Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cement industry [6][27]. Core Insights - The cement industry is expected to see significant improvement in performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, driven by anti-involution measures and a focus on high-quality development [1][4]. - The historical success of supply-side reforms has led to a reduction in new cement production lines, alleviating supply-demand imbalances, but recent market demand declines have intensified competition [2][3]. - The regulatory framework for anti-involution policies is being strengthened, with measures to address overproduction expected to be a key focus in the second half of 2025 [3][4]. - Companies with integrated operations and global expansion strategies are positioned for long-term growth, with specific recommendations for Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material [1][4][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cement industry has experienced a significant drop in average prices, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% as of July 11, 2025, leading to a renewed call for anti-involution measures [2][3]. Performance Forecasts - Five cement companies have reported impressive performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with some expecting net profit increases of over 100% year-on-year [4][8]. Policy Developments - Recent policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the inclusion of the cement industry in carbon emissions trading are expected to enhance the regulatory framework for managing overproduction [3][4]. Company Recommendations - The report highlights Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material as key investment opportunities due to their competitive advantages in scale, cost, and energy efficiency [1][4][8].

| [Table_Author] 分析师: | 张河生 | | --- | --- | | Tel: | 021-53686158 | | E-mail: | zhanghesheng@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870523100004 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《关注供给侧改革预期升温带来的投资机 会》 ——2025 年 07月 07日 《关注经贸协议最终落地情况》 ——2025 年 07月 01日 《中东地缘冲突再升级，资本市场短期受 影响》 ——2025 年 06月 25日 A 股投资者风险偏好有望保持高位 ——固收&宏观周报（20250707-20250713） [Table_I 日期 ndustry] : shzqdatemark 2025年07月14日 [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 美股下跌，纳斯达克中国科技股与恒生指数上涨。 过去一周（20250707-20250713），纳斯达克、标普 500 指数与道 琼斯工业平均指数分别变化-0.08%、-0.31%与-1.02%，纳斯达克中国 科技股指数变化 1.83%；同时期恒生指数变化 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Market performance: Last Friday, precious metal prices rose, and silver prices soared due to expectations of additional tariffs [1]. - Fundamental factors: China and the US foreign ministers met in Kuala Lumpur, agreeing to strengthen communication and dialogue. Trump announced a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU starting August 1st. Fed Chairman Powell might consider resigning. Domestic gold ETFs had outflows, and inventories in various locations changed [1]. - Trading strategy: For gold, considering the unchanged de - dollarization logic, it is recommended to go long. For silver, short - term risk - avoidance is advised with long positions closed, but in the long - term, industrial silver use is turning downward [1]. Group 2: Base Metals Copper - Market performance: On Friday, copper prices oscillated weakly [2]. - Fundamental factors: Trump unexpectedly increased tariffs on most countries, leading to lower market risk appetite. After the proposed 50% tariff on copper on August 1st, London and domestic inventories increased. The long - term copper price has upward momentum due to the tight copper mine situation and global fiscal expansion expectations [2]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [2]. Aluminum - Market performance: On Friday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract decreased by 0.02% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production with an increase in weekly operating capacity. Demand - side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased [2]. - Trading strategy: The domestic aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, supporting the price. However, due to macro uncertainties and weak downstream demand, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Alumina - Market performance: On Friday, the closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 2.83% compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, alumina plants' production was stable. Demand - side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading strategy: Some northern alumina plants are in the maintenance period, causing a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The market is in a game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended to operate within a range and partially close long positions [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: On Thursday, the main 09 contract opened higher and then oscillated. The price decreased by 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 13,427 lots [3]. - Fundamental factors: Last week, the market rebounded due to the "anti - involution" sentiment. Supply - side, Yunnan contributed a small increase in start - up. Demand - side, polysilicon start - up was stable, organic silicon production was stable, and the aluminum alloy downstream was in the off - season [3]. - Trading strategy: After the futures price rebound, different cost manufacturers will gradually hedge. There is an expectation of increased start - up, but short - term support exists. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: On Friday, the main LC2509 contract closed at 64,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, the expected production in July increased by 3.92% month - on - month. Demand - side, the downstream production plan increased marginally, but inventory continued to reach new highs [3]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell the far - month LC2511 contract at high levels [3]. Polysilicon - Market performance: On Friday, the main 08 contract opened higher and then oscillated. The price decreased by 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 12,676 lots [3]. - Fundamental factors: Last week, the market rose significantly due to "anti - involution" expectations. Supply - side, production increased slightly, and there is a复产 expectation. Demand - side, the production plan of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased in July [3]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the progress of leading enterprises in solving supply - demand imbalances and the actual procurement price in the silicon wafer market next week. Partially close long positions [3]. Tin - Market performance: On Friday, tin prices oscillated [3]. - Fundamental factors: Trump's additional tariffs slightly suppressed risk appetite. Supply - side, the tin mine situation remained tight, but the复产 expectation pressured the price. Demand - side, downstream procurement was on - demand, and global weekly inventory decreased [3]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a weak - oscillation - within - a - range approach [3]. Group 3: Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main 2510 contract of rebar oscillated weakly, closing at 3,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamental factors: The supply and demand of building materials were both weak, but low production reduced inventory pressure. The supply and demand of steel were balanced. Market sentiment improved, and macro data will have a significant impact this week [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see and try the 10/1 reverse spread of rebar. The reference range for RB10 is 3,100 - 3,160 [4]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of iron ore oscillated strongly, closing at 764 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamental factors: The supply and demand of iron ore were neutral. Steel mill profits expanded marginally, and production will remain stable. Supply followed the seasonal pattern. Market sentiment improved, and macro data will be important this week [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see. Layout a long position in the 2605 coil - to - ore ratio. The reference range for I09 is 750 - 780 [4]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of coking coal oscillated strongly, closing at 921.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamental factors: Iron production decreased slightly, and steel mill profits expanded. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the first round of price increases is being discussed. Supply - side inventory is differentiated. Market sentiment improved, and macro data will matter this week [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see. The reference range for JM09 is 890 - 930 [4]. Group 4: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans fell due to a slightly bearish USDA report [5]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, the near - term international supply is loose, and the long - term is expected to be loose. Demand - side, South America is dominant in the short - term, and there are uncertainties in US soybean production and tariff policies [5]. - Trading strategy: Short - term, US soybeans are in a range - bound oscillation. Domestic soybeans follow international cost. Pay attention to weather and tariff policies [5]. Corn - Market performance: The 2509 contract of corn continued to decline, and the spot price also fell [5][6]. - Fundamental factors: This year's supply - demand is tightening marginally. Substitute imports decreased, but wheat substitution and import grain auctions affect the price. The spot price is expected to be weak [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the low auction turnover rate of imported corn [6]. Sugar - Market performance: ICE raw sugar 10 contract had a weekly increase of 1.85%, and Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract had a weekly increase of 0.21% [6]. - Fundamental factors: The domestic commodity market sentiment was good, and domestic and international markets rebounded together. Import sugar arrivals are increasing, and the 09 contract is expected to be weak [6]. - Trading strategy: In the futures market, go short at high levels; in the options market, sell call options [6]. Cotton - Market performance: Last Friday, US cotton prices oscillated and fell. Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated upward [6]. - Fundamental factors: International data adjustments had little impact. Market sentiment was bearish. Domestically, low commercial inventories were concerned, but downstream start - up rates decreased and product inventories increased [6]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [6]. Palm Oil - Market performance: Recently, palm oil has been strong, and the trading center has shifted upward [6]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, production in the producing areas weakened marginally. Demand - side, exports decreased month - on - month, but there is support in annual demand [6]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, P is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to overweight in the sector, and the annual supply is expected to be tight. Pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [6]. Eggs - Market performance: The 2508 contract of eggs oscillated narrowly, and the spot price increased [6]. - Fundamental factors: Farmers are in losses, and old hen culling is expected to decrease. Supply is high, and demand is affected by price and weather. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate due to sufficient supply and cost support [6]. Hogs - Market performance: The 2509 contract of hogs oscillated narrowly, and the spot price had a north - up and south - down pattern [6]. - Fundamental factors: Consumption is seasonally weak, slaughterhouses are reducing losses, and supply is increasing. The price is expected to decline in the medium - term [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust due to weak demand [6]. Apples - Market performance: The main contract had a weekly increase of 0.49%. Apple prices in Shandong were stable [6][7]. - Fundamental factors: The opening price of new - season early - maturing apples increased. There are differences in this year's production. Current consumption is weak, and the market has few contradictions [7]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see [7]. Group 5: Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: On Friday, the main LLDPE contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in North China was 7,200 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [7]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, new plants were put into operation, and domestic supply increased. Import is expected to decrease. Demand - side, it is the end of the off - season for agricultural film [7]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high levels [7]. PVC - Market performance: The v09 contract closed at 4,980, a decrease of 0.5% [7]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is expected to increase, and social inventory is accumulating. Wait for the implementation of production - cut policies [7]. - Trading strategy: Close short positions and wait and see as the rebound lacks momentum [7]. PTA - Market performance: PX CFR China price was 837 US dollars/ton, and PTA spot price was 4,710 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamental factors: PX supply is low, and PTA supply is increasing. Polyester load decreased, and the supply - demand is expected to be loose [7]. - Trading strategy: Go long on PX, look for short - term positive spread opportunities in PTA, and short - sell processing fees in the long - term [7]. Glass - Market performance: The fg09 contract closed at 1,086, an increase of 2% [7][8]. - Fundamental factors: Spot sales improved, supply is increasing, and inventory is decreasing. The downstream situation is not good, and the valuation is complex [7][8]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see and follow the implementation of production - cut policies [8]. PP - Market performance: On Friday, the main PP contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China was 7,100 yuan/ton, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [8]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is increasing, and demand is differentiated. The export situation of downstream products is worthy of attention [8]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will oscillate weakly. In the long - term, short - sell far - month contracts at high levels [8]. MEG - Market performance: The East China spot price of MEG was 4,384 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is at a high level, and inventory is at a low level. Polyester load decreased, and the supply - demand is balanced [8]. - Trading strategy: MEG is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels [8]. Crude Oil - Market performance: Last week, oil prices oscillated strongly due to low inventory and stable demand [8]. - Fundamental factors: US gasoline demand was stable. OPEC+ and non - OPEC countries will increase production, and the market is expected to be oversupplied, especially in the fourth quarter [8]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to inventory accumulation and short - sell at high levels [8]. EB - Market performance: On Friday, the main EB contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China was 7,730 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [8][9]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, pure benzene and styrene inventories have different trends. Demand - side, downstream profits are poor, and product inventory is high. Export demand is a key factor [8][9]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will oscillate. In the long - term, short - sell far - month contracts at high levels [9]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The sa09 contract closed at 1,214, a decrease of 0.9% [9]. - Fundamental factors: Supply increased as a plant resumed production, and inventory accumulated. Downstream demand from photovoltaic glass is weak [9]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell at high levels as the fundamentals are weak [9].

| 五、宏观信息 | | | --- | --- | | 上交所发布《科创板上市公司自律监管指引第5号-科创成长层》。上交所相关负责人答记者问表示，这次改革没有针对未盈利企业纳入科创成长层设置额外的 | 上市门槛，存量32家未盈利企业将自指引发布实施之日起进入科创成长层，新注册的未盈利企业将自上市之日起进入。本次改革没有对个人投资者参与科创成 | | 长层股票交易新增投资交易门槛，仍为具备"50万元资产+2年经验"的资金门槛和投资经验即可。投资者投资科创成长层新注册的未盈利科技型企业之前需要 | | | 。科创成长层企业按照规定发布符合调出条件的公告后，上交所原则上在2个交易日内将企业调出。 | 签署专门风险揭示书。科创成长层调出条件实施"新老划断"。存量企业调出条件保持不变，仍为上市后首次实现盈利，同时提高新注册未盈利企业调出条件 | | 外交部长王毅在北京会见俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫。王毅表示，上合组织是开展全面战略协作、倡导多边主义、加强务实合作、增进全球南方团结的重要平台。中 方现任轮值主席国，我们愿同俄方及其它成员国共同筹备好天津峰会，规划未来发展方向，赋能各领域合作，推动上合组织建设迈上新台阶。 | | ...

