Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of the gradually loosening macro - environment, the logic of steel price trends remains unchanged; in the short - term, the weak real demand for steel is difficult to improve significantly [3] - For iron ore, the demand weakens after the decline of hot metal production, and the continuous accumulation of port inventory puts pressure on prices. The market is in a state of weak reality and macro - expectation tug - of - war, with prices oscillating [6] - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic about the future. It is considered that the cost - performance of finding callback positions to do rebounds may be higher than short - selling [11] - For industrial silicon, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, following the commodity environment, and the trend of coking coal futures has a certain driving effect on its price [14] - For polysilicon, the current price fluctuation is regarded as a phased correction within the oscillation range, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies [16] - For glass, in the short - term, without external factors, the market is expected to remain weak [19] - For soda ash, the market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [21] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3047 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.065%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 129,796 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 1.995833 million lots, down 10,093 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3110 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, both with no change [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3219 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.124%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113,657 tons, down 2375 tons. The main contract position was 1.509998 million lots, up 6767 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coil was 3230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, with no change [2] Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both increased, and inventory decreased, showing a neutral performance; hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly, demand rebounded, inventory decreased marginally but remained at a relatively high level, and the inventory contradiction was slightly relieved. The steel mill profitability rate declined significantly recently, and the hot metal production decreased significantly, reducing the supply - side pressure marginally [3] Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 777.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.39% (+3.00), and the position changed by +2978 lots to 561,100 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 941,900 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 783 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.33 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.65% [5] Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume rebounded in the latest period and was at a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both increased, the shipment of FMG was strong, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries rebounded slightly. The near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month [6] - Demand: The average daily hot metal production in the latest period was 239.9 tons, falling below 240 tons, mainly affected by the weak steel price, the decline of steel mill profitability to the lowest level of the year, and the environmental protection issues in Hebei affecting blast furnace production [6] - Inventory: Port inventory continued to increase, and steel mill inventory increased slightly [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On October 23, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 0.14% at 5818 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5910 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the premium to the futures price was 92 yuan/ton [9] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed up 0.65% at 5574 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the premium to the futures price was 76 yuan/ton [9] Strategy Views - The uncertainty of Sino - US trade friction has put pressure on commodities. Most of the current situation has been priced in, and subsequent macro - level factors may be more important [10] - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. It is considered that the cost - performance of finding callback positions to do rebounds may be higher. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon futures (SI2511) closed at 8705 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.59% (+220). The weighted contract position changed by +103 lots to 438,582 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis of the main contract was 595 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis of the main contract was 145 yuan/ton [13] - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon futures (PS2511) closed at 50760 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.89% (+450). The weighted contract position changed by - 3824 lots to 243,675 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.98 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg, and the basis of the main contract was 2220 yuan/ton [15] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The supply shows a pattern of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south", and the supply pressure still exists. The demand is mainly restricted by supply. The cost provides support for the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [14] - Polysilicon: The over - expected increase in silicon material production in October and the decrease in downstream silicon wafer production lead to continuous inventory accumulation pressure. The supply pressure will be relieved if the leading enterprises start maintenance at the end of the month. The current price fluctuation is a phased correction [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1108 yuan/ton, up 1.28% (+14). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1140 yuan, with no change; the price in Central China was 1150 yuan, with no change. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million boxes, up 2.3374 million boxes (+3.64%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 12,367 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their positions by 6711 lots [18] - Soda ash: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1235 yuan/ton, up 0.98% (+12). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1185 yuan, up 12 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7021 million tons, up 0.16 million tons (+3.64%), among which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 934,500 tons, down 62,000 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 767,600 tons, up 78,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 3131 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 4848 lots [20] Strategy Views - Glass: Entering the end of the traditional peak season, the downstream procurement rhythm slows down further, and the supply rebounds. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short - term, and the market is expected to remain weak [19] - Soda ash: The industry shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [21]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The pure benzene market is experiencing weak demand, with rising port inventories and ongoing supply pressure. The demand side is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term, and the oversupply situation will persist. [2][3] - The styrene market is facing a mismatch between supply and demand, with low demand unable to support price rebounds. Although macro - policy may provide some support, the weak supply - demand pattern will continue. [4][5] 3. Summary by Section Pure Benzene - **Market Overview**: The pure benzene market is operating weakly, with port inventories rising again and increasing supply pressure. Downstream开工率 is low, and product inventories in some industries are high, dragging down demand. [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is abundant, but due to weak downstream demand, the supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively resolved. The weak demand has led to a lack of price support and increased supply pressure. [3] - **Market Outlook**: Given the continued low - level downstream demand and high inventories in some industries, the demand side of the pure benzene market is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term. Port inventories may remain high in the coming weeks, and the basis may continue to weaken. [3] - **Key Indicators**: Supply is sufficient, port inventories are rising, downstream开工率 is falling, the monthly spread is weak, and the basis is weakening. The international arbitrage window is closed. [7] - **Supply Details**: Last week, new maintenance at Yulong Petrochemical, Shengxing Petrochemical, Urumqi Petrochemical, and Guangzhou Petrochemical occurred, but overall supply remained high. For hydrobenzene, there is more spot supply, and some plants have reduced their loads. [10] - **Import Situation**: Pure benzene imports are rising. Affected by US tariff policies, the US - Asia arbitrage window is closed, and most of South Korea's pure benzene is flowing to China, increasing import pressure. [12][14] - **Downstream Situation**: Downstream profits are weakening, and开工率 is seasonally declining. Overall demand is weakening, and downstream inventories are generally high. [16][18][23] - **Inventory Situation**: As of October 22, pure benzene port inventories were 99,000 tons, up 9,000 tons from last week. Due to weak downstream demand, inventories are expected to continue to accumulate. [28] - **Price Spread**: The pure benzene - naphtha price spread weakened after a brief recovery, and the BZN spread is low, indicating low pure benzene valuation. [30][32] Styrene - **Market Overview**: The styrene market continues to operate weakly, with significant pressure on both the supply and demand sides. Although downstream开工率 has increased,提货 performance is average, and port inventories are under pressure. [4] - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, there are still maintenance plans, which may lead to some production cuts. However, new plants will impact the market supply. Downstream demand growth is limited due to weak terminal demand and high inventories in some downstream industries. [4] - **Cost and Price**: The non - integrated cost of styrene has decreased due to falling international oil prices, and losses have deepened. Although the supply - demand situation is weak, the valuation of the November contract is low, and the downward space is relatively limited due to potential macro - policy support in late October. [4] - **Market Outlook**: This week, styrene production is expected to decline slightly due to previous plant shutdowns. However, considering the concentrated downstream production in November and December, the supply - demand mismatch may intensify, and the weak supply - demand pattern will continue. [5] - **Key Indicators**: Supply has decreased slightly, downstream demand recovery space is limited, the EB2511 - EB2512 spread is suitable for reverse arbitrage, and port inventories are still high. [7] - **Production Situation**: Styrene开工率 has declined, and production has decreased. In September, production decreased but was still higher than in previous periods. The cumulative supply from January to September increased by 17.28% year - on - year. [36][38] - **Import and Export Situation**: In September, styrene imports were 26,200 tons, a slight increase from the previous month, and exports were 31,500 tons, showing significant year - on - year and month - on - month growth. [41] - **Inventory Situation**: As of October 22, styrene port inventories increased to 203,000 tons, up 6,000 tons from last week. Inventories are likely to continue to accumulate in late October. [45] - **Downstream Situation**: Downstream开工率 has weakened, and the profits of 3S products have declined. Downstream production is high, and there are no obvious signs of inventory reduction. [47][55] - **Basis Situation**: The styrene basis has been fluctuating narrowly. Due to weak downstream demand and high inventories, the basis is still weak and may decline further in the future. [57]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil are all "oscillating weakly" [5][6][7]. - The market for these commodities is affected by multiple factors such as Sino - US relations, policies, production, exports, and inventories [5][6][7]. 3) Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on Sino - US negotiations. The domestic market is hesitant to buy forward - delivery soybeans due to uncertain import costs. The current soybean meal market has a pattern of both weak supply and demand, with the core contradiction being the combined effect of loose supply and weak demand. Short - term futures prices will continue to oscillate [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Tightening supply in Indonesia and improved export data in the first half of October support the price of Malaysian palm oil. The expected slowdown in Indian purchases and high domestic inventories in Malaysia suppress market sentiment. In China, position adjustments by funds and weekly increases in palm oil inventories also put pressure on prices. The short - term market oscillation intensifies, and futures prices are mainly oscillating weakly [7]. - **Influencing Factors**: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report's Core View - For electrolytic nickel, the recommended strategy is to wait and see, with an expected trading range of 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. Given a loose fundamental situation, high inventory pressure, and low valuation, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5][95]. - For stainless steel, the recommended strategy is to sell on rallies, with an expected trading range of 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Due to weak fundamentals and declining cost support, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6][122]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 1.89%. Trading volume reached 486,300 lots (+196,400), and open interest was 60,500 lots (-17,300). LME nickel dropped 1.11% weekly, with trading volume at 34,600 lots (-6,400) [12]. - The basis premium was 1,240 yuan/ton [14]. 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained unchanged, as did the shipping price from the Philippines to China [21]. - In September, Philippine nickel ore exports decreased. China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% MoM decrease but a 33.9% YoY increase [26]. - Last week, nickel ore arrivals increased by 707,000 tons MoM, and port inventories rose by 30,000 wet tons [28]. 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 14 yuan/nickel point, and that of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron dropped by 50 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel widened, and the premium to scrap stainless steel narrowed [33]. - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, up 24.2% MoM and 47.2% YoY. Imports are expected to decline in October [36]. - BF profit contracted, but the operating rate rose. RKEF losses widened, and the operating rate decreased [40]. - In October, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic nickel pig iron decreased, while those in Indonesia increased [44]. - Nickel pig iron inventories decreased [46]. 1.2 Supply Side - Electrolytic Nickel - In October, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel increased [50]. - The export profit of electrolytic nickel decreased [54]. - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased, and exports decreased [58]. 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel - In October, stainless steel production schedules increased, while those of the 300 - series decreased [63][111]. - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% MoM and 8.7% YoY, while imports rose by 2.7% MoM and 0.4% YoY. October's import and export volumes are expected to be similar to September's [67][114]. 1.3 Demand Side - New Energy - The price of pure nickel declined, while that of nickel sulfate increased, widening the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate is minimal [72]. - In October, the production schedules of ternary precursors increased by 16.2% MoM and 2.8% YoY, and those of ternary materials rose by 4.3% MoM and 33.7% YoY [77]. - In October, the production schedule of nickel sulfate increased by 5.1% MoM and 24.3% YoY [79]. - In September, new energy vehicle production was 1.617 million units, up 16.3% MoM and 23.7% YoY; sales were 1.604 million units, up 15.0% MoM and 24.6% YoY [85]. 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventories and LME nickel inventories increased [86]. - Shanghai bonded area pure nickel inventories remained unchanged, while the six - region social total inventory increased by 4,014 tons [91]. 1.5 Electrowon Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from purchased nickel sulfate increased, while that from purchased nickel matte and MHP decreased. MHP integrated production of electrowon nickel has a significant cost advantage over high - nickel matte integrated production [94]. 1.5 Market Outlook - Nickel - Strategy: Wait and see. Expected trading range: 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. Loose fundamentals, high inventory pressure, and low valuation suggest low - level price fluctuations [95]. 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures trended downward, with a weekly decline of 1.64%. The basis shrank to 970 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 716,700 lots (+557,400), and open interest was 197,700 lots (+144,300) [98]. 2.2 Cost and Profit - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices fell, weakening cost support [102]. - Losses in the 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel expanded [107]. 2.3 Fundamentals - Stainless Steel - In October, stainless steel production schedules increased, while those of the 300 - series decreased [111]. - In September, stainless steel exports decreased, and imports increased. October's volumes are expected to be similar to September's [114]. 2.4 Inventory Side - Stainless Steel - Total domestic stainless steel social inventories decreased. 200 - series and 400 - series inventories decreased, while 300 - series inventories increased [120]. 2.5 Market Outlook - Stainless Steel - Strategy: Sell on rallies. Expected trading range: 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Weak fundamentals, loose cost support, and inventory patterns suggest weak price oscillations [122].