扫码进入基本功专栏 持有人首次认证有礼啦！只要在4月30日前持有中泰资管产品并持有至今且的新朋友，长按识别下方 二维码前往认证，即可获得 影音会员月卡 一份 本材料不构成投资建议，观点具有时效性。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不 保证基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。投资有风险，基金过往业绩不代表其未来表现。基金管理人管理的基金 的业绩不构成对其他基金业绩表现的保证。投资者投资基金时应认真阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书、基金产 品资料概要等法律文件。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的"买者自负"原则，请投资者根据自身的风险承受能力 选择适合自己的基金产品。基金有风险，投资须谨慎。 基本功的基,就是基金的基。 做好投资、买对基金, 从夯实投资基金的基本功开始。 1分钟GET一个知识点, 起步更轻松。 ELR+ 可以怎么加? "+"的部分包括多种资产 和策略,常见的有以下几种。 固收+股票,这是较为常见的搭配,根据股票性质的 不同,还可分为 高股息策略. 红利策略、周期股策略 等。也可参与股票 打新,赚取新股上市溢价。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year, public - offering equity funds have outperformed the market. Leading equity active funds are a mix of focused, rotational, and gambling types in terms of industries, with mid - growth and mid - high valuation styles. Their returns mainly come from stock - picking and trading abilities, and they are more concentrated in the consumer sector. Leading equity quantitative funds may deviate towards large - cap and value, with less under - allocation of finance and less over - allocation of machinery and electronics compared to other public - offering quantitative funds [1][14][33]. - In June 2025, the equity market's sentiment will continue to recover, and investors should take advantage of trading opportunities; the 10Y Treasury bond rate may decline by 9BP to 1.60%; gold should be continuously allocated; the real - estate supply - side pressure will rise; foreign capital will continue to flow in slightly, and the Indian equity market will have a phased rebound, but its current allocation value is relatively limited [2][35]. - In terms of market style, it is recommended to focus on the expected growth style, and the institutional attention to small - cap stocks is accelerating [4][91]. - For industry allocation, the high - probability and high - odds strategy recommends non - ferrous metals, electronics, power equipment and new energy, computers, machinery, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery; the industry clearance and reversal strategy recommends non - ferrous metals, electronics, and communications [5][107]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Year's Characteristics of Leading - Performance Funds 3.1.1 Equity Active Funds - As of May 30, 2025, public - offering equity active funds have achieved good results. The average absolute return is 2.51%, the median is 1.13%, and the proportion of positive absolute returns is 57.30%. The average excess return relative to their respective benchmarks is 2.45%, the median is 1.49%, and the proportion of positive excess returns is 61.19%. The average information ratio is 2.67%, and the average information ratio of the top 20 is 26.1% [10][12]. - The top 20 equity active funds with an information ratio and established for more than one year are a mix of focused, rotational, and gambling types in industries, mainly with mid - growth and mid - high valuation styles, and their scale is generally below 1 billion. There are three main models: focused on consumption - mid - growth and high - valuation, industry rotation - mid - growth and mid - valuation, and industry gambling - mid - growth and high - valuation [14][15]. - The returns of these three models mainly come from stock - picking and trading contributions. Style and industry returns contribute relatively little to the total return. The leading - performance equity active funds' returns mainly come from stock - picking and trading abilities [19]. - In terms of industry distribution, these funds are mainly concentrated in the consumer sector. Focused funds are concentrated in medicine and food and beverage; rotational funds are relatively diversified, mainly in consumer and manufacturing sectors; gambling funds are concentrated in food and beverage, basic chemicals, and commerce and retail [21]. 3.1.2 Equity Quantitative Funds - In terms of style exposure relative to the benchmark, the top 20 public - offering quantitative funds in terms of information ratio may deviate towards large - cap and value. They have less deviation in small - cap and greater deviation in non - linear small - cap, indicating an increase in large - cap stocks. They also have higher exposure to undervaluation factors, showing a preference for value, and obvious deviations in low - liquidity and low - volatility [29]. - In terms of industry exposure, these top 20 funds have less under - allocation of finance and less over - allocation of machinery and electronics compared to other public - offering quantitative funds. They also have over - allocation in construction and food and beverage [31]. 