截至12月19日，共有106家公司在香港交易所上市，融资总额达到2746亿港元，其中四家公司更跻身2025年全球十大新股之列。在香港交易所上市的公司 通过再融资筹集了660亿美元，彰显香港资本市场的活力和深度。 转自：新华财经 新华财经香港12月29日电（记者林迎楠）2025年收官之际回看，在全球主要市场波动加剧、地缘政治与货币政策不确定性并存的背景下，港股并未复制此 前"估值塌陷—情绪低迷"的单边曲线，而是呈现出资金回流、板块轮动与制度效应逐步显现的复杂图景。 市场观点认为，港股市场表现出结构性上涨与阶段性调整并存的特征，资金流、IPO活跃度和政策环境是推动涨势的核心动力，而宏观不确定性与外部风 险则是短期波动的主因。 IPO回暖与制度效应显现 作为国际金融中心的重要组成部分，一级市场的变化为2025年的港股注入新变量。 2025年港股IPO节奏明显回暖，科技、先进制造、生物医药等领域的新股占比提升。与前些年"数量恢复但质量分化"不同，2025年市场对上市企业的筛选 标准也更为严格。 港交所数据显示，2025年，香港新股市场融资额位居全球第一，融资额较去年明显上升，平均每日成交额更创下历史新高。现货市场20 ...

本文来源：时代财经 作者：何秀兰 港股走强的背后，是资金、政策与制度的三重红利共振。南向资金作为 "压舱石"，年内净流入超 1.3 万亿元；制度层面，港交所于5月推出 "科企专线"，允许硬科技与生物科技企业保密递表，叠加18C章上市通道高效落地，制度红利推动港股IPO市场强势回暖。截至12月29日，港 交所年内IPO合计募资近2800亿港元，同比增长224.38%，助推港交所重回全球交易所募资榜首。 盘古智库高级研究员余丰慧向时代财经表示，2025年港股估值修复的核心驱动力主要来源于资金宽松、国内经济复苏预期增强以及政策支持。 特别是南向资金的持续流入，加上人民币汇率稳定，增强了市场信心。此外，新能源汽车、人工智能等产业的发展也促进了相关板块的业绩和 估值扩张。 图源：图虫创意 核心指数领涨全球，资金面共振推动港股复苏 2025年，港股核心指数集体爆发，全年表现领跑全球主要资本市场。 从具体表现来看，截至12月29日收盘，恒生指数从年初约19600点攀升至25635点，全年涨幅近28%；恒生科技指数同步走高，涨幅近23%；恒 生国企指数全年涨幅近22%，反映出央企国企板块的估值重塑成效。这一表现不仅创下港股五 ...

1.监管与交易层面：政策降温 + 资金踩踏 交易所风险管控：广期所 12 月 23 日上调铂钯涨跌停板与保证金，CME 于 12 月 29 日跟进上调金属期 货保证金，直接压缩杠杆资金规模，引发多头主动减仓。 3.资金行为：获利了结主导短期走势 ETF 与期货多头抛售：铂金价格年内涨幅一度超 50%，机构与 ETF 投资人在高位集中获利了结，进一 步加剧下跌动量。 投机资金退潮：前期资金炒作 "估值修复"，推动价格脱离基本面，一旦预期逆转，投机盘快速出逃引 发连锁反应。。 期货公司观点 内外盘时间错位与价差收敛：圣诞假期导致外盘休市、内盘独自波动，内外价差一度接近 20%，套利 资金入场卖空内盘、买入外盘，加速内盘价格回调。 多头集中止损：前期价格暴涨吸引大量投机资金，关键支撑位破位后触发程序化交易与 "踩踏式抛 售"，放大跌幅。 2.基本面：需求疲软 + 供需预期反转 工业需求走弱：汽车催化器是铂金最大需求端(占比 40%+)，2025 年三季度全球燃油车销量同比下滑 5%，新能源汽车替代加速，单台催化器用铂量因技术升级持续下降，需求增量不及预期。 远期供需再平衡：WPIC 预测 2026 年铂金市场或出现 ...

