交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年6月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美谈判取得进展，互降关税90天窗口期。ICAC6月报：25/26年度产量 2600万吨，消费2570万吨。海关：5月纺织品服装出口262.1亿美元，同比0.6%。4月份 我国棉花进口6万吨，同比减少82.2%；棉纱进口12万吨，同比减少1.4%。农村部5月 25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存853万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14852，基差1332（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部25/26年度5月预计期末库存853万吨；偏 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with targets set at $3435 and $3500, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3][8]. Market Performance - On June 12, gold opened at $3356.10 per ounce, reached a high of $3398.86, and closed at $3386.58, marking a daily increase of $30.48 or 0.91% [1]. - The daily trading range was $60.28, indicating significant volatility [1]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index fell, supporting gold prices, as both employment and inflation data showed signs of cooling, reinforcing expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [3][7]. - The market anticipates a nearly 60% probability of a rate cut in September, despite strong non-farm payroll data that reduced immediate cut expectations [5][7]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East, are fueling market risk aversion, which benefits gold prices [8]. - Recent comments from former President Trump advocating for a 200 basis point rate cut have further strengthened the outlook for gold [3][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold remains in a bullish trend, supported by the 5-month moving average, despite recent volatility [10]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has rebounded from key support levels, with expectations to reach the upper Bollinger Band at $3500 [11]. - The daily chart reflects a bullish outlook, with gold stabilizing above the 5-10 day moving averages and aiming for targets of $3435 and $3500 [13]. Investment Strategy - The market is advised to look for buying opportunities at support levels around $3371 or $3360, while resistance levels are noted at $3400 or $3435 [13].

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have significantly increased due to various factors including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and a decrease in U.S. oil inventories [2][4][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil contracts rose by $2.90, a 4.34% increase, closing at $69.77 per barrel; WTI contracts increased by $3.17, a 4.88% rise, closing at $68.15 per barrel [2]. - The market reacted to news of U.S. personnel withdrawal from the Middle East, which heightened geopolitical tensions and led to a 5.2% spike in WTI crude futures [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations are critical; successful talks could ease tensions and lower oil prices, while failure may lead to further price increases [2][6]. - Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil consumption passes, poses a risk of supply disruptions if tensions escalate [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation remains moderate, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.4% year-on-year in May, which supports oil prices [6]. - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.64 million barrels to 432.415 million barrels as of June 6, indicating a tightening supply [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the oil market may remain volatile due to ongoing geopolitical risks, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and OPEC's production decisions [7]. - The expectation for Brent crude oil prices is to range between $60 and $70 per barrel for the year, with potential short-term rebounds but a long-term bearish outlook [7].

Group 1 - The market may experience short-term stability as Trump's intimidation tactics are less impactful than before [3] - Recent US-China negotiations have achieved a phase result that calms global markets, but Trump's claims of significant achievements are viewed skeptically [3][4] - Trump announced potential high tariffs on ten economies if agreements are not reached by early July, causing immediate reactions in the US capital markets [4] Group 2 - The perceived benefits from the US-China negotiations include access to rare earth products and a significant disparity in tariff increases, with the US imposing 55% and China 10% [3][4] - The negotiations took place in the UK, which is seen as a high-stakes posture from China, and the temporary nature of rare earth supply agreements may not favor the US in the long run [4]

Group 1 - International oil prices surged due to improved risk appetite from US-China trade talks and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][2] - The US inflation rate remained relatively stable, with May CPI rising 2.4% year-on-year, which helped stabilize market sentiment and supported oil prices [3] - A decrease in US crude oil inventories, reported at 432.415 million barrels, down by 3.64 million barrels, contributed positively to the oil market as summer demand approaches [4] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly the stalled US-Iran negotiations and potential military conflicts, continues to support the oil market [2] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by the ongoing US-China trade negotiations, which are expected to provide a favorable outlook for oil prices [1][4] - Despite short-term potential for price increases due to geopolitical tensions, long-term concerns about economic and energy demand may pressure oil prices [6]

