Core Viewpoint - The overall performance recovery is slowing down, with mid-cap growth stocks showing outstanding growth. The expansion of the AI trend and manufacturing overseas is expected to drive continued capacity cycle expansion, maintaining a differentiated structure of cyclical growth [1][2]. Group 1: Overall Performance - In H1 2025, the net profit of the entire A-share non-financial sector increased by 1.59% year-on-year, with revenue growth at 0.66%, indicating strong resilience despite rising operating costs leading to a narrowing of gross profit growth [2]. - The performance growth is differentiated across sectors, with the main board, ChiNext, and North Exchange showing a slowdown, while the growth of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board rebounded significantly [2]. - Mid-cap stocks outperformed in growth, while large-cap stocks showed resilience, and small-cap stocks experienced a noticeable decline [2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The technology growth sector, including optical electronics, semiconductors, and communication equipment, continued to show high prosperity driven by overseas AI investments and domestic substitution demand [3]. - The cyclical sector faced pressure, but precious metals and minor metals still grew rapidly due to rising expectations of overseas interest rate cuts and tight supply [3]. - Essential consumption faced general pressure, but sectors like breeding, feed, and animal health showed significant growth due to capacity reduction and the expansion of the pet economy [3]. Group 3: Capacity Operation - In Q2 2025, traditional cyclical resources and equipment manufacturing industries are experiencing strong capacity decommissioning intentions, while emerging industries and new materials are showing expansion characteristics [4]. - The capacity utilization rate in emerging technology hardware and some consumer industries remains high, with marginal improvements observed [4]. - The capacity cycle is entering an expansion phase, particularly in emerging technology industries, new consumption, and certain cyclical materials [4].

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on low-position elastic sectors during the mid-bull market phase, suggesting that these sectors may experience significant rebounds due to their low valuations, low holdings, and low growth rates [3][14]. - The report identifies a shift in market styles, indicating that while the TMT sector has led the recent market rally, there is potential for growth in previously underperforming sectors as economic conditions improve and policies shift [3][14]. Market Style Discussion - Recent market performance shows that the TMT sector has outperformed, driven by strong fundamentals in AI investments, which are on an upward trajectory globally [3][13]. - The report suggests that mid-bull market sectors are likely to expand, and it is advisable to pay attention to low-position sectors that may benefit from style shifts, particularly those with improving policies or fundamentals [14][15]. - Historical data indicates that the style of leading sectors during the mid-bull market often differs from that of the early bull market, with sectors that performed well initially not necessarily maintaining their momentum [16][18]. Sector Recommendations - Non-bank financials are highlighted as a sector with high certainty of performance improvement and still low valuations [15]. - The military and non-ferrous metals sectors are recommended due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and limited impact from macroeconomic changes [15]. - The media sector is noted for its favorable policy environment and relatively high valuation attractiveness compared to other AI sub-sectors [15]. - Cyclical sectors such as steel, construction materials, and chemicals are expected to benefit from supply-side policies and potential demand-side support, with low valuations making them attractive [15][24]. Style and Sector Analysis - The report discusses the potential for style shifts in the market, particularly as low-valuation sectors may see increased interest from institutional investors due to low holdings and the anticipated shift in market focus [21][22]. - The analysis indicates that sectors currently at low valuations, low holdings, and low growth rates include construction decoration, petroleum and petrochemicals, and real estate, which may present opportunities for recovery [23][24]. Seasonal Trends - The report notes that September typically shows weak seasonal trends for market styles, with a higher probability of style shifts occurring in Q4 [25][26]. - Historical data suggests that while small-cap growth has dominated in August, the likelihood of value styles gaining traction increases as the year progresses into the fourth quarter [26].

