Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut, bringing the federal funds target rate to a range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the beginning of the second phase of rate cuts [1] - This rate cut is characterized as a preemptive measure aimed at mitigating potential economic and financial risks amid signs of localized economic slowdown, rather than a crisis response [1] - The Fed is expected to continue with moderate rate cuts in the remaining quarter of the year, potentially implementing 1-2 additional cuts depending on economic growth and inflation trends [1] Group 2 - There has been a significant outflow of funds from the U.S. stock market, with approximately $259 billion net outflow from U.S. long-term equity mutual funds in the first half of the year, and a record outflow of $357.4 billion in July alone [1][2] - The majority of the outflow has shifted towards U.S. bond and money markets, indicating a preference for safer assets rather than a large-scale migration to foreign stock markets [3] - Despite the outflow from U.S. equities, the global allocation remains predominantly in U.S. stocks, with fund managers maintaining around 60% allocation to U.S. equities [2] Group 3 - The inflow of foreign capital into Chinese stocks and funds has reversed a two-year trend of net selling, with a net increase of $10.1 billion in the first half of 2025, indicating a growing interest in the Chinese market [2] - European markets have also benefited from the outflow of funds from the U.S., with countries like Germany, Spain, and Italy experiencing double-digit gains this year [2] - The current trend of capital reallocation reflects a cautious approach by investors, driven by concerns over the U.S. economy, high valuations, and policy uncertainties [3] Group 4 - As the Fed continues its moderate preemptive rate cut strategy, a portion of "smart money" may seek opportunities in global markets, particularly in developed markets like Europe and Japan, while emerging markets may see more structural inflows [4] - The potential for aggressive rate cuts under pressure from the Trump administration could lead to a temporary boost in global markets due to increased liquidity, benefiting both developed and emerging markets [5] - However, the risk of rapid capital outflows remains if the Fed is forced to tighten monetary policy in response to rising inflation, which could negatively impact global markets, especially in emerging economies with high external debt [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of crude oil in the fourth quarter are bearish, but it is difficult for prices to decline significantly due to multiple supports [1] - The price of crude oil in the fourth quarter is expected to be weak but difficult to fall sharply. The support level is around $60 - 62 per barrel for Brent, and in extreme cases, it may reach above $72 per barrel [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.1 Core Views - Macro - level: The global economy shows a pattern of "weak recovery but no recession". The preventive interest rate cuts by the Fed in September, October, and December will reduce the holding cost of the commodity market, provide liquidity support for crude oil, and prevent a sharp decline due to macro - pessimism [1] - Demand side: Demand remains resilient as the macro - economy is not in recession. High cracking spreads of refined oil products and inventory replenishment in the US and Europe, along with global off - balance - sheet demand, form double supports [2] - Supply side: The implementation rate of OPEC+ production increase is difficult to improve significantly, and the incremental potential of US shale oil is limited. The actual supply increase in the fourth quarter is expected to be lower than the theoretical value [3] - Global pattern: The regional supply - demand differentiation will continue, with tight supply in the US and Europe and relatively loose supply in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific. Geopolitical conflicts may break the loose supply expectation in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific [3] 1.3 Market Outlook - The core operating range for Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter is $60 - 70 per barrel, with the price fluctuating due to short - term macro - sentiment and geopolitical disturbances [7] - Investors are advised to go long when Brent is at $60 - 62 per barrel and go short at $68 - 70 per barrel, with stop - loss levels set below $58 per barrel and above $72 per barrel respectively [7] Chapter 2: Market Review - In the third quarter, the international crude oil market was affected by geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic factors, showing a volatile and weak trend without a clear unilateral trend [10] - In July, the market was driven by a mix of long and short factors; in August, it was first bearish and then bullish; in September, the market focus switched rapidly between long and short factors [10] Chapter 3: Key Focus Points 3.1 Macro - level - The preventive interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 (25BP in September, and expected 25BP each in October and December) will