Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US economic outlook is dim, and the upward momentum of the US dollar index is insufficient, which is favorable for gold. Gold is expected to have a slightly bullish mid - term wide - range oscillation. [2] - Crude oil is in a multi - empty stalemate stage. After the summer demand peak, there may be an oversupply situation. With OPEC+ maintaining an increasing production stance, crude oil has an expected supply increase, and it is bearish at high levels. [2] - Steel prices may have a narrow - range adjustment in the short term due to weakened downstream construction demand and cost support. [4] - Coal prices are likely to be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, but the increase rate will slow down. [4] - Manganese silicon prices are expected to follow the sector in the short term, with limited cost support and increasing difficulty in destocking in the future. [5] - Pig prices are expected to continue a weak adjustment in the short term, and interval trading is recommended. [6] - Glass is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long when it retraces. [7] - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, and waiting and seeing or interval trading is recommended. [9] - It is recommended to go long on rapeseed meal at low prices, and pay attention to relevant policy and market changes. [10] - Plastic is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing is recommended. [11] - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing or short - term long when it retraces is recommended. [12] - For long - term national bonds, pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw and the Politburo meeting in July. For short - term national bonds, the short - term upward momentum may be stronger than that of long - term bonds. [13][14] - The upward momentum of silver weakens, and pay attention to the relationship between gold and silver prices. [14] - For PTA, a short - selling strategy at high levels is recommended. [15] - Natural rubber is expected to oscillate with a seasonal increase in supply and weak demand. [15] 3. Summary by Commodity Gold - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that from late May to early July, economic activity slightly increased, but uncertainty is high, and the economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic. The weak US economic outlook and insufficient upward momentum of the US dollar index are favorable for gold. [2] Crude Oil - In the week of July 11, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1000 barrels to 1.3375 million barrels per day, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels. After the summer demand peak, there may be an oversupply, and OPEC+ maintains an increasing production stance. [2] Steel - On July 16, domestic steel oscillated weakly. The ex - factory tax - included price of common billets in Qian'an, Tangshan remained stable at 2950 yuan/ton. Three steel mills lowered the ex - factory prices of construction steel by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. High - temperature weather affects downstream construction, weakening steel demand, but cost supports steel prices. [4] Coking Coal - The开工 rate of 110 sample coal washing plants is 62.85%, an increase of 0.53% from the previous period, and the daily average output increased by 0.79 million tons. Coal prices have risen significantly since the end of June, but downstream resistance to high - price coal and profit - taking in the trading link may slow down the increase rate. [4] Manganese Silicon - The开工 rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 40.55%, an increase of 0.21% from last week, and the daily average output increased by 310 tons. The supply of Australian ore is recovering, and the ore price may decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon tends to be loose in the future. [5] Pig - On July 16, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.61 yuan/kg, a 0.6% decrease from the previous day. High - temperature season, high feed cost, and weak terminal demand lead to a weak adjustment in pig prices. [6] Glass - The average price of float glass is 1179 yuan/ton, the开工 rate is 75.68%, and the total inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 2.87% month - on - month. Terminal demand is weak, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term. [7] Palm Oil - From July 1 to 15, 2025, the yield of palm fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 17.95%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and the palm oil production increased by 17.06%. The price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term. [9] Rapeseed Meal - As of the 28th week of 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed meal in major regions increased by 2.54 million tons compared with last week. The spot market sentiment is optimistic, but the addition ratio in feed is low. [10] Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 7258 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The weekly production decreased by 0.3%, and the production enterprise inventory increased by 2.62% week - on - week. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. [11] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased by 9.92% week - on - week, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.46 million tons. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. [12] National Bonds - For long - term national bonds, expanding domestic demand is emphasized, and the stock - bond seesaw and the Politburo meeting in July are key. For short - term national bonds, the central bank's net investment is favorable for the bond market, and the short - term upward momentum may be stronger. [13][14] Silver - US PPI data in June was lower than expected, weakening the upward momentum of silver. Pay attention to whether gold and silver prices move in sync. [14] PTA - The CFR price of PX is 836 US dollars/ton, and the price of PTA in East China is 4718 yuan/ton. Polyester inventory accumulates, and demand drags down the spot price. A short - selling strategy at high levels is recommended. [15] Rubber - The price of raw rubber in Thailand is 54.3 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber is 48.35 Thai baht/kg. In the first half of 2025, rubber exports from Cote d'Ivoire increased by 11.8% year - on - year, while those from Cambodia decreased by 20% year - on - year. Supply increases seasonally, and demand is weak. [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market is generally in a state of loose supply and demand, with the domestic soybean market showing obvious inventory accumulation characteristics [4]. - Raw sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to global supply - demand expectations and potential buying support, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively [10]. - After continuous increases, the upward momentum of oils and fats has weakened, and they