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: On October 16, the nickel market showed a complex situation. The nickel futures had certain price changes, and the spot market had a fair trading volume with a narrowing basis premium. The supply side had stable nickel ore prices, increased arrivals last week, and rising inventories. Nickel - iron plants had deeper losses, and production schedules in October increased both in China and Indonesia. The production schedule of domestic electrolytic nickel in October also increased, and export profits decreased. The demand side saw an increase in ternary production, an increase in stainless - steel plant production schedules, and stable alloy and electroplating demand. In terms of inventory, LME inventory increased, while SHFE inventory decreased, and social inventory increased. Overall, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is low, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1][2]. - Stainless steel: On October 16, the stainless - steel futures had a range - bound movement, and the spot market trading was weak with a narrowing basis premium. The SHFE inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory increased last week. In terms of supply, the stainless - steel production schedule in October increased, but the 300 - series production schedule decreased. The demand side had weak terminal demand. The cost side saw a decline in high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices. Overall, the fundamentals are loose, inventory is piling up, and cost support is weakening, so stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Information Nickel - related Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of SHFE nickel near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts on October 16 were 121,270 yuan/ton, 121,420 yuan/ton, 121,660 yuan/ton, and 121,900 yuan/ton respectively, showing an upward trend compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active SHFE nickel contract was 67,146 lots (- 16,615), and the open interest was 66,228 lots (- 2,453). The LME 3 - month nickel official price was 15,150 US dollars/ton (- 60), the electronic - disk closing price was 15,230 US dollars/ton (+ 80), and the on - site closing price was 15,267 US dollars/ton (+ 73). The trading volume was 5,500 lots (- 709) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,150 yuan/ton (- 150), the average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 123,400 yuan/ton (- 100), and the average price of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) was 121,350 yuan/ton (- 100) [2]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons, the LME registered warehouse receipts were 0 tons, and the total LME nickel inventory was 250,344 tons (+ 3,588). The SMM Chinese port nickel ore total inventory was 971 (in ten thousand wet tons), the SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory was 3,100 tons, and the SMM pure nickel social inventory was 43,694 tons (+ 2,866) [2]. Stainless - steel - related Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of SHFE stainless - steel near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts on October 16 were 12,585 yuan/ton, 12,615 yuan/ton, 12,700 yuan/ton, and 12,750 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of the active SHFE stainless - steel contract was 125,870 lots (+ 12,654), and the open interest was 201,245 lots (+ 7,755) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of 304/2B coil - trimmed (Wuxi) was 13,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), the average price of 304/No.1 coil (Wuxi) was 12,700 yuan/ton (- 50), the average price of 316L/2B coil (Wuxi) was 25,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the average price of 316L/NO.1 coil (Wuxi) was 3,750 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE stainless - steel inventory was 83,231 tons (- 776), and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 619,400 tons (+ 33,900) [2]. Industry News In Indonesia, the selling prices of domestic mining products, especially those currently prohibited from export, are still lower than the Mineral Reference Price (HPM). This situation puts mining practitioners in a dilemma, especially with limited smelter capacity in the country. The mining enterprises have weak bargaining power, and there is a mismatch between the actual transaction price and the tax - paying obligation. So far, the government has not imposed sanctions on smelters [2]. Trading Strategies - Nickel: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2]. - Stainless steel: It is recommended to short at high prices [2].

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in styrene futures prices since late September is attributed to multiple factors, including a sharp drop in oil prices and weak fundamentals in the styrene market [1][2]. Group 1: Price Decline Factors - Styrene futures prices began to decline from a high of 7831 yuan/ton in late June 2025, reaching a low of 6437 yuan/ton by October 16 [1]. - The drop in oil prices is a major factor affecting styrene prices, driven by geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and an oversupply situation as the demand season ends [1][2]. - The overall chemical product prices have also fallen due to macroeconomic disturbances and OPEC+ production increases, impacting styrene prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory Dynamics - Styrene's weak fundamentals are reflected in rising port inventories and a marginal weakening in the upstream pure benzene supply-demand balance [2]. - As of mid-October, styrene inventories at East China ports were around 200,000 tons, significantly higher than the approximately 40,000 tons from the same period last year, marking a five-year high [2]. - Despite maintenance activities reducing production slightly, the overall supply remains high, and demand has also decreased, leading to a continued oversupply situation [2][3]. Group 3: Industry Chain Analysis - The basic fundamentals of pure benzene, the direct raw material for styrene, are also weak, with expectations of declining demand due to losses in downstream products [3]. - High hidden inventories of pure benzene, concentrated in styrene plants, are expected to keep production rates high, as plants are unlikely to significantly reduce output to maintain market share [3]. - The entire industry chain, including pure benzene, styrene, and downstream synthetic materials, is experiencing historically high inventory levels, which will take time to alleviate [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term reversal of styrene prices is considered difficult, with potential for a temporary rebound due to supply constraints from geopolitical factors [4]. - For a price reversal to occur, improvements in oil prices, upstream pure benzene fundamentals, and downstream orders are necessary [5]. - The likelihood of a decrease in styrene inventory and low valuation suggests that overly bearish views may not be warranted, although new production capacity and oil price declines pose challenges [5].

