在财政政策方面，韩文秀表示，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。要保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模 和支出总量。要建立健全增收节支机制，增强地方自主财力，兜牢基层"三保"底线。要优化支出结构， 强化国家重大战略的财力保障，推动更多资金资源投资于人，统筹用好政府债券资金，更加注重惠民 生、扩内需、增后劲。要主动靠前发力，提高资金使用效率，推动尽快形成实际支出和实物工作量。 在货币政策方面，韩文秀表示，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。要灵活搭配、高效运用降准降息等多 种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同 经济增长、物价总水平预期目标相匹配。要着力畅通货币政策传导机制，做好科技金融、绿色金融、普 惠金融、养老金融、数字金融五篇大文章，加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，提 升金融服务实体经济的质效，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 对于中央经济工作会议部署的"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"，韩文秀表示，下一步，要深入实施 提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划，继续提高城乡居民基础养老金，要以新需求引领新供 给，以新供给创造新需求。适应消费结 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The central economic work conference shows increased confidence in the economy and a shift towards high - quality development. Fiscal and monetary policies will continue the 2024 tone. The 2026 deficit rate may remain at 4%, and government bond supply may only slightly increase. The central bank is cautious about the timing of interest rate cuts, and the implementation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts may require a change in the policy's perception of the fundamentals. If credit expansion is lower than expected, there may be an adjustment in policy orientation in Q1. The current bond market reaction is less active than in 2023, and the performance of the A - share market is also worthy of further observation. The year - end liquidity is expected to remain loose [4][5][31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1.1 This Week's Fundamentals Review - The central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 4.7 billion yuan this week, with limited impact. Due to low initial - month capital demand and reduced government bond payment pressure, funds remained loose. The overnight anonymous lower limit dropped to 1.25%, and DR001 fell below 1.30% after Tuesday and continued to decline, reaching 1.27% on Friday, a new low since August 2023. The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation on the 15th, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan [2][17] - The trading volume of pledged repurchase continued to rise, with the daily average volume increasing by 150 billion yuan to 8.08 trillion yuan compared to last week, reaching a new high since July. Banks' net lending increased compared to last week, with joint - stock banks having the largest increase; non - bank institutions' rigid borrowing scale continued to rise, with funds having the largest increase. The capital gap index fluctuated and declined, reaching - 716.3 billion yuan on Friday, lower than - 470.8 billion yuan last Friday [3][23] 3.2 1.2 Next Week's Fund Outlook - The scale of next week's 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity will slightly increase from 663.8 billion yuan to 668.5 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds will drop from 14.8 billion yuan this week to - 3.9 billion yuan, mainly concentrated in the second half of the week, but the overall scale is relatively limited. On the 15th, the central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan. The online issuance of Beijie Stock Exchange's new stock Jiangtian Technology on the 16th may disrupt the exchange's capital prices from Tuesday to Wednesday. The DR001 is expected to remain in the range of 1.3% - 1.4% and may slightly decline, and there may be some fluctuations in the second half of the month, but the year - end liquidity is expected to remain loose [10][68] - The scale of next week's national debt payment is about 304 billion yuan, and the local debt issuance scale of 6 regions is 40 billion yuan, with an actual payment scale of 56.3 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds will drop to - 3.9 billion yuan. It is estimated that the national debt issuance scale in December will be about 1.8 trillion yuan and the net financing scale will be about 320 billion yuan; the local debt issuance scale will be about 350 billion yuan and the net financing scale will be about 230 billion yuan. The overall government bond issuance scale in December is expected to be about 2.15 trillion yuan, and the net financing will be about 54 billion yuan [6][58] 3.3 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1 - year Shibor rate rose 0.1BP to 1.65% compared to December 5th. The secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit rose 0.5BP to 1.66% compared to last week [69] - This week, the increase in the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit was less than the maturity scale, and they turned to a net repayment of 119.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 128.9 billion yuan compared to last week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, rural commercial banks, city commercial banks, and joint - stock banks were - 16.2 billion yuan, - 18.3 billion yuan, 3.4 billion yuan, and - 68.5 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 6 - month certificates of deposit was the highest at 43%, and the issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased from 22% to 15%. The maturity scale of certificates of deposit next week is about 1.0648 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.4 billion yuan compared to this week [11][74] - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks increased compared to last week, while that of rural commercial banks decreased, and all banks were near the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed. The relative supply - demand strength index of certificates of deposit fluctuated upward, mainly due to the significant increase in the willingness of money market funds to increase holdings. The index rose to 33.7% on Friday, an increase of 5.2 percentage points compared to last week. The supply - demand index of 1 - year varieties decreased, while those of other maturities increased [11][86] 3.4 3. Bill Market - Bill rates continued to rise after Wednesday. As of December 12th, the rates of 3 - month and 6 - month national bills rose 3BP and 9BP respectively compared to December 5th, reaching 0.45% and 0.90% [94] 3.5 4. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - The bond market fluctuated strongly this week, and the credit and perpetual bond spreads were generally stable. The willingness of large banks to increase bond holdings increased, especially for inter - bank certificates of deposit, short - term national bonds, and short - term policy financial bonds. Trading institutions tended to increase bond holdings, while the willingness of allocation institutions to increase bond holdings decreased significantly [12][96]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to November, a total of 42,770 billion yuan of new local government special bonds were issued, achieving a progress rate of 97%, effectively supporting the acceleration of construction projects across various regions [1] - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds was completed in October, one month ahead of last year, providing timely support for the accelerated development of major infrastructure and livelihood projects [1] Group 2 - Fiscal policy has become more proactive this year, with direct benefits to individuals through subsidies for childcare, elderly services, and personal consumption loan interest [3] - In the first ten months, expenditures in science and technology, social security and employment, and energy conservation and environmental protection all increased by over 5% year-on-year, ensuring strong support for key areas [3] Group 3 - Monetary policy remains moderately loose, with new corporate loans and personal housing loan rates in November decreasing by approximately 30 basis points and 3 basis points year-on-year, respectively, while the overall financing costs remain low [5] - Structural monetary policy tools have been implemented rapidly, with 500 billion yuan of new policy-based financial instruments fully deployed, focusing on supporting over 2,300 projects in the digital economy and artificial intelligence [5] Group 4 - This year, policies in fiscal, monetary, employment, industry, technology, and environmental sectors have formed a synergistic effect, enhancing macroeconomic regulation and continuously activating the internal driving force of the economy [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - end of the treasury bond futures market recovered this week, while the ultra - long end had a slight correction. The TL contract closed down on Friday after recovering on Wednesday and Thursday. The yield curve flattened. - The tone of monetary policy remains unchanged after the Central Economic Work Conference. It will still support the real economy and consumption and boost inflation in the future, possibly using both structural and aggregate tools. Although there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, their impact on the bond market may be limited. - In the medium term, due to the relatively restrained monetary policy of the central bank, the change in inflation expectations, the orientation of medium - and long - term capital inflows, and the inability to falsify the 14th Five - Year Plan policy expectations, the overall view is that the market will fluctuate with a slightly bearish trend [1]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - The short - end of the treasury bond futures market recovered, and the ultra - long end had a slight correction. The TL contract closed down on Friday after recovering on Wednesday and Thursday, and the yield curve flattened. - The Central Economic Work Conference further clarified the direction and tasks of next year's economic work. Traditional growth - stabilizing areas released many growth - stabilizing signals, exceeding market expectations. It mentioned "flexibly and efficiently using reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" and required "maintaining ample liquidity", which is positive for macro - assets in terms of liquidity. - Fiscal policy requires "maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and total expenditure". It is expected that the deficit ratio will remain stable next year, and the total deficit scale will continue to expand moderately, which will positively guide the market's total demand expectations. - The long - end of the treasury bond futures market led the rise, and the short - end followed. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds has risen to a nearly two - year high, indicating the value of the ultra - long end. The logic of asset shortage, the easing of deflation pressure, and the loose tone of monetary policy provide medium - and long - term bottom support for the bond market, but attention should be paid to the impact of equity market fluctuations and policy implementation rhythm on the long - end [4][6]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking No specific content is provided in the given text, only a figure title is mentioned [8]. 3.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change of net long positions by institutional type: private funds decreased by 0.67%; foreign capital decreased by 0.61%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 1.44%. - In terms of the weekly change: private funds decreased by 1.91%; foreign capital increased by 1.9%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 1.11% [10].

