Core Insights - The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 53,732 billion yuan from January to September, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [1][4][5] - In September, profits surged by 21.6%, with the equipment manufacturing sector contributing significantly to this growth [1][7] - High-tech manufacturing also showed robust performance, with a profit growth rate of 26.8% in September, indicating its role as a key driver for high-quality industrial development [1][8] Profit Growth Analysis - The profit growth in September was influenced by a low base from the previous year, as September 2022 recorded the lowest monthly profit of the year [2][5] - The cumulative profit growth of 3.2% for the first nine months is the highest since August of the previous year, reflecting a recovery trend [5][6] - The average profit margin for industrial enterprises improved slightly to 5.26%, up by 0.04 percentage points year-on-year [6] Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector's profit increased by 25.6% in September, contributing 10.5 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises for that month [1][9] - Among 41 industrial categories, 23 reported year-on-year profit growth, with 30 industries showing profit increases in September [7][8] - Specific sectors such as power generation and supply, non-ferrous metal processing, and food processing also reported significant profit increases [8] Company Type Performance - State-owned enterprises reported a slight profit decline of 0.3%, while private and foreign-invested enterprises showed stronger growth rates of 5.1% and 4.9%, respectively [9] - The overall profit growth reflects a recovery in market expectations and operational vitality, particularly among private and foreign enterprises [9]

Profit Growth - In September 2025, industrial enterprises' profits increased by 21.6% year-on-year, up from 20.4% in August 2025[4] - Cumulative profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to September 2025 was +3.2%, compared to +0.9% for January to August 2025[2] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in September 2025 was 5.46%, an increase of 0.70 percentage points year-on-year[5] Revenue and Price Trends - Cumulative revenue growth for industrial enterprises from January to September 2025 was +2.4%, slightly up from +2.3% for January to August 2025[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year decline narrowed from -2.9% in August to -2.3% in September 2025[5] - The industrial added value growth rate in September 2025 rose to +6.5%, up from +5.2% in August 2025[5] Sector Performance - The profit margin for the manufacturing sector increased to 4.58% in the first nine months of 2025, compared to 4.36% in the same period last year[12] - The profit growth rate for raw materials manufacturing surged to +111.7% in September 2025, up from +101.1% in August 2025[19] - The profit growth rate for consumer goods manufacturing slowed to +4.8% in September 2025, down from +26.8% in August 2025[21] Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue supporting profit recovery in the manufacturing sector, although demand remains weak[34] - The profit distribution is increasingly favoring midstream and upstream industries, while downstream consumer manufacturing is experiencing profit growth slowdown[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance shows significant improvement year-on-year, with revenue reaching 4.176 billion yuan, up 4.34% year-on-year, and a notable recovery in net profit for Q3, which was 0.26 billion yuan compared to negative figures in the same period last year [1][2] - The domestic refractory materials business continues to face pressure, leading to a downward adjustment in net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.9 billion, 3.5 billion, and 5.5 billion yuan respectively [1][2] - The report expresses optimism about the recovery of the refractory materials sector due to the gradual alleviation of intense price competition, supported by the company's overseas operations and the growth of its wet process business [3] Financial Data Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's comprehensive gross margin was 17.6%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s net profit margin for the same period was 2.28%, down 0.68 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by increased credit impairment losses [2] - The financial forecast indicates a projected revenue of 5.739 billion yuan for 2025, with an expected growth rate of 10.53% [5][12] Business Outlook - The report highlights the potential for profit elasticity from the wet process business, with a significant agreement with a client for the procurement of 500,000 tons of sedimentation agents by the end of 2028 [3] - The company is expected to enhance its production capacity through upgrades and modifications to its production lines, which will contribute to expanding its profit margins [3]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is experiencing a reversal in supply-demand dynamics, with the bottom of the cycle confirmed in Q2 2025, leading to an upward trend in coal prices due to supply constraints and increasing demand [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The energy ETF (159930) has seen significant inflows, with a net inflow of 113 million yuan over the past 10 days, indicating strong investor interest in the energy sector [4]. - The ETF's component stocks have shown mixed performance, with notable gains in coal companies like China Coal Energy, while others like Shanxi Coking Coal have experienced declines [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - National coal production has declined for three consecutive months since July, influenced by policies aimed at curbing overproduction, which is expected to continue impacting supply [3][5]. - Electricity consumption growth has rebounded to 4.6% in August and September, suggesting a potential increase in demand as winter approaches [3]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policies have led to stricter enforcement against overproduction, which is a key factor supporting the recent rise in coal prices [3][5]. - Ongoing safety inspections and regulatory measures are expected to further constrain coal production, reinforcing the upward price trajectory [3]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, making it an attractive investment option amid a recovering macroeconomic environment [5]. - The energy sector, particularly coal and oil, offers high dividend yields, with coal stocks showing a yield of approximately 4.69% [6].