1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to expect a weak and oscillating market [2][4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market is currently facing high inventory levels among manufacturers. The recovery of glass production and sales has fallen short of expectations, and the middle - stream is under significant pressure to reduce inventory. The 09 contract of glass is expected to remain weak, with support levels at 990 - 1000 [2][3]. - The real - estate market data shows a year - on - year decline, while the automotive market has seen year - on - year growth in production and sales. The supply of soda ash is increasing, and its futures price is expected to remain weak [2][46][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is a weak and oscillating market. The main reasons include the impact of the Qinghai Salt Lake incident on the supply side, subsequent inventory accumulation in glass, a decline in market speculation, high inventory in the middle - stream, and weakening demand from the real - estate market [2]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Spot Price - As of August 15, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,150 yuan/ton in North China (-30), 1,110 yuan/ton in Central China (-80), and 1,220 yuan/ton in East China (-50). The futures price of the glass 01 contract closed at 1,211 yuan/ton last Friday, up 15 for the week [12]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - As of August 15, the price difference between soda ash and glass was 184 yuan/ton (-85). The basis of the glass 01 contract was -171 yuan/ton (-75), and the 09 - 01 spread was -165 yuan/ton (-32) [13]. 3.3 Profit - For the natural - gas production process, the cost was 1,588 yuan/ton (-4), and the gross profit was -368 yuan/ton (-46). For the coal - gas production process, the cost was 1,175 yuan/ton (-5), and the gross profit was -25 yuan/ton (-25). For the petroleum - coke production process, the cost was 1,102 yuan/ton (-4), and the gross profit was 8 yuan/ton (-76) [17][21]. 3.4 Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 158,355 tons/day (unchanged). There were 223 production lines in operation, and there was no change in production lines last week [23]. 3.5 Inventory - As of August 15, the national inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers was 6,342.6 million weight boxes (+157.9). Inventory increased in all regions, with significant increases in North China, Central China, and East China [27][33]. 3.6 Deep - processing - The order days of glass deep - processing increased slightly, showing a situation where the off - season was not as slack as usual. The comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass on August 14 was 91% (+4%), the operating rate of LOW - E glass on August 15 was 47.59% (+0.49%), and the order days of glass deep - processing in mid - August were 9.65 days (+0.1) [37]. 3.7 Demand 3.7.1 Automotive - In July, China's automobile production was 2.591 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 203,000 units and a year - on - year increase of 305,000 units. Sales were 2.593 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 311,000 units and a year - on - year increase of 331,000 units. The retail volume of new - energy passenger cars in July was 987,000 units, with a penetration rate of 54% [46]. 3.7.2 Real - estate - In July, China's real - estate completion area was 24.6739 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 29%. The new construction area was 48.4168 million square meters (-15%), the construction area was 54.0957 million square meters (-16%), and the commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters (-8%). From August 3 to August 10, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.48 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18% and a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The real - estate development investment in July was 692.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [54]. 3.8 Soda Ash 3.8.1 Spot and Futures Prices - As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,350 yuan/ton in North China (-50), 1,275 yuan/ton in East China (-75), 1,325 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1,500 yuan/ton in South China (unchanged). The soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1,395 yuan/ton last Friday (+63) [56][61]. 3.8.2 Cost and Profit - The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,296 yuan/ton (-9), and the gross profit was 34 yuan/ton (-22). The cost of the joint - production process was 1,730 yuan/ton (-60), and the gross profit was 9 yuan/ton (-60) [62][64]. 3.8.3 Production, Inventory, and Consumption - Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 761,300 tons (a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons), including 429,700 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 6,300 tons) and 331,600 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 10,400 tons). The loss was 110,400 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 16,800 tons). As of August 15, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.8938 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 28,700 tons), including 1.1338 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 13,700 tons) and 760,000 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 42,400 tons). The weekly apparent demand for heavy soda ash last week was 443,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 64,700 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 289,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,400 tons. The production - sales ratio of soda ash last week was 96.23% [72][78][86].

