Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,610 per troy ounce on Tuesday, down 0.1% from Monday’s closing price of $4,614.70. The price of gold reached an all-time high of $4,620 yesterday. The Trump administration’s investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell may continue to be a primary influence on the price of gold in 2026. The value of the U.S. dollar and interest rates will also be affected. Powell said the investigation is a continuation of President Trump’s attempts to manipulate interest rates, which conc ...

Group 1 - The total silver futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 649,643 kilograms, with an increase of 29,381 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures maintained a fluctuating pattern, opening at 18,800 yuan per kilogram, reaching a high of 20,998 yuan per kilogram, a low of 18,743 yuan per kilogram, and closing at 20,945 yuan per kilogram, marking an increase of 14.42% [1] Group 2 - In Shanghai, the total warehouse inventory showed a net decrease of 3,997 kilograms at Zhongchu Wusong and a decrease of 7,490 kilograms at Waiyun Huadong Hongqiao, while there was an increase of 40,879 kilograms at Zhonggongmei Supply Chain, leading to a total of 603,136 kilograms in Shanghai [2] - In Guangdong, the Shenzhen Weibao warehouse reported a slight decrease of 11 kilograms, contributing to the overall total of 649,643 kilograms [2]

Global Market Overview - The US labor market remains resilient, with expectations of fiscal and monetary easing supporting precious metals during the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing phase. Geopolitical tensions in Iran and increased sanctions on Russian oil are expected to drive oil prices significantly higher [2][9]. - In fixed income, the 10-year US Treasury yield recorded 4.18%, down 1 basis point this week, while the US dollar index rose by 0.69% to 99.1. [2][9]. - In equity markets, South Korea, Vietnam, and Germany saw significant stock market gains, while the A-share index, excluding Hong Kong, rose across the board, with the Sci-Tech 50, CSI 1000, and North Star 50 indices leading in gains. Conversely, Argentina and India experienced notable declines [2][9]. - In commodities, gold prices increased by 3.68%, and geopolitical risks led to a 3.74% rise in oil prices this week [2][9]. Focus on US Stock-Bond Correlation - The long-term correlation between US stocks and bonds has turned negative, relying on sustained low inflation. Since 2025, the correlation has shown a slight decline from high levels. If oil prices remain low, US inflation is expected to stay low in 2026, allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain room for rate cuts. The rolling three-year correlation between US stocks and bonds is anticipated to continue declining, improving the hedging effect of bonds against stocks [2][14]. - However, geopolitical factors, such as escalating tensions in the Middle East and new sanctions on Russian oil, could lead to a significant rise in oil prices, potentially keeping the stock-bond correlation high and undermining the hedging effectiveness of bonds [2][14]. Global Fund Flows - In the past week, global funds saw a significant outflow of $12.07 billion from US equity funds, while $14.18 billion flowed into US fixed income funds. Additionally, there was a continued inflow of funds into the Chinese stock market. Notably, there was a significant outflow from Chinese fixed income funds, with a marked inflow into the FTSE 3x Short China ETF [3]. Valuation Metrics - As of January 9, 2026, the valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index exceeded that of the S&P 500 and France's CAC 40, reaching 93.2% of the past decade's levels. However, in absolute terms, the valuations of the Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index remain significantly lower than those of US stocks [4][22]. - From an ERP perspective, the ERP percentiles for Brazil's São Paulo, CSI 300, and the Shanghai Composite remain high, indicating that the Chinese stock market still offers good allocation value compared to global markets [4][22]. Risk-Adjusted Returns - As of January 9, 2026, the risk-adjusted return percentiles for the S&P 500 rose to 60%, while the Nasdaq's risk-adjusted return percentile increased from 37% to 46%. The CSI 300's risk-adjusted return percentile decreased from 94% to 91%. The risk-adjusted return percentile for GSCI precious metals remains at 100% [24][22]. Market Sentiment Indicators - In the US market, the S&P 500 is above its 20-day moving average, with a decrease in the put-call ratio compared to the previous week. In the A-share market, the options market shows a significant increase in positions for the 4750-5000 range of the CSI 300, alongside a notable rise in implied volatility, indicating that the market is pricing in an upward trend for A-shares [26][36].