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China is expected to construct and renovate over 700,000 kilometers of underground pipelines, with new investment needs exceeding 5 trillion yuan. This initiative is a key focus for the government and is expected to significantly boost investment and consumption, creating substantial domestic demand opportunities. Recommended companies to watch include China Liansu, Qinglong Pipeline, and Donghong Co [4] - In the cement sector, the demand recovery is slow, with a year-on-year decline of 8.6% in cement production in August 2025, totaling 154 million tons. The industry is currently in a low demand and price phase, but capacity utilization is expected to improve due to policies limiting overproduction. Companies to focus on include Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [5][10] - The glass industry is experiencing a downward trend in demand due to the real estate sector's impact, with prices showing signs of weakening post-holiday. The report suggests that while environmental regulations may not lead to a drastic reduction in capacity, they will increase costs and accelerate industry adjustments. Key players to monitor include Qibin Group [5][15] - The fiberglass sector is seeing a positive trend driven by demand from the AI industry, with expectations for explosive growth in low-dielectric products. Companies like China Jushi and China National Building Material are highlighted as potential beneficiaries [5] - The consumer building materials sector has reached a profitability bottom, with no further price declines expected. The report anticipates a recovery in profitability for leading companies in the second half of the year, with firms like Oriental Yuhong and Sanke Tree recommended for attention [5] Summary by Sections Cement - The cement market is gradually entering its peak season, but overall demand recovery is slow. The construction sector's demand has not fully materialized due to weather disruptions and the pace of demand release. The report notes that the industry is currently at a low point in both demand and prices [10] - In August 2025, cement production was 154 million tons, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year decline [10] Glass - The glass industry is facing weak demand post-holiday, with significant inventory increases affecting price stability. The report indicates that the supply-demand imbalance persists, and future performance will depend on policy changes and downstream inventory replenishment [15] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is benefiting from the AI industry's growth, with expectations for a significant increase in demand and prices for low-dielectric products. The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the industry [5] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with leading companies actively pursuing price increases. The report suggests that the sector has reached a profitability bottom, and improvements are anticipated in the latter half of the year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by favorable policies and external factors, particularly in the technology sector, with significant capital inflow into the Hang Seng Tech ETF [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index has shown strong performance, with the Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) attracting 2.333 billion yuan in capital over 12 trading days from October 9 to October 24, 2025, leading to a total share count exceeding 51 billion, marking a 55% increase year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index currently has a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 23.28, which is lower than that of major tech indices in A-shares and US markets, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [2] Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized "high-level technological self-reliance," strengthening long-term policy expectations for the tech sector [1] - Recent US-China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur have led to constructive discussions on key economic issues, signaling a potential easing of tensions and improving market risk appetite [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Hang Seng Tech ETF is seen as a crucial tool for investors looking to capitalize on core assets in the Hong Kong tech sector, benefiting from its large scale, good liquidity, and low fees [2] - The management of the Hang Seng Tech ETF, Huatai-PB Fund, has extensive experience in ETF operations, having launched several leading ETFs in the market [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [8] Core Insights - The report discusses the revisions made to the "Steel Industry Capacity Replacement Implementation Measures" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, comparing the 2021 version with the 2025 draft [2][4][5] - The demand for steel continues to improve, with a slight year-on-year decrease in apparent consumption of major steel products by 1.18% and a month-on-month increase of 2.57% [4] - The average daily pig iron output of sample steel enterprises has decreased slightly to 2.399 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.15% and a month-on-month increase of 1.29% in total steel production [4][5] - Total steel inventory has decreased by 1.75% week-on-week, while year-on-year it has increased by 22.16% [5] Summary by Sections Capacity Replacement Measures - The 2025 draft maintains the definition of "compliant capacity" as in 2021, but introduces stricter regulations on capacity replacement, particularly regarding "zombie capacity" [12] - New provisions allow for capacity replacement between different enterprises for two years after the implementation of the 2025 measures, after which such exchanges will be prohibited [12] - The replacement ratio for iron and steel capacity in 2025 is set at