Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For both coking coal and coke futures contracts 2509, the short - term and medium - term views are "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways to weak". The overall view is a sideways trading approach [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Trend**: The price of coking coal has been continuously declining, and it is expected to maintain a weak sideways movement after the holiday [5]. - **Supply**: As of the week ending May 2, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 80.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million tons, with positive growth for 6 consecutive weeks and 5.7 million tons higher than the same period last year. In April, the safety supervision environment in the main domestic production areas was stable, and Shanxi's coal production remained high. Although the import volume decreased slightly year - on - year, the reduction was expected to be limited, so the supply pressure remained high [5]. - **Demand**: In the week ending May 2, the total daily average output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 114.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 million tons. Due to Sino - US trade frictions and the sluggish performance of the real estate and infrastructure sectors, the long - term demand for coking coal is still a concern [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Trend**: The main futures contract of coke maintains a low - level sideways movement, with intense multi - empty game [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Compared with coking coal, the short - term fundamentals of coke are acceptable. Although the molten iron output remains high and the short - term demand is okay, affected by overseas risks and cost pressure from coking coal, the market sentiment is not optimistic [6]. - **Macro Factors**: Since April, Sino - US trade frictions have been反复, and there is strong uncertainty about future tariff disputes. At the same time, domestic demand - boosting policies are expected to be introduced, such as the Politburo meeting on April 25 proposing more active macro - policies [6].

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 7 日星期三 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-7） | | | | 周，全球铁矿发运或季节性回升，钢厂高炉复产带动铁水产量维持高位， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 铁矿：今日一揽子金融政策支持稳市场预期，黑色夜盘受到支撑。未来几 | | | | | 全国日均铁水产量 245.42 万吨，环比增 1.07 万吨。按目前铁水走势看，5 | | | 铁矿石 | 逢高试空 | 月份将是钢材产量的峰值，同时钢材出口受关税扰动风险上升，国内需求 | | | | | 步入季节性淡季，钢厂销售压力加剧或导致利润收缩，自发性减产还是被 | | | | | 动减产，其减产的总量都对原料端形成利空。短期铁矿基本面矛盾不突出， | | | | | 盘面反弹态势，中长期来看，考虑到钢厂限产，铁水或见顶回落以及中美 | | | | | 贸易摩擦延续，铁矿 09 合约逢高试空，关注政策落地情况。 | | | | | 煤焦：进口方面，蒙古口岸通关量维持低位，叠加竞拍市场持续低迷，蒙 | | | 煤焦 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 5 月 6 日 融资资金有望回流，小盘成长风格回归 ——A 股流动性与风格跟踪月报（202505） 进入 5 月后， A 股由春节效应、春季攻势、业绩披露期等带来的季节效应结束， 市场风格的季节性效应弱化，综合 A 股盈利增速改善、中美贸易摩擦边际缓和 概率逐渐增大、外部流动性环境友好、以及融资资金可能逐渐回流，我们认为 A 股风格有望向小盘成长风格漂移。 ❑风格展望：小盘成长风格有望回归。进入 5 月后， A 股由春节效应、春季攻势、 业绩披露期等带来的季节效应结束，市场风格的季节性效应弱化，综合 A 股盈利 增速改善、中美贸易摩擦边际缓和概率逐渐增大、外部流动性环境、以及 A 股增 量资金结构变化，我们认为 A 股风格有望逐渐向小盘成长风格漂移。具体来说， 第一，2025 年一季度 A 股上市公司非金融石化企业净利润增速回升转正，从历史 来看，这比较有利于短期小盘成长风格表现。第二，目前中美双方就关税问题处 于僵持局面，但贸易摩擦最悲观的阶段已经过去，随着时间推移，中美开始磋商 的概率增大，不确定性风险会逐渐下降。第三，非农数据公布后，市场开始预期 6 月美联 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a continued downward trend for the glass market, maintaining a bearish outlook for the 09 contract [2][3] Core Viewpoints - In April, the glass market showed a downward trend due to factors such as Sino - US trade frictions, insufficient demand during the traditional peak season, and high - level inventory. The supply slightly increased, and the demand from large processing plants improved slightly, but engineering orders were still poor. The price of coal decreased, and the profit of the coal - gasification process improved. The soda ash market had a short - term expectation of reduced production, but the upward rebound space was limited. Looking ahead, the Shahe gas switch plan is a negative event, and the glass market is expected to continue to decline [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review: Weak Operation and Strengthening Spread - **Price Trends**: As of April 30, the 5mm float glass market prices were 1,250 yuan/ton in North China (-10), 1,180 yuan/ton in Central China (0), and 1,370 yuan/ton in East China (0). The glass 09 contract closed at 1,082 yuan/ton last Friday, down 72 yuan from the previous week [13][14] - **Spread Analysis**: As of April 30, the spread between soda ash and glass futures was 270 yuan/ton (+51), the basis of the glass 09 contract was 118 yuan/ton (+53), and the 09 - 01 spread was -49 yuan/ton (-10) [15] 2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Coal Price Reduction and Weak Real Estate - **Import and Export**: In March, China's float glass imports were 389,800 weight - cases (year - on - year - 11.69%), and exports were 1,597,100 weight - cases (year - on - year + 109.73%) [23] - **Profit**: The cost and profit of different glass - making