Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced an upward trend, with the S&P 500 increasing by 1% on Wednesday, while the Dow rose by 0.84% to 46,657.52 and the NASDAQ climbed 1.19% to 22,788.69 [1] - Real estate shares saw a notable increase of 1.7%, and health care stocks rose by 0.4% on the same day [1] Company Financials - Bank of America reported a net income of $8.5 billion for Q3 fiscal 2025, up from $6.9 billion a year ago, with an EPS of $1.06, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $0.94 [2] - The bank's revenue, net of interest expense, increased by 11% year-over-year to $28.24 billion, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $27.50 billion [2] Commodity Market - Oil prices increased by 0.4% to $58.96, while gold rose by 1.3% to $4,217.50 [5] - Silver traded up 1.6% to $51.410, whereas copper experienced a slight decline of 0.1% to $5.0225 [5] Stock Movements - Australian Oilseeds Holdings Limited shares surged by 270% to $3.6200 following comments from President Trump regarding potential business terminations with China [8] - Genprex, Inc. saw its shares increase by 173% to $0.6910 due to upcoming presentations at a major cancer therapeutics conference [8] - Omeros Corporation's shares rose by 144% to $10.02 after Novo Nordisk acquired its global rights to Zaltenibart [8] - Conversely, Yueda Digital Holding shares plummeted by 84% to $0.2259 after announcing a $28 million registered direct offering [8] - Largo Inc. shares fell by 45% to $1.39 following the announcement of a $23.4 million registered direct offering and private placement [8] - Aqua Metals, Inc. shares decreased by 37% to $18.72 after raising $13 million from an institutional investor [8] International Markets - European shares were generally higher, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 rising by 0.6% and France's CAC 40 surging by 2.2% [6] - Asian markets closed positively, with Japan's Nikkei 225 increasing by 1.76% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index jumping by 1.84% [9] Economic Indicators - The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index rose by 19.4 points to a reading of 10.7 in October, surpassing market expectations of -1.0 [10]

Group 1: Oil Market - WTI crude oil has dropped to $58.7 per barrel, the lowest price since May, while Brent crude is around $62 [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day in global oil supply compared to demand next year, marking an unprecedented overproduction [3] - Trade tensions have led to decreased demand expectations for oil, causing further price declines [3] - Major oil executives from companies like Trafigura and Gunvor predict that oil prices are likely to continue falling, with gasoline and diesel demand potentially peaking [3] Group 2: Base Metals - Base metals are experiencing a collective decline, with LME copper down 2.24%, aluminum and nickel also falling, and zinc hitting a nearly eight-month low with a 2.63% drop [3] - The decline in metal prices is attributed to weak industrial demand and uncertainty in trade relations, leading to reduced factory orders for raw materials [3] Group 3: Gold Market - COMEX gold has risen by 0.73% to $4,138.7 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of interest rate cuts [4] - The ongoing trade tensions have prompted investors to convert cash into gold for protection, while lower interest rates make non-yielding gold more attractive [4] - Long-term forecasts suggest that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce, supported by continued buying from ETFs and central banks [4]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The global ETF gold holdings have significantly increased, with a net inflow of 146 tons year-to-date, marking the largest single-month increase since March 2022. The North American market contributed the majority of this increase, reflecting concerns over U.S. economic risks, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - The oil market is under pressure due to global risk asset sell-offs, despite OPEC's October meeting aligning with expectations for a slight reduction in production increases. Brent crude oil is expected to find support at around $60 per barrel [1][4] - The copper market is experiencing supply-side risks, particularly due to a Freeport incident leading to a supply-demand imbalance. Long-term fundamentals remain positive, with expectations of a copper shortage from 2025 to 2026 [1][6] Key Points on Specific Markets Gold Market - The rise in gold prices since September is primarily driven by safe-haven demand rather than expectations of interest rate cuts. The increase in ETF holdings in non-U.S. regions, especially Asia, is noteworthy [1][5] Oil Market - OPEC's recent actions included accelerating production cuts from April to September, with Saudi Arabia increasing production by approximately 1 million barrels. However, the market is expected to face downward pressure due to seasonal declines in downstream consumption and rising U.S. inventories [1][3][4] Pork Market - The pork market has seen a significant decline in prices, with a 15% drop in 2025 attributed to increased supply during peak seasons without a corresponding rise in demand. Future developments in the pork cycle will depend on supply-demand balance, policy adjustments, and breeding costs [1][7][8] - For October to November, pork prices are expected to continue declining, with planned slaughter volumes increasing by 5.5% and high slaughter weights maintained [1][9] - The medium-term outlook suggests that pork prices will not rebound significantly from Q4 2025 to H1 2026 due to ongoing supply pressures from increasing piglet numbers and policy measures affecting supply dynamics [1][10] - Long-term projections for H2 2026 indicate a target of 39 million breeding sows, with current losses in breeding profits accelerating the culling process. However, any significant capacity reduction in the near term may provide some price rebound opportunities [1][11] Additional Insights - The copper market is expected to remain in a state of shortage from 2025 to 2026, with favorable long-term fundamentals supporting price increases despite short-term market risk preferences [1][6] - The current futures market shows the 11 contract at a balanced state, indicating some supply pressure has been alleviated, while potential opportunities exist in the 09 contract due to deep losses in the 11 contract [1][12]

