Core Viewpoint - The release of mid-year performance forecasts significantly impacts the re-evaluation of listed companies' valuations, necessitating thorough analysis by investors [1] Group 1: Importance of Performance Forecasts - Mid-year performance forecasts are crucial for the capital market as they reflect market expectations regarding a company's future profitability and development prospects [1] - Positive performance forecasts can lead to an upward adjustment in valuations, attracting more capital and driving stock prices up, while negative forecasts may raise concerns about future development, leading to valuation downgrades and stock price pressure [1] Group 2: Comparative Analysis - Comparing a company's performance forecast with its competitors is essential for understanding its industry position and future prospects [2] - A significant increase in a company's performance compared to competitors, along with advantages in market share and technological innovation, may indicate a favorable competitive position and greater investment potential [2] - Conversely, if a company's performance lags behind competitors, it is important to investigate the reasons and assess potential challenges and investment risks [2] Group 3: Historical Performance Comparison - Comparing current performance forecasts with a company's historical performance helps assess the sustainability of growth and stability [2] - Consistent and stable growth in past performance, along with a positive current forecast, indicates strong operational capability and resilience, warranting long-term attention [2] - Significant fluctuations in past performance, especially with a current forecast showing a sharp decline, should prompt caution among investors to avoid potential investment traps [2] Group 4: Analytical Approach - A multi-faceted analysis of mid-year performance forecasts aids investors in accurately evaluating a company's value and provides a scientific basis for investment decisions [3] - Maintaining keen insight and a rigorous analytical approach is essential for identifying genuine investment opportunities amidst complex market information [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative drug sector is experiencing a resurgence, driven by active business development (BD) transactions and favorable policies, leading to improved revenue expectations for innovative drug companies starting from mid-2024 [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong innovative drug ETFs saw increases of 2.25% and 1.15% respectively on June 24, with notable stock price rises for companies like Rongchang Biopharma (6.38% increase in A-shares) and Green Leaf Pharmaceutical (over 9.5% increase in H-shares) [1]. - The A-share innovative drug sector has risen nearly 25% from its low on April 8 to June 23, with a total inflow of 945 billion and financing purchases of 1,148 billion [4]. Group 2: Business Development Trends - There has been a significant increase in "outbound" BD transactions for Chinese innovative drugs, with major deals such as the 6.7 billion USD agreement between Heptares and Otsuka Pharmaceutical [2]. - The trend of international pharmaceutical companies acquiring innovative drug projects before commercialization is becoming more common, driven by the need to replenish their pipelines due to patent expirations [2][3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Companies like Saint Noble Bio are forecasting substantial profit increases, with expected net profits for the first half of 2025 projected to grow by 253.54% to 332.1% year-on-year [4]. - A total of 17 commercialized innovative drug companies are expected to achieve 913 billion in product sales revenue in 2024, reflecting a 35% year-on-year growth [5]. Group 4: Policy Support - Recent policies have been implemented to support innovative drug development, including expedited clinical trial approvals and a multi-layered insurance system that combines basic medical insurance with commercial insurance [6]. - The introduction of commercial health insurance for innovative drugs is expected to enhance the market environment, transitioning from reliance on basic medical insurance to a dual support system [6]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The innovative drug sector is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory due to ongoing policy support, technological advancements, and international expansion, with a potential for sustained valuation reassessment [7]. - Increased investment in innovative drug companies is expected, although caution is advised regarding potential overvaluation in some cases [7].

6月24日收盘，沪指重回3400点上方， 创业板指领涨。沪深两市全天成交额1.41万亿，较上个交易日放 量2920亿。截至收盘，A500ETF银河( 563660)上涨1.02%，最新价报0.99元。 成分股方面， 国轩高科 (002074)上涨10.02%， 光迅科技(002281)上涨10.00%， 容百科技(688005)上涨8.26%。 中国银河证券表 示，A股当前估值处于历史中等水平，且相较海外成熟市场偏低，风险溢价和股息率具备较高投资性价 比。在政策推动中长期资金入市、权益类公募基金扩容及政策工具护航下，A股资金面有望延续稳中向 好态势。 华金证券表示，国内政策持续积极，如央行在 陆家嘴论坛推出多项金融开放举措，以及财政 补贴推动内需修复。流动性方面，美元指数低位震荡、人民币升值预期增强，有利于外资流入。行业配 置方面，建议聚焦估值性价比，均衡配置科技成长与低估值蓝筹。 市场风格快速轮动，博弈属性加 剧， 中证A500指数等均衡宽基或是把握估值中枢提升的较好方式。银河基金身为国内资产管理能力突 出的老牌基金公司，深耕资管领域23载 。作为银河基金旗下紧密跟踪中证 A500 指数的 ETF 产品， ...

