1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The biggest fundamental contradiction in the electrolytic copper market is the reduced supply growth rate and increased mining and refining costs after the global copper mines enter the depletion stage. The general strategy for electrolytic copper is to go long after a pullback. [6] - Before Trump's mid - term election in November, geopolitical issues and interference policies in Sino - US trade need to be monitored. Due to its financial attributes, copper is the best hedging variety after gold and silver. It is advisable to buy on dips after the price stabilizes and avoid chasing high before breaking through the 105,000 level. Also, basis trading can be attempted after the resumption of work accelerates after the Lantern Festival. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Report Summary - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Before Trump's mid - term election, geopolitical instability factors will not end with Iran. The conflict between the US and Iran in the Middle East has no direct impact on the copper fundamentals, but the financial attributes of copper have attracted the attention of hedging funds. The uncertainty of macro - factors will provide bottom support for copper prices. [4] - **Copper Concentrate**: After the festival, trading has not recovered actively, and the TC price continues to decline. As of March 2, the TC quote remained at -$51, and the market rumor is that the TC quote for April shipment is -$55, indicating that the tight supply of copper concentrate has not eased. [4] - **Electrolytic Copper**: The copper price has pulled up after a retracement, but there is pressure on spot sales, and the discount has deepened. In 2026, the copper price has fluctuated between 100,000 - 105,000. As downstream production has not fully recovered, both social inventory and bonded area inventory have increased. [4] - **Downstream Demand**: It will take time for downstream demand to fully recover. After the Lantern Festival, the "Golden March and Silver April" demand peak will be verified. High copper prices have made downstream processing enterprises and end - users cautious in purchasing. Orders in the construction and home appliance industries are flat, while those in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic fields are relatively stable, but they cannot reverse the overall weak demand. [5] 3.2 Electrolytic Copper Market Price - **Upstream Market Price**: The TC price remains at a low level. The market rumor is that the TC quote for April shipment of copper concentrate is -$55, and the tight supply situation has not improved. [4] - **Futures and Spot Market Price**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has pushed up the premium of warehouse receipts. [15] - **Overseas Position Data**: The speculative atmosphere overseas has significantly increased. [22] 3.3 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory - **Upstream Supply**: The supply - side growth rate is limited. [30] - **Production and Inventory**: The total production and operating rate of electrolytic copper, as well as its production cost, profit, and inventory data are presented. [35][37][39] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data and Downstream Consumption - **US Dollar Index and US Treasury Yield**: After non - farm payroll data, the US dollar has remained unexpectedly strong. [41] - **US Economic Data**: The unexpected non - farm payroll data in August has further increased the expectation of interest rate cuts. Indicators such as employment, market confidence, retail sales, and inventory are presented. [50] - **Chinese Economic Data**: In July, the new loans turned negative, and the PMI is slightly above the boom - bust line. Indicators such as M1, M2, social financing scale, and consumer retail sales are presented. [62][69] - **Chinese Copper Downstream Consumption Data**: The power grid and new energy sectors support the demand for copper. Data on electrolytic copper demand, terminal production growth rate, and fixed - asset investment growth rate are provided. [76]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, the inventory inflow speed of port cotton has slowed down, while the outflow speed is acceptable due to increased downstream procurement after the festival. As of February 26th, the inventory at major import cotton ports was 538,100 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. [2] - Xinjiang textile enterprises have basically resumed work, the spinning operation rate has rebounded, and the finished product inventory has increased. They are mainly shipping pre - ordered products. [2] - The current market is in the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April", and the short - term upward trend of cotton prices remains unchanged. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 15,250 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 197,667 lots, down 5,134 lots; main contract cotton holding volume: 768,267 lots, up 62 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 11,390 lots, up 11 lots. [2] - Cotton yarn main contract closing price: 21,055 yuan/ton, unchanged; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 1,799 lots, down 264 lots; main contract cotton yarn holding volume: 14,331 lots, up 321 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 0 lots, unchanged. [2] Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 16,583 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s): 21,920 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 12,461 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding duty): 13,651 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan. [2] - Arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s): 21,826 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32s): 23,398 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons. [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - cotton yarn price difference: 5,337 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 861,000 tons, up 13,000 tons. [2] - Cotton import volume (monthly): 180,000 tons, up 60,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume (monthly): 170,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. [2] - Imported cotton profit: 2,932 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 5.7887 million tons, up 4,000 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - Inventory days of yarn: 21.71 days, down 3.41 days; inventory days of grey cloth: 33.13 days, down 0.63 days. [2] - Monthly cloth output: 3.01 billion meters, up 200 million meters; monthly yarn output: 2.132 million tons, up 93,000 tons. [2] - Monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 134,124,120,000 US dollars, up 18,187,260,000 US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 125,796,030,000 US dollars, up 3,038,700,000 US dollars. [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for cotton: 17.45%, up 1.29%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for cotton: 17.45%, up 1.29%. [2] - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 18.25%, down 0.12%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 13.76%, up 0.02%. [2] Industry News - Australian industry institutions reported that Australia's cotton output in the 2024/25 season was 5.4 million bales, and cotton exports continued to grow. From March to December 2025, the cumulative exports were 5.07 million bales, accounting for 95% of the total output, the second - highest in history. [2] - Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed higher on Wednesday, rebounding from the nearly two - week low hit in the previous trading day, as investors bought on dips and the US dollar weakened. The ICE May cotton futures contract rose 0.12 cents, or 0.19%, to settle at 64.16 cents per pound. [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly and remained in high - level oscillation. Spot basis was stable, and spot trading was average. Downstream demand feedback was weak in the short term [2] - US cotton was strong, with expected reduction in 2026 planting area. Domestic commercial inventory was digested well, and the expectation of tight supply continued [2] - After continuous short - term rises, cautious operation was recommended [2] Sugar - Overnight US sugar oscillated. In Brazil, less rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas after the rainy season was unfavorable for sugarcane growth, and the sugar - making ratio was expected to decline, leading to a decrease in sugar production in the 26/27 season [3] - Zhengzhou sugar was strong. As of January 31, 2025/26 season, national sugar production and sales progress was slow, with production and sales volume decreasing year - on - year and industrial inventory increasing [3] - Temporary waiting - and - seeing was recommended [3] Apple - Futures prices rose with significant position increase. Spot prices were stable. After the Spring Festival, procurement enthusiasm in the northwest producing areas increased, and the delivery speed accelerated [4] - As of February 27, national cold - storage apple inventory decreased by 5.88% year - on - year, and the delivery volume increased by 32.49% year - on - year [4] - The trading logic was mainly on the demand side. Temporary waiting - and - seeing was recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR futures prices rose and then fell, butadiene rubber BR futures prices fluctuated violently. Domestic natural rubber spot prices fell, and synthetic rubber spot prices rose [6] - Global natural rubber supply was in the low - production period, and the domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate increased. In February, China's heavy - truck sales decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the domestic tire operating rate recovered [6] - Natural rubber and 20 - rubber were recommended for waiting - and - seeing, and butadiene rubber was expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - Domestic pulp port inventory was still at a high level. As of February 26, 2026, the inventory was 240.1 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [7] - Overseas pulp quotes were strong, providing some cost support, but demand was average, and downstream paper prices and profits were poor [7] - The pulp price was expected to oscillate in a range in the medium term [7] Timber - Futures prices oscillated, and the spot price at Rizhao Port increased by 20 yuan. The external offer was low, and the domestic spot price was weak. The short - term arrival volume would decrease [8] - Due to the Spring Festival shutdown, the downstream delivery volume was small. As of February 27, the national port log inventory decreased by 15.3% year - on - year [8] - Temporary waiting - and - seeing was recommended [8]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" aims to optimize housing