Core Insights - Jiangsu province achieved a total retail sales of social consumer goods of 2.39 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [1] - Urban retail sales reached 2.14 trillion yuan, growing by 4.8%, while rural retail sales increased by 6.8% to 252.06 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends - The "Su Chao" effect is beginning to show, with significant growth in fast food sales; in May and June, the 18 counties hosting the "Su Chao" matches saw a 1.2 and 1.6 percentage point increase in accommodation and catering industry revenue compared to April [1] - The catering industry saw beverage and cold drink services grow by 21.2% and fast food services by 6.2%, contributing to a 1.9 percentage point increase in the overall catering industry growth [1] - A total of 1,073 new catering enterprises were added in the first half of the year, contributing 4.0 percentage points to the growth of the catering industry [1] Group 2: Policy Impact and Market Dynamics - The "old for new" consumption policy has effectively boosted retail sales, with related products (automobiles, home appliances, 3C digital products, and home goods) achieving retail sales of 384.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [2] - The retail sales of physical stores increased by 7.7% to 695.85 billion yuan, while online retail sales grew by 7.9%, with physical goods online retail sales rising by 6.1% [2] - Online retail sales accounted for 21.9% of total social consumer goods retail sales, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the first quarter [2]

Group 1 - Jiangsu province achieved a total retail sales of consumer goods of 23,949.0 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, indicating overall market stability and joint development of urban and rural markets [1] - Urban retail sales reached 21,428.4 billion yuan, growing by 4.8%, while rural retail sales amounted to 2,520.6 billion yuan, increasing by 6.8% [1] - The "Su Chao" effect is beginning to show, with significant growth in fast food sales; in May and June, the combined growth rate of accommodation and catering industries in 18 counties (cities, districts) hosting the "Su Chao" matches accelerated by 1.2 and 1.6 percentage points compared to April [1] Group 2 - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has effectively boosted sales of green and smart products, with related goods (automobiles, home appliances, 3C digital products, home goods) achieving retail sales of 3,847.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [2] - Retail sales from physical stores in Jiangsu reached 6,958.5 billion yuan, growing by 7.7%, while online retail sales increased by 7.9%, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 6.1% [2] - The proportion of physical goods online retail sales in total retail sales of consumer goods reached 21.9%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose, with the T2509 contract rising 0.2%, and the short - term market interest rates generally declined. The yields of key - term treasury bonds at home and abroad changed, and the price fluctuations of short - term treasury bond futures will continue to increase due to multiple factors [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Volumes**: The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose, such as the T2509 contract rising 0.2%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied, with some open interest decreasing [2]. - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - The short - term market interest rates generally declined. For example, the SHIBOR 7 - day rate decreased by 2.4bp, the DR007 rate decreased by 6.73bp, and the GC007 rate decreased by 2.9bp [2]. Spot Market - **Domestic Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds at home changed differently. The 10Y treasury bond yield decreased by 2.24bp to 1.72%, and the yield spread between long - and short - term (10 - 2) treasury bonds was 30.73bp [2]. - **Overseas Treasury Bond Yields**: The 10Y US treasury bond yield increased by 2bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield decreased by 7bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield decreased by 3.4bp [2]. Macro News - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan [3]. - **Economic Meetings**: The national industrial and information authorities' symposium deployed eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including promoting industrial development and expanding domestic demand [3]. - **Other Policies**: The implementation plan of the national child - rearing subsidy system was officially announced, and the CF40 report suggested increasing counter - cyclical policies [3]. Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: Most money market interest rates declined, and most US treasury bond yields fell. Trump's remarks affected the market's expectations of the Fed's policies [3]. Comment and Strategy - The price of 10 - year treasury bond active bonds rebounded significantly, and the yield dropped to 1.715%. Due to factors such as the central bank's operations, overseas economic data, and domestic policies, the price fluctuations of short - term treasury bond futures will continue to increase [3].

