1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the market trends and fundamental data of various energy and chemical products on January 19, 2026, including rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, etc. Each product has a specific trend judgment, such as "oscillating weakly", "high - level oscillation", etc. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rubber - Trend: Oscillating weakly [2][4] - Fundamental data: The day - session closing price of the rubber main contract decreased by 160 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 17,091 lots. The spot - futures basis and the difference between the mixed rubber and the futures main contract increased [4] - Industry news: In the first half of January, the tire industry's start - up rate increased, with semi - steel tires more significantly improved. However, the tire industry's shipment was dull, and inventory increased, especially for all - steel tires [5][6] Synthetic Rubber - Trend: High - level oscillation [2][7] - Fundamental data: The day - session closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract decreased by 375 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased by 13,086 lots. The basis increased by 275 [7] - Industry news: The inventory of butadiene in East China ports and domestic butadiene rubber increased. In the short term, butadiene rubber is in a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern, and the short - term fundamentals of butadiene are slightly bullish [8][9] LLDPE - Trend: The low production of standard products continues, and spot trading weakens [2][10] - Fundamental data: The closing price of L2605 decreased by 1.33%, and the 05 contract basis increased from - 135 to - 95 [10] - Market analysis: The upstream inventory transfer is smooth, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. The raw material price is strong, and the ethylene monomer link is weak. The medium - term supply and demand pressure still exists [10][11] PP - Trend: The monomer prices continue to diverge, and PP cost support is relatively strong [2][13] - Fundamental data: The closing price of PP2605 decreased by 1.46%, and the 05 contract basis increased from - 172 to - 146 [13] - Market analysis: The cost side is strong, and the supply - demand game of existing stocks intensifies. The demand side is weak, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [13][14] Caustic Soda - Trend: Near - term pressure continues [2][16] - Fundamental data: The price of the 03 - contract futures is 2006 yuan/ton, and the basis is 57 [16] - Market analysis: The cost and supply - demand of caustic soda have collapsed, and the near - term pressure is high. The far - term contracts need to be cautious about short - selling [16][17] Pulp - Trend: Oscillating weakly [2][20] - Fundamental data: The day - session closing price of the pulp main contract decreased by 74 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased by 145,287 lots [22] - Industry news: The decline in the futures market has affected the spot price, and the downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the futures market's stop - falling and the downstream's replenishment willingness [23] Glass - Trend: The original sheet price is stable [2][25] - Fundamental data: The closing price of FG605 increased by 1.29%, and the 05 contract basis decreased from - 36 to - 53 [26] - Market analysis: The supply - side pressure is not large, the downstream demand is weak, and export orders support the rigid demand [26] Methanol - Trend: Oscillating [2][28] - Fundamental data: The closing price of the methanol main contract decreased by 34 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 295,829 lots [29] - Market analysis: The methanol market is weak in the short term, and the port inventory is significantly reduced. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upside and downside space [31][32] Urea - Trend: Oscillating and consolidating [2][33] - Fundamental data: The closing price of the urea main contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased by 12,272 lots [34] - Industry news: The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased slightly. In the short term, the price may回调 slightly, but the medium - term is still bullish [35][36] Styrene - Trend: Short - term oscillation [2][37] - Fundamental data: The price of styrene 2602 increased by 75, and the non - integrated profit increased by 61 [37] - Market news: The short - term export of styrene exceeds expectations, and the downstream replenishment cycle has started. The short - term is in high - level oscillation [38] Soda Ash - Trend: The spot market has little change [2][39] - Fundamental data: The closing price of SA2605 decreased by 0.75%, and the 05 contract basis is 8 [40] - Market news: The domestic soda ash market is stable with slight oscillations, the production is at a high level, and the downstream replenishes inventory at low prices. The short - term lacks substantial support [40] LPG and Propylene - Trend: Short - term supply of LPG is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers; the upward driver of propylene weakens after the spot price rises rapidly [2][43] - Fundamental data: The closing prices of LPG and propylene futures contracts have different degrees of decline, and the spot prices also have corresponding changes [43] - Market news: The 2 - month CP paper cargo price of propane decreased, and there