| 市呈现小幅牛陡走势。短期来看，资金面紧张预期走弱，债市有望偏强震荡。 | | --- | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 06 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 自 | 点评 6 月以来，中国资产表现偏强，股债齐升，计价 6 月可能存在的政策变化。 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | | 震荡 | | | 其一，中美沟通进度超市场预期。6 月 9 日，中美将在伦敦开展新一轮贸易 | | | | 谈判，具体内容可能超过市场预期；其二，长效消费刺激政策受到市场关注， | | | | 消费促进政策思路可能出现变化；其三，6 月中下旬陆家尊论坛可能包含深 | | | | 化资本市场改革的进一步举措。近期公布的 PPI 数据显示，我国经济通胀水 | | | | 平仍处于低位，二季度基本面可能转化为"弱现实、强预期"，市场风格中消 | | | | 费和科技可能仍然占优。财报方面，一季度，A 股上市公司全市场营收增速 | | | | 跌幅连续 3 个季度收窄，但仍低于政策利率，净利 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The central bank uses short - and medium - term liquidity management tools to keep mid - year liquidity reasonably abundant. Short - term fluctuations in stock indices are dominated by overseas factors. The results of short - term Sino - US trade negotiations are relatively positive, leading to a relatively strong market oscillation. However, caution is needed regarding the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs when operating [4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Monetary Market - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.37 with a 0.48bp increase, DR007 at 1.53 with a 2.13bp increase, GC001 at 1.53 with a 2.00bp increase, GC007 at 1.58 with a 2.50bp increase. SHBOR 3M was 1.64 with a - 0.30bp change, LPR 5 - year was 3.50 with a - 10.00bp change. 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds were at 1.41 (-0.50bp), 1.50 (-0.60bp), and 1.64 (-1.45bp) respectively, and 10 - year US treasury bonds were at 4.47 (-2.00bp) [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 1640 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 2149 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 509 billion yuan. This week, 9309 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 1265 billion and 1350 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and Friday respectively [3][4] 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market - **Stock Index Performance**: The CSI 300 rose 0.75% to 3894.6, the SSE 50 rose 0.59% to 2692.1, the CSI 500 rose 0.61% to 5792.9, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.4% to 6186.5. The trading volume of the two markets was 12555 billion yuan, a decrease of 1599 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher [5] - **Futures Contracts**: For futures contracts, IF, IH, IC, and IM of the current - month contracts had certain price changes and volume/position changes. For example, IF current - month contract rose 1.0%, its trading volume increased 13.3%, and its open interest increased 5.1% [5] - **Premium and Discount Situation**: The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are provided. For example, the IF current - month contract had a premium rate of 16.48% [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Global market shows a differentiated pattern, with the Fed's rate - cut expectations constrained by inflation resilience and the ECB hinting at the end of the easing cycle. The equity market is supported by loose funds, but external disturbances and volume - energy sustainability should be watched [3]. - Crude oil may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but its upside is limited in the long - term without major geopolitical impacts on supply [4]. - Gold is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, and investors should pay attention to US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [5][6]. - Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation, and US inflation data will affect its short - term direction [7]. - Most chemical products are expected to have a weak or bearish short - term trend, with supply - demand contradictions and inventory changes being important influencing factors [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. - Rubber may have a weak rebound after the short - term negative factors are realized, but it is still affected by the oversupply situation [17][18]. - Methanol's futures price is in an oscillation range, and the progress of Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment should be watched [19]. - Agricultural products show different trends. Corn may oscillate in the short - term, peanuts may decline slightly but have limited downside, cotton may be strong in the short - term, and the prices of other agricultural products are also affected by supply - demand and seasonal factors [20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. - Metal prices have different trends. Copper may touch the bubble price line, aluminum may oscillate in a range, alumina shows a weak adjustment, and other metals are also affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and global economic situation [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - Black metal products' prices also vary. Stainless steel may oscillate at a low level, and steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil can be considered for light - position long positions at low prices, while iron ore and coal may oscillate in the short - term [41][42][43][44][45][46] Summary by Industry Macro - Index - Market analysis: Global markets are differentiated. The Fed's rate - cut expectations are constrained, and the ECB hints at the end of the easing cycle. The central bank maintains a "broad credit, stable currency" policy. The equity market is supported by loose funds, with capital flowing to non - banking finance and technology sectors. Index futures show short - covering and a decline in the PCR indicator [3]. - Reference view: Pay attention to Sino - US negotiations and the Fed's policy implementation. Short - term holding along the 5 - day moving average is advisable. Be wary of the risk of insufficient volume energy [3]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The second - round Sino - US negotiations reach a "framework agreement in principle," and the oil price may oscillate strongly. Focus on the key level of $65 per barrel for WTI [4]. - Market analysis: OPEC lowers global demand growth forecasts, and US policies cause concerns about demand. Although US crude oil inventories decline, refined product inventories increase. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increase supply uncertainty, and OPEC+ plans to increase production [4]. - Reference view: Watch whether WTI can break through $65 per barrel in the short - term. In the long - term, the upside is limited without major geopolitical impacts [4]. Gold - Macro and geopolitics: US economic resilience pressures short - term gold prices, but multiple factors support it in the long - term. Policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks limit the downside space, and the Fed's policy also affects the price [5]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold futures warehouse receipts are stable with a slight increase. The spot price has a discount compared to the futures price [6]. - Operation suggestion: Gold is expected to oscillate. Investors should watch US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [6]. Silver - Market price: On June 11, the international spot silver price oscillated narrowly [7]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures warehouse receipts increased significantly. Global economic growth