processes changed. The natural - gas process had a cost of 1,606 yuan/ton (-1) and a gross profit of -236 yuan/ton (+1); the coal - gasification process had a cost of 1,168 yuan/ton (-4) and a gross profit of 82 yuan/ton (-6); the petroleum - coke process had a cost of 1,141 yuan/ton (-33) and a gross profit of 39 yuan/ton (+33) [29] - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass was 158,705 tons/day (+200) last Friday. There were 225 production lines in operation, with 2 cold - repairs and 2 ignition restarts in April [31] - **Inventory**: As of April 30, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers was 64,989,000 weight - cases (-484,000). Inventory changes varied by region, with increases in North China, South China, and Shahe factory warehouses, and decreases in Central China, East China, and Southwest China [39] - **Deep - processing**: The national average production - sales ratio of float glass was 100.48% (+0.64%), the LOW - E glass开工率 was 50.7% (+0.8%) on May 2, and the glass deep - processing order days were 9.3 days (+1.1) in mid - April [41] - **Demand - Automobile**: In March, China's automobile production was 3.006 million vehicles (month - on - month + 903,000, year - on - year + 319,000), and sales were 2.915 million vehicles (month - on - month + 786,000, year - on - year + 221,000). The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 991,000, with a penetration rate of 51.1% (month - on - month + 1.6%) [52] - **Demand - Real Estate**: In March, real - estate investment decreased year - on - year. New construction, construction, and sales data were poor. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities from April 21 to April 27 was 1.93 million square meters (month - on - month + 29%, year - on - year - 25%) [57] - **Cost - Soda Ash - Price**: As of April 30, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were 1,500 yuan/ton in North China (0), 1,450 yuan/ton in East China (-25), 1,400 yuan/ton in Central China (-25), and 1,575 yuan/ton in South China (0). The soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1,352 yuan/ton (-21), and the basis in Central China was 48 yuan/ton (+21) [65] - **Cost - Soda Ash - Profit**: By the end of the month, the ammonia - soda process cost of soda - ash enterprises was 1,521 yuan/ton (-30), with a gross profit of 35 yuan/ton (+17); the co - production process cost was 1,864 yuan/ton (-34), with a gross profit of 258 yuan/ton (+3) [66] - **Cost - Soda Ash - Inventory**: Last week, the domestic soda - ash production was 755,100 tons (week - on - week - 50), including 415,500 tons of heavy soda ash (week - on - week - 100) and 339,600 tons of light soda ash (week - on - week + 50). The warehouse receipt quantity was 3,949 (week - on - week - 341). As of April 30, the national factory - level inventory of soda ash was 1.6722 million tons (week - on - week - 20,700) [84] - **Cost - Soda Ash - Production and Sales**: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 439,400 tons (week - on - week + 57,800), and for light soda ash was 336,000 tons (week - on - week - 19,700). The production - sales ratio of soda ash was 102.69% (week - on - week + 5.11%) [86] 3. Investment Strategy - **Strategy**: The report recommends a "short 5, long 9" strategy. Considering the current situation of the glass market, including the weak demand during the off - season and the limited upward momentum of the market, this strategy is proposed [88]

目录 第一章 一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业概述 1.1 一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤定义及行业概述 1.2 一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤所属国民经济分类 1.3 一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业产品分类 1.4 一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业下游应用领域介绍 1.5 一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业产业链分析 1.5.1 一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业上游行业介绍 1.5.2 一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业下游客户解析 第二章 中国一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业最新市场分析 2.1 中国一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业主要上游行业发展现状 2.2 中国一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业主要下游应用领域发展现状 2.3 中国一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业当前所处发展周期 2.4 中国一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业相关政策支持 2.5 "碳中和"目标对中国一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业的影响 第三章 中国一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业发展现状 3.1 中国一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业市场规模 3.2 中国一次性和可重复使用的手术 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：4 月期间国内主产区安监环境平稳，山西煤炭产量维持高位，钢联统计的 523 家炼焦煤 矿精煤产量月内持续回升，而进口量虽同比或有小幅下滑，但减量预计有限，焦煤供应压力依然居 高不下。此外，中美贸易摩擦压制黑色金属终端产品出口，叠加地产、基建表现低迷，内需支撑有 限，焦煤中长期需求担忧仍存。供需数据方面，根据钢联统计，截至 5 月 2 日当周，全国 523 家炼 焦煤矿精煤日均产量 80.4 万吨，周环比增 0.7 万吨，连续第 6 周录得正增长，较去年同期产量偏 高 5.7 万吨。进口方面，4 月 21 至 26 日，甘其毛都口岸累计通关车数 3877 车，周环比减少 2329 车。需求方面，5 月 2 日当周，焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量合计 114.41 万吨，周环比增加 0.09 万 吨。综上，焦煤价格持续下挫，且其供应宽松局面并未扭转，基本面整体依然偏空，叠加当前宏观 向上驱 ...

