2025 年 05 月 22 日 铜：避险情绪升温，限制价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei015111@gtjas.com 微观方面，据媒体报道，在美国盐湖城，堆积了数周之久的废铜终于开始清空，这主要得益于中美贸易 谈判取得进展。（SMM） 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,100 | 0.72% | 77770 | -0.42% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,487 | -0.71% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 71,129 | 4,432 | 163,320 | -2,768 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,682 | 811 | 285,000 | -4,845 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley has raised China's GDP growth forecast for the year from 4.1% to 4.8%, assuming current tariff levels remain until the end of the year [2][3] - The contribution of exports to China's economy is expected to decline, while consumption and investment contributions are anticipated to rise, particularly due to policy support [2][3] - The People's Bank of China may continue to lower interest rates and reserve requirements, with one to two rate cuts expected this year [3] Group 2: Market Performance - Hong Kong's stock market has outperformed other Asian markets this year, with the Hang Seng Index showing a year-to-date increase of nearly 20% [4][5] - The MSCI China Index, which has a high concentration of Chinese internet giants, has seen earnings expectations raised from 14% to 16% [4][5] - The technology and healthcare sectors are viewed as high-growth areas, with international investors showing significant interest in Chinese internet companies due to their lower valuations compared to U.S. tech giants [5] Group 3: Trade Relations - The current trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are seen as a significant source of uncertainty, with potential impacts on international investment in China [1][5] - If the trade negotiation outlook improves, more international funds may be willing to invest in the Chinese market [1][5]

| I C E H Ho | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 日博策略参 | | | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | 行业板块 趋势研判 品种 | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | 随着市场对关税冲击的波动与政策护盘动能趋于衰减,加上当前 | | 股指 震荡 | | 反弹已至区间上沿,在缺乏增量催化因素的背景下,短期或转入 | | | | 震荡整固阶段,策略上、短线多单考虑冲高止盈, 警惕调整风险 | | 宏观金融 震荡 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 国债 | | 空间。 | | 賣金 農汤 | | 多空交织，短期金价或盘整震荡;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | 白银 震荡 | C B | 跟随黄金宽幅震荡, 但中期上方空间有限。 | | 看空 第四 | | 近期国内外宏观数据偏弱压制市场风险偏好,叠加铜下游需求有 | | | | 所转弱,铜价短期偏弱运行。 | | 農汤 | | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,但随着铝价走高,上行空间 | | | | 受限,预计近期震荡运行。 | | 氢化 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the fluctuations in gold prices, particularly the critical resistance level at $3250-$3252, which has been tested multiple times, indicating a significant point for market sentiment [1][3][5] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the U.S. involvement, are influencing market dynamics, with potential sanctions looming if negotiations fail [1][2] - The narrative suggests that many investors are misinterpreting the underlying logic of gold's price movements, leading to panic selling, while the long-term perspective remains optimistic [2] Group 2 - Recent trading activity shows that after breaking the $3250-$3252 resistance, gold prices surged, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards bullishness [3][5] - The analysis highlights the importance of setting stop-loss orders during volatile trading periods, as failure to do so can lead to significant losses when market trends shift [3] - Future price targets for gold are set at $3340-$3450, with a potential challenge of the $3400 mark, suggesting a bullish outlook if current trends continue [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive impact of the recent US-China trade negotiations, which resulted in significant tariff reductions, exceeding investor expectations. This has shifted market focus towards domestic economic conditions and short-term market dynamics [1] - The market has been recovering from previous declines since mid-April, with some broad indices surpassing early April levels, indicating a strong recovery logic reflected in the market [1] - The trading volume in the two markets has been shrinking, with daily trading around 1 trillion yuan, indicating a continuous decrease in market activity. Despite this, there has been a predominance of rising stocks, particularly in the real estate and defense industries [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently experiencing oscillation with resistance above and support below. It has rebounded since mid-April and has filled the gap from April 7, but faces pressure from the first quarter high and last year's fourth quarter trading volume concentration [2] - The major medium to long-term moving averages continue to provide significant technical support, suggesting a sustained oscillating market mindset [2]

行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 20 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员 ...

