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超长债周报:税走向不明,市场横盘震荡-20250420
Guoxin Securities· 2025-04-20 13:43
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The GDP in Q1 increased by 5.4% year - on - year, significantly higher than the annual target of 5%. Although the economic data in March improved notably, the bond market's focus remained on the tariff situation. The market was in a sideways state, and ultra - long bonds slightly retraced [1][11][38]. - The recent intensification of global trade frictions has led to significant shocks in global capital markets, increasing the downward pressure on the global economy. Short - term risk - aversion sentiment is expected to remain strong, and the bond market is likely to oscillate with an upward bias [2][3][12][13]. - However, the term spread of 30 - year treasury bonds is extremely low, and the term spread protection is limited. The credit spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is also at a historically low level, with limited credit spread protection [2][3][12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - Ultra - long Bond Recap - In terms of trading, the trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but it was still relatively active. In terms of spreads, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the credit spread remained flat [1][11]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury Bonds: As of April 18, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 25BP, at a historically low level. Considering domestic economic data, inflation, and global economic conditions, the bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - 20 - year CDB Bonds: As of April 18, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to 30 - year treasury bonds, considering various factors, the bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, but the credit spread protection is limited [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The outstanding balance of ultra - long bonds exceeded 20.7 trillion. By type, local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds was relatively large. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance volume of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly. By type, local government bonds had the largest issuance volume. By term, the 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance volume [19]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week totals 172.9 billion yuan, including 121 billion yuan of ultra - long treasury bonds and 49.9 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was relatively active, but the trading activity decreased slightly compared with the previous week. The trading volume and proportion of various types of ultra - long bonds decreased to different extents [28][29]. Yield - Due to the market's focus on tariffs, the market was in a sideways state, and ultra - long bonds slightly retraced. The yields of different - term ultra - long bonds of various types changed to different extents [38]. Spread Analysis - Term Spread: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, but the absolute level was low. - Credit Spread: The credit spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat last week, and the absolute level was low [45][51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2506, closed at 119.70 yuan, up 0.14%. The total trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, and the open interest increased slightly [53].
超长债周报:关税风暴发酵,超长债再探前低-20250414
Guoxin Securities· 2025-04-14 01:15
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the tariff storm continued to intensify. China introduced countermeasures, and the US suspended tariffs for 90 days on countries that did not retaliate. With domestic liquidity remaining loose, the bond market opened higher and fluctuated, and ultra-long bonds continued to rise significantly. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly last week, and trading was quite active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds widened, while the variety spread narrowed [1][3][11][39]. - As of April 11, the spread between 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 21BP, at a historically low level. The domestic economy started well this year, with the estimated monthly GDP from January to February at 5.1%, higher than the 2025 annual economic target of 5%. In March, CPI was -0.1%, indicating obvious deflation risks. Considering the fundamental data, the economy is still at the bottom, and the probability of the central bank tightening monetary policy is low. Recently, global trade frictions have intensified, leading to turmoil in global capital markets and increasing downward pressure on the global economy. Short-term risk aversion is expected to remain strong, and the bond market will fluctuate with an upward bias. However, the current term spread of 30-year treasury bonds is extremely low, providing limited protection [2][12]. - As of April 11, the spread between 20-year CDB bonds and 20-year treasury bonds was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. The domestic economy started well this year, with the estimated monthly GDP from January to February at 5.1%, higher than the 2025 annual economic target of 5%. In March, CPI was -0.1%, indicating obvious deflation risks. Considering the fundamental data, the economy is still at the bottom, and the probability of the central bank tightening monetary policy is low. Recently, global trade frictions have intensified, leading to turmoil in global capital markets and increasing downward pressure on the global economy. Short-term risk aversion is expected to remain strong, and the bond market will fluctuate with an upward bias. However, the current variety spread of 20-year CDB bonds is extremely low, providing limited protection [3][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, due to the tariff storm, China's countermeasures, and the US tariff suspension, with loose domestic liquidity, the bond market opened higher and fluctuated, and ultra-long bonds continued to rise significantly. Trading activity increased slightly, and the term spread widened while the variety spread narrowed [1][3][11]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: The spread is at a low level, the economy shows mixed signals, deflation risks exist, and the bond market is expected to be strong in the short term, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - **20-year CDB Bonds**: The spread is extremely low, the economic situation is similar to that of 30-year treasury bonds, and the bond market outlook is also positive in the short term, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][13]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds exceeds 20.7 trillion. As of March 31, the total amount of ultra-long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 207,961 billion (excluding asset-backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining maturity, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, a relatively large amount of ultra-long bonds were issued, with a slight increase compared to the previous week. By variety, local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main issuers. By term, 30-year bonds had the largest issuance volume [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for this week totals 1,144 billion, mainly consisting of local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra-long bond trading was quite active, with an increase in trading volume and proportion compared to the previous week. Different bond varieties showed different trends in trading volume and proportion changes [28][29]. Yield - Last week, due to the tariff situation and domestic liquidity, ultra-long bond yields generally declined. Different types of bonds, such as treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds, all saw yield decreases [39]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: It widened last week but remained at a relatively low absolute level [49]. - **Variety Spread**: It narrowed last week and was also at a low absolute level [52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30-year treasury bond futures contract TL2506 closed at 119.53 yuan, up 0.66%. Trading volume increased significantly, while open interest decreased slightly [54].