FY26H1业绩 FY26H1(截至2025年9月30日)，六福集团业绩超预期。期内实现收入68.4亿港元(同比+25.6%)，归母净 利润6.2亿港元(同比+42.5%)，毛利率同比提升2个百分点至34.7%，达历史新高。从季度表现来看，业 绩持续改善，恢复动能强劲。FY26Q1集团零售值同比增长13%，同店销售上升5%;FY26Q2零售值进一 步提速，同比增长18%，同店销售增速升至10%。 产品端：公司持续推进高毛利产品占比，定价类产品表现突出，成为结构优化引擎 FY26H1黄金及铂金类收入40.96亿港元，同比增长11.0%占比达到64.3%，毛利率增加2.8%提升至30.3%; 定价首饰收入22.76亿港元，同比增长67.9%，占比35.7%。分季度看，FY26Q1内地自营定价黄金同店 +69%，定价首饰同店+16%;港澳定价黄金+74%，定价首饰+19%。FY26Q2内地自营定价黄金同店 +49%，定价首饰+8%;港澳定价黄金+68%，定价首饰+27%。定价黄金产品的销售占比在Q1提升至 16%-17%，结构性利好持续释放。 智通财经APP获悉，东北证券发布研报称，短期看，六福集团(00590)期 ...

方正中期期货有色与贵金属研究员梁海宽：短期来看，全球白银库存紧张的矛盾无法从根本上缓解，而 且市场对这一矛盾的共识正在不断被强化。全球白银市场已连续5年供不应求，铂金、钯金近期的上涨 主要是由于自身估值修复的驱动，由于自身体量较小，同时叠加自身供给端偏紧，铂金、钯金短期价格 弹性更大。 本周贵金属价格频频创出新高，引领了年末行情。当地时间26日，是美国传统节假日后的首个交易日， 贵金属黄金、白银、铂金再度迎来全线大涨，再次刷新历史纪录。在美元持续走软的背景下，黄金市场 本周受到地缘政治风险升温的支撑，持续保持强劲走势。近期，美国针对委内瑞拉的石油制裁和对该国 石油贸易封锁升级等诸多不确定性因素，显著提升黄金的避险吸引力。 来源：央视财经 0:00 黄金流动性外溢效应、美元走软以及供应紧张等因素还带动铂金、钯金等贵金属价格飙升。铂金期货价 格本周飙升至历史新高，首次突破每盎司2400美元大关，全周涨幅超22%，钯金期价上涨约13%，达到 2023.3美元/盎司，创三年多来的最高水平。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are supported by the cost side but constrained by weakening demand and potential tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore has both upward and downward drivers and is expected to trade in a range, with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the coke valuation repair drive may weaken [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside and downside space [48] - With the strengthening expectation of new soda ash capacity coming online, the market is in surplus, and prices are under pressure [62] - Some glass production lines are expected to cold repair before the Spring Festival, affecting long - term pricing, and the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested [85] Summary by Categories Steel Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3097, 3118, and 3167 respectively; hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3288, 3283, and 3296 respectively [4] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3318 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton [8][10] Ratios - The ratios of 01, 05, and 10 rebar to 01, 05, and 09 iron ore were all 4; to 01, 05, and 09 coke were all 2 on December 26, 2025 [18] Iron Ore Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 801.5, 783, and 761 respectively [22] Fundamentals - On December 26, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 226.58 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 15858.66 tons [25] Coking Coal and Coke Futures Spreads - On December 26, 2025, the spreads of coking coal 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 were 174, - 80, and - 94 respectively; for coke were 224.5, - 76.5, and - 148 respectively [35] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [38] Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On December 26, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 72, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton [49] Silicon Manganese - On December 26, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 100, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5590 yuan/ton [50] Soda Ash Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1200, 1258, and 1121 respectively [63] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, and the light - soda market price was 1250 yuan/ton [63] Glass Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1057, 1160, and 936 respectively [86] Spot Sales - On December 25, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 102, and in Hubei was 97 [87]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. The overall direction of monetary easing and ongoing contradictions in the mining end continue to support non - ferrous metals. However, due to factors such as capital outflows during Christmas, the sector experiences a round of strong consolidation. There are differences in fundamentals among non - ferrous metals, leading to a differentiation in strength. It is recommended to focus on opportunities where macro and micro factors resonate [12]. - Copper prices are expected to have an upward - moving central value in the future, driven by its financial attributes, valuation repair, and the global inventory structural contradiction. It is advisable to gradually go long on Shanghai Copper on dips [3]. - Zinc is in an oscillatory state. As long as the lower support level holds, one can go long on dips [4]. - For the aluminum industry chain, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or long - biased approach. