Group 1 - The macroeconomic policy continues to exert force and timely adjustments are made to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of economic recovery [7] - In the first half of the year, the added value of the electronic information manufacturing industry increased by 11.1% year-on-year [8] - In the first half of the year, the newly installed capacity of renewable energy in China accounted for over 90% [9] Group 2 - The Supreme Court issued judicial interpretations on labor disputes, effective from September 1 [10] - Four departments released a notice to regulate the medical science communication behavior of "self-media" [11] - The labeling of the shelf life for traditional Chinese medicine pieces is implemented starting today [12]

本刊记者 王红茹 7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，并部署下半年经济工作。上半年经济数据刚刚发布，此次会议备受国内外关注。 《中国经济周刊》记者专访了全国政协委员、中国财政科学研究院原院长刘尚希，解读会议内涵。 这种政策取向既保持了连续性，又为应对不确定性预留了空间。 2 《中国经济周刊》：会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。如何理解？ 刘尚希：去年年底中央经济工作会议和今年政府工作报告均强调要"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"，此次会议提出的"持续发力"，正是对这一政策基调的 延续和坚持。 需要特别注意的是，这些政策表述都具有特定的时代背景和政策语境，必须结合具体形势理解。自去年9月26日中央政治局会议部署一揽子增量政策以 来，直至今年上半年两会期间，宏观政策始终保持积极有为的基调，这正是"持续发力"的实质内涵。 而"适时加力"则是本次会议提出的新要求，意味着要根据形势变化灵活调整政策力度，必要时出台新的政策措施。这体现了相机抉择的宏观调控策略，因 为面对诸多难以预见的变量因素，必须保持政策灵活性和应变能力。 《中国经济周刊》：会议着重强调要"有效释放内需潜力"，与中央经济工作会议提 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the steel products industry are weak, and steel prices are undergoing a correction. The market is mainly influenced by macro factors and sentiment, with large price fluctuations. It is recommended to mainly observe the market [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Steel Inventory - This week, the total steel inventory was 13.5189 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01539 million tons. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 0.40952 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0001 million tons; the social inventory was 0.94237 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01529 million tons [3] - The inventory of steel billets in major warehouses and ports in Tangshan was 1.223 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0552 million tons and a 12.22% increase compared to the same period last year [3] Production Line Operation - Among the 87 section steel production lines in Tangshan, 27 were actually in operation, with an overall start - up rate of 45.76%, a 5.08% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate of profiles was 46.12%, a 0.80% increase from last week [3] Steel Price - On July 31, the ex - factory tax - included price of common square billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan was cumulatively reduced by 100 yuan, reaching 3080 yuan per ton [3] Market Situation - During the research period, the steel market trend slowed down week - on - week, trading activity decreased, there was more wait - and - see attitude at high prices, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly. Some domestic trade resources at ports were still being shipped for export [3] - In terms of weekly data, both supply and demand of rebar decreased and inventory increased, while for hot - rolled steel, both supply, demand, and inventory increased. The weekly fundamentals were neutral to weak [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations with a recent increase in the scale of the 30-year government bond ETF, indicating a positive sentiment among investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 10:00 AM, the 30-year government bond ETF (511090) decreased by 0.25%, while its scale surpassed 23.2 billion yuan [1]. - The latest price for the 30-year government bond futures contract (TL2509) was 119.12 yuan, remaining unchanged, with a trading volume of 26,103 contracts and a total open interest of 114,229 contracts [1]. - Other government bond futures, including the 10-year (T2509) and 5-year (TF2509) contracts, showed minimal changes, with the 10-year contract down by 0.01% and the 5-year contract unchanged [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The People's Bank of China conducted a 126 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a stable interest rate of 1.40% [1]. - The central bank's recent meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policies, including proactive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies to enhance liquidity and lower financing costs [2]. - Following the meeting, the bond market sentiment improved, with the 30-year government bond futures rising for two consecutive days, reflecting a stable fundamental outlook for fixed-income assets [2]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Pengyang 30-year government bond ETF (511090) is the first ETF tracking the 30-year government bond index, offering T+0 trading attributes, which allows investors to capitalize on intraday price movements [2]. - This ETF serves as a high-elasticity cash management tool and a duration adjustment tool for portfolios, making it attractive for investors, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most of the products in the report are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, methanol, urea, propylene. Crude oil is recommended to hold short positions, and asphalt is rated as "Bearish" [1][2]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities, indicating that many are facing supply - demand imbalances or macro - economic pressures, leading to a generally bearish outlook. For example, geopolitical risks in the oil market are releasing, and OPEC+ production increases are putting pressure on oil prices. New capacity in some chemical products is expected to increase supply, while demand is seasonally weak [1][6]. 