2012 31 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 元旦假期后的首周国内商品大幅上涨，工业品、农产品均出现了普涨的行情。主要原因，一是美国对委内瑞拉的军事行动引发市场对于大国之间资源争夺的预期； | | | 二是，美国数据好坏参半，美联储降息仍有空间；三是，国内扩大内需+反内卷政策共同推动商品价格重心的抬升。 | | 海外 | 1）ISM公布的数据显示，美国12月ISM制造业PMI降至47.9，创2024年以来最大萎缩幅度，连续10个月低于50荣枯线，表明制造业持续收缩。12月ISM非制造业 指数升至54.4，显著高于预期与前值，反映出美国的服务业的景气度在上升，服务业的扩张一定程度上对冲了制造业疲软对整体经济的拖累。短期来看，制造业 | | | 疲软预计仍将延续，难以快速出现拐点。中长期来看，关税不确定性缓解及相关法案落地或为资本支出提供支撑，但需注意制造业持续疲软对整体经济的影响。2） | | | 美国12月ADP就业人数新增4.1万人，相比11月份减少的2.9万人有所回升，但少于预期的4.9万人，12月份就业出现反弹，主要由教育和健康服务业以及休闲和酒 | | | ...

Macro Economic Overview - The ICHI Composite Economic Index has expanded for six consecutive weeks, indicating good economic resilience at the end of the year, although the expansion rate has slightly decreased from previous highs[1] - The Consumer Confidence Index remains in the expansion zone, supported by robust seasonal consumption at year-end[1] - The Investment Confidence Index has continuously improved and stabilized in the expansion zone, positively supporting domestic demand[1] - The Export Confidence Index is slightly below the threshold, reflecting a marginal improvement but overall remains weak due to external demand slowdown and year-end order constraints[1] - The Production Confidence Index has retreated to near the threshold, indicating weakened expansion momentum, likely due to seasonal slowdowns in industrial activity[1] Price Trends - In December 2025, China's CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 1.2%, indicating a stable price environment for macroeconomic operations in 2026[2] - The PPI fell by 1.9% year-on-year, reflecting a dual characteristic of demand recovery and structural improvement in the price system[2] - Service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating that demand recovery is extending into the service sector[2] - PPI has risen for three consecutive months, with prices in coal, lithium batteries, cement, and new energy vehicles showing recovery, reflecting effective capacity management and market order adjustments[2]

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price experienced a significant increase of 4.10% last week, closing at $4,510.26 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][5]. Geopolitical Risks vs. Commodity Index Rebalancing - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Iran, and the rebalancing of commodity indices were the two main themes affecting the precious metals market last week [2]. - Protests in Iran against rising prices and currency devaluation have led to unrest, with threats from U.S. President Trump to intervene, further escalating tensions [3]. - The U.S. government's renewed interest in Greenland has drawn international criticism, particularly from Denmark and other European nations, highlighting the geopolitical landscape's impact on market sentiment [3]. Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The influx of "safe-haven" funds remains a key factor supporting the rise in gold prices amid ongoing geopolitical headlines [4]. - Despite potential selling pressure from the rebalancing of major commodity indices, the focus may shift back to structural factors that drove price increases last year once this process concludes [4]. - The market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of a breakthrough in gold prices, as indicated by the recent Kitco News survey showing a bullish consensus among Wall Street analysts [6][7]. Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Commentary - The U.S. ISM manufacturing report indicated strong economic conditions, temporarily dampening expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but this sentiment quickly reversed following a disappointing non-farm payroll report [5]. - Upcoming inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, is anticipated to significantly influence market sentiment and gold prices in the coming week [5]. - The Federal Reserve's officials are expected to provide insights on interest rate changes, which could further impact market dynamics [5]. Price Levels and Projections - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices have stabilized above the $4,500 per ounce mark, with short-term resistance at $4,550 and potential targets of $4,630 to $4,700 [7]. - Domestic gold prices face short-term resistance in the range of 108-1038 CNY per gram, with mid-term targets pointing towards 1100-1200 CNY per gram [8]. - Silver prices are projected to face short-term resistance at $81-$85 per ounce, with mid-term targets of $99-$102 per ounce [8].

市场对于美联储独立性担忧也重新被点燃。 据新华社报道，近日，美国联邦检察官已对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）展开刑事调查，调查涉及 美联储办公大楼的翻修工程等。 这标志着美国总统特朗普与鲍威尔的冲突，在搁浅数月后，重新再升级。这一最新发展，叠加特朗普最新绕开美 联储，试图行政干预重要利率水平的举措，令市场对于美联储独立性担忧也重新被点燃。 瑞士百达财富管理美国高级经济学家崔晓此前曾对一财记者表示，特朗普长期施压美联储的做法，可能适得其 反。通过施压美联储降息，除了影响短期利率，特朗普还有一个目的是想让长期利率下行。但假设他选了一个不 顾经济发展形势，一味听他话去降息的美联储主席，长期利率不仅不会下行，反而会上行，因为市场会预计通胀 将攀升。"事实上，此前特朗普升级冲突时的市场预演就是如此反应的，长期美债收益率飙升，收益率曲线陡峭 化。"她补充称。 特朗普与美联储之争重新升级 据报道，相关官员表示，这项调查包括分析鲍威尔的公开声明和审查支出记录，已获得特朗普的盟友、检察官珍 妮·皮罗的批准。 此前，鲍威尔多次拒绝特朗普的降息要求，遭到后者批评。特朗普上周接受美媒采访时表示，他已经决定了未 ...

