Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by Indonesia's industrial policies, global trade tensions, and raw material prices, with current prices stabilizing but facing downward pressure due to weak demand and inventory accumulation [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In Q1, Indonesia's industrial policies positively impacted the stainless steel market, with prices peaking at 13,800 CNY/ton [1] - Following the implementation of the "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration, stainless steel futures dropped significantly, reaching a low of below 12,600 CNY/ton [1] - As global trade tensions eased, nickel-iron prices continued to decline, leading to a lack of upward momentum for stainless steel prices [1] Group 2: Nickel Supply and Pricing - The current supply of Indonesian nickel ore remains tight, with domestic prices for 1.6%-1.8% grade nickel ore stabilizing around 60 USD/wet ton [1] - If the Indonesian government reduces nickel ore production quotas, it could exacerbate supply-demand imbalances in Q3, potentially benefiting stainless steel prices [1] - Nickel raw material costs account for approximately 61% of the cost structure for the mainstream 300 series stainless steel, indicating significant sensitivity to nickel price changes [1] Group 3: Nickel Iron and Chromium Prices - Nickel iron prices have seen a decline from 1,030 CNY/nickel at the end of March to 940 CNY/nickel, but recently rebounded to around 970 CNY/nickel, providing some cost support for stainless steel [2] - High-carbon ferrochrome prices are under pressure due to the resumption of production at ferrochrome plants and reduced output from some stainless steel manufacturers, with costs in southern and northern regions reported at 8,561 CNY/50 base tons and 8,362 CNY/50 base tons, respectively [2] Group 4: Production and Inventory - In May, domestic stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4899 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.36% but a year-on-year increase of 5.76% [2] - Recent production cuts from stainless steel manufacturers, such as a three-month shutdown at Indonesia's Qingshan Steel and a planned 10-15 day shutdown at a steel plant in East China, have had limited impact on the futures market due to high overall supply levels [2] Group 5: Demand and Market Outlook - The second quarter is traditionally a slow season for stainless steel demand, with the real estate market showing weak recovery indicators [3] - Export challenges due to tariffs and new regulations are expected to limit improvements in stainless steel demand [3] - Social inventory of stainless steel has been accumulating, with a reported increase of 0.85% to 1.1177 million tons in major markets [3] - Overall, while production cuts and rising nickel iron prices provide some support, weak demand and slow inventory digestion are likely to keep stainless steel prices in a range of 12,600 to 13,200 CNY/ton in the short term [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, but the market lacks strong drivers. The main logic is the dynamic game between OPEC+ production - increase expectations and Russia - sanction risks. - In the short - term, observe opportunities to short on rebounds. WTI is expected to fluctuate in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a band - trading strategy. [2] Methanol - The inland methanol market has downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are divided. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period. - Suggest to short MA09 contract on rallies. [5] LLDPE and PP - Spot prices continue to fall, and overall trading is weak. LLDPE has inventory - reduction expectations before early June, while PP will face increasing supply pressure after late May. - Short PP on rallies; the LP spread is expected to widen. [9] Urea - The urea market is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton around the Dragon Boat Festival. Pay attention to signals such as wheat - harvest progress in northern Anhui, port pre - collection scale, and the operating rate of Shanxi's fixed - bed plants. [19] Styrene - The pure benzene market price is weak, but there is an expected turnaround as styrene plants resume operation. - The styrene port inventory has started to accumulate, and the 3S products have limited driving force. Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month contracts. [30] Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, but short - term support is strong. Consider a long - position around 6600 and a short - spread between PX9 - 1. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, but support is strong at low processing fees. Pay attention to polyester production cuts. Consider a long - position around 4600 and a short - spread between TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for EG9 - 1. - **Short - fiber**: Processing fees may recover. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread. - **Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread in the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range. [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand and high valuations. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for 6 - 9 contracts. - **PVC**: The market is weak due to poor sentiment. Long - term contradictions are prominent, but short - term supply pressure is limited. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a short - selling strategy for the 09 contract above 5100. [39][40] 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.00%); WTI increased by 0.35 to 61.24 dollars/barrel (0.57%); SC decreased by 3.90 to 453.50 yuan/barrel (-0.85%). [2] - **Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.40 to 207.55 cents/gallon (0.19%); NYM ULSD increased by 0.50 to 208.44 cents/gallon (0.24%); ICE Gasoil decreased by 3.75 to 606.00 dollars/ton (-0.62%). [2] - **Product Crack Spreads**: Most crack spreads showed small changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. [2] Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2505 decreased by 64 to 2229 yuan/ton (-2.79%); the MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 48 to 21 yuan/ton (-69.57%). - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.2 to 33.401% (-0.52%); port inventory increased by 0.6 to 49.0 million tons (1.34%). - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.0 to 74.51% (-1.31%); the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.9 to 83.54% (10.39%). [5] LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 decreased by 73 to 6986 yuan/ton (-1.03%); PP2509 decreased by 33 to 6896 yuan/ton (-0.48%). - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 1.43 to 78.0% (-1.80%); PP device operating rate increased by 0.28 to 76.8% (0.4%). - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.94 to 49.8 million tons (-5.57%); PP enterprise inventory decreased by 1.12 to 59.3 million tons (-1.85%). [9] Urea - **Futures Prices**: 01, 05, and 09 contracts all showed slight decreases. - **Raw Material and Production Costs**: Most raw material prices were stable, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 50 to 2120 yuan/ton (-2.30%). - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.30 to 20.48 million tons (1.49%); factory inventory increased by 10.02 to 91.74 million tons (12.26%). [14][17][19] Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.6 to 64.1 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Styrene's East - China spot price increased by 75 to 7900 yuan/ton (1.0%); EB2506 decreased by 28 to 7313 yuan/ton (-0.4%). - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory increased by 0.5 to 12.8 million tons (4.1%); styrene port inventory decreased by 1.8 to 7.5 million tons (-19.0%). [27][28][30] Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price remained at 6990 yuan/ton; polyester bottle - chip price decreased by 81 to 5941 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.9 to 69.4% (2.8%); polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.1 to 95.0% (1.2%). [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 62.5 to 2750 yuan/ton (2.3%); East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 60 to 4700 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.1 to 86.9% (1.3%); PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 to 73.1% (-1.2%). - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory decreased by 0.4 to 19.1 million tons (-1.9%); PVC total social inventory decreased by 2.0 to 37.8 million tons (-4.9%). [39][40]

| 公询 各资格:证监许可【 | ICTERIA | 日度 策略参 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 往后看,随着市场对关税冲击的波动与政策护盘动能趋于衰减, | | | | 在缺乏增量催化因素的背景下,短期或转入震荡整固阶段。策略 | 最新 | 股指谨慎观望为主,关注宏观增量信号。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 宏观金融 | 国 | 空间。 | | | | | 金价短期或再度进入震荡;但中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实。 | 農汤 | 用守 | 短期高位区间震荡，但中期上方空间有限。 | 震荡 | 日銀 | - Fel | | 海外铜矿供应扰动提振铜价,但近期国内外宏观数据偏弱压制市 | 看空 | 场风险偏好, 叠加铜下游需求有所转弱,铜价上行空间变限,短 | 期谨防回落风险。 | | | | | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,但随着铝价走高,上行空间 | 農汤 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: None - **Bearish**: Copper, Polycrystalline Silicon, Pure Lithium, Jiao Coal, Coke, BR Rubber, Pure Benzene, LPG - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Gold, Japanese Yen, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Urea, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] Core Viewpoints - The market's reaction to tariff impacts and policy support is waning, and in the absence of new catalysts, there are short - term risks of market fluctuations and adjustments [1]. - Asset shortages and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. - The risk of US Treasury bonds has eased, and gold prices may enter a period of oscillation, but the long - term upward trend remains [1]. - Various factors such as weak macro data, changes in supply and demand, and policy uncertainties are affecting the prices of different commodities, with most commodities expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: With the fading impact of tariffs and policy support, and the current rebound reaching the upper limit of the range, there is a short - term risk of oscillating adjustment in the absence of new catalysts [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortages and a weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. - **Gold**: The risk of US Treasury bonds has eased, and gold prices may enter a period of oscillation, but the long - term upward trend remains [1]. - **Japanese Yen**: It will oscillate in the short - term high - level range, but the medium - term upward space is limited [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak macro data and reduced downstream demand limit the upward space of copper prices, with a short - term risk of decline [1]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Low aluminum inventories