Group 1 - The 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increased by 3 basis points to 3.914% and 4.43% respectively, while the 30-year yield rose by 1 basis point to 4.96% [2] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 were reported at 217,000, lower than the previous week by 4,000 and below the expected 227,000 [2] - New home sales in June grew by only 0.6% to 627,000 units, falling short of the expected 645,000 units [2] Group 2 - President Trump visited the Federal Reserve, marking the first formal visit by a U.S. president in nearly 20 years, during which he expressed a desire for lower interest rates [3][4] - The European Central Bank decided to maintain interest rates, leading to a significant sell-off in European bonds, with 10-year German bond yields rising by 10.7 basis points to 2.705% [4] - The UK PMI index for July decreased from 52.0 to 51.0, indicating only slight growth in business activity, while UK bond yields saw minor increases [4] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 2-year yield reaching 0.844% and the 10-year yield at 1.603% [5] - The U.S. Treasury has no bond issuance scheduled for the upcoming Friday, but plans to issue a total of $448 billion in bonds on July 28 and 29 [5][6] - The actual net financing needs of the U.S. Treasury for the second quarter reached $514 billion, exceeding earlier estimates by $391 billion [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market may rebound. Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, trading is challenging, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][3]. 3. Summaries by Related Content 3.1 Freight Indexes - **July 18 - 21 Changes**: The NCFI (composite index) was 1147.96 points on July 21, down 5.75% from the previous period; SCFIS (European route) was 2400.50 points, down 0.9%; NCFI (European route) was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; SCFIS (US West route) was 1301.81 points, up 2.8%; NCFI (US West route) was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [1]. - **July 18 Changes**: SCFI was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points; CCFI (composite index) was 1303.54 points, down 0.8%; SCFI (European route) was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; CCFI (European route) was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; SCFI (US West route) was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4%; CCFI (US West route) was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [1]. 3.2 Economic Data - **Eurozone in June**: Manufacturing PMI was 49.4, Services PMI was 50 (2 - month high), Composite PMI was 50.2, and Sentix Investor Confidence Index was 0.2 [2]. - **China in June**: Caixin Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May [2]. - **US in June**: Markit Manufacturing PMI was 52, Services PMI was 53.1 (2 - month low), and Composite PMI was 52.8 (2 - month low) [2]. 3.3 Market Influences - Trump's tariff policy targeting Southeast Asian countries has increased trading difficulty, and some shipping companies have announced freight rate hikes. The tariff negotiation is postponed to August 1. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, tariff uncertainties, and spot freight rate adjustments [3]. - On July 22, the main contract 2510 closed at 1548.0, down 6.10%, with a trading volume of 66,700 lots and an open interest of 51,700 lots, an increase of 549 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Short - term**: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are recommended to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300), and consider adding positions if it continues to decline. Consider shorting the EC2512 contract above 1950 [4]. - **Arbitrage**: In the context of international instability, the market has a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term**: Take profit when contracts rise, and wait for the market to stabilize after a decline before making further decisions [4]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - **Price Limits**: The price limits for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - **Margin Requirements**: The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - **Intraday Position Limits**: The intraday position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic indicators and trends in different sectors, highlighting the current state of liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, along with price movements and production metrics. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points [3] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.07% from the previous month [3] - London gold prices increased by 1.94% compared to the previous week [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in late June was 2.129 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.88% [4] - Price changes included rebar up by 2.91%, cement price index down by 1.68%, and iron ore up by 3.55% [4] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires changed by -0.54 percentage points, +16.00 percentage points, -0.6 percentage points, and -1.89 percentage points respectively [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and flat glass decreased by 1.47% and remained unchanged respectively, with glass profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1227 CNY/ton [5] - The operating rate for flat glass was 75.68% this week [5] Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for June was 50.20%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [6] - Major commodity prices showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel and copper prices increasing by 0.27% and 0.22%, while aluminum prices decreased by 0.91% [6] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 70.41%, down by 7.64 percentage points [6] Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum reached a record high since 2012 in May [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,750 CNY/ton, down by 0.91%, with a calculated profit of 3,428 CNY/ton (excluding tax) [7] - The price of graphite electrodes remained stable at 18,000 CNY/ton, with a comprehensive profit of 1,357.4 CNY/ton, down