Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The bullish sentiment has rebounded again, with the market showing a strong and volatile trend, which is in line with the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take full profits. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core now lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs SCFIS and NCFI Freight Rate Indexes - On December 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1094.77 points, up 3.20% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period. The NCFI (European route) was 1067.29 points, up 0.30% from the previous period. The SCFIS (US West route) was 924.36 points, down 3.8% from the previous period. The NCFI (US West route) was 1228.34 points, up 19.28% from the previous period [1] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1552.92 points on December 19, up 46.46 points from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1533 USD/TEU, down 0.33% from the previous period. The CCFI (European route) was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period. The SCFI US West route was 1992 USD/FEU, up 11.91% from the previous period. The CCFI (US West route) was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [1] PMI Data - In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with the business climate improving. In October, the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [2] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's November composite PMI was 52.4, slightly lower than the October data of 52.5 but still above the boom - bust line of 50, basically in line with expectations. The preliminary value of the services PMI was 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and better than the expected value of 52.8, recording the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The Eurozone's December Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [1] - The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global Services PMI was 55, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.8. The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global Composite PMI was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.6 [2] Market and Contract Information - On December 19, the main contract 2602 closed at 1719.8, with a decline of 3.66%, a trading volume of 31,600 lots, and an open interest of 31,500 lots, a decrease of 136 lots from the previous day [2] - The market's long - short game is fierce, with no obvious trading direction. The bearish sentiment has subsided, and the bullish sentiment has rebounded again, with the market showing a strong and volatile trend [1][2] Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: The main contract has rebounded after a pullback, and the volatility of far - month contracts has slowed down. Risk - takers have been recommended to go long on the main contract with a light position and have been advised to take full profits. It is not recommended to add more positions or hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [3] - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high point, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Other Information - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [3] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [3] - The intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3] - On December 19, Turkish, US, Qatari, and Egyptian officials held a meeting in Miami to discuss the implementation of the first - phase of the Gaza cease - fire agreement and the arrangements for the transition to the second phase. Although there have been multiple violations, the cease - fire has generally continued, the release of detainees has been completed, and ground conflicts have significantly decreased [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bullish sentiment has rebounded again, and the market is oscillating strongly, which is in line with the daily report's expectation, and all positions have been advised to take profit. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, so it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [1][2]. - The market is in a fierce long - short game with no obvious trading direction. The bearish sentiment has subsided, and the bullish sentiment has rebounded again. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog SCFIS and NCFI Freight Indexes - On December 19th, compared with the previous period: the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1094.77 points, up 3.20%; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1510.56 points, up 0.1%; the NCFI (European route) was 1067.29 points, up 0.30%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 924.36 points, down 3.8%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1228.34 points, up 19.28% [1]. - Also on December 19th, compared with the previous period: the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1552.92 points, up 46.46 points; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 1533 USD/TEU, down 0.33%; the CCFI (European route) was 1473.90 points, up 0.2%; the SCFI US West route was 1992 USD/FEU, up 11.91%; the CCFI (US West route) was 792.06 points, down 0.9% [1]. PMI Data - In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the business climate improved. In October, the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [2]. - The eurozone's November composite PMI flash was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The services PMI flash was 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and better than the expected value of 52.8, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The eurozone's December Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [1]. - The US November S&P Global Services PMI flash was 55, expected to be 54.6, with a previous value of 54.8. The US November S&P Global Composite PMI flash was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, expected to be 54.6, with a previous value of 54.6 [2]. Market Conditions