reduce the holding cost of crude oil, and the non - commercial net long positions of WTI have significant room for replenishment [16] - The inflation pressure in the US and the eurozone has not completely subsided. Crude oil, as an anti - inflation commodity, has room for valuation repair [18] - Attention should be paid to the risk of "policy effectiveness verification". If the US manufacturing PMI is weak and non - farm employment decreases, it may suppress crude oil demand expectations; otherwise, the OVX index may rise [20] - External pressure on the Fed has weakened market confidence in policy independence, increasing the "dollar credit weakening" expectation. The short - term crude oil price is more driven by macro - sentiment [21] 3.2 Demand side - In the US and Europe, the cracking spreads of diesel are high, inventories are low, and refinery capacity is constrained. The expected lower temperature in Europe in the fourth quarter will increase heating demand and support cracking spreads [25] - Global off - balance - sheet demand, including inventory replenishment in China, the US, and floating storage in Russia and Iran, will absorb 30 - 43 barrels per day of supply in the fourth quarter, slowing down the inventory accumulation [29] 3.3 Supply side - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 13.7 barrels per day starting from October, but the implementation rate is expected to be around 75% in the fourth quarter, with an actual increase of about 80 barrels per day due to capacity and policy constraints [34] - The incremental potential of US shale oil is limited due to profit and cost constraints. The output increase in the fourth quarter is expected to be less than 10 barrels per day [36] 3.4 Global Pattern - The global crude oil market will maintain a pattern of "tight in the US and Europe, and relatively loose in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific" in the fourth quarter, but geopolitical risks may change the situation in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific [40] - The supply from Russia is at risk due to short - term facility disturbances and long - term regulatory and tariff pressures. The restart of the Iran - Israel conflict may disrupt the supply in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific [42] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Global Crude Oil Supply - Demand Overview - At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the global crude oil market showed a pattern of "supply expansion, demand differentiation, and increased short - term surplus pressure" [44] - On the supply side, OPEC+ completed the voluntary production cut exit plan and started to increase production in September. Non - OPEC supply remained resilient [44] - On the demand side, the global growth rate slowed down, and institutional forecasts were divergent. Asia - Pacific became the core of growth, and the demand for chemical raw materials increased [44] - There was a production - demand surplus in 2025, and the Brent price is expected to oscillate between $55 - 75 per barrel in the long - term [45] 4.2 Global Crude Oil Industry Chain Valuation Tracking - In the third quarter, the crude oil monthly spreads showed a significant differentiation pattern. Brent and WTI maintained a slight Backwardation structure, while Dubai and domestic SC crude oil monthly spreads were weak [48][49] - The regional spreads of crude oil showed a pattern of "strengthening across the Atlantic and reversing in Eurasia". The Brent - WTI spread strengthened, and the Dubai - WTI spread reversed from a premium to a discount [52] 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - In the third quarter, the crude oil cracking spreads showed a clear differentiation of "strong diesel and weak gasoline". The diesel spread may remain high in the short - term, while the gasoline spread is difficult to improve [55] 4.4 Scenario Deduction - Base scenario (probability 60%): The fourth - quarter crude oil market will show a pattern of "basic supply - demand balance, macro - level support but lack of demand highlights". Brent crude oil will oscillate between $60 - 70 per barrel [73][74] - Downward scenario (probability 25%): Triggered by excessive supply growth and weakening demand buffer, Brent crude oil may fall to $58 - 60 per barrel [75] - Upward scenario (probability 15%): Triggered by the resonance of sudden geopolitical events and macro - economic recovery, Brent crude oil may break through $75 per barrel [76] 4.5 Core Conclusions and Tracking Suggestions - The essence of the fourth - quarter crude oil market is the dynamic balance between the actual supply increase and off - balance - sheet demand buffer. Brent crude oil will oscillate between $60 - 70 per barrel without sudden geopolitical supply disruptions or excessive inventory accumulation [78] - Attention should be paid to the risks of economic recession, OPEC+ over - production, and shale oil incremental increase, which may lead to a downward break of the oil price [78]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, and copper prices are consolidating at a high level. Supply - side disturbances have increased, and the center of