Report Overview - **Date**: July 14, 2025 - **Subject**: Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Analysts**: Huang Liunan, Zheng Yujie 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The past week saw the container shipping index fluctuate and strengthen slightly. In the short - term, the market freight rate remained stable around $3350/FEU. Looking ahead to August, there is likely a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand at the monthly level. Freight rates may start to decline more rapidly in late August. For the strategy, it is recommended to hold a light short position for the 10 - contract and consider a pyramid - style build - up, with the upper pressure level at 1500 points. For the 2508 contract, pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions for delivery in the range of 1950 - 2000 points [9][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Fundamental Data of Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Futures**: EC2508 closed at 2,030.6, down 0.71%; EC2510 at 1,382.0, down 1.40%; EC2512 at 1,540.9, down 1.48% [1] - **Freight Rate Index**: SCFIS European route was 2,258.04 points, up 6.3% week - on - week; SCFIS US West route was 1,557.77 points, down 3.8% week - on - week. SCFI European route was $2,099/TEU, down 0.1% bi - weekly; SCFI US West route was $2,194/FEU, up 5.0% bi - weekly [1] - **Spot Freight Rates**: Rates for different carriers from Shanghai to Rotterdam varied, with prices for 40'GP ranging from $3110 - $3845 and for 20'GP from $1855 - $2604 [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US Dollar Index was 97.86, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.17 [1] 3.2 Market Freight Rate Conditions - In late July, MSC and Yang Ming reduced prices, while the Gemini Alliance had a slight increase. The OA and PA Alliances, including ONE and HMM, kept their rates. The market freight rate remained stable around $3350/FEU [9] - Different alliances and carriers had different rate adjustments in July. For example, the FAK price of MSC decreased from $3640/FEU in early July to $3440/FEU in late July [9][10] 3.3 Shipping Capacity - The weekly average shipping capacity in July was 30.1 million TEU/week. In the past week, Maersk's overtime ship was redirected, and the capacity in week 31 was revised down to 33.5 million TEU [11] - The weekly average shipping capacity in August is 31.5 million TEU/week. Potential changes include whether Evergreen's "EVER GOVERN" will be dispatched, whether Maersk will send an overtime ship, and the situation of ship schedule delays [11] - In September, there are 2 empty sailings and 8 pending voyages. Excluding pending voyages, the weekly average shipping capacity is 29.3 million TEU/week, but this value has limited reference significance for now [11] 3.4 Shipping Company Loading and Rate Adjustment - The Gemini and OA Alliances had a relatively high proportion of long - term contracts, and their loading in late July was optimistic. MSC increased its shipping capacity in late July, faced more pressure in cargo collection, and reduced its FAK list price by $200/FEU. Only Yang Ming followed with a $100/FEU reduction [12] 3.5 Future Freight Rate Forecast and Strategy - **Neutral Scenario**: Spot FAK may be revised down to $3100 - $3200/FEU in wk31 and wk32, and then decreased by $200/FEU in wk33 and wk34. The neutral valuation of 08 is around 2050 points, and the delivery settlement price of 2508 may be in the range of 2050 - 2150 points [13] - **Pessimistic Scenario**: If Maersk adds a new overtime ship in wk33, it may cut prices to stock up in wk32, leading other carriers to cut prices, and the delivery settlement price of 2508 may move down to the range of 1950 - 2050 points [13] - **Optimistic Scenario**: If the OA Alliance raises prices in wk31 and wk32, the 2508 contract may have at least 200 points of premium water market [13] - **Strategy**: Hold a light short position for the 10 - contract and consider a pyramid - style build - up, with the upper pressure level at 1500 points. For the 2508 contract, pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions for delivery in the range of 1950 - 2000 points [13]

研究报告 纯碱周报 纯碱供需矛盾 市场弱势持续 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周纯碱主力合约SA2509 价格在1244-1163 元/吨之间运行， 价格保持低位震荡。 研究员：侯帆 截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2509 上涨 43 元/吨，周度跌涨 3.66%，报收 1217 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率环比持平，截止到 2025 年 7 月 10 日，国内纯碱产量 70.90 万吨，环比持平。其中，轻质碱产量 30.88 万吨，环比减少 0.43 万吨。重质碱产量 40.02 万吨，环比 增加 0.43 万吨。 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 14 日星期一 库存情况纯碱库存小幅增长，截止到 2025 年 7 月 10 日，国 内纯碱厂家总库存 186.34 万吨，较上周一增加 1.53 万吨，涨幅 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ 燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 储库推进欧洲气价上升，高温天气缓和美国气价回 落，关注利润稳定的高股息标的新奥股份 2025 年 07 月 14 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025-06-30 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 2024/7/15 2024/11/12 2025/3/12 2025/7/10 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 《欧洲储库推进、美国高温天气持续， 各地气价平稳》 2025-07-07 《中东局势缓和欧洲气价回落，高温 天气带动美国气价上涨，国内气价平 稳》 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪：欧洲储库推进气价上升，美国高温天气缓和气价回落，国内气价弱势运 行。截至 2025/07/11,美国 HH ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：市场氛围偏暖 期现共振走强 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 14 日 逻辑：上周，煤焦期货价格延续震荡反弹走势，现货市场跟涨，多地 焦企开始首轮提涨。近日市场情绪持续回暖，利多传闻不断，刺激价格走 强，但仍有待关注相关政策、措施实际落地情况。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 观点：近期在市场看涨氛围烘托下，叠加供需压力稍有缓解，期现货 共振走强。 