The apparent demand has peaked, and the cost has decreased, leading to a significant decline in steel prices. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias [35][37][38]. - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output has declined, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The reference range is 700 - 745 [39][41]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills has been implemented, and there may be further cuts. It is recommended to stop profiting on short positions of the 2509 contract and consider the strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke [42][44]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is weak, and the price may continue to decline. It is recommended to stop profiting on short positions of the 2509 contract and consider the strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [44][46]. - **Silicon Iron**: Large factories in Ningxia have resumed production, and the cost may still decline. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [47][49]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The shipment from Groote Eylandt has resumed, and the supply pressure still exists. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [50][52][53]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Meal Products**: CBOT is weak again, and the two meals are oscillating. The two meals are expected to maintain an oscillatory structure, and the main contract of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2900 - 3000 [54][56]. - **Pigs**: After the festival, the demand is weak, and the spot price is under pressure. The market lacks upward drive, and it is necessary to pay attention to the support at around 13500 [57][58][59]. - **Corn**: Affected by the weak wheat price, corn opened high and closed low. In the short term, it will maintain an interval oscillation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the wheat market and policy releases [60][61].

| 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 2025年6月3日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | | | 前值 | 日 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解销 | | 122325 | 121525 | 800 | 0.66% | 7C/HT | | 1#金川镇 | | 123525 | 122625 | 900 | 0.73% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镇升贴水 | | 2600 | 2500 | 100 | 4.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | | 121175 | 120375 | 800 | 0.66% | 元/肥 | | 1#进口镇升贴水 | | 250 | 250 | O | | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | | -203 | -196 | -7 | 3.79% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | | -3496 | -3085 | -411 ...

显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 20 期） 频率：每周 目前看，5 月供给形势可能仍较为稳定，需求方面出口和消费相对较好，房地 产投资继续拖累投资整体形势。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 40 ——并购重组新规出台，央企 上市公司加速新兴产业布局和 "两非""两资"资产剥离》 2025-06-03 2、《美国国内政治加剧对外政 策动荡———国际时政周评》 2025-06-02 3、《PPI 或进一步下探——宏 观与大类资产周报》2025-06-02 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 06 月 03 日 如何看待 5 月宏观经济形势 正文目录 | 1、开工率 | | --- | | 2、产能利用率…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...

研究报告 甲醇月报 基本面依旧偏弱，未来关注宏观 华龙期货投资咨询部 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 5 月，甲醇基本面依旧偏弱，5 月甲醇供给增加较为明显，而 甲醇下游主力产品产能利用率下降。供需偏弱，使得企业出货不 理想，进而导致甲醇企业库存上升。港口库存方面，由于进口增 加，使得 5 月甲醇港口库存同样上升。偏弱的基本面使得 5 月国 内甲醇价格下跌明显，进而导致甲醇企业利润下降。5 月外围甲 醇市场同样呈现需求不足，国际甲醇价格同样呈现下跌。 【后市展望】 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日星期二 6 月预计甲醇产量将继续增加，供给端仍是甲醇的主 ...