Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The fundamentals of natural rubber are expected to weaken. Short positions above 14,000 should be held. Attention should be paid to the raw material supply in each production area and the changes in US tariffs [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex in Shanghai decreased by 0.36%, and the full - latex basis decreased by 216.67%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged. The price of cup - shaped rubber decreased by 0.63%, while the price of glue remained unchanged. The price of raw materials in Hainan increased by 1.59% [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 50.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.19% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production in Thailand increased by 157.52%, the production in Indonesia increased by 3.19%, the production in India increased by 5.07%, and the production in China increased significantly. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires decreased, the domestic tire production decreased slightly, the tire export volume increased by 7.72%, and the natural rubber import volume decreased by 13.35% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory increased by 2.40%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 7.67%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao decreased [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The log market is expected to enter a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The 2509 log contract closed at 785.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 1.5 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of major deliverable standards remained unchanged [3]. - **Supply**: The monthly port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 13.20%, and the number of departing ships decreased by 7.94% [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 4, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 3.23 million cubic meters, a decrease of 130,000 cubic meters from the previous week [3]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand increased by 0.12 million cubic meters. As of July 4, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 6.69 million cubic meters [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price is rising. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but in the long term, the oversupply situation may intensify [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained mostly unchanged, and the basis decreased [4]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 350.00%, the 2508 - 2509 spread remained unchanged, the 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 20.00%, and the 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 66.67% [4]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 6.50%, the production in Xinjiang increased by 1.90%, the production in Yunnan increased by 146.26%, and the production in Sichuan increased by 73.22%. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 13.75%, and the production of polysilicon increased by 5.10%. The export volume of industrial silicon in May decreased by 8.03% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 13.19%, the social inventory increased by 1.85%, the non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 3.98%, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.53% [4]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The polysilicon futures price has risen, but the fundamentals remain weak. Although the policy expectation drives the price up, the downstream demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the terminal demand and absorption [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 8.33%, the average price of N - type granular silicon increased by 7.35%, and the basis of N - type materials increased by 219.42% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads**: The PS2506 contract increased by 5.12%. Some inter - monthly spreads changed significantly [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of polysilicon increased by 1.69%, the monthly production in June increased by 5.10%. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed in May, and the silicon wafer production decreased in the week and increased slightly in June [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.74%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 4.43% [5]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The soda ash market is in an oversupply situation, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended. The glass market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and observation is recommended [6]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices in North, East, Central, and South China remained unchanged. The 2505 and 2509 glass contracts increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 8.11% [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices in North, East, Central, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The 2505 and 2509 soda ash contracts increased by 0.81%, and the 05 basis decreased by 8.77% [6]. - **Supply**: The soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.08%, the weekly production decreased by 1.07%, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 4.02% [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.41%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 17.99% [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rates of new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate changed, with the completion area and sales area showing improvement [6].

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a downturn due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with prices falling by 2.03% to 263,520 yuan/ton [1] - Tin ore supply remains tight, with smelter operating rates at low levels, and downstream demand entering a seasonal lull, leading to cautious procurement by enterprises and a sluggish spot market [1] - Domestic social inventory continues to rise, putting pressure on tin prices, while the operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi has slightly increased to 53.97% [1] Group 2 - Downstream demand is weak, particularly in the photovoltaic and electronics sectors, with a decline in orders and production rates in East China and South China [2] - The high tin prices are suppressing downstream purchasing, with companies primarily maintaining just-in-time procurement [2] - Despite the weak demand, there is no significant pressure on the supply side, as tin ore supply shortages persist and smelter production is declining, leading to a potential high-level fluctuation in tin prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current real estate market is still in the process of bottom - building, with economic data in May slightly falling short of expectations and PMI data in June showing a slight improvement. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices may have fully reflected various negative factors. The iron ore market has a relatively high supply of global shipments, and the decline in port inventory has slowed down, putting pressure on futures prices. [2][5] - Technically, the steel futures price maintains a slightly stronger oscillating trend, with strong resistance expected near the 60 - day moving average. The iron ore futures price is in a large - range oscillating pattern, with a long - term downward trend and short - term weak oscillation. [2][5] Summary by Directory 1. Thread Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Environment**: The central bank suggests strengthening monetary policy regulation, and the expectation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year has intensified. From January to June, the total sales of top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 11.8% year - on - year, and the decline was larger than last month. [2] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, the production of thread steel increased, factory inventory rebounded, social inventory continued to decline, and total inventory decreased. Apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory may rise slightly. [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with an oscillating mindset. Short - term long positions can be taken after the price stabilizes during a correction, and do not chase the rise. [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract was 3003 yuan/ton, up 0.87% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3136 yuan/ton, up 1.19% from last week. [2] - **Basis and Spread**: The main basis of thread steel was 117 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; the main basis of hot - rolled coil was 64 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day. [2] - **Production and Inventory**: The production of national building material steel mills' thread steel was 217.84 tons, up 2.67% from last week; the social inventory of thread steel was 363.4 tons, down 1.45% from last week. [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Currently, the profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the molten iron output is expected to decline further. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The decline in port inventory has slowed down, and the proportion of trading ore inventory is relatively high, putting pressure on futures prices. [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Short - term long positions can be taken after the price correction, and do not chase the rise or kill the fall. [5] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 708.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.98% from the previous day and up 0.78% from last week. [5] - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of DCE iron ore futures was 24 yuan/dry ton, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day. [5] - **Supply and Inventory**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1730.6 tons, down 8.14% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 776.7 tons, down 9.52% from last week. Port inventory totaled 13930.23 tons, up 0.26% from last week. [5] 3. Industry News - On July 1, Mysteel statistics showed that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14465.77 tons, a decrease of 28.74 tons from last Monday. Except for the southern and river - side regions, the inventory of imported iron ore at ports in other regions decreased compared with last Monday. [8] - Satellite data showed that from June 23 to June 29, 2024, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1238.4 tons, a decrease of 18.8 tons from the previous period, and the inventory was at a relatively low level since the second quarter. [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The real - estate market is still in the process of bottom - building, and the overall economic data in May was slightly below expectations. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price may have fully reflected the negative factors. The futures price of steel products maintains a narrow - range shock, and there may be a second bottom - probing in the short term [2]. - For iron ore, the steel mill's profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the molten iron output is expected to decline. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the port inventory decline rate is slowing down, putting pressure on the futures price. The long - term trend of the futures price is downward, and it is weak in the short - term shock [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Environment**: The central bank's suggestion to strengthen monetary policy regulation has strengthened the expectation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, but it has little impact on the market. The real - estate market is still bottom - building, with the total sales of top 100 real - estate enterprises from January to June down 11.8% year - on - year, and the decline has widened compared with last month. The economic data in May was slightly below expectations [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of threaded steel increased, the factory inventory rebounded, the social inventory continued to decline, and the total inventory decreased. The apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand will weaken further, and inventory will rise slightly [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with a shock mindset. Short - term long positions can be taken after the callback stabilizes, and do not chase the rise [2]. - **Data**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 2997 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day and 0.07% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3123 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous day and 0.35% from last week. Other data such as basis, spread, and various prices are also provided in detail [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and the molten iron output of 247 steel mills last week exceeded 2.423 million tons, but it is expected to decline further with the end of the consumption peak and production restrictions. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline rate is slowing down, and the proportion of trade ore inventory is high, putting pressure on the futures price [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, short - term long positions can be taken after the callback, and do not chase the rise or kill the fall [5]. - **Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 716.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.92% from last week. Data on overseas shipments, sea freight, inventory, and various prices are also provided [5]. 