Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices fluctuate and rise after opening low. In November, the industrial silicon market still faces inventory accumulation pressure. Although supply may decline slightly and demand may remain stable, the increase in supply in the spot market may lead to inventory accumulation and put pressure on spot prices. However, there is cost - side support. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips when the price drops to around 8500 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices fluctuate and decline. Currently, futures are at a premium to the spot average. In November, supply pressure decreases, but demand also drops. The overall supply - demand is weak, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Futures can be bought on dips near the lower edge of the range; options can sell put options around 50000 to earn premiums; the equity side can buy photovoltaic ETFs, new energy ETFs, or related stocks [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices are weakly volatile, with low demand and obvious excess. The market is under pressure. In the medium - term, downstream demand will maintain the previous rigid - demand pattern. The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered. For glass, the news of production line shutdown in Shahe has a short - term emotional impact on the market, but in the long - term, there will be production line restarts, which will put pressure on supply. The deep - processing orders are seasonally weak, and the low - e开工率 is low. In November, there is still some peak - season demand expectation. Pay attention to the demand performance after price cuts. In the long - term, the glass industry needs capacity clearance. Short - term long - buying opportunities on rebounds can be grasped [4]. Logs - Log futures fluctuate. The main benchmark delivery product spot prices are unchanged. Last week, inventory increased slightly, and demand decreased slightly. The supply of arriving ships is increasing. The market is under pressure, but the price difference between domestic and foreign markets provides some support. Log futures are expected to maintain a weak - volatile trend [5]. Natural Rubber - In the short - term, cost - side supports rubber prices due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. In the long - term, there is an expectation of increased supply. Demand is weak at the beginning of the month, and the replacement demand for all - steel tires in the north will further weaken. Dark - colored rubber has shown an inventory accumulation inflection point, and rubber prices may decline further. If raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, the price may run around 15000 - 15500 [7]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The basis of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9450 yuan/ton on November 3 compared to October 31. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 11.43%. The basis decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 20.00%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - year industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8800 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.00% [1]. Inter - month Spreads - The spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.33%; the spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, a decline of 16.67%; the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 15 yuan/ton, a decline of 100.00%; the spread of 2603 - 2604 increased by 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 250.00% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production increased by 3.14 million tons, a growth of 7.46%; Xinjiang's production increased by 3.24 million tons, a growth of 15.94%; Yunnan's production decreased by 0.57 million tons, a decline of 9.60%; Sichuan's production decreased by 0.10 million tons, a decline of 1.91%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 0.06 million tons, a decline of 0.29%; polysilicon production increased by 0.40 million tons, a growth of 3.08%; recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 4.60 million tons, a growth of 7.48%; industrial silicon exports decreased by 0.64 million tons, a decline of 8.36% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.03 million tons, a decline of 0.28%; Yunnan's increased by 0.05 million tons, a growth of 1.47%; social inventory decreased by 0.10 million tons, a decline of 0.18%; warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.55 million tons, a decline of 2.31%; non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.45 million tons [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52250 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50500 yuan/kg; the N - type material basis increased by 345 yuan/kg, a growth of 8.29% [2]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads - The main contract decreased by 345 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.61%; the spread of the current month - the first - continuous contract decreased by 140 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.62%; the spread of the first - continuous - the second - continuous contract decreased by 60 yuan/ton, a decline of 109.09%; the spread of the second - continuous - the third - continuous contract decreased by 160 yuan/ton, a decline of 84.21% [2]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: Silicon wafer production decreased by 0.49 million tons, a decline of 3.33%; polysilicon production decreased by 0.13 million tons, a decline of 4.41%. Monthly: Polysilicon production increased by 0.40 million tons, a growth of 3.08%; imports increased by 0.03 million tons, a growth of 28.46%; exports decreased by 0.08 million tons, a decline of 28.16%; net exports decreased by 0.11 million tons, a decline of 56.83%. Silicon wafer production increased by 1.60 million tons, a growth of 2.71%; imports decreased by 0.01 million tons, a decline of 17.96%; exports remained unchanged; net exports increased by 0.01 million tons, a growth of 1.96%; demand decreased by 1.71 million tons, a decline of 2.79% [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.30 million tons, a growth of 1.16%; silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.46 million tons, a growth of 2.49% [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - North China's glass price remained unchanged at 1130 yuan/ton; East China's decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.80%; glass 2505 increased by 7 yuan/ton, a growth of 0.57%; glass 2509 increased by 2 yuan/ton, a growth of 0.15%; the 05 basis decreased by 7 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.86% [4]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - North China's soda ash price remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton; East China's decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.80%; soda ash 2505 decreased by 26 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.98%; soda ash 2509 decreased by 21 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.60%; the 05 basis increased by 26 yuan/ton, an increase of 162.50% [4]. Supply - Soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.72%; weekly production decreased by 1.3 million tons, a decline of 1.71%; float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged; photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 750 tons, a decline of 0.84%; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 0.5 yuan, a decline of 2.50% [4]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 296.6 million tons, a growth of 4.72%; soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 4.2 million tons, a growth of 2.54%; soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons, a decline of 3.18% [4]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures prices declined. The 11 - 01 spread increased by 2.5 yuan; the 01 contract basis increased by 5.5 yuan. Spot prices of some radiata pine and spruce in ports remained unchanged [5]. Supply - Port shipments decreased by 24.7 million cubic meters, a decline of 13.99%; the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8, a growth of 17.39%. As of October 31, the national coniferous log inventory increased by 40,000 cubic meters to 2.88 million cubic meters. From November 3 - 9, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports increased by 2, a week - on - week increase of 13%; the arrival volume increased by 77,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 16% [5]. Demand - As of October 31, the daily log出库 volume was 62,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 16,000 cubic meters compared to last week [5]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai remained unchanged at 14650 yuan/ton; the whole - latex basis decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.30%; the Thai standard mixed rubber price decreased by 300 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.01%; the non - standard price difference decreased by 310 yuan/ton, a decline of 229.63% [7]. Inter - month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton, a growth of 3.57%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 28.57%; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, a growth of 21.43% [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 2,000 tons, a decline of 0.43%; Indonesia's decreased by 8,500 tons, a decline of 4.30%; India's increased by 5,000 tons, a growth of 11.11%; China's increased by 12,200 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.26%; the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.24%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 8.59 million pieces, a growth of 9.10%; in September, tire exports decreased by 671,000 pieces, a decline of 10.65%. In August, natural rubber imports increased by 75,000 tons, a growth of 14.41%; in September, imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 80,000 tons, a growth of 12.12% [7]. Inventory Changes - Bonded - area inventory increased by 15,439 tons, a growth of 3.57%; natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,015 tons, a growth of 4.73%; the bonded - warehouse出库 rate in Qingdao decreased by 1.50%; the general - trade入库 rate increased by 1.99%; the general - trade出库 rate increased by 3.11% [7].