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: October 13, 2025 - Report Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market closed up 0.46% last week, with precious metals leading the gain at 2.47%, non - ferrous and black metals rising 1.93% and 1.41% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemical products fell 0.47% and 1.63% respectively. Due to the re - intensification of the Sino - US trade situation, the commodity market may be under pressure in the short term [2]. - The US government shutdown, economic data uncertainty, inflation resilience, dovish statements from Fed officials, and central bank gold purchases support precious metals, which may fluctuate strongly in the short term. Non - ferrous metals may be under pressure due to trade tensions despite supply disturbances. Black metals are likely to face pressure with weak demand and increasing external trade frictions. Energy prices may oscillate weakly due to inventory increases and geopolitical factors. Chemical products may be affected by trade frictions and oil price drops. Agricultural products may face supply shortages if the trade war persists [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 0.46% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 2.47%, non - ferrous and black metals rose 1.93% and 1.41% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemical products fell 0.47% and 1.63% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased significantly, and all sectors had net capital outflows [2]. - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Tin, copper, and coking coal led the gains with increases of 4.1%, 3.37%, and 3.11% respectively. Pigs, eggs, and crude oil had larger declines of 8.38%, 7.64%, and 3.71% respectively [2]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: The losses from the US government shutdown, economic data uncertainty, inflation resilience, dovish Fed statements, and central bank gold purchases support precious metals. With the rising risk of the Sino - US trade war, the sector may oscillate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Supply disturbances made the sector perform strongly during the holiday, but the re - intensification of the Sino - US trade situation led to large declines in previously strong varieties. Supply remains tight, but terminal consumption has slowed, and inventories are accumulating. The sector may be under pressure in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: During the long holiday, the apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly, production decreased slightly, and inventories increased sharply. With high - level molten iron, weakening steel mill profitability, and increasing external trade frictions, the sector may face pressure in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: International oil prices declined around the National Day holiday. The EIA report showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and geopolitical factors may have a negative impact on oil prices. Oil prices may oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. - **Chemical Products**: For building materials, trade friction may be unfavorable for PVC exports, and PVC may oscillate weakly. Polyester products may be affected by trade friction and oil price drops, facing cost collapse and weak demand [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Possible US tariff increases may affect domestic soybean supplies in the first and second quarters of next year. If the trade war lasts, the overall supply may tighten in the first quarter of next year. Oils and fats may be under pressure due to the decline in crude oil prices and the uncertainty caused by the US government shutdown [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Precious Metal ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 2.94% - 2.99%. The total net asset value of gold ETFs was 1,773.72 billion yuan, with a 1.66% increase. The total net asset value of all commodity ETFs was 1,853.72 billion yuan, with a 1.83% increase [38]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical futures ETF had a - 1.28% return, the feed soybean meal futures ETF had a - 0.29% return, the non - ferrous metal futures ETF had a 3.26% return, and the silver futures (LOF) had a 2.61% return [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, due to unplanned production cuts in some styrene plants and maintenance plans from September to October, the supply of styrene has shrunk. Driven by peak - season demand in the downstream EPS/PS industries, overall operations have slightly improved, raw material procurement has followed up, and demand support has strengthened. However, although port inventories continue the downward trend from high levels, the current inventory level may still limit the upside potential of prices. Additionally, attention should be paid to the potential impact of macro - policies and geopolitical factors on the commodity market. The strategy is to take a short - term low - buying approach for EB10, and pay attention to the pressure around 7200; widen the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at low levels [2]. - Recently, the restart of some pure benzene plants has led to a month - on - month increase in production, and the supply side remains at a relatively high level. The demand side is sluggish, with unplanned production cuts in some styrene plants and a general weakening of the operating rates in other downstream industries. The supply - demand pattern of pure benzene remains loose, and the pre - holiday stocking demand has not been significantly released, resulting in weak overall market drivers. In the short term, price trends may be easily affected by geopolitical and macro factors. The strategy is for BZ2603 to fluctuate in tandem with styrene [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (November) on September 17 was $67.95, down $0.52 (-0.8%) from September 16; WTI crude oil (October) was $64.05, down $0.47 (-0.7%); CFR Japan naphtha was $600, up $4 (0.7%); CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $850, unchanged; CFR China pure benzene was $742, up $1 (0.1%); the spread between pure benzene and naphtha was 133, down 3 (-2.2%); the spread between ethylene and naphtha was 241, down 4 (-1.6%); the listed price of pure benzene by Sinopec East China was 5900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5980 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.1%); BZ futures 2603 was 6057 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan (-0.3%); the BZ basis (03) was -77, up 21 (-21.4%); the import profit of pure benzene was -90 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (2.2%); the exchange rate (RMB central parity rate) was 7.1013, down 0.0014 (0.0%) [2]. 