Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Crude Oil - Wednesday saw a rebound in crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and the Fed's interest - rate cut. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Short - term Brent crude is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel. Keep an eye on the US - Venezuela situation and Russia - Ukraine negotiations [1]. Natural Rubber - Overseas supply increase expectations are rising, and upstream cost support is weakening, but the market may have speculative sentiment. Demand from the tire industry is gradually recovering, but overall capacity utilization improvement is limited. Market inventory is being digested. It is expected that rubber prices will fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,500 [4]. Urea - Urea futures fluctuated and closed higher. Shandong Ruixing's production reduction boosted the spot price in the central region. Downstream demand and export orders reduced the inventory pressure. However, the overall supply - demand outlook is weak, and the price rebound space is limited. Short - term urea is expected to continue to fluctuate between 1630 - 1700 [6]. Methanol - Methanol futures oscillated at a low level. The inland supply increased, but profits were weak. The traditional downstream demand increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provided support. Port imports are expected to decline significantly, and the port de - stocking expectation is strengthened, but the current overseas shipments are still high. Continue to pay attention to MTO05 [7]. Polyolefins - The fundamentals of polyolefins show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting. Polypropylene's supply - side maintenance is high, but there is an expectation of an increase. Polyethylene's supply is increasing, and the upstream inventory is still higher than the same period in previous years [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash's supply is high, demand is shrinking, and it is expected to return to the inventory - accumulation pattern. The overall situation is bearish, and short positions can be held. Glass prices were affected by real - estate news, and the current short - term demand has support, but the medium - and long - term outlook is not optimistic [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda's supply and demand are under pressure, and prices are expected to continue to weaken. PVC's supply pressure remains high, demand is weak, and the overall situation is in an oversupply pattern, with prices expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 7000 in the short term. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4500 - 4800 in the short term, and TA5 - 9 can be long - short hedged at a low level. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level, and short - term observation is recommended. Short - fiber prices are expected to follow the raw materials and oscillate weakly. Bottle - chip prices follow the cost and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [16]. LPG No specific view on the trend of LPG is provided in the report, only price, inventory, and开工率 data are presented [19]. Benzene - Styrene - Benzene's short - term supply - demand is weak, and BZ2603 may follow the oil price and styrene fluctuations. Styrene's supply - demand is in a tight balance, but the upside space is limited, and EB01 is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [21]. Summaries by Directory Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On December 10, Brent rose 0.44% to $62.21 per barrel, WTI rose 0.36% to $58.46 per barrel, and SC fell 1.11% to 444.30 yuan per barrel. Some spreads also changed [1]. - **Product Oil**: NYM RBOB fell 0.46%, NYM ULSD rose 0.57%, and ICE Gasoil rose 0.16%. Some spreads of refined oil also changed [1]. - **Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of some refined oil products changed, such as the US gasoline cracking spread fell 3.28% [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rose 1.02%, and the whole - latex basis fell 28.07%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber fell 0.69%, and the non - standard price difference fell 61.68% [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread rose 250.00%, the 1 - 5 spread fell 90.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread rose 50.00% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased in October, while India's production increased. Tire开工率 increased slightly, but domestic tire production and export volume decreased. The import volume of natural rubber decreased, and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased [4]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory increased, while the outbound rate of dry - rubber bonded warehouses decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of general - trade dry - rubber warehouses increased [4]. Urea - **Futures Price**: The main methanol contract fell 0.63%. Some futures contract spreads and主力持仓 also changed [6]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of some upstream raw materials such as anthracite and动力煤 changed slightly [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizer remained stable, and the compound fertilizer - urea ratio fell 0.59% [6]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily production increased, coal - based urea daily production increased, and gas - based urea daily production decreased. The weekly production remained stable, the plant - inventory decreased, and the order - days decreased [6]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices fell. The MA15 spread,太仓基差, and MTO05 changed. The spot prices of some regions remained unchanged [7]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业库存,港口库存, and社会库存 all decreased [7]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: The upstream domestic企业开工率 increased, the MTO装置开工率 increased, and some downstream开工率 changed slightly [7]. Polyolefins - **Futures Price**: L2601 and L2605 prices changed slightly, and PP2601 and PP2605 prices fell. Some spreads and基差 changed [12]. - **Non - Standard Price**: The prices of some non - standard PE and PP products changed [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased, and PE下游加权开工率 decreased slightly. PP装置开工率 decreased slightly, and PP粉料开工率 increased [12]. - **Inventory**: PE企业库存 increased, and PE社会库存 decreased. PP企业库存 decreased, and PP贸易商库存 increased [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The prices of glass in some regions and the prices of glass futures contracts changed. The 01基差 increased [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The prices of soda ash in some regions and the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased. The 01基差 increased [14]. - **Production and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率 increased, the weekly production increased, and the inventory decreased. The浮法日熔量 decreased, and the光伏日熔量 remained unchanged [14]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real - estate changed [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Price**: The prices of some PVC and caustic soda products changed. Some spreads and基差 changed [15]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The overseas quotations of caustic soda and PVC changed, and the export profits also changed [15]. - **Supply**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and the PVC industry increased slightly, and the profits of some production processes decreased [15]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products in the chlor - alkali industry changed [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of some upstream products such as Brent crude oil,石脑油, and PX changed [16]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of some downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY decreased, and the cash flows also changed [16]. - **PX - Related**: The prices and spreads of PX changed [16]. - **PTA - Related**: The prices and spreads of PTA changed. PTA开工率 remained stable, and the processing fee decreased [16]. - **MEG - Related**: The prices and spreads of MEG changed. MEG港口库存 increased, and the综合开工率 decreased slightly [16]. - **开工率 Change**: The开工率 of some industries in the polyester industry chain changed, such as the开工率 of亚洲PX, PTA, and MEG [16]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts and some spreads changed. The spot price of South China increased, and the基差 changed [19]. - **External Price**: The prices of FEI and CP swaps increased [19]. - **Inventory**: LPG炼厂库容比,港口库存, and港口库容比 all decreased [19]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: The upstream主营炼开工率 decreased slightly, and the下游PDH开工率 increased [19]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of some upstream products such as Brent crude oil,石脑油, and pure benzene changed. The spreads of pure benzene also changed [21]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene and its futures contracts changed. The spreads and cash flows also changed [21]. - **Downstream Cash Flow**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports changed [21]. - **开工率 Change**: The开工率 of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of real - estate favorable policies is rising, and the market sentiment has improved. The steel and iron ore futures have rebounded significantly. However, the fundamentals in the off - season still have pressure, and the upward space of the steel futures is limited. The iron water has strong support due to the winter storage replenishment expectation. The coal and coke prices are still suppressed by the warehouse receipt pressure and the expectation of increased imports. The glass and soda ash are in an oversupply situation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Element - Iron water has decreased significantly, and downstream demand has declined. Steel mills are undergoing annual maintenance. Although the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved, the release of replenishment demand is still slow. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month. Port inventories have continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories have increased month - on - month, with overall inventory accumulation pressure. The scrap steel fundamentals have limited contradictions. After the spot price decline, the cost - performance has recovered, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises still has support. It is expected that the scrap steel price will oscillate [3]. Carbon Element - The cost support for coke has weakened, and the expectation of the second - round price cut is strong. However, the coking and steel enterprises have gradually started winter storage replenishment, so there is still fundamental support. The current futures valuation is too low, and there is insufficient driving force for a further significant decline. It is expected to oscillate following coking coal. The upcoming winter storage replenishment of downstream enterprises may gradually improve the fundamentals and market sentiment of coking coal. Based on the expectation that the weakening degree of the coking coal supply - demand pattern is limited, the low - level valuation of the futures is expected to gradually recover [3]. Alloys - For manganese silicon, the cost is firm, which supports the price. However, the market supply - demand is in a loose state, the cost transmission is not smooth, and the driving force for the futures price to rise is insufficient. It is expected that the manganese silicon futures price will mainly oscillate at a low level. For ferrosilicon, the high - level cost supports the bottom of the price, but the market supply - demand is weak, and the difficulty of inventory reduction still exists. The upward space of the futures price needs to be viewed with caution. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will mainly oscillate at a low level [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle - and downstream are moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise. Recently, the decline in coal prices has led to a decline in cost expectations, resulting in weakening cost support. The overall supply - demand of soda ash is still in an oversupply situation. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [7]. Specific Varieties Steel - The expectation of real - estate policy benefits is strengthened, and the futures has rebounded from a low level. The spot market transactions are generally average. Steel mill maintenance has increased, and steel production has declined from a high level. The construction materials demand still has some support, and the overall steel inventory has continued to decline. However, the current steel inventory level is still higher year - on - year, and the inventory reduction speed is difficult to accelerate. It is expected that the futures will oscillate [8]. Iron Ore - Affected by macro - sentiment disturbances, the price oscillates. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival at ports has decreased significantly month - on - month. The demand has declined, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The iron water output may continue to decline seasonally, and the rigid demand support is gradually weakening. The replenishment demand has not been significantly released, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. It is expected that the ore price will oscillate in the short term [8][9]. Scrap Steel - The supply - demand contradictions are limited, and the spot price oscillates. The supply has recovered significantly this week, and the demand from electric furnaces and blast furnaces has changed slightly. The inventory of steel enterprises has increased slightly, and the inventory available days are significantly higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the scrap steel price will oscillate [10]. Coke - The second - round price cut has started, and the futures is under pressure. The supply side has high production enthusiasm, and some coking enterprises' operations are restricted. The demand side has a seasonal decline in iron water production, and the inventory of coking enterprises has increased slightly. The cost support has weakened, and the expectation of the second - round price cut is strong. However, there is still fundamental support, and it is expected to oscillate following coking coal [12]. Coking Coal - The production remains at a low level, and the inventory accumulation of coal mines has slowed down. The domestic supply continues at a low level, and the imported Mongolian coal clearance remains at a high level. The downstream procurement has increased slightly, and the inventory accumulation of upstream coal mines has slowed down. The upcoming winter storage replenishment may improve the fundamentals and market sentiment, and the low - level valuation of the futures is expected to gradually recover [12]. Glass - Affected by policy expectations, the reality is still weak. The supply may decline in the long term, but there is difficult to be a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The demand is weak year - on - year, and the large inventory of middle - stream always suppresses the futures valuation. If there is no further cold repair, the price may have a downward pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly if there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, otherwise, the price will rise [14]. Soda Ash - The warehouse receipts are still increasing, and the price oscillates at a low level. The supply is expected to increase month - on - month, the demand for heavy soda is expected to weaken, and the procurement of light soda has not changed much. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline [17]. Manganese Silicon - The cost price trend is strong, but the supply - demand is loose, suppressing the futures. The cost of manganese ore is strong, the demand from steel mills is weak, and the supply is difficult to shrink significantly. It is expected that the manganese silicon futures price will mainly oscillate at a low level [17][18]. Ferrosilicon - The cost reduction space is limited, and the supply - demand is weak, limiting the increase. The cost has support, the demand from steel mills and the metal magnesium industry is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will mainly oscillate at a low level [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. - The decline in crude oil and coal prices has weakened the cost - end of the chemical industry, leading many chemical varieties into a full - line loss situation. There is a possibility that some large - scale petrochemical enterprises will conduct unexpected over - maintenance during the 2026 maintenance season. Therefore, it is risky to continue to chase the decline in the chemical industry, and it may be safer for short - sellers to take profits [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. The EIA has further raised the estimated U.S. crude oil production, and the refining rate has rebounded. The inventory of refined oil products has continued to accumulate, and the total inventory of crude oil and refined oil products has decreased. The production trend of OPEC + is not obvious, and the effective supply of Russian oil has decreased marginally. The market is in a long - short game and is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price is weakly volatile. The price has fallen due to the increase in OPEC + production and the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement. The market expects the end - of - year real estate policy to boost the real estate and infrastructure sectors. The pricing of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong spot, and the high valuation is being revised down. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for the high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is insufficient. The increase in OPEC + production, the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the entry into the off - season have led to a decrease in demand. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It follows the decline in crude oil. The recent strengthening of natural gas has boosted the demand expectation, but it is also facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil products may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost support is poor, and the increase is hindered without further positive support in the market. The international oil price is weakly sorted out, and the naphtha price has followed the decline of the upstream. The PX price has also fallen, and the market's expectation for next year's supply - demand is good, so the adjustment range is limited [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the price follows the decline, while the basis is relatively strong. The upstream cost support is weak, and there is no further positive support in the polyester industry chain. The PTA fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the spot is slightly tight [12][13]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price fluctuates. In reality, the import volume has arrived at the port in large quantities, the port inventory has accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand is weak. In the future, the fundamentals may improve marginally, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [14][15]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price falls during the day. In the short term, the trading is mainly around liquidity issues. In the future, the improvement of the pure benzene pattern will support styrene, but it will also enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period [17]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Pay attention to the device disturbance pattern when the price is continuously at a low level. After continuous decline, the price is in a narrow - range sorting trend. With the price at a low level, the supply side may have a new reduction, and the market sentiment can be moderately restored [18][19]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream polyester raw material price fluctuates and falls, and the short - fiber production and sales are average, and the inventory slightly increases [20][22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: The upstream cost support weakens, and the price center moves down. The continuous decline of the upstream raw material price has weakened the support for polyester bottle chips, and the price has fallen to a low level, resulting in good trading volume [23]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The unloading in coastal areas is less than expected, and the supply - demand in the inland area provides support, so methanol fluctuates and sorts out. The inventory in the port area has decreased, mainly due to the back - flowing of goods to the inland area and the less - than - expected unloading of arriving goods. The short - term near - end is still restricted by factors such as high inventory and concentrated import arrivals [26][27]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: Both support and suppression are significant, and the market fluctuates and sorts out. The daily output of urea is at a relatively high level, and the demand side is supported by off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection. The inventory of enterprises continues to decline, and the market is in a stalemate [27][28]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The maintenance support is still limited, and the expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, so the plastic fluctuates. The oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the real estate policy expectation is slightly released, the self - fundamental support is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [31]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, and PP fluctuates. The real estate policy expectation is released, the oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the PDH profit is still under pressure, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [32]. 3.1.16 PL (Propylene) - **View**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, so PL fluctuates. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, the downstream buying is cautious, and the weak downstream PP price drags down PL through the low powder start - up rate [33]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Marginal enterprises reduce production, and PVC takes profits when the price is low. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. Marginal enterprises have reduced production, but the over - supply expectation has not been reversed. The downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and the export order is light [34]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The price of liquid chlorine drops rapidly, and short positions in caustic soda take profits. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. The supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, the price drop of liquid chlorine has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and the upstream reduction expectation is increasing [35][36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and change values of the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [39] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [40] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the latest values and change values of the inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summary content is provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2577.38, up 0.65%; the industrial product index is 2189.12, up 0.17%; the PPI commodity index is 1356.51, up 0.63% [281]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 10, 2025, is 1107.95, with a daily decline of 0.27%, a decline of 1.59% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.29% in the past month, and a decline of 9.77% since the beginning of the year [282].

Market Overview - The polyester bottle chip market showed a reasonable transaction atmosphere, with orders from December to February trading between 5680-5740 CNY/ton, slightly lower at 5600-5640 CNY/ton, and a few transactions slightly higher at 5760-5780 CNY/ton, indicating price variations among different brands [1] - The domestic polyester bottle chip capacity utilization rate averaged 72.05%, remaining stable week-on-week [1] - The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5321 CNY, an increase of 44 CNY/ton compared to the previous period [1] - The weekly production gross profit for polyester bottle chips was -164 CNY/ton, showing a slight increase of 2.6 CNY/ton week-on-week [1] - As of December 5, the available inventory days for polyester bottle chips recorded 16.13 days, a decrease of 0.36 days or 2.18% from the previous week, while the cumulative increase over the past month was 0.32 days, or 2.02% [1] Institutional Insights - New Century Futures noted that with the continued decline in oil prices and weak cost support, the industry sentiment remains cautious, suggesting that the polyester bottle chip market may maintain a sluggish state [3] - Galaxy Futures reported stable operating rates for bottle chips recently, with no major beverage manufacturers conducting tenders, leading to a tight supply of certain bottle chip sources and an increase in processing fees. However, the supply side is expected to remain relatively loose due to the anticipated production of a new 300,000-ton polyester bottle chip facility by Shandong Fuhai and the expected restart of two 300,000-ton facilities by China Resources Zhuhai in late December, with downstream purchasing activity being slow [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical news - driven rebound in oil prices has limited space and sustainability, and there is a downward drive for oil prices in the medium - to - long - term. Gold and silver markets are affected by US economic data and Fed meetings, and it's not advisable to chase high prices for precious metals before gold breaks through the previous high resistance. The prices of various metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and weather conditions, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [2][3]. Summary by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Peace in the Russia - Ukraine conflict may lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian companies and the release of restricted oil supplies. The US oil production is expected to set a larger - than - expected record. The market is concerned about the IEA's December report. The oil price rebound has mostly been reversed, and there is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year, with a downward drive for oil prices in the medium - to - long - term [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is influenced by multiple factors and follows the trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, and the demand drive is limited. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure is relieved, but the demand lacks highlights. The overall supply - demand pattern is loose, and the short - term is expected to continue the shock pattern [19]. - **Asphalt**: Some refineries in Hebei have launched winter storage contracts, and the price is higher than market expectations. Some refineries in Shandong have switched to producing residue oil, and the supply has tightened, driving the market price up slightly. The decline of BU following the drop in crude oil prices is limited [20]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The number of job openings in the US in October increased, silver reached a new high, and the gold - silver ratio continued to decline. The market focuses on the Fed meeting, and it's not advisable to chase high prices for precious metals before gold breaks through the previous high resistance [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The copper price adjusted overnight, and some positions took profits when the Fed cut interest rates in December. The market is concerned about the adjustment, and some long positions can be held after taking partial profits [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated narrowly overnight. The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, but the short - term fundamental contradiction is limited, and the overbought situation in the technical aspect is being repaired [5]. - **Zinc**: The long positions took profits at high prices, and the Shanghai zinc price tested the annual line support. The domestic zinc ingot output is expected to decrease in December, and the short - term inventory accumulation pressure is not large. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to rebound following the external market in the short - term, with a resistance level at 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: The low price of lead reduces the willingness of holders to deliver to the warehouse. The inventory in the exchange is low, and there is no obvious squeeze - out risk in the near - term. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement at low prices [9]. - **Tin**: The tin price fluctuated overnight. The Shanghai tin price continued to reduce positions and fell below the moving average. Options strategies can be considered [9]. - **Nickel**: No relevant content provided. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price fluctuated. The manganese ore spot price increased, and the port inventory has a structural problem. The silicon - manganese production decreased slightly, and the inventory increased slowly [16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated. The market expects a decrease in coal supply, which may lead to a decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. The demand has some resilience, and the supply decreased slightly, with the inventory decreasing slightly [17]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the domestic arrival decreased. The port inventory continued to accumulate. The demand is in the off - season, and the steel mills' profitability is poor. The iron ore price has a downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term, but there may be short - term fluctuations [13]. - **Coke**: The market expects a second - round price cut for coke. The coking profit is average, and the daily output increased slightly. The inventory decreased slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The output of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the spot auction price mainly decreased. The total inventory increased slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The steel price stabilized overnight. The demand for rebar decreased in the off - season, and the output and inventory decreased. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil both decreased, and the inventory decreased slowly. The steel mills' profitability is poor, and there is a possibility of further production cuts. The black - series products are under pressure in the short - term, and the market is sensitive to macro - policies [12]. Chemicals - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The polycrystalline silicon futures strengthened significantly, driven by the news of the establishment of a polycrystalline silicon consortium. The short - term upward expectation exists, but it needs policy verification to break through the upper limit of the range [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon broke through the previous low. The production reduction effect in the southwest region weakened, and the demand from the organic silicon and polycrystalline silicon industries decreased. The price may continue to decline, but it may be supported at the 8,000 - yuan/ton level [11]. - **Urea**: The urea price decreased slightly. The compound fertilizer enterprises increased their production, and the inventory of urea production enterprises decreased last week. The supply is still abundant, and the market is expected to fluctuate and adjust [21]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price continued to decline at night. The inventory at the port is expected to remain high, and the supply along the coast is sufficient. The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve significantly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly within the range [22]. - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene price continued to decline. The port inventory increased, but the supply - demand pressure may be relieved in the future. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend [23]. - **Styrene**: The crude oil price decreased, and the pure benzene price may fluctuate within a range, which is difficult to drive the styrene price up. However, the supply - demand structure of styrene has not weakened and may support the price [24]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The propylene production enterprises' sales are smooth, but the price increase momentum is insufficient. The polyethylene supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The supply pressure of polypropylene is controllable, but the downstream demand is in the off - season [25]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC price continued to decline. The supply pressure may be relieved if the enterprises are forced to overhaul. The export situation has improved, but the domestic demand is weak. The caustic soda price continued to decline, with high supply and low demand, and the industry inventory is under pressure [26]. - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices fell at night. The PX load decreased slightly, and the PTA output increased slightly. The terminal weaving load continued to decline. The PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and the PTA processing margin is expected to be repaired [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol market was boosted by the news of device shutdowns. The supply increased, and the demand decreased seasonally, resulting in significant inventory accumulation pressure. The long - term pressure still exists [28]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber load is high, and the inventory increased slightly. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. The bottle - chip demand is weak, and the production capacity is in surplus, with the price mainly driven by costs [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean data in the December USDA report remained unchanged. The South American weather has improved, which is beneficial to soybean growth. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased. The strategy is to wait and see the South American weather, and consider going long if the weather deteriorates [33]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet remained unchanged in December. Argentina will reduce the export tax on soybeans and their products. The market expects the palm oil inventory in Malaysia to increase. The short - term view is that the prices of soybean oil and palm oil will fluctuate within a range [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed market is facing the supply impact of new crops. The supply is at its loosest stage, and the demand lacks positive factors. The domestic rapeseed inventory is decreasing, and the import is diversified. The short - term price is expected to be weak [35]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The domestic soybean price is in a sideways shock adjustment. The policy will auction imported soybeans. The short - term US soybean price is in a callback, and the medium - term price is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the domestic soybean spot and policy [36]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures continued to decline in a shock pattern. The US corn export data increased, and the short - term price is expected to be strong. The supply of high - quality corn in the Northeast is tight, and there is a supply - demand mismatch. The short - term 01 contract may decline, and the 03 and 05 contracts can be considered for long - positions after the decline [37]. - **Live Pig**: The live pig 03 contract rebounded slightly, and the far - month contracts were weak. The impact of the epidemic on the pig supply is expected to be limited. The industry needs to reduce inventory, and the pig price may have a second - bottoming in the first half of next year [38]. - **Egg**: The egg futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price increased. The 01 contract price is expected to be weak due to the convergence of futures and spot prices. The far - month contracts have reached a short - term high [39]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price increased slightly. The domestic cotton sales progress is fast, but the downstream orders are weak, which limits the cotton price. The operation strategy is to wait and see [40]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar price fluctuated. The sugar production in India and Thailand is expected to be good. The domestic sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [41]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price fluctuated at a high level. The cold - storage apple sales are average, and the price is strong. The short - term price is strong, but the far - month contracts may face inventory pressure [42]. - **Wood**: The wood futures price fluctuated. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is in the off - season, but the port delivery increased last week. The low inventory supports the price, and the operation strategy is to wait and see [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price decreased at night. The port inventory decreased, and the new - year contract may face less warehouse - receipt pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the operation strategy is to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [44]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Maersk's pricing strategy is cautious, and the downward freight rate center is expected to be around $2400 - 2500/FEU. The loading rate is increasing, but the market lacks strong driving factors. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate [18]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market was mixed, and the stock index futures closed down. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision. The A - share market is expected to be strong in a shock pattern, and investors can increase positions slightly at low prices after the uncertainty is relieved [45]. - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond futures fluctuated and adjusted. The interest - rate bond yields decreased. The market is still cautious, and investors can participate in the rebound of some oversold varieties after the liquidity is restored [46].