3.1.3 Summary This year, public - offering equity funds have outperformed the market. Leading equity active funds are a mix of different types in industries, with mid - growth and mid - high valuation styles, and their returns mainly come from stock - picking and trading abilities, and are concentrated in the consumer sector. Leading equity quantitative funds may deviate towards large - cap and value, with different industry exposure characteristics [33]. 3.2 Quantitative Views on Major Asset Classes 3.2.1 Equity: Sentiment Continues to Recover, Seize Trading Opportunities in June - In May, the overall sentiment recovered, with a slight decline in the financial sector and a steady recovery in the industrial sector. The full - A net profit in Q2 may further improve [39]. - Credit expansion has weakened, and the structure still needs improvement. It is estimated that the new social financing in May 2025 will be about 2.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.27 trillion yuan year - on - year. Government bonds will continue to support the growth of social financing [45]. - The market will remain in a volatile pattern in June. Investors can increase excess returns by seizing trading opportunities. The market is in a volatile pattern, and the overall market center may gradually rise, but the pace may be slow. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has a healthy microstructure, and investors can buy low and sell high [48]. 3.2.2 Interest Rates: The 10Y Treasury Bond Rate May Decline by 9BP to 1.60% in June - Since 2023, the out - of - sample direction prediction of the 10Y Treasury bond rate has been correct for 20 months, with a winning rate of 69%. - Economic growth, inflation, and short - term interest rate factors are declining, while the debt - leverage factor has slightly increased. Overall, the 10Y Treasury bond rate may continue to decline in June [35]. 3.2.3 Gold: Continue to Allocate - Since 2023, the out - of - sample direction prediction of gold has been correct for 22 months, with a winning rate of 76%. - Various factors jointly drive the continued rise of gold. The US economic factor is declining, the fiscal factor is rising but at a slower pace, the employment factor is recovering, and the external debt factor is increasing [62]. - The slowdown in the upward rate of the fiscal factor is due to the reduction in defense spending, while overall consumption and investment expenditures have not declined [67]. 3.2.4 Real Estate: Supply - Side Pressure Rises - As of May 31, 2025, the three - month moving average of the real - estate industry pressure index is 0.569, indicating an increase in overall industry pressure. The supply - side pressure has increased due to the weak performance at the start - up end, while the demand - side pressure is basically the same as last month [72]. 3.2.5 Overseas: Foreign Capital Continues to Flow in Slightly, and Indian Equity Has a Phased Rebound - In May, there was a small inflow of foreign capital into the Indian equity market, with a net FPI inflow of $2.344 billion. The NIFTY 50 index rose 1.71% in May. - India is currently in a stage of foreign - capital outflow and valuation downward - adjustment due to lower - than - expected profit growth, and its current allocation value is relatively limited [80][88]. 3.3 Quantitative Views on Binary Styles 3.3.1 Comprehensive View on Styles: Recommend Focusing on the Expected Growth Style - The advantage gap of actual - growth assets continues to recover, and it is recommended to maintain the allocation of actual - growth strategies. The advantage gap of expected - growth assets continues to recover, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of expected - growth strategies. - The ROE advantage gap is declining marginally, with low crowding, and the profitability strategy is not recommended although it has short - term performance. The crowding of high - dividend assets remains high, and there is a crowding risk for pure dividend assets. - Currently, both Δg and Δgf are expanding, and the expected growth sector is more worthy of attention. It is recommended to focus on the growth style in June [91]. 