may experience a short - term shock and decline [17]. - The CBOT corn futures are rising, and the domestic corn market is expected to have limited downside space, with the spot market being relatively weak in the short - term and the futures market oscillating at the bottom [23][25]. - The pig price is expected to fluctuate as the supply side remains relatively stable [29]. - Peanuts are expected to have a short - term narrow - range shock, but there is a potential for a medium - to - long - term decline due to the expected increase in planting area [33]. - Egg prices are expected to strengthen seasonally, and the September contract is expected to rise after reaching the bottom [41]. - Apples are expected to have a short - term oscillating trend due to low supply and weak demand before the new - season apples are on the market [44]. - Cotton is expected to have limited upward space in the short - term, with the market influenced by factors such as potential quota issuance and trade - tariff uncertainties [50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.47% to 1009.24 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.07% to $278.1 per short ton [2]. - **相关资讯**: Brazil's July soybean export forecast is 12.19 million tons, and soybean meal export forecast is 225,000 tons. The US June 2025 soybean crush was 185.709 million bushels. As of July 10, US soybean export inspection was 147,000 tons. As of July 11, the actual soybean crush of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52% [2][3]. - **逻辑分析**: The international soybean market has loose supply and demand. The US new - crop soybean export is slow, and Brazil and Argentina have high production with export pressure. The domestic soybean market has high arrivals and crush, showing inventory accumulation [4]. - **策略建议**: Close previous long positions and wait and see; enter a small - scale RM91 reverse spread; wait and see for options [6]. Sugar - **外盘情况**: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.26 (1.60%) to 16.56 cents per pound [7]. - **重要咨讯**: In the second half of June 2025, Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production decreased by 12.98% year - on - year. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first two weeks of July decreased by 21.66% year - on - year [8][9]. - **逻辑分析**: Raw sugar is weak due to global supply - demand expectations but may be supported by buying. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar passively [10]. - **持仓建议**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term; wait and see for spreads; use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [11][12]. Oils and Fats - **外盘情况**: CBOT US soybean oil main price changed by - 0.64% to 54.36 cents per pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by 0.92% to 4186 ringgit per ton [14]. - **相关资讯**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The US June soybean crush was higher than expected, and the soybean oil inventory reached a five - month low. Brazil's July soybean and soybean meal export forecasts increased [15][16]. - **逻辑分析**: The upward momentum of oils and fats has weakened, and they may decline in the short - term. Palm oil is in the process of production and inventory accumulation, and domestic soybean oil is in a phased inventory accumulation [17]. - **交易策略**: Oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and decline in the short - term; consider partial profit - taking for YP09 spread; wait and see for options [18][19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: CBOT corn futures rose, with the December main contract rising 0.2% to 419.0 cents per bushel [23]. - **重要资讯**: CBOT corn futures rose slightly, supported by short - covering and bargain - hunting. Brazil's July corn export forecast is 4.6 million tons. The US corn good - to - excellent rate is 74%, and the North Port's purchase price is stable [24]. - **逻辑分析**: US corn is oscillating at the bottom with limited downside space. The domestic corn supply is relatively short, and the spot market is relatively weak, while the futures market oscillates at the bottom [25]. - **交易策略**: The December CBOT corn is oscillating at the bottom, and consider short - term long positions for the September contract; close the long - corn and short - September - corn spread; consider a high - selling strategy for options with spot positions [26][27][28]. Pigs - **相关资讯**: Pig prices are oscillating, with stable prices in different regions. Piglet and sow prices increased slightly. The national average pork price in the wholesale market rose by 0.7% [29]. - **逻辑分析**: Pig prices are expected to oscillate as the supply side remains stable [29]. - **策略建议**: Wait and see for single - side trading; enter a LH91 positive spread; wait and see for options [30]. Peanuts - **重要资讯**: Peanut prices in different regions are reported, and peanut oil factory purchase prices are relatively stable. Peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased. Peanut meal sales are slow [32]. - **逻辑分析**: Peanut spot trading is light. New - season peanuts in Henan and Northeast China have declined. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 10 - peanut contract is expected to have a short - term narrow - range shock and a medium - to - long - term decline [33]. - **交易策略**: Consider short - selling the 10 - peanut contract at high prices and wait and see for now; wait and see for spreads; sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option [34][35][36]. Eggs - **重要资讯**: Egg prices in the main production and sales areas are stable. The national in - production laying - hen inventory increased in June. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas decreased, and the inventory decreased. The egg - farming profit is negative [38][39][40][41]. - **交易逻辑**: Egg prices are stable at the current level and are expected to strengthen seasonally. The September contract is expected to rise after the plum - rain season [41]. - **交易策略**: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the plum - rain season is about to end; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [41]. Apples - **重要资讯**: The national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the off - season sales speed slowed down. Apple import and export volumes changed. The spot price is stable, and the storage - merchant profit increased [43][44]. - **交易逻辑**: The apple market has low inventory and weak demand in the off - season, with little supply - demand contradiction. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [44]. - **交易策略**: The AP10 contract is expected to oscillate, and consider a low - buying and high - selling strategy; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [48][45]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: ICE US cotton rose, with the main contract rising 0.46 (0.68%) to 68.57 cents per pound [46]. - **重要资讯**: Brazil's cotton harvest progress is 13.6%, slower than last year. US cotton growth progress is slightly lagging, but the good - to - excellent rate is high, and the production is expected to increase. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production forecast is 3.938 million tons [47][48][49]. - **交易逻辑**: Cotton commercial inventory and import volume are at low levels, but the market expects potential quota issuance. The trade - tariff issue has uncertainties. The upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be limited [50]. - **交易策略**: US cotton is expected to oscillate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short - term with limited upward space; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "oscillating" for most products, "oscillating and declining" for corn and starch, and "oscillating weakly" for logs [5][6][7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Most agricultural products are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with different influencing factors for each product. The market is affected by various factors such as weather, supply and demand, trade relations, and macro - economic conditions [5][6][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The growth of US soybeans is good, and market sentiment has weakened. - **Logic**: As of July 13, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than expected. The US foreign trade tension has increased, and the US dollar rose on Monday. The expected increase in US biodiesel demand for US soybean oil and the increase in the biodiesel blending ratio in Brazil are positive factors. However, the large arrival volume of imported soybeans in China and the expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia are negative factors. - **Outlook**: The oil market is expected to continue to oscillate and differentiate in the near future [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **View**: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and US soybeans are weaker than Dalian soybean meal. - **Logic**: International trade tensions are high. US soybeans are growing smoothly, but the export prospects are worrying. Brazilian soybean exports are still high. In China, the supply pressure dominates the weakness of the spot market, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures price. - **Outlook**: The domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the domestic futures market is stronger than the spot market. The basis is expected to weaken. In the short - term, it will oscillate within a range, and in the long - term, it will be bullish [6]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Pay attention to the risk of a periodic rebound. - **Logic**: The supply of ports and deep - processing enterprises has decreased slightly. The futures price rebounded slightly during the day and then fell back. The cumulative auction volume of imported corn is 137 million tons, and the transaction volume is about 82 million tons. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term [7]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: Supply and demand are stable, and pig prices oscillate. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large pigs are still being sold off, but the average weight has bottomed out and rebounded. The planned slaughter volume of group farms in July has decreased. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets from January to May 2025 has increased, and the slaughter volume is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the production capacity is still high. - **Outlook**: The reform expectation on the supply side boosts the sentiment of pig futures. The price is expected to oscillate, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - and long - term [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: It runs oscillating and strongly. - **Logic**: It is affected by capital sentiment at night and then adjusts with the market during the day. The trading logic follows the macro - sentiment. The supply in Asian producing areas is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand from tire enterprises has recovered. - **Outlook**: It may follow the overall commodity fluctuations before the fundamental situation provides guidance [11][13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price oscillates within a range. - **Logic**: It follows the movement of natural rubber and the overall commodity market, but the amplitude is limited. There is no obvious upward driving force, but there is support from the macro - environment and the improvement of butadiene trading. - **Outlook**: It is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to device changes [14]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices fluctuate within a narrow range. - **Logic**: According to the USDA's static balance sheet for the 25/26 season, the global, Chinese, and US cotton markets are all loose. The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production and the weak demand in the off - season are negative factors. However, the low inventory before the new cotton is listed provides support. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. There is a risk of price decline when a large amount of new cotton is listed [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Pay attention to import changes. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, sugar prices are weak and under downward pressure due to the expected oversupply in the 25/26 season. In the short - term, the decline in Brazil's sugar production and the high sales - to - production ratio in China support the price, but the increase in Brazil's production and exports and China's imports will increase the supply pressure. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly; in the short - term, they are expected to oscillate [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The macro - environment dominates the trend, and pulp prices are rising within a range. - **Logic**: The futures price rises with the macro - atmosphere. The supply and demand are in a stalemate, and the upward driving force comes from the macro - environment. The low US dollar price, high overseas pulp mill inventory, and weak downstream demand limit the upward space. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate due to the warm macro - atmosphere, weak supply - demand guidance, and low absolute valuation [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The outbound volume has declined, and the inventory has increased. - **Logic**: The new - week outbound volume of logs has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The spot price is weak due to the impact of deliverable goods. The cost of both buyers and sellers has increased during the 07 delivery. The overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory - reduction rhythm is slow. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly around the delivery cost in the short - term [19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions variety data monitoring for oils and fats, corn and starch, pigs, cotton and yarn, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply, and the new - year cotton price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - to - long term, although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly [2] - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in a range, and the medium - to - long term view is to sell short on rallies. The import volume in July - August is expected to increase, which will limit the upside space [5] - The short - term macro - favorable factors boost the pulp price, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,286 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF09 + 1436, up 29 from the previous day; the national average price was 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF09 + 1452, up 32 from the previous day [1] - As of July 13, the budding rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 61%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 23%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 54%, 9 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International: The July USDA supply - demand report raised the global cotton production and ending stocks, with a bearish adjustment direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will be in a loose supply pattern. The USDA raised the new US cotton production, and the new - year US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve significantly [2] - Domestic: The domestic cotton commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the short - term expectation of tight supply at the end of the year supports Zhengzhou cotton. However, the domestic cotton planting area is stable with a slight increase, the new cotton is growing well, and the demand in the off - season is weak, so the continuous upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. In the medium - to - long term, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly, the new - year cotton market will be in a pattern of oversupply, and the medium - to - long term cotton price is expected to be under pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,802 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.26%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR09 + 258, up 15 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR09 + 103, up 15 from the previous day [2] - As of the second half of June in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 206.198 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.06%; the ATR of cane was 122.19 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 6.14 kg/ton; the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 51.02%, a year - on - year increase of 2.33%; the cumulative ethanol production was 9.425 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.81%; the cumulative sugar production was 12.249 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.25% [3] Market Analysis - International: The current market is optimistic about the supply prospects of major sugar - producing countries in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season. The long - term raw sugar price is under downward pressure, but there is a possibility of a short - term oversold rebound [4] - Domestic: The sales and production progress of domestic sugar in this sugar - crushing season is fast, and the industrial inventory has dropped to a historical low, making the spot price relatively firm. However, the rebound of the import profit after the quota due to the weakening of the external market, and the expected increase in imports in July - August will limit the upside space of Zhengzhou sugar [5] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in a range. It is recommended to sell high and buy low in the range. The medium - to - long term view is to sell short on rallies, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,262 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP09 + 688, down 18 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5,215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP09 - 47, down 18 from the previous day [6] - The spot price of imported wood pulp was generally stable, with some pulp types showing price increases due to sellers' reluctance to sell at low prices. The prices of some softwood pulp grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, Northeast China, Henan, and Hebei dropped by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; the prices of some hardwood pulp grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Northeast China, Hebei, and Henan increased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton; the supply - demand of imported natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp changed little, and the prices were stable [6] Market Analysis - Supply: The import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year in the first half of 2025, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in hardwood pulp imports was relatively large. The import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline in the second half of the year, but the port inventory is high, and the supply pressure in the second half of the year still exists, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [7] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US has been weak this year, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure is emerging. The domestic demand is weak due to the traditional off - season, the inventory pressure of finished paper is rising, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term macro - favorable factors boost the pulp price, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 需求韧性尚可，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 铁矿石供需两端有所变化，淡季钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗延续回落，但仍处于相对高位，且 钢厂盈利状况良好，需求韧性尚可，给予矿价支撑。同时，港口到货虽环比大增，但矿商发运则是延 续偏弱态势，按船期推算后续到货仍将回落 ...

Group 1: Pig Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The current breeding profit has returned to a low level, and the market is cautious about expanding production capacity. There is no basis for a significant decline in the market. The market expects a potential market wave in July and August due to the impact of piglet diarrhea at the beginning of the year, but the actual subsequent slaughter is expected to continue to recover, and the live inventory continues to be postponed. The pressure on the upper side of the 09 contract is accumulating. Pay attention to the pressure above 14,500 yuan/ton and operate with a short - bias when the price is high [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract price increased by 8.43% to 450 yuan/ton, the "pig 2511" contract rose 0.11% to 13,620 yuan/ton, and the "pig 2509" contract fell 0.25% to 14,250 yuan/ton. The 9 - 11 spread decreased by 7.35%. The main contract positions decreased by 2.17%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in Henan remained unchanged, while those in Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Hunan, and Hebei decreased slightly. The sample point slaughter volume increased by 0.84%, the weekly white - strip price remained unchanged, the weekly piglet price decreased by 3.20%, the weekly sow price remained unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.30%, the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 11.82%, and the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit increased by 220.34%. The monthly fertile sow inventory increased by 0.10% [2]. Group 2: Oil and Fat Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures have pulled back from high levels, with limited rebound space and the risk of further decline after the rebound. Domestic palm oil still has the pressure to weaken and adjust, and it is expected to seek support at 8,500 yuan/ton. For soybean oil, the market's digestion of the US sanctions on Russia has put pressure on crude oil, dragging down the vegetable oil market. CBOT soybean oil has maintained a narrow - range shock adjustment. Domestic soybean imports are expected to be high in July - August, but the market's attention has shifted to the limited imports in the fourth quarter, and there will be positive factors in August [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures and Spot Data**: For soybean oil, the current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.36%, the futures price of Y2509 increased by 0.23%, and the basis increased by 5.08%. For palm oil, the current price in Guangdong decreased by 0.34%, the futures price of P2509 decreased by 0.46%, and the basis changed significantly. For rapeseed oil, the current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.31%, the futures price of Ol209 increased by 0.21%, and the basis increased by 43.10%. There were also changes in cross - period spreads and price differences between different oils [4]. Group 3: Corn Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View On July 15, the transaction volume of imported corn auctions reached a new low. With the depletion of remaining grain, traders are more likely to support prices, and the overall price is stable with partial rebounds. The downstream deep - processing industry is in the seasonal maintenance period, and the demand from the breeding end is mainly for rigid replenishment. In the medium term, the tight supply of corn and the increase in breeding consumption will support the corn price. In the short term, the weak market sentiment is gradually being released, and the corn price is stabilizing, with the futures market remaining volatile. Attention should be paid to the scale and transaction of subsequent auctions [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures and Spot Data**: The price of the "corn 2509" contract decreased by 0.30%, the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port remained unchanged, the basis increased by 14.58%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 7.81%, and the import profit decreased by 2.83%. For corn starch, the price of the "corn starch 2509" contract decreased by 0.23%, and the basis increased by 11.32%. The positions of both increased, while the number of warehouse receipts decreased [5]. Group 4: Sugar Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on the price of raw sugar, which is expected to maintain a bottom - shock pattern. The domestic market demand is weak, and the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. However, the entry of processed sugar into the market has put pressure on prices. Considering the increase in future imports, the domestic supply - demand situation will gradually ease. It is recommended to maintain a short - bias strategy after the price rebounds, with the pressure reference range of 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Indicators**: The price of the "sugar 2601" contract decreased by 0.07%, the "sugar 2509" contract decreased by 0.26%, and the ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 1.53%. The 1 - 9 spread increased by 6.18%. The main contract positions decreased by 3.20%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.12%, and the effective forecast decreased by 100% [8]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The spot price in Nanning remained unchanged, while that in Kunming increased by 0.43%. The import price of Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) decreased, and the price difference with Nanning also decreased [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03%, the cumulative sales increased by 23.07%, the cumulative national sales rate increased by 9.70%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 9.56% [8]. Group 5: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The differentiation between the upstream and downstream of the cotton industry has intensified, with the downstream profits, cash flow deteriorating, and the开机 rate decreasing while the finished - product inventory increasing. However, the tight commercial inventory of cotton in the 2024/25 season before the new cotton is listed is difficult to resolve, which still strongly supports the cotton price. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate in a moderately strong range, while it will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market Prices**: The price of the "cotton 2509" contract decreased by 0.18%, the "cotton 2601" contract increased by 0.04%, and the ICE US cotton main contract increased by 0.68%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 50%. The main contract positions decreased by 1.98%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.93%, and the effective forecast increased by 3.24% [9]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The Xinjiang arrival price, CC Index, and FC Index all increased to varying degrees. Some price differences also changed [9]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 9.5%, the industrial inventory decreased by 2.9%, the import volume decreased by 33.3%, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 8.9%. The yarn inventory days increased by 14.1%, and the grey - cloth inventory days increased by 3.2%. The cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, and the clothing and textile retail sales increased by 4.0% [9]. Group 6: Meal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The excellent rate of US soybeans exceeds market expectations, and the market is worried about the impact of tariffs. The futures market remains at the bottom. The Brazilian soybean premium is continuously rising, and the Brazilian soybeans are relatively strong. Currently, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories continue to rise, the开机 rate remains high, and the basis fluctuates at a low level. Although the subsequent supply is expected to maintain a high arrival volume, the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, and the basis decline space is limited. The soybean meal main contract