Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut, while expected, has led to cautious signals that dampen market optimism for continued easing in the future [5][6]. Market Reactions - The Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 1.1%, reaching an intraday high, while popular Chinese stocks in the U.S. market experienced declines, with JD.com, Pinduoduo, Li Auto, Baidu, and Alibaba down by 1%, Xpeng down by 2%, and Bilibili and NIO down by 3% [2][5]. - European stocks saw gains, with the German DAX index increasing by 1%, the UK FTSE 100 opening up by 0.21%, the French CAC40 rising by 0.41%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.64% [5]. Federal Reserve's Policy Signals - The Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points signals a response to a weakening labor market and persistent inflation, indicating a gradual approach rather than a shift to aggressive easing [6]. - The dot plot from Fed officials suggests two more rate cuts this year, but only one by 2026, contrasting with traders' expectations of two to three cuts next year [5]. Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 2 basis points to 4.057% [5]. - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.05% to 96.98, while spot gold rose by 0.15% to 3665.13 [7].

Group 1 - The Bank of Canada announced a 25 basis point reduction in the policy interest rate to 2.50% on September 17, 2023, in response to rising unemployment and inflation nearing 2% [1][2] - The Canadian economy showed signs of slowing growth, with a projected 1.5% decline in real GDP for Q2, significantly impacted by tariffs and trade uncertainties [2] - The unemployment rate increased to 7.1% in August, with job losses concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, reflecting weakened hiring intentions among businesses [2][3] Group 2 - The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate was reported at 1.9%, with core inflation indicators around 3%, indicating a potential easing of price pressures due to the recent removal of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports [3] - The Bank of Canada aims to balance risks in a weakening economy with low inflationary pressures, focusing on maintaining public confidence in price stability while supporting economic growth [3]

每经编辑｜金冥羽 据央视新闻，加拿大银行（央行）当地时间9月17日宣布，将政策利率降低25个基点至2.50%。 此前一天，加拿大统计局公布的数据显示，8月份消费者价格指数同比增长至1.9%，表明通胀率正在接近2%，为央行调整利率提供了窗口。同时，受美国 关税影响，加拿大失业率也在升高。多重因素之下，加拿大银行做出降息决定。 值得一提的是，北京时间9月18日凌晨2点，美联储FOMC将公布利率决议结果和经济预期。凌晨2点30分鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。 8月CPI通胀为1.9%，与7月MPR时相同；若剔除税项，通胀为2.4%。央行偏好的核心通胀指标近月大约在3%，但从环比动能看，年内早些时候的上行趋 势已消退。更广泛的一揽子指标——包括替代性核心通胀度量与CPI各分项价格变动的分布——仍显示潜在通胀大约在2.5%。加拿大政府近期决定取消大 部分针对从美国进口商品的报复性关税，意味着相关商品未来的上行价格压力将有所减轻。 在经济走弱且通胀上行风险较小的背景下，管理委员会认为下调政策利率更有助于在前景中更好地平衡风险。展望未来，贸易格局变化带来的扰动效应在 拖累经济活动的同时，仍将增加成本。管理委员会将谨慎推进，特别关 ...

智通财经9月17日讯（编辑 赵昊）周三（9月17日）美股盘前，三大指数期货涨跌不一。 截至发稿，道琼斯指数期货涨0.17%，标普500指数期货涨0.02%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.01%。 个股方面，特斯拉、英伟达盘前跌超1%；与此同时，明星中概股整体走强，百度涨8.6%，阿里巴巴涨2.5%，拼多多、蔚来涨近3%。 前一交易日，美股三大股指在震荡交投中收低，投资者在美联储利率决议前保持谨慎。北京时间周四凌晨02:00，该行将公布利率决议；半小时后，鲍威尔 将出席记者会。 芝商所"美联储观察"工具显示，市场预计美联储本次降息25个基点的概率高达94%，另外的6%则是降息50个基点。前一天，美国财长贝森特就指出，25个 基点的降息已被市场消化。 Pimco前首席经济学家Paul McCulley表示，最有可能的结果是较为保守的降息25个基点，"因为我不知道当前情况下该如何解释降息50个基点，而且这不是 鲍威尔主席想要传达的信息。" 值得一提的是，美联储还会在公布决议时发布利率预测"点阵图"，给未来的利率行动提供指引。发稿前不久，白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗说，当前利率至少比正常 水平高了100个基点。 正在交易的欧洲股 ...

C o o k 获 准 留 任 但 投 票 立 场 成 谜 来源 | 华尔街大事件 在美联储本周关键利率决议前夕，两项人事变动为高度紧张的市场增添了戏剧性。 据央视报道，当地时间9月15日，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦上诉法院驳回了美国司法部的紧急申请，维持了下级法院暂时阻止特朗普撤换Lisa Cook的禁令。 这意味着Cook将能够参加本周的美联储会议。 几乎在同一时间，据央视新闻，参议院以48票对47票的微弱优势，通过了对Stephen Miran出任美联储理事会成员的提名。在共和党的快速推动 下，Miran预计将于周二上午履新，可能也正好赶上本周的美联储会议。 白宫支持的候选人成功入主美联储理事会，而一位面临总统解雇压力的现任理事则通过法庭裁决保住了投票权，这使得一场关于央行独立性的 政治角力，直接延伸到了联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的决策桌上，让本已备受关注的利率决议更添变数。 虽然市场普遍预期美联储将降息25个基点，但两位立场截然不同的投票委员的加入，让最终结果变得难以预测。 甚至有分析认为，FOMC可能出现罕见的"四方混战"局面，对市场预期构成重大挑战。 Cook的留任为此次会议增添了最大的不确定性。上 ...