by 5.56% [7] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore reached a near seven-month high at 4.27 this week [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 110 CNY/ton, while the price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 340 CNY/ton, up by 170 CNY/ton [8] - The price difference for small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 140 CNY/ton, down by 26.32% from last week [8] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1,342.99 points, down by 1.92% [9] - The capacity utilization rate for U.S. crude steel was 79.10%, down by 0.50 percentage points [9] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.54%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being ordinary steel, which rose by 6.52% [10] - The PB ratios for ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB were 37.44% and 69.40% respectively [10] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 PB is 0.53, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

Macro Overview - June PMI indicates weak internal momentum, with manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, non-manufacturing PMI at 50.5%, and composite PMI at 50.7%, all showing slight increases of 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[9] - The divergence in PMI reflects significant differences between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises showing improved conditions likely due to rising commodity prices[10] - Employment indicators and service sector PMI have declined, suggesting a slowdown in internal momentum[10] Market Performance - The equity market saw a volume decrease with an average trading volume of 1.4414 trillion CNY, down 45.3 billion CNY week-on-week[8] - Major indices performed as follows: Shanghai Composite Index up 1.40%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.25%, and ChiNext Index up 1.50%[8] - The bond market experienced a decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to range between 1.6% and 1.7%[8] International Context - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, exceeding the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3%[8] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are approximately 80%, down from 98% prior to the non-farm report[8] - The U.S. Congress passed a significant tax and spending bill, which has reduced short-term concerns about fiscal sustainability[8] Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential underperformance of the economy and trade negotiations not meeting expectations[8] - The upcoming week will focus on key economic indicators, including June PPI and CPI, with expectations of -3.19% and 0.00% respectively[14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The June PMI shows that the domestic prosperity level remains in an expansion state, which is beneficial to the stock market. The State Council Executive Meeting emphasizes strengthening the main position of enterprise technological innovation, which is expected to bring more benefits to growth - style technology stocks. The recent weakening of the US dollar index has also relieved the pressure on the RMB exchange rate. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF (2509) is 3894.2 (+4.8), IH (2509) is 2696.8 (+4.2), IC (2509) is 5756.6 (-14.0), IM (2509) is 6117.0 (-17.0). IF (2507) is 3921.0 (+6.0), IH (2507) is 2703.0 (+4.6), IC (2507) is 5856.6 (-15.4), IM (2507) is 6262.2 (-24.8) [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: IF - IH spread is 1218.0 (+2.4), IC - IF spread is 1935.6 (-20.8), etc. [2]. - **Season - to - Current Month Spreads**: IF when - season to current month is - 26.8 (-1.2), IH is - 6.2 (0.0), IC is - 100.0 (+3.4), IM is - 145.2 (+8.2) [2]. Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is - 30,725.00 (+104.0), IH is - 11,962.00 (-155.0), IC is - 10,395.00 (+7.0), IM is - 34,573.00 (-258.0) [2]. Spot Price - CSI 300 is 3943.68 (+0.9), SSE 50 is 2722.55 (+4.8), CSI 500 is 5892.95 (-41.7), CSI 1000 is 6309.48 (-64.3) [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 14,051.09 billion yuan (-914.22 billion), margin trading balance is 18,545.63 billion yuan. North - bound trading volume is 1318.02 billion yuan (-260.71 billion) [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks is 35.87% (-12.64%), Shibor is 1.365% (-0.002) [2]. Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score is 4.00 (-1.60), technical aspect is 3.60 (-1.20), capital aspect is 4.40 (-1.90) [2]. Industry News - China's June official manufacturing PMI is 49.7, up 0.2 points from last month; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.5%, up 0.2 points; comprehensive PMI is 50.7%, up 0.3 points [2]. - A - share major indices generally declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.13% [2]. Key Data to Focus On - On July 2, at 19:30, focus on US June Challenger job - cuts; at 20:15, focus on US June ADP employment [3]. - On July 3, at 20:30, focus on US June non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai Copper fluctuates at a high level, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index continues to operate in the negative range, but the long - term contract TC has improved, and the tight supply of copper concentrates has eased. The supply is stable with a slight increase, but domestic supply has tightened due to increased export intentions. The demand is seasonally weak, leading to low trading activity in the spot market. Social inventory remains stable at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals are in a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply and temporarily weak demand, and the copper ore supply is expected to improve. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis with a converging red column. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Copper is 80,540 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,937 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 190 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai Copper is 223,122 lots, down 861 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai Copper are 5,895 lots, down 8,048 lots. The LME copper inventory is 91,250 tons, up 625 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 81,550 tons, down 19,264 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of cathode copper is 25,097 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 80,990 yuan/ton, up 785 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 80,955 yuan/ton, up 710 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 49 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 30 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 450 yuan/ton, up 885 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 116.30 dollars/ton, down 65.39 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 44.81 dollars/kiloton, down 0.03 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 71,250 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,950 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, and the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 56,090 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 209.60 million tons, up 1.50 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 2,039.86 billion yuan, up 631.69 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 36,233.84 billion yuan, up 8,504.27 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,235,000,000 pieces, up 68,000,000 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper is 9.21%, down 0.15%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.43%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money options is 15.91%, up 0.0168. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.68, up 0.0444 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From January to May this year, the added value of large - scale light industry enterprises increased by 7% year - on - year, with an operating income of 9.27 trillion yuan. The retail sales of furniture products increased by 21.4% year - on - year, and that of household appliances and audio - visual equipment increased by 30.2% year - on - year. In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in May. In June, BYD's sales volume was 382,500 vehicles, up 11.9% year - on - year; Leapmotor's delivery volume was 48,006 vehicles, up more than 138% year - on - year; Seres' sales volume was 46,086 vehicles, up 4.44% year - on - year; Li Auto's delivery volume was 36,279 vehicles, down 24% year - on - year; XPeng Motors' delivery volume was 34,611 vehicles, up 224% year - on - year. Xiaomi Auto's delivery volume exceeded 25,000 vehicles, and NIO's delivery volume was 24,925 vehicles, up 17.5% year - on - year. The Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed might adopt a more accommodative monetary policy without Trump's tariff policy. He did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, and most Fed members expect another rate cut later this year. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in June rose to 49, still in the contraction range for four consecutive months, with new orders decreasing for five consecutive months and the price - paid index approaching the highest level since June 2022, indicating a slight acceleration of inflation [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Due to port congestion and shipping companies' intention to raise price centers in late July, short positions can consider full profit - taking. In the context of geopolitical conflicts, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][3]. - The overall supply - demand situation has not changed significantly, but the SCFIS has continued to rise. The market should pay attention to negotiation results, tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - On June 30, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1366.47 points, down 1.13% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1442.95 points, up 11.03% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1553.68 points, down 2.04% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1861.51 points, down 8.08 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 2030 USD/TEU, up 10.63% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 2578 USD/FEU, down 7.00% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1369.34 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1640.72 points, up 3.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1212.09 points, down 3.6% from the previous period [1]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50, a two - month high; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, with an expected value of 50.5 and a previous value of 50.2; the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, with an expected value of - 6 and a previous value of - 8.1 [1]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point [1]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May and higher than the expected 51, the highest level since February; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7 and higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53 and higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low [1]. 3.3 Market Conditions and Strategy - On July 1, the main contract 2508 closed at 1904.9, up 7.80%, with a trading volume of 68,800 lots and an open interest of 40,500 lots, an increase of 1248 lots from the previous day [3]. - Short - term strategy: When the fundamentals do not show an obvious turn, it is recommended to try short positions on rallies. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000 (with a profit margin of more than 200 points). Short positions can consider taking profits. For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to try long positions lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 and set stop - losses and take - profits [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for each contract, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%; the company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%; the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4]. 