相较于育儿补贴规模的多少，更重要的是政策对于扩大内需和"投资于人"的积极态 度，育儿补贴落地有望成为市场风格切换的催化剂。 2、育儿补贴央地财政如何分担？ 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 国家育儿补贴制度实施方案7月28日公布。从2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定生育的3周岁以 下婴幼儿发放补贴，至其年满3周岁。育儿补贴按年发放，现阶段国家基础标准为每孩每年3600元。 其中，对2025年1月1日之前出生、不满3周岁的婴幼儿，按应补贴月数折算计发补贴。 1、育儿补贴规模有多大？ 《育儿补贴制度实施方案》明确，"从2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定生育的3周岁以下婴幼儿 发放补贴，至其年满3周岁"。 此次育儿补贴的发放对象可以分为两类群体： 一是2025年1月1日之前出生、不满3周岁的婴幼儿，对应2022-2024年2812万人的出生人口。《方 案》明确"对2025年1月1日之前出生、不满3周岁的婴幼儿，按应补贴月数折算计发补贴"，对应的补 贴规模共计854亿元。 二是2025年1月1日之后出生的婴幼儿，对应2025年的新出生人口，预计960万人左右，按照现阶段 国家基础标准为每孩每年3600元补 ...

Group 1 - The provincial government emphasizes the importance of investment as a stabilizing factor against uncertainties, linking it to domestic demand expansion and economic stability [1] - The government aims to enhance the effectiveness of policies and financial tools to stimulate effective investment, particularly in private and real estate sectors [2] - There is a focus on attracting foreign investment and supporting local enterprises to expand production, with an emphasis on collaboration with state-owned and well-known private enterprises [2] Group 2 - The government plans to improve investment efficiency in major infrastructure projects and public service facilities, targeting areas like education, healthcare, and community amenities [2] - Continuous problem-solving and resource coordination are highlighted as essential for creating a conducive investment environment [2] - The meeting included participation from key provincial officials, indicating a unified approach to investment promotion [3]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need to strengthen the industrial economy by implementing a new round of ten key industry growth actions and enhancing consumer goods supply-demand adaptability [1] - There is a focus on promoting high-quality development of key industrial chains and ensuring the security of strategic mineral resources while optimizing global layouts [1][2] - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is prioritized to enhance core competitiveness, with initiatives for major national science and technology projects [1][2] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of digital technology in promoting the deep integration of information technology and industrialization, with plans for data element empowerment and industrial digital transformation [1][2] - Green development is a key focus, with the establishment of carbon footprint accounting standards and management of battery recycling for electric vehicles [2] - The meeting called for the cultivation of high-quality enterprises and the improvement of enterprise services, including policies to support specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises [2]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting highlighted that China's industrial economy has maintained stable operation in 2023, showcasing resilience and vitality, with continuous optimization of industrial structure and significant achievements in high-quality development [1] Group 1: Industrial Performance - In the first half of the year, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with manufacturing added value growing by 7% [2] - The added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increased by 10.2% and 9.5% respectively, while the total volume of telecommunications business grew by 9.3% and revenue from software and information technology services rose by 11.9% [2] - By the end of June, there were 4.55 million 5G base stations and 10.43 million operational computing standard racks [2] Group 2: Key Focus Areas for the Second Half - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) emphasized eight key areas for the second half of the year, including implementing strategies to expand domestic demand and promoting high-quality development of key industrial chains [2] - There will be a focus on enhancing technological innovation and the integration of industry and technology, as well as deepening the application of digital technology [2] - The MIIT plans to promote green development and improve industrial energy efficiency, while also enhancing the quality of the information and communication industry [2] Group 3: Industry Governance and Structural Adjustments - The MIIT will soon release a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, focusing on structural adjustments, supply optimization, and the elimination of outdated production capacity [3] - The ministry will initiate actions to cultivate new momentum in emerging industrial sectors, including humanoid robots and the Internet of Things [3] - Policies will be developed to support the digital transformation of industries and enhance the quality of industrial software [3] Group 4: Anti-Competition Measures - The MIIT confirmed its commitment to consolidating the results of "anti-involution" measures in the new energy vehicle sector and strengthening governance in key industries like photovoltaics [4] - The "anti-involution" policy has evolved into a coordinated policy system that benefits industries such as photovoltaics, automobiles, agriculture, and cyclical goods [5][6] - The ongoing strengthening of "anti-involution" policies is expected to become a sustained investment theme, although comprehensive implementation of related policies is still pending [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience and vitality of China's industrial economy in 