Core Viewpoint - Manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, but corporate expectations have dropped to a low level; increased policy support is needed to monitor changes in micro expectations [3][6][100] Manufacturing Sector - June manufacturing PMI improved to 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May, exceeding market expectations of 49.3% [2][10] - The production and new orders indices both rose, reaching 51% and 50.2% respectively, indicating expansion [3][10] - The new orders index showed slight improvement, with domestic demand orders recovering more than new export orders [22][98] - High-frequency indicators reveal a year-on-year decline in foreign trade cargo volume, indicating reduced export strength [22][98] Industry Analysis - High-energy-consuming industries saw a significant PMI increase, rising 0.8 percentage points to 47.8%, driven by investment and ongoing infrastructure projects [4][28] - Equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors also benefited from domestic demand, with PMIs rising to 51.4% and 50.4% respectively [4][28] - Food and beverage, as well as specialized equipment sectors, have maintained production and new order indices in the expansion zone for two consecutive months [4][28] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction sector's PMI rose significantly by 1.8 percentage points to 52.8%, indicating rapid progress in infrastructure projects [31][99] - The civil engineering PMI reached 56.7%, remaining in a high prosperity range for three consecutive months [31][99] - In contrast, the real estate sector's construction progress appears slower, with weak performance in cement and rebar consumption [31][99] Service Sector - The service sector PMI slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%, primarily due to the fading effects of holiday consumption [5][42] - Business activity indices in retail, transportation, and hospitality sectors showed varying degrees of decline, reflecting reduced market activity [5][42] - Conversely, sectors such as telecommunications and financial services maintained high business activity indices above 60% [5][42] Future Outlook - There are risks of weakening manufacturing sentiment, necessitating close attention to the impact of incremental policies on domestic demand and changes in corporate expectations [6][100] - Despite the recovery in production and new orders, the corporate expectation index has fallen to its lowest level in 2023 at 52% [6][100] - Recent policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, including a 500 billion yuan service consumption relending initiative, may support corporate and consumer expectations [6][100]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that due to geopolitical conflicts, the shipping market has high trading difficulty. With no significant positive news, the market is prone to decline and difficult to rise. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to negotiation results, tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On June 23, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1937.14 points, up 14.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 2083.46 points, down 28.4% from the previous period [3]. - On June 20, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1382.05 points, down 10.07% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1299.58 points, down 0.64% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1586.05 points, down 28.91% from the previous period [3]. - On June 20, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1869.59 points, down 218.65 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1835 USD/TEU, down 0.49% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2772 USD/FEU, down 32.86% from the previous period [3]. - On June 20, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1342.46 points, up 8.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1578.60 points, up 6.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1256.91 points, up 14.8% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Market Situation and Strategy - The online quotes have reached a bottleneck, and the market is volatile. If there are short positions, they can be held. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [2]. - Some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases, and attention should be paid to the implementation of price - support measures. In the absence of more positive news, the market is prone to decline [5]. - On June 26, the main contract 2508 closed at 1759.9, up 1.24%, with a trading volume of 38,500 lots and an open interest of 41,500 lots, a decrease of 2043 lots from the previous day [5]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: In the absence of an obvious fundamental turnaround, it is recommended to try short positions on rallies. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000. Hold short positions and stop - loss long positions, and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [6]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rallies, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. 3.4 Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16% [6]. - The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26% [6]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [6]. 3.5 Geopolitical Events - Since June 13, there have been conflicts between Israel and Iran. The cease - fire agreement between the two countries officially took effect after noon on the 24th. The repeated situation has affected international oil prices and the shipping market. The container transportation price from China to the Middle East has risen, with a single - container increase of about 50% [7].