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is suggested [5]. - Tin is recommended to be on the sidelines, and attention should be paid to the trends of other non - ferrous metals and policy regulations [6]. - Lead shows a short - term upward trend, and one can go long on dips [8]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a short - term bullish state, but attention should be paid to macro - liquidity changes and the implementation of Indonesian policies [9]. Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. Monetary easing continues, and contradictions in the mining end support the sector. Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market weakens the US dollar, which is beneficial for non - ferrous metals. However, the appreciation of the RMB may lead to relatively stronger performance in the external market. During Christmas, capital outflows increase volatility, and non - ferrous metals experience a round of strong consolidation. The US economic data shows mixed performance, and China's economic data such as power consumption is positive. The non - ferrous metals sector has adjusted but moved away from lows, with internal differentiation in strength. Copper, with its tight supply - demand situation, drives the sector upward. As weak - performing varieties make up for losses, the sector may experience profit - taking and increased volatility. Attention should be paid to spot - market feedback [12]. - **This Week's Focus**: This week, the US will release a large amount of economic data, with the focus on the third - quarter real GDP on December 23. China will release the November industrial enterprise profit data on December 27. The Christmas holiday leads to market closures in the UK and the US [13]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy** - **Copper**: Driven by factors such as the high - than - expected US GDP and inflation, and the global inventory structural contradiction, copper prices are expected to rise. It is advisable to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying near - month slightly out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Zinc**: With a relatively warm macro environment and a slowdown in the decline of processing fees, zinc is in an oscillatory recovery state. It can be bought on dips as long as the support level holds, with an upper pressure range of 23,500 - 23,600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips, with an upper pressure range of 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 21,000 - 21,300 yuan/ton. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is recommended, with an upper pressure range of 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton. For recycled aluminum alloy, a wait - and - see or long - biased approach is suggested, with an upper pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: Affected by sector adjustment, policy利空, and nickel market resonance, it is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 350,000 - 355,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 310,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [6][7]. - **Lead**: With a weak US dollar and cost support, lead prices are rising. It is advisable to go long in the short term, with a lower support range of 16,700 - 16,800 yuan/ton and an upper pressure range of 17,200 - 17,300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Affected by the expected reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and potential policy changes, nickel and stainless steel are short - term bullish. For nickel, the upper pressure range is 128,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 123,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, the upper pressure range is 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton [9]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [17]. Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report presents the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, lead, copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum alloy, aluminum, industrial silicon, gold, zinc, alumina, tin, and nickel [19]. Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [20][22]. Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides relevant charts for each non - ferrous metal in the industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [25][28][30] Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals arbitrage, including the Shanghai - London ratio changes, basis spreads, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [56][57][59] Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals options, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, open interest, and other aspects of copper, zinc, and aluminum [74][76][79]

