Export Performance - In May, export growth was 4.8%, down 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in momentum[3] - Cumulative export growth for May was 6.0%, higher than the annual growth rate from last year, suggesting continued resilience[3] - Exports to the US fell sharply by 34.5%, a decline of 13.5 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] Regional Export Trends - Exports to the EU increased by 12.0%, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous month, with Germany contributing a growth rate of 21.5%[4] - Exports to Canada rose by 20.3%, indicating a continuation of transshipment trade[4] - ASEAN exports showed resilience with a contribution of 2.5 percentage points to overall export growth, accounting for 52.6% of the total[4] Product-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive products like bags, textiles, and footwear saw declines in export growth rates of -10.3%, -2.0%, and -5.6% respectively, dragging down overall export growth by 0.3 percentage points[5] - High-tech products, particularly integrated circuits, saw a significant increase in export growth of 33.4%[5] - Automotive exports improved significantly with a growth rate of 13.7%, up 9.3 percentage points from the previous month[5] Import Trends - Import growth fell by 3.4%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to declining prices of bulk commodities like coal and crude oil[7] - Agricultural imports showed recovery with a growth rate of 0.7%, up 17.96 percentage points from the previous month, driven by soybeans and grains[7] Future Outlook - Export resilience is expected to continue in the short term, supported by adjustments in shipping capacity to the US and sustained demand from ASEAN[8] - However, potential pressures on exports are anticipated in the second half of the year due to changes in US tariff policies and the expiration of exemptions on certain goods[8]

Market Overview - On June 10, the three major stock indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index declining by 0.16% [1] Guest Opinions - Guotai Junan Securities' investment advisor Wang Chen believes that the overall market risk is controllable, and a short-term upward trend is expected. A key upward breakthrough may require the activation of heavyweight sectors [2] - Dongfang Securities' investment advisor Ying Fang suggests that investors focus on specific sectors that have undergone sufficient adjustments, while also considering taking profits in sectors with long-term potential [2] - Jinyuan Securities' chief investment advisor Xu Chuanbao holds an optimistic view of the market, recommending that investors seize structural opportunities and select quality stocks for medium to long-term investment [2] Brokerage Insights - CITIC Securities reports a slight decline in export growth, with May's export growth rate dropping by 3.3 percentage points to 4.8%, slightly below market expectations. The report highlights strong export growth to non-US markets and the significant contribution of the semiconductor and automotive industries to exports [5][6] - Huatai Securities indicates that AI applications are expected to see rapid growth in areas where data processes are standardized and ROI is quantifiable. The commercialization of AI is accelerating, particularly in ToC scenarios like gaming and e-commerce, while ToB applications in marketing and sales are moving towards large-scale implementation [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Research indicates that since Trump's second term began, the imposition of tariffs has exceeded market expectations in both pace and rates, leading to significant adjustments in macroeconomic forecasts [1][2]. Group 1: Export Growth - The annual export growth forecast has been lowered to 0% due to high tariffs, although some products exported to the U.S. may still show resilience. Approximately 26.5% of products exported to the U.S. have a price advantage under current tariff levels, and 31.3% of products have a dependency of over 50% on China [2]. Group 2: Retail Sales Growth - The annual growth rate for social retail sales has been increased to 4.6%. This adjustment is driven by a series of consumption-promoting policies aimed at countering the risks of declining external demand, including trade-in programs and expanded inbound consumption [2]. Group 3: PPI Forecast - The annual Producer Price Index (PPI) forecast has been lowered. The U.S. tariff policy casts a shadow over global economic growth, affecting international commodity prices. Additionally, industrial products with high dependency on U.S. exports may face downward price pressure [2]. Group 4: Economic Resilience - Despite the uncertainties surrounding tariffs, the advantages of a large domestic market and a well-established industrial chain are expected to effectively mitigate the risks associated with declining external demand, showcasing the resilience of the economy throughout the year [1][2].