| Million | > 国技期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月16日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，从目前中美谈判情况来看,虽然表态比较积极,但落实到具体措施仍有较多不确定性。棉花观货成交一 般,贸易商采购比较积极、基差稳中偏强。纯棉纱价格跟随原料价格有所上涨，但需求表现仍然一般。棉花现货价格坚挺,优 质资源逐渐减少,基差持续偏强,市场对于后期库存有偏紧的预期,截至5月底棉花商业库存为345.87万吨 ...

| | | | 国投期货 Million | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月13日 | | 棉花, | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 期价偏弱震荡。现货方面，主流报价持稳。需求进入淡季，虽然目前冷库苹果库存较低，但是时令水果上市量增加，天气也较 为炎热,苹果需求有所下降,现货价格涨势放缓。从交易逻辑来看,市场的交易重心转向新季度的估产。今年西部产区受到寒 潮和花期大风的影响，坐果率和苹果质量可能会受到一些影响。不过，4月份寒潮过程中低温对产量 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: "Commodity Research Institute Agricultural Product Research Report - Meal Daily Report" [1][2] - Date: June 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Market Review - US soybean futures showed a volatile trend with limited market changes; domestic soybean meal futures rebounded after a decline, and rapeseed meal futures strengthened significantly [4] - The inter - monthly spreads of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures were strong due to concerns about future supply shortages [4] Group 3: Price and Spread Data Futures and Basis - For soybean meal, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts in different regions had different changes, and the basis also changed; for rapeseed meal, similar price and basis changes were observed [4] Inter - monthly Spreads - For soybean meal, the 59 spread was - 319 (down 5), 91 spread was - 13 (up 4), and 15 spread was 332 (up 1); for rapeseed meal, the 59 spread was - 300 (down 25), 91 spread was 311 (up 22), and 15 spread was - 11 (up 3) [4] Cross - variety Spreads - The 01 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 699 (down 16), 09 spread was 375 (down 34), and the oil - meal ratio of 01 was 2.496 (up 0.001) [4] Spot Spreads - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 680 (up 14), between soybean meal and sunflower meal was 649 (down 18), and between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was 19 (down 2) [4] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis International Market - As of the week ending June 5, the good - to - excellent rate of US new - crop soybeans was 68%, and the export inspection volume of old - crop soybeans was 547,000 tons; the USDA - reported soybean crushing volume in April was 5.508 million tons, a 2.03% month - on - month decrease [5] - Brazilian farmers' selling progress was slow, and the recent soybean crushing volume decreased; Argentina's domestic soybean crushing growth might slow down [5] Domestic Market - As of June 6, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2446 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.1%; soybean inventory was 6.1029 million tons (up 4.7% week - on - week and 24.7% year - on - year), and soybean meal inventory was 382,500 tons (up 28.36% week - on - week and down 57% year - on - year) [6] - As of the week ending June 6, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 72,000 tons, with an operating rate of 19.19%; rapeseed inventory was 202,000 tons (down 30,000 tons week - on - week), and rapeseed meal inventory was 19,000 tons (down 1,000 tons week - on - week) [6] Group 5: Macro and Logic Analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London provided no clear macro guidance, and the market was still worried about supply uncertainties; with market stabilization, macro disturbances decreased [7] - Domestic soybean meal futures were volatile with limited fundamental positives; US soybean futures might face downward pressure; rapeseed meal futures were expected to be volatile [7] - The inter - monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures were expected to be strongly supported due to supply concerns [7] Group 6: Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, short positions in small amounts are recommended; for arbitrage, a long M11 - short M1 spread is recommended; for options, selling call options is recommended [8] Group 7: Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profits of soybeans from different origins (Argentina and Brazil) and different shipping dates varied, with some showing increases and some showing decreases compared to the previous day [9]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Spot gold surged after the CPI announcement, driven by optimistic inflation data, leading to increased bets on a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - Despite the bullish sentiment, gold's gains were limited by Trump's announcement of substantial progress in US-China negotiations, which shifted market dynamics [1] - Technical analysis indicates a significant resistance level at $3380, with potential upward movement if gold breaks above $3375, targeting $3410 [1] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Reports of Israel preparing for actions against Iran have escalated tensions in the Middle East, causing a sharp increase in international oil prices, reaching a two-month high [1] - The price of WTI crude oil successfully broke through the $66 mark and approached the strong resistance zone at $69, which is near the 200-day SMA [1] - If the price remains below $69, there is a possibility of a pullback to the $66 level, with key support at $66.2/66.5 and potential testing of $65.2 if