are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [48][49] PVC - Trend: Weakly oscillating [2][53] - Fundamental data: The 05 - contract futures price is 4803 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 223 [51] - Market analysis: The PVC market has a high - production, high - inventory structure, and the short - term supply and demand improvement is limited. The short - term做空 of chlor - alkali profit is the core logic [51][52] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Trend: Fuel oil oscillates in a narrow range, and the upward trend pauses; low - sulfur fuel oil rebounds slightly at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [2][54] - Fundamental data: The closing prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts have different degrees of decline, and the spot prices also change slightly [54] Container Freight Index (European Line) - Trend: Weakly oscillating [2][56] - Fundamental data: The closing price of EC2602 increased by 0.50%, and the trading volume is 2,673 [56] - Market news: The freight rates of European and US - West routes have increased, and the future shipping schedule may be dynamically adjusted [56][63] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Trend: Short - fiber is in a short - term oscillation market, and the processing fee runs at a low level; bottle chip is in a short - term oscillation market [2][69] - Fundamental data: The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures contracts have different degrees of decline, and the spot prices also decrease [69] - Market news: The short - fiber futures oscillate at a low level, and the spot price is lowered. The bottle - chip factory lowers the price, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable [69][70] Offset Printing Paper - Trend: Close short positions opportunistically [2][72] - Fundamental data: The prices in the spot market are stable, and the futures prices decline. The basis in the Shandong and Guangdong markets increases [72] - Industry news: The prices in the Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the production is basically stable, and the new orders are limited [73][75] Pure Benzene - Trend: Short - term oscillation [2][77] - Fundamental data: The prices of pure benzene futures contracts increase slightly, and the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increases [77] - News: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu and Chinese ports increases, and the spot price of pure benzene in Shandong and East China decreases [78][79]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 19 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 进口大豆成本，进口到港节 奏，油厂开工节奏，库存压力 豆油 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 美豆成本支撑，美国生物燃 料政策，美豆油库存，国内 大豆成本支撑，供应节奏， 油厂库存 棕榈 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The macroeconomic environment shows that the US December CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7% [3][18] - Domestic copper concentrate prices remain at historical lows, maintaining tight supply conditions, which is a strong support factor for the market [4][19] - January's estimated electrolytic copper production is 1.1636 million tons, a 1.2% month-on-month decrease but a 14.7% year-on-year increase due to tight copper concentrate supply [4][19] - The net import of refined copper in November decreased by 58.16% year-on-year to 161,700 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 5.87% month-on-month to 208,100 tons [4][19] - As of January 16, global visible copper inventories increased by 76,000 tons to 1.037 million tons, with LME and Comex inventories also rising [4][20] - Market sentiment is influenced by precious metals, with copper prices showing strength initially but concerns over domestic policy impacts and seasonal demand weakening consumption [5][20] - The overall market outlook for copper remains bullish with a recommendation to buy on dips, but caution against excessive buying is advised [6][20] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - January's refined nickel production is expected to increase by 18.5% month-on-month to 37,200 tons, while Chinese nickel pig iron production is projected to decrease by 1% [7][21] - Demand in the new energy sector is weakening, with a decline in the production of ternary precursor materials and a drop in terminal sales of new energy vehicles [7][21] - LME nickel inventories increased by 942 tons to 285,732 tons, indicating a slight build-up in stock [7][21] - Indonesia is adjusting its nickel quotas to support local prices, which may provide some price support in the short term, but overall market sentiment remains weak [7][21] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Alumina futures are experiencing a weak trend, with prices dropping by 3.2% week-on-week, while aluminum and aluminum alloy prices also show declines [8][22] - The operating rate for alumina has increased slightly, while electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to rise, indicating a mixed supply outlook [8][22] - Downstream industries are preparing for the upcoming Spring Festival, leading to increased processing rates in some sectors, but overall demand recovery is limited [9][22] - Inventory levels for alumina and aluminum are rising, suggesting a potential oversupply situation in the near term [9][24] Group 4: Silicon and Polysilicon Market - Industrial silicon futures are showing a weak trend, with production decreasing week-on-week, while polysilicon prices