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing a significant supply pressure due to continuous new capacity additions, while demand remains weak, particularly influenced by the real estate sector's downturn. The overall market outlook for PVC remains bearish, with high inventory levels and low prices persisting [1][27]. Supply Side Analysis - As of 2025, a total of 1.45 million tons of new PVC capacity has been added, with major contributions from companies like Xinpu Chemical and Wanhu Fujian. The total new capacity for the year is expected to reach 1.95 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 7% [4][5]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative PVC production reached 18.11 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.11%. The increase is primarily driven by the ethylene method, which saw a 9.78% rise [4][5]. Demand Side Analysis - The domestic demand for PVC is heavily influenced by the real estate sector, which has seen a significant decline in investment and construction activities. From January to August 2025, real estate development investment dropped by 12.9%, and new construction area decreased by 19.5% [7]. - Exports of PVC from January to August 2025 totaled 2.5752 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 55%. However, there are concerns about potential declines in exports due to rising anti-dumping measures in key markets like India [8]. Inventory Levels - As of last week, the domestic PVC social inventory reached 1.0364 million tons, an increase of 5.58% month-on-month and 23.54% year-on-year. The overall industry inventory has also risen, indicating a prolonged period of oversupply [15][16]. Price and Cost Dynamics - The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and ethylene remain low, contributing to a weak pricing environment for PVC. Despite ongoing losses in production methods, the overall profit margins in the chlor-alkali sector remain acceptable [21][22]. Technical Analysis - The PVC market has been in a downward trend since reaching historical highs in 2021. The market is currently seeking support levels after breaking below key price thresholds [24][27]. Summary - The PVC market is characterized by significant supply pressures from new capacity additions, weak domestic demand due to the real estate sector's struggles, and high inventory levels. The overall outlook remains bearish, with cautious trading strategies recommended as the market seeks stability [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The ethylene glycol market is currently facing supply and inventory pressures, lacking bullish support. In the short term, it is expected to maintain a low-level oscillation pattern, with the upside limited by high inventory and weak demand, and the downside supported by cost differences. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points and coal-based plant maintenance trends [1][2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: The price of the ethylene glycol futures main contract decreased slightly from 4,061 yuan/ton on October 14th to 4,057 yuan/ton on October 15th, a decline of 0.1%. The East China spot price also weakened, and the basis narrowed from 69 yuan/ton to 63 yuan/ton, indicating a slight relief in futures discount pressure but still cautious market sentiment [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract increased by 2,469 lots to 339,900 lots, while the trading volume dropped significantly by 25.66% (a decrease of 39,900 lots), showing intensified differences between long and short positions but decreased capital activity and increased market waiting sentiment [1]. - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate rose slightly from 70.5% to 71.04%, mainly due to a 0.9-percentage-point increase in the oil-based operating rate to 76.49%, while the coal-based operating rate remained unchanged at 62.95%. The profits of various ethylene-based production routes generally improved, but the coal-based profit decreased by 76 yuan/ton to 410.87 yuan/ton, and the profits of natural gas-based and associated gas-based production also decreased by 50 yuan/ton each. Cost pressure may suppress the release of non-oil-based production capacity [1]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. Terminal demand did not show significant improvement, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The gap between high polyester operating rates and low weaving loads persisted, and demand transmission was不畅 [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the East China main port increased by 34,000 tons to 541,000 tons, reaching a recent high, while the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 165,000 tons, indicating concentrated port arrivals but uneven regional distribution and a marginal increase in overall inventory pressure [2]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 0.10%, and the trading volume decreased by 25.66%. The position increased by 0.73%. The East China spot price decreased by 0.24% [4]. - **Profit**: The profits of ethylene-based production routes generally increased, with the SD oxidation method increasing by 10.37%, the SHELL oxidation method increasing by 14.35%, etc. The coal-based profit decreased by 15.67%, the natural gas-based profit decreased by 3.13%, and the associated gas-based profit decreased by 12.25% [4]. - **Operating Rate**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.77%, mainly due to a 1.20% increase in the oil-based operating rate. The coal-based, polyester, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main port inventory increased by 6.71%, while the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 7.30% [4]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **October 15th Market**: In the morning, the negotiation focus of the East China US dollar market rebounded slightly, with November shipments negotiated in the range of 485 - 488 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were heard. In the afternoon, the market fluctuated