3.4 Geopolitical Events - According to the Associated Press on June 29, US President Trump said he had no intention of extending the 90 - day tariff suspension period for most countries and regions beyond July 9. Once the negotiation period expires, trade punishment measures will take effect unless an agreement is reached [5]. - On June 30, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that the Egyptian Foreign Minister discussed the diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue and the resumption of negotiations with the Director - General of the International Atomic Energy Agency [5].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June increased to 49.7%, marking a rise for two consecutive months, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [1][2] - The new orders index returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in market demand [2] - The production index rose to 51%, reflecting stable expansion in production activities, while the purchasing volume index increased significantly by 2.6 percentage points to 50.2% [2] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for June was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion [3] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, attributed to seasonal declines in consumer travel demand post-holidays [3] - The construction sector showed accelerated expansion with a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, driven by ongoing infrastructure projects [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities [5] - The second quarter's average non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, consistent with the first quarter, suggesting stable expansion in the first half of the year [4] - Analysts emphasize the need for continued macroeconomic policy support to stimulate growth and address demand shortages in the manufacturing sector [5][6]

Economic Resilience - In the first half of the year, the Chinese economy demonstrated resilience amid complex domestic and international conditions, supported by a series of proactive policy measures [1] - The manufacturing PMI and composite PMI both showed a rebound for two consecutive months in June, indicating a gradual stabilization and improvement in the economy [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking a continuous recovery in the economic climate [1] - Production activities in June accelerated despite it being a traditional off-peak season, showing a seasonal anomaly [1] - The purchasing volume index rose significantly by 2.6 percentage points to 50.2%, while raw material inventory increased by 0.6 percentage points to 48%, the highest level this year [1] - The new orders index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, indicating an overall improvement in market demand [1] Key Industries - The three major industries—equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods—maintained good expansion momentum, with PMIs of 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4% respectively, all remaining in the expansion zone for two consecutive months [2] - Equipment manufacturing showed particularly active production and demand, driving collaborative development across related industries [2] - The high-tech manufacturing sector provided strong support for economic transformation and high-quality development [2] - The consumer goods sector's steady expansion reflected improving consumer confidence and recovering market demand [2] Construction Sector - The construction business activity index rose to 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the sector's climate [2] - The positive trend was supported by government policies and funding guarantees, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and local government special bonds [2] Service Sector - The service sector maintained steady expansion, with a business activity index of 50.1%, despite a slight decline due to seasonal factors [3] - Certain service industries, such as telecommunications, financial services, and insurance, remained robust with business activity indices above 60% [3] - The service sector's business activity expectations index remained high, reflecting optimism about future market developments [3] Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The issuance of new special bonds accelerated significantly in June, focusing on key areas to support economic growth [4] - The first round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions for the year has been fully implemented, alleviating pressure on the banking system and reducing financing costs [4] - The central bank and other departments are expected to introduce more incremental policies to further promote high-quality economic development [4] Real Estate Support - The central and local governments are increasing support for the real estate sector, with measures aimed at stabilizing the market and optimizing existing policies [5] - More special bond funds are expected to be allocated to areas such as shantytown renovation and old community upgrades to improve living conditions [5]

Market Performance - Market indexes are at all-time highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq leading, and a +20% increase from near-term lows in early April 2025 [1] - The Nasdaq has experienced a +17.2% increase in Q2 2025, marking its best performance since Q2 2020 [6] - The Dow is currently -2.7% from all-time highs, but has gained +230 points recently, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have also seen increases of +20 and +120 points respectively [6] Economic Indicators - The week is significant for job-related reports, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ADP private-sector payrolls, and the U.S. Employment Report [2] - ADP figures show a low of +37K, with negative monthly changes in Professional/Business Services (-17K), Education/Healthcare (-13K), and Trade/Transportation/Utilities (-4K) [3] - Continuing Jobless Claims reached their highest level in 3.5 years, nearing 2 million for the week [3] Upcoming Reports - Key reports expected this week include final prints on U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI, Construction spending, Factory Orders, and Auto Sales [4] - The Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) for June is anticipated to rise to 43.0 from 40.5, indicating improved business outlooks [5]