are also under pressure [11][25] - The supply of industrial silicon is tightening due to reduced operating rates and closures in some regions, while demand remains subdued [11][25] - Inventory levels for both industrial silicon and polysilicon are increasing, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [11][26] - The market is shifting focus from speculative trading to fundamental analysis, with expectations of limited price recovery in the short term [11][26] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate Market - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 70 tons to 22,605 tons, with varying trends in different lithium sources [14][27] - Demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate is declining, with significant drops in both retail and wholesale sales of new energy vehicles [14][27] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 263 tons, but overall market sentiment remains pressured due to weak demand [14][28] - The market is experiencing fluctuations in prices due to funding disturbances, with a recommendation to monitor inventory turnover and demand trends closely [14][28]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, showing a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, meaning a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] Core Viewpoints - The short-term upside potential of oil prices is limited unless conflicts materialize, and the supply surplus remains the main factor restricting the upside space of oil prices [3] - Geopolitical risks will continue to support the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and the high-sulfur cracking spread may remain strong, while the fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continue to be weak [4] - The impact of the Iranian situation on crude oil is significantly stronger than that on asphalt, and the upward driving force of asphalt is limited after the cost increase has been priced in [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - EIA's latest weekly data shows a surprising increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories [3] - Oil prices rebounded under the influence of concerns about the U.S. attack on Iran but then plunged after Trump's statement, and the short-term upside space is limited [3] - In Q1 2026, the global crude oil supply-demand structure shows significant inventory pressure, and the supply surplus restricts the upside space of oil prices [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Overnight, fuel oil prices rose sharply due to the escalation of the Iranian situation, and the gains were partially reversed today [4] - Geopolitical risks continue to disrupt the market, and the export disruption of Iran and the slowdown of Russian shipments may tighten the Asian supply [4] - Geopolitical risk premiums are expected to support the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and the high-sulfur cracking spread may remain strong, while the fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continue to be weak [4] Asphalt - The Iranian geopolitical situation has a stronger impact on crude oil than on asphalt, and the BU cracking spread has declined from its high [5] - Kpler data predicts that the arrivals in January will still be sufficient, and the upward driving force is limited after the cost increase has been priced in [5] - Attention should be paid to the arrivals of Venezuelan crude oil in the future [5]

Oil Market - The latest EIA weekly data shows an unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, indicating significant inventory pressure and a supply surplus that limits the short-term upward potential of oil prices [1] - Oil prices initially rebounded to nearly $67 per barrel due to concerns over US-Iran tensions, but retreated after President Trump indicated a wait-and-see approach regarding the situation in Iran [1] - The global crude oil supply-demand structure for Q1 2026 suggests that unless conflicts escalate, the short-term upside for oil prices is expected to be limited [1] Precious Metals - The US reported a 3% increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for November, the highest since July, and retail sales rose by 0.6%, slightly above expectations, indicating a strong economic backdrop for precious metals [2] - The geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran continue to support the overall strength of precious metals [2] Copper Market - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on geopolitical risks and the impact of tariffs on trade [3] - The current spot premium for copper has narrowed to $44, indicating market adjustments as traders await inventory updates [3] Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is seeing high volatility, with prices testing historical highs but facing challenges from speculative trading and high inventory levels [4] - The profit margin for aluminum production remains above 8000 yuan per ton, prompting producers to consider hedging strategies [4] Zinc Market - The zinc market is witnessing increased capital inflow, leading to heightened bullish sentiment, although high prices are negatively impacting consumption [7] - Zinc prices have recovered all losses from 2025, but there is growing pressure for a price correction, with a focus on support levels around 23,000 yuan per ton [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing active trading, with upstream lithium salt producers shifting sales strategies