Report Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings for each industry are provided in the report Core Views - The data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures; market interest rates are consolidating, treasury bonds are rebounding slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [2] - Under the "anti - involution" situation, the supply of finished steel may shrink; the expectation of old - city renovation and shantytown transformation has led to the entry of long - position funds, and the price increase of coke by mainstream coking plants will be implemented this week, driving the black sector to rise sharply [3] - Trump's latest tariff measures have escalated the trade war, and the resurgence of market risk aversion has boosted the gold price; the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased, and this week's CPI data should be monitored; gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] - The spot price of logs is stable, the expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply pressure will ease, and the daily average outbound volume has fallen below 60,000 cubic meters; the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the impact of log futures delivery on log prices should be noted [5] - The production of natural rubber in domestic and foreign producing areas is increasing steadily, and there is still room for the raw material price to decline; port inventories remain high, and the weak fundamentals cannot support the continuous rise of rubber prices [6] - Due to the large arrival volume of soybeans and high - pressure oil extraction by oil mills, the inventories of three major oils are continuously rising; the supply is abundant and it is the off - season for demand, lacking self - driving force; however, palm oil is oscillating strongly due to the popular export, the rising expectation of biodiesel, and the rebound of international crude oil [7] - US tariff policies continue to pressure oil prices, PX is continuously destocking and fluctuates with oil prices; the supply - demand expectation of PTA is weakening and it will follow cost fluctuations in the short term; the raw materials are differentiated, but the supply - demand of MEQ is weakening, and the upside space of the futures price is restricted [8] - The market supply - demand stalemate is obvious; northern livestock farmers are forced to cut prices for promotion due to the pressure of selling livestock, while the south stabilizes the market by adjusting the supply rhythm; weak consumer demand restricts price increases, and the regional price difference is gradually widening; domestic hog prices are expected to maintain small fluctuations [9] Summary by Industry Stock and Bond - Data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures; market interest rates are consolidating, treasury bonds are rebounding slightly, recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [2] Black - Under "anti - involution", finished steel supply may shrink; the expectation of old - city renovation and shantytown transformation has led to long - position funds, and the coke price increase by mainstream coking plants will be implemented this week, driving the black sector to rise sharply [3] Gold - Trump's tariff measures have escalated the trade war, market risk aversion has boosted the gold price; the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased, and this week's CPI data should be monitored; gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] Logs - Spot price is stable, expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, supply pressure eases, daily average outbound volume has fallen below 60,000 cubic meters; fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the impact of log futures delivery on log prices should be noted [5] Rubber - Production in domestic and foreign producing areas is increasing steadily, raw material price has room to decline; port inventories remain high, and weak fundamentals cannot support continuous rise of rubber prices [6] Oils - Due to large soybean arrival and high - pressure oil extraction, inventories of three major oils are rising; supply is abundant and it is the off - season for demand, lacking self - driving force; palm oil is oscillating strongly due to popular export, rising biodiesel expectation, and international crude oil rebound [7] Oil - related Chemicals - US tariff policies pressure oil prices, PX is destocking and fluctuates with oil prices; PTA supply - demand expectation is weakening and follows cost fluctuations in the short term; raw materials are differentiated, but MEQ supply - demand is weakening, and the upside space of the futures price is restricted [8] Livestock - Market supply - demand stalemate is obvious; northern farmers cut prices due to selling pressure, the south stabilizes the market by adjusting supply rhythm; weak consumer demand restricts price increases, regional price difference is widening; domestic hog prices are expected to maintain small fluctuations [9]