Group 1: Overall Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a 5.50% increase in Q2 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, driven by rising prices of industrial and precious metals, which boosted company performance [2] - The precious metals segment reported revenues of 126.58 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.15%, with net profit reaching 6.86 billion yuan, up 41.93% [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - The increase in gold and silver prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion following the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and ongoing global central bank gold purchases, with expectations for continued price strength [3] - The market anticipates sustained gold price increases due to strong expectations for interest rate cuts following signals from Powell in August [3] Group 3: Copper Sector - The copper sector saw revenues of 427.52 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.41%, with net profit at 22.97 billion yuan, up 18.19% [2] - The rebound in copper prices is driven by supply shortages and increased demand from the electrical sector, particularly in China's new energy field [2] Group 4: Aluminum Sector - The aluminum sector reported revenues of 113.71 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.29%, with net profit at 9.60 billion yuan, up 11.40% [2] - The resilience of aluminum prices is supported by strong fundamentals and a decrease in coal prices, leading to increased profit margins [2] Group 5: Rare Earth and Magnetic Materials - The rare earth sector experienced a revenue increase of 3.94% in Q2 2025, with net profit rising by 14.57% [3] - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 432,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.56% increase, driven by price hikes and supply chain improvements [3] Group 6: Small Metals - The small metals sector saw a revenue increase of 20.46% in Q2 2025, with net profit rising by 13.99% [4] - Prices for molybdenum, tungsten, antimony, and tin increased by 2.32%, 10.46%, 32.07%, and 1.12% respectively, indicating a positive price trend [4] Group 7: Lithium and Nickel-Cobalt Sectors - The lithium sector faced pressure with revenues of 25 billion yuan in Q2 2025, down 6.2% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 21% [4] - The nickel-cobalt sector reported revenues of 31.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%, with net profit at 2.65 billion yuan, up 16% [4] Group 8: New Materials - The new materials sector showed revenue growth of 12.53% in Q2 2025, with net profit increasing by 25.86% [5] - The growth is primarily driven by technological innovation and domestic substitution trends [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view. The range of trend strength is from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [2]. 2. Core View - Weekend group significantly reduced supply, and the spot price rebounded as expected. In August, the planned slaughter volume of large farms increased, and small farmers were forced to hold back pigs. There is still supply pressure in September. From September to October, the production cycle and inventory cycle resonate, and it's advisable to enter the 11 - 1 reverse spread. The enthusiasm for purchasing piglets declined, and the price drop accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward movement of the far - end price center, and stop - loss and take - profit should be set. The short - term support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The price of Henan spot is 13,780 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; Sichuan spot is 13,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; Guangdong spot is 14,740 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the pig 2511 contract is 13,555 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the pig 2601 contract is 13,870 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton year - on - year; the pig 2603 contract is 13,135 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the pig 2511 contract is 22,855 lots, down 7,687 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 73,636 lots, down 1,327 lots from the previous day; the pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 12,385 lots, down 1,050 lots, and an open interest of 48,313 lots, up 180 lots; the pig 2603 contract has a trading volume of 3,149 lots, down 941 lots, and an open interest of 31,772 lots, up 257 lots [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the pig 2511 contract is 225 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the pig 2601 contract is - 90 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the pig 2603 contract is 645 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 11 - 1 spread is - 315 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 1 - 3 spread is 735 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton year - on - year [1].