purchase policies, reduce purchase thresholds, and support families with multiple children, which is expected to boost market confidence and activity in the real estate sector [1][7]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The "Shanghai Seven Measures" includes significant reductions in housing purchase thresholds, allowing more potential first-time buyers to enter the market and enhancing market liquidity [3][4]. - The policy also increases the public housing fund loan limit from approximately 1 million yuan to over 3 million yuan, significantly easing the financial burden on first-time homebuyers [4][7]. - The measures expand the coverage of eligible buyers, including those with residence permits for over five years, thereby increasing the potential buyer base in the central urban areas [6][8]. Group 2: Market Response - Following the implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures," there was no immediate surge in market activity, attributed to factors such as weather conditions and the time lag in policy effects [2][3]. - Real estate agents reported a lack of significant increase in new customer inquiries, indicating that the market may take time to respond to the new policies [3][6]. - The overall transaction volume for second-hand homes in Shanghai was approximately 11,000 units in February, reflecting a year-on-year decline of over 30% and a month-on-month decline of over 50% [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the "Shanghai Seven Measures" will lead to a stabilization in the real estate market, with expectations of a "small spring" in market activity as buyer confidence is restored [1][7]. - The measures are expected to create a synergistic effect between purchase restrictions and public fund support, potentially releasing pent-up demand and stimulating both new and second-hand housing markets [7][8]. - The current market dynamics indicate a shift towards a stock market, with the ratio of new to second-hand homes at 1:5, suggesting increased activity in the second-hand market and improved interconnectivity between the two segments [8].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The precious metals market is influenced by geopolitical risks, particularly regarding Iran, leading to price increases; gold rose by 2.63% and silver by 8.40% this week [5] - Copper prices are expected to rise as downstream purchasing sentiment improves, with copper increasing by 2.37% this week; the market is currently experiencing a supply-demand mismatch [6] - Aluminum prices are also expected to rise, with a 0.85% increase this week, as supply and demand dynamics improve post-holiday [6] - Lithium prices are volatile due to Zimbabwe's export ban on lithium ore, which could significantly impact domestic supply if the ban lasts over two months [7] - Tungsten prices are expected to maintain a strong trend due to rising prices both domestically and internationally, with a notable increase of 13.56% overseas [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 10528.63, with a 52-week high of 11180.33 and a low of 4295.55 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals: LME copper increased by 0.77%, aluminum by 1.00%, zinc decreased by 2.35%, lead increased by 0.03%, and tin surged by 15.41% [20] - Precious metals: COMEX gold rose by 2.63%, silver by 8.40%, NYMEX palladium by 1.02%, and platinum by 9.07% [20] - New energy metals: LME nickel decreased by 1.23%, cobalt remained stable, and lithium carbonate increased by 13.16% [20] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventory changes: copper increased by 24006 tons, aluminum by 699 tons, zinc by 5541 tons, lead decreased by 1785 tons, tin decreased by 468 tons, and nickel increased by 1855 tons [33]

2026 年 3 月 2 日 棉花：预计维持偏强走势 20260302 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 国内棉纺织企业概况：根据 TTEB 信息显示，纯棉纱报价整体持稳，市场交投氛围尚未完全恢复。少 数节前订单较差纺企尚未全面开机，而部分对节后"金三银四"行情持乐观预期的纺企已实现满负荷生 产，交付年前订单的同时提前为旺季备货。市场看涨心态较为浓厚，不过实际成交仍以观望为主。 美棉概况：上周五 ICE 棉花期货小幅上涨，受原油上涨和空头回补影响。 【趋势强度】 棉花趋势强度：1 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 CY2605 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 15,395 21,245 | 0.29% -0.05% | 15295 21150 | -0.65% -0.45% | | | ICE美棉5 | 美分/磅 | 65.56 | 0.29% | | - ...

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" and the rating is maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The upcoming peak season is anticipated to improve steel demand, supported by macro policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply [8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a list of companies that meet the new steel industry standards, indicating a shift towards high-quality development in the sector [12] - The successful operation of the Simandou iron ore project is expected to lower production costs for steel manufacturers and enhance their profitability [12] Supply - The average daily output of molten iron this week was 2.33 million tons, showing a slight week-on-week increase of 1.21%, while rebar production decreased by 2.40% to 1.65 million tons [13][15] - The capacity utilization rate for long-process rebar increased slightly by 0.26 percentage points, while short-process rebar utilization decreased by 5.31 percentage points [15] Inventory - Total social and steel mill inventories increased significantly by 27.96% week-on-week, with a total of 12.96 million tons [21] - Rebar inventory rose by 34.15% week-on-week, while the overall