同日，据中国基金报，瑞典央行宣布维持政策利率在 1.75% 不变，符合市场预期。无独有 偶，当日挪威央行宣布将政策利率维持在 4% 不变。 值得注意的是，欧洲央行将于北京时间21:15公布利率决议，市场预计欧洲央行将维持基准利 率不变。 （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 来源丨财联社、新华财经、公开信息 编辑丨曾静娇 康师傅换帅，创始人43岁儿子接棒，去年薪酬约937万 存储迎史上最强涨价周期，两大牛股年内涨近400% 贵州茅台出资10亿入股省级银行 SFC 21君荐读 10年期英国国债收益率从之前的4.449%升至4.492%。英镑兑美元汇率从之前的1.3353升至盘 中高点1.3394。 此外，交易员下调对英国央行的降息押注， 预计明年降息39个基点。 另据新华财经报道，经济学家丹·汉森与安娜·安德拉德预测， 下一次降息或推迟至2026年4月 ，届时利率将降至3.5%，并可能标志着政策立场基本回归中性。 据财联社，12月18日，英国央行将基准利率从4.00%下调至3.75%， 符合市场预期 ，此前该行 暂停了自2024年8月以来每季度降息一次的节奏。 英国央行表示，货 ...

华安期货：12月17日黄金/白银偏强震荡 核心逻辑： 市场展望： 偏强震荡。新的一周关注欧洲及日本央行的利率决议；美国周度初请失业金人数；中国LPR报价等。 中长期，全球央行购金趋势延续、债务问题冲击货币信用等因素仍为贵金属提供支撑。短期，美联储如期降息后，国际金银价 格高位波动加大。 白银，金融属性增加及供需前景向好带来支撑，但年内涨幅较大也累积一定的风险。黄金进入盘整，继续关注12月多个主要经 济体利率决议，长期看全球经济前景。 ...

Group A: ETF Holdings - Since November, there has been a significant divergence in ETF holdings, with 14 instances of increases and 10 instances of decreases over two months. Increases tend to occur in dense clusters, while decreases are sporadic [3][5] - The total inventory and changes in holdings for various assets, including gold and other commodities, indicate a fluctuating market sentiment, with notable increases and decreases in value [4] Group B: Speculative Sentiment Report - The speculative sentiment report has stabilized around a 50-50 split, indicating clear market preferences between bullish and bearish positions. There is a lack of strong bullish positions, with frequent downward pressures observed [6][8] Group C: Fundamental Analysis Interest Rate Decision - The December interest rate decision is expected to reflect a dovish rate cut alongside hawkish commentary, with projections indicating potential rate cuts in 2026 and 2027. However, skepticism exists regarding the likelihood of these cuts occurring, especially with the impending departure of the current Fed Chair [9][10] - Market sentiment suggests that the focus will remain on the actual outcomes of Fed policies rather than the motivations of its officials [10] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions are influencing market dynamics, particularly regarding negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine. Disagreements over territorial issues remain significant, impacting market stability [11] Non-Farm Payroll Analysis - Recent employment data shows improvement, but rising unemployment rates raise concerns about the authenticity of the data. The market is expected to focus more on unemployment rates moving forward [12][14] Group D: December Layout - Following a triangle breakout, the market is showing signs of upward momentum, with a focus on previous highs during the upcoming non-farm payroll report. The outcome of this report will be crucial for determining market direction [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Milan is likely to remain in his position until a new appointee is confirmed, amidst President Trump's considerations for a successor to Chairman Powell, who will step down in May [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - Milan plans to stay on the board while Trump is expected to nominate a new chairman who supports aggressive rate cuts [1] - Trump has indicated that a decision on the chairman's nominee may come early next year [1] - Milan's future stance on interest rate decisions will depend on subsequent policy actions by officials [1]

美联储理事米兰表示，他很可能在明年1月底任期届满后继续留任，直到新任理事获得确认填补他的空 缺。米兰计划继续留在理事会之际，正值特朗普考虑人选以接替将于5月卸任的美联储主席鲍威尔。由 于鲍威尔尚未表明是否会在主席任期结束后辞去理事职务，特朗普预计将利用米兰的席位，将其提名的 主席人选安排进理事会。特朗普暗示可能在明年年初前作出主席人选决定，并明确表示只会选择支持其 大幅降息主张的人选。米兰周一表示："在其他人被确认接替我的席位之前，我预计会继续担任该职 务。"不过米兰称，他未来是否会继续就利率决议提出异议，将取决于官员们后续的政策行动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks led to a significant increase in spot gold prices [1][3][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75%, with three officials dissenting [5]. - The FOMC's statement highlighted downward risks to employment and persistent inflation pressures, indicating high uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [5]. - The "dot plot" from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggests that most members anticipate the federal funds rate to be around 3.4% next year, implying a potential further rate cut of 25 basis points [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Spot gold closed up by $20.20 at $4228.47 per ounce following the Fed's decision and Powell's comments [2]. - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell by 0.6% to 98.65, marking the largest single-day decline since September 16, which positively impacted gold prices [4]. - U.S. Treasury yields also dropped significantly, with the 10-year benchmark yield falling by 3.5 basis points to 4.155%, supporting gold's upward movement [4]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts noted that gold traders reacted positively to the Fed's outcome, with gold reaching its highest price of the day after a period of profit-taking [4]. - Technical analysis indicates that gold's upward trend may continue, with potential targets of $4300 per ounce and historical highs of $4381 per ounce if it breaks through [8]. - If gold prices fall below $4200 per ounce, the next support levels are identified at approximately $4153 (20-day SMA) and $4090 (50-day SMA) [10].