Real Estate - Developers are facing significant inventory pressure, with unsold housing area expected to rise from 670 million square meters in 2023 to 750 million square meters by the end of 2024, and further to 798 million square meters by February 2025 [2] - The number of second-hand homes listed for sale is also increasing, with a projected 2.7 million listings across 100 cities by April 2025, marking an 18.6% year-on-year increase [2] - Developers are employing strategies of "visible stability and hidden price drops," with some properties listed at 85,000 yuan per square meter but selling for under 70,000 yuan after discounts [2] - Homeowners are also adjusting prices, with some in Hangzhou reducing their asking prices by 300,000 yuan over four months [2] - For first-time buyers, this period presents a "window of opportunity" as down payments and monthly payments are lower than rental costs, but caution is advised in cities with high inventory and population outflow [2] Automotive - The luxury car market has experienced a significant shift, with traditional brands like BMW, Audi, and Mercedes-Benz drastically reducing prices due to severe overcapacity, with industry utilization rates potentially dropping below 60% [5] - Promotions and discounts are rampant, with prices for models like BMW starting at 150,000 yuan and Audi at 160,000 yuan [5] - Consumers are advised to be cautious of "residual value traps" and to prefer new electric vehicles over older gasoline models [5] Home Appliances - The home appliance market has seen a price drop since the second half of 2024, with reductions ranging from 300 to 500 yuan for common products like TVs and refrigerators [7] - The average price of a 75-inch 4K TV has fallen below 4,000 yuan, a 42% decrease compared to three years ago, while energy-efficient air conditioners are now available for under 2,000 yuan [7] - The price reductions are attributed to rapid technological advancements and high inventory levels, creating a favorable buying opportunity for consumers [7] Pork Industry - The pork market is experiencing a price decline, with average prices dropping to 14 yuan per kilogram in many regions, and some areas seeing prices fall to 10 yuan [9] - Despite the lower prices, industry insiders warn of potential losses, with predictions of a 300 yuan loss per pig sold, leading to possible bankruptcies if conditions do not improve [11] - The government is implementing measures to control production capacity, including reducing the number of breeding sows and managing the weight of pigs being sold [11] General Market Trends - A broader trend of price reductions is observed across various sectors, including luxury goods, fruits, and coffee, indicating a potential economic slowdown [13] - Consumers are encouraged to be mindful of spending and to focus on self-improvement as a long-term investment strategy [16]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity market experienced widespread declines on August 14, with coking coal dropping over 6% and coke falling over 4% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1435.41 points, down 10.06 points or 0.7% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1987.6 points, down 16.05 points or 0.8% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Coking Coal and Coke Market - Coking coal saw a significant drop, with prices falling over 6% after a brief dip of over 7% during the trading session [2] - Supply-side factors such as coal mine production inspections and the implementation of the 276 work system continue to disrupt market sentiment, limiting capacity release [2] - The daily customs clearance at the Mengkou port has recovered to over 1300 vehicles, alleviating some supply pressure [2] Group 3: Multi-Crystalline Silicon Market - Multi-crystalline silicon futures fell over 3%, with market dynamics expected to alternate between fundamental logic and "anti-involution" logic in the second half of the year [3] - Fluctuations in electricity prices will directly impact production costs, affecting the price center of multi-crystalline silicon [3] - The demand side has seen limited growth expectations due to the early consumption of market demand during the first half of the year [3] Group 4: Alkali and LPG Market - Caustic soda was one of the few industrial products to rise, increasing by 1.69% due to limited supply pressure from maintenance and unstarted production lines [4] - The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity decreased by 1 percentage point to 84.1% [4] - LPG prices rose for the fourth consecutive day, supported by a decrease in port arrivals and a recovery in demand from propane deep processing [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jinlongyu, reported significant growth in profitability for the first half of 2025, with a notable increase in net profit and a substantial rise in non-recurring net profit, despite facing challenges in the second quarter and ongoing industry competition [1][11][17]. Financial Performance - Jinlongyu achieved operating revenue of 1156.