3.2 Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot price of styrene in East China on September 17 was 7180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.1%); EB futures 2510 was 7138 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-0.3%); EB futures 2511 was 7152 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan (-0.3%); the EB basis (10) was 42, up 10 (31.3%); EB10 - EB11 was -14, up 4 (-22.2%); the non - integrated EB cash flow was -142 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (10.6%); the integrated EB cash flow was -334 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan (16.5%); the EB - BZ spot spread was 1200 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (-1.2%); EB03 - BZ03 was 1169 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan (5.2%); EB10 - BZ03 was 1081 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan (-0.4%); CFR China styrene was $888/ton, down $1 (-0.1%); the EB import profit was -168 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan (0.2%) [2]. 3.3 Cash Flows of Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream - The cash flow of phenol on September 17 was -392 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan (-12.2%); the cash flow of caprolactam (single product) was -1830 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan (4.6%); the cash flow of aniline was 220 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan (26.3%); the Eb2 cash flow was 70 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (16.7%); the PS cash flow was -180 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan (-21.7%); another cash flow was -201 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (-6.1%); no information was provided for ABS cash flow [2]. 3.4 Inventories of Pure Benzene and Styrene (Weekly, Longzhong) - On September 15, the inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 13.40 million tons, down 1.00 million tons (-6.9%) from September 8; the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 15.90 million tons, down 1.75 million tons (-9.9%) [2]. 3.5 Changes in the Operating Rates of the Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain (Weekly, Longzhong, Huarui) - The Asian pure benzene operating rate (Huarui) on September 11 was 79.0%, up 1.1% (1.4%) from September 4; the domestic pure benzene operating rate was 79.3%, down 0.1% (-0.1%); the domestic hydro - benzene operating rate was 54.6%, up 4.8% (9.6%); the phenol operating rate was 68.9%, down 6.3% (-8.4%); the caprolactam operating rate was 86.3%, down 4.2% (-4.6%); the aniline operating rate was 65.5%, down 2.5% (-3.7%); the styrene operating rate was 75.0%, down 4.7% (-5.9%); the downstream PS operating rate was 61.9%, up 0.9% (1.5%); the downstream EPS operating rate was 61.0%, up 8.5% (16.2%); the downstream ABS operating rate was 70.0%, up 1.0% (1.4%) [2].

Core Insights - The recent report from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council highlights a significant decline in coffee exports to the U.S., with imports dropping to 301,000 bags in August, a 46% decrease year-over-year and a 26% decrease month-over-month [2][3] - Germany has overtaken the U.S. as the largest importer of Brazilian coffee, importing 414,000 bags in the same month [2] - The U.S. has imposed high tariffs on Brazilian coffee since early August, which has been identified as the primary reason for the sharp decline in exports to the U.S. market [2][3] Market Reactions - The international coffee market reacted strongly, with Arabica coffee futures prices rising by 29.7% from $2.978 per pound to $3.861 per pound between August 7 and August 31 [2] - Concerns over supply shortages have been exacerbated by the U.S. tariff policy, leading to increased futures prices [2] Industry Position - Brazil remains the largest coffee exporter globally, accounting for approximately one-third of total coffee exports [3] - The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council, established in 1999, represents over 100 member companies and covers about 96% of coffee agents in Brazil, making its reports significant indicators of global coffee trade trends [3]

Group 1: Economic Overview - Chile is referred to as the "long sock of South America" due to its elongated geography, stretching 4,352 kilometers north to south but only 97 kilometers at its narrowest point [1] - Chile's GDP per capita is projected to be approximately $17,000 in 2024, making it the highest in Latin America and a high-income country [1] - The country's economy is primarily supported by four key industries: copper mining, fruit exports, wine production, and fishing [1] Group 2: Copper Industry - Chile holds the world's largest proven copper reserves, accounting for over 30% of the global total, with reserves exceeding 200 million tons [1][2] - The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) forecasts that copper prices will adjust to a range of $3.90 to $4.00 per pound in 2025, but will stabilize above $4.00 per pound in the long term [3] - The short-term price decline is attributed to supply-side challenges, including aging mines and water resource shortages, which affect copper production capacity [4] Group 3: Fruit Exports - Chile is the world's largest exporter of cherries, with an expected export volume of 60,000 tons in the 2024/2025 season, representing 55% of global cherry exports [5] - The country