Market Overview and Key Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline last week, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.43% and the Hang Seng Technology Index falling by 2.03%. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index decreased by 0.70% [1] - The information technology sector led the gains among Hang Seng's primary industries, while healthcare and energy sectors saw the largest declines [1] - There was a significant increase in passive foreign capital inflows, with a net inflow of $1.64 billion into Chinese stocks from foreign investors, compared to a net inflow of $0.03 billion the previous week [1] - Southbound capital also remained strong, with a net inflow of HKD 16.3 billion [1] Dividend Strategy and Outlook - The dividend yield of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index reached 7.90%, significantly higher than the 5.56% yield of the CSI Dividend Index. The price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.62, and the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 6.79 [2] - Since the beginning of 2021, the total return of the full return index has been 114%, outperforming the Hang Seng full return index by 113% [2] - The low interest rate environment and weak economic recovery in China are favorable for dividend strategies, with state-owned enterprises showing strong willingness and capability for dividend distribution [2] ETF Performance - The Huaan Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (code: 513920) tracks the Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index and aims to reflect the performance of high-dividend securities listed in Hong Kong with major shareholders being mainland state-owned enterprises [3] - The ETF is the first in the market to combine attributes of Hong Kong stocks, state-owned enterprises, and dividends [3] - The ETF had a scale of CNY 1.4856 billion and a weekly trading volume of CNY 1.012 billion [4] Top Holdings in the Dividend Index - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index include: - China COSCO Shipping (4.7% weight, 12-month dividend yield of 13.0%) - Orient Overseas International (4.5% weight, 12-month dividend yield of 11.4%) - New China Life Insurance (3.6% weight, 12-month dividend yield of 3.9%) - China National Offshore Oil (2.8% weight, 12-month dividend yield of 7.8%) [5]

周一期货价震荡,现货涨跌不一,成交环比略好一些,回升到 10wt上方,价格反弹驱动还不够明显。产业上,成本端, 煤焦期货盘面从顺畅下跌趋势转成抵抗式的震荡行情,这使得黑色板块成本坍塌的叙事随之陷入不流畅的状态,短期看, 焦价格来到低位区间之后,对供给瑞微妙变化的影响会非常敏感,从而导致价格跟随波动,若着跟于中长期及产业周期的逻 辑,不管是从绝对估值或结构出清,当前并不能定义碳元素价格已经见底。综合看,淡季里市场参与者仍担忧需求会下一 台阶,现货持货意愿不强,有利润快速兑现以及高周转,是市场的主流思路,在这样的环境下不认为黑色板块有强反弹驱 动。此外,钢材基差还是期货贴水现货的结构,虽然近期已经收缩了很多,还有一些空间:后边现货淡季,可能会通过现货 更弱的方式,现货向期货修复走反套逻辑,这一点可以作为对期现基差交易的参考。 器色盒属数据日报 2025/06/24 | 25/06/24 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F028 ...

半年度报告-国债期货 因势利导，进退有度 国 债 期 债市对于经济形势已有充分认识，研究基本面的主要意义是判 断债市是否会出现趋势性转熊的风险。下半年，美国的财政政 策力度并未很强，在贸易摩擦的影响下，滞胀压力会逐渐显性 化。国内方面，外需和内需均存在着自发走弱的压力，财政发 力必要性凸显。财政以托底、转型为主，其应在 Q3 中后期 Q4 中前期温和发力，最终经济增速先降后升，波动整体不大。供 强于求的问题难以在短期内解决，通胀水平偏低运行。基本面 利多国债的格局不会发生变化，下半年中前期的利多会更明显 一点，但由于经济增速波动不大，通胀进一步下降的概率也不 高，基本面对于债市的进一步利多也有限。 货 ★货币与债市估值：相似的政策节奏，不同的心态与估值 货币政策与资金面对于债市的影响更为直接，其决定了债市的 节奏。稳汇率压力明显下降的背景下，货币政策整体的基调是 适度宽松的，8-9 月降息概率较高，流动性整体会处于偏宽松的 状态上，但是若利率快速下行，央行或将提示利率风险。Q3 政 策节奏和往年类似，但债市和过去今年存在多方面的差异：一 是心态更趋谨慎；二是负债端扰动不时出现，机构行为不如往 年积极；三是市场 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on June 24, with a V-shaped rebound in the innovative drug sector, as the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index showed fluctuations, with stocks like Jingtai Holdings rising over 3% and others like Aosheng Pharmaceutical-B and Rongchang Bio rising nearly 2% [1] - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (159567) also experienced a V-shaped rebound, increasing by 1.92% with a trading volume exceeding 1.3 billion yuan, closely tracking the performance of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index [1] - Recent months have seen significant foreign licensing deals from Chinese innovative drug companies, including a deal from 3SBio worth over 6 billion USD and a strategic R&D cooperation agreement between CSPC and AstraZeneca valued at 5.33 billion USD, highlighting the increasing value of Chinese innovative drug products [1] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical industry has recently received positive policy signals, with the NMPA optimizing the clinical trial review and approval process, leading to a steady increase in clinical trial numbers, benefiting innovative drug companies with differentiated capabilities and the CXO industry [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced new listing standards for the third board of the Growth Enterprise Market and the fifth board of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, broadening financing channels for unprofitable innovative drug companies and alleviating cash flow pressures [2] - It is recommended to focus on innovative drug companies with clear clinical value and strong commercialization capabilities, as well as CXO enterprises with international potential, to seize valuation recovery opportunities driven by policy catalysts [2]