broken [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of multiple chemical commodities, including their mid - term and short - term market outlooks, fundamental factors, and daily technical analysis, with most commodities showing a bearish or cautious outlook in the medium term [1][4][8][11][16][17][20][22][26][27][30]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Logic**: In the medium term, there is a strong expectation of oversupply due to OPEC+ accelerating production increases, but in the short term, geopolitical factors (unresolved US - Iran negotiations) and a warmer macro - environment have led to stronger prices. The mid - term fundamental pressure remains high [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The price has reached the upper pressure level, and the short - term support is at 474. The strategy is to wait for the short - term support to break on the hourly cycle [3]. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The cost - side pure benzene has high port inventory and strong import increase expectations, and domestic supply will be more abundant. Benzene ethylene port inventory is increasing, and supply is expected to remain high while demand has not improved. It is bearish in the medium term [4][7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is under test. The strategy is to focus on the short - selling opportunity after the 15 - minute cycle breaks the 7275 - 7400 oscillation range [7]. Rubber - **Logic**: The price of Thai glue has dropped nearly 20% in the past two weeks, indicating an increase in supply after the main production area starts harvesting. Terminal demand is weak, and the possibility of a squeeze on 20 - grade rubber has further dissipated. It is bearish in the medium term [8][10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 14000. The strategy is to wait for a new short - selling signal on the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are average. In June and the second half of the year, there is a large production pressure on cracking units, and the supply of butadiene is expected to increase, which will put pressure on synthetic rubber from the cost side. Demand is also suppressed by tire inventory pressure. It is bearish in the medium term [11][13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 11470. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference at 11470 [13]. PX - **Logic**: The supply - side profit has recovered, and PX units are gradually restarting. The short - term supply - demand is strengthening, and there are many maintenance plans in July, with a strong expectation of supply contraction. The fundamentals are strong, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 6630 - 6660. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends on the hourly cycle [16]. PTA - **Logic**: The supply - side units that were previously under maintenance are restarting, and the operating rate has risen to 78.97%. The demand - side polyester profit is weak, and the operating rate has declined slightly but remains at 91.3%. There is no short - term inventory accumulation pressure, but the supply - demand has weakened compared to before. Attention should be paid to the crude oil drive [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The upper pressure is at 4720. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4720 [19]. PP - **Logic**: The demand is weak in the off - season, and there are large - scale unit startups in June, with a strong expectation of increased supply. Short - term cost fluctuations due to crude oil also need attention [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 6980. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference at 6980 [20]. Methanol - **Logic**: High domestic unit profits have led to a high operating rate, and there is a large increase in imports. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, and the medium - term pressure on the market is large [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The short - term support is at 2260. The strategy is to wait for the support to break and then look for short - selling opportunities [22]. PVC - **Logic**: In the real - estate downturn cycle, the downstream operating rate of PVC has reached the lowest level in the same period of previous years, and the export demand has weakened. The supply - side operating rate is around the average of previous years, and the fundamentals are bearish [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 4980. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4850 [26]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The supply has tightened due to unexpected domestic unit maintenance and reduced imports. The short - term polyester demand is acceptable, and the inventory is decreasing, providing some short - term fundamental support. The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 4295. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference at 4295 [27]. Plastic - **Logic**: There are many maintenance units in the short term, and the overall operating rate is low. However, there is large - scale unit startup pressure in June and the second half of the year, and the supply increase expectation is high. The medium - term outlook is bearish [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The short - term support is at 7050. The strategy is to wait for the support to break and then look for short - selling opportunities [30].