招商期货有限公司 市场表现：6 月 4 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.42%，报收 3376.2 点；深成指 上涨 0.87%，报收 10144.58 点；创业板指上涨 1.11%，报收 2024.93 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.45%， 报收 986.11 点。市场成交 11,774 亿元，较前日增加 136 亿元。行业板块方面，美容护理(+2.63%)， 综合(+2.53%)，纺织服饰(+2.41%)涨幅居前；交通运输(-0.58%)，国防军工(-0.24%)，公用事业 (-0.12%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,964/211/1,237。沪深两 市，机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 23、-26、-45、48 亿元，分别变动+49、+40、-27、 -62 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 160.37、120.01、65.54 与 47.42 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-19.84%、-15.84%、-12.83%与-13.35%，三年期历史分位数分别为 4%、5%、1%及 5%。 期- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean/M粕类**: International soybeans are in a high - yield pattern, with high production in Brazil and Argentina. In China, the pressure of soybean arrival is increasing, and although the demand is good, there is an obvious pressure of bean粕 inventory accumulation [2][3][5]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar is dragged down by the expected high yield in Brazil and its trend is weak. In China, due to the lag in summer stocking demand and the short - term weak trend of raw sugar, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain weak [7][10]. - **Oils and Fats**: The rumor of India's tax reduction was refuted, and the Malaysian palm oil market declined. It is expected that Malaysian palm oil will continue to increase production and accumulate inventory in May. The inventory accumulation speed of domestic soybean oil may slow down, and the supply of rapeseed oil exceeds demand, but the decline space is limited [15][18]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The sowing of US corn is accelerating, and the external corn price is falling. In China, the supply of corn is relatively low, and the spot price is stable. The futures price has strong support [23][26]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is relatively loose, and the price is expected to be weak [30]. - **Peanuts**: The spot trading volume of peanuts is still low, and the price of new - season peanuts in Henan is rising. The import volume has decreased significantly. The downstream consumption is still weak, and the price of peanut粕 is stable. The price of peanut oil is strong, but the market for oil - using peanuts is weak. The price of 10 - contract peanuts is expected to have limited rebound space [32][34]. - **Eggs**: The overall supply of eggs is sufficient, and the egg price has stabilized recently. It is recommended to close out short positions and wait and see [41][45]. - **Apples**: Currently in the weather - trading peak, the recent rainfall in Shaanxi has alleviated the drought. In the consumption off - season, the spot market sales have slowed down, but the low inventory supports the price. The 2510 contract is expected to have limited downward space [49][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The market is mainly dominated by macro factors. The uncertainty has increased, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to leave the market and wait and see [54][58]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.58% to 1045.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT bean粕 index rose 0.53% to 301.8 dollars per short ton [2]. - **Related Information**: Forecasts for USDA export sales, EU rapeseed production increase, potential slowdown in Brazilian soybean exports, and domestic oil - mill data on soybean and bean粕 inventory [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral - wait and see; Arbitrage - M11 - 1 positive spread, MRM09 spread widening; Options - sell wide - straddle strategy [6]. Sugar - **External Market**: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.14 (0.83%) to 17.04 cents per pound [7]. - **Important Information**: Data on Brazilian port sugar waiting for shipment, India's sugar domestic sales quota, Yunnan's sugar production and sales, and the decline in average yield and sugar - output per ton of sugarcane in Brazil's 2025/26 season [8][9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral - Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short term; Arbitrage - wait and see; Options - virtual - value ratio spread options [11][12][13]. Oils and Fats - **External Market**: Overnight, CBOT US soybean oil main price changed by 0.96% to 48.39 cents per pound; BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by - 0.76% to 3903 ringgit per ton [15]. - **Related Information**: Malaysia's plan to increase biodiesel blending ratio, USDA export sales forecasts for US soybeans, bean粕, and soybean oil, and Canada's rapeseed export and inventory data [16][17]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral - oils and fats are expected to fluctuate, and palm oil can be short - sold at the upper edge of the range; Arbitrage - wait and see; Options - wait and see [19][20][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market**: CBOT corn futures fell, with the main contract down 0.3% to 447.5 cents per bushel [23]. - **Important Information**: CBOT soft red winter wheat price increase, feed enterprise inventory data, corn processing enterprise inventory data, and corn price stability in North ports and North China [25]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral - the 07 - contract corn has support around 440 cents per bushel, close out long positions and wait and see; Arbitrage - conduct oscillatory operations on corn - starch spread, go long on 09 - contract starch and short 09 - contract corn when the price is low; Options - those with spot can consider the strategy of selling put options when the price is high [27][28]. Pigs - **Related Information**: Pig price stability in different regions, changes in piglet and sow prices, and changes in the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and pork wholesale price [30]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral - the price is expected to fluctuate; Arbitrage - LH79 reverse spread; Options - sell wide - straddle strategy [31]. Peanuts - **Important Information**: Peanut prices in different regions, arrival and transaction prices at oil mills, peanut oil and peanut粕 prices, and inventory data of peanut and peanut oil [32][33]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral - short the 10 - contract peanuts when the price is high; Arbitrage - wait and see; Options - sell pk510 - C - 8600 options [35][36][37]. Eggs - **Important Information**: Egg price changes in main production and sales areas, data on the number of laying hens in production, egg - chick hatching volume, egg - chicken culling volume, egg sales volume, inventory, and profit [41][42][43]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral - close out short positions and wait and see; Arbitrage - go long on 08 - contract and short 09 - contract; Options - wait and see [45][46][47]. Apples - **Important Information**: Apple cold - storage inventory, export and import data, market conditions, prices, and storage - merchant profits [49][50][51]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral - buy the 10 - contract apples at low prices; Arbitrage - wait and see; Options - wait and see [57][53]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market**: ICE US cotton fell, with the main contract down 0.30 (0.46%) to 65.03 cents per pound [54]. - **Important Information**: Indian cotton weekly and cumulative listing volume, US cotton planting rate, and the news about US tariff administrative orders [55][58]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral - US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate; Arbitrage - wait and see; Options - wait and see [59][60][61].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 26 日 公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽油脂苹果研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 白糖油运：黄 莹 期货从业证号：F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 原木造纸：朱四祥 期货从业证号F03127108 投资咨询号：Z0020124 【逻辑分析】 巴西整体呈现丰产格局，加之国内压榨表现一般，大豆市场总体供应偏宽松。阿根 廷产量同样维持高位，近期压榨量下降同样对后续供应产生压力。美豆新作种植推进顺 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 【外盘情况】 CBOT大豆指数上涨0.45%至1057.75美分/蒲，CBOT豆粕指数上涨0.33%至302.2 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.油世界：巴西大多数地区收获已经完成，部分州单产结果相对更高。但是南里奥 格兰州单产只有 2 吨/公顷，预估比上年减少 500-600 万吨。但是在此背景下 ...