今日焦点 挪威即将发布区域经济调查报告。我们预计该报告将证实经济增长仍以温和步伐持续提升，产能利用率基本持平，并表明当前经济活动水平略低于正常水 平。具体而言，我们预计受访者将预测下季度增长0.3-0.4%，产能利用率维持在35%不变，面临劳动力短缺的企业比例将从25%降至24%。 瑞典将公布11月通胀最终数据。初步数据表现低于预期：CPI同比涨幅0.3%，CPIF同比涨幅2.3%，CPIF（不含能源）同比涨幅2.4%。鉴于初步估算通常具有 可靠性，数据大幅修正的可能性较低。深入分析细节以探究意外波动背后的因素将颇具意义，特别是需厘清低位表现究竟源于季节性波动还是其他深层原 因。 央行动态方面，焦点转向瑞士央行，我们预测其利率将维持在0.00%不变。土耳其央行亦将公布利率决议。 昨日要闻 美国联邦储备委员会昨晚如市场普遍预期，将政策利率目标下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%。米兰投票支持更大规模的50个基点降息，施密德和古尔斯比则持 反对意见主张维持利率不变，这与我们的预期一致。我们（及市场）原预期鲍威尔将反驳市场对2026年进一步降息的定价预期。然而，他在记者会上回避强 硬的前瞻指引，导致美国国债收益率 ...

12月11日(周四)在昨日周三欧盘时段，欧元兑美元先拉升后回落，最终在1.1635附近窄幅震荡，整体上 涨动能有限。投资者在等待美联储当日货币政策决议之际，普遍持观望态度，不愿对美元走势进行大规 模押注。 欧元区政治层面传来潜在利空。法国虽通过重要的社会保障预算法案，但法案推进过程中遭遇的阻力， 预示2026年国家预算法案恐难顺利通过。这意味着，法国的财政风险在2026年仍将对欧元构成压制。 技术面来看，欧元兑美元双底形态显现，市场明确拒绝1.1623-1.1618支撑区间。若价格从此区间启动上 涨，初步目标看向1.1664附近的关键阻力位。 若汇价跌破1.1618且企稳于该水平下方，将释放明确看跌信号。相反，若突破1.1664则是积极看涨信 号。此外，汇价若站上1.1650，从下降趋势线回归分析角度，将脱离当前上升形态。 随着纽约时段美联储政策会议临近，欧元兑美元波动料将加剧，大概率呈现区间震荡格局。 要不要我帮你整理这份分析里的**关键支撑阻力位和多空信号对照表**？ 市场正聚焦美联储本次利率决议。若美联储延续宽松基调，美元大概率走弱，欧元兑美元有望打开上行 空间，甚至开启新一轮上涨行情。需警惕美联储意外 ...

美联储12月利率决议声明发布前，标普大致持平，道指涨0.34%，纳指跌0.37%，银行指数涨1.15%。美 元指数跌0.29%，暂报98.95点；美元兑日元跌0.31%，欧元兑美元涨0.28%，英镑兑美元涨0.32%，澳元 兑美元持平。现货黄金跌0.29%，暂报4195.92美元；现货白银跌0.36%，报60.42美元。美国10年期国债 收益率跌2.34个基点，暂报4.1644%，持稳于日低4.1566%附近；两年期美债收益率跌2.67个基点，暂报 3.5859%，也持稳于日低3.5817%附近。 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-12-10 关注中国11月通胀数据和美联储利率决议 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进 一步促进消费政策措施。11月24日，国家发展改革委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。11月28 日，工信部组织召开动力和储能电池行业制造业企业座谈会，强调认真落实党中央关于综合整治"内卷式"竞争的 决策部署，加快推出针对性政策举措，依法依规治理动力和储能电池产业非理性竞争。数据方面，中国10月出口 （以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口" 和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，国内经济基础有待夯实。中国11 月官方制造业PMI环比回升至49.2，高技术制造业PMI连续10个月位于临界点50以上，受高基数影响非制造业PMI 小幅回落。中国11月外贸增速大幅回升，以美元计价出口同比转增5.9%，进口同比增1.9%；稀土出口环比增长26.5%， 大豆进口环比降14.5%。中共中央政治局会议明确指出，明年经 ...