Group 1: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The substantial support policies such as "anti - involution" in the polysilicon market have not been implemented in time, and the new energy - consumption national standard has limited impact on short - term supply and demand. The supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The inventory of downstream component links is high, and prices are loosening. Future attention should be paid to national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry procurement, as well as the actual start - up rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon materials remained stable on September 22 compared with September 19, while the N - type material basis (average price) increased by 3420.00% [1]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 3.24% from September 19 to September 22, and the spread between different months showed various changes [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64%, while monthly production increased by 23.31%. Monthly polysilicon import decreased by 9.63%, and net export increased by 94.25%. Weekly and monthly silicon wafer production increased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon increases, and the supply - demand balance gradually becomes loose. The expected batch production reduction of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - dry season is at the end of October, and the supply surplus is more obvious in October and narrows in November. The cost increase during the flat - dry season in the southwest boosts market sentiment. In the short term, industrial silicon has insufficient upward driving force, and the price may turn to oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon increased on September 22 compared with September 19, and the basis also showed significant changes [2]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of industrial silicon futures contracts showed various changes [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly national and regional industrial silicon production increased, and the national and regional start - up rates also increased. The production of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. Industrial silicon exports increased [2]. - **Inventory Change**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. Social inventory and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly, and contract inventory decreased slightly [2]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures market is weak. Although the manufacturer's inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The weekly production remains high, and there is still an over - supply situation compared with the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no significant increase in downstream capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. Attention can be paid to the implementation of policies and the load - regulation situation of alkali plants. It is advisable to short on rebounds [4]. - **Glass**: The glass futures market is weak. The spot market trading has become dull, and the inventory of some middle - stream areas remains high without obvious reduction. In the long - term, as the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Attention can be paid to the implementation of regional policies and the inventory - replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. In the short term, sentiment - driven factors may drive the spot market to improve, and the sustainability needs to be tracked [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in different regions remained stable, and the prices of glass futures contracts decreased slightly [4]. - **Soda - Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable, and the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased [4]. - **Supply**: The soda ash start - up rate and weekly production decreased, the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda - ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased, while the soda - ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased. The glass factory's soda - ash inventory days remained unchanged [4]. - **Real - estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real - estate all showed different degrees of change [4]. Group 4: Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - On the supply side, the expected increase in future supply weakens the raw - material price and cost support, but the typhoon weather has raised concerns about short - term supply release. The pre - festival inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, and the inventory - reduction rhythm of natural rubber spot inventory has slowed down. On the demand side, although some enterprises still face shortages, the overall shipment performance is less than expected, and some enterprises' inventory may increase. Affected by the typhoon weather, the short - term rubber price will fluctuate strongly, with the 01 contract price ranging from 15000 - 16500 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the raw - material output during the peak season in the main production areas and the impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply. If the raw - material supply is smooth, the price may decline further; otherwise, it will continue to operate within the range [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of some rubber varieties remained stable, while the basis and non - standard price difference changed [5]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of rubber futures contracts showed various changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and China in July showed different trends. The start - up rate of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased slightly. The domestic tire production in August increased, while the tire export decreased. The import of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory and the上期所 factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in the bonded and general - trade warehouses in Qingdao changed [5]. Group 5: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The log futures market oscillated. The spot price of the main standard delivery products remained unchanged, and the inventory decreased significantly. The demand (outbound volume) decreased, while the supply (expected arrival of New Zealand logs) increased. As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, attention should be paid to whether the outbound volume improves significantly after entering the seasonal peak season. The current daily outbound volume is about 60,000 cubic meters, but it has not exceeded 70,000 cubic meters. The price below 800 yuan/cubic meter has high "receiving value". In the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: The log futures price oscillated, and the spot price of main standard delivery products remained unchanged [7]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate and import theoretical cost changed slightly [7]. - **Port Shipment and Departure Ship Number**: The port shipment volume and departure ship number from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased [7]. - **Main Port Inventory and Daily Outbound Volume**: The national coniferous log inventory decreased, and the daily outbound volume decreased [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Low-level oscillation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Bearish continuation [4] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [4] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil supply is in excess, and prices are under downward pressure. LPG is affected by high warehouse receipts and weak cost, with prices trending downwards. L and PP have insufficient upward drivers due to balanced supply and demand. PVC has cost support but weak fundamentals. PX and PTA are affected by supply - demand expectations and macro factors, showing a weakening trend. Ethylene glycol has supply pressure and weak demand. Methanol's downward space may be limited. Urea has a supply - demand imbalance and inventory accumulation. Natural gas prices are affected by inventory and seasonality. Asphalt is pressured by cost and supply - demand. Glass and soda ash are affected by supply and demand in the real estate and downstream industries [1][2][4] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 0.19%, Brent down 0.11%, and SC down 1.43% [5] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks decline, supply is in excess, and the US crude oil inventory has unexpectedly decreased, providing short - term support. In the long - term, supply may push prices down to around $60 [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the $60 support level and the [470 - 480] range for SC [8] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 20, the PG main contract closed at 4,293 yuan/ton, down 1.72% [11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of crude oil is weak, demand is weak, warehouse receipts are at a high level, supply is increasing, and inventory is rising [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the [4250 - 4350] range [13] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,130 yuan/ton, with a decline [17] - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices stop falling and rebound, the basis continues to repair. Supply is abundant, and demand is strengthening, but there is insufficient upward drive [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a pullback to try long positions. Pay attention to the [7050 - 7200] range [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,873 yuan/ton, with a decline [22] - **Basic Logic**: The market is bearish, the basis is strengthening, cost pressure is high, supply pressure may ease, and demand is slowly increasing [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Do not chase short positions for absolute prices. Pay attention to the [6800 - 6950] range [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,938 yuan/ton, with a decline [27] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, warehouse receipts decline, supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Exports are strong [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try long positions on pullbacks. Pay attention to the [4850 - 5000] range [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, with a decline [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, inventory is high, and macro factors are negative [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and sell call options. Pay attention to the [6500 - 6580] range [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 19, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,555 yuan/ton, with a decline [34] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure may ease, the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is underperforming, demand is weak, and cost support exists [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the [4525 - 4575] range [36] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 19, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,352 yuan/ton, with a decline [39] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand is weak, and inventory is low, providing some support [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the [4200 - 4240] range [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 19, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,299 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 2,361 yuan/ton [42] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is still large, but demand is improving, and cost support is stabilizing [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract on pullbacks. Pay attention to the [2331 - 2361] range [45] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 19, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,661 yuan/ton [47] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and cost support is expected to weaken [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and sell call options [2] Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: US natural gas inventory has increased more than expected, and prices are weakening. Cooling weather provides some support [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously hold short positions [4] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: Cost is weak, supply pressure is increasing, and supply - demand is loose [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4] Glass - **Basic Logic**: Supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and inventory is expected to increase [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term wait - and - see, long - term short on rebounds [4] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: Demand is improving, supply is expected to be loose, and pay attention to downstream restocking [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds in the long - term [4]