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.67% [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 17.56 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 60.07% [2][3]. - The non-recurring net profit surged to 13.89 billion yuan, marking a dramatic increase of 764.33% compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 793.97% to 14.63 billion yuan [2][9]. Segment Performance - The kitchen food segment remained the largest revenue contributor, generating 715.51 billion yuan, accounting for 61.85% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 2.69% [3][4]. - The feed raw materials and oil technology segment reported revenue of 431.79 billion yuan, representing 37.32% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 10.81% [3][4]. - Other products generated 9.51 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 0.8% of total revenue, with a growth of 13.56% [3][4]. Profitability and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for the kitchen food segment improved by 0.8 percentage points to 7.66% [5][12]. - The feed raw materials and oil technology segment saw a significant increase in gross margin from 1.01% to 4.26%, a rise of 3.25 percentage points [5][12]. - The overall revenue growth of 5.67% outpaced the cost increase of 3.85%, indicating a positive trend in profitability [12]. Challenges and Market Dynamics - Despite the overall positive performance, the second quarter showed a decline in net profit by over 20% compared to the first quarter, with revenue decreasing by 4.19% [10][11]. - The company noted that the demand for cooking oil in the restaurant industry has slowed, impacting growth [11][17]. - Increased competition in the cooking oil sector has led to higher marketing expenditures and promotional activities, which may constrain profit margins [11][17]. Inventory and Sales Dynamics - The kitchen food segment experienced a significant inventory increase of 19.13%, despite a 4.37% rise in sales volume [12][13]. - The feed raw materials and oil technology segment showed a healthy sales increase of 21.02% with only a moderate inventory growth of 9.33% [12][13]. Future Outlook - The company faces uncertainties regarding its ability to maintain growth momentum in the second half of 2025, particularly due to inventory pressures and competitive market conditions [17]. - Delays in key investment projects may further complicate the company's growth trajectory and ability to optimize cost structures [16][17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, with both supply and demand increasing and a slight reduction in inventory. However, there is significant over - capacity and high inventory pressure. The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate widely following commodities such as coking coal and polysilicon. For polysilicon, short - term downstream product prices are under pressure, and there is a large inventory accumulation pressure. The short - term market may maintain wide fluctuations, but it is suitable for long - term low - level layout [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On August 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price declined. The main contract 2511 opened at 8800 yuan/ton and closed at 8600 yuan/ton, a change of - 305 yuan/ton (- 3.43%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 284,500 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,701 lots, a change of 43 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable [1]. - In August, the number of open furnaces increased in both the southwest and northwest regions. The consumption side saw a significant increase in polysilicon production, while silicone, aluminum alloy, and exports were relatively stable. There was an overall slight reduction in inventory, but the total inventory in the industry was still high, about 940,000 tons, equivalent to about 3 months of consumption [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate widely following commodities such as coking coal and polysilicon. It is recommended to operate within a range for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures declined, closing at 51,290 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.11% from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 132,463 lots, and the trading volume was 395,645 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, while the weekly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers also increased [4]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, the polysilicon market is under pressure, and the market may maintain wide fluctuations. It is recommended to operate within a range for single - side trading. In the long term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low levels. There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6][8].

中信建投期货黑色系研究员赵永均告诉期货日报记者，宏观预期向上，市场风险偏好持续回升，三季度 受雨季影响需求回落明显，但市场对"金九银十"旺季预期强烈，螺纹钢价格稳中有升。回顾今年螺纹钢 市场，高库存、低利润成为最主要的特点。 "进入9月份以来，钢材产量处于历史同期最高水平，但销量与去年基本持平，这也是近期钢材价格回落 的一个重要原因。"赵永均说，分地区来看，西南、华东和华南三地产量同比增幅明显高于其他地区， 并且销售表现羸弱。受唐山限产影响，华北地区产量下降明显，并且近期成交转好，特别是雄安地区， 但销量仍未达到二季度水平，其他地区产销情况比较温和。 分析师告诉期货日报记者，9月是传统的需求旺季，上周期货市场的大跌并没有击垮贸易商的信心，本 周看涨钢材市场的人数增加。虽然钢贸商对后市较为乐观，但其中也有部分人认为目前库存压力仍不容 小视，短期的上涨空间较为有限，预计本周涨幅不足30元/吨。 据有关统计，目前共有产线检修计划12起，涉及11家钢厂、20条以上产线，预计影响成材产量4.615万 吨/天左右。目前共有高炉检修计划7起，涉及7家钢厂、9座高炉，预计影响铁水产量3.68万吨/天左右， 其中正在检修2起， ...