of the Main Contract - On December 19th, the main contract 2602 closed at 1719.8, with a decline of 3.66%, a trading volume of 31,600 lots, and an open interest of 31,500 lots, a decrease of 136 lots from the previous day [2]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract has rebounded after a pull - back, and the volatility of far - month contracts has slowed down. Risk - takers have been advised to go long on the main contract lightly, and all positions have been advised to take profit. It is not recommended to add more positions or hold losing positions, and stop - losses should be set [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try lightly [3]. - Long - term strategy: Each contract has been advised to take profit when it reaches a high, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [3]. - Circuit - breaker limits: The circuit - breaker limits for contracts 2508 - 2606 have been adjusted to 18%. - Margin requirements: The company's margin requirements for contracts 2508 - 2606 have been adjusted to 28%. - Intraday opening limits: The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3]. Geopolitical News - On December 19th, officials from Turkey, the US, Qatar, and Egypt held a meeting in Miami, USA, to discuss the implementation of the first phase of the Gaza cease - fire agreement and the arrangements for the transition to the second phase. The cease - fire has generally continued, the release of detainees has been completed, and ground conflicts have significantly decreased [4].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract first rose and then fell, in line with the daily report's expectation, and all positions were advised to be closed for profit [1] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On December 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 924.36 points, down 3.8% from the previous period [2] - On December 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1060.86 points, up 10.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1064.13 points, up 9.98% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1029.8 points, up 17.28% from the previous period [2] - On December 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1506.461 points, up 108.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1538 USD/TEU, up 9.86% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1780 USD/FEU, up 14.84% from the previous period [2] - On December 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1118.07 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1470.55 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 798.95 points, down 2.3% from the previous period [2] 3.2 Economic Indicators - The euro - zone's November composite PMI flash was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service sector PMI flash was 53.1, higher than the previous value and the expected value [2] - The euro - zone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [2] - In November, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [3] - The US November S&P Global services PMI flash was 55, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.8. The US November S&P Global composite PMI flash was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month [3] 3.3 Market Conditions - On December 17, the main contract 2602 closed at 1699.8, down 0.68%, with a trading volume of 24,200 lots and an open interest of 32,000 lots, a decrease of 512 lots from the previous day [3] - There is a long - short game in the market, and the bullish sentiment has declined. The main contract first rose and then fell [3] 3.4 Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounded after a pull - back, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slowed down. Risk - takers were advised to go long on the main contract with a light position, all positions were advised to be closed for profit, no additional positions or holding losses were recommended, and stop - losses should be set [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: All contracts were advised to close for profit when the price rose, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] 3.5 Contract Regulations - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4] 3.6 Geopolitical Event - On December 14, the Qassam Brigades of Hamas confirmed that its military manufacturing department head, Rad Said Saad, was killed in an Israeli attack, which violated the cease - fire agreement [5]

欧元区经济在2025年收官之际增长势头放缓，12月综合PMI指数降至为三个月来最低水平，主要受制造业重新陷入收缩和服务业增长放缓拖累。 德国制造业则录得10个月来最差表现，法国制造业表现创三年多新高，但服务业意外走软拖累整体活动。 12月16日最新公布的数据显示，欧元区12月商业活动增长放缓，综合PMI从11月的52.8降至51.9，创三个月新低。数据显示，欧元区制造业普遍疲 软，而服务业增长势头也在减弱。通胀压力上升，投入成本涨幅达到九个月高点，可能影响欧洲央行本周四（12月18日）货币政策决议。 德国私营部门进一步失去动力，综合PMI降至51.5，为四个月最低水平。制造业产出重返收缩区间，PMI跌至47.7的十个月低点，新订单停滞不 前。法国私营部门经济在12月基本停滞，综合PMI降至50.1，为两个月低点。尽管制造业PMI从47.8大幅升至50.6，为四十个月高位，但是服务业 PMI大幅降至50.2，拖累整体经济活动。 德国制造业深陷困境 德国私营部门12月再度失去增长动力，综合PMI从11月的52.4降至51.5。制造业成为拖累因素，产出指数跌至49.4，结束了连续九个月的增长态 势。制造业PMI降至 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot cargo volume is warm, the market is fluctuating strongly, in line with the daily report's expectations. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival shipping market, and freight rates show no obvious fluctuations. The core issue of freight rate trends lies in traditional seasonality and the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea. The impact of the tariff issue has become marginal [1][2]. - The eurozone's November comprehensive PMI remains above the boom - bust line, with a slight decline compared to October. The US November service and comprehensive PMI show positive trends. China's November manufacturing PMI improves, while the October comprehensive PMI output index drops below the boom - bust line [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On December 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1509.10 points, up 1.7% from the previous period, and for the US West route was 960.51 points, up 1.2%. On December 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1060.86 points, up 10.23%, for the European route was 1064.13 points, up 9.98%, and for the US West route was 1029.8 points, up 17.28% [1]. - **SCFI, CCFI**: On December 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) comprehensive index was 1506.461 points, up 108.83 points; the European line price was 1538 USD/TEU, up 9.86%; the US West route was 1780 USD/FEU, up 14.84%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) comprehensive index was 1118.07 points, up 0.3%; the European route was 1470.55 points, up 1.6%; the US West route was 798.95 points, down 2.3% [1]. Economic Data - **Eurozone**: The eurozone's November comprehensive PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5. The service PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous and expected values. The December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 [1]. - **China**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the comprehensive PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [2]. - **US**: The US November S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55, higher than the expected 54.6 and the previous 54.8. The comprehensive PMI preliminary value was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month [2]. Market Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract rebounds after a pullback, and the far - month contract's fluctuation slows down. Risk - takers are advised to take a small - position long in the main contract, then take all profits, not add more positions, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [2]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - position attempt [2]. - **Long - term Strategy**: Each contract is advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent trend [2]. Contract Information - On December 12, the main contract 2602 closed at 1677.8, up 0.32%, with a trading volume of 27,000 lots and an open interest of 31,700 lots, an increase of 41 lots from the previous day [2]. - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%, and the margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [2].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - The core issue lies in the direction of spot freight rates, with the tariff issue showing a marginal effect. The main contract has seen a seasonal rebound, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2]. - The short - term strategy for freight rate trends is that the logic returns to traditional seasonality and the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased. For risk - takers, it is advised to close all positions in the main contract, not to add more positions or hold losing positions, and to set stop - losses [2]. - In the context of international turmoil, the contracts follow seasonal logic with large fluctuations. For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. For the long - term strategy, it is advised to take profits when the contracts reach a high point, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then make further judgments [2]. Summary by Relevant Content Freight Rate Index - On December 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1509.10 points, up 1.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 960.51 points, up 1.2% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period [1]. - On December 5, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price was 1397.63 points, down 5.5 points from the previous period; the European line price was 1400 USD/TEU, down 0.28% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period [1]. - On December 8, the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period. The SCFI for the US - West route was 1550 USD/FEU, down 5.02% from the previous period. The CCFI for the US - West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [1]. Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in business production and operation activities [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [2]. - The preliminary value of the eurozone's composite PMI in November was 52.4, slightly lower than the October figure of 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and better than the expected value of 52.8, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in December was - 6.2 (expected - 7, previous value - 7.4) [1]. Contract Information - On December 11, the main contract 2602 closed at 1689.0, with a gain of 2.04%, a trading volume of 18,700 lots, and an open interest of 31,600 lots, an increase of 241 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [2]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [2]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [2].

Core Insights - The private sector activity in Kenya expanded for the third consecutive month in November, reaching its highest level in five years, driven by improvements across various industries [1] - The Stanbic Bank Kenya Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 55.0 in November, up from 52.5 in October, marking the highest value since October 2020 [1] - The surge in business activity is translating into the strongest hiring spree in over two years, with significant signs of strengthening in the labor market, as employment growth accelerated for the tenth consecutive month [1] Industry Performance - Five monitored sectors, including services, construction, and manufacturing, all reported growth, indicating broad-based improvements across the economy [1] - The increase in the PMI reflects a robust recovery in the private sector, suggesting positive momentum for future economic activities [1]

