2025年07月04日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | 基本面：美国大漂亮法案在众议院通过，美国非农数据超预期，降息预期延迟。国内周度库存增加 0.57 万吨， | | | 铜 | 华东华南平水铜升水 80 元和 30 元。伦敦结构 109 美金 back。 | | | | 交易策略：突破 1 万美金后或有震荡整理，但上行方向不变。 | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2508 合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.41%，收于 20580 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 330 元/吨， | | | | | LME 价格 2608.5 美元/吨。 | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观环境呈现利好。但沪铝基本面面临需求走弱及成本支撑趋弱的双重压力，存在潜在下行风险， | | | | 建议谨慎看多。 | | | | 风险提示：海内外宏 ...

2025年07月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，逢低正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：单边震荡市 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡运行格局延续 | 6 | | 沥青：暂时震荡，关注地缘 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏强震荡 | 10 | | PP：现货震荡，成交平淡 | 12 | | 烧碱：关注液氯的影响 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：窄幅震荡 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 25 | | PVC：短期偏强，后期仍有压力 | 28 | | 燃料油：短期弱势调整为主，盘面波动低位 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘偏强，外盘现货高低硫价差继续上行 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：08震荡整理；10空单轻仓持有 | 31 | | 短纤：短期震荡 | 35 | | 瓶片：短期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Supply and demand are in tight balance, recommend going long on the near - month contract and short on the far - month contract [1] - PTA: Go long on PX and short on PTA [1] - MEG: Sideways market for single - sided trading [1] 2. Core Views - PX: Only the Fuhua plant reduced its load this week. Attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans for plants such as Zhejiang Petrochemical. PTA plant production cuts impact PX demand. Near - month PX supply and demand remain tight, and floating prices are high. Focus on positions for compressing far - month PXN [6] - PTA: Yisheng Hainan unexpectedly reduced its load this week, and the operating rate dropped to 77.7%. Polyester operating rate decreased to 90.6%, and overall PTA supply and demand are balanced. The basis is expected to be slightly strong, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure from late July to August, and the overall trend is expected to be weak. Short the processing fee on rallies [6] - MEG: It is in a sideways market. This week, the port arrival volume increased significantly, and port inventory increased by 60,000 tons month - on - month, which is negative for the month - spread. However, there have been many changes in Saudi Arabian plants, and the Yanbu plant's 1.1 million - ton ethylene glycol production was reduced by 70% due to an accident. Pay attention to the possible decline in Saudi Arabian imports in August [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: Naphtha prices remained strong at the end of the session. On the 3rd, PX prices fell. Three August Asian spot transactions were at $861, $859, and $858 respectively, and two September Asian spot transactions were both at $844. The PX valuation on the 3rd was $849/ton, a $5 decrease from the 2nd [3] - PTA: In the Chinese mainland, Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 - million - ton plant increased its load, Hengli's 2.2 - million - ton plant restarted, Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton plant shut down, and Yisheng Hainan and Yisheng Dalian's PTA plants reduced their loads. By Thursday, the PTA operating rate dropped to 77.7%. According to another calculation method, the current PTA operating rate is around 83.6% [3] - MEG: As of July 3rd, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 66.51% (a 0.76% month - on - month decrease), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 69.34% (a 2.15% month - on - month decrease) [3] - Polyester: Recently, some plants have arranged maintenance one after another, but the loads of other plants have also been adjusted locally. Overall, the polyester load is slightly declining in a volatile manner. As of Thursday, the preliminary calculation of the polyester load in the Chinese mainland is around 90.6%. The operating load of large - scale polyester industrial yarn manufacturers has basically remained stable, and as of Thursday, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn is around 73%. On the 3rd, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate estimated at 40% - 50% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales rate of 42% by 3:00 pm [5] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 [6] - PTA trend intensity: 1 [6] - MEG trend intensity: 1 [6] Futures and Spot Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6740 | 4746 | 4288 | 6564 | 506.3 | | Change | 6790 | - 48 | - 11 | - 58 | 8.1 | | Change Rate | - 0.74% | - 1.00% | - 0.26% | - 0.88% | 1.63% | | Month - spread | PX9 - 1 | PTA9 - 1 | MEG9 - 1 | PF8 - 9 | SC8 - 9 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 130 | 84 | - 36 | 120 | 5.7 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | 144 | 114 | - 33 | 120 | 5.5 | | Change | - 14 | - 30 | - 3 | 0 | 0.2 | | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | Yesterday's Price | 849.67 | 4872 | 4361 | 577.38 | 71.14 | | Previous Day's Price | 854 | 4920 | 4360 | 572.25 | 69.85 | | Change | - 4.33 | - 48 | 1 | 5.12 | 1.29 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Short - fiber Processing Fee | Bottle - chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 296.92 | 338.19 | 152.72 | - 559.28 | - 7.42 | | Previous Day's Price | 282.75 | 420.68 | 195.94 | - 574.07 | - 7.42 | | Change | 14.17 | - 82.49 | - 43.22 | 14.78 | 0 | [2]