support prices, but the upward space is limited as prices rise. For alumina, although the price is rising due to mine disturbances, the improvement in production profits may lead to复产, restricting the upward space [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Global trade frictions and policy uncertainties cause prices to oscillate in the short - term. Long - term, the supply of primary nickel is excessive, and stainless steel has supply pressure [1]. - **Tin**: Before the resumption of production at low - grade mines, the fundamentals of tin prices are strongly supported [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply remains high, it has entered a low - valuation range, and demand remains low [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Downstream production schedules are rapidly decreasing, futures premiums over spot prices, and warehouse receipts are increasing [1]. - **Pure Lithium**: Mine prices are continuously falling without signs of production cuts, and downstream buyers are not active [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The market is in a transition period from peak to off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns, and no clear upward price drivers [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation that iron - water production has reached its peak, but there are no new supply - side developments, and attention should be paid to steel pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon has short - term supply - demand balance with high warehouse - receipt pressure; ferrosilicon's cost is affected by thermal coal, but production cuts in the production area have tightened supply - demand [1]. Building Materials - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about declining demand. Soda ash has good immediate demand due to many maintenance activities in May, but faces medium - term supply overcapacity and price pressure [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Palm oil is affected by factors such as Indonesian weather and US biodiesel proposals; soybean oil is affected by Argentine weather with limited impact; rapeseed oil is affected by potential tariff increases, but the impact has been mostly priced in [1]. - **Cotton**: There are short - term disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums, and long - term macro uncertainties. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - cane ratio and sugar production [1]. - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is expected to have a tight supply - demand situation in the medium - term, with short - term factors limiting the upward space of the futures price. Soybeans face pressure from concentrated arrivals and fast sowing progress, and low - valuation buying is recommended [1]. - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp port inventories are rising, with some improvement in white - cardboard demand. Logs have a pattern of loose supply and weak demand, and both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Hogs**: With the continuous restoration of hog inventories and increasing slaughter weights, the futures market has a clear expectation of sufficient supply, and the futures price is expected to remain stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, and Asphalt**: Crude oil and fuel oil are affected by factors such as the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation and OPEC+ production - increase news. Asphalt is affected by cost drag, inventory changes, and slow demand recovery [1]. - **Shanghai Rubber and BR Rubber**: Shanghai rubber is affected by factors such as rainfall and storage - purchase rumors. BR rubber's short - term upward sentiment has slowed, and there is a risk of long - term decline [1]. - **PTA, Ethylene Glycol, and Short Fiber**: PTA's supply - demand situation has improved, ethylene glycol is in a de - stocking phase, and short - fiber costs are closely related to PTA [1]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The speculative demand for pure benzene has weakened, and styrene plants have increased production and are actively selling [1]. - **Urea and Methanol**: Urea demand is weak, and methanol is expected to oscillate at a low level, with attention to factors such as plant maintenance and imports [1]. - **PE, PP, and PVC**: PE's seasonal demand is weakening, PP's production has recovered, and PVC has a weak fundamental situation but is supported by macro factors [1]. - **Caustic Soda and LPG**: Caustic soda is affected by the alumina market, and LPG is expected to decline due to factors such as tariff relaxation and the off - season [1]. Others - The market has a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. For futures, it is recommended to try long - positions in the peak - season contracts with light positions and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic negative factors have led to a decline in the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, with market focus shifting to the pressures of global trade friction on the economy, particularly after the record trade deficit data was released [1] Trade Deficit - The trade deficit in March expanded to a record $140.5 billion, a 14% increase compared to the same period last year, significantly exceeding economists' expectations [4] - The increase in trade deficit is primarily attributed to businesses importing large quantities of goods to avoid potential tariff costs