Overall Key Points - The report analyzes the overnight performance and future trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives [2][3][4] Group 1: Energy Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fluctuated. The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% increase in inventory in the fourth quarter, including a 5.9% increase in crude oil inventory and a 2.1% decrease in refined oil inventory. The inventory accumulation of upstream crude oil is concentrated in the transit link. The OPEC+ meeting last Sunday slightly exceeded expectations, and the suspension of production increase in the first quarter of next year reflects the organization's management of the downward risk. However, according to the current production increase path, the market supply-demand surplus in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year still faces marginal expansion. Short-term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the entry opportunity of the short-selling portfolio after the geopolitical risk is priced again [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market shows a structural differentiation. The medium-term supply pattern of high-sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose, and the previous high valuation faces correction pressure. The low-sulfur market has received short-term support, and the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to tighten. The price difference between high and low sulfur is expected to further widen [22] Asphalt - In late October, some refineries in Shandong and Hebei switched to producing residual oil and shut down, and the weekly output decreased. The construction in the north is gradually declining, and the construction in the northeast and northwest has gradually stopped under the influence of low temperatures. The south still has the demand for rush construction. Since late October, the year-on-year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has shown a negative growth for the first time, and it is likely to continue the trend of negative year-on-year growth in the future. The decline of the overall commercial inventory has slowed down, and the social inventory has increased year-on-year for the first time at the end of October [23] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG contract continued to fluctuate narrowly. The weekly LPG commodity volume decreased slightly, while the arrival volume increased significantly. The improvement of chemical profit has promoted the increase of demand, and the cooling in many places has driven the improvement of combustion demand. The market expects the overall demand to improve. The refinery storage capacity ratio decreased slightly, and the port storage capacity ratio increased. The marginal improvement of the fundamental expectation still supports LPG [24] Group 2: Metals Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October was slightly lower than expected and the previous value. Recently, many Fed officials have spoken out against a rate cut in December, reflecting internal differences. The US government shutdown is still in the game stage, and the non-farm payroll data this week may not be released. The market is waiting for new drivers, and precious metals have built a high-level shock platform. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fell in late trading. The market is evaluating the copper consumption at the end of the year. The US ISM manufacturing PMI has contracted for the eighth consecutive month, and the high copper price in China has suppressed demand. However, compared with the second quarter of last year, the spot side has improved its passive adaptability in the environment of "weak supply and demand". At the same time, the domestic social inventory has accumulated to more than 200,000 tons, and there is still a certain space from the critical point of the lagging reflection of supply and demand. After the short-term copper price reached a high, there is a certain risk of correction. Attention should be paid to the support toughness of the MA20 moving average. Some long positions can be held based on the key moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.8 million tons compared with Thursday. Since October, the domestic inventory and spot performance have been average, and the apparent consumption is basically flat year-on-year. The macro sentiment dominates, and the resonance of the aluminum market fundamentals is limited. In the short term, it fluctuates strongly towards the high point in November 2024, but the upward space is cautiously viewed for the time being [5] - **Zinc**: The zinc ingot export window is open, the LME zinc inventory has increased slightly, and the SMM zinc social inventory has decreased to 161,700 tons. The divergence of the inventory between the domestic and foreign markets has temporarily stopped, and the cross-market arbitrage funds have the demand to take profits. The domestic mine TC continues to decline to 2,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported mine TC also declines synchronously. The short-term rebound momentum of SHFE zinc is relatively strong. Short-term long positions can be participated, and the high rebound range is temporarily seen at 23,000-23,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Lead**: On Monday, the SMM lead social inventory slightly increased to 30,200 tons, which is generally low. The correction of SHFE lead is not smooth, and the fundamentals are mixed. The funds are more cautious to enter the market. The raw material overlap between recycled lead and primary lead smelters is increasing day by day. Under the background of winter storage, the smelting capacity is surplus, and the shortage of lead concentrate is intensifying. The price of waste batteries remains high and stable, and the cost of SHFE lead is strongly supported. The refined scrap price difference is 75 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 lead is at a discount of 125 yuan/ton to the nearby contract. Downstream enterprises tend to purchase low-priced recycled lead, and the trading of electrolytic lead is slightly sluggish. Affected by the game between cost and demand, SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,300-17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was light. The weak downstream demand dominates the market. Although there are news of stainless steel mills reducing production, the actual implementation still needs to be observed. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,600 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high-nickel pig iron is quoted at 926 yuan per nickel point, and the support brought by the rebound of the upstream price is weakening, which may drag down the price level of the entire nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 700 tons to 48,800 tons, the nickel pig iron inventory increased by 500 tons to 29,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increased by 400 tons to 947,000 tons. SHFE nickel is running weakly, and the center of gravity tends to move down [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, the tin price fluctuated weakly. The tin market lacks clear guidance and mainly follows the rhythm of the copper price. In addition to the interference of the rainy season on the transportation rhythm, the closure of the Dar es Salaam port in Tanzania may also affect the export speed of tin products. The tin price fluctuated at a high level for a long time in October, and the inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is generally average, but there is still demand for spot pricing. Last week, the social inventory of SMM and Steel Union continued to flow out slightly. Subjectively, it is recommended to short on rallies or wait for the right-side trading opportunity after a clear break [11] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Overnight, the iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, and the basis fluctuated recently. On the supply side, the global shipment volume decreased this period but is still at a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreased, but the Brazilian shipment is still at a high level in the same period. The domestic arrival volume increased significantly this period and reached a new high this year. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased significantly last week, and the profitability of steel mills reached a new low this year, with further production reduction pressure in the future. The progress of the Sino-US trade agreement has alleviated the concern about weak exports, and an important domestic meeting has been held. After the short-term rebound of the iron ore futures, the market tends to realize some benefits. It is expected that the iron ore will fluctuate weakly at a high level [16] - **Coke**: The price fluctuated downward during the day. There is an expectation of a third round of price increase for coking coal. The coking profit is average, and the daily output decreased slightly. The coke inventory hardly changed. Currently, downstream enterprises purchase on demand in small quantities, and the inventory increased slightly. The purchasing intention of traders is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. However, the profit level of steel is average, and the pressure to reduce the price of raw materials is strong. The coke futures are at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal producing areas. The price may be more likely to rise than to fall [17] - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuated downward during the day. The market sentiment declined rapidly due to the resumption of production of a small number of coal mines in the Wuhai production area after meeting the environmental protection standards, but most of the coal mines facing resource integration have not resumed production. It is judged that the price is difficult to continue to decline. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions improved, and the transaction prices generally increased. The terminal inventory increased. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the production-side inventory decreased slightly. As the safety inspection team is about to enter the main coal-producing areas, attention should be paid to the relevant impacts. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. However, the profit level of steel is average, and the pressure to reduce the price of raw materials is strong. The coking coal futures are at a discount to the Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal producing areas. The price may be more likely to rise than to fall [18] - **Silicon Manganese**: The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained at a high level above 2.36 million tons. The weekly output of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the production remained at a high level. The silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly, and the spot and futures demand is still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month-on-month, and the spot ore was boosted by the futures. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained at a high level above 2.36 million tons. The export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The output of magnesium metal increased slightly month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of silicon iron remained at a high level, and the on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [20] Group 3: Chemicals Polyolefins - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The market is still dragged down by the demand side, and the bearish expectation of market participants remains unchanged. However, the positive impact of the maintenance of the Binzhou PDH unit will provide a window for bargain hunting and is expected to drive propylene to stop falling to a certain extent. For polyethylene, the number of domestic petrochemical maintenance units decreased, and the capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation, resulting in an increase in domestic supply. The demand for greenhouse films and mulch films weakened, and other downstream industries showed no bright spots. The enthusiasm of factories for raw material procurement was dull, and the overall trading volume was limited. For polypropylene, the impact of new capacity and the weakening of unit maintenance intensity are expected to increase the supply pressure. The downstream operating rate is stable, with rigid demand support, but the downstream profit is limited, and the raw material procurement is cautious. The demand is difficult to release continuously, which still suppresses the market [29] Other Chemicals - **Methanol**: The methanol futures continued to decline significantly at night. The import supply is expected to remain sufficient, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. The profits of most downstream products are not good, and the overall support for the methanol market is insufficient. Some coastal MTO units have maintenance plans in the future, and the demand of traditional downstream industries is expected to enter the off-season as the weather gets colder. The situation of high port inventory and high import supply of methanol is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the weak downstream demand further suppresses the market. The inflection point of port inventory has not appeared, and it is necessary to wait for the substantial implementation of supply reduction and demand improvement [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The chemical products fell overall at night, and the price of general benzene fell below 5,500 yuan/ton again. The arrival volume increased and the提货 volume decreased, and the port inventory increased significantly on Monday. The units restarted this week, and the operating rate of pure benzene increased slightly. The purchasing sentiment for low-price spot goods is good, but there are negative factors such as high import volume and falling demand in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory accumulation rhythm in the future, and the monthly spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [27] - **Styrene**: The cost support is insufficient, and the improvement of the supply-demand situation is limited. The overall pressure remains. Although new units have been put into operation, the overall supply has still decreased slightly due to the sudden maintenance of individual units. The demand remains stable, and the supply-demand balance continues, but the high inventory structure is difficult to resolve, which keeps the price under pressure [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The price of calcium carbide decreased, and the cost support weakened. Under the weak reality, PVC is operating at a low level. Enterprises' inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased, but the industry inventory pressure is still large. The maintenance of some enterprises such as Shandong Xinfa, Xinjiang Tianye Tianneng Production Area, and Hangjin Technology has ended, and the supply is expected to continue to increase. The domestic demand is stable, and the export is mainly on the sidelines due to the Indian holiday and anti-dumping duties. With weak cost support and high supply and low demand, PVC may operate at a low level. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has become negative again, and the profit has narrowed. Some caustic soda enterprises have slightly raised the price, and it is operating strongly during the day. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and the inventory pressure is large. The enterprises' maintenance has recovered, and the supply has increased. The profit of alumina has been compressed, and the operating rate has decreased slightly. Currently, the raw material inventory is high, and the replenishment intention is not strong. The non-aluminum demand growth is limited. The supply pressure of caustic soda is high, and the purchasing price of alumina has been lowered again. The downstream demand is average. It is expected that the futures price will operate at a low level. Further attention should be paid to the price trend of liquid chlorine. If the price continues to fall, the caustic soda price may rebound at a low level under the cost support [30] - **PX & PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA closed with a doji at night, and the center of gravity moved down. The units of Wuhua Petrochemical and Fujia Dahua restarted, and the supply of PX and PTA increased. The supply and demand of PX increased simultaneously, the polyester load was stable, and PTA has the pressure of inventory accumulation. Currently, the downstream demand is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening in the medium term. Under the expectation of PTA inventory accumulation, the reverse arbitrage idea is continued. Attention should be paid to the oil price fluctuation [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased slightly, the port arrival forecast increased, and the inventory increased slightly on Monday. The Zhenhai Refining & Chemical unit is planned to restart, and the supply pressure will be further manifested. The ethylene glycol futures fell with increasing volume and open interest. The demand is expected to weaken in the medium term, and the inventory accumulation is expected to continue. The reverse arbitrage is recommended. Attention should be paid to the possibility of unit production reduction after the benefit decline [32] Group 4: Agricultural Products Grains - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal futures fluctuated strongly at night. The US soybeans are expected to have better sales due to the easing of Sino-US negotiations and continue to be strong. After the preliminary consensus was reached in the Sino-US-Malaysian economic and trade consultations, President Xi Jinping held a meeting with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, and Sino-US relations may tend to ease. However, as of the time of publication, there is no official policy adjustment. There are already news that China has purchased some US soybeans, but it has not been confirmed through official channels. Currently, the domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient, the soybean crushing volume is stable, the crushing profit has been repaired, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly this week. The atmosphere of Sino-US trade easing is strong, and attention should be paid to the policy adjustment of China's import of US soybeans in the future. According to Jin10 Data, the latest US soybean premium quotation is roughly the same as that of Brazil. A significant reduction in the tariff on US soybeans is needed to resume Sino-US soybean trade. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips after the Sino-US trade eases [36] - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures corrected at night. The new corn in the Northeast continues to be supplied, and the price is stable with a slight