美联储巴尔金表示，最新的就业数据显示就业增长温和，招聘环境持续低迷。 今日周一(1月12日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于20073一线上方，今日开盘于18800元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报20651元/千克，上涨12.82%，最高触及20685元/千克，最低下探18743元/千克，目前 来看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 沪银长期多头格局依然主导，本周沪银的支撑在20000，19300点，看涨不追高，沪银溢价扩大至1600 元/克，国内情绪再升温，银价继续走高。沪银主力合约参考运行区间19100-20450区间。 美国劳工统计局周五公布的数据显示，上个月雇主新增了5万个工作岗位，失业率小幅下降至4.4%。巴 尔金说："适度的就业增长环境与适度的劳动力供应增长环境之间的这种微妙平衡似乎仍在继续，这令 人鼓舞。"他表示，美联储决策者必须继续关注失业率上升和通胀居高不下的风险。 "通胀率已经连续近五年高于我们的目标水平。虽然比两三年前的情况好得多，但肯定还没有完全达到 目标，"巴尔金说，"过去一年失业率有所上升，就业增长也比较缓慢。所以我认为，这两方面都需要密 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international oil prices has created a stark contrast between rising global costs and the anticipated domestic price drop, reflecting the complexities of current economic conditions and consumer sentiment [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On January 10, WTI crude oil futures closed at $59.12 per barrel, up 2.35%, while Brent crude rose 2.18% to $63.34 per barrel [3]. - The unexpected increase in oil prices is attributed to a combination of weak U.S. non-farm employment growth and a paradoxical drop in the unemployment rate to 4.4% [3][4]. - The market is experiencing a tug-of-war between short-term pessimism and long-term optimism regarding interest rate cuts, which is influencing oil price stability [4]. Group 2: Domestic Fuel Prices - The next round of domestic oil price adjustments is expected to decrease by 80 yuan per ton, translating to a potential drop of 5-7 cents per liter [6]. - Current fuel prices across various regions in China show significant variation, with 92 gasoline prices ranging from 6.53 to 7.82 yuan per liter [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Context - The economic landscape is characterized by uncertainty, with questions surrounding whether inflationary pressures will lead to further increases in energy prices or if underlying economic weakness will negatively impact commodity performance [8]. - The oil price serves as a critical indicator of economic health, reflecting either recovery or stagnation, as consumers and investors navigate a landscape of unpredictability [8].

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.882, while spot gold opened at $4509.80 per ounce and is currently trading at approximately $4578.39 per ounce. Gold T+D is trading around 1022.00 CNY per gram, and the Shanghai gold main contract is at 1025.06 CNY per gram [1][1]. - On the previous trading day, the US dollar index rose by 0.26% to 99.130, and spot gold increased by 0.71% to $4509.13 per ounce. Other precious metals saw mixed results, with spot silver rising by 3.89% to $79.95 per ounce, platinum decreasing by 0.57% to $2268.50 per ounce, and palladium increasing by 1.35% to $1818.27 per ounce [1][1]. Inventory Data - As of January 9, COMEX gold inventory stands at 1129.43 tons, a decrease of 2.34 tons from the previous trading day. COMEX silver inventory is at 13677.47 tons, down by 85.19 tons [2][2]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings are at 1064.56 tons, a reduction of 2.57 tons from the previous day, while SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 93.05 tons to 16308.48 tons [2][2]. Economic Indicators - In December, the US non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000, with revisions in October and November showing a total downward adjustment of 76,000 jobs. The unemployment rate for December is recorded at 4.4% [4][4]. - Following the non-farm payroll report, the swap market indicates a zero probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January [4][4]. Geopolitical Developments - Tensions with Iran are escalating, with Iranian officials warning that US bases and troops could become "legitimate targets" if provoked. President Trump has threatened to intervene in Iran, considering various options for action [5][5]. - In Venezuela, Trump has canceled plans for a second wave of attacks and is pressuring major oil companies to invest $100 billion in the country, with Venezuela offering 30 million barrels of oil to the US [5][5].