固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 两轮贸易摩擦，信用债投资复盘与展望 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2017 年 8 月至 2020 年 1 月，信用债市场在中美贸易摩擦与政策对冲交织下经历四阶段演变： 第一阶段（2017.8-2018.6）利率曲线短端受益定向降准下行；第二阶段（2018.7-2018.11）政 策宽松推动短端利率下行，但财政发力与 CPI 反弹抑制长端，行业融资显著分化；第三阶段 （2018.12-2019.4）宽信用政策与贸易摩擦缓和驱动利率债短暂走牛；第四阶段（2019.5- 2020.1）"包商银行事件"引发流动性分层，信用债内部分化加剧，城投借新还旧政策驱动融资 放量，而民企利差持续走阔。整体呈现"利率债避险强化、信用债风险定价重构"格局。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 %% %% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant reduction of China's crude oil imports from the U.S. by 90% due to escalating trade tensions, leading to an unprecedented increase in imports from Canada [1][5] - The expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX) has facilitated the flow of Alberta's oil sands crude to China, with imports reaching a record 7.3 million barrels in March, expected to rise further in April [1] - The trade war has prompted China to diversify its oil import sources, with a notable shift towards Middle Eastern and other alternative crude oils, as the economic viability of U.S. crude has diminished due to tariffs [3][5] Group 2 - China's crude oil import volume is projected to decline by 1.9% in 2024, with a diversified import structure increasingly focusing on the Middle East and Europe, while reducing reliance on North America [5] - The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. has significantly increased the cost of American crude oil, weakening its competitiveness in the Chinese market [5] - The long-term impact of U.S. tariffs is expected to negatively affect global economic conditions and crude oil demand, potentially leading to a decrease in international oil prices [7]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in April 2025 has declined compared to the previous month and the past five-year average, indicating a weakening manufacturing sector under external pressures, particularly from trade tensions with the US [1][3][4] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is reported at 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and 1.3 percentage points lower than the five-year average, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to external trade pressures [2][3] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.8%, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating a decline in production levels [4] - The new export orders index is at 44.7%, significantly lower than the five-year average by 4.8 percentage points, primarily due to reduced exports to the US [4][5] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing sectors, only 5 have PMIs above the threshold, with 4 sectors showing a month-on-month increase, including non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, which rose by 9.1 percentage points [5] - The gap between PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises is narrowing, with large enterprises experiencing a more significant decline [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is at 50.4%, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating weaker domestic demand [6] - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, and the construction sector PMI is at 51.9%, both reflecting a decline compared to historical averages [6] Policy Response - The Central Political Bureau meeting in April outlined measures to stabilize the economy, including accelerating existing policy implementation, introducing new policies, and preparing contingency plans [7] - Specific actions include expediting the issuance of local government bonds and establishing new financial tools to support infrastructure and industrial investments [7] Market Outlook - Economic fundamentals are expected to support the bond market, with anticipated monetary easing leading to a potential decline in interest rates for medium and long-term bonds [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. will not lift tariffs on China unless substantial concessions are made by China, which China firmly denies as negotiations have not occurred [1][3] - China has set its bottom line: the U.S. must remove all tariffs and cease its extreme pressure tactics to establish a respectful and mutually beneficial dialogue [3] - The U.S. soybean exports to China reached $12.84 billion last year, highlighting the importance of this trade relationship for U.S. farmers [3] Group 2 - Japan is exploring increasing imports of U.S. corn and soybeans as part of its tariff negotiations with the U.S., but this will not compensate for the loss of the Chinese market [5] - In 2024, Japan's soybean imports are projected to be 3.17 million tons, with 65.7% sourced from the U.S., indicating limited room for increased imports [5] - China's strategy of diversifying its imports, such as turning to South America for soybeans, demonstrates its resilience against U.S. tariffs [8]