2025 年 07 月 04 日 铝：震荡运行 氧化铝：关注检修复产情况 铸造铝合金：下方有支撑 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20680 | 45 | 235 | 525 | -290 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20650 | ー | ー | ー | - | LME铝3M收盘价 | -9 | 21 | -100 | 2606 | 140 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | -32049 | 114240 | -38170 | -13972 | -31124 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 281092 | -2637 | 20543 | 75009 | 21376 | 电解铝 | | LME铝3M成交量 | 19089 | -4436 | 1800 | 1825 | 2467 | LME注销仓单占比 | 2. 30% | -0. 11% | -1. 87% | -13. 78% ...

| | | | 国投期货 Millio | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月03日 | | 棉花, | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★★★ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | 女女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，棉花现货交投大多冷清：基差总体持稳，纯棉纱成交依旧偏清淡，下游需求仍旧不足，市场交投不佳,纯 棉纱纺企库存继续累积，诚停产增多。截至6月15号，棉花商业库存为312.69万吨，较5月底减少33.18万吨，消化仍然良好，棉 花库存仍存偏紧预期。宏观上，美国和越南达成贸易协议，美国将对进口越南商品征收20% ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.07.03） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：79500-81000 中期观点：60000-90000 参考策略：震荡偏强操作思路，买入看涨期权策略择机止盈 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，美联储官员表示，关税将提升通胀，但没必要因此而加息，年 内大概率有一次降息。 2、供给方面，智利国家统计局数据显示，智利5月铜产量为486574吨，环比增 加4.9%，为年内最高水平，且较上年同期增加9.4%。MMG和Hudbay Minerals旗下的 秘鲁矿山正在遭受手工采矿者-非正规矿工的封锁道路，扰乱矿山的物流运输，MMG旗 下Las Bambas(2025年预计年铜产量38万金属吨)和Hudbay旗下Constancia(2025年预 计年铜产量8-9.7万金属吨)铜矿运输中断。 3、需求方面，现货市场方面，上海、广东地区下游的消费需求受到铜价上涨 所抑制，市场新增订单难有增加，企业逢低刚需补库。华北地区部分现货商下调报价 出货，市场整体成交冷清。重庆地区铜厂采购情绪仍受淡季弱需求所主导。 4、库存方面，7月2日，上期所铜仓单增加324吨至25097吨。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Lead Market**: The lead price has been rising due to raw material constraints and reduced production in the secondary lead sector. However, as the market is not yet in the peak - consumption season, there is a risk of inventory accumulation, which may limit the upward momentum of the lead price [1]. - **Zinc Market**: The zinc price has rebounded recently due to positive macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. But after the rebound, it has suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, leading to inventory accumulation. The upside potential is limited, and investors should watch for short - selling opportunities when favorable factors disappear [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Lead Market** - **Price Movements**: On July 3, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price remained unchanged from the previous day, while the Shanghai lead futures main contract closed 0.44% higher than the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) closed at $2,063.50 per ton, up 1.20%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.32, down 0.75% [1]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, rising scrap lead - acid battery prices, limited recycler supplies, and strong hoarding sentiment among stores have led to some refineries reducing or halting production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. The inventory of secondary lead products is increasing [1]. - **Demand**: The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchasing is expected to improve, which may reduce the downward pressure on lead prices [1]. - **Industry News**: A secondary lead smelter in the western region with a capacity of 200,000 tons suspended production in May due to equipment failures and is expected to complete repairs by late July. If equipment debugging goes smoothly, it may resume normal production in August. Recently, domestic reduced lead supplies have been tight, and prices have been firm. Overseas crude lead (mostly from Malaysia) arrived at the port this week, with a known trading volume of about 1,000 tons [1]. **Zinc Market** - **Price Movements**: On July 3, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price increased by 0.05% from the previous day, while the Shanghai zinc futures main contract closed 0.11% lower. The LME3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) closed at $2,753.00 per ton, up 1.46%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.07, down 1.55% [1]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc concentrate processing fees have been rising. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee increased by 200 yuan/metal ton to 3,800 yuan/metal ton last week, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee index rose by $9.98/dry ton to $65.25/dry ton. The production of zinc is showing an increasing trend [1]. - **Demand**: The zinc price rebound has reached a level that downstream buyers find unacceptable, and the weak demand has led to mainly just - in - time purchases [1]. - **Industry News**: On July 1, the LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $18.75 per ton, with open interest increasing by 842 to 208,381 contracts [1].