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector's transaction volume has exceeded 40%, indicating strong market interest but not necessarily signaling a peak [1][2] - The overall A-share market is expected to enter an active replenishment cycle by the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by improving domestic fundamentals and liquidity [1][4] Financial Performance - In the 2025 mid-year report, non-financial equity revenue decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 2.3%, showing a decline compared to the first quarter [1][5] - The return on equity (ROE) for the entire A-share non-financial sector is expected to stabilize in the fourth quarter after a slowdown in its decline [1][5] Market Dynamics - The current market shows high congestion in components, semiconductors, and communication devices, while software, gaming, and fintech applications are less congested [3] - The non-financial industry prosperity index has risen for three consecutive months, indicating a potential turning point in the revenue cycle [3][10] Inventory and Capacity Cycles - Most sectors are experiencing a dual decline in revenue and inventory growth, reflecting a deepening active destocking phase [6] - The construction and consumption sectors have been in active destocking for five consecutive quarters, while the export chain and TMT sectors remain in a high active replenishment state [6][7] Investment Opportunities - Industries such as chemicals and steel, which have seen a decline in revenue but an increase in advance payments, are expected to experience a revenue growth turning point in the next two quarters [8] - The computer, optical, and electrical engineering sectors are anticipated to continue in a state of dual improvement in supply and demand [8] Sector-Specific Insights - The AI industry is showing positive trends, with significant capital expenditure and production increases in related sectors such as communication equipment and storage devices [11][12] - The engineering machinery sector is recovering, with increased sales and operational hours observed in the third quarter [18] Consumer Trends - Consumer goods sectors, including beer, food, and dairy products, are showing signs of recovery, closely linked to restaurant data [19] - The real estate market is experiencing mixed signals, with new home sales declining year-on-year but showing signs of stabilization in first-tier cities [20] Recommendations - Short-term investment strategies should focus on strong sectors such as AI, pharmaceuticals, and military-related industries, while also considering undervalued consumer and non-bank financial sectors benefiting from currency appreciation [23][24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the week from August 25 - 31, the spot market for live pigs showed weak and volatile prices. The supply was relatively loose, and the demand led to an increase in slaughter volume. The futures market also had a weak performance, and the basis structure switched. Looking ahead to September 1 - 7, the spot price of live pigs will run weakly, with both supply and demand increasing but limited rebound space. For the futures market, different contract opportunities and price ranges are suggested [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Market Review (8.25 - 8.31) - **Spot Market**: The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 31.35 yuan/kg (last week: 33.1 yuan/kg), the live pig price in Henan was 13.78 yuan/kg (unchanged from last week), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1600 yuan/head (last week: 1611 yuan/head). The supply was relatively loose, and the demand led to an increase in slaughter volume, with some speculative demand for warehousing and secondary fattening starting. The average slaughter weight nationwide was 123.6KG (last week: 123.8KG), a 0.16% decrease [1]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract of live pig futures had a high of 13875 yuan/ton, a low of 13010 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13015 yuan/ton (last week: 13760 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 765 yuan/ton (last week: 20 yuan/ton) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (9.1 - 9.7) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will run weakly. In August, the spot price was lower than expected. From the supply side, the supply of standard pigs will increase significantly from August, and the supply pressure in September is also large. From the demand side, there is a seasonal demand increase in September, but overall, the rebound space in September is limited [3]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the LH2601 contract on August 29 was 13870 yuan/ton. It is expected that the basis structure of the November contract will change to a contango structure in advance. The November contract is under pressure, and attention can be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread. The price of piglets is expected to continue to fall in September, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of purchased - for - fattening pigs after March, and attention can be paid to the hedging opportunities of the March and May contracts. The short - term support level of the LH2601 contract is 13500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4]. Other Data - **Basis and Spread**: This week's basis was 765 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 - LH2601 spread was - 315 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply Data**: This week's average weight was 123.6KG (last week: 123.8KG). In June, the pork production was 5.295 billion tons, a 4.3% month - on - month increase; in July, the pork import was 8.83 million tons, a 0.18% month - on - month decrease [12].