has returned above the 20 - day moving average, and with the stabilization of US soybeans and the increase in premiums, the domestic futures market may have further upward space. It is recommended to operate with a cautious long - bias [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures and Spot Data**: For soybean meal, the spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the futures price of M2509 decreased by 0.47%, and the basis increased by 8.64%. For rapeseed meal, the spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.39%, the futures price of RM2509 decreased by 0.15%, and the basis increased by 12.84%. For soybeans, the spot price in Harbin remained unchanged, the futures price of the soybean - one main contract increased by 0.44%, and the basis decreased by 10.53%. The basis of the soybean - two main contract increased by 39.13% [11]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The soybean meal cross - period spread decreased by 27.59%, the rapeseed meal cross - period spread decreased by 3.38%, the oil - meal ratio increased slightly, and the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased [11].

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【聚烯烃与纯苯及苯乙烯期货行情及市场分析】今日，聚烯烃期货震荡偏弱。LLDPE09合约收7284元/ 吨，跌0.25%，持仓减11185手；PP09合约收7067元/吨，跌0.13%，持仓减2340手。现货价格也偏弱整 理，国内LLDPE市场主流价7150 - 7600元/吨，PP市场窄幅偏弱调整。 供给上，装置检修集中，供应压 力稍缓。截至7月10日当周，PE开工率74.68%，环比降2.20%；PP开工率77.42%，环比升0.01%。需求 处于季节性淡季，表现疲软，多行业开工率持平或下降。 库存方面，2025 - 07 - 14，两油库存80万吨， 较前一环比增7.5万吨。截至7月11日当周，PE贸易库存和PP社会贸易库存均有增加。 成本端，OPEC + 增产利空油价，但夏季出行高峰需求增加，油价小幅反弹。聚烯烃供需宽松，成本有支撑，预计短期震 荡调整，可观望或轻仓滚动逢高做空。 今日，纯苯期货冲高回落，小幅收跌，BZ2603合约收6189元/ 吨，跌0.79%，持仓减1278手；苯乙烯小幅上涨，EB08合约收7478元/吨，涨0.16%，持仓 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non-US regions shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weakening actual demand", and the spot contradiction is gradually resolved. The copper price may return to macro trading in the next stage, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt the copper price. The main contract should focus on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported by supply tightness expectations, but the high - capacity operation and market surplus situation remain. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 2,950 - 3,250 this week. For aluminum, the current price is high, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro uncertainties, the price of the main contract is expected to face pressure in the short term, with a reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 this week [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The subsequent weak demand will continue to suppress price increases. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract operating between 19,400 - 20,200 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to remain loose, but the increase in domestic mine production in June fell short of expectations, providing price support. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, while the demand has weakened marginally. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is maintained, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, and the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support for refined nickel has loosened, and the medium - term supply is expected to remain loose, restricting the upside of prices. The short - term disk is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. In the short term, the macro situation is volatile. It is recommended to hold existing short positions from previous highs and pay attention to US tariff changes [14]. Stainless Steel - There are macro uncertainties, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The low - level ferronickel price weakens cost support, the supply - side production cuts fall short of expectations, and the overall demand is weak. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals still face pressure, and the surplus may increase. The disk is in a game between sentiment and fundamentals. The short - term disk is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract reference range of 63,000 - 68,000, but there is still downward pressure in the medium term [20]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped to 78,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 116.4 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum dropped to 20,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 70 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 20,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped to 22,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11%. The import profit and loss improved by 200.42 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel dropped to 121,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin dropped to 266,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The import profit and loss decreased by 605.76 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased to 12,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39%. The spot - futures price difference increased by 45 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased to 64,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41%. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) decreased by 1,300 yuan/ton [20]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30%. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22%. In May, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 250,500 tons [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, an increase of 1.49%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 255,000 tons, a decrease of 2.30%. In May, the un - wrought aluminum alloy ingot import volume was 97,000 tons, an increase of 11.75% [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50%. In May, the refined zinc import volume was 26,700 tons, a decrease of 5.36% [8]. - **Nickel**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% [11]. - **Tin**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39%. The SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April (43 companies), the 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83%. In May, the stainless steel import volume was 125,100 tons, a decrease of 12.00% [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34%. The lithium carbonate demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15%. In May, the lithium carbonate import volume was 21,146 tons, a decrease of 25.37% [20]. Spread - **Copper**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 90 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 70 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton [11]. - **Tin**: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 340 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 150 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 170 yuan/ton, and the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2508 - 2509 spread remained unchanged, and the 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 