12月4日，周三公布的一项调查显示，欧元区 11 月的商业活动以两年半以来的最快速度增长，强劲的服 务业抵消了制造业的疲软态势。由标普全球编制的11月HCOB综合PMI终值上修为52.8，创下30个月以 来的新高，显示私营部门经济增长势头强劲，高于10月的52.4和预期的52.4，这是其连续第六个月上 涨。PMI 指数高于 50.0 表明经济活动呈增长态势，而低于该水平则意味着经济出现收缩。 汉堡商业银 行首席经济学家Cyrus de la Rubia表示："欧元区的服务业已显示出明显的复苏迹象。服务业的强劲表现 甚至足以抵消制造业的疲弱，这意味着欧元区 11 月的经济产出增速略高于上月。" 来源：市场资讯 欧元/美元 欧元昨日震荡上行，刷新7周高位，现汇价交投于1.1660附近。除美联储12月份的降息预期持续升温是 支撑欧元攀升的主要原因外，时段内欧元区表现良好的经济数据进一步降温欧洲央行的降息预期也对汇 价构成了一定的支撑。此外，时段内美国表现疲软的"小非农"报告也是支撑欧元攀升的重要因素。今日 关注1.1750附近的压力情况，下方支撑在1.1550附近。 英镑/美元 英镑昨日大幅攀升，突破1.3300关 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In early December, the market will still be in a multi - vacuum period of macro data, performance, and policies. Without clear trading guidance, the market is expected to remain in a random - walk state, and stock index futures will maintain volatility. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - **Futures Contracts**: All main and secondary main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM declined. For example, the IF main contract (2512) was at 4518.2, down 13.6; the IH main contract (2512) was at 2958.4, down 10.4; the IC main contract (2512) was at 6950.4, down 28.8; the IM main contract (2512) was at 7195.4, down 41.8. [2] - **Contract Spreads**: All spreads between different contracts declined, such as the IF - IH monthly contract spread was 1559.8, down 4.6; the IC - IF monthly contract spread was 2432.2, down 14.2. [2] - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: Most quarter - to - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased, e.g., IF quarter - to - month was - 35.8, up 3.0; IH quarter - to - month was - 7.2, up 0.4. [2] - **Top 20 Net Positions**: The net positions of IF and IM among the top 20 increased, while those of IH and IC decreased. The IF top 20 net position was - 18,212.00, up 96.0; the IH top 20 net position was - 11,672.00, down 207.0. [2] 3.2 Spot Price and Basis - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 was at 4531.05, down 23.3; the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 was at 2963.1, down 15.4. [2] - **Basis**: The basis of all main contracts increased. The IF main contract basis was - 12.9, up 5.7; the IH main contract basis was - 4.7, up 2.4. [2] 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Turnover and Balance**: A - share turnover and margin trading balance increased. A - share turnover was 16,835.56 billion yuan, up 762.89 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 24,864.54 billion yuan, up 21.43 billion yuan. [2] - **North - bound Trading and Others**: North - bound trading volume decreased, while reverse repurchase operation volume increased. North - bound trading volume was 1797.60 billion yuan, down 500.03 billion yuan; reverse repurchase operation volume was - 2133.0 billion yuan, up 793.0 billion yuan. [2] - **Option Data**: The closing price of the IO at - the - money call option decreased, while that of the put option increased. The closing price of the IO at - the - money call option (2512) was 63.40, down 11.80; the closing price of the IO at - the - money put option (2512) was 44.20, up 5.20. [2] 3.4 Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - **Overall A - shares**: The overall A - share market was weak, with the overall A - share score at 3.40, down 0.10; the technical aspect score was 2.60, down 0.20; the capital aspect score was 4.20, unchanged. [2] 3.5 Industry News - **PMI Data**: In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points. [2] - **Stock Market Performance**: A - share major indices closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.78%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.12%. Most industry sectors declined, with media and computer sectors weakening significantly, and transportation and non - ferrous metals sectors leading the gains. [2] 3.6 Key Data to Watch - On December 3 at 21:15, the US November ADP employment data; on December 4 at 20:30, the US November Challenger job - cut data; at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week of November 29; on December 5 at 23:00, the US November PCE and core PCE data. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to see a decrease in industrial steel production in December, while the decline in downstream manufacturing is slowing, leading to limited demand reduction for steel. Overall, the supply-demand pressure in the industrial steel market is easing, and prices are anticipated to rise slightly in December due to potential policy support [3][10]. Steel PMI Analysis - The steel industry PMI for November 2025 is reported at 48.00%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month [3][10]. - The production index dropped from 49.80% to 46.00%, indicating a significant slowdown in production, consistent with seasonal maintenance typical in December [3][10]. - The finished product inventory index fell by 2.60 percentage points to 49.10%, signaling a reduction in inventory levels [3][10]. - New export orders decreased to 47.20%, down 7.10 percentage points, reflecting a relatively weak export recovery [3][10]. - The new orders index increased to 48.90%, up 1.30 percentage points, marking two consecutive months of growth, with domestic demand becoming the primary driver [3][10]. Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for November 2025 stands at 49.20%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points from the previous month [5][12]. - The production index is at 50.00%, up 0.30 percentage points, indicating stable demand for upstream raw materials like steel [5][12]. - The new orders index rose to 49.20%, an increase of 0.40 percentage points, while the procurement index increased to 49.50%, up 0.50 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in demand decline [5][12]. Price Outlook for December - The overall steel production enthusiasm is declining, and the rebar market is performing better than expected, leading to a forecasted decrease in industrial steel output for December [6][13]. - Demand from manufacturing enterprises is expected to continue declining, but the extent of the decline is limited, indicating a potential easing of supply-demand conflicts [6][13]. - Anticipated influences from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and possible domestic macroeconomic and monetary policy support suggest that industrial steel prices may rise slightly before experiencing a downturn [6][13].