1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2025, the bond market was volatile, with the short - end adjusting first under tight funding and then the long - end, resulting in a bear - flattening curve at the end of the quarter. Bond funds reduced duration and leverage. Looking ahead to Q2 2025, the fund liability side may enter a recovery phase, and scale is expected to rebound. There may be opportunities in short - term bonds if liquidity is abundant, and potential trading opportunities in the adjustment of ultra - long - term bonds. 5 - 10 - year varieties may have long - position opportunities [1][3][4][5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025Q1 Bond - type Fund Overview - **Market Trends**: In Q1 2025, the bond market was mainly traded around expectations of loose money, tight - balanced funding, the "stock - bond seesaw", and institutional behavior. In January, bond yields first declined and then rose; in February, there was an adjustment; in March, it first adjusted and then recovered [9][10]. - **Fund Market Performance**: The number of bond funds increased slightly, while the asset net value returned to the level before Q2 2024. The number of passive index - type funds increased by 4.14%. Short - term bond funds' scale decreased significantly, while mixed - type bond funds turned to positive growth [12]. - **Asset Net Value Growth Rate**: The quarter - on - quarter growth rates of medium - and long - term pure bonds, short - term pure bonds, mixed (primary), mixed (secondary), passive index, enhanced index, and convertible bond funds were - 4.9%, - 20%, + 4%, + 13%, - 7%, + 8%, + 4% respectively [14]. - **Scale Distribution**: 60% of bond funds had an asset net value of less than 2 billion yuan. The number of bond funds with a scale of less than 1 billion yuan increased, mainly medium - and long - term bond funds. The number of funds with a scale of over 5 billion yuan decreased significantly, especially those over 10 billion yuan [16]. - **Holding Situation**: Medium - and long - term pure bond funds mainly held policy - financial bonds, followed by non - policy - financial bonds and medium - term notes. Short - term bond funds held more medium - term notes and short - term financing bills. Different types of funds had different trends in holding various bonds [20][21]. - **Duration and Leverage**: Due to the tight - balanced funding and policy concerns about long - term bond risks, medium - and long - term and short - term bond funds reduced their average duration by 0.15 and 0.13 years respectively. Funds continued to reduce leverage due to the inverted repo rate and bond market rate [22] 3.2 2025Q1 Pure Bond Fund Holding Analysis 3.2.1 Pure Bond Fund Holding Overview - **Medium - and Long - Term Pure Bond Funds**: The holding structure changed little. The market value of medium - term notes, treasury bonds, and corporate bonds increased slightly, while the proportion of policy - financial bonds and certificates of deposit decreased. The current main holdings of policy - financial bonds, non - policy - financial bonds, and medium - term notes accounted for 30.9%, 15.4%, and 10.3% respectively [27]. - **Short - Term Pure Bond Funds**: The proportion of holding credit bonds increased slightly. The proportion of short - term financing bills increased significantly, while the proportion of financial bonds, medium - term notes, and certificates of deposit decreased [27]. - **Scale and Holding Relationship**: Larger medium - and long - term bond funds held a lower proportion of credit bonds and a higher proportion of policy - financial bonds. Short - term bond funds with an asset net value of over 300 million yuan held a higher proportion of policy - financial bonds and a lower proportion of credit bonds [29] 3.2.2 Top Five Holdings Analysis - **Coupon Distribution**: In medium - and long - term bond funds, the market value proportion of heavy - holding bonds with a coupon of 1 - 2% continued to increase, while the proportion of those with a coupon of over 3% decreased. In short - term bond funds, the proportion of heavy - holding bonds with a coupon of 1 - 2% was relatively high and increased significantly in the past two quarters [35]. - **Bond Type and Market Value**: Medium - and long - term bond funds still mainly held policy - financial bonds, with a slight decline in holding scale but a significant increase in the market value of non - policy - financial bonds, credit bonds, and local government bonds. Short - term bond funds also mainly held policy - financial bonds, with a decline in holding scale but a significant increase in the market value of credit bonds to a two - year high [40][42]. - **Sub - categories of Bonds** - **Financial Bonds (Excluding Policy - Financial Bonds)**: Medium - and long - term bond funds mainly held commercial bank ordinary bonds, with a slight increase in the market value of ordinary and perpetual bonds. Short - term bond funds mainly held commercial bank perpetual and ordinary bonds, with a significant decline in holding scale [45]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: Both medium - and long - term and short - term bond funds increased their holdings of Zhejiang urban investment bonds, showing a credit - sinking trend, mainly increasing their holdings of AA+ and below urban investment bonds [54][57]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The industry holdings of medium - and long - term and short - term bond funds were differentiated. Medium - and long - term bond funds continued to hold a large amount of non - bank finance but with a slight decline in scale. Short - term bond funds' heavy - holding industries changed greatly, with a decline in the market value of non - bank finance [61]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The overall fundamental contradictions of iron ore are not significant. With the easing of overseas trade frictions and market expectations for stimulus policies, iron ore is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to take short - term long positions with a light position [2]. - Economic downward pressure still supports gold. The downside space of gold is limited, and it is advisable to maintain a slightly bullish view on gold's medium - term high - level fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [2]. - The supply of coking coal remains relatively stable, and demand is high. The market expects coke prices to continue rising, but terminal inventories are low. Short - term coking coal prices are expected to fluctuate [4]. - The cost of steel provides some support, but the lack of sustained demand restricts the rebound of steel prices. With external uncertainties, steel prices may fluctuate upward in the short term [4]. - The supply and demand of live pigs are in a continuous game. Short - term prices are adjusted, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips. In the medium - to - long term, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. - The decline of the external market has stopped and rebounded, and the increase in purchases supports the palm oil market. However, the downstream demand is weak, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. High - selling and low - buying strategies are recommended [5]. - The auction of soybeans by protein factories is active, and the reduction of market surplus grains boosts market confidence. However, auctions may curb rapid price increases in the short term. Soybean prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [6]. - The marginal loosening of the capital side is beneficial to the bond market, but the market still has a wait - and - see attitude towards the fundamentals. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [8]. - Trump's remarks on reducing tariffs on Chinese goods boost risk assets, but the fundamentals of silver are bearish. Before the Fed cuts interest rates, silver is unlikely to have a trending market [8]. - Concerns about the implementation of compensatory production cuts by OPEC + have led to a decline in crude oil prices. Short - term trading is recommended [9]. - The demand for PTA is under pressure, and it follows the fluctuations of crude oil. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - The international raw material prices of natural rubber have fallen, and the tire start - up rate has declined. The market support is weak, and it is expected to continue the weak consolidation trend [10]. - The cost of methanol is stable, and the domestic methanol start - up is expected to remain high. The downstream demand is decreasing, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11][12]. - The downstream demand for soda ash is tepid, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - The supply of caustic soda is abundant, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13]. Summaries by Variety Iron Ore - From April 14 - 20, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,218.8 million tons, a decrease of 26.3 million tons from the previous period. The inventory is slightly lower than the average level since the beginning of the year [2]. Gold - On April 23, local time, the Fed's "Beige Book" showed that economic activity has hardly changed, but there is widespread uncertainty in international trade policies, and the prospects in multiple regions have significantly deteriorated [2]. Coking Coal - This week, the operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants in the country was 63.01%, an increase of 1.11% from the previous period; the daily average output was 53.44 million tons, a decrease of 1.34 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 271.33 million tons, a decrease of 2.58 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 181.68 million tons, an increase of 0.35 million tons [4]. Rebar - On April 23, the domestic steel market fluctuated strongly. The ex - factory price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 50 to 2,990 yuan/ton. One steel mill raised the ex - factory price of construction steel by 20 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3,323 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. Live Pigs - On April 23, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 118.47, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 119.43. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.99 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4% from the previous day; the price of eggs was 8.34 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1% from the previous day [5]. Palm Oil - From July 1, 2024, to April 20, 2025, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 period were 2.3 million tons, compared with 2.87 million tons in the same period of the previous year. China and India's demand for palm oil may increase due to its continuous discount compared with soybean oil [5]. Soybeans - As of the end of the 16th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 4.251 million tons, an increase of 625,000 tons from the previous week. The coastal inventory was 3.768 million tons, an increase of 584,000 tons from the previous week [6]. Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties declined collectively. The overnight variety declined by 8.3 BP to 1.626%; the 7 - day variety declined by 2.6 BP to 1.644%; the 14 - day variety declined by 2.8 BP to 1.772%; the 1 - month variety declined by 0.5 BP to 1.749% [7][8]. Silver - Trump said that the current tariffs on Chinese goods in the US are too high and are expected to be significantly reduced. He also said that he has no intention of firing the Fed Chairman [8]. Crude Oil - The EIA report showed that in the week ending April 18, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US was 244,000 barrels, the gasoline inventory was - 4.476 million barrels, the domestic crude oil production decreased by 200 barrels to 23.46 million barrels per day, and the EIA crude oil production implied demand data was 19.01 million barrels per day. Kazakhstan will prioritize national interests in determining oil production levels [9]. PTA - In the week of April 22, the PTA load decreased to 75.4%; the polyester load increased slightly to 93.8%, and the increase in the bottle - chip load made up for the reduction in the production of filament and staple fiber [9]. Rubber - Thailand is gradually transitioning to the tapping season, and production is expected to increase significantly in mid - May. Vietnam's production areas are waiting for precipitation and may start tapping at the end of April. In Hainan, raw material prices have fallen, and private factories have resumed purchasing rubber, with an increase in glue output. In March, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.56, a slight decrease of 3.1% from the previous month, basically the same as the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative output of rubber tires in China was 283 million, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.4%. The total export volume of Chinese rubber tires was 2.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [10]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2,418 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton. The methanol operating rate was 83.37%, a weekly decrease of 0.49%. A 250,000 - ton/year methanol plant of Yankuang Guojiao was under maintenance for about a week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate was 72.26%, a weekly decrease of 2.25%. The sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 463,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 122,400 tons; the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 309,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 260 tons; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 302,700 tons, a weekly increase of 28,300 tons [11]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash in the country was 1,413 yuan/ton, showing a slow downward trend. The soda ash operating rate was 88.9%, an increase of 1%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.7113 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The operating rate of float glass was 75.42%, unchanged from the previous week. The average price of float glass in the country was 1,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises in the country was 65.078 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19% [12]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The prices of liquid caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong both decreased, and the chlor - alkali profit was 302 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 82.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. The chlor - alkali plant of Anhui Huasu is expected to resume production on April 26. The weekly inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 420,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 10.83%. The weekly operating rate of downstream alumina was 80%, a decrease of 2%; the weekly operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 78.2%, a decrease of 5.39% [13].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评—黄金】IMF首席经济学家古睿斯，美元的走软具 有相当广泛的基础。评：近期美元的持续下行，使得市场对黄 金的看涨动能增加，但是黄金在美国关税政策带来的经济下行 及通胀上升的预期已经交易的较为充分，滞胀逻辑交易较为充 分，不可过分看多，黄金短期上方空间有限，美联储降息前注 意把控节奏，关注俄乌冲突等地缘因素。 投资咨询中心 2025年04月23日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 姓名：丛燕飞 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015666 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 2020 年 11月18 【短评-原油】IMF将2025年全 ...

回头看，为何会出现股债"跷跷板"？ 从历史数据来看，股债之间的关系常常像"跷跷板"一样，呈现出涨跌反向关系。 春节以来，股债两市走势分化，"股债跷跷板"效应再度成为投资者热议的话题。 股市迎来"小阳春"：在DeepSeek的带动下，A股市场发起"春季攻势"，从AI板块占主导到科技领域百花 齐放，市场风险偏好明显提高； 债市持续震荡：债市却在去年大牛市后进入盘整期，受资金面边际收紧、风险偏好抬升以及央行降息预 期回摆等因素影响，10年国债收益率从最低点最多上行约30bp。（时间范围：2025/1/1-2025/3/24） 数据来源：Wind，中泰 证券研究所，统计区间2002/01/01-2024/10/28，历史业绩不代表未来表现 这种负相关关系主要是由以下几个因素造成： 风险偏好变化： 当投资者对风险感到担忧时，可能会将资金从风险较高的股票市场转向相对稳定的债券市场，导致股票 价格下跌而债券价格上涨。相反，当投资者对风险持乐观态度时，可能更愿意投资于股票市场，这可能 导致股票价格上涨而债券价格下跌。 经济周期和市场预期： 在经济衰退或市场预期不佳的情况下，企业盈利和股票市场或面临压力，可能导致股票价格下跌而 ...