2025 年 05 月 20 日 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei015111@gtjas.com 铜：内外库存下降，支撑价格 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 77,820 | -0.41% | 78160 | 0.44% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,516 | 0.81% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 82,415 | 10,104 | 171,235 | -9,255 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 18,984 | 11,374 | 294,000 | 84 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 61,913 | -1,334 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 174,325 | -5,050 | 38.75% | -1.33% | ...

中美谈判超预期，关注后续进程 ——可转债周报 20250519 2025 年 5 月 12 日，中美双方发表《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，宣布在 未来 90 天内暂停征收部分加征关税，会谈结果超出市场普遍预期。从结果上 来看： 债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 中美关税冲突缓和，权益市场小幅回暖。本轮会谈大幅降低双边关税，中美贸 易冲突的扰动有所缓和，且在结果超预期的助力下权益市场情绪显著提振，恒 生指数 5 月 12 日涨幅 2.98%，万得全 A 上涨 1.29%，中证转债指数微涨 0.60%。 分板块来看，由于关税调降导致中国制造商成本快速下降以及风偏修复，前期 处于压力的制造及科技板块率先抬升，对应转债均价抬升但弹性较权益偏弱， 估值被动压缩，而医药医疗及周期板块则显得相对平淡。 谨慎情绪仍在，或需继续关注谈判进程。5 月 13 日市场表现出一定回调，这 一角度来看短期谨慎情绪或仍未完全消散，本轮贸易冲突的缓和不难使人联想 到 2019 年。从参考时点来看，存在两种不同假设，类比年初的"协议停战" 还是年底的第一阶段经贸协议，或代表两类完全相反的风险偏好，在特朗普政 策反复的假设下后续 ...

海外策略：境外市场风险偏好回暖 美国经济稳步扩张，失业率保持低位，通胀继续软化但仍然面对关税压力，市场对美联储降息的预期持续收 敛。 继Q1私人部门（剔除库存、政府购买、净出口）实际GDP环比年化增速录得3%之后，亚特兰大联储GDPNOW 模型指向Q2美国经济保持稳步扩张态势，实际GDP环比年化增速达到2.5%；4月失业率保持在4.2%，连续一年 于4.0-4.2%区间低位震荡，最新周频首次申领失业金人数稳定在22.9万，同样未见上行趋势；4月美国CPI通胀 超预期回落至2.3%，但未来仍然面临关税压力，下半年读数可能稳定在3%附近。 最新形势指向"胀"的压力仍然远大于"滞"，市场对美联储降息的预期持续收敛，从此前的峰值5次（约125bp） 降至当前的2次（约50bp），与我们预期相符，我们基本认可当前市场对美联储降息的判断。 本周由于中美贸易谈判取得积极成果，境外市场风险偏好回暖，美债利率小幅反弹，美元先涨后跌，人民币升 值，黄金快速回落。 美股方面，上周美股上涨，主要受到中美贸易紧张局势缓解以及通胀数据表现温和的积极影响。中美经贸会谈 取得积极成果，将对美股市场产生显著的正面推动作用，将大幅缓解市场此前对 ...

Group 1: European Market Focus - The Eurozone manufacturing readings show marginal recovery, with Germany's Q1 GDP growth at 0.2%, exceeding market expectations of 0.1% [10][14] - Airbus and Deutsche Telekom are highlighted as key stocks, with Airbus maintaining its delivery expectations despite tariff concerns [22][23] - The STOXX Europe Aerospace and Defense ETF is recommended for investment, focusing on sectors with strong local orientation [26] Group 2: Indonesian Market Focus - Indonesia's Q1 GDP growth slowed to 4.87%, with significant pressure on capital expenditure, but government spending is expected to increase in the second half of the year [34][42] - The iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF is suggested as a potential investment, reflecting the low valuation of the Indonesian stock market [29][43] - The central bank may consider a rate cut to stimulate the economy, with current inflation trends supporting this move [35][37] Group 3: Impact of US-China Tariff War - The US-China trade negotiations are summarized as a three-step process, with significant tariff reductions expected, bringing US tariffs on China down to approximately 44% [51] - The report indicates that the visibility of trade policies is improving, which is favorable for risk assets like US stocks [53] - The report suggests a cautious approach to US bonds, as the market may not fully account for inflation concerns [53]