证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*专题报告 2025 年 07 月 14 日 投资策略研究 苦于"弱现实"久矣，正视我们在改善——周度策略行业配置观点 一周热点事件复盘：特朗普施压巴西，中国 CPI&PPI 分化，台积电中报 数据揭示全球 AI 竞赛仍在继续。本周（2025 年 7 月 7 日-2025 年 7 月 11 日）A 股延续升势，上证指数站稳 3500 点，上证指数周涨 1.09%，深证成 指周涨 1.78%，创业板指周涨 2.35%，科创 50 周涨 0.98%，全市场日均成 交额 1.50 万亿元；市场结构呈现显著分化：科技成长主线中半导体受美 国取消芯片设计软件出口限制提振，但消费电子链受美国对巴西等 6 国加 征关税冲击（8 月 1 日生效）承压，创新药受益于医保局政策和中报业绩 预期，本周行情表现出较强的持续性；周期与金融板块强势崛起，中央财 经委会议定调"反内卷"政策直接驱动钢、光伏玻璃板块上涨，金融板块 受到市场对政策预期的影响，表现较为亮眼，市场对于银行板块的关注度 有所提升，外部风险（美欧贸易谈判延期缓和情绪）与政策预期（反内卷 扩内需）共同作用下，市场在量能支撑下突破关键点位，但 ...

2025 第（126）期 发布日期：2025-07-14 中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 号 | | 宏观指标 | 2025/7/14 | 2025/7/11 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44371.51 | 44650.64 | -279.130 | -0.625 | | | | 纳斯达克指数 | 20585.53 | 20630.66 | -45.130 | -0.219 | | 中原期货研究咨询部 | | 标普500 | 6259.75 | 6280.46 | -20.710 | -0.330 | | 0371-58620081 | | 恒生指数 SHIBOR隔夜 | 24139.57 1.33 | 24028.37 1.32 | 111.20 0.017 | 0.463 1.292 | | 0371-58620083 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, both China and the US will release a series of important economic data. In the US, the June CPI and PPI data, as well as the July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value, are highly noteworthy. Economists expect the June CPI to rise 2.7% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.4%, and the core CPI to rise 3% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in July are less than 7%, but an unexpected inflation data may force the Fed to act. In China, the June import and export data, June M2 year - on - year, January - June new RMB loans, and social financing scale increment are all important [8]. - The stock index futures are in a long - position pattern. Last week, the market continued to rise due to expectations of supply - side reform and rumors of the restart of shantytown renovation. The current policy focus on the supply side is conducive to the repair of price indicators and has a positive impact on corporate profits. As long as there is no unexpected negative news, the long - position pattern is expected to continue. However, the trend may be reversed by external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment [9]. - For various commodities, different trends are predicted, such as gold showing an upward trend in a volatile manner, silver breaking through and rising, and copper prices being under pressure due to weak spot markets [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US and China Economic Data Focus - **US Data**: The June CPI and PPI data are crucial. Economists expect the June CPI to rise 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI to rise 3% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value also deserves attention. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in July are less than 7%, but lower - than - expected inflation data may lead to an emergency rate cut [8]. - **China Data**: The June import and export data, June M2 year - on - year, January - June new RMB loans, and social financing scale increment are all worthy of high attention [8]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The current market is in a long - position pattern. The core changes last week came from expectations of supply - side reform and rumors of shantytown renovation restart, leading to a joint upward movement of cyclical and growth stocks. The policy focus on the supply side is beneficial for price indicator repair and corporate profit improvement. Without unexpected negative news, the long - position pattern is likely to continue. The trend may be reversed by external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment. This week, the release of domestic economic data and the impact of mid - year report earnings announcements on growth - style stocks should be monitored [9][10]. 3.3 Commodity Market 3.3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold is expected to rise in a volatile manner, and silver is expected to break through and rise. The trend strength of both is 1 [13][19][21]. 3.3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The spot market is weak, and prices are under pressure. The trend strength is 0 [13][23][25]. - **Zinc**: It is bearish in the medium - term, with a trend strength of - 1 [13][26][27]. - **Lead**: Supported by peak - season expectations, the trend strength is 0 [13][29]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of 0 [13][31][34]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory is low, and the virtual - to - real ratio is high. Alumina requires attention to the inventory accumulation amplitude, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of all three is 0 [13][36][38]. - **Nickel**: The support from the ore end is loosening, and global refined nickel is marginally accumulating inventory. Stainless steel prices are oscillating due to the game between reality and macro factors. The trend strength of both is 0 [13][39][44]. 3.3.3 Energy - related Commodities - **Coke**: A first - round price increase has started, and it is expected to be strong in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 0 [13][66][68]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, it is expected to be strong in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 1 [13][66][68]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and the price is stabilizing in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 0 [13][69][71]. 3.3.4 Other Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, and macro and warehouse - receipt disturbances may occur repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [13][45][48]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to changes in the supply side. The trend strength is 1. Polysilicon is affected by policy disturbances, with increased market volatility, and the trend strength is 0 [13][49][51]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it is expected to be strong in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 0 [13][52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The sector sentiment remains strong, and prices are oscillating in a wide range. The trend strength of both is 1 [13][55][60]. - **Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Both are expected to oscillate in a wide range, with a trend strength of 0 for both [13][61][64].