copper prices has shifted upward. The copper smelting industry's "anti - involution" is expected to unfold, with bullish sentiment fermenting. Although downstream demand for high prices is insufficient and demand is marginally weakening, it will not collapse. The Grasberg accident has strengthened the bullish trend, and prices are expected to continue to be strong [3][4][6] - The global copper market is facing a situation where supply is difficult to ease and demand is showing a differentiated trend. The growth rate of supply and demand has declined compared to last year. It is expected that the global copper market will have a certain amount of surplus in 2025 [123][131] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Copper Market Overview (1) Market Review - In September, copper prices broke through the pressure level of $10,160/ton. On September 8, the lowest price of Shanghai copper reached 79,400 yuan/ton, or LME copper at $9,860/ton. On September 26, it reached a maximum of 83,090 yuan/ton, or LME copper at $10,485/ton. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but there were differences among policymakers regarding further rate cuts, and the dovish stance was less than expected. The Grasberg accident led to a 35% decline in the 2026 output forecast, intensifying the tightness of copper mines. The downstream demand for high - priced copper was insufficient, and the destocking speed was slow [11] (2) Market Outlook - In terms of supply, it is expected that the global copper concentrate increment in 2025 will be adjusted down to 200,000 metal tons, with a year - on - year growth of 0.87%. The growth rate of refined copper production is expected to be 3.53%, lower than 4.3% in 2024. In terms of demand, the global consumption growth rate is expected to drop to 3.4%, with China's consumption growth rate falling from 4.5% to 3.8% and overseas demand growth rate rising from 1.8% to 2.7%. In terms of price, the long - term preventive interest rate cuts in the US are expected to drive up inflation, and copper prices are expected to mainly operate in the range of 81,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [12] (3) Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Purchase on dips. Arbitrage: Hold long - short positions across markets. Options: Wait and see [7] 2. Increasing Disturbances in Copper Mines, Difficult to Ease the Tight Supply Situation (1) Sharp Decline in the Increment of Copper Concentrate Supply - It is expected that the global copper concentrate increment in 2025 will be about 200,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth of 0.87%, lower than the increment of 665,500 tons in 2024. Many major mining companies have reduced their production plans, such as Freeport, Ivanhoe, Teck, etc., with a total reduction of 239,000 tons. However, the output of Kazakhmys is expected to increase from 520,000 tons to 600,000 tons [28][29] (2) Mismatch in Global Scrap Copper Supply, Tight Domestic Scrap Copper Supply - In August 2025, China's scrap copper imports reached 179,400 physical tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.93%. The cumulative import from January to August was 1.5148 million physical tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.12%. The import from the US has decreased, but it is imported through countries like Japan and Thailand. The EU is facing a reduction in scrap supply, and it is expected that the import of scrap copper from EU countries will decrease in the future [41] (3) Accelerated Transmission of Insufficient Raw Material Supply to the Smelting End - It is expected that the global refined copper production will increase by 950,000 tons in 2025, with a year - on - year growth of 3.53%. Overseas smelters are facing losses and increasing production cuts, such as Pasar, Altonorte, etc. In China, in August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The domestic raw material supply is supplemented by the inflow of overseas long - term contracts and increased scrap copper procurement [48][50] 3. Consumption Analysis (1) Domestic Demand Differentiation - **Real Estate Market**: From January to August, the national new commercial housing sales area decreased by 4.7% year - on - year. The real estate market is in the off - season, and the decline in construction completion will continue to drag down copper consumption [60] - **Power Grid and Power Supply Projects**: From January to July, the cumulative investment in the power grid was 331.