3.3. Industry News - In June, the PMI of the steel industry was 45.9%, down 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, and it is expected that in July, the demand will be under pressure and the steel price will continue to fluctuate at a low level [7]. - Since July 1, 2025, anti - dumping duties of 20.2% - 103.1% will continue to be imposed on imported stainless steel billets and stainless steel hot - rolled coils from the EU, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for 5 years [7]. - From January to May 2025, China's steel exports are still at a high level, and the future trend is uncertain. The steel billet exports have increased too fast year - on - year, and the annualized calculation may exceed 10 million tons [7]. - From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 24.135 million tons, a decrease of 3.594 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.997 million tons month - on - month. The global iron ore shipment decreased by 1.491 million tons month - on - month [7]. - A coal mine in Changzhi will be shut down for maintenance from June 28 to July 12, with an estimated impact on the total raw coal output of 375,000 tons [8].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年06月27日08时22分 报告导读： 本周原油价格大幅走低，对黑色商品目前影响有限。5 月各线房价环比均回落，显示目前的房地产市场仍处于筑底的过程中 ，5 月的经济数据整体 略不及预期。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，本周螺纹产量有所上升，厂库回升，社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求环比略有回升，数 据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态。从需求的季节性规律看，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱，且库存将会小幅回升。整体来看，目 前市场交易的是弱现实和弱预期，但价格也有可能充分地反映了各方面的利空 。从技术上看，期价仍旧维持窄幅震荡，成交在回落，在价格下跌 时，持仓量放大，显示空头仍更主动，最近几日的下跌，也有可能是二次探底结束，后市大概率延续震荡 操作建议： 维持观望，回调企稳后可做多，不可追涨 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black commodity market is currently trading on weak reality and weak expectations, but prices may have fully reflected various negative factors. For both螺纹 and热卷, it is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see stance and consider going long after a full adjustment. For铁矿石, it is also recommended to maintain a wait - and - see stance, go long after a pullback, and avoid chasing up or selling down [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. 螺纹、热卷 - **Market Environment**: The fragile cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to a significant drop in crude oil prices, but it has limited impact on black commodities. The real - estate market is still in the bottom - building process, and May's economic data was slightly below expectations [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week,螺纹 production increased, factory inventory decreased, social inventory continued to decline, and total inventory decreased. Apparent demand continued to decline on a month - on - month basis, indicating a situation of weak supply and demand. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory may rise slightly [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are still in a narrow - range oscillation, trading volume is declining, and when prices fall, open interest increases, indicating that short - sellers are more active. There may be a second bottom - testing trend in the near future [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance and consider going long after a full adjustment [2]. - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the螺纹 steel主力 contract was 2976 yuan/ton, down 0.03% from the previous day and 0.33% from last week; the closing price of the热轧卷板主力 contract was 3098 yuan/ton, down 0.03% from the previous day and 0.13% from last week. Spot prices also showed a downward trend [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill螺纹 steel production was 212.18 million tons, up 2.22% from last week; the热卷 production was 325.45 million tons, up 0.25% from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The five - major varieties of social inventory and螺纹 social inventory decreased, with a decline of 1.55% and 1.72% respectively; the热卷 social inventory decreased by 1.95% [2]. 2. 铁矿石 - **Market Environment**: The fragile cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to a significant drop in crude oil prices. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron - water production is expected to decline further [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Global shipments are at a relatively high level and are rising seasonally. The decline rate of port inventory is slowing down, and the proportion of trade - mine inventory is relatively high, exerting obvious pressure on futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are still in a large - range oscillation pattern, with a long - term downward trend and short - term weak oscillation [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance, go long after a pullback, and avoid chasing up or selling down [4]. - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE铁矿石主力 contract was 702.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.07% from the previous day and up 1.01% from last week [4]. - **Supply**: Australian iron - ore shipments were 1884 million tons, up 4.35% from last week; Brazilian iron - ore shipments were 858.4 million tons, up 27.76% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The total port inventory was 13894.16 million tons, down 0.28% from last week; the port trade - mine inventory was 9401.45 million tons, down 1.07% from last week [4]. 3. Industry News - He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice - Premier of the State Council, pointed out that efforts should be made to continuously consolidate the stability of the real - estate market, accelerate the construction of a new real - estate development model, and better meet the people's new expectations for "good houses" [6]. - According to Mysteel, Jiangsu Yonggang plans to overhaul a 1080³ blast furnace for about 2 months starting in early July, which is expected to affect about 200,000 tons of iron - water production. Due to insufficient iron - water, a corresponding螺纹 steel production line will be shut down during the same period [7]. - An executive of Brazilian mining giant Vale said that the iron - ore production of the Gelado project is expected to reach about 5 million tons in 2026, an increase from 2.5 million tons this year [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are experiencing fluctuations around the 260,000 yuan per ton mark, with a slight decline of 0.07% in the main contract, closing at 263,000 yuan per ton. The market is currently in a vacuum period with strong supply realities but weak expectations, limiting the upward potential of tin prices [1] - The operating rates of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi remain low, with a combined operating rate of only 46.84% as of last week. The processing fees for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan have dropped to historical lows, severely squeezing profit margins and forcing some enterprises to reduce production or undergo maintenance [1] - In Jiangxi, there is a shortage of recycled tin raw materials, with the recovery of waste tin post-Spring Festival falling below 70% of the annual average, and electronic waste supply decreasing by 30% month-on-month. This situation is exacerbated by policy uncertainties regarding recycled resources [1] Group 2 - In May 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates reached 13,448.80 physical tons (equivalent to 6,752.11 metal tons), marking a year-on-year increase of 98.56% and a month-on-month increase of 44.70%. However, the import volume remains at historical lows, indicating a slight alleviation of domestic raw material supply shortages [2] - The main increases in imports are concentrated in Africa and South America, particularly from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, and Bolivia. Conversely, imports from Myanmar saw a significant decline, with May figures showing a 37.13% month-on-month decrease and a 32.01% year-on-year decrease [2] - The market outlook suggests a weakening supply and demand scenario, with smelting plants facing reduced operating rates due to insufficient tin concentrate supply. Additionally, the end of the solar market's installation phase may lead to a sharp decline in orders for tin bar manufacturers, making it difficult for tin prices to exhibit a clear trend [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The combination of "strong reality + weak expectation" results in no clear and smooth trend for copper prices. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits the decline of copper prices, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside potential. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. The "rush - to - export" demand is an over - draft of future demand, and the actual demand side may face pressure in Q3. The main reference range is 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, the current low - inventory pattern and the expectation of an increase in the proportion of molten aluminum support the aluminum price to run strongly, but the pressure of the consumption off - season limits its upside space. The short - term aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,600 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The market for recycled aluminum alloy presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. The price of SMM ADC12 runs weakly in a narrow range. The subsequent weak demand situation will continue to restrict the upside space of prices. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main reference range of 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In a pessimistic scenario, the center of zinc prices may move down. The medium - to - long - term approach is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply - side recovery progress is slow. Under the strong reality, short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the pessimistic demand expectation, attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery rhythm. The approach is to short on rallies around 260,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [9]. Nickel - The overseas nickel market has high inventory, and the domestic social inventory shows a slight downward trend. The inventory still exerts pressure on the fundamentals. In the short term, the disk is expected to adjust weakly in a range, with the main reference range of 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals of stainless steel continue to be weak, with certain support at the ore end, a downward negotiation range for nickel - iron, high stainless - steel production, and overall weak demand and slow inventory reduction. In the short term, there is still pressure under the supply - demand contradiction. The disk is expected to run weakly, with the main operation range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term disk is expected to run weakly in a range. The approach is still to short on rallies, but attention should be paid to the weakening of the short - selling return ratio and the susceptibility to news interference in the short term. The main reference range is 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 90 yuan/ton to 78,415 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.11%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton. Other copper prices and premiums also showed corresponding changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of electrolytic copper was 1.1383 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The import volume increased by 1.23% to 253,100 tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 12.39% week - on - week to 712,100 tons. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased to 75.82%, while that of recycled copper rod production decreased to 29.03% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 20,540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.53%. The monthly spread of some contracts also decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of alumina was 7.2721 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.66%. The production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.729 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.41%. The operating rate of some aluminum processing industries decreased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,000 yuan/ton. Some monthly spreads changed [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.66% to 606,000 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.38% to 261,000 tons. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,150 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.91%. Some monthly spreads decreased [7]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of refined zinc was 549,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%. The import volume increased by 2.40% to 28,200 tons. The operating rate of some zinc - consuming industries showed different trends [7]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 263,700 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.73%. Some monthly spreads increased [9]. Fundamental Data - In May, the import of tin ore increased by 36.39% to 13,449 tons. The production of SMM refined tin decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 119,000 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.42%. The cost of some nickel production methods decreased [11]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - The production of refined nickel in China decreased by 2.62% to 35,350 tons. The LME inventory decreased by 0.11% to 203,928 tons [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,600 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.40%. Some monthly spreads changed [14]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) increased by 0.36% to 1.7912 million tons. The import volume of stainless steel decreased by 12.00% to 125,100 tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 59,900 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.08%. Some monthly spreads decreased [18]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of lithium carbonate was 72,080 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%. The demand increased by 4.83% to 93,960 tons. The total inventory increased by 1.49% to 97,637 tons [18].

铜、铝短期调整或开启 20250622 摘要 电解铝库存下降反映铝水比提升趋势，未来库存或维持低位，需综合考 虑电解铝及铝棒库存数据，上周数据显示铝棒库存及毛利率显著上涨， 行业进入垒库周期，景气下行周期确立。 氧化铝供需偏过剩，价格预计在 2,800-2,900 元区间运行，受限于成本 线。电解铝供给受限，需求或边际走弱，整体利润水平预计维持在 3,000 元上下。 短期铅价受宏观情绪修复和低库存影响出现逼仓，现货价格高于期货。 但宏观和交易层面已达高点，开始回归基本面，全产业链库存开始累库， 加工费下降，短期调整已来临。 美国关税影响有限，电解铝和铜的关键整数位（19,500 元和 75,000 元）成为心理支撑位。季节性波动下，全成本曲线支撑适用，电解铝和 铜分别在 19,000 元以上和 72,000-73,000 元形成较强支撑。 铜市场供需双弱，厂库和社库开始累库，加工费走弱，需求边际走弱。 供给侧受废铜供应紧张和矿端问题扰动，如卡莫阿和卡莫拉矿区矿震导 致减产，短期调整幅度有限。 Q&A 请介绍一下近期铝市场的动态和趋势。 近期铝市场出现了一轮强劲的底部行情，主要受电解铝库存数据影响。电解铝 库 ...