Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Tuesday saw short - term weakness and long - term strength in the Treasury bond market. The central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading is expected to inject stable liquidity, boosting bond market sentiment. The positive progress in Sino - US trade talks has reduced market disturbances. The market anticipates that the central bank will mainly purchase medium - and short - term bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially long - term rates as well. However, the potential suppression of long - term rates due to the recovery of risk appetite should be watched out for. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.660，环比0%；成交量66835，环比增加933。TF主力收盘价106.030，环比 - 0.01%；成交量50509，环比减少2173。TS主力收盘价102.498，环比 - 0.01%；成交量19329，环比减少5311。TL主力收盘价116.520，环比0.03%；成交量86971，环比减少11856 [2]. 3.2 Futures Spread - TL2512 - 2603价差0.25，环比增加0.01；T12 - TL12价差 - 7.86，环比减少0.03。T2512 - 2603价差0.26，环比减少0.01；TF12 - T12价差 - 2.63，环比不变。TF2512 - 2603价差0.05，环比减少0.01；TS12 - T12价差 - 6.16，环比不变。TS2512 - 2603价差0.04，环比增加0.00；TS12 - TF12价差 - 3.53，环比不变 [2]. 3.3 Futures Position - T主力持仓量240832，环比减少3036；T前20名多头234667，环比增加2353；T前20名空头253814，环比增加2422；T前20名净空仓19147，环比减少1488。TF主力持仓量149798；TF前20名多头139385，环比减少45；TF前20名空头160251，环比增加10；TF前20名净空仓20866，环比增加55。TS主力持仓量70457，环比减少709；TS前20名多头64962，环比减少540；TS前20名空头74541，环比减少8；TS前20名净空仓9579，环比增加532。TL主力持仓量134287，环比减少3487；TL前20名多头133484，环比减少884；TL前20名空头151049，环比减少1420；TL前20名净空仓17565，环比减少536 [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 220017.IB(4y）净价106.7266，环比减少0.0192；220019.IB(4y）净价99.0955，环比减少0.0190。250003.IB(4y）净价99.6713，环比减少0.0117；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，环比减少0.0202。250017.IB(1.7y)净价100.0353，环比减少0.0110；250012.IB(2y)净价100.0453，环比减少0.0160。210005.IB(17y)净价131.5531，环比增加0.0439；210014.IB(18y)净价127.8009，环比减少0.0022 [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y收益率1.3850%，环比增加0.50bp；3y收益率1.4175%，环比增加0.75bp；5y收益率1.5350%，环比增加0.50bp；7y收益率1.6395%，环比增加0.95bp；10y收益率1.7900%，环比减少0.25bp [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.3066%，环比增加0.66bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.3150%，环比减少0.10bp。银质押7天利率1.4058%，环比减少2.42bp；Shibor7天利率1.4150%，环比增加0.30bp。银质押14天利率1.4400%，环比减少1.00bp；Shibor14天利率1.4780%，环比增加0.90bp [2]. 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y LPR为3.00%，环比不变；5y LPR为3.5%，环比不变 [2]. 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模1175亿，环比减少3578亿；到期规模4753亿；利率1.4%，期限7天 [2]. 3.9 Industry News - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The composite PMI output index was 50%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. - The US Treasury Secretary said that if China continues to block rare - earth exports, the US may impose additional tariffs on China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways, while threats and pressure do not help solve problems. - The Ministry of Finance updated its official website, listing the Debt Management Department under the "Ministry Agencies". The department is responsible for formulating and implementing government domestic debt management systems and policies, etc. [2]. 3.10 Key Points to Watch - On November 5th at 21:15, the US ADP employment figures for October will be released. - On November 6th at 22:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest - rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, aligning with market expectations, while signaling that further rate cuts are not guaranteed [4][10][14] - The report notes that Japan's core CPI has risen, with Tokyo's CPI increasing by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating potential inflationary pressures that may prompt the Bank of Japan to consider rate hikes [15][34] - The European Central Bank has maintained its key refinancing rate at 2.15%, suggesting that the rate-cutting cycle in the Eurozone is likely over, with a high probability of maintaining current rates in December [15][29] Group 2 - Key economic indicators show that the U.S. fiscal deficit rate has decreased, with September fiscal revenue at $543.7 billion and a projected fiscal deficit of $1.775 trillion for the fiscal year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% [20][21] - The report indicates that the Eurozone's GDP for Q3 has shown a better-than-expected performance, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.2% and a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [26][27] - In Japan, industrial production has rebounded, with a 2.2% month-on-month increase in the industrial production index, signaling a recovery in economic activity [35]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the over - increase, there may be a correction. It is recommended to consider taking profits on long positions when the price rises to a high level in November and maintain the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [1][79]. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In October, the overall trend of the Shanghai aluminum market was a high - opening after the holiday, followed by a decline and then a gradual strengthening. After the double - festivals, the external precious metals and non - ferrous metals performed well, and aluminum followed the upward trend. However, due to a series of events such as China's export control on rare earths, anti - monopoly investigations, and tariff announcements, the aluminum price fluctuated. Later, with positive factors like the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan summary, Fed rate cuts, and Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the aluminum price gradually strengthened [5][6]. 