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、煤矿复产情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper continued to decline, with the main contract of Shanghai copper falling 1.63% to close at 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and there were still many global uncertainties. In China, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons [4]. - The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025 [11]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - Shanghai copper continued to decline last week, with the main contract falling 1.63% to 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and downstream consumption entered the off - season. Domestic spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME inventory increased slightly, and SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons [4]. b) Fundamentals - **PMI**: No detailed information provided [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows specific data from 2018 - 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons. The bonded area inventory remained at a low level [4][18]. c) Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees were at a low level [21]. - **CFTC Positioning**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [23]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No detailed information provided [26]. - **Import Profit**: No detailed information provided [29]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: No detailed information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical risk has decreased, and the probability of a rate cut in July has decreased, but there is still uncertainty in tariff negotiations. Although OPEC+ will complete the plan to exit the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million tons ahead of schedule, the price increase in Saudi Arabia for the Asian region combined with the peak demand season will support the downside of oil prices. The implementation of the increased production has a certain lag, and once it is implemented, it will still impact the market. Short - term trading should be mainly based on short - term band operations, focusing on the WTI range of $60 - 70, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 International Crude Oil Analysis - **Price Trends**: From July 7 - 11, international oil prices fluctuated strongly. Despite uncertainties in trade frictions, peak - season demand and low inventories supported oil products. As of July 11, WTI and Brent settled at $67.93/barrel (+2.46%) and $69.78/barrel (+2.34%) respectively; INE SC settled at 512.26 yuan/barrel (+2.36%) [8]. - **Financial Aspects**: Against the backdrop of the postponement of tariff implementation and the easing of the Middle East situation, investors' risk appetite increased significantly, and the US stock market remained at a high level. As of July 11, the S&P 500 index reached 6259.75, continuing its rebound since mid - April [12]. - **Crude Oil Volatility and Dollar Index**: The crude oil ETF volatility continued to decline this week, while the dollar index rebounded. As of July 11, the crude oil volatility ETF was at 37.06, and the dollar index was at 97.87. Crude oil volatility declined with the easing of risks, and the dollar index rebounded due to the reduced expectation of a rate cut but was still under pressure overall [15]. - **Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions**: As of July 8, the net long positions of WTI management funds decreased by 28,900 contracts to 145,700 contracts, a monthly decline of 16.6%; the speculative net long positions increased by 3,600 contracts to 63,700 contracts, a monthly increase of 6%. Since July, peak - season demand has gradually supported oil prices, but the net long positions decreased due to high valuations [18]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis - **OPEC Production**: In May, OPEC's production increased by 184,000 barrels per day to 2.7022 million barrels per day. Most countries, except Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, have started to implement the production increase plan, especially Saudi Arabia. However, the increase in May of the eight countries that agreed to increase production was far lower than planned, mainly because some countries began to implement their submitted compensatory production cut plans [23]. - **OPEC+ Production Cut Situation**: According to the IEA's statistical caliber, the production of 9 OPEC member countries in May was 2.199 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 barrels per day. Iraq and the UAE still had significant over - production, but the over - production amount has started to decrease, indicating that the compensatory production cut plan may be taking effect [26]. - **Saudi and Iranian Production**: In May, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 177,000 barrels per day to 9.183 million barrels per day. Iran's crude oil production decreased by 25,000 barrels per day to 3.303 million barrels per day. The impact of US sanctions on Iran may be gradually reflected in its crude oil production [30]. - **Russian Crude Oil Supply**: According to the OPEC statistical caliber, Russia's crude oil production in May was 8.984 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 barrels per day, remaining relatively stable at a low level. According to the IEA statistical caliber, its production was 9.17 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 160,000 barrels per day, presumably affected by compensatory production cuts [40]. - **US Crude Oil Rig Count**: As of the week of July 11, the number of active drilling oil wells in the US was 424, 1 less than the previous week and 54 less than the same period last year. The improvement in drilling and well efficiency allows producers to maintain record - high production while controlling capital expenditure. The rig count in the Permian region has decreased significantly, and the potential for crude oil production increase may be limited [44]. - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of the week of July 4, US crude oil production remained stable at 13.385 million barrels per day, a decrease of 48,000 barrels per day from the