Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key economic policies and initiatives announced during the press conference of the National People's Congress, focusing on consumption stimulation, debt management, and financial reforms to support economic growth. Group 1: Consumption and Economic Growth - The National Development and Reform Commission will soon implement a special action plan to boost consumption [3] - The contribution rate of China's economic growth to the world remains around 30%, with new industries and business models accounting for over 18% of the total economic value [4] - The private economy's export share increased by 1.4 percentage points to 64.7% last year, with private investment in manufacturing and infrastructure growing by 10.8% and 5.8% respectively [3][4] Group 2: Debt Management - Local government debt risks have been effectively alleviated, with a total of 2.96 trillion yuan in replacement bonds issued as of March 5 [6] - The average interest rate on last year's 2 trillion yuan replacement bonds decreased by over 2.5 percentage points, leading to an estimated reduction of over 200 billion yuan in interest expenses [6] Group 3: Financial Policies - The central government plans to issue 500 billion yuan in special government bonds to support state-owned banks in replenishing core tier-one capital [7] - The central government's transfer payments to local governments will increase by 8.4% to 10.34 trillion yuan this year, focusing on general transfer payments to enhance local financial capacity [8] - The People's Bank of China will consider reducing reserve requirements and interest rates based on domestic and international economic conditions [13][14] Group 4: Capital Market Reforms - The China Securities Regulatory Commission aims to accelerate capital market reforms and enhance the inclusiveness of multi-tiered markets [19] - The commission has revised over 50 regulatory rules since the introduction of the new "National Nine Articles," aiming to improve regulatory efficiency [19][20] - The total market value of public funds holding A-shares has increased from 5.1 trillion yuan at the beginning of last year to over 6 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 17.4% [21][22]

坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用，保持汇率弹性。同时，强化预期引导，坚决防范汇率超调 风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定。 同时，综合运用公开市场操作、中期借贷便利、再贷款再贴现、政策利率等货币政策工具， 保持市场流动性的充裕，降低银行负债成本，持续推动社会综合融资成本下降，使社会融资 规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 3月6日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在十四届全国人大三次会议经济主题记者会上表示， 今 年，我们将根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，择机降准降息。 目前金融机构 存款准备金率平均为6.6%，还有下行空间，中央银行向商业银行提供的结构性货币政策工 具资金利率也有下行空间。 来源：第一财经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to adjust monetary policy, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions, based on domestic and international economic conditions [2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions is currently 6.6%, indicating room for further reductions [2]. - The PBOC aims to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on supporting key strategic areas and weak links in the economy [4]. Group 2: Financial Market Regulation - The PBOC will enhance the regulation of market behaviors that may hinder the transmission of monetary policy, ensuring effective implementation of interest rate policies [3]. - There is a commitment to strengthen the coordination between financial policies and industrial policies, ensuring targeted support while maintaining control [3]. Group 3: Support for Innovation and Capital Markets - The PBOC plans to expand the scale of re-loans for technological innovation and transformation, emphasizing support for strategic sectors [4]. - Collaboration with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is being explored to establish a regular framework to support capital market development [4].

潘功胜表示，中国人民银行将实施好适度宽松的货币政策。在结构上，加大对重点战略领域和薄弱环节予 以支持，进一步扩大科技创新和技术改造再贷款规模。 3月6日（星期四）下午，十四届全国人大三次会议举行记者会，邀请国家发展和改革委员会主 任郑栅洁、财政部部长蓝佛安、商务部部长王文涛、中国人民银行行长潘功胜、中国证券监督管 理委员会主席吴清，就发展改革、财政预算、商务、金融证券等相关问题回答中外记者提问。 潘功胜表示，与证监会探索常态化的制度安排，支持资本市场发展。 3月6日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在十四届全国人大三次会议经济主题记者会上表示，去年以来货币政策 逆周期调节效果比较明显，货币政策取向是一种对状态的描述，今年将根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市 场情况，择机降准降息，目前存款准备金率还有下行空间。 潘功胜还表示，加强金融政策与产业政策的协同，在金融资源政策支持方向上做到有保有控。 潘功胜表示，在政策传导上，中国人民银行将进一步完善利率调控机制，持续强化利率政策执行和监督， 对一些不合理的容易削减货币政策传导的市场行为，加强规范，推动落实银行补充资本金措施，畅通利率 传导机制。 对于人民币汇率，潘功胜表示，我们在 ...

央行公开市场开展141亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有891亿元逆回购到期。净回笼750亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金价格回落，DR001下行至1.45%。 在懂的行情里搏杀，你是猎手；在不懂的行情里搏杀，你就是猎物。 什么行情是看得懂的行情呢？就是那些可识别、有明显特征的情景或走势，这需要我们自己去总结、运用和修正，最后融会贯通、知行合一。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20250106— 股债都不听话（+股市继续下跌+资金面均衡宽松=中下)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率明显下行。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 01. 06) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.53 | 21 | | 2. 30 | 0 | 67619.89 | 6227. 17 ...

很多人都在关注周末有没有好消息提振市场，央行倒是出来说了几句，说会根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，择机降准降息。另外还说了会 利用互换便利和回购再贷款等工具，维护资本市场稳定。要实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大货币财政协同配合。 除了画饼ing的降准降息，没有新东西，都是之前听过的，并且没有具体数字。以a股目前的市场情绪，我不认为会对这些话买账。 要说周一有啥好消息，大概就是过去三个交易日跌的够狠，在技术上已然形成一定程度的乖离和超卖，所以周一有日内技术性反弹的需求，可以尝试套用 暴跌次日公式。公式内容我昨晚有解释，这里就不复述了。 具体应用就是假如明天盘中再出现恐慌性的快速急跌，会是一个分时线上的低点，做t也好，短线抄底也好，都有操作空间。需要注意的是这类日内反弹 的窗口期很短，随着五日线快速下压，周二周三就未必安全。 明天周一，又是交易日了。大部分的股民现在一想到a股开盘心里就会觉得压抑，开年两个交易日连续暴击，血流成河的个股表现，尤其是周五区区1.27 万亿的成交量却砸出了-4%的中位数，这一切都让股民觉得心目中期许的牛市正在渐行渐远。 3、周五的离岸人民币汇率已经跌至7.35，在岸人民币也报价7 ...