PP：现货小跌，成交平淡 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 2025 年 7 月 3 日 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | PP 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | PP2509 | 7072 | 0.34% | 223,735 | -12023 | | | | 昨日价差 | | | 前日价差 | | 价 差 | 09合约基差 | -22 | | | 6 | | | 09-01合约价差 | 4 4 | | | 4 8 | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | | | 前日价格（元/吨） | | | 华北 | 7000 - 7150 | | 7010 - | 7150 | | | 华东 | 7050 - 7200 | | 7050 - | 7220 | | | 华南 | 7060 - 7220 | | 7080 - | 7220 | 资料来源：卓创资讯，隆众资讯、国泰君安期货 ...

2025年07月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：逢低正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG止盈 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡运行格局延续 | 6 | | 沥青：随油小涨 | 8 | | PP：现货小跌，成交平淡 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：震荡运行格局延续 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 21 | | 燃料油：震荡走势为主，短期波动下降 | 24 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘小幅走弱，外盘现货高低硫价差继续上行 | 24 | | 集运指数（欧线）：08震荡整理；10空单轻仓持有 | 25 | | 短纤：短期震荡 | 29 | | 瓶片：短期震荡，多PR空PF | 29 | | 胶版印刷纸：震荡运行 | 30 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Go long on PX in the event of a price dip and initiate a calendar spread trade [1] - PTA: Go long on PX and short on PTA [1] - MEG: Take profit on the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG [1] 2. Core Views - The market is focused on potential supply contractions due to the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, leading to a significant increase in black building materials futures. Polyester performance remains mediocre. The main issue in the polyester industry is insufficient demand [6]. - Crude oil prices have risen significantly, providing strong support for PX valuation. Multiple PX plants are under maintenance, resulting in a decline in domestic operating rates. Overall, the supply - demand situation for PX is tight [6]. - PTA's basis dropped significantly yesterday, but supply in July is slightly tight, still attracting buyers. The calendar spread may face pressure. After the reduction in bottle - chip production, polyester load has dropped to 89%, and PTA supply has increased month - on - month [6]. - There have been significant changes in overseas MEG plants. The overall increase in MEG supply is limited. With coal prices rebounding from the bottom and losses in the ethylene - purchased process, the downside space for MEG prices is limited [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: Naphtha prices rebounded slightly at the end of the session. PX prices declined today, with an August Asian spot trading at $875 and a September Asian spot at $854. The PX valuation closed at $861/ton, down $13 from yesterday [2]. - **PTA**: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Dalian, owned by Hengli, restarted at the end of the month after maintenance in mid - June. A 2 - million - ton PTA plant in South China reduced its load to about 50% due to an incident, expected to last about 4 days [3]. - **MEG**: From June 30 to July 6, the expected arrivals at Zhangjiagang Port are about 68,000 tons, at Taicang Port about 67,000 tons, at Ningbo Port about 15,000 tons, and at Shanghai Port about 0 tons. The total expected arrivals at major ports are about 150,000 tons [3]. - **Polyester**: A direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory in Ningbo plans to shut down a 30,000 - ton fine - denier hollow staple fiber production line this weekend for about 20 days of technical renovation. Yisheng's polyester bottle - chip plant in Hainan (1.25 million tons) started maintenance on July 1, with the restart time undetermined, while the planned maintenance of a 350,000 - ton plant in Dahua was cancelled. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak today, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 30% by 3:30 pm. The average sales - to - production ratio of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber was 47% by 3:00 pm [4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral outlook [6]. Historical Sales Data - In June, the average sales - to - production ratio of mainstream direct - spinning filament plants in China was about 97% (calculated based on shipments), down 5 percentage points from the previous month. The sales atmosphere in the filament market was weak in June due to strong costs and weakening demand [5].