expectations are lowered, and trade tensions ease, reducing the safe - haven demand for silver [7]. - Operation suggestion: Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to US inflation data [7]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The East China spot price decreased, and the basis is positive [8]. - Market analysis: Oil price fluctuations affect PTA costs. PTA device maintenance and restart coexist, with an overall increase in the operating rate and a decrease in inventory days. Polyester and textile loads decline, and weak orders may intensify supply - demand contradictions [8]. - Reference view: It may oscillate bearishly in the short - term [8]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The East China spot price is flat, and the basis is positive [9]. - Market analysis: The supply side shows a slight decline in the overall operating rate and an increase in coal - based production. Demand is weak due to the off - season. Inventories in the East China main port increase, and future arrivals may limit the upside [9]. - Reference view: The price may be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [9]. PVC - Spot information: The East China 5 - type PVC spot price increased, and the ethylene - calcium price difference decreased [10][11]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, but downstream demand is still weak. Inventories decreased. The futures price oscillated at a low level without significant fundamental improvement [10][11]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [11]. PP - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions fluctuate slightly [12]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, and production volume rose. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream orders decreased. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price oscillated at a low level [12]. - Reference view: Demand is weak, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level [13]. Plastic - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions have different changes [14]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The downstream average operating rate changed little. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price may oscillate [14]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price may oscillate in the short - term [14]. Soda Ash - Spot information: The heavy - soda prices in different regions are stable [15]. - Market analysis: The overall operating rate and production volume increased. Factory inventories increased slightly, and social inventories decreased. Demand is average, and the market lacks new drivers [15]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [15]. Glass - Spot information: The 5mm glass prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: The operating rate and production volume decreased slightly. Inventories increased, and demand is weak. The futures price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. Rubber - Market price: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [17]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade negotiations and typhoons affect the price. The supply is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees are in the tapping season. Downstream tire operating rates decline, and trade - war concerns suppress demand, but there is a rebound expectation after the negative factors are realized [17]. - Reference view: Pay attention to downstream operating rates. It may start a weak rebound after short - term negative factors are realized [18]. Methanol - Spot information: The East China spot price increased, and prices in other regions vary [19]. - Market analysis: The futures price increased slightly. Port inventories increased. Supply pressure is high, and demand from MTO devices recovers, while traditional downstream demand is in the off - season [19]. - Reference view: The futures price is in an oscillation range. Watch Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: Corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [20]. - Market analysis: Good weather in US corn - growing areas and Sino - US trade relations affect imports. The domestic market is in the transition period between old and new grains, with tight supply in the short - term. Wheat substitution and weather are key factors. Downstream demand is weak [20][21]. - Reference view: The corn futures price may oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short - term [21]. Peanut - Spot price: Peanut prices in different regions are provided [22]. - Market analysis: The domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase in 2025. The market is in the inventory - consumption period, with low imports and low inventory levels. Demand is in the off - season, but low inventories may support the price [22]. - Reference view: The peanut price may decline slightly in the short - term, but the downside is limited. Band - trading is advisable [22]. Cotton - Spot information: The Chinese cotton spot price index and Xinjiang cotton arrival price are provided [23]. - Market analysis: Sino - US relations ease, boosting the market. In the long - term, cotton supply is expected to be abundant. In the short - term, low imports and low commercial inventories support the price, but downstream demand is weak [23]. - Reference view: The cotton price may be strong in the short - term. Watch whether it can fill the previous gap [23]. Pig - Spot market: The average price of live pigs in major production and sales areas increased slightly [24]. - Market analysis: Farmers resist low - price sales, reducing supply. Demand is weak due to warm weather, and terminal consumption lacks improvement [24]. - Reference view: The live - pig futures price may oscillate weakly. Watch the slaughter situation [24]. Egg - Spot market: The national average egg price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing chickens decreases, and old - hen culling increases, supporting the price. Demand may increase in the tourism and catering industries during the summer vacation, but the plum - rain season suppresses consumption [25]. - Reference view: The egg futures price is undervalued. It is advisable to wait and see [25]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot market: The rapeseed meal price in Fangchenggang increased [27]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is weak due to a small price