3.3.2 Supplementary Observation on Styles: Institutional Attention to Small - Cap Stocks is Accelerating - The downward trend of the US Treasury bond rate is unlikely to reverse. Although there may still be short - term opportunities for dividends, it is expected to have reached an inflection point in the long run. - In May, the institutional attention to small - cap stocks relative to large - cap stocks continued to accelerate. The crowding of the small - cap style increased slightly in May and remains at a high level. There is no significant difference between large - cap and small - cap stocks in June based on the seasonal effect since 2010 [95][100][105]. 3.4 Quantitative Views on Industry Allocation 3.4.1 Industry Recommendation: High - Probability and High - Odds Strategy - This strategy recommends non - ferrous metals, electronics, power equipment and new energy, computers, machinery, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. Since 2024, the absolute return is 12.59%, and the excess return relative to the equal - weighted benchmark of CITIC first - level industries is 0.97% [5][110][114]. 3.4.2 Industry Recommendation: Industry Clearance and Reversal Strategy - This strategy recommends non - ferrous metals, electronics, and communications. It defines the state where both industry demand and supply are declining as the industry clearance state, and the state where the demand side recovers after clearance, the supply side has not turned around, and the concentration declines as the end - of - clearance reversal state [116][124].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF Fund (513820) has shown resilience with a slight decline of 0.59% while experiencing net inflows for three consecutive days, highlighting its attractiveness in the market [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF Fund (513820) has distributed dividends for 11 consecutive times, leading in the number of distributions among Hong Kong dividend ETFs [1] - The fund's underlying index, the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index, boasts a dividend yield of over 8% in the past 12 months, ranking it among the top in its category [5][6] - The fund's total return index has demonstrated strong long-term performance, with cumulative returns significantly higher than other similar dividend indices since 2017, indicating robust reinvestment effects [9] Group 2: Index Characteristics - The underlying index of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF Fund (513820) is classified as a pure dividend index, with stock selection and weighting based solely on dividend yield [6][4] - The index maintains a balanced industry distribution, with significant allocations in traditional high-dividend sectors such as banking (26.3%) and oil and petrochemicals (9.9%), while also diversifying into transportation (19.8%) and telecommunications (9.3%) [7] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The fund employs an innovative "monthly evaluation of dividends" strategy, allowing for up to 12 distributions per year, which enhances its appeal to investors seeking predictable income [14] - The fund's valuation advantage is highlighted by its lower valuation compared to A-shares, providing a more substantial margin of safety for investors [14] - The fund focuses on high-quality, high-dividend leading stocks, with a total of 30 constituent stocks, ensuring a concentrated yet diversified investment approach [14]

以下文章来源于时代财经APP ，作者周梦梅 港股市场也变得热闹起来。蜜雪集团、泡泡玛特、老铺黄金"新消费三股"股价暴涨，成 为资本市场现象级盛宴；阿里、腾讯、小米等为代表的"中国科技七姐妹"强势崛起；宁 德时代赴港募资约3 5 3亿港元，成为年内全球最大规模IPO，掀起港股融资热浪。 不少投资者在这轮港股盛宴中吃到"肉"。"打恒瑞医药这只新股，中签400股，单只股票 赚了6 4 1 3元港币。"投资者王淼称。5月2 3日，恒瑞医药在港股挂牌上市，恒瑞医药首日 涨幅达到2 5 . 2 0%。近来，港股新股上市行情火爆，宁德时代和沪上阿姨在上市首日分别 收涨16.43%和4 0 . 0 3% 这背后是，2 0 2 5年二季度以来，全球宏观叙事主线出现变化，"东稳西荡" 成为资本市场 新故事，市场对美国经济增长、资产价格和美元的信心在衰退，对中国资产价格和货币 的信心在走强，围绕着中国的科技创新和产业升级，市场正在重新定价中国核心资产。 而汇集了众多高新企业的港股市场，则成为全球资本配置中国资产的战略要地。 投资有风险，交易需谨慎 。 作者 | 周梦梅 编辑 | 张常旺 来源 | 时代财经APP (ID: tf-a ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 05 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3376.20 | 0.42 | | 深证成指 | 10144.58 | 0.87 | | 创业板指 | 2024.93 | 1.11 | | 科创 50 | 986.11 | 0.45 | | 北证 50 | 1438.73 | 1.10 | | 沪深 300 | 3868.74 | 0.43 | A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 650328 | 507744 | 11.95 | 1.24 | | 深证成指 | 215963 | 182906 | 19.92 | 2.10 | | 创业板指 | 57287 | 45189 | 26.71 | 3.71 | | 科创 50 | 33966 | 22168 | 53.36 | 4.09 | | 北证 50 | ...