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.5%. The investment in power supply projects increased by 3.4%. In August, the operating rate of wire and cable improved month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The export of wire and cable maintained growth, but the export to the US decreased due to tariff increases [68][70] - **Household Air - Conditioners**: From January to August, the cumulative sales of household air - conditioners were 152.57 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.91%. In August, the total sales were 13.023 million units, a slight year - on - year decline. The consumption growth rate of air - conditioners is expected to drop to 5%, and the copper consumption will increase from 1.57 million tons to 1.65 million tons [78][79] - **Automobiles**: In August, automobile production and sales increased month - on - month and year - on - year. However, due to the structural differentiation of the automobile market and the impact of subsidy policies, the growth rate of automobile consumption is expected to gradually slow down [87] (2) The Marginal Weakening of the Driving Force of New Energy on Global Consumption - **New Energy Vehicles**: From January to July 2025, the global new energy vehicle sales increased by 24.57% year - on - year. China led the market, with production and sales from January to August increasing by 37.3% and 36.7% respectively. The global new energy vehicle copper consumption is expected to increase from 1.2208 million tons in 2024 to 1.3524 million tons in 2025 [93][94] - **Wind and Solar Power Generation**: From January to July 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 80.73% year - on - year, and the new wind power installed capacity increased by 79.44% year - on - year. The global new wind power installed capacity is expected to increase to 138GW in 2025. The contribution of wind and solar power to global consumption growth is declining [105][117] (3) Consumption Summary - It is expected that the global consumption growth rate will drop to 3.4%, lower than 3.76% last year. China's consumption growth rate will drop from 4.5% to 3.8%. Overseas demand remains stable, while domestic demand is marginally weakening in the second half of the year [123] 4. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, the supply gap of copper concentrate is expected to widen to 943,000 tons, and the refined copper surplus is expected to be 377,000 tons, concentrated in the US. In China, the consumption growth rate is expected to decline significantly from October to December [131]

Macroeconomic and Policy Environment - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing employment and inflation due to the contradiction between economic resilience and a gradual decline in employment, leading to ambiguity in future interest rate cuts [2][3] - The Eurozone shows signs of improvement in economic indicators following multiple interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, with low policy rates and stable inflation supporting domestic demand [3] Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic demand has weakened in the second half of the year, influenced by diminishing policy effects, extreme weather, and high base effects, while external demand has exceeded expectations [3] - Infrastructure investment is expected to provide more certainty for domestic demand in Q4, with policies aimed at promoting consumption, stabilizing real estate, and expanding investment requiring time for validation [3][4] Domestic Policy Environment - The central bank has expressed a commitment to implementing detailed monetary policy, with current macro and micro liquidity remaining relatively ample [4] - Fiscal policy is under pressure due to the pre-issuance of government bonds, but there are indications of available fiscal resources for smooth transitions into the next year [4] Industry Developments - The National Organization for Drug Procurement has released the 11th batch of centralized procurement documents, indicating a shift towards using anchor prices rather than simply selecting the lowest bid, reflecting a trend against excessive competition in the pharmaceutical industry [8][9] - Recent approvals and clinical trials in the pharmaceutical sector include the launch of a subcutaneous formulation of Pembrolizumab and the initiation of Phase III trials for a new drug by Zai Lab [8][9] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.83%, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector saw a decline of 1.68% during the week of September 19-25, 2025 [9] - The price-to-earnings ratio for the pharmaceutical and biological industry was reported at 31.13 times, with a valuation premium of 146% relative to the CSI 300 index [9] Investment Strategy - The upcoming IPOs in the pharmaceutical sector, including the successful listing of Jinfang Pharmaceutical, indicate an opening window for new listings [9] - Investment strategies should focus on opportunities arising from interest rate cuts, innovation in drug development, and the benefits of optimized procurement rules in the pharmaceutical and medical device sectors [9]