produces approximately 50,200 tons of cherries in the 2023/2024 season, ranking fourth globally [5] Group 4: Wine Production - Chile ranks second in South America and seventh globally in wine production, with an annual output of 1.1 to 1.2 billion liters [6] - Approximately 75% of Chile's wine production is exported, with over 800 million liters expected to be shipped globally in 2023 and 2024 [6] Group 5: Fishing Industry - Chile has a coastline exceeding 10,000 kilometers, providing rich fishing resources [8] - The export of Chilean salmon to China has surged, with total export value surpassing that of lithium, making it the second-largest export product after copper [8] Group 6: Industry Development - Chile has focused on extending its industrial chain and promoting green transformation in traditional industries [8] - The country is optimizing its export policies and expanding into emerging markets, particularly in China [8]

Group 1: Glass Futures Market Overview - The glass futures market showed a strong performance with the main contract opening at 1141.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 1195.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 4.85% [1] - The overall glass supply is stable with production and operating rates increasing, while demand remains weak, particularly in the real estate sector [1] - Profit margins for glass manufacturers have slightly increased, but overall demand is expected to remain steady without significant growth [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A recovery in the operating rate was noted with one production line resuming operations, although the weekly production remained flat [1] - Inventory levels have slightly increased due to slower shipments from manufacturers, indicating a weak market performance [1] - Future market performance will depend on seasonal demand and capacity constraint policies [1] Group 3: Macro Environment and Market Sentiment - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may enhance domestic policy flexibility, providing overall support for the commodity market [2] - The upcoming peak season is expected to influence market sentiment, suggesting that excessive bearish outlooks may not be warranted [2] - Short-term expectations for glass futures indicate a continued oscillating trend [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current macroeconomic situation and its impact on the commodity market, emphasizing the importance of industry confidence and transformation for harmonious development [1]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by various challenges and opportunities that affect the commodity market dynamics [1]. - Industry confidence plays a crucial role in navigating the complexities of the current economic landscape [1]. Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - The article highlights the significance of understanding market trends and the influence of macroeconomic factors on commodity prices [1]. - It suggests that a strategic approach to commodity trading can lead to better outcomes in the face of economic fluctuations [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market may fluctuate in the short - term due to weak Sino - US economic data. The oil and fat sector may be relatively strong, while the precious metals sector may adjust with fluctuations. Each sub - sector has different trends based on their own fundamentals and macro - economic factors [1]. - The non - ferrous sector may face pressure due to weak Sino - US economic data and low demand during the off - season. The black sector may fluctuate, with attention on the limit - production intensity near the military parade. The energy sector may see oil prices fluctuate weakly, and the chemical sector has different trends for different products [2]. - The agricultural sector has different trends for different products. The oil and fat sector may fluctuate strongly, while the rapeseed sector may face pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The commodity market rose slightly by 0.52% last week, with agricultural products leading the rise at 1.25%. Non - ferrous and energy - chemical sectors rose by 0.99% and 0.59% respectively, while precious metals and black sectors fell by 1.23% and 0.27% respectively [1][5]. - The top - gainers were palm oil (5.11%), soda ash (4.73%), and cotton (2.32%), and the top - losers were fuel oil (2.71%), methanol (2.55%), and eggs (2.3%) [1]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market decreased slightly, with the agricultural and black sectors showing an upward trend in volatility. The overall market scale decreased slightly, and the out - flowing funds were mainly concentrated in the precious metals sector [1]. Sector Outlook - **Precious Metals**: The sector declined significantly last week. With the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, it may adjust with fluctuations in the short - term [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Sino - US economic data is weak, and the demand is at a low level during the off - season. The sector may face pressure in the short - term [2]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, and inventory accumulation accelerated. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term, with attention on the limit - production intensity near the military parade [2]. - **Energy**: The market's expectation of a loose supply - demand relationship is strengthened, and the oil price may fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. - **Chemical Industry**: The terminal demand for polyester products is expected to rebound, and the valuation of PX is improving. The glass price is supported by cost, while soda ash may face pressure [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA August report is positive for US soybeans. The oil and fat sector may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, while the rapeseed sector may face pressure [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs had an overall decline of 1.28%, and the total commodity ETFs had a decline of 0.51%. Different commodity ETFs had different performance in terms of net value, yield, scale, share change, and trading volume [38].