浦银国际研究 宏观洞察 | 宏观经济 月度美国宏观洞察：关税大致尘 埃落定，9 月剑指重启降息？ 特朗普关税政策更新——"新关税框架"已浮现，仍需关注行业关税和 中美谈判。虽然印度、瑞士、加拿大和墨西哥尚未与美国达成协议，但 是随着美国接连和日本和欧盟两大贸易伙伴达成协议，以及新关税税率 的公布，关税政策的不确定性显著下降。然而，我们并不认为关税风险 已经完全化解。接下来行业关税和中美贸易谈判将会是美国关税政策不 确定性的重点所在：首先，自特朗普今年上任以来，美国商务部启动的 "232 调查"数量显著增加。短期来说，芯片和药品的调查结果和潜在 关税加征的影响不容小觑。中期来看，我们不能排除有更多行业被卷入 "232 调查"的可能性，这将继续牵动市场对关税问题的担忧，尽管整 体风险或已显著小于此前对"对等关税"全部实施的担忧。其次，中美 关税谈判或仍存在变数。中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明的公布过程 较为曲折。 美国经济数据回顾——7 月通胀略微回升但符合预期；实体经济数据喜 忧参半。美国核心 CPI 通胀率 7 月微升。关税对商品价格的影响正在逐 渐显露，不过相对 6 月数据并未显著增强。7 月数据最为惹眼的 ...

加拿大皇家 银行资本市场驻澳大利亚和新西兰首席经济学家王素林说，美联储的政治化在最近几个月 愈演愈烈，加剧了美国较高的风险溢价，而预算赤字和债务不断上升、政府难以预测、投资者正在重新 评估美元敞口，都加剧了这种溢价。尽管库克事态发展的条件反射性反应对国债的前端收益率略有正面 影响，但如果在特朗普政府的胁迫下，美联储最终妥协，在通胀居高不下的背景下降息，这种情况将不 会持续下去。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The "stagflation-like" environment restricts the upside of copper prices, but the dovish Fed statement on August 22 boosted market expectations of a September rate cut, thus lifting copper prices. The inflation pressure may not prevent the restart of rate cuts, but the actual rate cut幅度 is uncertain. The key lies in whether the inflation caused by tariffs is a one-time shock. - Fundamentally, the supply-demand contradiction of copper remains the main line, with a tight supply situation. The copper price is expected to be range-bound in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is facing a game between short-term supply disruptions and long-term overcapacity. The price of the main contract is expected to be in the range of 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton this week, and short positions can be considered at high prices. - The aluminum market is under pressure from the supply-demand structure, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. The short-term aluminum price is expected to be volatile, with the main contract reference range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of the aluminum alloy market are showing marginal improvement, and the social inventory has decreased. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the cost. The demand for communication die-casting has increased, while the automotive sector is still weak. The spot price is expected to remain relatively firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to converge. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is loose, and the demand is weak, which limits the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. However, the decline in overseas inventories provides support for prices. The short-term zinc price is expected to be volatile and stronger due to improved rate cut expectations, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The Fed's dovish signal has pushed up tin prices. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short-selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to remain high and volatile [12]. Nickel - The macro sentiment has improved, and the cost provides some support. The supply is expected to be loose, but the pace is slow. The short-term nickel price is expected to be range-adjusted, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - The cost of stainless steel provides support, but the weak spot demand restricts the market. The short-term price is expected to be range-bound, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a tight balance. The supply contraction expectation is gradually being realized, and the demand is showing a steady and optimistic trend. The short-term price is expected to fluctuate widely around 80,000 yuan/ton [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.72% to 79,395 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was -49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 202.58 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.47%. - The domestic social inventory decreased by 8.00% to 12.30 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.34% to 20,780 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was -1,354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 127.8 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.40%. - The LME inventory decreased by 0.17% to 47.9 million tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price increased by 0.49% to 20,550 yuan/ton. - The 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton to -20 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In July, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 62.50 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.63%. - The regenerated aluminum alloy social inventory decreased by 0.28% to 3.51 million tons [7]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.50% to 22,310 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was -1,766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 89.74 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.03%. - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 2.29% to 13.85 million tons [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.39% to 269,700 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 52 dollars/ton to 50 dollars/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.71%. - The SHFE tin inventory decreased by 3.86% to 7,491 tons [12]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.58% to 121,250 yuan/ton. - The futures import profit and loss was -1,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 677 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel product production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons. - The SHFE nickel inventory increased by 2.93% to 26,962 tons [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price increased by 0.77% to 13,100 yuan/ton. - The 2510 - 2511 month - to - month spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to -60 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.61% to 50.45 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 1.67% to 82,500 yuan/ton. - The 2509 - 2511 month - to - month spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.41%. - The lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 2.01% to 97,846 tons [18].