Core Insights - Since February 20, global market volatility has increased, with significant declines in US stocks, while A-shares have shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 5.2% during the same period [1] Fund Flow Perspective - The recent strength in A-shares and increased trading volume is attributed to accelerated inflows of external capital. Domestic capital is shifting from bonds to stocks, with macro liquidity becoming more accommodative since March [2] - As of March 14, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 1.84%, up 14 basis points from the beginning of the month, indicating a rebalancing of funds from bonds to stocks [2] - Retail investor sentiment has strengthened significantly, with an average weekly net inflow of 161.2 billion yuan over the past five weeks, an increase of 95.7 billion yuan compared to early January [2] - Leverage funds have also seen accelerated inflows, with a cumulative scale approaching 150 billion yuan since early February, particularly benefiting the electronics and computer sectors [2] - Both public and private equity funds have reached historical high positions, with subjective long strategy private equity averaging 79% in positions by the end of February, and public mixed equity funds reaching 83.9% as of March 14 [2] Foreign Capital Outlook - Foreign capital is increasingly optimistic about A-shares, with institutions like Citigroup and HSBC downgrading US stock ratings while expressing confidence in Chinese assets, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence and the tech sector [3] - The average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect has increased, with net inflows from passive foreign capital reaching a new high since November of the previous year [3] Market Outlook - The potential impact of continued pressure on US stocks on A-shares is a key concern. If US stocks experience a significant decline, it may be challenging for A-shares to remain unaffected [4] - However, the likelihood of a liquidity crisis in A-shares is currently low, and they may even benefit from liquidity spillover from US stock declines [5] - If US stocks experience moderate declines, A-shares are expected to maintain their independent performance, driven primarily by domestic policies and industry trends [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that since February 20, global market volatility has increased, with significant declines in US stocks, while A-shares have shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 5.2% during the same period [1][2]. - The report indicates that the recent independent performance of A-shares is largely attributed to the accelerated inflow of external funds, with retail investor sentiment improving significantly, as evidenced by a weekly net inflow of 161.2 billion yuan from February 10 to March 14, an increase of 95.7 billion yuan compared to early January [2][3]. - It notes that leverage funds have also been flowing into the market, with a cumulative inflow of nearly 150 billion yuan since early February, particularly benefiting technology sectors such as electronics and computers [2][3]. Group 2 - The report discusses the outlook for A-shares in relation to the performance of US stocks, suggesting that if US stocks continue to face downward pressure, A-shares may benefit from liquidity spillover rather than being negatively impacted [4][5]. - It emphasizes that the current probability of a liquidity crisis in A-shares is low, and the market may actually gain from the decline in US stocks, as external funds are increasingly focused on Chinese assets, particularly in the context of AI and technology sectors [5][7]. - The report concludes that while A-shares are currently in a favorable trading phase driven by domestic policies and industry trends, prolonged declines in US stocks could eventually lead to concerns about external demand weakening and corporate profitability being pressured [7].

今天A股有两波跳水，第一波是上午一路走高后，11点左右跳了一波，幅度相对较小，第二波跳水是下午13点30开始，幅度相对大一点，也使得 日终的时候，上证和沪深300都转跌了。 但更重要的，还是股债跷跷板的现象，我拉了一个图，下面这个， 上半部分是沪深300的走势 ，绿色框框是下午跳水的区间； 而下半部分，是 今天债券的机构买卖力量 ——解释一下， 债券有买也有卖，买卖匹配才能最终成交 ， T代表Taken，如果是Taken成交，意味着是买方主动， 说明债市买盘力量更强；而G代表Given，意味着卖方接受买方的报价成交，说明买盘比较弱，卖方往往要"让利"才能卖得出去；D表示Deal，指 买卖双方通过协商达成中间价成交，数量少，可以忽略。 那么，可以看到， 下午13点30之后，股债跷跷板现象非常明显 ——股市跳水，伴随着债市的买盘，开始加速买入，也就是蓝色的Taken（T）， 斜率大幅向上。 回过头来看，今天A股的表现和股债跷跷板效应，可能交易了三个信息。 第一层，开盘的时候， 交易周末较好的官方制造业PMI的数据 ，上午9点45的时候，财新制造业PMI数据也披露了，也创近三个月新高，这个时 候，股市走高，而债市的 ...