3. Summaries Based on Commodity Categories Crude Oil - **Core View**: Hold short positions [1]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks have been released, and oil prices have fallen. Although there are short - term geopolitical and macro - economic positives, from a supply - demand perspective, OPEC+ production increases are gradually releasing pressure, and the peak season is in the second half, with the oil price center still having room to decline. The US 5 - month crude oil production increased, and commercial and strategic oil reserves also changed [6][7]. - **Strategy**: For the 10 - contract, short positions can be established, and call options can be bought to protect the position. If short positions are already held, it is recommended to continue holding. Pay attention to the range of 520 - 530 yuan for SC [8]. LPG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are oscillating, and Saudi Arabia has lowered the August CP contract price. The LPG's own fundamentals are okay, but the cost end is the main drag. Supply has increased slightly, and demand from some downstream industries has decreased. Inventory has changed, with port inventory increasing and refinery inventory decreasing [11]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the range of 3950 - 4050 yuan for PG [12]. L (Polyethylene) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Most devices have recently restarted, increasing supply pressure. The basis and monthly spreads are at low levels compared to the same period. Social inventory has been accumulating for 5 weeks, and the fundamentals are weak. There are plans to put new capacity into production in August [18]. - **Strategy**: Industrial customers can sell - hedge at an appropriate time, and short positions can be established on the far - month contracts. Pay attention to the range of 7200 - 7500 yuan for L [18]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Market sentiment has cooled. Although there are high - level maintenance in the short - term, the production capacity pressure in the third quarter is high. New capacity is planned to be released in August, and domestic demand is at the turning point between peak and off - peak seasons, with weak downstream restocking power. Inventory has started to accumulate, and high production restricts the rebound space [25]. - **Strategy**: Short positions can be established on the far - month contracts or a 9 - 1 monthly positive spread can be established. Pay attention to the range of 7050 - 7200 yuan for PP [25]. PVC - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: The market has returned to weak fundamentals, and the futures price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average. New devices have reached full - load production, and there are few maintenance plans in August. It is the off - season for both domestic and foreign demand, and social inventory has been accumulating for 6 weeks, with the supply - demand pattern expected to continue to accumulate inventory in August [31]. - **Strategy**: Short positions can be established on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of 5000 - 5120 yuan for V [31]. PX - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and PX inventory is declining but still relatively high. PXN is not low, and there is no macro - economic upside surprise at the end of July. The probability of a September interest rate cut has decreased, and overnight crude oil has weakened [1]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on pull - backs, and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of 6800 - 6920 yuan for PX [37]. PTA - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Recent device changes are relatively small, but new PTA devices are expected to be put into production, increasing supply - side pressure. Demand is seasonally weak, and the fundamentals are expected to shift from a tight balance to a looser state. The cost support has weakened [40]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions; pay attention to the possibility of expanding the PTA processing fee; sell call options. Pay attention to the range of 4720 - 4800 yuan for TA [41]. Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices have slightly increased their loads. The arrival and import volumes are low compared to the same period, but the inflection point is approaching. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and orders are continuously declining. Although the supply - demand was in a tight balance in July, low inventory supports the price, but the macro - economic situation is not favorable [44]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, pay attention to short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of 4360 - 4430 yuan for EG [45]. Glass - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: Politburo meeting policies did not exceed expectations, and the manufacturing PMI declined and was below the boom - bust line, suppressing the commodity market sentiment. Production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, and inventory has decreased for 6 weeks, mainly due to inventory transfer rather than terminal consumption. As the delivery month approaches, the market focus shifts from expectations to fundamentals [49]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of 1090 - 1150 yuan for FG [50]. Soda Ash - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: The hype of macro - policies has cooled, and short - selling funds have increased. The overall production of soda ash has slightly decreased, and the inventory of soda ash plants has decreased for the third week but is still at a historical high. The supply - demand surplus pattern has not significantly improved, and the fundamentals are bearish under the background of high supply and high inventory. The market logic has shifted from macro - policy expectations to the industrial fundamentals [54]. - **Strategy**: Wait patiently for the price to pull back [54]. Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: Due to summer device maintenance, industry start - up has declined. Some downstream alumina plants have resumed production, and alumina production and capacity utilization have increased. Caustic soda supply and demand are balanced, but inventory is high compared to the same period, and there is no obvious fundamental driver for the futures price. Macro - policy expectations have cooled, and the downstream alumina futures price has pulled back [59]. - **Strategy**: Adjust the operation cycle to be shorter [59]. Methanol - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: Domestic and foreign methanol devices have increased their loads, and the supply - side pressure is expected to increase. In August, port methanol is expected to start the inventory accumulation cycle. Demand is relatively good, but traditional demand has declined. Social inventory is low overall, but the trend is to accumulate. The cost support is stable [62]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, pay attention to short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of 2370 - 2420 yuan for MA [63]. Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: Urea device start - up remains high, and production pressure is not reduced. Domestic agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and factory inventory has increased, but exports are relatively good, and port inventory has decreased. The domestic urea fundamentals are still relatively loose, and there is no macro - economic upside surprise [2]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions in batches, short positions can be established on rallies. Urea has a wide - range oscillation, and double - selling options can be used. Pay attention to the range of 1705 - 1735 yuan for UR [2]. Asphalt - **Core View**: Bearish [2]. - **Logic**: The cost - end oil price has room to compress, and raw material supply is sufficient. Supply has increased while demand has decreased, inventory has accumulated, and the current cracking spread is at a high level, with over - valuation [2]. - **Strategy**: Try short positions with a light position. Pay attention to the range of 3600 - 3700 yuan for BU [2]. Propylene - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: The August propane CP quotation has decreased, weakening cost support. The spot decline has slowed down, and the futures price is closing the basis. PDH start - up has continued to rise, and factory inventory is at a high level and accumulating. PP powder start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, and demand support is insufficient [2]. - **Strategy**: Short positions can be established on rebounds, hold the 1 - 2 monthly reverse spread, and go long on the PP futures processing fee. Pay attention to the range of 6450 - 6600 yuan for PL [2].

上周债市经历显著调整，本周则呈现双向宽幅波动特征。10年期国债活跃券收益率本周在1.712%至 1.750%震荡，30年期国债活跃券收益率在1.918%至1.965%震荡，日内波动幅度较6月有所加大。 关注点二是深化改革重要性提升，将现代化产业体系建设相关表述放在深化改革框架之下。新增"反内 卷"相关表述，但注重"无序竞争""产能治理""地方招商"，弱化"低价"问题。 会议强调政策连续性稳定性 关注点三是对资本市场的表述从此前的"稳定和活跃"改为"增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性"，有助 于风险偏好和市场活跃度继续稳步提升。 7月中共中央政治局会议强调"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性""宏观政策要持续发力、适时 加力""要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应"。在二季度GDP表 现维持韧性、6月经济基本面运行平稳且结构分化的背景下，会议定调下半年宏观政策取向保持积极， 延续一致性导向。 关注点四是扩内需继续放在首位，但取消"两新"表述。稳外贸措辞增加，保民生、促就业仍是重点，安 全工作部署进一步强化。整体表述基本延续去年年底中央经济工作会议精神。 关注点一是充分肯定了今年上 ...