ahead of new tariffs being implemented [4] - Market analysts believe that as the surge in imports nears its end, this trend is expected to ease in the coming months, supported by declining survey data and port container shipping volumes [4] Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - The decline in two-year Treasury yields indicates that investors are increasingly anticipating potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with traders expecting three rate cuts this year, the first possibly in September [6] - However, the decision for further easing by the Federal Reserve will depend on economic data performance, with the stronger-than-expected April non-farm payroll report slightly cooling market bets on rate cuts [6] - Investors remain cautious due to increased market uncertainty, as the Fed may not implement comprehensive monetary easing despite concerning economic data [6] Supply Chain Issues - Analysts from BlackRock Investment Institute suggest that U.S. economic performance this year may be hampered by supply-side issues, with tariff policies potentially leading to supply bottlenecks similar to those experienced during the pandemic [7] - This situation will force the Federal Reserve to make difficult choices between supporting economic growth and curbing inflation [7] - Overall, global trade friction, the potential impacts of tariff policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions will be key factors influencing the U.S. economic trajectory in the coming months [7]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced fluctuations, with a rebound following gold prices, amid concerns over new U.S. policies on drug imports and tariffs, which have heightened demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, which poses long-term pressure on non-yielding assets like silver [2] - The current silver price is testing a key resistance level of $33.500, with potential upward movement if this level is breached [2] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with geopolitical tensions potentially driving silver prices above $33.500 towards the psychological level of $35.000 [3] - Institutional positioning shows a slight increase in long and short ratios, indicating a balanced market without extreme sentiment [3] Technical Analysis - The Bollinger Bands indicate that silver is currently in an upward channel, with the upper band at $34.715 and the lower band at $29.966 [2] - Key support levels for silver are identified at $32.800 and $32.400, with a potential drop to $31.182 if these levels are breached [3] Trading Strategy - A trading strategy suggests entering long positions around $31.88 with a stop loss at $31.50 and a take profit target between $33.68 and $33.90 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The GDP in Q1 increased by 5.4% year - on - year, significantly higher than the annual target of 5%. Although the economic data in March improved notably, the bond market's focus remained on the tariff situation. The market was in a sideways state, and ultra - long bonds slightly retraced [1][11][38]. - The recent intensification of global trade frictions has led to significant shocks in global capital markets, increasing the downward pressure on the global economy. Short - term risk - aversion sentiment is expected to remain strong, and the bond market is likely to oscillate with an upward bias [2][3][12][13]. - However, the term spread of 30 - year treasury bonds is extremely low, and the term spread protection is limited. The credit spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is also at a historically low level, with limited credit spread protection [2][3][12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - Ultra - long Bond Recap - In terms of trading, the trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but it was still relatively active. In terms of spreads, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the credit spread remained flat [1][11]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury Bonds: As of April 18, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 25BP, at a historically low level. Considering domestic economic data, inflation, and global economic conditions, the bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - 20 - year CDB Bonds: As of April 18, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to 30 - year treasury bonds, considering various factors, the bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, but the credit spread protection is limited [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The outstanding balance of ultra - long bonds exceeded 20.7 trillion. By type, local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds was relatively large. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance volume of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly. By type, local government bonds had the largest issuance volume. By term, the 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance volume [19]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week totals 172.9 billion yuan, including 121 billion yuan of ultra - long treasury bonds and 49.9 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was relatively active, but the trading activity decreased slightly compared with the previous week. The trading volume and proportion of various types of ultra - long bonds decreased to different extents [28][29]. Yield - Due to the market's focus on tariffs, the market was in a sideways state, and ultra - long bonds slightly retraced. The yields of different - term ultra - long bonds of various types changed to different extents [38]. Spread Analysis - Term Spread: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, but the absolute level was low. - Credit Spread: The credit spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat last week, and the absolute level was low [45][51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2506, closed at 119.70 yuan, up 0.14%. The total trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, and the open interest increased slightly [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the tariff storm continued to intensify. China introduced countermeasures, and the US suspended tariffs for 90 days on countries that did not retaliate. With domestic liquidity remaining loose, the bond market opened higher and fluctuated, and ultra-long bonds continued to rise significantly. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly last week, and trading was quite active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds widened, while the variety spread narrowed [1][3][11][39]. - As of April 11, the spread between 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 21BP, at a historically low level. The domestic economy started well this year, with the estimated monthly GDP from January to February at 5.1%, higher than the 2025 annual economic target of 5%. In March, CPI was -0.1%, indicating obvious deflation risks. Considering the fundamental data, the economy is still at the bottom, and the probability of the central bank tightening monetary policy is low. Recently, global trade frictions have intensified, leading to turmoil in global capital markets and increasing downward pressure on the global economy. Short-term risk aversion is expected to remain strong, and the bond market will fluctuate with an upward bias. However, the current term spread of 30-year treasury bonds is extremely low, providing limited protection [2][12]. - As of April 11, the spread between 20-year CDB bonds and 20-year treasury bonds was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. The domestic economy started well this year, with the estimated monthly GDP from January to February at 5.1%, higher than the 2025 annual economic target of 5%. In March, CPI was -0.1%, indicating obvious deflation risks. Considering the fundamental data, the economy is still at the bottom, and the probability of the central bank tightening monetary policy is low. Recently, global trade frictions have intensified, leading to turmoil in global capital markets and increasing downward pressure on the global economy. Short-term risk aversion is expected to remain strong, and the bond market will fluctuate with an upward bias. However, the current variety spread of 20-year CDB bonds is extremely low, providing limited protection [3][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, due to the tariff storm, China's countermeasures, and the US tariff suspension, with loose domestic liquidity, the bond market opened higher and fluctuated, and ultra-long bonds continued to rise significantly. Trading activity increased slightly, and the term spread widened while the variety spread narrowed [1][3][11]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: The spread is at a low level, the economy shows mixed signals, deflation risks exist, and the bond market is expected to be strong in the short term, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - **20-year CDB Bonds**: The spread is extremely low, the economic situation is similar to that of 30-year treasury bonds, and the bond market outlook is also positive in the short term, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][13]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds exceeds 20.7 trillion. As of March 31, the total amount of ultra-long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 207,961 billion (excluding asset-backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining maturity, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, a relatively large amount of ultra-long bonds were issued, with a slight increase compared to the previous week. By variety, local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main issuers. By term, 30-year bonds had the largest issuance volume [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for this week totals 1,144 billion, mainly consisting of local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra-long bond trading was quite active, with an increase in trading volume and proportion compared to the previous week. Different bond varieties showed different trends in trading volume and proportion changes [28][29]. Yield - Last week, due to the tariff situation and domestic liquidity, ultra-long bond yields generally declined. Different types of bonds, such as treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds, all saw yield decreases [39]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: It widened last week but remained at a relatively low absolute level [49]. - **Variety Spread**: It narrowed last week and was also at a low absolute level [52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30-year treasury bond futures contract TL2506 closed at 119.53 yuan, up 0.66%. Trading volume increased significantly, while open interest decreased slightly [54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The