7月，我国出口顶住外部压力，通过优化产品结构、贸易伙伴多元化、拓展外贸新动能等方式实现了超 预期增长。国内经济在财政、货币、产业、民生等政策支持下稳健运行。下半年，我国经济依然面临不 少风险挑战，7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细 更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。"国内宏观经济将在政策的大力支持 下延续稳中向好态势，为国际收支保持整体平衡和外储规模保持稳定奠定基础。"民生银行首席经济学 家温彬表示。 国家外汇管理局8月7日发布的统计数据显示，截至2025年7月末，我国外汇储备规模为32922亿美元，较 6月末下降252亿美元，降幅为0.76%。 谈及外汇储备规模变动的原因，业内专家认为，汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，导致7月外 汇储备规模下降。中银证券（601696）全球首席经济学家管涛对《金融时报》记者表示，7月我国外汇 储备规模小幅回落，主要是受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策及预期等因素影响，美元指数由此前 月度"五连跌"转为上涨，非美元货币对美元总体贬值产生的负估值效应。7月，美元指数上涨3.2%至 100.0，为5月下旬 ...

Group 1 - S&P Global Ratings maintains China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" with a stable outlook, reflecting confidence in the country's economic resilience and debt management effectiveness [1] - In the first half of 2025, China's economy grew by 5.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the entire previous year, indicating strong economic performance [1] - The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for China's economic growth rate in 2025 to 4.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous April forecast [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government is committed to ensuring stable economic growth through a combination of policies aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations [1] - Long-term factors supporting high-quality development in China include institutional advantages, a large market, a complete industrial system, and abundant talent resources [2] - China aims to enhance its internal economic momentum and dynamically adjust policies in response to changing domestic and international conditions to ensure sustained economic improvement [2]

Group 1 - S&P Global Ratings maintains China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" with a stable outlook, reflecting confidence in the country's economic resilience and debt management effectiveness [1] - In the first half of 2025, China's economy grew by 5.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the entire previous year, indicating strong economic performance [1] - The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for China's economic growth rate in 2025 to 4.8%, an upward adjustment of 0.8 percentage points from the previous April estimate [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government is committed to ensuring stable economic growth through a combination of policies aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations, thereby promoting domestic and international dual circulation [1] - Long-term factors supporting high-quality development in China include the advantages of the socialist system, a large market, a complete industrial system, and abundant talent resources [2] - China aims to enhance its internal economic momentum and dynamically adjust policies in response to changing domestic and international conditions to ensure sustained economic improvement [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View - The steel price is still expected to adjust, and it is advisable to wait and see [3] Group 3: Summary by Content - **Cost and Profit**: This week, the average tax - free hot metal cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,118 yuan/ton, and the average tax - included billet cost was 2,868 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the ex - factory price of common billets on August 6th (3,090 yuan/ton), the average profit of steel mills was 222 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton week - on - week [2] - **Fund Availability**: As of August 5th, the fund availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.5%, down 0.2 percentage points week - on - week. The fund availability rate of housing construction projects was 51.14%, remaining flat week - on - week [2] - **Market Situation**: Driven by the rise in coking coal prices, the finished products rose slightly during the day yesterday with a slight intraday increase. Currently, the overall steel market still has stronger supply than demand. Supply - side indicators such as daily hot metal output, blast furnace operating rate, and steel mill profitability are relatively high, while downstream demand is average, affected by monthly real - estate data and the rainy - season impact on construction sites. On the other hand, macro - level policies still drive up prices [2] - **Later Concerns**: Macro policies, supply - side production reduction situation, and downstream demand situation [3]