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Ethylene glycol may continue to trade in a narrow range in the short term, constrained by high inventory and coal chemical restarts above, and supported by cost margins below. The market expects the mid - term supply - demand contradiction to ease, but the rebound of near - term contracts is limited. It is recommended to focus on the impact of oil and coal price fluctuations on cost logic [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the ethylene glycol futures main contract rose by 35 yuan/ton to 4457 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China also rose by 35 yuan/ton to 4490 yuan/ton. The basis shrank by 35 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread widened slightly from - 45 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, and the far - month structure remained at a discount [1] - **Position and Volume**: The position of the main contract decreased by 5762 lots to 199,600 lots, while the trading volume increased by 13,300 lots to 94,000 lots, indicating increased short - term capital games and some short - sellers closing their positions [1] - **Supply**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.98 percentage points to 63.28%, with the coal - based operating rate rising by 2.53 percentage points to 58.98%, and the oil - based operating rate remaining at a high of 66.15%. All process routes are in losses, but no large - scale production cuts have occurred, resulting in continuous short - term supply pressure [1] - **Demand**: The load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43% without change. Weak terminal orders led to mainly rigid demand procurement of polyester raw materials, and the demand side lacked upward drivers [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 58,500 tons to 485,700 tons in a single week, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 180,000 tons. The arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, indicating faster unloading at ports but lower shipping efficiency and accumulating explicit inventory pressure [2] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract price of MEG futures rose from 4422 yuan/ton to 4457 yuan/ton, a 0.79% increase. The spot price in the East China market rose from 4455 yuan/ton to 4490 yuan/ton, also a 0.79% increase. The basis decreased from 38 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton, a 92.11% decline [4] - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of MEG widened from - 45 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, a 26.67% increase; the 5 - 9 spread decreased from 83 yuan/ton to 76 yuan/ton, an 8.43% decrease; the 9 - 1 spread decreased from - 38 yuan/ton to - 43 yuan/ton, a 13.16% decrease [4] - **Profits**: The coal - based profit remained at - 314 yuan/ton, with no change [4] - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 1.0 percentage points to 63.3%, the coal - based operating rate increased by 2.5 percentage points to 59.0%, and the oil - based operating rate remained unchanged at 66.2%. The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [4] - **Inventory and Arrivals**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 59,000 tons to 486,000 tons, a 13.69% increase; the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 52,000 tons to 180,000 tons, a 40.62% increase; the arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, a 39.72% decrease [4] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the negotiation price in the East China US dollar market moved up in the morning and remained stable in the afternoon, with no reported transactions. The spot price in the Shaanxi ethylene glycol market remained stable at around 4000 yuan/ton. The price in the South China market increased, but the trading was light. Affected by the US - Russia meeting and weekend polyester sales, the futures market adjusted upwards, and the current negotiation price in East China was around 4485 yuan/ton [5] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory at East China main ports, and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [6][8][10]

Current Gold Price Situation - Domestic gold prices have generally fallen below 1,000 yuan per gram, marking a significant decline after high volatility in the first half of the year [1] - Major brand prices include: - Zhou Shun Fu: 988 yuan/gram (daily drop of approximately 10-16 yuan) - Chow Tai Fook: 1,008 yuan/gram - Lao Miao Gold: 1,004 yuan/gram - Zhou Sheng Sheng: 1,010 yuan/gram [1] International Gold Price Linkage - International spot gold has dropped below 3,300 USD/ounce, with a reported price of 3,292.4 USD on August 1, leading to a domestic gold price decline to 767.2 yuan/gram [2] Reasons for Price Decline - **Policy and Market Sentiment**: The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% on July 30, with no clear indication of a rate cut in September, weakening expectations for monetary easing [3] - **Strengthening Dollar**: The dollar index surged by 1% in a week, putting pressure on dollar-denominated gold [4] - **Decreased Safe-Haven Demand**: A trade agreement between the US and EU has reduced geopolitical risks [5] - **Supply and Demand Changes**: - Jewelry consumption has plummeted by 26% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with high gold prices suppressing demand for weddings and other necessities [6] - Retail inventory pressures have led brands to accelerate turnover through price reductions [7] - **Speculative Retreat**: Rapid prior increases in gold prices prompted a withdrawal of profit-seeking funds, resulting in a technical correction [7] Impact on Consumers and Market - **Consumer Demand**: - For essential buyers (weddings, gifts), it is advisable to purchase during this period but to avoid high-premium products (some brands have processing fees exceeding 200 yuan/gram) [8] - For investors, gold jewelry has lower value retention compared to gold bars or ETFs, with experts recommending a longer investment horizon of 15 years to mitigate short-term volatility [8] - **Industry Transformation**: - Companies are shifting from a focus on "lightweight and low price" to emphasizing design and craftsmanship, introducing high-value products like gold inlaid jade [9] - Some stores are enhancing turnover rates through AI recycling and dynamic pricing [10] Future Trends and Recommendations - **Short-term Forecast**: If the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance or geopolitical conflicts escalate, gold prices may rebound; conversely, if the dollar continues to strengthen, prices could test the support level of 3,250 USD [11] - Domestic gold prices are closely monitored for a critical support level at 700 yuan/gram [12] - **Rational Recommendations**: - Investors should be cautious of short-term fluctuations and prioritize low-premium gold assets (like gold bars) [13] - Consumers with non-urgent needs should consider waiting and look for wholesale markets or promotional activities to reduce costs [14] Market Sentiment Reflection - Most consumers perceive the current price drop as limited, with a psychological price range concentrated between 600-800 yuan/gram, and some users humorously suggesting to wait for a 50% discount, indicating expectations for further declines [15]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Black night trading weakened. In the short - term, steel inventory pressure is not significant, but the off - season demand has low acceptance of high prices. The main contract is approaching the position transfer. It is expected that the high price will fluctuate. Previously, it was recommended to buy on dips, and current long positions can be held. Be cautious about chasing long positions due to limited release of terminal demand [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices decreased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3370 to 3360 yuan/ton, and the spot price of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased from 3470 to 3460 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 6 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.2 to 240.