difference with soybean meal and the off - season. Watch Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [27]. - Reference view: Watch the performance of rapeseed meal futures at the upper pressure level [27]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot market: The rapeseed oil price in Fangchenggang is stable [28]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is neutral, and inventories may remain high in the short - to - medium - term [28]. - Reference view: The rapeseed oil futures price may oscillate near the platform [28]. Soybean No. 2 - Spot information: Import costs of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans are provided [29]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market confidence. Good weather in US soybean - growing areas and the peak season of Brazilian soybean exports affect the price [29]. - Reference view: The soybean No. 2 futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [29]. Soybean Meal - Spot information: Soybean meal prices in different regions are provided [30]. - Market analysis: Pay attention to Sino - US trade talks. Internationally, trade talks boost confidence, and tariffs and weather are key factors. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and downstream demand is weak, but inventory accumulation is slow [30]. - Reference view: The soybean meal futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [30]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Soybean oil prices in different regions are provided [31]. - Market analysis: Internationally, supply pressure and falling oil prices put pressure on soybean oil. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and demand is in the off - season, with inventory accumulation pressure increasing [31]. - Reference view: The soybean oil futures price may oscillate in the short - term [31] Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper increased, and the import copper ore index also rose [32]. - Market analysis: US economic data reduces recession concerns and rate - cut expectations. Global tariffs and domestic policies affect the market. Raw material issues and inventory changes make the market more complex [33]. - Reference view: The copper price may touch the bubble price line. Consider removing defenses based on signals [33]. Aluminum - Spot information: The Shanghai spot aluminum price increased [34]. - Market analysis: The cost of alumina increases, supporting the theoretical cost of electrolytic aluminum. Supply is expected to be in surplus, and demand is in the off - season. Inventories decline, and the spot market is at a premium, but demand limits the upside [34]. - Reference view: The aluminum futures price may oscillate in a range [34]. Alumina - Spot information: The national average alumina price decreased slightly, and prices in different regions vary [35]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market sentiment. Supply slightly decreases as smelters' profits improve. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories start to accumulate. The price is under pressure [35]. - Reference view: The alumina futures price shows a weak adjustment trend [35]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The national and East China spot prices of cast aluminum alloy are stable [36]. - Market analysis: The high price of scrap aluminum supports the cost. Supply is in surplus as the industry expands. Demand from new - energy vehicles and electronics is resilient but limited by tariffs and the global economy. Inventories are high and may continue to accumulate [36]. - Reference view: The cast aluminum alloy futures price may be strong [37]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate are stable [38]. - Market analysis: The upstream raw - material market shows signs of stabilization, supply is stable but the structure is adjusting, and demand is weak. The price may oscillate at the bottom [38]. - Reference view: Conservative investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can trade in the range [38]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon are stable [39]. - Market analysis: Supply increases slightly, and demand is weak as downstream industries cut production or have low operating rates. Inventories are digested slowly, and the price is under pressure. Technically, it may rebound [39]. - Reference view: The industrial silicon futures price may oscillate strongly at the bottom [39]. Polysilicon - Spot information: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [40]. - Market analysis: Supply shows no obvious contraction, and demand is weak overall, with some differentiation. Exports decline. The market's supply - demand contradiction is not alleviated [40]. - Reference view: The polysilicon futures price may oscillate. Watch the previous low - point support [40] Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel coil increased [41]. - Market analysis: Technically, it may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation. Fundamentally, the raw - material market is quiet, and cost supports the price, but weak demand restricts the upside [41]. - Reference view: It may oscillate widely at a low level. Wait and see for now [41]. Rebar - Spot information: The price of rebar in Shanghai is stable [42]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, and demand is in the off - season, but inventories are low and the valuation is low [42][43]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [43]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is stable [44]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, apparent demand recovers, and inventories are low with a low valuation [44]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [44]. Iron Ore - Spot information: The iron ore price index and futures price are provided [45]. - Market analysis: Supply pressure eases as global shipments increase and domestic production rises slightly. Demand weakens as steel - mill operating rates decline, but current iron - water production is still high. Port inventories increase, and demand in the off - season is expected to be weak. Sino - US tariff easing boosts sentiment, but steel - billet exports are uncertain. Non - mainstream ore production cuts support the price, but reduced steel - mill profits may suppress demand [45]. - Reference view: The iron ore futures price may oscillate in the short - term. Watch port inventory