盘面整体情绪有所缓和，现货贴水走阔 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 研究员：袁 棋 投资咨询号：Z0019013 第一部分 核心观点 第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 目 录 核心观点 宏观：美国非农就业人数大超预期，7月降息概率迅速下滑；国内以旧换新政策将继续，反内卷和供给侧改革声音出现，对盘面影响较大；美国对 外关税政策出台，比例较前期提升，但后续不确定性仍较大。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结： 电解铝-产业基本面总结： 2.1.1 氧化铝产能：6月在产产能同比增加9.14%，环比增加365万吨 据阿拉丁数据,2025年6月中国氧化铝总产能为11292万吨，同比增加8.56%，环比增加50万吨； 2025年6月中国氧化铝在产 产能为9315万吨，同比增加9.14%，环比增加365万吨。 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 6,000.00 7,000.00 8,000.00 9,000.00 10,000.00 11,000.00 12,000.00 2018-04 2018-09 2019-02 2019-07 2019 ...

市场结构上， 科技成长：人形机器人、AI+ 教育、AI+ 医疗等进入业绩与政策共振期，周一板块多股涨 停。 红利资产：银行、电力创新高，险资、社保、公募增量资金持续流入。消费修复：调整充分的品 牌消费品下半年有望迎来估值回归。 坚持价值投资、知行合一。房地产黄金十年已结束，权益市场黄金十年正在开启——通过持有优质公司 或优秀基金，分享时代红利。 上证指数站稳 3500 点后继续向上，机器人、人工智能等板块领涨，市场赚钱效应迅速回暖。上周我已 明确提示，"3500 点的突破宣告本轮"慢牛"正式确立，未来三年有望挑战 4000 点，该观点一度冲上热 搜。" 上证指数突破3500 点后继续上攻，机器人、人工智能等板块领涨，市场赚钱效应显著。3500 点的突破 标志着本轮"慢牛"正式确立，未来三年有望站上 4000 点。 下半年第一目标是挑战去年 10 月 8 日 3700 点的阶段高点，整体表现可能超预期。 支撑行情走强的三大逻辑：外部不确定性快速收敛，中东局势趋于停火，美国关税战"靴子"落地，对市 场的边际冲击递减，风险偏好回升。7 月经济数据再度确认"需求不足"，8 月起财政、货币双发力可 期：专项债加快发行、 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and strong. The core logic is that after the release of bearish sentiment from the previous sharp correction, a new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures, and the rebound in coal futures prices drives the methanol futures to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract closed 0.17% lower at 2376 yuan/ton last Friday night, and is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Monday [5]. - For the methanol 2509 contract, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and strong, with a reference view of strong operation [1][5]. Market Supply and Demand - With the continuous release of domestic methanol production capacity, the internal supply pressure is increasing. Overseas shipments are constantly arriving at ports, increasing external supply expectations. The ports are in a inventory - building cycle, while downstream demand has entered the off - season, resulting in a loose supply - demand structure [5]. Market Driving Factors - A new round of supply - side reform may come as the domestic high - level meeting emphasized governing low - price disorderly competition and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which boosts domestic commodity futures [5]. - The rebound in coal futures prices drives the domestic methanol futures [5].