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. The output of five major steel products increased by 1.8 to 869.2 tons, an increase of 0.2%. The rebar output increased by 10.1 to 221.2 tons, an increase of 4.8%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 7.9 to 314.9 tons, a decrease of 2.4% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.5 to 1375.4 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The rebar inventory increased by 10.4 to 556.7 tons, an increase of 1.9%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.7 to 356.6 tons, an increase of 2.5% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.9 to 9.7 tons, a decrease of 8.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.3 to 845.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 7.4 to 210.8 tons, an increase of 3.6%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 13.8 to 306.2 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Last week, the 2509 iron ore contract showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. In the future, the pig iron output in August will remain high, but is expected to decrease slightly to around 236 tons per day on average. Unilateral trading is recommended to buy the 2601 contract on dips, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal 01 and short on iron ore 01 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased from 800.0 to 792.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.0%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 3.5 to - 37.0, an increase of 8.6% [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 267.3 to 2507.8 tons, an increase of 11.9%, and the global shipment volume decreased by 139.1 to 3061.8 tons, a decrease of 4.3%. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8 tons, an increase of 8.0% [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 to 240.3 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 19.1 to 321.9 tons, an increase of 6.3%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5 tons, a decrease of 3.0%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4 tons, a decrease of 3.9% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 28.7 to 13712.27 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 to 9013.3 tons, an increase of 0.0%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, a decrease of 4.8% [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Last week, coke and coking coal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. There is still a possibility of further price increases for coke. For both coke and coking coal, the speculative strategy is to buy the 2601 contract on dips, and the arbitrage strategy is to do 9 - 1 reverse spreads [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1347 yuan/ton. The coke 09 contract decreased by 14 to 1668 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84%. The coking profit of Steel Union decreased by 11 to - 54 yuan/ton [6]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1260 yuan/ton, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 5 to 1139 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4%. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 18 to 1070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.6%. The sample coal mine profit increased by 22 to 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.34% [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.1 tons, an increase of 0.4%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 46.8 tons, a decrease of 0.44%. The raw coal output decreased by 9.7 to 859.0 tons, a decrease of 1.1%, and the clean coal output decreased by 5.1 to 439.0 tons, a decrease of 1.1% [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 to 240.3 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.1 tons, an increase of 0.4%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 46.8 tons, a decrease of 0.49% [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 8.3 to 907.2 tons, a decrease of 0.9%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 6.7 to 112.0 tons, a decrease of 5.7%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.8 to 987.9 tons, a decrease of 0.5% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The market dynamics of DCE soybean meal, live pigs, and US soybean prices are influenced by supply and demand patterns, leading to price fluctuations [1] Group 1: DCE Soybean Meal and Live Pig Contracts - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 decreased by 0.03%, closing at 3023 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton [1] - DCE live pig main contract 2509 fell by 55 CNY/ton, closing at 13885 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.39% [1] - The average price of external three-way live pigs nationwide is 13.88 CNY/kg, stable compared to the previous day [1] Group 2: US Soybean Market - CBOT US soybean main contract increased by 0.66%, closing at 995 cents/bushel [1] - The rebound in US soybean futures prices is driven by short covering and cross-market arbitrage [1] - The USDA report indicates that as of August 3, the good-to-excellent rate for US soybeans is 69%, slightly below the previous week’s 70% but above last year's 68% [1] Group 3: Brazilian Soybean Production - Brazil is expected to have a bumper soybean harvest, with farmers' export profits encouraging new planting intentions [1] - Consulting agencies predict that the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season will increase by 962,000 hectares to 48.6 million hectares [1] - Brazil has raised biofuel blending standards, increasing the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% [1] Group 4: Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic soybean meal M09 maintains a strong trend, with attention on the 3100 CNY level [1] - The main funds are shifting focus to M01 contract, with a temporary resistance level at 3120 CNY due to rising import costs from increased Brazilian price differentials [1] - Despite rising soybean meal spot prices, high oil mill inventories and widespread pressure from traders keep the spot basis low, leading to a subdued market [1] Group 5: Live Pig Supply and Demand - The supply side of live pigs may see a reduction at the beginning of the month, followed by a recovery due to potential weight reduction in slaughtering [1] - A recent meeting on July 23 emphasized implementing capacity control measures, including culling breeding sows and reducing stock [1] - On the demand side, pig supply is sufficient, with some regions experiencing a slight demand recovery, although high temperatures limit pork purchasing willingness [1]