towards more spot sales [11] - Total market inventory has increased by 300 tons to 110,000 tons, while downstream inventory has decreased, indicating a mixed supply-demand dynamic [11] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is facing weak supply and demand dynamics, with production cuts in northern regions and reduced demand from the organic silicon sector [12] - Current prices for industrial silicon are stable, but the market outlook remains cautious due to ongoing production adjustments [12] Steel Market - The steel market is showing slight price increases, but demand remains weak, particularly in the real estate sector, leading to cautious market sentiment [14] - Steel production is gradually recovering, but overall demand from downstream industries continues to decline [14] Iron Ore Market - The iron ore market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with increased domestic port inventories and a seasonal decline in demand [15] - The market sentiment is mixed, with structural imbalances persisting and expectations for continued price volatility [15] Fertilizer Market - The urea market is seeing strong price increases driven by improved factory orders and seasonal demand ahead of spring [23] - The methanol market is also showing strength due to geopolitical tensions, although signs of weakening demand are emerging [24] Agricultural Products - The soybean market is under pressure from high import volumes and increased domestic processing rates, with expectations for continued weak price movements [35] - The corn market is experiencing strong fluctuations, with low overall inventory levels and increased demand from downstream users as the Spring Festival approaches [39] Livestock Market - The live pig market is seeing upward price movements, with expectations for continued pressure on supply as the Spring Festival approaches [40] - The egg market is showing signs of strength due to reduced supply and increased demand ahead of the holiday season [41]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: January 12, 2026 [1] - Report cycle: Daily [1] - Research variety: Palm oil [1] - Researcher: You Zhenqi (Qualification No.: F3012673; Investment consulting certificate No.: Z0012990) [1] Group 2: Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract P2605 was 8,724 yuan/ton, up 0.93% from the previous trading day. The opening price was 8,630 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8,748 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8,574 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 512,074 lots, and the trading volume was 44.339 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Spot Market - The basis was -74.00 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was -0.86%, continuing the contango structure [4] Group 4: Influencing Factors - Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory was 2.34 million tons (data as of December 31, 2025), and the high inventory suppressed price increases. The national commercial inventory of palm oil was 765,000 tons (as of January 7, 2026), and the inventory in East China was 335,000 tons, and the inventory pressure remained. The spot price was lower than the futures price, and the basis remained negative, reflecting the market's expectation of loose future supply [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - It is expected to fluctuate in a range in the short term. Supported by a technical rebound in the short term, but the upside space is restricted by high inventory and import replenishment pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in Malaysia's production and the rhythm of domestic imports [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical risks continue to support crude oil prices, and the chemical industry is over - valued, so it should be treated with a volatile mindset. The industry may continue to fluctuate strongly, but it is not recommended to chase more [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and attention should be paid to risks in Iran. The supply pressure persists, but the geopolitical premium fluctuates. The price of oil will continue to fluctuate under the balance of oversupply and frequent geopolitical disruptions. Short - term focus is on the risk of price surges related to Iranian geopolitics [4][7]. - **Logic**: Expectations of increased sanctions by the US on Russia or Iran fuel supply concerns, and the situation in Iran is highly uncertain. The US - Venezuela crude oil trade may increase, and there may be a potential impact of Venezuelan sanctioned oil on the compliant oil market. Geopolitical prospects in Russia - Ukraine, Iran, and Venezuela are the core factors affecting crude oil supply expectations [7]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. Supply pressure continues, but the geopolitical premium is unstable, so it should be viewed as volatile in the short term [4][7][8]. 3.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price is oscillating in an over - valued range [4]. - **Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in Q1. The US is cooperating with Venezuela to receive its oil, and partial sanctions on Venezuela are lifted. This supports asphalt costs but may lead to sufficient supply in the long - term. Hainan's asphalt production has increased significantly, and the supply - demand situation is weak with inventory accumulation and reduced demand [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating downward. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and its medium - to long - term valuation is expected to decline [9]. 3.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The price of high - sulfur fuel oil futures has declined due to the pressure from Venezuelan heavy oil [4]. - **Logic**: OPEC+ suspends production increases in Q1. Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US, increasing heavy - oil supply. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region, and its substitution by natural gas and photovoltaic energy [9]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The expected increase in Venezuelan oil production will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, but short - term support comes from the US - Iran conflict [11]. 3.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures is oscillating upward [4]. - **Logic**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. There are some supporting factors, but it also faces challenges such as reduced shipping demand, substitution by green energy, and high - sulfur fuel substitution. Its valuation is low and it is expected to follow crude oil price movements [12]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. It is affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand, but its current low valuation means it will fluctuate with crude oil [12]. 3.5 Methanol - **View**: Methanol is expected to be stable with a weakening trend, as inventory pressure is significant and MTO demand is weak [4]. - **Logic**: The domestic supply is relatively abundant, while downstream demand is weak. Port inventory is high, and there are plans for some MTO plants to shut down, which may further weaken demand [28]. - **Outlook**: Weakening in the short term [28]. 3.6 Urea - **View**: The actual trading volume has slowed down, and urea is oscillating and consolidating [4]. - **Logic**: The supply remains at a high level of around 200,000 tons per day, while the procurement from traders and compound fertilizer factories has slowed down, resulting in a lack of trading enthusiasm [29]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. Without a significant change in fundamentals, the market is closely related to order transactions. It may be stable with a weakening trend in the short term [29]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The arrival of foreign vessels is concentrated, and inventory tank capacity is tight [4]. - **Logic**: The recent arrival of a large number of vessels has led to a significant increase in inventory, causing the spot basis to weaken and reducing traders' willingness to hold goods [20][22]. - **Outlook**: The price will be range - bound in the short term, and the long - term inventory pressure is still large, so the rebound height is limited [22]. 3.8 PX - **View**: The loosening of polyester demand exerts pressure on upstream raw materials [4]. - **Logic**: International oil prices are rising, and naphtha prices are increasing due to cost factors. Although PTA demand provides some support, the supply from domestic and foreign PX plants is increasing. The short - term PX profit is adjusting downward from a high level [13]. - **Outlook**: The PX price is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support around 7000 - 7100 yuan/ton. The profit decline is limited [13]. 3.9 PTA - **View**: There are concentrated reports of polyester production cuts, putting pressure on the basis and processing fees [4]. - **Logic**: The upstream cost still provides some support, and the PTA supply - demand situation is currently stable. However, the concentrated production cuts in the downstream polyester industry may lead to a weaker basis and limited processing fee space [14]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate with costs. In the medium term, consider going long on the TA05 contract on dips, and short - term shorting in the 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton range. Look for positive spreads on TA05 - 09 on dips [15]. 3.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price fluctuation has narrowed, and the sales are stable [4]. - **Logic**: The cost of upstream polyester raw materials has slightly declined, and the short - fiber price is range - bound. The downstream sales have improved slightly, and the market demand is stable [23][24]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber price will follow the movement of upstream raw materials, and the processing fee is under some pressure [24]. 3.11 Bottle Chip - **View**: More plants are under maintenance in January, and profit support is strengthening [4]. - **Logic**: The price of upstream raw materials has slightly declined, and the bottle - chip market price has followed the cost movement. The market trading atmosphere is average, and the profit is expected to recover. The inventory is expected to decline smoothly before the festival, and the processing fee has stronger support [25]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price will fluctuate with raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger support at the bottom [25]. 3.12 Styrene - **View**: Driven by exports and a positive market atmosphere, styrene has been oscillating strongly recently [4]. - **Logic**: Exports are good, with confirmed exports of 48,000 tons in January and 12,000 tons in February. Port inventory has decreased, and market sentiment is positive. Macro and crude oil factors are also positive. The supply - demand situation is favorable in January, but there may be a risk of price correction if there is an unexpected increase in supply [18]. - **Outlook**: If there is no significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, it will remain oscillating strongly in the short term, driven by repeated export news [18]. 