Group 1 - The unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which has never seen a president remove a member of its board since its establishment in 1913 [1][4] - The market reacted negatively, with the dollar index falling by 0.3% to 98.187, and the Japanese yen and gold prices rising as investors sought safe-haven assets [1][2] - Analysts suggest that Trump's actions could undermine the credibility of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar outlook [2][6] Group 2 - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries has steepened, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.2887% and the 30-year yield increasing by 3.3 basis points to 4.922%, while the 2-year yield fell to 3.694% [2] - Major stock indices in Asia and Europe experienced declines, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) down by 0.2% and the Nikkei index falling by 1.3% [2] - Market analysts express concerns that Trump's actions could lead to a loss of trust in U.S. assets, which have historically been viewed as safe investments [2][6] Group 3 - Gold prices surged to $3,386.27 per ounce, the highest level since August 11, driven by expectations of continued interest rate cuts and inflation hedging [3] - The political implications of Trump's actions are evident, with bipartisan reactions highlighting the divide in perspectives on the Federal Reserve's independence and its role in economic policy [4][6] - Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence for effective monetary policy, warning that Trump's influence could lead to adverse economic outcomes [6]

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a sell-off in dollar assets and a rise in safe-haven assets like gold and yen [1][2][4]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the dollar index fell by 0.3% to 98.187, with the dollar depreciating against the yen by 0.4% to 147.24 and the euro appreciating by 0.3% to 1.165 [4]. - U.S. Treasury yields saw a steepening of the yield curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.2887% from 4.275% at the previous close, while the 30-year yield increased by 3.3 basis points to 4.922% [4]. - U.S. stock futures declined, impacting major Asia-Pacific indices, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) down by 0.2% and the Nikkei index down by 1.3% [5]. Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - Experts express that Trump's actions represent an unusual infringement on the Federal Reserve's independence, potentially undermining the credibility of the dollar as a safe investment [2][6]. - The market is adjusting its expectations for earlier rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with an 84% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September according to CME FedWatch [6]. Political Reactions - The political divide is evident, with Republican Senator Rick Scott supporting Trump's actions as a means to restore trust in the Federal Reserve, while Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren condemns it as a blatant violation of the Federal Reserve Act [7].

Group 1 - Economists warn that developed economies may be entering an era of fiscal dominance, where fiscal demands dictate monetary policy, potentially leading to higher inflation and financial risks [1][4] - The U.S. is highlighted as a key example, with President Trump pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to align with his fiscal policies, suggesting a significant reduction in the benchmark rate [1][2] - Other developed economies, such as the EU and Germany, are also adopting expansive fiscal policies, with significant funding plans for defense and infrastructure [4][6] Group 2 - Japan exemplifies a long-standing fiscal dominance, with its central bank implementing policies that support fiscal stimulus [5] - Historical precedents indicate that extreme fiscal dominance can lead to severe inflation crises, as seen in Germany in the 1920s and Argentina in the late 20th century [6] - Concerns over persistent fiscal expansion and potential political interference in monetary policy are reflected in rising long-term bond yields in developed markets [6][7] Group 3 - The OECD projects that sovereign debt issuance among its member countries will reach a record $17 trillion by 2025, with rising debt servicing costs as a percentage of GDP [7] - The shift to fiscal dominance may create favorable conditions for emerging markets, making their assets more attractive in the current environment [8] - The combination of fiscal dominance and financial repression under the Trump administration is expected to negatively impact the U.S. dollar while benefiting commodities and certain sectors in the U.S. and Europe [8]