Investment Focus - The report emphasizes the strategy of investing in stocks with high dividends and improved fundamentals, particularly in the essential consumer sector [1][6] - Key stocks recommended for investment include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili, all rated as "Outperform" [1] Industry Overview - In May 2025, six out of eight tracked industries maintained positive growth, with the restaurant sector growing by 3.7%, beer by 3.3%, and soft drinks by 3.1% [3][8] - The industries experiencing negative growth include mass-market and above mid-range liquor, with declines of 13.0% and 2.5% respectively [3][8] Price Trends - In May, the price of Moutai continued to decline, while high-end products like Wuliangye stabilized [4] - The overall price trend in the liquor market showed more declines than increases, particularly in the mid-range segment [4][10] Cost Analysis - The cost index for soft drinks, seasonings, and other categories showed slight increases, while beer and instant noodles experienced declines [4] - Packaging material prices have decreased significantly compared to last year, with aluminum can prices up by 12.01% [4] Fund Flows - As of the end of May, net inflows into Hong Kong Stock Connect amounted to 41.99 billion yuan, with the essential consumer sector's market capitalization share at 5.65% [5] - The food additives sector saw an increase in market share, while the dairy sector experienced a slight decrease [5] Valuation Metrics - The PE historical percentile for A-share food and beverage stocks was 19% (21.5x), a decrease from the previous month [5] - H-share essential consumer sector PE historical percentile increased to 34% (18.8x), reflecting a rise in valuation [5] Recommendations - The report suggests waiting for opportunities or buying high-dividend stocks, as the current fundamentals lack catalysts for growth [6] - Key stocks with high dividend yields include Master Kong, Uni-President, and China Feihe, among others [6]

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing new characteristics driven by high dividend assets and high-tech assets, leading to a slow bull market as a new normal [1][2] - High dividend strategies are becoming a significant driving force in the A-share market, attracting long-term investors due to stable cash flow and relatively low valuations [1][2] - High-tech companies are opening up vast imaginative spaces in the A-share market with their innovative capabilities and growth potential, becoming new engines for global economic growth [1][2] High Dividend Assets - High dividend companies are appealing to investors seeking stable returns, indicating strong profitability and good cash flow [1][2] - The increasing recognition of value investment is expected to enhance overall market valuations as more funds flow into high dividend sectors [1][2] - The stability provided by high dividend stocks supports market sentiment and lays a solid foundation for long-term market health [1][2] High-Tech Companies - High-tech companies are continuously launching innovative products and services, meeting the demand for high-quality and high-performance offerings [2] - The rise of high-tech companies has shifted investment logic, with investors focusing more on innovation capabilities and long-term growth prospects [2] - This shift in investment philosophy provides high-tech companies with more financing opportunities and development space, further energizing the A-share market [2] Interaction Between High Dividend and High-Tech - High dividend and high-tech sectors are not isolated but exhibit a spiral integration, where stable earnings from high dividend companies enhance market confidence [2] - The stability from high dividend stocks creates a favorable environment for high-risk, high-reward investments in high-tech fields [2] - The rapid development of high-tech companies brings new growth points and investment opportunities, attracting more capital into the A-share market, which in turn boosts high dividend stock valuations [2] Future Outlook - Future market hotspots are likely to emerge from the interplay between high-tech and high dividend sectors [3] - Investors are advised to balance their asset allocation between high-growth high-tech companies and stable high dividend stocks to achieve steady asset appreciation in the slow bull market [3]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 有朋友问，红利指数的长期表现如何？ 