global trade friction has entered a tough - on - tough stage after Trump announced the reciprocal tariff policy on April 2nd. Market panic has soared to a new high since 2020, and the precious metals market is in a dual - game situation of safe - haven demand and liquidity pressure. The market volatility is expected to remain high in the near future, and attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations between countries and the US and the performance of US economic data [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals market: During the day, the outer - market precious metals rose slightly. London gold temporarily reclaimed the $3000 mark and was trading around $3004, while London silver was fluctuating around the $30 mark and was trading around $30.1. Affected by the outer - market, the main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.37% at 719.22 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 0.26% at 7683 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Dollar index: The dollar index fluctuated sideways and was trading around 103.1 [4]. - US Treasury yields: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds gave back part of yesterday's gains and was trading around 4.14% [4]. - RMB exchange rate: The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to weaken and was trading around 7.336 [5]. Important Information - Trump administration: On the 7th, Trump said he would not suspend reciprocal tariff measures and rejected the EU's proposed mutual tariff exemption policy; Trump's team considered an export tax credit policy; seven Republican senators supported a bill to limit Trump's tariff power; the White House denied the rumor of suspending tariffs for 90 days; US Treasury Secretary said it was unlikely to reach a trade agreement with any country before April 9th, and nearly 70 countries were seeking negotiations; the US plans to increase the tariff on Canadian timber from 14.4% to 34.45% [6]. - Other countries' tariff measures: The EU proposed to impose a 25% tariff on some US products starting from April 15th in two steps, and the second part will start on May 15th; the Japanese Prime Minister said Japan would not retaliate against the US [6]. - Fed's view: Fed Governor Kugler said ensuring inflation does not rise is a priority [7]. - Fed's observation: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 43%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57%. By June, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 20.4%, the cumulative probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 49.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 - basis - point rate cut is 29.9% [8][10]. Logical Analysis The reciprocal tariff policy has led to market concerns about counter - measures from other countries, and the market is trading the recession expectation again. The precious metals market is affected by both the liquidity pressure of other markets and its own safe - haven property, with certain support below. High market volatility is expected to continue [11]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Try to go long on dips and pay attention to the effectiveness of the support near the previous low [12]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Collar call option strategy [14]. Data Reference - Multiple data charts are provided, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, real yields and precious metals, domestic and foreign futures trends, spot - futures trends, domestic - foreign spreads, ETF holdings, futures inventories, trading volumes, TD data, and the relationship between Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [16][19][21] etc.

Monetary Market Overview - The central bank's net liquidity withdrawal this week was 501.9 billion yuan, with a significant tightening observed at the beginning of the week[3] - The DR007 rate fell to approximately 1.7%, marking the lowest level since mid-January 2025[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos decreased by 0.28 trillion yuan to 6.08 trillion yuan compared to last week[3] Institutional Behavior - Large banks' net financing remained stable above 3.1 trillion yuan, while joint-stock banks showed fluctuations until a decline on Thursday[3] - Non-bank institutions' rigid financing increased, but money market fund financing hit a year-to-date low[3] - The adjusted funding gap index dropped to 1,103 on Thursday, down from 2,452 the previous week[3] Government Debt Issuance - The overall government debt payment scale is expected to decrease to 1 billion yuan next week, with a net repayment scale dropping from 546.1 billion yuan to -390.6 billion yuan[21] - The total issuance of new general bonds reached 279.1 billion yuan, while new special bonds amounted to 960.2 billion yuan this week[21] - The estimated net financing scale for government bonds in April is approximately 860 billion yuan, a decrease of about 610 billion yuan compared to March[21] Future Outlook - The central bank may reassess the economic environment due to escalating global trade tensions, potentially accelerating the decline in funding rates[19] - The possibility of a reduction in reserve requirements or interest rates may arise if external pressures on the equity market or foreign demand increase[19] - Next week, only three discount treasury payments are expected, with a significant repayment on Wednesday reaching 350.3 billion yuan[21]