3.13 PVC - **View**: There is a short - term "rush to export", which supports PVC [4]. - **Logic**: The export tax rebate for PVC will be cancelled on April 1st, leading to a short - term "rush to export". However, the long - term inventory pressure is large. Domestically, supply elasticity has increased, while overseas, the US Olin VCM plant has restarted. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the sustainability of "rush to export" orders is uncertain [37]. - **Outlook**: The short - term "rush to export" supports the price, but the long - term price may face pressure due to the possible poor sustainability of exports and high inventory [38]. 3.14 Caustic Soda - **View**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and is operating weakly [4]. - **Logic**: The production remains high, and inventory pressure is large. Demand from the alumina industry is weak, and non - aluminum downstream demand is also poor. Although the price of liquid chlorine limits the decline of caustic soda, the overall supply - demand situation is under pressure [39]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation remains under pressure, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating, with the decline limited by liquid chlorine [39]. 3.15 LLDPE - **View**: Driven by a positive macro sentiment, LLDPE is oscillating upward [33]. - **Logic**: Oil prices are oscillating, and geopolitical factors continue to affect supply expectations. The futures price has rebounded slightly due to macro expectations and positive market sentiment, but the profit of various production methods has slightly recovered, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [33]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term [33]. 3.16 PP - **View**: Boosted by the macro environment but with reduced downstream trading volume, PP is oscillating upward [34]. - **Logic**: Oil prices are oscillating, and geopolitical factors affect supply expectations. The macro environment is positive for PP, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the trading volume has decreased after the price rebound. The short - term maintenance rate has slightly decreased [34]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term [34]. 3.17 PL - **View**: Some downstream plants have restarted, and PL is oscillating upward [35]. - **Logic**: PDH maintenance expectations provide support. Propylene enterprise inventory is controllable, and downstream demand has increased slightly. However, the demand is still limited in the off - season [35]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term [35]. 3.18 Indexes - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index, and the PPI commodity index all showed an upward trend on January 12, 2026, with increases of 1.57%, 1.85%, 1.27%, and 1.31% respectively [287]. - **Energy Index**: On January 12, 2026, the energy index was 1102.68, with a daily increase of 0.36%, a 5 - day increase of 1.45%, a 1 - month increase of 0.52%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.48% [288].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks in the short - term drive up oil prices, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited due to significant inventory pressure and supply surplus in the global crude oil market in Q1 2026 [3] - The unilateral trend of fuel oil mainly follows the cost side of crude oil, and geopolitical situations affect both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil markets [4] - The recent rebound in crude oil has little impact on asphalt futures prices, and the reduction of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China may impact domestic asphalt raw material supply [5] Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - The geopolitical situation in Iran is tense but controllable, and the US continues to seize Venezuelan oil tankers, which drives up oil prices in the short - term [3] - In Q1 2026, the global crude oil supply - demand structure shows significant inventory pressure, and supply surplus restricts the upward space of oil prices [3] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The unilateral trend of fuel oil follows the cost side of crude oil, and geopolitical tensions are the key driving factors [4] - For high - sulfur fuel oil, US military actions against Venezuela may affect heavy - crude oil supply, and domestic refineries may increase fuel oil use as an alternative raw material for asphalt production. Inventory consumption may appear in late March, and raw material procurement demand may support the high - sulfur market after the Spring Festival in mid - February [4] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the Azur refinery's CDU device has fully resumed operation, and the supply scale is expected to gradually increase. The overseas supply rebound brings loose pressure, keeping the fundamentals weak [4] Asphalt - The recent crude oil rebound has not affected asphalt futures prices significantly [5] - Since December 2025, the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers may impact domestic asphalt raw material supply in February and later, and