Price Performance - CPI shows a continuous decline in pork prices, while fruit and vegetable prices are on the rise, with a recent increase of 0.71%[2] - PPI indicates rising prices for crude oil and non-ferrous metals, with WTI prices increasing by 4.39%[2] Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Consumer demand is slightly cooling, with retail sales of passenger cars declining by 3.8% year-on-year[3] - External demand is also weakening, as indicated by a 16.9% month-on-month drop in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)[3] Domestic Macro - Production Side - Production continues to decline, with a decrease of 1.53 percentage points in the industrial production index[3] - Real estate and infrastructure investment is also on a downward trend, with a decline of 2.46 percentage points[3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for next year is expected to remain proactive, with a focus on stimulating economic growth[4] - The recent Central Economic Work Conference has set a relatively positive tone for future economic policies[4] Monetary and Liquidity Conditions - The yield curve for government bonds has slightly shifted downwards, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy[4] - SHIBOR rates have shown minor fluctuations, with the 7-day SHIBOR at 1.4510%, up by 4 basis points[4] International Macro and Market - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with a dovish tone from Chairman Powell[4] - Market expectations indicate a potential for further rate cuts, with probabilities for rates below 2.5% increasing significantly[4]

11日凌晨，美联储公布年内最后一次利率决议。 "三连降" 继9月、10月分别降息25基点后，美联储再宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75%。 对此次降息，美联储内部存在分歧，12名投票委员中，有3人投票反对，这是自2019年9月以来首次出现该情况。美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)分析 称，9比3的投票结果再次体现了美联储内部鹰派和鸽派的分歧，芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比和堪萨斯城联储主席杰弗里·施密德均投票反对降息，而美 联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰则呼吁降息0.5个百分点。在美联储内部，鹰派通常更关注通胀，倾向于维持高利率，而鸽派则更关注劳动力市场，希望降低利率。 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，希望通货膨胀得到控制，回落到2%以下，也希望劳动力市场强劲；由于关税的影响，通胀仍然"处于较高水平"； 美联储将逐次会议做出决定，货币政策并不存在预定的路径；政策在朝着中性利率方向调整，目前已处于中性利率区间的高位。 资本市场对美联储降息反应明显，美股三大指数集体攀升，截至发稿，道指涨超1%，纳指翻红涨0.48%，标普500指数涨0.77%。美联储还宣布恢复美国国债 的购买，美债收 ...

（原标题：国联民生：2026年什么原因可能导致明年美元意外升值？ 关注第三、四季度经济节奏阶段 性反转可能性） 除此之外，迫于国内的通胀压力，白宫可能会进一步向下调整关税水平，这一方面是会缓解非美经济体 的压力，另一方面则会导致美国财政的进一步恶化。 智通财经APP获悉，国联民生发布研报称，明年美元预计仍处于弱周期中，但是可能并没有想象中那么 差：年初需要警惕的是特朗普提名的新联储主席在宽松上"措辞谨慎"，明年下半年则要警惕美国和非美 经济体经济表现的阶段性强弱转换。而期间则需要关注日本央行的独立性问题，以及法国等高负债欧洲 国家的阶段性财政担忧。 国联民生主要观点如下： 最近几年，站在年末看下一年的美元走势很容易出错。以去年年底为例子，特朗普意外横扫、重回白宫 之后，市场情绪亢奋，在经济过热、通胀上行预期的指引下，多数人认为美元会延续强势，结果今年美 元在1月就见顶，年内最多跌超10%。如果站在今年年底来判断，美元偏弱可能是明年的基本情形。 如果明年美元有再次违背预期的可能，什么原因可能导致明年美元意外升值？ 为什么市场认为明年美元会偏弱？没有了美国例外论的光环，市场会更加客观地看待美国和非美之间的 关系： ...

中央经济工作会议定调明年经济政策 1、中央经济工作会议定调明年经济政策。 中央经济工作会议在北京举行，定调明年经济工作，强调要继续实施更加积极的财政政 策，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，重视解决地方财政困难。要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降 息等多种政策工具。会议确定8方面重点任务，提出要优化"两新"政策实施，清理消费领域不合理限制措施。推动投资止跌回稳，适 当增加中央预算内投资规模。坚持创新驱动，深化拓展"人工智能 "。深入整治"内卷式"竞争。加快新型能源体系建设，扩大绿电应 用。倡导积极婚育观，努力稳定新出生人口规模。着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重 点用于保障性住房等。多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经营性债务风险。 2、商务部将出台加快零售业创新发展意见。 旨在通过统筹规划、合理布局，提升商品和服务质量，协同优化存量和增量，推动线上 线下公平竞争，以实现新供给与新需求的良性互动。这一政策有望为零售行业带来新的发展机遇，促进市场活力提升。 3、11月中国汽车产销同比增长，新能源汽车占比超五成。 中国汽车工业协会数据显示，11月汽车产销分别完 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the discussions between the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of Bosnia and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the economic outlook and fiscal policies of the Federation of Bosnia [1] - The IMF emphasized the importance of maintaining long-term fiscal stability in the Federation of Bosnia during the meeting [1] - The meeting welcomed the efforts of the Federation's Ministry of Finance to advance the new Transaction Tax Law and discussed the technical assistance that the IMF would provide to the ministry [1]

密集宏观事件落地，虽未有超预期 增量政策，但建议偏乐观看待 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 锰硅周报 2025/12/13 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 06 图形走势 产业链示意图 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 ◆ 天津6517锰硅现货市场报价5700元/吨，环比-20元/吨；期货主力（SM603）收盘报5730元/吨，环比-28元/吨；基差160元/吨，环比+8元/吨， 基差率2.74%，处于历史统计值的偏高水平。 ◆ 利润：锰硅测算即期利润（不含折旧等费用）维持低位，内蒙-551元/吨，环比+27元/吨；宁夏-707元/吨，环比-42元/吨；广西-671元/吨， 环比+76元/吨。（利润为测算值，仅供参考） ◆ 成本：测算内蒙锰硅即期成本（不含折旧等费用)在6071元/吨，环比-37元/吨；宁夏在6187元/吨，环比+2元/吨；广西在6271元/吨，环比- 26元/吨。（成本为测算值，仅供参考） ◆ 供 ...