欧元兑美元在日线图上逼近1.1750附近的趋势线阻力，此处可能吸引空头入场，目标看向1.1575支撑 位。若成功突破，则可能开启新一轮上涨。在4小时图上，上行动能有所减弱，价格或在1.1600支撑位 与趋势线之间盘整。 周二（8月26日）亚盘早盘，欧元兑美元上涨，目前交投于1.16附近，截止北京时间10:45分，欧元兑美 元报价1.1632，涨幅0.15%，上一交易日欧元兑美元收盘为1.1615。欧元区7月CPI数据与初值一致，整 体通胀率同比维持在2.0%，符合预期。 核心通胀环比下降0.2%，同比涨幅为2.3%，显示通胀粘性并未出现明显加速迹象。这一数据在一定程 度上缓解了市场对通胀再度抬头的担忧，也使得投资者对欧洲央行短期内进一步采取紧缩政策的预期维 持在相对温和的水平。欧洲央行行长拉加德稍早在日内瓦发表讲话，她指出，尽管近期达成的多项经贸 协议有助于稳定外部环境，但并未完全消除全球经济面临的不确定性。与此同时，她对今年第四季度的 经济增长预期作出了更为谨慎的判断，暗示欧元区可能面临一定的下行压力。不过，拉加德也同时肯 定，今年以来欧元区经济在面对多重冲击时表现出一定的韧性。总体来看，拉加德的发言姿态中 ...

长期逻辑：若9月降息最终落地，黄金中长期吸引力将增强；若通胀反弹或就业意外强劲，美联储可能维持利率不变，黄金短期将承压。 2、关键经济数据：PCE与非农成"试金石" 黄金周一（8月25日）早盘开盘后开始震荡下跌，在跌至3359附近后止跌开始震荡上涨。欧盘在3371-3362区间内反复震荡。美盘上涨3376附近后转跌，尾盘 保持慢跌走势，日线收出一根小阴线。 一、基本面 1、美联储政策：降息预期成关键变量 鲍威尔表态影响：上周五杰克逊霍尔研讨会上，美联储主席鲍威尔指出美国就业市场风险上升、通胀压力仍存，但未敲定具体政策，言论被解读为"鸽派"， 推动芝加哥商品交易所FedWatch工具显示的9月降息概率飙升至84%（一个月前为61.9%），曾支撑金价上涨；但市场后续担忧"数据若不及预期可能导致降 息推迟"，又引发谨慎回调。 周五PCE数据：作为美联储偏好的通胀指标，市场预计核心通胀率将升至2023年底以来最高点2.9%。若数据高于预期，将质疑降息紧迫性，打压金价；若低 于预期，将强化宽松预期，推动金价反弹。 后续非农数据：一周后的8月非农就业报告将进一步影响政策路径，当前美国就业市场已现走弱迹象，7月新建独栋住宅 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting indicates the start of a new round of interest - rate cut cycles by the Fed, setting the tone for a rate cut in the September interest - rate meeting [2] - Given the current weak employment data in the US and the limited increase in the consumer price index, there is a possibility of an unexpected 75 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed this year [3] - In the context of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations, the increase in silver prices will be significantly greater than that of gold, and the gold - silver ratio will be further downwardly adjusted. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips, with the reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract being 770 - 794 yuan/gram and that for the Shanghai Silver main contract being 9135 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Price and Index Data - Shanghai gold rose 0.13% to 779.92 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 0.04% to 9348.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 0.25% to 3409.00 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver fell 0.41% to 38.55 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.28%, and the US dollar index was 98.44 [2] - Various precious - metal related prices, yields, and index data, such as the prices of Au(T + D), London gold, etc., and changes in bond yields, stock indices, and currency exchange rates are presented in detail in the table [4] 2. Key Data of Gold and Silver - A detailed summary of key gold and silver data, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and their daily changes and historical quantiles for COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, and other markets, is provided [7] 3. Charts and Their Analysis - Multiple charts show the relationships between precious - metal prices and other factors, such as the relationship between COMEX gold prices and the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volumes, and open interests, as well as the near - far - month structure and internal - external price differences of gold and silver [9][12][17][23][42][54]

Core Viewpoint - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting signals a potential interest rate cut next month, but upcoming employment and CPI data will be crucial in determining the actual decision [1][3][4] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Powell emphasized the increasing risks from high borrowing costs that could harm the labor market, indicating a possible rate cut as early as September [4] - The futures market currently prices in a 75%-80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September [3][5] - Despite Powell's strong signals, several Federal Reserve officials caution that the upcoming employment and CPI data will be key in deciding the September rate cut [3][5] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. Treasury and stock markets surged, with the yield spread between 2-year and 30-year Treasury bonds widening to its highest level in nearly four years [3][7] - Investors are favoring short-term U.S. Treasuries in anticipation of a return to accommodative monetary policy, as they are seen to have more certain upside potential compared to long-term bonds [8] Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Concerns about inflation are limiting the gains in long-term bonds, as the market remains cautious about the Fed's ability to manage inflation risks [6][8] - The current inflation rate is closer to 3%, which is above the Fed's target of 2%, raising doubts about the timing of any rate cuts [3][5]