过去几年红利指数上涨了不少，是什么推动的呢？ 未来这种上涨还能持续么？ 针对大家的这些疑问，螺丝钉也通过直播课，进行了讲解。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0523 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 近几年，红利指数表现强势 红利指数在2018年5星级的时候也在低估。 随后的2019-2021年，是成长风格牛市。 当时成长风格指数上涨超150%，A股中证全指上涨超80%，但红利指数只是略有上涨，跑输 大盘比较多。 2022-2024年，红利指数表现比较出色，这几年整体上涨。 指数基金跟踪指数。 过去几年，一些红利基金净值上涨了50%-80%不等。 红利指数基金的四大收益来源 如果用一个公式，总结股票指数基金投资的收益来源，那就是： 指数基金净值=估值×盈利+分红。 指数背后公司的盈利长期上涨，我们可以获得盈利上涨的收益。 这也是指数基金收益的根本性的来源。 而分红，也是指数基金的一个收益率来源。 有的指数基金，股息率比较低，分红不是影响收益的关键。 比如创业板指数。 但是对于红利、价值 ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：KAIZEN投资之道 来源：雪球 2025年二季度以来 ， A股市场呈现结构性分化 ， 银行股与消费赛道的 " 新经济代表 " 泡泡玛 特均出现显著上涨 。 银行股受益于政策红利 、 险资配置需求及低估值修复逻辑 ， 而泡泡玛特 则凭借Z世代消费趋势 、 全球化扩张及IP价值爆发成为资本市场的焦点 。 两者看似分属不同赛 道 ， 但均反映了当前市场对 " 确定性 " 与 " 成长性 " 的双重追逐 。 以下结合最新数据与底层 逻辑 ， 分析其投资机会与未来走势 。 01 银行股上涨的底层逻辑与投资逻辑 1. 低利率环境下的 " 股息锚定效应 当前十年期国债收益率仅1.73% ， 而上市银行平均股息率达5.08% （ 以银行AH指数为例 ） ， 显著高于无风险利率 。 在 " 资产荒 " 背景下 ， 险资 、 社保等长期资金加速增配银行股 ， 2025年一季度中央汇金通过ETF间接增持银行股超10亿份 ， 平安人寿等险资机构连续加仓招商 银行H股至11% ， 凸显银行股的 " 现金奶牛 " 属性 。 2. 政策红利与风险 ...

Group 1 - The proportion and influence of insurance funds in the asset management industry are increasing, with total asset management net value in China expected to reach approximately 161.1 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, a year-on-year growth of 11.8%, while insurance funds are projected to be around 33.3 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 18.1%, significantly higher than the industry average [1] - As of May 31, there are 1,388 combination-type insurance asset management products that disclosed nearly one year of annualized returns, with 1,222 products achieving positive returns, the highest annualized return being 62.9398% and the lowest at -45.833%. Over 75% of fixed income, equity, and mixed products have shown positive returns, indicating the strong asset allocation capabilities and stable operational levels of insurance asset management institutions [1] Group 2 - In the fixed income product category, out of 960 products that disclosed data, 900 achieved positive returns, with an average annualized return of 2.76% and a median of 2.34%. In the equity product category, among 240 disclosed products, 180 achieved positive returns, with an average return of 7.42% and a median of 5.57%. The performance of equity products is closely related to market trends, with the A-share market showing active rotation in technology and consumer sectors this year, providing structural opportunities for insurance fund investments [2] - Mixed products demonstrated a balanced advantage, with 143 out of 188 products achieving positive returns, an average return of 5.21% and a median of 3.38% [2] Group 3 - According to a recent survey by the China Insurance Asset Management Association, 50% of insurance asset management institutions and 53.57% of insurance companies hold an optimistic view of the A-share market for 2025, an increase from the second half of last year. Additionally, 52.78% of institutions and 51.19% of companies believe the A-share market will show a fluctuating upward trend this year [3] - The survey indicates that insurance institutions are optimistic about sectors such as electronics, banking, computers, public utilities, home appliances, food and beverages, communications, and national defense, focusing on new technologies, dividend assets, and high-dividend investments. Ongoing favorable policies to facilitate the entry of insurance funds and other long-term capital into the market have strengthened insurance institutions' interest and confidence in stock allocation [3]