little. The mainstream market focus moved down, the South China market seller quotes were lowered, and the market transactions were light. The overnight crude oil price decline dragged down market sentiment, and the spot basis narrowed slightly. The Shaanxi region's ethylene glycol market spot price remained stable [5]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, East China main port inventory statistics, and ethylene glycol industry total inventory [6][8][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Although there is an oversupply of steel and an accumulation of plate stocks, there are no signs of a collapse in demand. The inventory pressure can be relieved by compressing profits and reducing production. However, attention should be paid to the impact of new iron ore production capacity on steel. It is recommended to wait and see for single - sided trading and focus on the recovery of apparent demand in the weekly data of Steel Union today [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Due to the weak steel prices and declining profitability of steel mills, the weak demand will force the iron ore market to operate weakly. The overall commissioning progress of the Simandou project is faster than expected. The iron ore market is shifting from a state of tight balance to one of relative abundance. It is recommended to wait and see for single - sided trading, with a reference range of 750 - 800, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended [3]. Coke Industry - The coke futures showed a volatile and weak trend. The cost is expected to increase due to concerns about coking coal supply caused by mining accidents. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke is recommended [5]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures showed a volatile trend. The spot price is expected to enter a rebound trend. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1080 - 1200, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot and futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3210 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price of rebar decreased from 3061 yuan/ton to 3034 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 33 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar in most regions was in a loss state [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.8 tons to 863.3 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The output of rebar decreased by 3.6 tons to 203.4 tons, a decrease of 1.7% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 127.9 tons to 1600.7 tons, an increase of 8.7%. The inventory of rebar increased by 57.4 tons to 602.3 tons, an increase of 9.5% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.1 to 10.6 tons, a decrease of 10.8%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 153.4 tons to 751.4 tons, a decrease of 17.0% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the 01 contract basis of some iron ore powders increased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder decreased from 827.1 yuan/ton to 821.6 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis of Bar - mixed powder increased from 53.2 yuan/ton to 55.5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The global shipping volume of iron ore decreased by 71.5 tons to 3207.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2%, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 437.1 tons to 3045.8 tons, an increase of 16.8% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 100.5 tons to 6979.3 tons, a decrease of 1.4% [3]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased by 61.6 tons to 14086.14 tons, an increase of 0.4%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 990.6 tons to 9046.2 tons, a decrease of 9.9% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke futures contracts decreased slightly. The 01 contract of coke decreased from 1655 yuan/ton to 1642 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8%. The coking profit decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 54 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 66.1 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [5]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 10.1 tons to 909.8 tons, a decrease of 1.1%. The coke inventory of coking plants increased, while the inventory of steel mills and ports decreased [5]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal futures contracts decreased slightly. The 01 contract of coking coal decreased from 1154 yuan/ton to 1151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2%. The profit of sample coal mines remained unchanged at 466 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output decreased by 31.3 tons to 836.7 tons, a decrease of 3.6%, and the clean coal output decreased by 19.8 tons to 426.3 tons, a decrease of 4.4% [5]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 66.1 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [5]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory increased, while the inventory of ports, coking plants, and steel mills decreased [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of soybean meal 2601, soybean oil 2601, and palm oil 2601 are all "oscillating weakly" [6]. - The market sentiment of the soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures is unstable, and the prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations, including potential tariff increases and negotiation uncertainties, combined with the contradiction between high near - month inventory and expected far - month supply gaps in the domestic market, have weakened the support for the futures price of the soybean meal 2601 contract. The market sentiment is volatile, leading to a short - term weakly oscillating price [5]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The continuous downward pressure on international oil prices has an overflow effect on the oil market. Meanwhile, the weakening of the palm oil industry chain exerts significant pressure on the market. The possible increase in Indonesia's palm oil export tax may affect market sentiment. Until the market sentiment recovers, the palm oil futures price will oscillate weakly [7]. - **Key Factors**: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil (not separately detailed in the text but included in the table) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].