Market Overview - On December 9, the styrene market in East China experienced slight fluctuations, with limited port arrivals leading to a forecasted decline in port inventory. The basis rose and then fell, while downstream factory profits were compressed, resulting in a strong resistance to high prices and a decline in trading atmosphere. Styrene industry profits remained acceptable, and Lianyungang Petrochemical resumed production ahead of schedule [1][2]. Profit Analysis - As of December 9, the profit for non-integrated styrene units was approximately 154 yuan per ton [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Styrene supply: As of December 4, the overall production of styrene was 342,400 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons, with an operating rate of 68.85%, up by 1.56% [2]. - Styrene inventory: As of December 8, the total port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 146,800 tons, a decrease of 13,800 tons from the previous period; the commodity inventory was 87,800 tons, down by 8,600 tons [2]. - Downstream utilization rates: As of December 4, the EPS capacity utilization rate was 56.36%, up by 1.61%; the PS capacity utilization rate was 59.0%, up by 1.4%; the ABS capacity utilization rate was 68.3%, down by 2.9% [2]. Market Outlook - There is an expectation of increased planned and unplanned maintenance for styrene units. However, with profits continuing to recover, the overall operating rate may see a slight increase. The resumption of production by Guoen Ruihua may maintain overall supply pressure. Some downstream operations are affected by cold weather, leading to reduced operating loads, compounded by high inventory and profit pressures, limiting demand support. Styrene exports are expected in December, and port inventory may continue to decrease. Overall, the supply-demand structure for styrene is tight, but due to weak cost support and seasonal demand decline, the upward potential for styrene prices is limited. Future attention should be on unit changes and actual export transactions. In the short term, the spot market is characterized by a clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with the market likely influenced by oil prices and macroeconomic disturbances. The strategy suggests a bearish outlook for the short-term EB01 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - Energy and chemical industries continue to show weak and volatile trends, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists [8] - **Market News**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending December 5 decreased by 4.779 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 6.955 million barrels, and refined oil inventory increased by 1.027 million barrels. The EIA raised the 2025 US oil production forecast by 20,000 barrels to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day and lowered the 2026 forecast by 50,000 barrels to an average of 13.53 million barrels per day [8] - **Main Logic**: Oil prices continue to decline within the range, and the volatile pattern persists due to continuous supply pressure and unclear geopolitical directions. The API data shows seasonal characteristics of crude oil destocking and refined oil inventory build - up under high refinery operating rates. After the significant slowdown of OPEC + net quota growth in the fourth quarter, the production trend is not obvious, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Russian oil prices are weakening, and floating storage is rising, resulting in a marginal decrease in effective supply. The long - short game continues, and the market is viewed as volatile [8] - **Outlook**: The expected oversupply pattern in fundamentals continues, and geopolitical expectations fluctuate. The market is expected to remain volatile [8] Asphalt - **View**: Demand expectations deteriorate, and asphalt futures prices decline in a volatile manner [10] - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and there is still a probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Oil prices fell from high levels. The market sentiment was poor, and black varieties declined sharply. After the futures pricing returned to Shandong spot, the focus is on Shandong spot price changes. Shandong spot prices have fallen to around 2,900 yuan, and the high valuation of asphalt continues to be revised down. The supply - demand situation of asphalt is weak, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply shortage problem has been resolved, and the pricing weight of asphalt futures prices has returned to Shandong. Under the background of negative growth in transportation fixed - asset investment, the inventory build - up pressure of asphalt is still high. Currently, the valuation of asphalt relative to fuel oil is normal, but it is still high relative to crude oil, rebar, and low - sulfur fuel oil, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [10] - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [10] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is insufficient [10] - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and there is still a probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. The near - term conflict between Russia and Ukraine is ongoing, but a far - end agreement is still expected. The decline of crude oil from high levels led to the decline of high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil, namely the Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery purchases, and the Palestine - Israel conflict, are currently weak. Especially, Saudi Arabia recently announced that it will purchase Russian LNG, reducing the expected demand for Saudi fuel oil power generation next summer. In the off - season, refinery operating rates have dropped significantly, and refinery processing demand is weak. The US currently uses gas oil feedstock to replace residue feedstock, and it is the off - season for power generation in the Middle East. Fuel oil demand is still weak [10] - **Outlook**: The impact of geopolitical escalation on prices is destined to be short - term. Pay attention to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [10] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil [10] - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. The recent strengthening of natural gas has boosted the demand expectations of low - sulfur fuel oil, supporting the refined oil cracking spread and the oil - gas substitution effect. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong main product attributes and is supported. However, low - sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Its valuation is low and is expected to follow the changes of crude oil. On the fundamental side, the supply pressure of domestic refined oil has increased significantly, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals will probably be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil faces a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The unexpected maintenance of the Kuwait Azur refinery in the fourth quarter and the unstable operation of the Dangote refinery have led to an unexpected decline in low - sulfur fuel oil supply, promoting the recovery of its valuation [10][11] - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is subject to green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand space, but its current valuation is low and it will follow the fluctuations of crude oil [11] PX - **View**: Cost support is weak, and general market sentiment drags down PX prices [12] - **Main Logic**: The sharp decline of international oil prices and the partial return of geopolitical premium due to the expected Russia - Ukraine peace talks have led to the collapse of cost support. PX has also been in a callback pattern recently. The general performance of commodity sentiment during the day has further deepened the decline of PX. Currently, there is no obvious change in the PX supply - demand pattern. The supply remains at a high level, and the polyester load on the demand side still remains at a high level, providing support for PX demand. The short - term PX profitability can still be maintained, and the price will fluctuate [12] - **Outlook**: PX will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. The profit support will increase, and the PXN is expected to be consolidated in the range of [260, 300] [12] PTA - **View**: Upstream cost support is insufficient, prices follow the decline, and the basis is relatively strong [12] - **Main Logic**: The collapse of upstream cost support, the decline of international oil prices in a volatile manner, and the general market sentiment of chemicals have led to a significant decline in the