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated in the morning and weakened in the afternoon. After the October FOMC meeting, the Fed's hawkish stance reduced market expectations of a December rate cut, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and putting pressure on copper prices. Technically, copper is at a historical high, facing significant pressure, and short - term long - position closing intentions are rising. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly on Thursday, and downstream buyers showed a strong wait - and - see attitude. Attention should be paid to the support at the 10 - day moving average [6]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell. They increased with rising positions in the morning, reaching a high of 21,400 yuan/ton, breaking the Monday high, and then declined with falling positions in the afternoon. Aluminum is more affected by domestic macro factors. Recently, the domestic anti - involution expectations have risen again, which is positive for aluminum prices. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly on Thursday, providing support for aluminum prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 5 - day moving average [7]. - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated within a narrow range. The non - ferrous metal market showed differentiation, and nickel lacked driving forces. The weakness in the industrial aspect made funds more inclined to short nickel to hedge long positions in non - ferrous metals. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 120,000 - yuan mark [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In the copper cable industry, automotive wiring harness orders are stable, and State Grid orders are mainly for essential needs, while new orders in other industries are under pressure. In terms of inventory, enterprises are cautious in procurement, and both raw material and finished product inventory ratios have decreased [10]. - **Aluminum**: Duan Shaofu, Deputy Secretary - General of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association, stated that the processing fees in the non - ferrous metal smelting industry are currently low, and "anti - involution" is crucial for high - quality development. The association proposed three measures: setting a production capacity "ceiling" for bulk metals like copper, lead, and zinc; enhancing concentration through mergers and acquisitions for strategic metals; and guiding enterprises to transform towards personalized and high - value - added products [11]. - **Nickel**: On October 31, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,500 - 123,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,500 - 2,600 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum monthly spread, average aluminum premium, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - After the implementation of interest rate cuts and tariff policies, the copper market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The supply shortage of copper mines strengthens the price bottom, and downstream demand shows strong resilience. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the support around 87,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum oxide market shows regional differentiation, with the north showing signs of bottoming and the south continuing to decline. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is strong, supported by macro factors and demand in some fields, and is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract ranging from 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market maintains a high - level oscillation. The cost support is prominent, and the supply shows a contraction trend. The demand shows a mild recovery, and the social inventory accumulates weekly. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - After the macro positive expectations are fulfilled, the zinc price oscillates. The supply is expected to increase limitedly due to compressed smelting profits, and the demand is stable. There is a risk of a short squeeze in LME, and the export window is intermittently open. The zinc price has short - term support but may continue to oscillate without a clear turning point in the supply - side logic [9]. Tin - The supply of tin mines remains tight, and the demand is weak. Powell's hawkish statement may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The subsequent trend depends on macro factors and the supply recovery in Myanmar [11]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillates. The production of refined nickel is at a high level, the mine price is firm, but the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is expected to decrease. The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the industry profit is shrinking. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market oscillates and weakens. The nickel ore price is firm, but the supply in the Philippines may decrease. The nickel - iron and chromium - iron prices are under pressure, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. The price is expected to weakly oscillate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong. The auction price of lithium mines provides support. The supply shows a slight decrease, and the demand is unexpectedly optimistic. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to remain strong in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 83,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 88,065 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 883 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,200 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 2,515 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 price is 21,300 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,250 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 4,757 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 284,000 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 15,249.89 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,200 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1,540 yuan/ton [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 12,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 80,000 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data Production - **Copper**: The electrolytic copper production in September was 1.121 million tons, down 4.31% from the previous month [1]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum oxide production in September was 7.6037 million tons, down 1.74% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, down 3.16% from the previous month [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in September was 661,000 tons, up 7.48% from the previous month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, up 4.43% from the previous month [5]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc production in September was 600,100 tons, down 4.17% from the previous month [9]. - **Tin**: The SMM refined tin production in September was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% from the previous month [11]. - **Nickel**: The production of refined nickel products in China was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% from the previous month [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 1.8217 million tons, up 0.38% from the previous month [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production of lithium carbonate in September was 87,260 tons, up 2.37% from the previous month [17]. Inventory - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory of copper is 182,600 tons, up 0.55% from the previous week; the SHFE inventory is 104,800 tons, down 4.94% from the previous week [1]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China is 619,000 tons, up 0.16% from the previous day; the LME inventory is 460,000 tons, down 0.70% from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 54,800 tons, up 0.18% from the previous week [5]. - **Zinc**: The seven - place social inventory