2025 年 09 月 28 日 罄， 推荐关注化工 ETF》2025-09-22 投资要点 ▌本周建议一览 核心观点： 大类资产继续演绎"高风偏但高脆弱，增加保护"的配置 逻辑，本周公布的美国经济数据较好，印证了"预防式降 息"性质。GDP 终值和当周初请失业人数均大超预期，数 据公布后市场交易降息预期略有回摆，美元指数走强，美 股、港 A 科技股均承压。 高风偏但高脆弱，"慢牛"中仍需耐心 分析师：吕思江 S1050522030001 lvsj@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：马晨 S1050522050001 machen@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 1、《基本面、资金面、情绪面三维 共振，积极看多港股市场》2025- 09-23 2、《降息一周后对大类资产怎么 看？》2025-09-22 3、《第二批科创债 ETF 首日即售 我们仍然强调本轮是非典型的"预防式降息"：硬数据不 差，流动性不太可能立刻大幅度宽松；经济景气度不低， 意味着股债性价比仍然偏向权益。自四月初以来，风险资 产仓位在本周第一次出现存量流出，值得注意。总之是一 个"高风偏但是高脆弱，增加保护"的格局。 国内资产的增量流动性在十 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets continue to exhibit "volatile differentiation + internal rotation of technology style," with capital preference focusing on power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors [1][4] Economic Environment - The U.S. August core PCE data did not show significant inflationary pressure, increasing market bets on two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1][18] - The "Great American Rescue Plan" is expected to gradually take effect in the second half of the year, alongside fiscal and monetary expansion in Europe, which may boost global demand recovery [1][11] Industry Performance - The technology-related overseas sectors are performing strongly due to ongoing capital expenditure expansion related to AI, while traditional manufacturing and consumption sectors are relatively weak due to high interest rates suppressing demand [2][8] - The A-share and Hong Kong markets are seeing a rotation in capital towards sectors with clear improvement in profitability, such as power equipment and non-ferrous metals [4][6] Investment Opportunities - The AI sector remains a mid-term industry prosperity mainline, with potential for short-term trading adjustments as valuations digest [3][18] - Key areas to watch include battery, engineering machinery, and the anti-involution price increase chain (express delivery, breeding, fiberglass) [3][18] - The overseas capital goods chain is worth early-stage exploration, particularly in non-ferrous metals, engineering machinery, and petrochemicals [3][18] Market Trends - Historical analysis shows that after the Fed resumes rate cuts, improvements in the U.S. job market often lag, while PMI and CPI rebound more quickly [14][18] - The current high interest rate environment is expected to gradually improve housing mortgage rates and corporate financing rates, potentially leading to a recovery in the real estate sector and traditional industry investment willingness [11][18]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Impact - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut is expected to benefit Chinese companies' profitability through three main channels: increased U.S. market demand, reduced domestic financing costs, and lower overseas debt costs for Chinese enterprises, particularly in high-leverage sectors like real estate and infrastructure [1] - The Fed's "preventive rate cuts" historically lead to economic stabilization and improved stock market performance, suggesting a potential for renewed global demand expansion [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Sentiment - China's August economic data shows a downward trend influenced by "anti-involution" factors, but there are positive signs such as a rebound in PPI and strong performance in high-value exports [4] - The shift in China's economic model from strong supply-driven growth to a combination of supply clearing and recovering overseas demand indicates a potential recovery in corporate profitability [4] Group 3: Sector-Specific Opportunities - In the construction materials sector, the rate cut is expected to favor overseas expansion, particularly in regions like Africa and Southeast Asia, where Chinese industries can leverage their advantages [6][7] - The engineering machinery sector is anticipated to see a resurgence in global demand, especially in North America and Europe, driven by infrastructure policies and a recovery in construction activities [8][9] - The pharmaceutical sector stands to gain from lower financing costs, encouraging increased R&D investment and new drug development, which could lead to more orders for contract research organizations [10] - The petrochemical sector may benefit from macroeconomic rate cuts that could stabilize prices, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply [11] - The metals sector is likely to experience price increases for industrial metals due to expectations of continued rate cuts, with specific optimism for aluminum and copper markets [12]

Market Overview - On September 26, the stock indices of both markets experienced fluctuations and declined, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 2%, and more than 3,400 stocks in the market showing losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.65% at 3,828.11 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.76% to 13,209 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.6% to 3,151.53 points, while the Northbound 50 Index dropped nearly 2% [1] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges combined reached 21,664 billion [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as tourism, media, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors saw declines, while sectors like chemical fiber, insurance, electricity, and oil experienced gains [1] - Military trade and wind power concepts were notably active in the market [1] Future Market Outlook - According to China Merchants Securities, there is a historical pattern of "pre-holiday contraction and post-holiday explosion" in financing before and after the National Day holiday [1] - The market typically shows a relatively calm trend before the holiday, but risk appetite improves significantly afterward [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, historical data suggests a higher probability of A/H shares rising