2023, highlighting the continuous optimization of industrial structure and the achievement of high-quality development. Group 1: Industrial Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with manufacturing added value growing by 7% [1] - The added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increased by 10.2% and 9.5% respectively [1] - The total volume of telecommunications business grew by 9.3%, while revenue from software and information technology services rose by 11.9% [1] - By the end of June, there were 4.55 million 5G base stations and 10.43 million computing standard racks in use [1] Group 2: Key Focus Areas for the Second Half - The government will focus on eight key areas, including expanding domestic demand, promoting high-quality development of key industrial chains, and enhancing technological innovation [1] - There will be a push for deeper integration of digital technology and industrialization, as well as a commitment to green development and improving industrial energy efficiency [1] - The government aims to strengthen the cultivation system for quality enterprises and deepen reforms to enhance industry governance [1] Group 3: Specific Actions and Policies - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement a new round of ten key industry growth actions to enhance consumption and adapt supply and demand [2] - There will be a focus on promoting structural adjustments and eliminating backward production capacity in key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials [3] - Policies will be developed to support the growth of emerging industries and enhance the integration of culture and industry [3] Group 4: "Anti-Competition" Policies - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has stated its commitment to consolidating the results of "anti-competition" measures in the new energy vehicle sector and improving governance in key industries like photovoltaics [4] - Analysts suggest that the "anti-competition" policy has evolved into a comprehensive policy system that will benefit industries such as photovoltaics, automobiles, agriculture, and cyclical products [4][5]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the implementation of a new round of ten key industries to stabilize growth and enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand to boost consumption [1] - The plan includes accelerating the development and application of technologies such as artificial intelligence terminals, ultra-high-definition video, smart wearables, and drones [1] - Financial support for new industrialization will be guided by new policies, expanding the implementation of "integrated technology and finance" initiatives [1] Group 2 - The action plan aims to clear overdue enterprise accounts and establish a long-term regulatory mechanism for enterprise-related fees [1] - Policies to alleviate burdens on enterprises will be promoted to ensure effective implementation [1] - The tobacco industry will continue to maintain steady development [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, exceeding the annual growth target, but the outlook for the second half remains cautious due to pressures from tariffs, real estate, and limited fiscal capacity [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Policy Recommendations - The report emphasizes the need for stronger counter-cyclical policies to achieve the annual economic growth target, given the marginal weakening of growth momentum in Q2 compared to Q1 [3][4]. - It suggests that the government should utilize public budget funds and consider issuing an additional 2.3 trillion yuan in government bonds to support fiscal spending [4]. - The report highlights the importance of urban renewal projects as a critical area for expanding domestic demand, especially as the effectiveness of existing policies like "trade-in" diminishes over time [4][5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The report recommends lowering policy interest rates to guide market rates downwards, which is essential for restoring balance between private sector savings and investments [4][5]. - It notes that the current global environment, with many developed countries in a rate-cutting cycle, provides a favorable backdrop for such monetary easing [4]. Group 3: Currency Valuation and Exchange Rate Dynamics - The report discusses the depreciation of the RMB's real effective exchange rate by over 15% since 2022, attributing this to persistent domestic demand shortages [7][8]. - It emphasizes that the comparison of expected returns between RMB assets and foreign exchange assets is crucial for determining the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market [8]. - The report suggests that timely and sufficient counter-cyclical policies are necessary to achieve a reasonable valuation of the RMB's real effective exchange rate [8][9]. Group 4: Stablecoin Development and Internationalization of RMB - The report outlines the structural changes in the RMB exchange rate, including a shift in expectations and a changing interest rate environment, which could support the internationalization of the RMB [11]. - It discusses the potential pathways for advancing RMB stablecoin trials, emphasizing the need for onshore stablecoins due to the lack of application scenarios for offshore stablecoins [12]. - The report highlights the importance of strict regulation in the development of RMB stablecoins to avoid missing critical opportunities in the evolving financial landscape [12].