2. Macro and Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Overseas Macro Indicators**: The Federal Reserve has had a series of interest rate decisions including rate cuts and rate holds in 2024 - 2025, and an expected rate cut in December 2025. The European Central Bank has also adjusted its interest rates, with multiple rate cuts and rate holds. A series of macro - economic data such as the US federal funds rate, PCE price index, and euro - zone HICP are presented [12][14]. - **Domestic Macro Indicators**: Domestic GDP growth, social financing scale, PMI, exchange rates, CPI, PPI, and other data are shown. In September, China's exports and imports increased significantly year - on - year. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a series of consensus, and the external tariff environment is temporarily stable. It is expected that exports will strengthen month - on - month in November [19][25]. 3. Aluminum Raw Materials - **Domestic Bauxite**: The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening. Due to strengthened safety supervision and environmental inspections in Shanxi and Henan, combined with the rainy season, bauxite mining activities are restricted. Although the price of domestic bauxite is firm, it will face pressure with the increase in imported bauxite after the end of the rainy season in Guinea [28]. - **Imported Bauxite**: In September 2025, the import volume of bauxite decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Guinea is the largest supplier. After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the bauxite supply is expected to increase, and the price of imported bauxite is expected to decline [31]. 4. Alumina - At the end of October, the built - in production capacity of alumina remained unchanged month - on - month, while the operating capacity decreased. The domestic spot weighted index of alumina declined. Newly - put - into - production capacity in the first half of the year has entered a stable production state, but some small - scale and high - cost alumina enterprises in inland areas are facing losses and production cuts. In November, alumina is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and one can try to go long lightly near 2700 or sell out - of - the - money put options [34]. 5. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Production Capacity**: As of the end of October, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged month - on - month, and the operating capacity decreased slightly. The decrease was mainly due to the technical transformation of some electrolytic cells in Shanxi Shuozhou Energy. The remaining new production capacity expected to be put into operation this year is 110,000 tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase slightly in November, but the new production capacity is very limited [38]. - **Imports**: In September 2025, the import volume of primary aluminum increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Russia and Indonesia are the main suppliers. In October, the loss of aluminum imports widened. In November, the London aluminum is expected to correct after over - increase, and the import of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The main costs of electrolytic aluminum are electricity, alumina, and pre - baked anodes. In October, the average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 14,980 yuan/ton, mainly due to the decline in alumina prices [43]. 6. Downstream Demand for Aluminum - **Automobile**: In September, automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the export of automobiles reached a new high. With the implementation of the 69 - billion - yuan special treasury bond for consumer goods replacement and the peak season of automobile production and sales, the demand for aluminum in the automobile industry is expected to continue to grow [51]. - **Real Estate**: From January to September, real estate development investment, construction area, new construction area, and other indicators declined year - on - year. Although some cities have introduced real - estate relaxation policies, the market is still weak, and this weak trend is expected to continue in November [55]. - **Infrastructure**: In September, the issuance of new local bonds decreased. The issuance progress of new local special bonds in the first nine months was relatively fast, which is expected to drive infrastructure investment. However, the high proportion of special bonds used for debt repayment will have a squeezing effect on infrastructure investment. Although the growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down recently, power grid investment has increased significantly, and the future demand for aluminum in infrastructure is still optimistic [58]. - **Home Appliances**: In September, the production and sales of home appliances were stable, and the export performance was stronger than the seasonal average. However, the production schedule of the three major white - goods in November decreased month - on - month, and the demand for aluminum in the home - appliance industry is expected to decrease [61]. - **Photovoltaic**: In September, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. With the release of provincial mechanism electricity prices and the start of some centralized photovoltaic projects, the photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to continue to improve at a low level in November [66]. - **Aluminum Products Export**: In September, the export of aluminum products decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import of aluminum products also decreased. In November, the London aluminum is expected to correct after over - increase, and the net export of aluminum products is expected to decline month - on - month [69]. 7. Inventory - The inventory depletion in October was satisfactory [70].