120 yuan/ton [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - On July 14, equity indices and CGB futures declined, while commodity futures showed a relatively balanced performance with new energy metals leading the gains [12][15]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term price increase is driven by supply speculation, and in the long run, the surplus logic remains. It is recommended to wait for inventory to rise and price to rebound before short - selling [19][24]. - Crude oil's production increase negative impact is being digested, and under the pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, it is expected to fluctuate. The rebound space is limited by the inventory build - up expectation [27][31]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to macro sentiment and inventory build - up rhythm. In the medium - and long - term, there are concerns about consumption, and a high - level short - selling strategy is advisable [33][36]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 14, equity indices and CGB futures declined. Among commodity futures, new energy metals led the gains. The top three gainers were lithium carbonate, silicon metal, and crude oil, while the top three decliners were Chinese jujube, aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy [12][13][15]. 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Lithium Carbonate - On July 14, lithium carbonate rose 3.7% to 66480 yuan/ton. The price increase is due to supply speculation under improved fundamentals, with weak supply - demand drive. In the long run, the surplus logic remains. Short - term upstream - downstream game is intense, and warehouse receipts have decreased rapidly. It is recommended to avoid risks and short - sell at a high level after inventory rises and price rebounds [19][23]. - Market attention to the photovoltaic industry's "anti - involution" and supply - side reform has increased, and lithium carbonate has followed the upward trend. The "Yichun Mines Approval Problem" news had no impact on production. Supply - demand fundamentals have not changed much, and warehouse receipt volume is the key. Supply has increased, but imports may decline in July - August. Demand growth was high from January to June, and the July off - season impact is limited. Social inventory is accumulating, and warehouse receipt inventory has decreased in July, but may recover in August. Policy changes include domestic "anti - involution" sentiment and the US "Big Beautiful Act" affecting demand [20][22][24]. 1.2.2 Crude Oil - On July 14, crude oil rose 2.6% to 527.5 yuan/barrel. The negative impact of production increase is being digested, and inventory build - up is limited. Under the pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, it is expected to fluctuate. The rebound space is limited by the inventory build - up expectation. Refinery operating rates are high during the peak demand season, but wait for refinery gross profit and operating rate to decline and inventory to accumulate [27][30][31]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Aluminum - On July 14, aluminum fell 1.4% to 20415 yuan/ton. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate due to macro sentiment and inventory build - up rhythm. In the medium - and long - term, there are concerns about consumption. China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased in June, and downstream industry average operating rate decreased slightly this week. Short - term anti - involution expectation supports the price, but fundamentals show marginal weakening, and the subsequent price depends on real consumption [33][34][36]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - China's goods trade import and export in the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 2.9%. Exports were 13 trillion yuan, up 7.2%, and imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, down 2.7%. In June, import and export growth rates were positive and rising [39]. - China will implement zero - tariff treatment for 53 African countries having diplomatic relations with it. Since December 1 last year, China has given zero - tariff treatment to all least - developed countries having diplomatic relations with it, and imports from these countries achieved double - digit growth in the first half of this year [39]. - China - US trade decreased by 9.3% YoY in the first half of the year. Affected by the US "reciprocal tariffs", it changed from growth in Q1 to decline in Q2. Recent Geneva and London talks have achieved progress, and both sides are implementing the London Framework outcomes [39][40]. 2.2 Industry News - The increment of China's social financing scale from January to June was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans to the real economy increased by 12.74 trillion yuan, corporate bond net financing was 1.15 trillion yuan, and government bond net financing was 7.66 trillion yuan [40]. - It is reasonable for small and medium - sized banks to appropriately increase bond holdings within the supervision - permitted scope, but they need to balance investment returns and risk - taking [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives investment outlooks for individual energy and chemical products, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "oscillating strongly", etc. For example, the outlook for crude oil is "oscillating weakly", and for pure benzene is "oscillating strongly" [17][18]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market is currently in an oscillating pattern. Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors and US - Russia relations, and the prices of downstream chemical products are influenced by factors such as cost support, supply - demand relationships, and device maintenance [1][2]. - In the short - term, investors can base on the positive or negative basis to try trading strategies of buying strong and selling weak. For example, during the contract roll - over period from late July to early August, this strategy can be considered [2]. - Different chemical products have different price trends and influencing factors. For instance, ethylene glycol rebounds due to low inventory and device maintenance; asphalt shows strong performance due to limited production and inventory reduction; while high - sulfur fuel oil faces downward pressure due to increased supply and weakening demand [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - China's exports in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1% year - on - year. The trade surplus in June was $115 billion. In the first half of 2025, China's exports were a key driver of economic growth, but this support may weaken in the second half if global trade tensions rise [8]. - As of July 11, the oil tanker capacity of tankers that had been anchored for at least 7 days decreased by 4.6% compared to July 4. Floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region continued to rise, while that in other regions declined [8]. - The Caspian Pipeline's (CPC) crude oil exports in June increased by 8% compared to May, reaching 6.177 million tons, or 1.63 million barrels per day [8]. - The US President threatened to impose severe economic penalties on Russia if it does not end hostilities with Ukraine. If no agreement is reached within 50 days, a 100% tariff may be imposed [9]. - China's imports of Iranian crude oil in June reached the highest level since March, increasing to over 1.7 million barrels per day, compared to 1.1 million barrels per day in May [9]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On July 15, crude oil prices fell as the US may not impose sanctions on Russia's oil in the short - term but urged Russia to reach an agreement with Ukraine. The current supply - demand of the crude oil market is gradually loosening, and investors are advised to view oil prices with an oscillating - weakly perspective [7][10]. 