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee (INR) has strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth consecutive trading day, reaching a two-week high of approximately 87.90, driven by positive statements from Indian Prime Minister Modi and US President Trump regarding bilateral relations and the Ukraine situation [1] - The positive sentiment was bolstered by a recent meeting between US and Indian trade representatives in New Delhi, indicating a potential thaw in trade relations that had previously been strained due to tariff increases on Indian oil imports from Russia [1] - Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) have significantly reduced their stock sell-off in India, with total sales amounting to 10,204.54 billion INR since September, compared to much higher figures of 47,666.68 billion INR and 46,902.92 billion INR in July and August respectively [1] Group 2 - The overall weakness of the US Dollar has also contributed to the strengthening of the Rupee, with the Dollar Index (DXY) dropping to a two-month low of 96.70, as market expectations lean towards a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3] - There is a 96% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with some analysts predicting three rate cuts by 2025 [3] - The USD/INR exchange rate has shown signs of uncertainty, with support around 87.65 and resistance at 88.65, indicating a mixed short-term trend [4]

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, matching July's figure and significantly exceeding market expectations of 0.2%, leading to a short-term drop in spot gold prices below $3,690 before recovering and briefly surpassing $3,700 [2] - Geopolitical tensions are rising as Russia warns NATO against shooting down its drones over Ukraine, which could escalate into a state of war [2] - Analysts believe gold remains resilient against short-term negative data, maintaining a high position while awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend with support at $3,680 and resistance at $3,720 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The American Petroleum Institute reported a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.42 million barrels for the week ending September 12, compared to an increase of 1.25 million barrels previously, indicating strong recent consumption [4] - The geopolitical situation is tense, with reports of Russian military actions against Ukrainian forces, which may support rising oil prices [4][5] - The combination of escalating geopolitical tensions and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is expected to boost domestic investment and increase oil consumption [5] - Technical analysis shows oil prices consolidating in the $61.50 to $65.50 range, with support at $64.10 and resistance at $65.50 [5] Group 3: Nasdaq and U.S. Dollar Index - The Nasdaq index experienced a decline, with a bearish daily close, while the hourly trend shows a slowdown in upward momentum [7] - The U.S. Dollar Index fell below the 97 mark, maintaining a downward trend, with support at 96.30 and potential further declines following the interest rate decision [8]

Group 1 - The current gold market is influenced by geopolitical factors and the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, leading to a bullish trend in gold prices, with significant increases observed on Monday and Tuesday [2][4] - Gold prices have recently surpassed the 3700 mark for the first time, indicating a strong upward trend, although the market is expected to experience fluctuations and pullbacks, providing opportunities for buying [2][4] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, which is expected to have a substantial impact on both gold and silver markets, necessitating careful risk management [2][4] Group 2 - The trading strategy for the Asian and European sessions is to focus on buying during pullbacks, with key support levels identified at 3685 and 3675, while aiming for targets around 3710 and potentially 3750 [4][5] - The market sentiment suggests that after the Federal Reserve's decision, there may be a significant downward adjustment in gold prices, with a critical support level at 3620 to watch for potential changes in the current bullish trend [5][6] - In the silver market, a bullish outlook is maintained, with a focus on buying near the 42 support level, while caution is advised against chasing prices higher due to potential volatility [6][7] Group 3 - The oil market has shown positive momentum, with recent price increases reaching around 64.5, and further upward potential is anticipated, with key resistance levels at 66 [7] - Domestic fuel prices have also risen, with targets set at 2850 and 3000, indicating a continued bullish trend, although caution against chasing prices is advised [7]

Core Viewpoint - A significant global monetary policy shift is anticipated as multiple central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, prepare to announce interest rate decisions within a short timeframe, impacting global capital flows and financial markets [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and U.S. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is particularly noteworthy due to recent personnel changes, including the confirmation of Stephen Milan as a board member, which may influence the decision-making process [2]. - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points, with a possibility of a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points, depending on the voting inclinations of newly confirmed members [2][3]. - Analysts predict a more dovish outlook in the Fed's dot plot, with guidance suggesting 2 to 3 rate cuts in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Other Central Banks' Actions - The Bank of Canada is expected to follow the Fed's lead and implement a rate cut due to concerns over economic growth [3]. - The Bank of England is anticipated to maintain its current rate at 4%, following a previous cut of 25 basis points, which was narrowly approved [3]. - The Bank of Japan is likely to hold its rates steady but is under pressure to signal future rate hikes due to ongoing inflation concerns [3]. Group 3: Global Rate Cuts - Several countries have already initiated rate cuts ahead of the Fed, including Peru, which reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% due to easing inflation pressures [4]. - Turkey's central bank cut its rate by 250 basis points to 40.5%, exceeding market expectations, while Russia lowered its rate by 100 basis points to 17% [4]. - These actions indicate a broader trend of monetary easing globally, potentially influenced by the Fed's decisions [4]. Group 4: Implications for Emerging Markets - The Fed's potential rate cuts may create room for adjustments in monetary policy among emerging market central banks, although the specific actions will depend on each country's economic fundamentals [5]. - Emerging markets face unique challenges, including currency depreciation pressures and capital outflow risks, which will influence their policy responses to the Fed's actions [5].

美联储：斯蒂芬·米兰在联邦公开市场委员会会议前宣誓就任美联储理事。🗒️美联储官网同时更新了成员名单，显示米兰在列。 https://t.co/h2dYeHLeJE外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普提名的经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）以48比47的参议院投票票数，获批进入美联储理事会，即将与其他11名票委共同参与美联储本周的利率决议。 ...