经济学家普遍预期，美国通胀率将从6月起飙升。报道说，关税政策不断变化带来的不确定性，加剧了 通胀上升、经济增长乏力或出现滞胀的风险。荷兰国际集团首席国际经济学家奈特利表示："关税引发 的价格上涨已经挤压了家庭的消费能力，汽油价格上涨将加剧消费者的负担，有可能导致经济更加明显 的放缓。" 在政策层面，通胀预期上升已导致美联储暂停降息周期。美联储上个星期将基准隔夜利率维持在 4.25%-4.50%的区间不变，自2024年12月以来美联储一直维持该利率水平。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，预 计未来通胀将会很"明显"。（海外网 侯兴川） 转自：海外网 来源:海外网 海外网6月24日电据路透社23日报道，受白宫对进口商品征收大幅关税的影响，美国6月份商业活动略有 放缓，成本及商品价格进一步上涨，表明下半年通胀可能会加速。 标普全球23日发布数据显示，追踪制造业和服务业的美国综合PMI产出指数从5月份的53.0下滑至6月份 的52.8，显示美国私营部门经济产出的增速已出现放缓迹象。标普全球表示："美国企业总体上仍不如 本届政府上台前乐观"。服务业PMI预览值则从5月份的53.7降至53.1，企业新订单指数也从5月份的53.0 下 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily shipping container transportation report released on June 24, 2025, focusing on market trends and related factors in the shipping industry [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Crude oil prices dropped by 7%, and the market opened high and closed low. The game in the near - term is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1] - On June 23, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1937.14 points, up 14.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 2083.46 points, down 28.4% from the previous period [1] - On June 20, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1869.59 points, down 218.65 points from the previous period. The SCFI for the European route was 1835 USD/TEU, down 0.49% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2772 USD/FEU, down 32.86% from the previous period [1] - The Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the service PMI was 48.9, and the composite PMI was 49.5. The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [1] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [1] - The US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, the service PMI was 52.3, and the composite PMI was 52.1 [1] Group 3: Market Analysis and Strategies - The European route has strong macro - attributes, and the game is difficult. Some shipping companies have announced price increases, and attention should be paid to the implementation of price support. The Sino - US second - round talks have no substantial progress, and the spot market price range is set. The market is prone to fall and difficult to rise [2] - Short - term strategy: In the absence of an obvious fundamental shift, it is recommended to try short positions on rallies. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000, and stop losses have been recommended for long positions [2] - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for each contract, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for the callback to stabilize [2] Group 4: Geopolitical and Other Factors - The Middle East situation continues to deteriorate. Iran plans to close the Strait of Hormuz. The US - West route freight rate has dropped rapidly, and short - selling sentiment has risen [2] - On June 23, Iran launched the 21st round of the "True Promise - 3" operation against Israel, targeting military targets and military support centers in the north - south direction of the Jordan River West Bank centered on Haifa and Tel Aviv [3] - Goldman Sachs is worried about the possible supply interruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil has risen 20.6% this month to $76.9 per barrel. If the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is reduced by half in the first month and remains 10% lower in the next 11 months, the Brent crude oil price may briefly reach a peak of $110 per barrel [3]