price of PTA following the decline of PX. With the large decline of the upstream, the PTA spot processing fee has been passively repaired. The supply - demand pattern remains relatively tight in the short term, and the basis is relatively strong. The short - term price will mainly fluctuate following the cost [12] - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate and consolidate following the cost, the processing fee will remain within a certain range, and the expansion space is limited. In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long TA02 and shorting PF02. Go long on the TA05 contract at the range of 4,600 - 4,700 yuan [12] Pure Benzene - **View**: The price of pure benzene fluctuates between reality and expectations [12] - **Main Logic**: Recently, the price of pure benzene has been fluctuating, and the long - short game is centered around the reality and expectations of the fundamentals. In reality, a large number of imported pure benzene has arrived at ports recently, and port inventories have rapidly accumulated. There may be storage capacity pressure in the middle and late months. Downstream phenol is clearing inventories at the end of the year, and profits are deteriorating. The production cut of caprolactam has been implemented, and the pressure on pure benzene is still being realized. In terms of expectations, the fundamentals of pure benzene may improve marginally from the first quarter of 2026. Imports will shrink, and some styrene plants will resume production. The inflection point of pure benzene inventory is approaching. Recently, pay attention to the US - Venezuela situation, the Central Economic Work Conference, the realization of port inventory build - up, and the liquidity problem of styrene [12][14] Styrene - **View**: The cancellation of maintenance and the news of inventory overflow in South Korea lead to a weak and volatile styrene market [15] - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the styrene futures market mainly trades around the liquidity problem. After the destocking of styrene port inventories, the available circulation volume is not abundant, and the short - covering in the paper market has brought a relatively strong market. The liquidity problem may continue in December, supporting the futures market. Recently, after the increase in styrene prices, the profits of downstream PS and ABS have been compressed, and both are currently in a slight loss state, but no production cut has been heard yet. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2026, the pattern of pure benzene will improve quarter - on - quarter, supporting styrene. Styrene will enter the seasonal inventory build - up period with a relatively high inventory starting point, but the current raw material inventory of downstream enterprises is low. Pay attention to the restocking at the beginning of the year due to the improvement of market sentiment [15] - **Outlook**: In 2026Q1, pure benzene pattern improvement supports styrene, but high starting inventory and seasonal accumulation need attention. Downstream low raw material inventory may bring early - year restocking [15] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: Pay attention to whether the new supply reduction on the supply side can be realized [16] - **Main Logic**: The price of ethylene glycol has been in a downward trend in a volatile manner again today. The large arrival of goods at the main ports has led to continuous inventory build - up at ports, the spot circulation is abundant, coupled with the poor performance of upstream costs and the cold market sentiment, ethylene glycol has continuously hit new lows this year during the session. However, in the late session, due to the news of some new planned out - of - plan maintenance, the supply has become slightly loose, and some short - sellers have shifted their positions, resulting in a certain degree of stop - falling rebound in the price. In the short term, as the price has dropped to a low level, there is new supply reduction on the supply side, and the market sentiment can be moderately restored. In addition, as the delivery period approaches, the futures market will gradually limit positions. It is expected that ethylene glycol will be in a low - level volatile state in the short term, and pay attention to the changes of other plants in the future [16][17] - **Outlook**: The long - term inventory build - up pressure is large, and the price will maintain a wide - range volatile operation in the low - level range. Operate the EG reverse spread position in the range of [-75, -95] [19] Polyester Staple Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the cost of ethylene glycol, and the processing fee is under pressure [21] - **Main Logic**: The adjustment of upstream polyester raw material prices has led to a decline in the price of polyester staple fiber following the cost. The variables in the supply - demand pattern of polyester staple fiber itself are limited. The current price is relatively low, and there is still bottom support on the cost side in the short term. It is expected that under the game of multiple factors, the price of polyester staple fiber may be relatively resistant to decline in the near future [21][22] - **Outlook**: The price of polyester staple fiber will fluctuate following the upstream, the processing fee is expected to be compressed, and you can try to go long on TA and short on PF with a light position [22] Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: Yisheng lowers the basis, and the trading volume increases significantly [23] - **Main Logic**: The weak adjustment of upstream raw material prices has led to insufficient cost support for polyester bottle chips. Coupled with Yisheng's reduction of the basis during the session, the trading volume of the polyester bottle chip market has increased significantly during the day. It is expected that in the short term, the price will fluctuate following the upstream cost, and there is no obvious directional guidance [23] - **Outlook**: The absolute value will follow the fluctuations of raw materials, and the support below the processing fee will generally increase [24] Methanol - **View**: The expected high coastal unloading volume, and the short - term support of the inland supply - demand situation lead to a volatile and consolidating methanol market [26] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, methanol was generally weak. The mainstream intended price of methanol in northern Inner Mongolia was in the range of 1,960 - 2,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's average price. The inland market showed regional adjustments. In the North China region, the upstream supply was abundant, and there was still a demand for shipment, so enterprises actively reduced prices to promote sales. The downstream procurement in East China was relatively firm. On December 3, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.3494 million tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons (-1.03%) compared with the previous data. After the decline of the port spot price, the flow of goods from Jiangsu to southern Shandong has gradually increased, and the near - term basis along the coast has strengthened slightly. In the short term, the near - term market is still restricted by factors such as high inventory, concentrated import arrivals, and the expected shutdown of Ningbo MTO [26] - **Outlook**: Viewed as volatile and consolidating in the short term [26][27] Urea - **View**: The new order transactions have improved, and the market fluctuates and consolidates [27] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the daily output of urea on the supply side remained at around 200,000 tons, at a relatively high level. On the demand side, there is support from the progress of off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export containerization. After the decline of the spot price, the new order transactions have improved, but at this time, the cost support of coal is insufficient, and the market is in a stalemate [27] - **Outlook**: The daily output on the fundamental supply side is still high, and the demand is moderately weak. Currently, the main factors to consider are the resistance of the现货 market to high prices and the lack of strong fundamental support in the market, which suppress the upward movement of the market. If there is no effective positive support in the near future, the price may still decline slightly after the stalemate. Therefore, it is believed that urea will fluctuate and consolidate in a narrow range. Pay attention to the inventory reduction of enterprises, the progress of off - season storage, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants [27] LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The decline of oil prices leads to a weak and volatile LLDPE market [31] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the LLDPE futures contract was weak and volatile. First, oil prices declined within the range, the supply pressure continued to show, and the volatile pattern continued under the unclear geopolitical direction. Bloomberg survey data shows that OPEC's production decreased slightly by 10,000 barrels per day in November. After the significant slowdown of the net quota growth in the fourth quarter, the production trend is not obvious, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Russian oil prices are weakening, and floating storage is rising, resulting in a marginal decrease in effective supply. The long - short game continues, and the market is viewed as volatile. The weak coal price still drags down LLDPE. Second, the fundamental support of LLDPE itself is still limited. The upstream and middle - stream enterprises still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will still suppress the upward space of the price. In the short term, the profit of coal - based production has been repaired, the support of maintenance is limited, and the production pressure is still large under the increasing production capacity. Third, the short - term trading volume of downstream enterprises is cautiously expected, and the sustainability of the restocking demand driven by the low absolute price is limited. Currently, the overall demand for LLDPE is gradually entering the off - season, and the purchasing mentality is still cautious [31] - **Outlook**: Weak and volatile in the short term [31] PP - **View**: The short - term support of maintenance is still limited, and PP declines in a volatile manner [32] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the PP futures contract declined in a volatile manner. First, oil prices declined within the range, the supply pressure continued to show, and the volatile pattern continued under the unclear geopolitical direction. Bloomberg survey data shows that OPEC's production decreased slightly by 10,000 barrels per day in November. After the significant slowdown of the net quota growth in the fourth quarter, the production trend is not obvious, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Russian oil prices are weakening, and floating storage is rising, resulting in a marginal decrease in effective supply. The long - short game continues, and the market is viewed as volatile. Second, the weak coal price offsets the strength of propane, and the PDH profit is still under pressure in the short term. The valuation support of the gas - based production has increased, but the profit of coal - based refineries has been repaired under the weak coal price, and the overall increase in maintenance is still limited. Third, it is the off - season for PP downstream, and the purchasing mentality is cautious. The supply - demand pattern of PP is still under pressure [32] - **Outlook**: Weak and volatile in the short term, and the focus is still on maintenance [32][34] PL (Propylene) - **View**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, and PL fluctuates [32] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the PL futures contract fluctuated. On the spot side, the inventory of propylene enterprises was controllable, and the quotations remained

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Considering the strong fundamentals, it is expected that tin prices will maintain a strong trend within the year. Hold existing long - positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to macro - end changes and supply - side fluctuations [1]. Zinc Industry - With the improvement of interest - rate cut expectations and the opening of export space, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short term, the downward space for prices is limited, and domestic zinc prices may be stronger than LME zinc prices. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and refined zinc inventory changes [4]. Copper Industry - In the short term, the imbalance in global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, with increased price volatility. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom price center [6]. Aluminum Industry - Alumina prices are expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate. The market's ability to rebound depends on the actual scale of enterprise production cuts and inventory changes. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, but beware of pull - back risks after reaching high levels [8]. Industrial Silicon Industry - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels. If prices fall to the range of 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips. Hold existing long - positions if available [9]. Polysilicon Industry - Polysilicon futures may continue to fluctuate at high levels, but the probability of a decline to converge with spot prices is higher. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for the time being [10]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The casting aluminum alloy market is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation in the short term. Pay attention to the improvement progress of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [11][12]. Nickel Industry - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Pay attention to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [13]. Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless steel market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term. Pay attention to steel mills' implementation of production cuts and raw material price changes [14]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The lithium carbonate market is expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term. Pay attention to the resumption of production by large enterprises and the sustainability of off - season demand [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry Spot Prices and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 314,000 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous value; SMM 1 tin premium remains unchanged at 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Yangtze 1 tin price is 314,500 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous value; LME 0 - 3 premium remains unchanged at 70 dollars/ton [1]. Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit/Loss - Import loss is 15,329.05 yuan/ton, with a 7.76% increase from the previous value; the Shanghai - LME ratio is 7.91 [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 350 yuan/ton, up 36.36% from the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In October, tin ore imports were 11,632 tons, up 33.49% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, up 53.09% month - on - month [1]. - Refined tin exports in October were 1,480 tons, down 15.33% month - on - month; Indonesian refined tin exports in October were 2,600 tons, down 45.83% month - on - month [1]. - SMM refined tin average operating rate in October was 66.81%, up 53.23% month - on - month; SMM solder enterprise operating rate in November was 73.80%, up 0.96% from the previous value [1]. Inventory Changes - SHEF weekly inventory is 6,865 tons, up 1.96% from the previous value; social inventory is 8,012 tons, up 2.39% from the previous value [1]. Zinc Industry Spot Prices and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remains unchanged at 23,130 yuan/ton; the premium is 70 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [4]. Price Ratio and Profit/Loss - Import loss is 4,330 yuan/ton, with a 549.10 - yuan increase from the previous value; the Shanghai - LME ratio is 7.45 [4]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 15 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - Refined zinc production in November was 59.52 tons, down 3.56% month - on - month; refined zinc imports in October were 1.88 tons, down 16.94% month - on - month [4]. - Refined zinc exports in October were 0.85 tons, up 243.79% month - on - month; galvanizing operating rate is 58.20%, up 1.66% week - on - week [4]. Inventory Changes - China's seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots is 13.60 tons, down 5.75% week - on - week; LME inventory is 5.8 tons, up 4.29% week - on - week [4]. Copper Industry Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 92,300 yuan/ton, up 0.78% from the previous value; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 130 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [6]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 20 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [6]. Fundamental Data - Electrolytic copper production in November was 110.31 tons, up 1.05% month - on - month; electrolytic copper imports in October were 28.21 tons, down 15.61% month - on - month [6]. Inventory Changes - Domestic social inventory is 16.03 tons, up 0.82% week - on - week; bonded - area inventory is 7.75 tons, down 12.82% week - on - week [6]. Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,920 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the previous value; SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 90 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous value [8]. Price Ratio and Profit/Loss - Electrolytic aluminum import loss is 1,856 yuan/ton, with a 103 - yuan increase from the previous value; the Shanghai - LME ratio is 7.64 [8]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts AL 2512 - 2601 is - 25 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous value [8]. Fundamental Data - Alumina production in November was 743.94 tons, down 4.44% month - on - month; domestic electrolytic aluminum production in November was 363.66 tons, down 2.82% month - on - month [8]. Inventory Changes - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 59.50 tons, down 0.17% week - on - week; LME inventory is 52.6 tons, down 0.47% day - on - day [8]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon is 8,300 yuan/ton, down 1.59% from the previous value; the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, down 1.02% from the previous value [9]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 8,675 yuan/ton, down 5,696.77% from the previous value [9]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production is 40.17 tons, down 11.17% month - on - month; Xinjiang industrial silicon production is 23.76 tons, up 0.83% month - on - month [9]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang inventory is 12.38 tons, up 2.82% from the previous value; social inventory is 55.80 tons, up 1.45% week - on - week [9]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remains unchanged at 52,300 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type granular silicon remains unchanged at 50,000 yuan/kg [10]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spread - The main contract price is 54,545 yuan/ton, down 1.74% from the previous value; the spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract is 2,655 yuan/ton, down 16.51% from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Polysilicon production is 2.58 tons, up 7.50% week - on - week; polysilicon production in the month is 11.46 tons, down 14.48% month - on - month [10]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory is 29.10 tons, up 3.56% from the previous value; silicon wafer inventory is 21.30 tons, up 9.23% from the previous value [10]. Aluminum Alloy Industry Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,600 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous value; the scrap - to - new price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum is 1,761 yuan/ton, down 2.92% from the previous value [11]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2601 - 2602 is - 45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [11]. Fundamental Data - Recycled aluminum alloy ingot production in November was 68.20 tons, up 5.74% month - on - month; primary aluminum alloy ingot production in November was 30.27 tons, up 5.84% month - on - month [11]. Inventory Changes - Recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory is 5.53 tons, down 0.54% from the previous value; the daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Foshan is 35,326 tons, down 0.48% from the previous value [11]. Nickel Industry Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,200 yuan/ton, up 0.12% from the previous value; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 4,950 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from the previous value [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2601 - 2602 is - 170 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous value [13]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production is 33,345 tons, down 9.38% month - on - month; refined nickel imports are 9,741 tons, down 65.66% month - on - month [13]. Inventory Changes - SHFE inventory is 42,508 tons, up 4.23% week - on - week; social inventory is 26,848 tons, up 2.71% week - on - week [13]. Stainless Steel Industry Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,800 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from the previous value; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous value [14]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2601 - 2602 is - 115 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous value [14]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 enterprises) is 178.70 tons, down 0.72% month - on - month; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (Qinglong) is 42.35 tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [14]. Inventory Changes - 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) is 49.20 tons, down 2.06% week - on - week; 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) is 29.82 tons, down 1.44% week - on - week [14]. Lithium Carbonate Industry Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 92,750 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the previous value; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 90,350 yuan/ton, down 0.50% from the previous value [17]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 80 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous value [17]. Fundamental Data - Lithium carbonate production in November was 23,500 tons, up 3.35% month - on - month; lithium carbonate demand in November was 133,451 tons, up 5.11% month - on - month [17]. Inventory Changes - Lithium carbonate total inventory in November was 64,560 tons, down 23.36% month - on - month; lithium carbonate downstream inventory in November was 42,030 tons, down 21.13% month - on - month [17].

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | 12 | 淡季供给过剩主导市场走势，油价上方承压。地缘：俄乌地缘仍有扰动， 月 8 日泽连斯基与英国、德国、法国首脑进行会晤；核心驱动：淡季供 | | 原油 | | | | | 谨慎看空 | 给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原 | | ★ | | 油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关 | | | | 注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。策略：空单继续 | | | | 持有。 | | | | 需求端韧性较强，液化气震荡调整。成本端原油，震荡调整，大趋势仍向 | | LPG | | 下；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70% | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 左右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。 | | | | 策略：走势强于沥青和燃料油，锚定成本端油价，大趋势仍向下，反弹偏 | | | 空。 | | | L | | 基差持续偏弱，成本支撑走弱。国 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand in the polyolefin market continues to be weak, and the market is oscillating weakly. For PE, the supply pressure remains due to the expected increase in the start - up rate and the approaching of the demand off - season, leading to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand. For PP, the weak supply - demand situation persists in the short term, with inventory accumulating and the demand side lacking follow - up [1][2][3]. - The recommended strategy is to remain on the sidelines for single - side trading, with the market expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. For inter - period trading, conduct a reverse spread on the L01 - 05 contract when the price is high. For inter - variety trading, narrow the L - P price spread when it is high [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为6643元/吨（-31），PP主力合约收盘价为6275元/吨（-12）；LL华北现货为6620元/吨（-40），LL华东现货为6750元/吨（-60），PP华东现货为6310元/吨（-40）；LL华北基差为 - 23元/吨（-9），LL华东基差为107元/吨（-29），PP华东基差为35元/吨（-28） [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为84.1%（-0.5%），PP开工率为77.6%（-0.5%）；PE油制生产利润为202.2元/吨（-107.2），PP油制生产利润为 - 497.8元/吨（-107.2），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 568.5元/吨（+0.0） [1] 3.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference No specific data summary provided for this section in the given content. 3.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为59.3元/吨（-70.0），PP进口利润为 - 273.0元/吨（+0.0），PP出口利润为 - 22.4美元/吨（+0.0） [1] 3.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为48.1%（-0.9%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.2%（-0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.6%（+0.0%） [1] 3.6 Polyolefin Inventory - For PE, the social inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and the absolute inventory level was relatively high compared to the same period. The LLDPE social inventory also increased further during the week. For PP, the inventory continued to accumulate [2][3]