Core Viewpoint - The suspension of the Ningde Times' Jiangxiawo mica mine has led to a significant increase in lithium carbonate futures, with the main contract reaching a price of 81,000 yuan/ton, marking an 8% rise and a new six-month high [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The Jiangxiawo mica mine, which has a substantial production capacity, is expected to create a supply gap of several thousand tons per month, leading to a potential shortage of lithium carbonate in the third quarter [1][3]. - Following the news of the mine's suspension, the market experienced a surge in sentiment, with futures for polysilicon and industrial silicon also rising significantly, indicating a broader market impact [1][10]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current supply situation is exacerbated by the suspension of the Jiangxiawo mine, which is projected to reduce lithium carbonate supply by over 20,000 tons, coinciding with a seasonal increase in demand from the power battery and energy storage sectors [7][8]. - The lithium carbonate spot prices are reported at 71,900 yuan/ton for battery-grade and 69,800 yuan/ton for industrial-grade, reflecting the tightening supply conditions [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the lithium carbonate market will see prices rise to a range of 84,000 to 90,000 yuan/ton in the near term due to the combination of reduced supply and increasing demand [7][8]. - The long-term outlook suggests that while there is significant potential for lithium resource supply, the price increase may face pressure from the availability of new lithium mining projects [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4] Core Views - The pig farming sector is expected to enter a phase of supply and demand balance in August, with a positive outlook for pig prices as the industry approaches a long-term profitability uptrend [3] - The report highlights the seasonal decrease in pig output, with a total of 15.27 million pigs slaughtered by 13 listed companies in July, reflecting a 6.15% decrease month-on-month but a 25.12% increase year-on-year [2][13] - The average price of live pigs has shown a downward trend, with the national average price on August 8 being 13.71 yuan/kg, a 4.33% decrease week-on-week [1][29] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The total number of pigs slaughtered in July was approximately 15.27 million, with a month-on-month decrease of 6.15% and a year-on-year increase of 25.12% [2][13] - The average price of live pigs in July was 14-15 yuan/kg, with a slight increase in the overall monthly average price [2][14] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has continued to decline, with an average of 124.16 kg in July, down 0.9 kg from the previous month [17][29] Price Trends - The average price of piglets was 30.4 yuan/kg, down 1.65% week-on-week, while the average price of pork was 20.46 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 26% [28][29] - The report notes that the price of white feather broiler chickens has increased to 7.14 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week rise of 4.54% [38] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the pig farming sector, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, as they are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in pig prices [3] - It also suggests monitoring companies in the feed and animal health sectors, such as Haida Group and Reap Bio, due to the expected increase in demand driven by rising pig stocks [3]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs report focuses on the current state and trends of China's capacity cycle in seven key manufacturing industries, indicating that despite short-term policy stimuli, the core issue of overcapacity remains unchanged, and the cyclical turning point has been delayed [1][2][24] Industry Overview - Five out of the seven key industries still have capacity exceeding global demand, with structural issues such as dispersed supply and flattening cost curves persisting [1][2][24] - Significant domestic demand stimulus policies, such as trade-in programs, have temporarily supported tail-end companies, with electric vehicles and air conditioning sectors seeing demand boosts of 16% for 2025 [1][32] Capacity Cycle and Turning Points - The "Three Principles" framework (cash profit margins, capital expenditure adjustments, demand outlook) suggests that most industries are further from their cyclical bottoms, leading to a delayed turning point and potential negative cyclical risks in the future [1][34] - The photovoltaic industry is closest to a turning point but still requires 6 to 12 months for a demand shift, while the electric vehicle sector faces weak profits and steep cost curves, necessitating market consolidation [1][34] Supply Structure and Consolidation Potential - Most industries remain fragmented, and the flattening cost curves hinder consolidation efforts, with the cash profit margin gap between leading and trailing firms narrowing [2][31] - Chinese companies are accelerating overseas capacity expansion to mitigate trade friction, with projections indicating that by 2028, overseas capacity could account for 0.5% to 14% of total Chinese capacity [2][27] Demand Dynamics - Demand front-loading effects from policy stimuli are significant, with the photovoltaic sector experiencing a "rush to install" and electric vehicle inventory replenishment driving short-term industry prosperity, though sustainability is questionable [2][30] - If demand stimulation declines post-2026, some industries may revert to the imbalanced levels seen in 2023-24 [2][24] Future Outlook - The rebalancing process of China's manufacturing capacity cycle is delayed due to policy interventions, with industry consolidation reliant on external factors such as global demand expansion and supply-side reforms [2][24] - Leading firms' advantages in cost control and market share, along with deepening overseas capacity layouts, will be critical variables influencing future industry dynamics [2][24]

值得注意的是，私募机构对后市普遍持积极乐观态度。有私募分析，随着"反内卷"政策逐步深化， 上市公司的产能周期已临近尾声，这意味着盈利下行周期即将终结。 （责任编辑：康博） 人民财讯7月4日电，作为股市风向标，私募基金的调研动向往往揭示资金偏好，备受行业关注。随 着股市持续回暖，私募基金近期开启新一轮密集调研。 私募排排网最新数据显示，6月共有751家私募证券管理人调研387家A股上市公司，合计达1769 次。其中，电子、医药生物两大行业备受私募青睐，合计被调研541次，占比逾三成。迈威生物当月获 得私募扎堆调研51次，成为机构眼中的"香饽饽"，这也与当下创新药的火爆紧密相连。 ...