银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20250408
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-04-08 11:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The global trade friction has entered a tough - on - tough stage after Trump announced the reciprocal tariff policy on April 2nd. Market panic has soared to a new high since 2020, and the precious metals market is in a dual - game situation of safe - haven demand and liquidity pressure. The market volatility is expected to remain high in the near future, and attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations between countries and the US and the performance of US economic data [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals market: During the day, the outer - market precious metals rose slightly. London gold temporarily reclaimed the $3000 mark and was trading around $3004, while London silver was fluctuating around the $30 mark and was trading around $30.1. Affected by the outer - market, the main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.37% at 719.22 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 0.26% at 7683 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Dollar index: The dollar index fluctuated sideways and was trading around 103.1 [4]. - US Treasury yields: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds gave back part of yesterday's gains and was trading around 4.14% [4]. - RMB exchange rate: The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to weaken and was trading around 7.336 [5]. Important Information - Trump administration: On the 7th, Trump said he would not suspend reciprocal tariff measures and rejected the EU's proposed mutual tariff exemption policy; Trump's team considered an export tax credit policy; seven Republican senators supported a bill to limit Trump's tariff power; the White House denied the rumor of suspending tariffs for 90 days; US Treasury Secretary said it was unlikely to reach a trade agreement with any country before April 9th, and nearly 70 countries were seeking negotiations; the US plans to increase the tariff on Canadian timber from 14.4% to 34.45% [6]. - Other countries' tariff measures: The EU proposed to impose a 25% tariff on some US products starting from April 15th in two steps, and the second part will start on May 15th; the Japanese Prime Minister said Japan would not retaliate against the US [6]. - Fed's view: Fed Governor Kugler said ensuring inflation does not rise is a priority [7]. - Fed's observation: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 43%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57%. By June, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 20.4%, the cumulative probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 49.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 - basis - point rate cut is 29.9% [8][10]. Logical Analysis The reciprocal tariff policy has led to market concerns about counter - measures from other countries, and the market is trading the recession expectation again. The precious metals market is affected by both the liquidity pressure of other markets and its own safe - haven property, with certain support below. High market volatility is expected to continue [11]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Try to go long on dips and pay attention to the effectiveness of the support near the previous low [12]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Collar call option strategy [14]. Data Reference - Multiple data charts are provided, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, real yields and precious metals, domestic and foreign futures trends, spot - futures trends, domestic - foreign spreads, ETF holdings, futures inventories, trading volumes, TD data, and the relationship between Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [16][19][21] etc.
关税落地有望加速资金利率中枢回落
Xinda Securities· 2025-04-06 05:22
Monetary Market Overview - The central bank's net liquidity withdrawal this week was 501.9 billion yuan, with a significant tightening observed at the beginning of the week[3] - The DR007 rate fell to approximately 1.7%, marking the lowest level since mid-January 2025[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos decreased by 0.28 trillion yuan to 6.08 trillion yuan compared to last week[3] Institutional Behavior - Large banks' net financing remained stable above 3.1 trillion yuan, while joint-stock banks showed fluctuations until a decline on Thursday[3] - Non-bank institutions' rigid financing increased, but money market fund financing hit a year-to-date low[3] - The adjusted funding gap index dropped to 1,103 on Thursday, down from 2,452 the previous week[3] Government Debt Issuance - The overall government debt payment scale is expected to decrease to 1 billion yuan next week, with a net repayment scale dropping from 546.1 billion yuan to -390.6 billion yuan[21] - The total issuance of new general bonds reached 279.1 billion yuan, while new special bonds amounted to 960.2 billion yuan this week[21] - The estimated net financing scale for government bonds in April is approximately 860 billion yuan, a decrease of about 610 billion yuan compared to March[21] Future Outlook - The central bank may reassess the economic environment due to escalating global trade tensions, potentially accelerating the decline in funding rates[19] - The possibility of a reduction in reserve requirements or interest rates may arise if external pressures on the equity market or foreign demand increase[19] - Next week, only three discount treasury payments are expected, with a significant repayment on Wednesday reaching 350.3 billion yuan[21]
金价再创新高!多家银行宣布:上调
凤凰网财经· 2025-03-28 13:17
来源|中国基金报 继3月27日创下历史新高后,3月28日,国际金价再次延续上涨态势。截至发稿,现货黄金升至3070美元/盎司附近,黄金期货升至3110美元/盎司 附近,双双再次刷新历史新高。 01 国际金价再创历史新高 3月27日深夜,黄金持续上涨,伦敦金现刷新历史新高至3059.63美元/盎司,COMEX黄金也一度涨至3071.30美元/盎司,创下历史新高。 3月28日,国际金价再次冲高。伦敦金现突破3070美元/盎司关口,并一度上涨至3074.22美元/盎司,再创历史新高。截至发稿,报3073.69美元/ 盎司,涨幅达0.59%。 COMEX黄金则突破3110美元/盎司关口,并一度上涨至3114.7美元/盎司,再创历史新高。截至发稿,报3112.8美元/盎司,涨幅达0.71%。 3月28日,国内黄金首饰价格也进一步上涨,最高已突破930元/克。截至发稿,周生生足金首饰价格涨至934元/克,周大福、六福等足金首饰价格 涨至932元/克,老凤祥足金首饰价格涨至929元/克。 02 多家银行上调积存金起购金额 金价续创历史新高! 3月24日,招商银行发布公告称,自3月27日起,黄金账户活期买入起点及黄金账户定投 ...