2025.05.19-05.23 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型分析螺纹钢期货主力合约本周 运行区间为3130至2980，建议关注3130一线的压力位置。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量226万吨，表观消费量260万吨，主要钢厂库存185万 吨，社会库存650万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于下行通道中。 2 目录 中线行情分析 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 中线策略建议 3 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略，参考运行区间为 3130至2980，可留意3130一线的压力位置。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 钢材生产企业可考虑分步实施50%现货比例的卖出保值策略。 相关数据情况 品种交易策略 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相 ...

2025.05.12-05.16 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型分析螺纹钢期货主力合约本周 运行区间为2950至3080，建议关注3080一线的压力位置。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量233万吨，表观消费量214万吨，主要钢厂库存188万 吨，社会库存685万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于下行通道中。 2 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 中线策略建议 3 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略，参考运行区间为 2950至3080，可留意3080一线的压力位置。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 钢材生产企业可考虑分步实施50%现货比例的卖出保值策略。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相 ...

2025.05.06-05.09 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 中线行情分析 长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型分析螺纹钢期货主力合约2510 本周运行区间为3030至3180，建议关注3180一线的压力区间。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 目录 螺纹钢周度产量233万吨，表观消费量291万吨，主要钢厂库存173万 吨，社会库存694万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于下行通道中。 2 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 n 本周策略建议 现货客户可考虑在3150至3050区域分步实施卖出保值策略。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 钢材生产企业可考虑在3150至3050区域分步实施50%现货比 例的卖出保值策略。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据 ...