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The external market is strong under the expectation of China-US talks, and the market expects the data in the June USDA report to be basically stable. As it gradually enters the critical period of US soybean planting, the market is more sensitive to weather impacts. The domestic market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The supply pressure in the near - term makes the rebound of the M09 contract lack sustainable momentum. Under the background of the strong external market, it is difficult to short - sell the near - term contract alone. Therefore, it is more appropriate to go long on the far - term contract when the long - term logic of the far - term contract is not falsified [4] - There are multiple factors supporting the far - term contract, including the cost valuation support from the external market after China - US talks, the bullish sentiment in the far - term under the weather - related speculation, and the support from the Brazilian export premium [9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.4%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1746 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.309 [3] Hedging Strategies - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short - sell soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For feed mills with low procurement inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, they can short - sell soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] Market Analysis Bullish Factors - The cost valuation support from the external market after China - US talks is favorable for the far - term contract [9] - The bullish sentiment in the far - term under the weather - related speculation [9] - The support from the Brazilian export premium on the far - term contract price [9] Bearish Factors - The large supply pressure in the second - quarter carry - over and the third quarter will keep the spot basis weak, while the futures market is strong before the weather - related speculation [6] - The estimated soybean arrivals are 11 million tons in the subsequent part of June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the second and third quarters is still abundant, and the situation of China - US talks needs to be monitored in the fourth quarter [6] - In the rapeseed meal market, there is still supply pressure in June, the downstream demand is lower than expected, and it is difficult to reduce inventory. Although there are some supply gaps in the far - term, the rigid demand is limited. With the continuous meetings between China and Canada, the market is weak, and the China - Canada trade relationship should be focused on [6] Price and Spread - The closing prices and daily changes of soybean meal (01, 05, 09) and rapeseed meal (01, 05, 09) contracts, CBOT yellow soybeans, and the offshore RMB are provided. For example, the closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3068, up 8 (0.26%) [7][10] - The price differences between different soybean meal and rapeseed meal contracts, as well as the spot prices, basis, and the difference between soybean and rapeseed meal are presented. For instance, the M01 - 05 spread is 336, up 4 [11] Import Cost and Profit - The import costs and profits of US Gulf soybeans (23% tariff), Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are given. For example, the import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4506.8065 yuan/ton, up 13.117 yuan/ton daily, and the import profit is - 692.2415 yuan/ton, up 13.117 yuan/ton daily [12]

| | | | Millio | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月05日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，棉花现货成交一般,基差稳中偏强。纯棉纱纺企顺价走货，市场信心不足，节后价格暂变化不大。近期下 游开机缓慢走低,成品库存有所增加,压力有所增加,反观棉花现货价格坚挺，优质资源逐渐减少,基差持续偏强,市场对于 后期库存有偏紧的预期。宏观方面，中美谈判情况并不顺利，继续关注后续情况。美棉种植进度偏慢，天 ...

| | | | Million 国特期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月29日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 天然橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，国产棉现货交投一般、主流基差坚挺；纯棉纱市场成交走谈,纺企库存出现累积但仍不高,成品库存有所 增加，下游压价情况增多，淡季的压力有所增加。国内棉花进口延续偏低的情况，2025年4月进口6万吨，同比降28万吨，环比 降1.4万吨；2024/25年度9-4月累计进口86.6万吨，同比降65%。国内3 ...

市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13330元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14453元/吨，较前一日变动-32元/吨，现货基差CF09+1123，较前一日变动-32；3128B棉全国均价14572元/吨， 较前一日变动-23元/吨，现货基差CF09+1242，较前一日变动-23。 农产品日报 | 2025-05-29 原糖持续下跌，郑糖跟随走弱 棉花观点 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部统计，至5月25日全美棉花播种进度52%，较去年同期落后5个百分点，较近五年平均 水平落后4个百分点。其中得州播种进度47%，较去年同期落后1个百分点，较近五年平均进度落后1个百分点，均 处于近年较慢水平。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价横盘整理。宏观方面，中美谈判取得实质性进展，市场情绪明显转好。不过目前出口美国的纺织品 服装实际关税仍高达45%-50%，且24%关税延期90天后关税政策不确定性将再次提升，需持续关注后期宏观动向。 国际方面，USDA下调25/26年度全球棉花产量，上调消费量，期末库存同比持平。不过当前不确定因素较多，后 续平衡表还需要根据各主产国天 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年05月27日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 棉花 | ななな | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 20号胶 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉有所回落，国产棉现货交投一般、主流基差坚挺；纯棉纱市场成交走谈，纺企库存出现累积但仍不高。国内棉花进口 延续偏低的情况, 2025年4月进口6万吨,同比降28万吨,环比降1.4万吨;2025年1-4月累计进口40万吨,同比降71%;2024/25 年度9-4月累计进口86.6万吨，同比降65%。目前看对于下游的订单好 ...