of zinc ingots in China is 161,500 tons, down 0.37% from the previous week; the LME inventory is 35,000 tons, down 0.85% from the previous day [9]. - **Tin**: The SHEF inventory of tin is 5,766 tons, up 1.32% from the previous week; the social inventory is 6,828 tons, down 2.69% from the previous week [11]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory of nickel is 36,075 tons, up 4.81% from the previous week; the social inventory is 48,802 tons, up 2.29% from the previous week [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The social inventory of 300 - series (Wuxi + Foshan) is 492,200 tons, down 0.55% from the previous week; the SHFE warrant is 73,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate in September was 94,539 tons, up 0.38% from the previous month [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel supply and demand are neutral with no prominent contradictions. The future trend of the black - metal market mainly depends on the coking coal supply. With prices rising to the upper limit of the range, the game intensifies. It is recommended to reduce long positions at the previous high - pressure levels (3200 yuan for rebar and 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils) and pay attention to the coking coal supply. The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage can be held [2]. Iron Ore Industry - After multiple days of rebound, the driving force of iron ore has weakened. It is recommended to close long single - side positions and switch to a wait - and - see mode, with the reference range of 760 - 830. The iron ore 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage is recommended [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, short - term fluctuations do not affect the bullish view for the fourth quarter. It is recommended to speculatively go long on coke 2601 in the range of 1700 - 1850. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 in the range of 1200 - 1350. The long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage can be carried out, but be aware of the large price fluctuations [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally increased. For example, rebar spot in East China rose from 3220 to 3240 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract rose from 3316 to 3358 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 20 yuan to 3000 yuan, and some steelmaking costs and profits changed. For example, East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 4 to 17 yuan [2]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a decline of 0.4%. The output of five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3, a rise of 1.0%. Rebar output increased by 5.9 to 207.1, a rise of 2.9% [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9, a decline of 1.7%. Rebar inventory decreased by 18.9 to 622.1, a decline of 3.0% [2]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume increased by 1.1 to 11.5, a rise of 10.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7, a rise of 2.0% [2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 6.6 to 844.0, a decline of 0.8% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port decreased. For example, the price of Carajás fines at Rizhao Port decreased by 6.0 to 920.0, a decline of 0.6% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1, a decline of 19.5%, while the global shipment volume increased by 54.9 to 3388.4, a rise of 1.6% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, a decline of 1.5%. The 45 - port daily average dispatch volume decreased by 23.8 to 312.7, a decline of 7.1% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 12.4 to 14311.15, a decline of 0.8%, while the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2, a rise of 1.1% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices generally decreased. For example, the coke 01 contract decreased by 15 to 1787, a decline of 0.8%. The coking profit decreased by 11 to - 54 [7]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Some coking coal futures prices decreased. For example, the coking coal 01 contract decreased by 14 to 1288, a decline of 1.1%. The profit of sample coal mines increased by 39 to 232, a rise of 7.9% [7]. Supply - The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6, and the daily average coke output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.2, a rise of 0.2%. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 3.8 to 851.8, a rise of 0.4% [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, a decline of 1.5%. The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6 [7]. Inventory - Coke total inventory increased by 8.1 to 900.0, a rise of 0.9%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 22.8 to 1052.5, a rise of 2.2% [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Copper - The central bank's interest rate cut and the upcoming Sino - US meeting are factors affecting the market. The shortage of copper ore supply supports the price bottom, and the psychological price ceiling of downstream buyers is rising. Although short - term price increases may suppress demand, in the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is stabilizing at a low level, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak, so the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term. The aluminum price is strong, with a tight - balance fundamentals, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost of aluminum alloy is rigidly supported, and the supply - demand is in a tight - balance. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but high inventory and policy uncertainties are constraints [5]. Zinc - The macro - environment is warm, and the supply of zinc is gradually increasing, but the increase may be limited. The demand is stable, and the LME has the risk of a short squeeze. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Due to the hawkish statement on interest rate cuts, the short - term tin price may fall, but it may rise if the supply from Myanmar does not recover well [11]. Nickel - The macro - environment is improving, and the cost is supported by the firm ore price. However, the inventory accumulation restricts the price increase. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment is positive, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short - term [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are improving, with increasing demand and tight raw material supply. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is pressure at the 83,000 level [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.16% to 87,905 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and the import volume increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.05% to 21,170 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 194.5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined price difference in Foshan decreased [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22,290 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased by 205.67 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.32% to 285,200 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 60% [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 160 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13% to 8714 tons, and the SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.20% to 121,900 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 226 yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel decreased by 0.62% to 116,448 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 4.81% to 36,075 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% to 41.85 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.83% to 79,150 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 320 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons, and the demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in August 2025 was 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year-on-year. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 33.0777%, a decrease of 4.31 percentage points from the previous week. The overall demand is below the historical average level, and the cost support is expected to weaken in the short term. It is predicted that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3252 - 3296 [8]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the strengthening expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. In terms of demand, the current demand is below the historical average. In terms of cost, the daily processing profit of asphalt increased by 30.70% compared with the previous period, the loss of asphalt processing increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Basis**: On October 29, the spot price in Shandong was 3280 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 6 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory and factory inventory continued to be destocked, while port inventory continued to accumulate, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, showing a bullish situation [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3252 - 3296 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [17]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [20]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report shows the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [23]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the crack spreads of asphalt with SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [26]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the price ratio trend of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [30]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Market Price Trends in Different Regions**: The report shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [33]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the profit trend of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [39]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the weekly shipment volume of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [44]. - **Production Volume**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [47]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the price of Marey crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [51]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the asphalt production of refineries, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [54]. - **开工率**: The report shows the weekly utilization rate of asphalt production capacity, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [57]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss volume, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [59]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the situation of exchange warehouse receipts, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [62]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the trends of social inventory and factory inventory, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [66]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report shows the factory inventory - to - stock ratio, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [69]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: The report shows the export and import trends of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [72]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report shows the import spread trend of Korean asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [77]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the production of petroleum coke, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [78]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the apparent consumption of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [81]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Related Indicators**: The report shows the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [84]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [88]. - **Asphalt Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Utilization Rate**: The report shows the utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [93]. - **Asphalt Utilization Rate by Purpose**: The report shows the utilization rates of construction asphalt and modified asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [96]. - **Downstream Utilization Situation**: The report shows the utilization rates of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [98]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [3]. - For methanol, the slow import unloading process has slowed down port inventory accumulation. The market's expectation of reduced imports has increased, and the disk price has stabilized. However, the market structure is weaker than in previous years, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For urea, the supply - side device maintenance has returned, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. The market is waiting for positive news, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [8]. - For rubber, the rubber price is oscillating. It is recommended to close short - term long positions and wait and see. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is high, and the price may stop falling periodically [16]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation [19]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has declined. The cost - side supply is in an oversupply situation, and the overall inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. - For PX, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The PX inventory is difficult to continuously decline. The valuation is at a neutral level and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [25]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - side maintenance volume has decreased, and the inventory is slightly increasing. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The valuation is affected by PTA maintenance, and it is recommended to pay attention to the impact of potential production - cut signals [26]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the import volume is increasing. The port inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter. The valuation is relatively high, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities [28]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures rose 11.00 yuan/barrel, a 2.52% increase, to 447.20 yuan/barrel. The high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 56.00 yuan/ton, a 2.13% increase, to 2691.00 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 71.00 yuan/ton, a 2.32% increase, to 3135.00 yuan/ton. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.02 million barrels to 13.61 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 5.11 million barrels to 14.77 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.04 million barrels to 23.03 million barrels, and the total refined oil inventory increased by 3.06 million barrels to 51.41 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, the price in Inner Mongolia remained stable, the price in southern Shandong decreased by 35 yuan, the 01 contract on the disk decreased by 27 yuan to 2241 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 31. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5 to - 62 [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The slow import unloading process has slowed down port inventory accumulation. The domestic production has declined, and the traditional demand has weakened. The market's expectation of reduced imports has increased, and the disk price has stabilized. However, the market structure is weaker than in previous years, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: The prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the disk decreased by 5 yuan to 1635 yuan, and the basis was - 55. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at - 73 [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side device maintenance has returned, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. The market is waiting for positive news, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price was oscillating. The long - position holders of natural rubber RU believed that factors such as weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, might limit rubber production increase, and there were positive expectations for demand. The short - position holders believed that the macro - economic outlook was uncertain, demand was in a seasonal off - peak, and the supply increase might be less than expected. As of October 23, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.29%, up 0.21 percentage points from the previous week and 2.81 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.49%, up 0.12 percentage points from the previous week but down 4.53 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire export orders slowed down. As of October 19, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1050000 tons, a decrease of 30000 tons, or 2.8%. The inventory in Qingdao was 427500 (- 19100) tons [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price is oscillating. It is recommended to close short - term long positions and wait and see. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 30 yuan to 4716 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4600 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 116 (+ 30) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 288 (- 2) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2500 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 800 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 765 (0) US dollars/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 76.6%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous period, with the calcium carbide method at 74.4% (a decrease of 0.3%) and the ethylene method at 81.6% (an increase of 0.4%). The overall downstream operating rate was 49.9%, an increase of 1.3%. The in - factory inventory was 334000 tons (- 27000), and the social inventory was 1035000 tons (+ 1000) [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of pure benzene in East China was 5485 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract of pure benzene was 5495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The basis of pure benzene was - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract of styrene was 6466 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton. The basis was - 16 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 109.37 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 539.15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton. The spread between EB contract 1 and contract 