in the future [1] - The current market is still in the second phase of a bull market, with three main driving factors for the recent rise in A-shares remaining unchanged, indicating potential for continued growth along low penetration rate tracks until a significant policy shift occurs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% marks the beginning of a global easing cycle in 2025, which has significant implications for various asset classes [1]. Impact on U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market experienced a "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect, with all three major indices closing lower after an initial spike [3][4]. - The S&P 500 index had already risen by 2% in the ten trading days leading up to the meeting, indicating that the market had priced in the rate cut [4]. - The Fed's rate cut is seen as a "risk management adjustment" aimed at addressing a weak labor market and potential economic downturn, historically leading to an upward shift in equity valuations [4]. Impact on Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market showed a "rise then fall" pattern post-rate cut, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.13% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 2.42% [5]. - Despite the decline, there was a net inflow of over 5 billion HKD from southbound funds, indicating demand for undervalued assets [5]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority also lowered rates to 4.5%, easing liquidity pressure and historically correlating with increased foreign capital inflow during Fed easing cycles [5]. Impact on Gold Market - Gold prices exhibited volatility, initially spiking to 3,744 USD/oz before retreating to around 3,670 USD/oz, with domestic gold prices adjusting to approximately 460 CNY/g [5]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive as the Fed's easing cycle typically leads to a downtrend in real interest rates, enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge [7][8]. - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices may be influenced by a rebound in the dollar index and geopolitical stability [8]. Summary of Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the market is cautiously optimistic, with a focus on the potential for recovery in tech and consumer sectors in the U.S. and Hong Kong, while gold remains a strategic asset amid weakening dollar credibility [8].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market is experiencing a range-bound fluctuation in Q3 2025, with prices significantly higher than in Q2. Precious metals, particularly gold, have performed exceptionally well, reaching historical highs, while basic metals like copper remain strong. The energy sector, however, is underperforming due to oversupply [1] - Looking ahead to Q4, the absence of recession signs in the US economy and the Federal Reserve's risk management-style interest rate cuts are expected to positively impact commodity price rebounds. Expansionary fiscal policies in the US and Europe are likely to boost overall demand [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - On September 18, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%. This move is characterized as a risk management-style cut, essentially a preventive measure against potential economic downturns [2] - Despite some signs of economic weakening, the US economy has not entered a recession, with retail sales data showing a 0.6% month-on-month increase in August, marking three consecutive months of growth [2] - The Fed's recent statements indicate a more pessimistic view on the labor market, acknowledging a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while also raising inflation expectations for 2026 [2][5] Group 3: Historical Context of Interest Rate Cuts - Since 1982, the Federal Reserve has undergone seven major interest rate cut cycles, categorized into preventive and recessionary cuts. Typically, preventive cuts benefit precious metals and US equities, while recessionary cuts tend to negatively impact equities but favor gold prices [3] - The price movements of copper and crude oil are significantly influenced by the state of the real economy and demand for these commodities [3] Group 4: Domestic Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data from China indicates a dual weakness in supply and demand, with industrial value-added growth slowing to 5.2% year-on-year in August. Exports also saw a decline, with a -0.4% year-on-year change, marking the first negative growth of the year [7] - Despite the slowdown in traditional industries, high-tech sectors continue to show resilience, with a 9.3% year-on-year growth in high-tech industrial value-added [7] Group 5: Policy Measures and Market Outlook - The frequency of new policy measures in China is increasing, focusing on market reforms, expanding service consumption, and local government debt management. These measures are expected to support growth in Q4 [8] - A potential global shift towards a new phase of monetary easing and fiscal stimulus could benefit commodity prices, although oil and agricultural products may underperform due to supply expansions and tariff impacts [8]