香港第一金消息面： 黄金操作建议 昨日周一，克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克的表态明确指出，鉴于美国通胀依然过高，且贸易关税对价格压力的影响存在 持续不确定性，美联储目前没有立即降息的必要。 她在接受福克斯商业频道采访时表示："我们非常接近中性利率水 平，我看到经济具有韧性，运行良好，除非劳动力市场出现实质性疲软，否则我不会认为有必要真正降低（利 率）。" 她强调，鉴于通胀仍旧过高，"我认为我们保持限制性货币政策立场非常重要，以确保我们将通胀降至2%的 目标。" 近几周发表讲话的大多数美联储官员似乎都同意，目前的联邦基金目标利率区间（目前介于4.25%至4.5%之 间）将在本月底保持不变。 1、建议在3330-3340附近考虑做多，止损8美元，目标看3360-3370美金附近 在美联储上个月的会议上，官员们预测今年晚些时候将有两次降息，投资者普遍预计宽松政策将从9月份的会议开 始。 然而，少数美联储官员则倾向于在7月份降息，他们的理由是，特朗普政府激进且不断变化的进口关税上调只会 对通胀产生一次性影响，在制定货币政策时可以忽略。上周，美联储理事沃勒表示："我们的政策过于紧缩，可以考 虑在7月份降低政策利率。"沃勒补充说 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories present a mixed picture, with an increase on July 14 but a decrease in the SHFE inventory compared to last week, remaining neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is trending downwards, suggesting a bearish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players is long and increasing, indicating a bullish sign [2]. - Expectations include a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, geopolitical disturbances, a proposed 50% US copper tariff, and increased market volatility [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of copper's various factors is a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish signals, with complex market expectations influenced by policy, inventory, and geopolitical factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves the co - existence of domestic policy easing and an escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [3]. Spot - Information on spot prices, including the location, mid - price, and price changes, as well as inventory types, totals, and changes, is presented but not fully detailed in the given text [6]. 期现价差 - Not detailed in the provided content Exchange Inventory - Copper inventory on July 14 increased by 900 tons to 109,625 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week [2]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - Not detailed in the provided content Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows detailed data from 2018 - 2024 [20][22].

20250715申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2508 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2508 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 775.58 | 780.34 | 9140.00 | 9185.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 778.98 | 783.48 | 9179.00 | 9225.00 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | -3.40 | -3.14 | -39.00 | -40.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.44% | -0.40% | -0.42% | -0.43% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 62625 | 91191 | 164208 | 206505 | | | | 成交量 | 44116 | 27458 | 218523 | 133459 | | | | 现货升贴水 | 1.8 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic rubber market is experiencing a rebound in sentiment due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and domestic "anti-involution" policies, with natural rubber prices rising to 14,400 yuan per ton as of July 11, an increase of 400 yuan since July 8 [1] - The current price increase is primarily driven by "anti-involution" sentiment, which may continue to boost market sentiment in the short term; however, due to expectations of increased supply both domestically and internationally, and high current inventory levels, the fundamental weakness may prevent sustained price increases [1][2] - The rubber production areas are seeing normal harvesting conditions this year, with improved weather in Hainan and increased output expected from Thailand and Vietnam, contributing to a more relaxed supply outlook [2] Group 2 - In June, the estimated import volume of natural rubber was 481,500 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons month-on-month; meanwhile, domestic inventory levels showed a slight decrease, continuing a trend of shallow declines and deep increases [3] - The demand seasonality is evident, with a notable decline in the operating rate of semi-steel tires, which fell by 3.28 percentage points year-on-year to 75.49% in Q2; some tire manufacturers are planning maintenance or reducing output due to inventory pressures [4] - The foam industry is also experiencing weak demand, with many factories operating at low capacity and cautious raw material procurement due to downgraded consumer sentiment [5] Group 3 - The profit margins in the natural rubber industry are under pressure due to multiple factors including increased supply, weak demand, and rising inventory levels, particularly affecting processors and traders [6] - As of July 10, the theoretical production cost of Hainan's natural rubber was 13,720 yuan, up 280 yuan from the previous week; however, due to weak demand, the high-price procurement sentiment has cooled, leading to a decline in purchase prices and profits [7] - The compression of profit margins is likely to weaken procurement willingness among enterprises, resulting in downward pressure on raw material prices, with the contradiction between lack of cost support and weak demand further pushing the market into narrow fluctuations [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates has been reduced to September/December, and the strengthening of the US dollar may limit the upward space for non - ferrous metal prices [1]. - In the traditional consumption off - season, downstream demand for aluminum is weakening, which may lead to adjustments in aluminum prices. However, due to policy - driven elimination of backward alumina production capacity, alumina prices may still have room to rise [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side factors**: The first - phase 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen has started production, and domestic and Australian (Guinean) bauxite prices have remained flat or declined, which may increase domestic bauxite production and imports in July. Multiple domestic alumina capacity expansion and transformation projects are in progress, and overseas projects such as Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian project and SPIC's Guinean project may increase overseas alumina production in July [2]. - **Cost and price**: The average daily full production cost of domestic alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton. Due to the possible decline in Guinean bauxite prices and policy - driven elimination of backward capacity, alumina prices may still rise. It is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low levels in the short term, paying attention to support levels around 2,900 - 3,000 and resistance levels around 3,300 - 3,500 [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of alumina in Chinese ports and on the SHFE has decreased compared to last week. The continuous accumulation of alumina inventory in Chinese electrolytic aluminum plants has led to a loose supply expectation [11][15]. - **Basis and spread**: The alumina basis and monthly spread are positive but at low levels. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production may increase in July due to capacity transfers and new project startups. Import volume may also increase due to production changes in overseas plants [3][62]. - **Cost and price**: The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,500 yuan/ton. In the off - season, smelting profits remain high, but downstream demand is weakening, and aluminum prices may face adjustment pressure. It is recommended that investors take a callback approach in the short term, paying attention to support and resistance levels for SHFE and LME aluminum contracts [4]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased compared to last week, and the inventory of aluminum rods in various regions has also increased [43][48]. - **Basis and spread**: The SHFE aluminum basis is positive and within a reasonable range, while the monthly spread is positive and at a relatively high level. The LME aluminum (0 - 3) monthly spread is negative and at a relatively high level, and the (3 - 15) monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors pay attention to short - term, light - position, high - selling arbitrage opportunities for SHFE aluminum basis and spreads, and temporarily wait and see for LME aluminum monthly spread arbitrage opportunities [38][41]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side factors**: The production and import of domestic scrap aluminum may increase in July. The production of primary aluminum alloy may increase, while that of recycled aluminum alloy may decrease. The import and export of unforged aluminum alloy may decrease [6][82]. - **Cost and price**: The daily full production cost of domestic primary aluminum alloy is 20,600 yuan/ton, and that of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,000 yuan/ton with negative profits. Due to production losses and increasing inventory, casting aluminum alloy prices may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors try to go short on the main contract at high levels in the short term, paying attention to support levels around 19,500 - 19,700 and resistance levels around 19,900 - 20,000 [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of domestic aluminum alloy has increased, and the raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises may increase while the finished - product inventory may decrease [6][88]. Downstream Processing Enterprises - The capacity utilization rate of China's leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises has decreased compared to last week, affected by the easing of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season [94][96].

●FPG最新市场脱水消息： 1. 上周六，美国总统特朗普称将对进口到美国的欧盟和墨西哥商品征收30%的关税。这震动了市场，将 金价推高至3374美元/盎司的日高点。然而，特朗普最近的声明表明，他对贸易谈判持开放态度，包括 与欧洲的贸易谈判，这给金价带来下行压力。 现货黄金周一(7月14日)一度涨到三周高点，但很快回落，最终收盘下滑。有分析师指出，特朗普对贸 易谈判持开放态度，这令市场风险偏好改善，打击避险资产黄金。美元涨到近三周高点，代表美元计价 的黄金对其他货币持有者来说相对昂贵。黄金走弱的另一个原因是美国国债收益率正在上升。10年期美 国国债上涨一个基点，至4.427%。联邦基金期货市场显示，交易员预期年底前美联储将降息50个基 点，首度降息可能落在9月。特朗普持续表示希望看到降息，因此这对黄金来说终究是很不错的支撑。 2. 美元走强也在给金价带来压力。追踪美元兑一篮子六种货币表现的美元指数(DXY)上涨0.25%，至 98.10。 3. 美国总统特朗普表示，他愿意进行更多贸易谈判，包括与欧盟的谈判。不过特朗普坚称，他威胁要征 收新关税的信件对美国贸易伙伴来说是"交易"。 4. 投资者严阵以待美国周二公布 ...