当前，外部环境复杂多变，主要发达经济体货币政策存在高度不确定性。受访专家普遍认为，当前，我 国货币政策有充分条件坚持"以我为主"，下半年海外货币政策调整对我国货币政策自主性的影响有限。 我国货币政策有条件坚持"以我为主" 下半年，尽管海外央行货币政策调整存在不确定性，我国货币政策仍有充分条件坚持"以我为主""对内 优先"。 当前，市场普遍预期美联储下半年重启降息，但降息节奏和路径尚不明朗。 "一方面，美国经济下行压力加大、财政赤字持续攀升等因素将推动美联储降息；另一方面，美国通胀 压力逐步显现，成为降息掣肘因素。"中国银行研究院全球经济团队主管熊启跃认为。 他还表示，考虑到美国加征关税可能对欧洲经济带来的冲击，以及欧洲财政扩张面临的赤字压力，欧洲 央行下半年也可能适时降息。此外，日本目前面临较大输入型通胀压力，日本央行下半年大概率适时加 息，加息幅度或将较为温和。 主要发达经济体货币政策调整，是否会影响我国货币政策？受访专家一致认为，当前我国货币政策有充 分条件坚持"以我为主"，下半年海外货币政策调整对我国货币政策自主性不会带来显著影响。 中国人民银行近日召开的2025年下半年工作会议提出，保持汇率弹性，强化 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a stable economic environment, focusing on employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, while implementing proactive fiscal and moderate monetary policies [1][2][3] - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30 highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and flexibility to promote domestic and international dual circulation, aiming to achieve the annual economic and social development goals [2][3] - The meeting also stressed the need for high-quality urban renewal and the preparation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] Group 2 - The meeting with non-Party figures on July 23 gathered opinions on the current economic situation and emphasized the importance of stabilizing employment and enterprises while boosting consumption [3][4] - The U.S.-China economic talks in Stockholm on July 28-29 resulted in an agreement to extend the suspension of certain tariffs for 90 days, highlighting the mutual benefits of stable economic relations [5][6] - The implementation plan for childcare subsidies was announced, providing annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child for those under three years old starting January 1, 2025, with financial support from the central government [7][8] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is seeking public input on guidelines for government investment funds, focusing on enhancing high-end capacity supply and avoiding investments in structurally problematic industries [9][10] - A multi-department meeting from July 24 to August 1 outlined key tasks for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need to expand domestic demand and improve market regulation [11][12] - The joint implementation plan for promoting agricultural product consumption aims to enhance supply quality and innovate distribution methods to stimulate market demand [12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View -成材价格震荡整理运行，后期关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝价预计短期区间调整，需关注宏观情绪和下游开工 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.成材 - 云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省短流程钢厂停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [4] - 2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3%，同比增长43.2% [4] - 成材昨日震荡下行，价格创新低，在供需双弱格局下市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 3.2.铝锭 - 宏观上市场关注美联储人事变动，可能使其转向更鸽派，昨日铝价区间震荡 [3] - 几内亚港口发运被叫停带动氧化铝期货价格小幅上行，8月氧化铝运行产能预计环比增加，铝土矿需求增长 [4] - 6月底至7月几内亚铝土矿发运量降低，预计8月中国自几内亚进口铝土矿总量下滑，国产铝土矿供应增量有限 [4] - 8月开始中国铝土矿库存累库幅度预计放缓，8 - 9月库存总量预计出现拐点 [4] - 7月国内电解铝产量同比增长1.05%，环比增长3.11%，8月4日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存56.4万吨，较上周四增长2.0万吨，较上周一上涨3.1万吨 [4] - 当前淡季库存累库，需求端压力限制上行空间，警惕宏观风险计价加码，关注国内政策推进 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The steel price is expected to undergo adjustments, and it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [4] Summary According to Related Content Cost and Profit - On August 5, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3312 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4 yuan/ton, the average profit was - 31 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was 70 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 7 yuan/ton [3] Real Estate Transaction Data - From July 28 to August 3, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.467 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 3.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%; the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing was 1.9959 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [3] Market Situation - Benefiting from the limit - up of coking coal on the raw material side, the finished products continued to rebound yesterday. The market continues to waver between macro anti - involution and industry fundamentals, and steel prices fluctuate repeatedly in the short term [3] Fundamental Situation - Currently, the overall supply of steel is stronger than demand. On the supply side, the daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, and steel mill profitability are all relatively high, but downstream demand is mediocre, affected by monthly real estate data and the actual impact of the rainy season on construction sites [3] Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production cuts, and downstream demand [4]

Macro Policy - The macro policy focus for the second half of the year is "sustained efforts and timely enhancements" to stabilize employment and expand domestic demand [2][3] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the importance of analyzing major changes and key indicators to prepare policies effectively [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to utilize more proactive fiscal policies, including issuing long-term special bonds and local government bonds to stimulate economic activity [3] Expanding Domestic Demand - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to economic growth in the first half of the year, highlighting its role as a primary growth driver [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to boost investment and consumption, enhance project management, and stimulate private investment [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement strategies to consolidate the industrial economy and promote consumer goods supply and demand compatibility [4] Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance is focused on improving policies to support consumption in sectors like elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism [5] - There will be a push for the healthy development of duty-free retail businesses and coordination between fiscal and financial policies to meet consumer demand [5] Employment and Livelihood - Employment remains a priority, with plans to expand job opportunities in emerging sectors such as digital economy and green economy [7] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs aims to ensure food security and stabilize employment in rural areas while achieving a grain production target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin [7] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the importance of maintaining safety in key industries and enhancing disaster prevention measures [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic focus of various Chinese government departments on economic work for the second half of the year, emphasizing macroeconomic policies, fiscal measures, and the importance of expanding domestic demand to drive economic growth. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The key phrase for macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year is "sustained efforts and timely enhancements" [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the need for solid preparations for policies focusing on stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand [2][3] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance plans to utilize a more proactive fiscal policy, increasing counter-cyclical adjustments [3] - There will be an acceleration in the issuance and use of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds to create tangible work volume [3] - The Ministry aims to improve the microeconomic cycle through various fiscal and tax policies, supporting traditional industries and emerging sectors [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to maintain reasonable credit growth [3] - The focus will be on enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy measures and improving the efficiency of fund utilization [3] Group 4: Expanding Domestic Demand - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to economic growth in the first half of the year, highlighting its role as a primary growth driver [4] - The NDRC plans to enhance investment and consumption, stimulate private investment, and support new consumption models [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement strategies to consolidate the industrial economy and promote consumer goods supply and demand compatibility [4] Group 5: Social Welfare and Employment - Ensuring social welfare is a priority for the second half of the year, with a focus on employment policies [6][7] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will implement measures to expand job opportunities in key sectors, including the digital and green economies [7] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs aims to achieve a grain production target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin, ensuring food security and stability in rural areas [7]