今年以来，在更加积极有为的宏观政策推动下，我国经济展现出强大活力和韧性。上半年，国内生产总 值同比增长5.3%，内需对经济增长贡献率达68.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率为52%，成为增长的主动 力和稳定锚。经济结构持续优化，高技术产业增加值同比增长9.5%。 从经济理论和实践经验看，宏观政策的传导是需要时间的，已实施措施的效果还会进一步显现。与此同 时，中共中央政治局会议强调"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性"，这意味着未来政策效应将 进一步释放，从而更好巩固宏观经济的回升向好势头。 其一，更加积极的财政政策将进一步增强经济韧性。 今年以来，财政政策综合运用超长期特别国债、政府债券、财政补贴、贷款贴息等工具，通过与其他宏 观政策协同发力，在支持全方位扩大国内需求、畅通经济循环、推进现代化产业体系建设、保障和改善 民生、防范化解地方政府债务风险等领域发挥了十分重要的作用。 此次中共中央政治局会议强调，"加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层'三保'底线"。 未来，随着超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券等工具的加快发行和使用，财政政策将在促消费扩内 需、支持传统产业改造提升、促进新兴产业和未来产业发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need for sustained and appropriately intensified macroeconomic policies to enhance economic resilience and vitality, with a focus on proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy - The implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy will further enhance economic resilience, utilizing tools such as long-term special government bonds, government bonds, fiscal subsidies, and loan interest subsidies to support domestic demand and economic circulation [2] - The meeting highlighted the need to accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds to improve fund efficiency and ensure the basic livelihood of local governments [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy will further enhance economic vitality, with measures taken to ensure ample liquidity and lower financing costs for the economy [3] - The meeting emphasized the continued use of structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and foreign trade [3] Group 3: Capital Market - The trend of stabilization and improvement in the capital market is expected to continue, supported by strong policy signals and measures to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market [4] - The ongoing macroeconomic policies will create a solid foundation for the stable operation of the capital market, reinforcing the upward momentum of the economy [4]

今年以来，我国货币政策根据形势变化相机抉择，节奏和力度适时适度，在推动扩大国内需求、稳定社 会预期、激发市场活力，支持实现全年经济社会发展目标和任务方面发挥了巨大作用。 今年以来，在更加积极有为的宏观政策推动下，我国经济展现出强大活力和韧性。上半年，国内生产总 值同比增长5.3%，内需对经济增长贡献率达68.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率为52%，成为增长的主动 力和稳定锚。经济结构持续优化，高技术产业增加值同比增长9.5%。 从经济理论和实践经验看，宏观政策的传导是需要时间的，已实施措施的效果还会进一步显现。与此同 时，中共中央政治局会议强调"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性"，这意味着未来政策效应将 进一步释放，从而更好巩固宏观经济的回升向好势头。 其一，更加积极的财政政策将进一步增强经济韧性。 今年以来，财政政策综合运用超长期特别国债、政府债券、财政补贴、贷款贴息等工具，通过与其他宏 观政策协同发力，在支持全方位扩大国内需求、畅通经济循环、推进现代化产业体系建设、保障和改善 民生、防范化解地方政府债务风险等领域发挥了十分重要的作用。 此次中共中央政治局会议强调，"加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效 ...

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic policy is expected to continue to strengthen, with a projected GDP growth of around 5.0% in the second half of the year [1] Economic Indicators - In the first half of the year, major economic indicators showed positive performance, with GDP growing by 5.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to both the same period last year and the entire previous year [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year-on-year [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 2.8% year-on-year [1] - Exports rose by 7.2% year-on-year [1] - The employment situation remained generally stable, and residents' income showed steady growth, indicating a sustained positive trend in economic operations [1]