【财经日历】 荣耀WIN系列新品发布会 交易提示：港股休市 机构认为，当前市场正处于一轮估值修复与资产轮动驱动的行情。 ►►国家新闻出版署公布2025年12月份国产网络游戏审批信息，12月共144款游戏获批。 ►►据证券时报，市场消息称，12月25日下午，四家头部硅片企业联合大幅上调报价，其中183N硅片报价1.4元/片、210RN报价1.5元/片、210N报价1.7元/ 片，平均涨幅达到12%。记者从多家硅片厂商人士处证实了上调报价的信息，业内普遍反馈，本次硅片涨价主要是上游硅料涨幅较大所致。 ►►国家烟草专卖局公开征求《国家烟草专卖局关于落实电子烟产业政策 进一步推动供需动态平衡的通知（征求意见稿）》意见。其中提出，加强电子烟 产能调控。坚持以市场需求为导向推进电子烟产业供给侧结构性改革，统筹企业装备水平、经营情况及产业态势，按照"公平公开、分类施策、稳妥有序"的 原则，实施电子烟核定产能管理。原则上，核定的电子烟产能应保持基本稳定，电子烟相关生产企业应在核定产能内开展生产经营，严禁超核定产能开展生 产经营，需要调整的应申请重新核定产能并履行许可证办理程序。允许合法合规经营、遵守产业政策和监管政策规定的电 ...

研究员：张程航 低估值+强增长，吉利为明年整车beta 修复行情首选标的之一。受汽车补贴政策退坡预期影响，近半年 来整车行情整体表现较弱。目前，政策退坡预期已基本反映至整车行业估值，明年存在估值修复的可能 性。而在一线车企中，吉利销量、利润增幅居前，而对应25-26 年PE 仅8.8、6.3 倍，显著突破公司以及 行业近年估值下限。当前行业悲观预期压制公司估值，使其与基本面背离，反是较好投资时机，建议底 部布局。 投资建议：根据公司近期销量以及极氪私有化调整，我们将公司2025-27E 归母净利预测由178 亿、240 亿、272 亿元上调至186 亿、263 亿、316 亿元，对应PE 8.8 倍、6.3 倍、5.2 倍。参考公司历史估值水 平，综合考虑公司基本面以及行业整体趋势，给予公司2026 年10 倍PE，对应目标价27.01 港元，空间 60%，维持"强推"评级。 风险提示：行业景气度低于预期、新车型销售低于预期、价格竞争强度高于预期等。 机构：华创证券 事项： 12 月22 日，吉利汽车发布公告，宣布正式完成对极氪的私有化及合并事项的交易，极氪成为吉利汽车 的全资附属公司，并于纽交所退市。此前1 ...

能够在存量市场中抓住结构性机遇的行业通常具备两大条件：1)精准解决需求痛点，如应对老龄化社会 的健康焦虑和收入低预期下的性价比需求；2)行业本身渗透率处于低位，具备从传统行业吸纳份额的空 间。从具体行业发展来看，该行观察到日本彼时性价比平替的快速起势，以及传统行业的专业化、细分 化发展，带动细分品类渗透率提升。 投资策略：重视ROA企稳的调整尾声、复苏起点板块，首先这些板块可能存在估值修复的机会，其次 在这类板块中寻找"价"或"量"仍景气的细分赛道，该行认为价仍是最优选逻辑，量是次选。 智通财经APP获悉，华源证券发布研报称，不同的消费板块在复苏节奏上既有差异又有共性，ROA是消 费企业经营复苏前瞻指标。针对不同的细分板块来看，该行认为，应重视ROA企稳的调整尾声、复苏 起点板块，首先这些板块可能存在估值修复的机会。其次在这类板块中寻找"价"或"量"仍景气的细分赛 道，该行认为价仍是最优选逻辑，量是次选。 价的逻辑上，CPI上行或将成为渗透率较高的传统行业的"宏大叙事"，有望带动板块估值修复，或仍是 承接增量资金尤其是"红利+"资金的主要板块。量的逻辑选择性价比消费中，供应链效率高者获得量 增；渗透率低的行业 ...