Group 1 - The Bank of England is expected to maintain interest rates at 4% during the upcoming meeting on November 7, breaking a pattern of rate cuts that has persisted since August 2024 [1][5] - The decision comes amid inflation rates nearly double the 2% target and in anticipation of the autumn budget announcement on November 26 [1][5] - If the Bank of England holds rates steady, it will contrast sharply with the Federal Reserve's recent policy easing [1][5] Group 2 - Despite the pause in rate cuts, there is speculation that this may be temporary, with traders increasing bets on a potential rate cut in December, with probabilities nearing 60% [5] - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has indicated uncertainty regarding the timing of future rate cuts, especially with the upcoming budget announcement [5] - Economists suggest that the Bank of England is unlikely to cut rates again until there is a clear downward trend in inflation data, potentially not until April next year [5]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is trading in a range below 0.6550, currently at 0.6545, with a slight increase of 0.02% as investors await the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate decision [1] - Australian economic data shows positive signals, with September building approvals rising significantly by 12.0%, surpassing the market expectation of 5.0%, and household spending increasing by 0.2% month-on-month and 5.1% year-on-year [1] - The TD-MI inflation indicator rose by 0.3% month-on-month in October, slightly down from 0.4% in September, while the year-on-year inflation rate increased from 3.0% to 3.1% [1] Group 2 - China's manufacturing PMI decreased from 51.2 in September to 50.6 in October, below the market expectation of 50.9, indicating potential impacts on the AUD due to the close trade relationship between China and Australia [2] - The market widely expects the RBA to maintain interest rates unchanged after three previous cuts, as overall inflation remains within the target range of 2%-3% [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD exchange rate has maintained an upward trend since October 17, but requires new catalysts for a significant breakthrough [3] - Current trading range for AUD/USD is between 0.6538 and 0.6491, with support levels at 0.6440 and 0.6415, and resistance levels at 0.6630 and 0.6707 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - **Precious Metals**: The fundamental drivers for precious metals mainly come from the Fed's expected interest rate cut but sending hawkish signals, which boosts risk - aversion sentiment due to policy uncertainties. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East continuously strengthen the safe - haven attribute of gold. The strong gold investment demand globally in Q3 (a 47% year - on - year increase) and the support from the RMB - denominated advantage and the recovery of domestic physical demand lead to a "strong domestic, weak overseas" pattern [3]. - **Copper**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, the copper market saw a decline in both volume and price. The spot premium showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding, but the increase was limited. If the spot market trading volume does not increase, the futures price may remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term [17]. - **Aluminum**: The tariff negotiation results led to a night - session increase in Shanghai aluminum. With macro events gradually settled, the market is in a news vacuum, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and prices are falling. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum and strong support at the bottom [37]. - **Zinc**: In November, the TC of zinc decreased significantly due to intense competition for mines in the smelting sector, the lack of price advantage of overseas mines, and limited domestic mine increments. The smelting sector's willingness to cut or stop production increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Low inventory supports prices, and there is an upward driving force in November [60]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new regulations on nickel ore quotas in 2026 are stricter. The price increase of nickel ore has slowed down, and the market circulation is tight. The price of nickel - iron and chrome - iron has declined, weakening the cost support for stainless steel. Stainless steel is in the off - season, and downstream demand is weak [76]. - **Tin**: Fundamentally, Yunnan's tin production has declined, and concentrate imports have dropped sharply. Supply is weaker than demand. In the short term, it is difficult to solve supply - side disturbances, and Shanghai tin is expected to remain strong, with support around 276,000 yuan [91]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are continuously and significantly decreasing. Before the end of the year, the demand of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase month - on - month, which may drive spot procurement demand and support the futures price [105]. - **Silicon**: For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, enterprise production cuts are expected to increase, and the price center may move up slightly, but the price increase is limited due to high inventory. The polysilicon spot market is cold, with a production - cut expectation, and the fundamentals are weak [116]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold price, and related price ratios and spreads are presented in multiple charts [4][6][9]. - **Driving Factors**: Fed's interest rate policy, geopolitical risks, global central bank gold purchases, and investment demand are the main driving factors for the precious metals market [3]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper and London copper futures are provided. The prices of Shanghai copper futures have declined, and the London copper price has also decreased [18]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of different copper sources have declined, and the spot premium has shown a trend of bottoming out and rebounding [23]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper and international copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory data are given, with some changes in inventory quantities [33][35]. Aluminum - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures are provided. Shanghai aluminum prices have increased slightly, while alumina prices have decreased [38]. - **Spread Data**: Various spreads between different aluminum and alumina contracts are presented, with some spreads showing significant changes [40][42]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum inventory data are given, with changes in inventory quantities [54]. Zinc - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc futures are provided. Both prices have declined [61]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of different zinc grades have increased slightly, and LME zinc spreads have decreased [69]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc inventory data are given, with changes in inventory quantities [73]. Nickel - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures are provided. Prices have declined [77]. - **Downstream Data**: Nickel - related downstream product prices, such as stainless steel, have also declined, and the cost support for stainless steel has weakened [76]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt inventory data are presented [82]. Tin - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin and LME tin futures are provided. Shanghai tin prices have increased slightly, while LME tin prices have decreased [92]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin and LME tin inventory data are given, with inventory decreases [100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures are provided. Some contracts have shown price increases [106]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of different lithium - related products have changed, with some price increases [110]. - **Inventory Data**: Warehouse receipt inventory and social inventory data of lithium carbonate are given, with inventory decreases [114]. Silicon - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures are provided. Prices have declined [118]. - **Downstream Data**: Prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are presented, showing different trends [125][126][127]. - **Inventory Data**: Inventory data of industrial silicon and polysilicon are given, with polysilicon inventory at a relatively high level [136][144].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, leading to a slight increase in spot gold prices followed by a retreat, indicating minimal volatility in the market [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by over 4 basis points during the day, with short-term fluctuations around 2 basis points [1] - The S&P 500 index saw its gains slightly expand to over 0.2%, but later the increase narrowed [1] - Bitcoin experienced a minor increase before its daily decline slightly widened [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current market for gold and silver is experiencing significant volatility, with gold prices having dropped sharply from historical highs, while silver shows signs of stabilization and potential recovery [1][2][3]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold has seen a decline of nearly $500 from its historical high of $4382, reaching a low of $3886 before showing signs of a rebound [2][3]. - The market is currently in a correction phase, with a focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which is expected to result in a rate cut [2][5]. - Key price levels to watch include resistance around $4000 and support at $3886, with a small triangle pattern indicating potential breakout opportunities [3][5]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices have stabilized after a decline, finding support around $45.5 and showing a bullish reversal with a hammer candlestick formation [6][8]. - The market sentiment suggests a cautious approach, with recommendations to reduce positions above $47.5 in anticipation of Federal Reserve announcements [6][8].

Group 1 - The U.S. EIA will release crude oil inventory changes for the week ending October 24, with a previous decrease of 961,000 barrels. A continued decline in this data could support an increase in crude oil and related commodity futures prices [1] - The Federal Reserve FOMC is expected to announce a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate during its meeting on October 30, followed by a press conference by Chairman Powell [2] - The European Central Bank is anticipated to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged during its meeting on October 30, with a press conference by President Lagarde following the announcement [3] Group 2 - The Eurozone's preliminary GDP for Q3 is expected to show a seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rate of 0.1% and an annual growth rate of 1.2%. A slight decrease from the previous annual rate could mildly suppress the rise in commodity futures prices, excluding gold and silver [4] - The U.S. is set to release its preliminary GDP for Q3, with expectations of a 3% annualized quarterly growth rate, down from the previous 3.8% [5] Group 3 - China will announce the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for October on October 31, with expectations of a manufacturing PMI of 49.6 (previously 49.8) and a non-manufacturing PMI of 49.8 (previously 50). A slight decline in both PMIs could mildly suppress commodity and stock index futures prices but support government bond futures [6] - The U.S. will release the PCE price index for September, with expectations of a year-on-year rate of 2.7% (unchanged from the previous value) and a core PCE year-on-year rate of 2.9% (also unchanged). A slight decrease in the year-on-year rates but a slight increase in the month-on-month rate could strengthen market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in November [7]

Group 1: Gold Market - The gold market experienced a significant decline last week, with spot gold closing down $138.26, a drop of 3.25%, ending at $4,112.65 [1] - Currently, gold is trading around $4,036, indicating continued downward pressure [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with a recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "AA" to "AA-" by Scope Ratings due to deteriorating public finances and governance standards [6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4% during its meeting on October 28-29 [9] - There is uncertainty regarding the release of inflation data next month due to a government shutdown, which could complicate the Fed's decision-making process [10] Group 3: International Relations and Conflicts - Pakistan's defense minister warned of "full-scale war" if no agreement is reached during talks with Afghanistan in Istanbul [14] - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, with Russia targeting Ukrainian defense and energy infrastructure, leading to temporary power outages in Ukraine [16] - A joint statement from multiple Western nations, including Canada and the EU, emphasized support for Ukraine and the need for a ceasefire [17]