3.2.2 LPG - The cost - side support for LPG is weakening, and the fundamental situation of supply - excess remains unchanged. The PG futures may oscillate weakly. The supply of LPG and civil gas is still at a relatively high level in the same historical period, and demand is weak during the off - season [14][16]. 3.2.3 Asphalt - The asphalt futures price is under great downward pressure. OPEC + may increase production in August and September, and the supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. The current price of asphalt is over - valued, and the monthly spread may decline as warehouse receipts increase [11][12]. 3.2.4 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price faces downward pressure. OPEC + may continue to increase production, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation is weakening. The supply of heavy oil is increasing, and the three driving factors supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening [12][13]. 3.2.5 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The spread between low - and high - sulfur fuel oils continues to rebound. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the movement of crude oil, but it is facing the situation of increasing supply and falling demand, and may maintain a low - valuation operation [13][15]. 3.2.6 Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up load is decreasing, and the futures price oscillates. The market's expectation of reduced methanol imports has weakened, and the port inventory has increased. The production profit of methanol is still relatively high, and the profit of coastal MTO has been repaired to some extent [28][29]. 3.2.7 Urea - The speculative sentiment for urea is slowing down, and the futures price may be under pressure in the short - term. The supply pressure has been slightly relieved due to temporary device maintenance in high - temperature weather, but overall demand is weak, and the market still faces pressure before inventory reduction [28][29]. 3.2.8 Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol continues to oscillate and consolidate. The port inventory is at a low level, and there are device maintenance plans. The restart of Saudi Arabian devices is not going smoothly, which supports the price [22][23]. 3.2.9 PX - Crude oil is strong, and PX rebounds. In the short - term, the cost - side crude oil is likely to remain at a high level, and the overall PX start - up load in Asia is low. The release of new PTA production capacity is imminent, and the market sentiment is cautiously bullish [17]. 3.2.10 PTA - The cost of PTA is strong, and the price rises. Although the supply of PTA is sufficient next week and downstream polyester factories plan to cut production, the cost - side PX provides strong support, and the decline in PTA prices is expected to be limited [17][18]. 3.2.11 Short - Fiber - The short - fiber processing fee remains stable, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials. The inventory pressure of short - fiber factories is small, and the sales volume of short - fiber has increased periodically, indicating that the profitable processing fee can continue [23][24]. 3.2.12 Bottle Chips - The basis of bottle chips drops rapidly, and the supply - demand pattern is dull. The supply of bottle chips will gradually decrease, and the processing fee is expected to find support between 350 - 400 yuan/ton and then move towards 500 - 600 yuan/ton [25][26]. 3.2.13 PP - The short - term driving force for PP is limited, and it oscillates. The commodity market sentiment has been boosted, but the impact on PP is limited. The raw material support is weakening, and the supply side is still under pressure [32][33]. 3.2.14 Plastic - The maintenance of plastic slightly increases, and it oscillates. The commodity market sentiment has an impact on plastic, but it mainly follows the trend. The raw material support is weakening, and the supply side still has pressure [32]. 3.2.15 Pure Benzene - The port inventory of pure benzene is decreasing, and crude oil is strong, so pure benzene oscillates at a high level. In the short - term, there are positive news from downstream industries, and the macro - sentiment is high. In the medium - term, the situation from July to August is favorable, but the high inventory suppresses the rebound [18]. 3.2.16 Styrene - The port supply of styrene is concentrated, and it is strong. The fundamentals of pure benzene have improved, and although there is no strong support for styrene, there is no obvious drag either. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to weaken, but the inventory in the industry is not high, and the port supply is concentrated [20][21]. 3.2.17 PVC - There is a strong expectation but weak reality for PVC, and it oscillates. Macro - level policies boost market sentiment, but the mid - long - term fundamentals are under pressure due to new production capacity, off - season demand, and limited export growth [35]. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - The spot rebound of caustic soda slows down, and it oscillates. The support comes from positive market sentiment, weak liquid chlorine prices, and low inventory in the caustic soda industry. The pressure comes from the slowdown of spot price increases and pessimistic supply - demand expectations [36][37]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period spreads, basis, and inter - variety spreads for various energy and chemical products. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent crude oil is 1.26, with a change of 0.06; the basis of asphalt is 164, with a change of - 40; the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 322, with a change of - 47 [38][39][40]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists the monitoring of the basis and spreads of various chemical products, it does not provide specific data analysis in the given content. It only mentions the names of products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. [41][52][64].