2025年6月19日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 以伊冲突持续，部分班轮公司宣涨7月初运价，提振多头情绪，近期波动较大，建议轻仓参与或观望。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1697.63点，较上期上涨4.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1536.84点，较上期下跌7.94% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）2908.68点，较上期上涨33.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1307.92点，较上期上涨16.4% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）2230.99点，较上期下跌31.55% | | 6月13日 | 6月13日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格2088.24点，较上期下跌152.11点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1844USD/TEU, 较上期上涨10.62% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1243.05点，较上期上涨7.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCF ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the SCFIS index has a small increase, the 06 contract has a large premium, spot freight rates fluctuate slightly, and the market is oscillating. Given that the European line has strong macro - attributes and the recent game is difficult, and there is no substantial progress in the Sino - US talks, the market is prone to fall and difficult to rise without more positive news. Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final result of the ruling [1][2]. 3. Content Summary by Aspects Freight Rate Index - On June 16, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1697.63 points, up 4.6% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 2908.68 points, up 33.1% from the previous period [1]. - On June 13, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1307.92 points, up 16.4% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 2230.99 points, down 31.55% from the previous period [1]. - On June 13, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2088.24 points, down 152.11 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European line was 1844 USD/TEU, up 10.62% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 4120 USD/FEU, down 26.51% from the previous period [1]. - On June 13, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1243.05 points, up 7.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1488.87 points, up 6.6% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1094.58 points, up 5.8% from the previous period [1]. Macroeconomic Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49), services PMI flash was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1), and composite PMI flash was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [1]. - China's May Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [1]. - US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3 (a three - month high, expected 49.9, previous 50.2), services PMI flash was 52.3 (a two - month high, expected 51, previous 50.8), and composite PMI flash was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [1]. Market Situation and Strategy - Crude oil dropped significantly last night. The European line has strong macro - attributes, and the recent game is difficult. Without more positive news, the market is prone to fall and difficult to rise. Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final result of the ruling [2]. - On June 16, the main contract 2508 closed at 2030.0, down 4.04%, with a trading volume of 65,900 lots and an open interest of 43,700 lots, a decrease of 1186 lots from the previous day [2]. - Short - term strategy: The 2506 contract is mainly based on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2250, and try long positions for the 2510 contract below 1450, with stop - losses set [2]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to the near - strong and far - weak freight rate. Attention should be paid to the result of the court ruling, and the market is volatile. For now, it is mainly in a positive spread structure [2]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for the market to stabilize after a pullback [2]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%, the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [2]. Geopolitical Situation - The Middle East situation continues to escalate. Israel and Iran have launched multiple rounds of attacks on each other. Iraq supports Iran and is committed to preventing the expansion of the conflict [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 9th to 10th, the China - US economic and trade teams held the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London. They reached a principle agreement on measures to implement the important consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state on June 5th and consolidate the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns. It is expected that China - US economic and trade relations will further improve. In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, and it is expected that the PMI in June may further rebound. [36] - This week, Shanghai nickel showed a volatile downward trend. The spot trading of refined nickel has improved, but it is still in a supply - surplus pattern. The market at the mine end has changed little, and the shipment from the Philippines is slow due to rainy weather. The price of nickel sulfate is weak, and salt factories are currently operating at a loss with no obvious improvement in downstream demand. The stainless - steel spot and futures markets are weak, with purchases mainly for immediate needs and steel mills being cautious in raw - material procurement. Although demand has resilience, whether it will improve in the medium - to - long term remains to be verified by further data. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is approximately 12,300 to 13,000 yuan/ton. [36] Group 3: Summary by Report Catalog 1. Market Review - The report presents the historical price trend of nickel futures closing prices (main contract) from December 31, 2020, to April 30, 2025, in the form of a graph [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - The report shows the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines to China in the form of a graph [13]. 2.2 Midstream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - The report presents the historical price trend of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from a certain period in the form of a graph [16]. 2.3 Midstream - Nickel Sulfate Price - The report shows the average price trend of nickel sulfate in China in the form of a graph [18]. 2.4 Midstream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - The report presents the monthly import volume of ferronickel into China and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel in the form of a graph [20]. 2.5 Downstream - Stainless - Steel Price - The report shows the historical closing price trend of stainless - steel futures (continuous) in the form of a graph [22]. 2.6 Downstream - Stainless - Steel Futures Position - The report presents the historical position volume trend of stainless - steel futures in the form of a graph [24]. 2.7 Downstream - Wuxi Stainless - Steel Inventory - The report shows the inventory trend of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel in the form of a graph [26]. 2.8 Downstream - Power and Energy - Storage Battery Production - The report presents the monthly production volume of power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and the total monthly production volume of power and energy - storage batteries in China in the form of a graph [29]. 2.9 Downstream - New - Energy Vehicle Production - The report shows the monthly production volume of new - energy vehicles in China in the form of a graph [31]. 3. Future Outlook - The report analyzes the impact of China - US economic and trade consultations and China's May PMI data on the market. It also analyzes the current situation of the nickel and stainless - steel industries and gives the expected operating ranges of the Shanghai nickel main contract and the stainless - steel main contract [36].

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年6月3日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 股指低开高走，期指基差再度回落 市场回顾 今日股指低开高走，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨0.31%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回升22.31亿元。 期指均放量上涨。 重要资讯 1. 国家统计局公布数据显示，5月份，我国制造业PMI为49.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点。非制造业PMI 为50.3%，比上月下降0.1个百分点。综合PMI为50.4%，比上月上升0.2个百分点。新出口订单指数和进 口指数分别为47.5%和47.1%，比上月上升2.8和3.7个百分点。调查中部分涉美企业反映外贸订单加速重 启，进出口情况有所改善。 2. 美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场集会上表示，将把进口钢铁的关税从25%提高至50%，该决 定从6月4日（周三）起生效。对此，欧盟委员会发布声明称，目前正在就扩大反制措施进行最终磋商。如 果未能达成双方均可接受的解决方案，欧盟现有措施和附加措施将于7月14日自动生效，或根据需要提前 生效。 3. 美国贸易代表办公室宣布，延长对中 ...

较小影响有限。近期供需两弱，下游按需采购，国内库存下降；但海外库存持稳。技术面，缩量减仓回升 ，关注MA10压力，预计震荡偏弱调整。操作上，建议暂时观望，或轻仓做空。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-06-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 121250 | 150 07-08月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -220 | 30 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15510 | 205 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 91891 | -2963 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | 1027 | 2203 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 201462 | 1152 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 27075 | 120 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) ...

铝类产业日报 2025/6/3 免责声明 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19,860.00 | -210.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,998.00 | +36.00↑ | | | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 70.00 | -25.00↓ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 64.00 | ...