the current market has priced in the expected tightening of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China [5] - Attention should be paid to the arrival situation of Venezuelan crude oil [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Palladium, Platinum, Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Coke, BR Rubber, PTA, LPG [1] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, PVC [1] - Neutral: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Iron Ore, Black Metals, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Soybean Oil, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Ethylene Glycol, Asian Styrene, Propylene, Butadiene [1] Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short - term, driven by sufficient market funds and positive macro - fundamentals [1]. - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - Different commodities have different price trends based on their own supply - demand situations, policy factors, and macro - economic conditions [1]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - The stock index broke through strongly with heavy volume last week, opening up a new upward space. With positive macro - fundamental data, it is expected to maintain an upward pattern in the short - term [1]. Bond Futures - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rebound despite a recent high - level decline [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be strong due to supply - side restrictions [1]. - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate as they are near the cost line despite weak industrial fundamentals [1]. - Zinc prices have risen recently due to good macro - sentiment, but caution is needed regarding the upside space [1]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with increased risk, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies, macro - sentiment, and futures positions [1]. - Stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Tin prices are affected by market sentiment, and caution is needed for capital withdrawal [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term but with significant fluctuations [1]. - The short - term pattern of weak platinum and strong palladium may continue, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the long - term [1]. - Industrial silicon is bearish due to production changes and reduced production schedules in related industries [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon has factors such as a traditional peak season for new energy vehicles,旺盛 demand for energy storage, and increased supply resumption [1]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise rapidly in the short - term [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Short - term sentiment and funds play a greater role than industrial contradictions, and long positions with stop - losses can be considered [1]. - Iron ore has obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Black metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, with potential supply disturbances [1]. - Glass prices are supported in the short - term but face over - supply pressure in the medium - term [1]. - Soda ash prices follow glass and are more loosely supplied in the medium - term, facing pressure [1]. - Coking coal may have room to rise if the "capacity reduction" expectation continues, but the actual increase is hard to judge [1]. - Coke has a similar logic to coking coal [1]. Oils - Palm oil is expected to be bearish in December according to MPOB data but may reverse later, and short - term rebounds due to macro - sentiment should be watched [1]. - Soybean oil has a strong fundamental and is recommended for long - allocation in oils [1]. - Rapeseed oil may have a trading logic change, and there is still room for price decline [1]. Agricultural Products - Cotton is in a situation of having support but no driving force, and future policies and market conditions should be watched [1]. - Sugar has a global surplus and increased domestic supply, and attention should be paid to capital changes [1]. - Corn sales progress has slowed but is still fast year - on - year, and the spot price is firm in the short - term [1]. - Bean粕 is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [1]. - Pulp prices are affected by macro - commodity fluctuations, and cautious observation is recommended [1]. - Log prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range [1]. - Live pigs' supply capacity still needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil has a risk of rising due to geopolitical factors, but there are also factors such as increased supply and weakening demand [1]. - Fuel oil is affected by factors similar to crude oil [1]. - Asphalt has factors such as high profit and potential supply changes [1]. - BR rubber has factors such as reduced upward momentum in the short - term and positive factors for future butadiene exports [1]. - PTA has a recent price increase not due to fundamental changes but has fundamental support in the future [1]. - Ethylene glycol rebounded due to supply - side news [1]. - Asian styrene is in a weak - balance state, and short - term upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Propylene has cost support and geopolitical risks [1]. - PVC is expected to face over - supply in 2026, and there is a possibility of capacity clearance [1]. - LPG has factors such as increased import costs, geopolitical risks, and changing inventory trends [1].