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, a decrease of 2.63%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports was 202500 tons, an increase of 60000 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 42.77%, a decrease of 0.16%. The operating rate of PS remained unchanged at 53.80%, the operating rate of EPS decreased by 0.54% to 61.98%, and the operating rate of ABS decreased by 0.30% to 72.80% [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is high, and the price may stop falling periodically [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6985 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7035 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 39 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a decrease of 0.56%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 514600 tons, a decrease of 14900 tons, and the inventory of traders was 50000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 45.75%, an increase of 0.83%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has declined. The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6657 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, an increase of 0.16%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 638500 tons, a decrease of 40200 tons, the inventory of traders was 220000 tons, a decrease of 18600 tons, and the port inventory was 66800 tons, a decrease of 1100 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52.37%, an increase of 0.52%. The LL - PP spread was 328 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has declined. The cost - side supply is in an oversupply situation, and the overall inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 8 yuan to 6618 yuan, the PX CFR price decreased by 7 US dollars to 814 US dollars. The basis was 30 yuan (- 51), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 16 yuan (+ 18). The PX load in China was 85.9%, an increase of 1%, and the Asian load was 78.5%, an increase of 0.5%. A 540000 - ton plant of PTTG in Thailand was under maintenance, and the maintenance in Saudi Arabia was postponed. The PTA load was 78.8%, an increase of 2.8%. Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load, some plants restored their loads, and a new plant of Dushan Energy was put into operation. In the first and middle of October, South Korea exported 256000 tons of PX to China, an increase of 19000 tons compared to the same period last year. The inventory at the end of August was 3918000 tons, an increase of 19000 tons compared to the previous month. The PXN was 243 US dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 101 US dollars (- 4) [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The PX inventory is difficult to continuously decline. The valuation is at a neutral level and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [25]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 2 yuan to 4614 yuan. The spot price in East China increased by 30 yuan to 4535 yuan. The basis was - 81 yuan (unchanged), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (- 2). The PTA load was 78.8%, an increase of 2.8%. Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load, some plants restored their loads, and a new plant of Dushan Energy was put into operation. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The terminal texturing load increased by 4% to 84%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 75%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 17 was 2176000 tons, an increase of 16000 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 69 yuan to 174 yuan, and the processing fee on the disk increased by 4 yuan to 273 yuan [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply - side maintenance volume has decreased, and the inventory is slightly increasing. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The valuation is affected by PTA maintenance, and it is recommended to pay attention to the impact of potential production - cut signals [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 4069 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 16 yuan to 4167 yuan. The basis was 76 yuan (- 8), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 83 yuan (unchanged). The supply - side operating rate of ethylene glycol was 73.3%, a decrease of 3.7%, with the synthetic gas method at 82.2% (an increase of 0.8%) and the ethylene method at 68.2% (a decrease of 6.3%). There were few changes in synthetic gas plants. In the oil - chemical sector, Fulian and Shenghong were under maintenance, CNOOC Shell restarted, and Zhongke Refining and Chemical had a short - term shutdown and then resumed. Overseas, Shell in the United States restarted. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The terminal texturing load increased by 4% to 84%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 75%. The forecast of imported arrivals was 198000 tons, and the departure volume from East China ports on October 27 was 8600 tons. The port inventory was 523000 tons, a decrease of 56000 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 628 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 561 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 261 yuan. The cost - side ethylene price remained unchanged at 765 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines increased to 680 yuan [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is high, and the import volume is increasing. The port inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter. The valuation is relatively high, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, Ethylene Glycol (MEG), Methanol, Urea, Asphalt [1][3][4][5][8] - **Cautiously bullish**: PTA, Natural Gas [3][8] - **Bearish rebound**: L, PP, PVC, Soda Ash [1][8] - **Bearish consolidation**: Glass [8] 2. Report's Core Views - **Overall**: The energy and chemical market is influenced by multiple factors including supply - demand dynamics, macro - policies, and cost fluctuations. Most products face supply - side pressures, while some demand shows short - term improvement but lacks long - term stability [1][3][4][5][8] - **Specific products**: - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ may expand production, leading to a supply surplus and downward pressure on oil prices [1][11][12] - **LPG**: Cost - side oil price correction leads to a weakening of LPG [1][17] - **PTA**: New device production and potential maintenance may balance supply, with short - term upward momentum due to "anti - involution" hype, but long - term supply remains loose [3][36] - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses prices, but demand shows slight improvement, and there is potential for long - term price increase [4][43] - **Urea**: Supply is relatively abundant, and although demand improves slightly, winter demand and export incentives are limited [5][47] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market situation**: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined, with WTI down 0.31%, Brent down 0.46%, and SC up 0.47% [10] - **Basic logic**: Short - term geopolitical factors cause price fluctuations, but the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to move down [11] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ may increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December. Indian imports and exports show certain changes, and US inventory data varies [12] - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions, add short positions lightly, and focus on the range of [460 - 470] for SC [13] 3.2 LPG - **Market situation**: On October 27, the PG main contract closed at 4,260 yuan/ton, up 0.35% [16] - **Basic logic**: It follows the cost - side oil price, with short - term geopolitical risk mitigation leading to a cost - side correction [17] - **Strategy**: Try short positions lightly and focus on the range of [4250 - 4350] [18] 3.3 L - **Market situation**: The L2601 contract closed at 6,999 yuan/ton [21] - **Basic logic**: Social inventory is slightly reduced, but supply remains loose, and cost support is insufficient [22] - **Strategy**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices, and follow the cost for short - term rebounds, focusing on the range of [6900 - 7100] [22] 3.4 PP - **Market situation**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton [26] - **Basic logic**: Spot price increase lags, demand faces de - stocking pressure, and oil - based cost support is weak [27] - **Strategy**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices, follow the cost for short - term rebounds, and focus on the range of [6600 - 6800] [27] 3.5 PVC - **Market situation**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton [30] - **Basic logic**: Low valuation supports, but single - product losses expand, and supply - demand surplus persists [31] - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices, and participate in short - term rebounds lightly, focusing on the range of [4600 - 4800] [31] 3.6 PX - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices show certain changes [32] - **Basic logic**: Supply - side device load decreases, demand improves in the short - term but weakens in the long - term, and cost - side oil price rebound is limited [33] - **Strategy**: Take profits on short - term long positions, look for opportunities to