Pricing - The price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold-rolled steel is stable at 13,100 yuan/ton, while Foshan Hongwang is at 13,200 yuan/ton, both showing no daily change [1] - The basis has decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 360 yuan/ton [1] Raw Materials - Nickel ore prices remain strong, with a rise in transaction volume; however, the quality of nickel ore from Indonesia is declining [1] - Nickel pig iron prices are stable around 950 yuan/nickel (including tax), but ongoing losses in stainless steel production are expected to suppress demand for nickel pig iron [1] - Chrome ore prices are rising due to strong cost support and reduced supply in August [1] Supply - In August, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel plants was 3.2795 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 68,700 tons (2.14%) but a year-on-year decrease of 2.37% [1] - The forecast for September crude steel output is 3.4021 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.74% and a year-on-year increase of 3.57% [1] Inventory - Social inventory is decreasing slowly, with a total of 472,000 tons of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan, a week-on-week decrease of 6,000 tons [2] - As of September 22, stainless steel futures inventory is at 89,377 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6,972 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with downstream sectors beginning to restock ahead of the holiday, but overall demand remains stable [3] - Nickel ore prices are supported by strong demand, while the supply from Indonesia is relatively ample [3] - The forecast for crude steel production in September indicates continued increases, primarily in the 300 series, which may exert pressure on supply [3] - Despite a decrease in social inventory, the absolute volume remains high, indicating ongoing challenges in demand fulfillment [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on the current warm macro - atmosphere, relatively low - valued steel prices, high iron - water production, and the short - term difficulty in forming obvious negative feedback pressure, steel prices are expected to fluctuate but have obvious support and a small rebound space [3]. - The supply of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has a phased increase, and the arrival volume is relatively lagging and shows a short - term decline. The demand for iron ore is supported by high - level iron - water production. Iron ore is expected to be firm in the short term, but the room for further upward movement is relatively limited [4]. - The supply of coking coal and coke has recovered, and there is no obvious inventory pressure. With the high - level iron - water production and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment expectation, as well as the approaching Fed rate - cut window, coking coal and coke are expected to have obvious low - level support and phased rebound momentum [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the inventory accumulation of the five major steel products slowed down slightly. The production and demand of rebar decreased, and the increase in total inventory narrowed, but the social inventory still increased significantly, indicating limited improvement in terminal demand and cautious market transactions. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils increased, and the inventory decreased, with an improved fundamental situation. During the domestic policy vacuum period, steel prices showed a low - level weak adjustment [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: The national weekly rebar production was 211.93 million tons (down 3.09% month - on - month and up 12.78% year - on - year), and the hot - rolled coil production was 325.14 million tons (up 3.47% month - on - month and up 7.60% year - on - year). Rebar production decreased, while hot - rolled coil production increased [16][18]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit was - 14 yuan/ton (down 133% week - on - week and down 141 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 46 yuan/ton (up 35.29% week - on - week and up 173 yuan/ton year - on - year) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 198.07 million tons (down 1.98% month - on - month and down 10.94% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 326.16 million tons (up 6.81% month - on - month and up 3.23% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 653.86 million tons (up 2.17% month - on - month and up 32.46% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 373.32 million tons (down 0.27% month - on - month and down 13.43% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transaction volume of commercial housing and land continued to shrink month - on - month. In August 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 105.59 (up 1.22% month - on - month and up 14.85% year - on - year). The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2850.8 million tons (up 25.75% month - on - month and down 1.78% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2362.3 million tons (down 3.50% month - on - month and up 9.60% year - on - year) [59]. - **Demand**: The daily iron - water production was 240.55 million tons (up 11.71 million tons month - on - month and up 17.17 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 317.78 million tons (down 0.27% month - on - month and up 4.97% year - on - year) [64]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 13849.47 million tons (up 0.17% month - on - month and down 9.55% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8993.05 million tons (up 0.59% month - on - month and down 1.07% year - on - year) [70]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The coking coal mine operating rate was 82.71% (up 9.14% month - on - month and down 8% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 18.44 million tons (down 1.23% month - on - month and up 75.35% year - on - year) [76]. - **Demand**: The daily iron - water production was 240.55 million tons (up 11.71 million tons month - on - month and up 17.17 million tons year - on - year) [85]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 751.75 million tons (down 3.70% month - on - month and up 7.58% year - on - year), and the coke inventory of independent coking plants was 43.91 million tons (up 7.86% month - on - month and up 0.99% year - on - year) [91][97]. - **Spot Price**: Coke started the second round of price cuts, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises [98]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar contracted from a high level, and the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coils widened. The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal and coke continued to contract, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore contracted slightly [105][111].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market shows a complex situation. In the short - term, there is a game between weak supply - demand and cost support. The V2601 daily K - line is concerned about the support near 4900 yuan/ton. - The PVC social inventory continues to increase, with high pressure. The terminal real - estate market is weak, dragging down domestic demand. The Indian anti - dumping policy on PVC is expected to be implemented soon, and the export market is in a wait - and - see state. - Currently, both calcium carbide and ethylene processes are in continuous losses. There are no planned new maintenance devices in the short term, and the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to increase this week due to the restart of some devices. New capacity is about to be put into production, increasing the long - term supply pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of PVC (V2601) is 4938 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the trading volume is 824910 hands, up 36539 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 104363 hands, down 2087 hands [3]. - **Spot Market**: In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5010 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4786.54 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4851.25 yuan/ton, up 19.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 dollars/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 dollars/ton (unchanged) [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central, northern, and northwestern regions has increased. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged at - 575 yuan/ton. The intermediate prices of VCM and EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia remain unchanged [3]. - **Industrial Situation**: The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.96%, down 2.98%. The social inventory of PVC is 53.46 tons, up 0.3 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative values of new housing construction area, real - estate construction area, and real - estate development investment have all increased [3]. - **Option Market**: The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of PVC have decreased. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options have increased slightly [3]. 3.2. Industry News - From September 13th to 19th, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.98% to 76.96%, and the downstream operating rate increased by 1.69% to 49.19%. Among them, the operating rate of pipes increased by 1.52% to 39.13%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 0.21% to 39.43% [3]. - As of September 18th, the PVC social inventory was 95.37 tons, up 2.03% from the previous week. The weekly average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased to 5230 yuan/ton, and the weekly average cost of ethylene - based PVC increased to 5631 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 155 yuan/ton to 657 yuan/ton, and the weekly profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 652 yuan/ton [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - fiber: In the short - term, it is a volatile market, and in the medium - term, it is weak. In September, the supply and demand are both strong. With low prices, the replenishment support is strong, but the cost support is insufficient, showing a unilateral volatile and weak trend. The recommended strategy is to hold the inter - period positive spread [7]. - Bottle chips: The cost support is insufficient, showing a volatile and weak trend. In September, the supply increases while the demand decreases. The low - price procurement support is strong, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future. The recommended strategy is to go long on TA and short on PR in the far - month contract [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Short - fiber (PF) 1.1 Valuation and Profit - The current spot premium is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, which is relatively high; the disk processing fee is 970 yuan/ton, and the processing fee and inter - month spread valuations are basically reasonable, while the basis is high [7]. 1.2 Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory's average operating rate has slightly increased to 95.4%, and the spinning direct - spun polyester staple fiber operating rate is 98%. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93% - 95% in the future [7]. - Demand: In the second half of the week, when the price dropped to a low level, downstream procurement increased. The short - fiber inventory decreased, with the 1.4D equity inventory at 7.8 days and the physical inventory at 18 days. In September, the downstream operating load increased month - on - month, and each link was in the trend of seasonal inventory reduction [7]. 1.3 Strategy - Unilateral: None - Inter - period: Hold the inter - period positive spread - Cross - variety: None [7] 2. Bottle chips (PR) 2.1 Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee is 450 yuan/ton, and the processing fees of the October and November disk contracts are 400 - 420 yuan/ton, all of which are over - estimated [8]. 2.2 Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory maintains production cuts, with the operating rate at around 81%. The new Fuhai plant is expected to be put into operation in late October or at the end of the month [8]. - Demand: Domestically, the beverage factory's operating rate has dropped to around 85%. The inventory of bottle - chip factories has slightly decreased to 14.5 days. The export volume is expected to maintain at around 600,000 tons in August and September [8]. 2.3 Strategy - Unilateral: None - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: Go long on TA and short on PR in the far - month contract [8] 3. Cost and Raw Materials - PTA: It is operating weakly, and the warehouse receipts are continuously flowing out [35] - MEG: The subsequent supply pressure will increase month - on - month [44] - Cost and profit: The cost has decreased, and the profit has been repaired. The polymerization cost has dropped to around 5400 yuan/ton, and the bottle - chip processing fee is oscillating at a high level [46] 4. Inventory - Polyester factories' overall PTA inventory has increased, and the domestic polyester bottle - chip factory inventory has slightly decreased to around 14.5 days. It is expected to have a slight inventory accumulation in September [50][55] 5. Device Changes - In September, about 400,000 tons of the planned 1,000,000 - ton device will resume production. Some factories are maintaining production cuts, and new devices such as Fuhai are expected to be postponed [56] 6. Demand - Beverage consumption from January to August 2025 is weaker year - on - year. However, there are still many new beverage factory production lines to be put into operation. The demand for edible oil is neutral, and the demand for sheet materials is driven by the expansion of ready - to - drink beverages in the sinking market and the take - away war [63][67][72] 7. Export - In July 2025, the export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices increased year - on - year. The main export destinations are Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe. There are anti - dumping policies and investigations in some countries [82][84][93] 8. Supply - demand Balance Sheet - In September 2025, it is in a tight balance to a slightly inventory - accumulating state, and the pressure will increase in the future. The supply assumption is that mainstream factories maintain production cuts, and new devices will be put into operation. The demand assumption is that downstream demand will increase by 5% year - on - year during the peak season, and the export volume will maintain at around 600,000 tons [94][96]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cast aluminum alloy is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coexistence of the off - peak season during the supposed peak period and cost support is expected to lead to an oscillatory trend in the market. The price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots showed a weak and oscillatory performance last week. Macroeconomic factors, cost, and inventory conditions will jointly affect the price trend of ADC12, with the price expected to oscillate. One - sided trading can consider lightly - weighted long positions on dips, and the existing arbitrage positions can be held with appropriate stop - profit settings [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. 1. Waste Aluminum: Arrival Marginally Recovers but Remains Low, Price Oscillates at High Levels - Last week (09/15 - 09/19), the price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots oscillated weakly. The closing price of AD2511 decreased by 1.6% week - on - week to 20,325 yuan/ton, and the sales price of Baotai Group's ADC12 dropped by 200 yuan/ton to 20,400 yuan/ton. The price of waste aluminum in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the FOB price of Malaysian crushed primary aluminum increased by 33 US dollars to 2,233 US dollars/ton. The production cost of Fubao's ADC12 decreased by 113.3 yuan/ton to 20,226 yuan/ton, and the profit widened by 13.2 yuan/ton to 73.8 yuan/ton [12][13] - This week, waste aluminum prices remained high but declined week - on - week, mainly driven by the weakening of primary aluminum prices. The supply shortage of waste aluminum persists, especially for crushed primary aluminum. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the peak - season expectations are difficult to fulfill, and the continuous increase in the operating rate may not be sustainable. The supply - demand game of waste aluminum will remain intense, and the price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [15] 3.2. 2. Recent Industry News Review - In July 2025, the global primary aluminum supply was short of 11.99 tons, and from January to July 2025, the supply shortage was 98.53 tons [18] - In August, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry was 53.3%, showing an improvement from the off - season to the peak season. Primary alloys expanded steadily, while recycled alloys were still below the boom - bust line [19] - In July 2025, China's waste aluminum imports increased by 18.7% year - on - year, with Thailand and Japan being the major suppliers [19] - Four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to regulate investment promotion behaviors, including rectifying illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies [19][20] - The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [20] 3.3. 