previous week, but a year - on - year increase of 0.64%. Although US crude oil production is at a historical high, low oil prices may dampen producers' enthusiasm and limit the growth space of US oil production [47]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis - **US Total Petroleum Product Demand**: As of the week of July 4, the average daily demand for refined oil products in the US was 20.863 million barrels per day, an increase of 376,000 barrels per day from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 0.55%. The four - week average shows that US petroleum demand continues to recover in the peak season, but the recovery speed is slower than in previous years [51]. - **US Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Distillate Data**: As of July 4, US crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels per day to 13.385 million barrels per day; consumption increased by 276,000 barrels per day to 20.564 million barrels per day; refinery throughput decreased by 99,000 barrels per day to 17.006 million barrels per day; refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 94.7% [55]. - **US Gasoline, Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: As of July 11, the gasoline crack spread was $23.4 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $34.34 per barrel. The weekly demand for gasoline and heating oil increased month - on - month. The four - week average demand for gasoline was lower than in previous years, while that of heating oil was better than last year [59]. - **European Diesel, Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: As of July 11, the ICE diesel crack spread was $26.81 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $32.43 per barrel. The extremely cold weather and low temperatures had limited impact on heating oil demand, and the positive effect was weaker than in the first quarter, mainly showing a volatile trend. Diesel performed better than heating oil due to low inventories and restocking needs [63]. - **Chinese Oil Products and Refinery Situation**: In May, China's crude oil processing volume decreased by 1.406 million tons year - on - year to 59.111 million tons (-2.32%); imports decreased by 370,000 tons year - on - year to 46.6 million tons (-0.79%). Since March, state - owned refineries have reduced their purchases of Russian seaborne oil and increased procurement from alternative supplies in the Middle East, West Africa, and South America [67]. - **Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth**: International institutions such as EIA and IEA have lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth, while OPEC maintains last month's judgment. In June, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted this year's global crude oil demand growth rates to be 800,000 barrels per day (down), 720,000 barrels per day (down), and 1.3 million barrels per day (unchanged) respectively. Next year's growth rates are expected to be 1.05 million barrels per day, 740,000 barrels per day, and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively [72]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: As of July 4, EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased significantly by 707,000 barrels to 426.02 million barrels, a year - on - year decrease of 4.29%; SPR inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 403 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 46,400 barrels to 212,000 barrels [73]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of the four - week period ending July 4, the net import volume of US crude oil decreased by 1.358 million barrels per day to 3.256 million barrels per day. US refinery throughput decreased by 99,000 barrels per day to 17.1006 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 94.7% [77]. - **WTI and Brent Month - to - Month Spreads**: As of July 11, the WTI M1 - M2 month - to - month spread was $1.41 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $4.13 per barrel. The WTI month - to - month spread maintained a back structure, and the monthly spread indicator strengthened slightly on a weekly basis. The Brent month - to - month spread also maintained a back structure, with the M1 - M2 spread at $1.2 per barrel and the M1 - M5 spread at $2.96 per barrel [81][84]. 3.5 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference - **Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Table**: In July, the EIA predicted that this year's global oil supply would be 104.61 million barrels per day, and demand would be 103.54 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.07 million barrels, which continued to increase compared to last month. The EIA believes that OPEC's production increase plan and the production increase outside the group will continue to drive the strong growth of global liquid fuel production [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro: As of July 14, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 6.7%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 59.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 36.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 4.1% [5]. - Fundamentals: Driven by anti - involution and meeting expectations, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market is hot, and zinc prices have rebounded and then fluctuated. From a fundamental perspective, the cyclical supply of zinc ore is becoming looser. In 2025, several major zinc ore projects at home and abroad have production increase plans. The recovery of global zinc ore production has led to a continuous strengthening of the marginal spot TC of zinc ore. The increase in ore production is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, the operating rate of domestic smelters has increased, and maintenance has been postponed. The output of refined zinc has marginally recovered, and the increasing production situation at the ore and smelting ends is expected to continue. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there are concerns about a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate maintains resilience, there is little expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, which will mainly remain at the existing level. Whether the demand is estimated to be optimistic or pessimistic, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price center [5]. - Strategy: In the short and medium term, the short - term sentiment in the domestic commodity market is hot, but there seems to be no clear expectation that can reverse the supply - demand situation, and it has little to do with the fundamentals of zinc. Consider laying out short positions in SHFE zinc on rallies [5]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Core Viewpoints - The macro situation shows different probabilities of the Fed's interest rate decisions in July and September. The fundamentals indicate a shift in the zinc supply - demand balance towards surplus, and the strategy suggests shorting SHFE zinc on rallies [5]. Part 2: Industrial Fundamentals - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In April 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 1.0192 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. The international long - term contract TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and it was halved compared to the previous year. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was overestimated, and the trend of a marginally looser zinc ore supply remains unchanged [7]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate were 2.2055 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.83%. The increase in imports has boosted processing fees. As of July 11, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $66.48/ton, and that for domestic ore was reported at 3,800 yuan/ton, with both having been raised several times recently [9]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, smelter profits have been continuously improved [12]. - **Refined Zinc Production**: In April 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52%. In June 2025, China's refined zinc production was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As profits recover, production is gradually increasing [16]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 145,400 tons. The import window for refined zinc is currently closed [19]. Part 3: Industrial Fundamentals - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In May 2025, China's galvanized sheet production was 2.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.63%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products is relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [24]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) has declined. The back - end of the real estate market has improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction are still weak [26]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In May 2025, China's automobile production was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. The production and sales of household appliances have cooled down due to the exhaustion of national subsidy funds in some regions, and the impact of subsequent tariffs should be noted [29]. Part 4: Other Indicators - **Inventory**: As the off - season approaches, social inventories of zinc have slightly increased [31]. - **Spot Premium/Discount**: As of July 11, the LME 0 - 3 premium/discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $0.36/ton. As the off - season approaches, the domestic spot premium has declined [34]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of July 4, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 20,595 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc has recently declined [37].

上周随着特朗普对一些贸易伙伴宣布的新一轮关税政策落地，市场避险情绪再度回升，加上美联储官员释放出来降息的预期，双重利 好刺激黄金走高，需要注意的就是在8月1号最后截止日期之前会不会有协商后的和谐情况出现，一旦磋商达成一致，情绪回落将会有 快速回落，刺激行情，所以需要谨慎不要过分盲目，技术面上看上周突破了收敛三角形整理的上沿3330附近压力然后惯性拉伸一度触 及目前高位3373一线，日线三连阳拉伸，日内关注3390/95附近压力，关注3345/50一线顶底转换的为支撑情况，操作上回踩多为主， 切勿追高。 黄金低多成功兑现上破空间，原油强压继续做空！ 7/14黄金原油参考思路 原油方面，随着俄乌局势和谈无望，美欲对俄展开新一轮的制裁，短期再度给到市场炒作点，原油上周回落到66.3附近之后企稳在周 五走出大幅的反弹，但是目前依旧未能突破69附近强压位，所以延续性还有待观察，目前美国原油库存高企，全球整体供应稳定增 加，需求后续预期会减少，所以供需失衡的状态还会延续，所以操作上目前反弹到强压附近还是先做空不变，关注后续回踩情况。 黄金回踩3349附近多，防守3342，目标看3365/70上方，反抽初见3388附近空， ...

Trade and Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's goods trade import and export reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. Exports amounted to 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, declining by 2.7% [1] Coal Industry - The China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association recently held a meeting to analyze the economic operation of the coal industry in the first half of the year. The meeting emphasized the need to strengthen industry self-discipline, rectify excessive competition, and promote a balance between supply and demand in the coal market [3] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has surpassed the 120,000 yuan mark, setting a new historical high [4] Stock Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.43%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.23%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.74%. The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.11%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.2% [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-14 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量大幅下滑， 终端需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1200元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1217元/吨，基差为-17元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存186.34万吨，较前一周增加2.98%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游玻璃盘面回升，提振纯碱市场情绪。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：纯 ...