至于数据对市场的具体影响，LPL Financial首席固定收益策略师劳伦斯·吉勒姆指出，市场参与者对CPI 数据的反应，将取决于商品领域中通胀压力的广度。"债券市场存在风险，如果我们确实看到通胀重新 加速，我们可能会因为错误的原因看到更高的收益率……如果美债收益率在通胀压力重新加速的背景下 走高，那么被定价的降息幅度可能会减少，这也可能渗透到股市……"吉勒姆说。 不过，他同时表示，"我认为，从通胀互换和盈亏平衡通胀率的走势来看，债券市场并不真正预期通胀 会重新加速。" 新华财经北京7月15日电美国国债收益率周一（7月14日）普遍上涨1BP左右，10年期美债收益率报 4.425%，2年期报3.896%。美国总统特朗普上周末宣布将自8月1日起对从欧盟、墨西哥进口的商品分别 征收30%关税，再度引发对通胀担忧。市场焦急等待将于周二公布的美国6月CPI数据。 分析师认为，在经历了几个月的低通胀之后，美国消费者6月份经历的物价涨幅可能略有加快，原因是 企业开始将与关税相关的进口商品成本上升转嫁给消费者。机构对经济学家的调查显示，预计不包括波 动较大的食品和能源成本在内的商品和服务价格将在6月上涨0.3%，达5个月来最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries, particularly focusing on tariff negotiations and their implications for various industries and markets [1][5]. Group 1: Tariff and Trade Negotiations - U.S. President Trump announced plans to negotiate tariffs with multiple countries, including the EU, and has already sent letters to over 20 national leaders regarding new tariffs set to take effect on August 1 [1]. - A 50% tariff on all copper imports to the U.S. was also announced, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [1]. Group 2: Key Commodities - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures have rebounded due to summer maintenance leading to supply contraction, with inventory decreasing by 970,000 heavy boxes to 57.34 million heavy boxes [2][15]. Soda ash inventory increased by 33,000 tons to 1.864 million tons, indicating a need for time to digest current stock levels [2][15]. - **Stock Indices**: U.S. stock indices saw slight fluctuations with a market turnover of 1.48 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 2.082 billion yuan to 1.862586 trillion yuan, suggesting a growing interest in long-term investments [3][9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons, while inventory rose by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons, indicating a mixed market sentiment with potential price fluctuations ahead [4][21]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - China's total goods trade for the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 2.7% [6]. - The People's Bank of China reported a 7.1% year-on-year increase in RMB loans, with the total social financing scale growing by 8.9% [8]. Group 4: Market Trends - **Bond Market**: The yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 1.668%, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan to maintain liquidity [10]. - **Energy Sector**: Oil prices are under pressure due to uncertainties surrounding global tariffs and production increases from OPEC, which may affect demand forecasts [11]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA report indicated a reduction in U.S. soybean planting area, which may impact future prices and market dynamics [25].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a stronger US CPI is likely to exert downward pressure on gold prices, while potential pullbacks may present buying opportunities [1][5][6]. Market Performance - On July 14, international gold opened high at $3363.64 per ounce, reached a three-week high of $3374.55, but ultimately closed at $3343.27, down $14.49 or 0.43% from the previous close [1]. - The trading range during the day was between $3353 and $3375, with a daily fluctuation of $33.66 [1]. Economic Indicators - The market is anticipating the release of the US June CPI data, which is expected to show an increase, indicating stronger inflation and potentially reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, thereby negatively impacting gold prices [5][6]. - The average tariff rate between China and the US has increased significantly from 3% to 145% from 2018 to 2025, contributing to ongoing market uncertainties [5]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold prices are in a high-level consolidation phase, with potential risks of a decline to $3000 or $2600 if key support levels are breached [8]. - Current trends remain above the 5-month moving average, suggesting a sustained bullish outlook unless this support is broken [8]. - The weekly chart shows gold prices maintaining above the mid-band, with indicators suggesting a potential for a pullback but still presenting buying opportunities near support levels [10]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels include support at $3339 or $3330 and resistance at $3355 or $3365 for gold, while silver has support at $38.00 or $37.65 and resistance at $38.60 or $39.00 [11].