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1. 3.1 Waste Aluminum: Arrival Marginally Recovers, Price Remains High - This week, waste aluminum prices remained high but declined week - on - week, mainly due to the weakening of primary aluminum prices. The supply shortage of waste aluminum persists, especially for crushed primary aluminum. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the peak - season expectations are difficult to fulfill, and the continuous increase in the operating rate may not be sustainable. The supply - demand game of waste aluminum will remain intense, and the price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [15] 3.3.2. 3.2 ADC12: Price is Strong, Social Inventory is High - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures oscillated weakly this week, with a 1.6% decline. The sales price of Baotai's ADC12 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 20,400 yuan/ton. The ADC12 - A00 spread marginally narrowed. After entering the traditional peak season, the market performance was below expectations, and the social inventory of ADC12 continued to rise. The production of standard warehouse receipts for cast aluminum alloy futures will start on September 22nd. The pre - holiday inventory - building demand is expected to provide short - term support for the spot price, and the trading activity of ADC12 in the trading segment increased this week due to the strengthening of the basis. The social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots continued to rise to 7.14 tons, and the factory - level inventory increased by 0.03 tons to 6.08 tons [16] 3.3.3. 3.3 Downstream: Peak - Season Expectations are Difficult to Fulfill - The high - frequency data of new - energy vehicles showed signs of weakening, and the peak - season expectations for the downstream industry are difficult to fulfill. The production and sales data of the automotive and motorcycle industries are presented in the report, reflecting the current situation of the downstream demand [2][60][66]

Core Viewpoint - Propylene futures are experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract showing a decline of 0.67% to 6400.0 yuan as of the latest report [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - In the week of September 12-18, 2025, China's propylene production reached 1.2029 million tons, an increase of 21,800 tons from the previous week, representing a growth of 1.85% [2] - The operating rates of downstream propylene factories showed mixed results, with the highest increase in the utilization rate of propylene acid products, while the largest decline was seen in epoxy propane utilization rates due to several facilities undergoing maintenance [2] - Overall, the supply and demand for propylene are relatively balanced, with maintenance activities tightening the spot market, leading to a stable futures market [2] Group 2: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - As of September 18, propylene prices in East China were quoted at 6450 yuan/ton, while prices in Shandong were at 6580 yuan/ton [3] - The overall operating rate of propylene production has decreased, with more PDH facilities shutting down, leading to reduced spot availability in Shandong [3] - The rising prices of raw material propane are providing cost support, but terminal demand remains stable, resulting in thin production profits and limited acceptance of high-priced sources by manufacturers [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; For inter - period, after the restart of the main PDH, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 short - spread strategy when the spread is high; For inter - variety, none [3] Core View - On the supply side, the 650,000 - ton naphtha cracking new device of Yulong Petrochemical is planned to be put into production, and the PDH of Hebei Haiwei restarts. The propylene start - up rate increases month - on - month, and the supply is expected to recover. On the demand side, the spread between PP powder and propylene continues to shrink, and the profit is difficult to repair. Some downstream procurement enthusiasm weakens due to cost pressure, but the pre - holiday replenishment demand may drive short - term demand support. On the cost side, the geopolitical situation is still volatile, the oil price is under pressure, the price of external propane is adjusted, and the cost support is weakened [2] Summary by Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - The figures involved are the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the East China market price of propylene, and the Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] II. Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The figures involved are the difference between China CFR of propylene and Japan CFR of naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, propylene PDH production gross profit, propylene PDH capacity utilization rate, propylene MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][23][30] III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The figures involved are the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, the difference between Japan CFR and China CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35] IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - The figures involved are PP powder production profit, PP powder start - up rate, propylene oxide production profit, propylene oxide start - up rate, n - butanol production profit, n - butanol capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit, octanol capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit, acrylic acid capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit, acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate, phenol - acetone production profit, and phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate [41][43][54] V. Propylene Inventory - The figures involved are propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical futures market as a whole continues to consolidate in a volatile pattern. The supply pressure in the crude oil market persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks. The prices of various energy and chemical products show different trends, with some being volatile, some weakly volatile, and some expected to experience short - term fluctuations [2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Logic of Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks are the focus. The freight rate of VLCC from the Middle East to Asia has reached a two - and - a - half - year high. The持仓 of Brent crude oil has reached a record high, indicating a large divergence between long and short positions. The disruption of Ukraine to Russia's oil product exports remains unresolved [2][10]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price fluctuates below 3500 yuan/ton. Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalates. The supply tension problem has been significantly alleviated, and the pricing power of asphalt futures prices is expected to return to Shandong. The hidden inventory in South China is a concern [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price shows a weak and volatile trend. Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalates. The export of Russian fuel oil reaches a record high, and the demand expectation deteriorates [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It fluctuates following crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline [13]. - **PX**: The cost support is insufficient, and the processing fee is under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand from downstream PTA is expected to weaken [14]. - **PTA**: New device commissioning is postponed, and maintenance is implemented, but the market boost effect is limited. The processing fee is expected to be repaired, and attention should be paid to the support around 4600 yuan/ton [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price falls intraday due to the realization of macro - benefits and the decline in commodity sentiment. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the change in crude oil prices and the subsequent import volume of pure benzene [14][15][16]. - **Styrene**: The price resumes falling due to the decline in commodity sentiment. The inventory pressure is large in September - October, and the cost - end pure benzene inventory accumulation pressure may drag down the valuation. There may be a small rebound in the short term, but the amplitude is limited by inventory [16][17]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The market sentiment is under pressure due to the expectation of weakening supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to the support around 4200 yuan/ton [17][18][19]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The inventory is slightly reduced, and the processing fee is firm. The supply and demand pattern is relatively healthy, and the absolute value follows the raw material fluctuations and fluctuates in the short term [20][21][22]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The driving force is limited, and it follows passively. The price follows the upstream fluctuations, and the absolute value follows the raw material fluctuations and fluctuates [22][24]. - **Methanol**: The port trading volume increases slightly, and the futures price fluctuates and declines. The port inventory pressure is large, and the inland inventory pressure is limited. There may be low - buying opportunities from September to October [25]. - **Urea**: Under the condition of loose supply and demand, the downstream conducts price negotiations, and the futures price fluctuates and consolidates in the short term [25]. - **LLDPE (Plastic)**: The maintenance rate declines, and there is still restocking demand before the festival. The price fluctuates. The macro - support weakens, the oil price fluctuates weakly, and the demand may have certain support [28]. - **PP**: The spot price is at a low level, and there is still restocking demand before the festival. The price fluctuates and declines. The supply side still has an increasing trend, and the inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches exists [29][30]. - **PL**: It fluctuates following PP, and the price fluctuates and declines in the short term [30]. - **PVC**: It operates in a volatile manner with weak reality and strong expectation. The macro - sentiment is warm, but the fundamental pressure is large, and the cost moves up slightly [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price decline space is limited, and the futures price fluctuates. The fundamental pressure gradually appears, but the restocking before the National Day may provide certain support [33]. 3.2 Monitoring of Energy and Chemical Indicators - **Inter - period Spread**: Different energy and chemical products show different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.5 yuan/ton with a change of 0.01 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is 0 yuan with a change of - 8 yuan/ton [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt quantities of various products also vary. For example, the basis of asphalt is 93 yuan/ton with a change of 18 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt is 65010 [37]. - **Inter - product Spread**: The inter - product spreads of different energy and chemical products have different values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 112 yuan/ton with a change of 34 yuan/ton [39]. 3.3 Commodity Index - On September 18, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities is 2224.80, down 0.94%; the commodity 20 index is 2489.53, down 1.04%; the industrial products index is 2246.67, down 1.06%. The energy index on September 18, 2025, has a daily decline of 1.27%, a 5 - day increase of 2.98%, a 1 - month increase of 0.64%, and a year - to - date decline of 0.86% [281][283].