no less than 1.5:1 across provinces, expanding the scope compared to the 2021 measures [12] Market Dynamics - The report highlights the broad demand for underground pipeline networks, with an expected investment exceeding 5 trillion yuan, benefiting pipe-related companies [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to boost market expectations, with increased construction intensity towards the end of the year likely to enhance demand for building materials [4] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four main investment lines: 1. Companies benefiting from the release of new capacities in iron ore and coke, such as Nanjing Steel and Baosteel [29] 2. Companies with low market capitalization relative to their earnings, such as New Steel and Fangda Special Steel [29] 3. Mergers and acquisitions under the state-owned enterprise reform, which may enhance asset quality and valuation [31] 4. High-quality processing leaders and resource companies, particularly in the context of macroeconomic recovery expectations [31]

Group 1 - Citic Securities believes that the style switch has essentially ended, indicating a return to performance-driven structural markets, supported by three characteristics: rapid completion of position adjustments by active funds, a shift in market understanding of trade disputes, and a recovery of low-volatility dividend-related sectors within three weeks [1] - The recent phase of Sino-US negotiations has yielded results, and with the conclusion of Q3 reports, the focus should be on identifying sectors with potential for sustained profit growth next year [1] - Two emerging trends are noted: the safety of industrial chains, where Chinese manufacturing firms may benefit from their competitive edge and high costs of overseas capacity reset, and the expansion of AI from cloud to edge, indicating a clear trend towards personalized AI applications, although market activation requires more product catalysts [1] Group 2 - Citic Jiantou observes a cooling in market sentiment since October, with a slowdown in incremental capital inflow, yet overall momentum remains stable, and recent days have shown signs of stabilization [2] - The growth sector has experienced a decline of over 10%, and nearly half of the market has seen reduced trading volumes, suggesting limited short-term adjustment space [2] - The end of October is anticipated to be a critical juncture for market trends, with expectations of market consolidation due to uncertainties in Sino-US negotiations, while a potential upward breakout is likely if no further negative factors arise post-negotiation [2]

Report Summary Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, industrial silicon prices stabilized and rebounded. The Fourth Plenary Session's "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasized green transformation, boosting domestic macro expectations. The polysilicon futures market also lifted market confidence. Supply remained stable with Xinjiang's increased production offset by reduced output in Sichuan and Yunnan. Demand from the polysilicon market fluctuated, silicon wafer production exceeded expectations, and the demand for 210RN in the medium and low-efficiency component market remained strong. Component inventory is expected to decrease slightly in November. Technically, the price is expected to remain strong in the short term [2][6][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The industrial silicon futures price increased by 5.81% to 8920 yuan/ton from November 17th to November 24th. The prices of various spot grades remained unchanged, while the prices of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon dense materials decreased by 1.77% and 5.88% respectively. The industrial silicon social inventory remained at 510,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro aspect**: The "15th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for realizing Chinese modernization and promoting high - quality development [7]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: As of October 24th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 98,500 tons, a 1.1% week - on - week and 2.5% year - on - year increase. The overall furnace - opening rate dropped to 40%. The polysilicon market's sentiment fluctuated, silicon wafer production exceeded expectations, and the demand for 210RN was strong. Component inventory is expected to drop to about 30GW in November, and the photovoltaic industry is expected to enter a new supply - demand balance cycle [8]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of October 24th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 559,000 tons, a 3,000 - ton week - on - week decrease. The exchange's registered warehouse receipts decreased to 48,327 lots, equivalent to 242,000 tons [9]. Industry News - **South Korea's exports**: Despite the impact of US tariffs and holiday factors, South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of October increased. Semiconductor exports increased by 20.2%, while automobile exports decreased by 25%. The negotiation on the South Korea - US trade agreement is at a standstill, increasing the uncertainty of South Korea's future exports to the US [11]. - **Photovoltaic power station**: Under Document No. 136, the development rules of the photovoltaic industry have changed. The tendering scale of photovoltaic power station EPC decreased in the third quarter, but the awarding scale increased quarter - on - quarter. Chinese enterprises such as PowerChina and EnergyChina won large - scale overseas projects, and Zhengtai Energy won a 720MW distributed photovoltaic project [12]. Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts on industrial silicon production, exports, inventory, and the prices of related products, providing data support for the analysis [14][20][21]

上周玻璃期货窄幅震荡下行，主力合约FG2601收盘较前一周下跌0.27%报1092元/吨。 现货方面，河北沙河白玻大板报价1052元/吨，较前一周下跌3.31%。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃周报 2025.10.20-10.24 供给方面，玻璃现货价格下跌，行业冷修高位，上周全国浮法玻璃生产线在产226 条，开工率76.35%，日熔量16.13万吨，环比持平，供给低位企稳回升。需求方面，终 端地产复苏乏力，全国样本企业订单整体环比下滑，加工厂订单及资金双重压力下操作 艰难，拿货以刚需为主；截止10月23日，全国浮法玻璃企业库存6661.30万重量箱，较 前一周增加3.64%，库存处于同期历史偏高位置。综合来看，玻璃基本面供稳需弱，短 期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 每周观点 ...