inventory level remains lower compared to the previous year [21] Demand - The apparent consumption of five major steel products totaled 5.65 million tons this week, reflecting a significant decrease of 18.06% [23][24] - Rebar consumption saw the largest decline, dropping by 67.08% week-on-week [24] Cost and Profitability - The cost of long-process rebar decreased slightly by 0.48% week-on-week, while short-process costs increased by 2.95% [30][31] - Long-process rebar profitability increased by 16 yuan, while short-process profitability decreased by 97 yuan [30] Steel Prices - The overall steel price index fell by 0.14% this week, with all steel product price indices showing a decline [35][36] - The price of hot-rolled steel decreased by 0.37% to 3,243 yuan per ton [35] Sector Performance - The steel sector saw a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.98% and the Shenwan Steel Index increasing by 12.27% [40][41] - Among the steel stocks, Changbao Co. had the highest increase [46]

Market Overview - National housing prices are nearing valuation bottom, with a high probability of stabilizing within the year[1] - The current decline in housing prices is narrowing, with key cities showing signs of stabilization[1] Key Indicators - The recovery of second-hand housing listings and rental prices will be crucial for future price trends[1] - After the Spring Festival, second-hand housing listings in core cities have generally increased, indicating potential market recovery[1] New Housing Market - In the week of February 21-28, new housing transaction volume in 47 cities increased by 26.6% year-on-year, despite a seasonal decline[4] - The transition from off-season to peak season is expected to improve new housing transactions as developers increase supply[4] Second-Hand Housing Market - In the same week, second-hand housing transaction volume in 22 cities remained stable compared to the previous year[7] - Key cities showed a month-on-month price change of 0.2% for first-tier cities, -0.2% for second-tier, and -0.3% for third-tier cities, with Shanghai seeing a 0.4% improvement[7] Policy Impact - Shanghai's new policies include relaxing purchase restrictions and increasing public housing loan limits, aimed at boosting demand[13] - The maximum public housing loan for first-time buyers has been raised from 1.6 million to 2.4 million yuan, enhancing affordability for buyers[14] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected declines in housing prices, increased corporate debt risks, and macroeconomic downturns[2][18]

点击图片▲立即查看 " 每年年底到次年初，房价跌幅都有不同程度的收窄，原因在于，房东们想要等待 ' 金三银四 ' 的行情，所以不再主动降价。 " 文 /巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 开春了，上海市中心的房东们也"心生荡漾"。 几天前，上海打响新春稳楼市第一枪，简称"新沪七条"。 上海的楼市政策总是很费脑细胞，但综合多方的阅读理解后，这一次的本质，便是给房东们"拉生意"。 | 政策类型 | 原政策 | 新沪七条调整内容 | | --- | --- | --- | | 非沪籍限购(社保维度) | 1年社保仅购外环外:3年社 | 1年社保可购全市(外环内1 套):3年社保外环内限购2 | | | 保外环内限购1套 | 套 | | 非沪籍限购(居住证维度) | 无单独购房通道,仅认社保 | 居住证满5年,免社保/个税 | | | /个税 | 可购全市1套 | | 公积金直贷额度 | 家庭最高160万元 | 家庭最高240万元,多子女 | | | | +绿建最高324万元 | | 公积金贷款认定 | 认房又认贷,两次贷款后不 可再贷 | 认房不认贷,结清后无房/ 仅1 周 中 分 | | 沪籍房产税 | 成年子女首 ...

Core Viewpoint - The glass industry is currently experiencing weak demand and inventory accumulation, with prices showing slight adjustments in various regions, while the overall market remains cautious post-holiday [1][4][5]. Supply and Production - As of February 26, 2026, the national float glass daily production is 148,600 tons, with an industry operating rate of 70.61%. The weekly production is 1,038,400 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.23% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% [1]. - The supply side has not seen significant changes during the holiday, with no new production lines expected to start due to environmental policy constraints [1][6]. Cost and Profitability - The average profit for float glass using natural gas as fuel is -142.26 CNY/ton, showing a month-on-month increase of 24.29 CNY/ton. In contrast, coal gas and petroleum coke have profits of -30.79 CNY/ton and 43.93 CNY/ton, respectively, with the latter remaining stable [2]. - The overall cost pressures are expected to rise due to the transition to gas as a fuel source, impacting the industry's cost structure [6]. Inventory Levels - As of February 26, 2026, the total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises is 76.008 million heavy boxes, marking a month-on-month increase of 2.0656 million heavy boxes (37.32%) and a year-on-year increase of 13.22%. The inventory days have increased to 33.8 days, up by 9.4 days from the previous period [2][4]. Demand and Market Conditions - The downstream demand has not yet recovered, with the main consumption areas slowly resuming operations. The Low-e market is particularly quiet, with limited transactions during the holiday period [4]. - The overall market sentiment is characterized by "neutral expectations and weak realities," with significant differentiation in the chemical market, leading to a decline in glass and related chemical products [4][5]. Price Trends - Current spot prices for float glass in Hubei and Shahe are at 1,110 CNY/ton and 1,030 CNY/ton, respectively, with futures prices also declining to around 981 CNY/ton and 1,058 CNY/ton, both near yearly lows [4][5]. - The market is expected to experience fluctuations around the average cost line, with a projected trading range for the main glass contract between 1,000 CNY/ton and 1,100 CNY/ton [6].