2025 年 06 月 24 日 甲醇：地缘缓解，偏弱运行 | 黄天圆 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 | Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 杨鈜汉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 甲醇基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 甲醇主力 （09合约） | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,504 | 2,529 | -25 493868 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,512 | 2,538 | -26 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 2,496,954 | 2,003,086 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 993,459 | 884,704 | 108755 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,867 | 7,925 | -58 | | ...

Primary Market Review - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds last week was 430.8 billion, 261.8 billion, and 162 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 135.1 billion, 124.3 billion, and 63.6 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) had a total issuance scale of 122.5 billion, with a net financing amount of -7.2 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds had a total issuance scale of 392.8 billion, with a net financing amount of 107.3 billion [1] - Two new convertible bonds were issued, with an expected financing scale of 0.9 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - Short-term interest rates in the bond market decreased while long-term rates fluctuated, influenced by factors such as liquidity, the Lujiazui conference, institutional behaviors, and geopolitical conflicts [2] Liquidity Tracking - Last week, there was a net injection through OMO, while MLF matured and was withdrawn, with the central bank conducting buyback operations to support the liquidity during the tax period [3] - The R001 and R007 rates decreased by 1.4 basis points and increased by 1 basis point respectively compared to the previous week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - Economic data for May showed stable production, rising consumption, and declining investment, with structural concerns remaining [4] - High-frequency data indicated a month-on-month decline in production, a decrease in both domestic and external consumption, and price differentiation in the production and residential sectors, with the Middle East conflict driving oil prices significantly higher [4] Overseas Market - The Federal Reserve's June FOMC statement was slightly hawkish, but U.S. consumption and production data were disappointing, exacerbating risk aversion in overseas markets [5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.38%, down 3 basis points from the previous week [5] Equity Market - The A-share market experienced a decline in most broad-based indices due to capital outflows from new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as the impact of the Israel-Palestine conflict [6] - Specifically, the Wind All A index fell by 1.07%, the Wind Micro-Cap index dropped by 2.18%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.45%, and the Sci-Tech 50 fell by 1.55% [6] - A-share trading volume decreased, with an average daily turnover of 1.22 trillion, down 156.644 billion week-on-week [6] - As of June 19, 2025, the total financing balance for the entire A-share market was 1,809.167 billion, an increase of 0.188 billion from June 12 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - Factors favorable to the bond market are gradually increasing in the second half of the year, with bond yields likely to face upward pressure [7] - The 10-year government bond yield has already reflected macro expectations to some extent, and short-term long-end rates are unlikely to present significant excess opportunities in the near term [7] - Short-term rates are still some distance from previous lows, and banks are balancing duration pressures, which may accumulate buying power for short-term bonds [7] - The logic of under-allocation in credit bonds continues, with a strategy prioritizing coupon collection in the short term [7] - In the convertible bond market, supply-demand conflicts persist, and liquidity remains relatively loose, with some banks redeeming convertible bonds, making core varieties scarcer [7] - The convertible bond index has reached the upper range of its fluctuation zone, and opportunities in the index require catalysts, necessitating a focus on switching core varieties and monitoring for trading opportunities driven by sentiment [7]

以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者李金玲 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您 的财富保驾护航。 数据速看： 1、巴菲特指标： 当前A股巴菲特指标为75.04%，处于相对较高区间，目前处于安全区间。 2、估值历史百分位水平： 目前市场主要宽基指数中只有创业板指的PE估值（TTM）低于20%，为14.95%。北证50、中证A100和 科创50的PE估值（TTM）分别处于上市92.50%、96.83%和97.51%的分位水平，估值分位相对较高，应 注意风险。 行业方面： 当前申万一级行业指数中农林牧渔的PE估值（TTM）、PB估值和PS估值均低于近十年20%分位水平， 其PE（TTM）估值处于近十年4.41%的分位水平，PB估值处于近十年3.97%分位水平，PS估值则处于近 十年12.11%%的分位水平，均处于近十年较低水平，可作为重点关注。 计算机和房地产的行业PE估值（TTM）分别处于近十年历史88.41%和96.87%分位水平，应注意投资风 险。 宽基指数方面： ...