short at high prices, and consider arbitrage by expanding downstream processing fees, focusing on the range of [6550 - 6660] [34] 3.7 PTA - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices change, and inventory shows a decreasing trend [35] - **Basic logic**: New device production and potential maintenance relieve supply pressure, and short - term demand improves slightly [36] - **Strategy**: Lightly chase long positions, stop losses on short positions, and look for opportunities to short on rebounds in the long - term, focusing on the range of [4580 - 4660] [37] 3.8 MEG - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices change, and inventory slightly accumulates [38] - **Basic logic**: Domestic device load decreases, overseas slightly increases, and supply pressure is expected to rise [39] - **Strategy**: Close short - term long positions, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, focusing on the range of [4070 - 4140] [40] 3.9 Methanol - **Market situation**: High inventory suppresses prices, and demand shows slight improvement [43] - **Basic logic**: Supply - side pressure remains, demand improves slightly, and cost support is weak but stable [43] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully, consider long positions on the 01 contract at low prices, and focus on MA1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, focusing on the range of [2240 - 2280] [45] 3.10 Urea - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices change, and inventory accumulates [46] - **Basic logic**: Supply is abundant, demand improves slightly, but winter demand and export incentives are limited [47] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully, and consider long positions in the medium - to - long - term, focusing on the range of [1615 - 1645] [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For oil prices, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term bearishness is not advisable. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, with slow import unloading, slower port inventory accumulation, and potential supply disruptions from winter gas - fired plant shutdowns, the downward momentum of the futures price is expected to be limited, and it's advisable to wait and see [6]. - For urea, with supply device maintenance returning and demand from compound fertilizer production rising, the inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. Although consumption lacks positive factors, the downward space of the spot price is limited, and it's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [8][10]. - For rubber, as the positive factors for rubber prices are diminishing, it's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and wait and see. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [10][12]. - For PVC, with continuous decline in enterprise comprehensive profits, high production, weak domestic demand, and poor export prospects in the fourth quarter, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium term [13][14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, with the decline in pure benzene and styrene prices, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The high port inventory of styrene may lead to a phased stop of price decline [16][17]. - For polyethylene, with cost - side support from the rebound of crude oil prices, high - level inventory reduction, and seasonal demand recovery, the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [19][20]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the high number of warehouse receipts and supply - surplus pattern on the cost side suppress the futures price [22][23]. - For PX, with high load and difficulty in continuous inventory reduction, it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil prices. A potential PTA production - cut signal may have a negative feedback on PX prices [23][24]. - For PTA, with short - term inventory accumulation and weak long - term prospects, if there is a production - cut signal, it will benefit PTA processing fees but may have a negative impact on PX prices [24][25]. - For ethylene glycol, with high domestic supply, increasing imports, and expected continuous inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [26][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 2.70 yuan/barrel, or 0.58%, at 468.90 yuan/barrel. China's weekly crude oil arrival inventory decreased by 0.53 million barrels to 212.44 million barrels, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.25% [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, and wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 10 yuan, remained stable in Inner Mongolia, and decreased by 20 yuan in southern Shandong. The 01 contract of the futures price decreased by 4 yuan to 2268 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 38 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: With slow import unloading and potential supply disruptions, the downward momentum of the futures price is limited. It's advisable to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased. The 01 contract of the futures price decreased by 2 yuan to 1640 yuan, with a basis of - 60 yuan [7]. - **Strategy**: With supply device maintenance returning and demand from compound fertilizer production rising, the inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. The downward space of the spot price is limited, and it's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [8][10]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The positive factors for rubber prices are diminishing. As of October 23, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong enterprises was 65.29%, and that of semi - steel tires in domestic enterprises was 74.49%. As of October 19, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1050000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30000 tons [10]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and wait and see. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC increased by 38 yuan to 4746 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 146 yuan. The overall operating rate was 76.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. Factory inventory was 334000 tons, and social inventory was 1035000 tons [12]. - **Strategy**: With continuous decline in enterprise comprehensive profits, high production, weak domestic demand, and poor export prospects in the fourth quarter, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium term [13][14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased. The BZN spread was 109.87 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 dollars/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, a decrease of 2.63%, and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.60 million tons to 20.25 million tons [16]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The high port inventory of styrene may lead to a phased stop of price decline [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polyethylene closed at 7024 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 million tons to 51.46 million tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 45.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.83% [19]. - **Strategy**: With cost - side support from the rebound of crude oil prices, high - level inventory reduction, and seasonal demand recovery, the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polypropylene closed at 6699 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, a month - on - month increase of 0.16%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 million tons to 63.85 million tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 52.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52% [21][22]. - **Strategy**: In a situation of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the high number of warehouse receipts and supply - surplus pattern on the cost side suppress the futures price [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PX increased by 104 yuan to 6626 yuan. The Chinese load was 85.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The inventory at the end of August was 391.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.9 million tons [23]. - **Strategy**: With high load and difficulty in continuous inventory reduction, it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil prices. A potential PTA production - cut signal may have a negative feedback on PX prices [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PTA increased by 98 yuan to 4616 yuan. The PTA load was 78.8%, a month - on - month increase of 2.8%. The social inventory on October 17 was 217.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6 million tons [24]. - **Strategy**: With short - term inventory accumulation and weak long - term prospects, if there is a production - cut signal, it will benefit PTA processing fees but may have a negative impact on PX prices [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of ethylene glycol increased by 32 yuan to 4109 yuan. The supply - side load was 73.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7%. The port inventory decreased by 5.6 million tons to 52.3 million tons [26]. - **Strategy**: With high domestic supply, increasing imports, and expected continuous inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [27].