本周行情综述 铜：本周 LME 铜价+0.13%到 9660.50 美元/吨，沪铜-0.03%到 7.80 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周进口铜精矿加工费 周度指数跌至-44.78 美元/吨。截至本周四，全国主流地区铜库存较周一下降 0.18 万吨至 14.59 万吨，较上周四上升 0.11 万吨，较去年同期的 39.94 万吨低 25.25 万吨。冶炼端，2025 年 5 月中国进口阳极铜 6.94 万吨，环比减少 6.48%， 同比减少 30.56%。消费端，据 SMM，本周国内主要精铜杆企业周度开工率环比上升至 75.82%，环比上升 2.50 个百分 点，较预期值低 0.77 个百分点，同比上升 5.67 个百分点；本周漆包线行业机台开机率环比下降 0.2 个百分点至 81.9%，周订单量环比微涨 0.51%；本周国内黄铜棒生产企业开工率持续走低，较上周回落 0.83 个百分点至 51.18%。 铝：本周 LME 铝价+2.34%到 2561.50 美元/吨，沪铝+0.12%到 2.05 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周四国内主流消费地 电解铝锭库存 44.9 万吨，较本周一下降 0.9 万吨， ...

以下文章来源于霞光社 ，作者张楠茜 霞光社 . 赋能企业全球化 本文来自微信公众号： 霞光社 ，作者：张楠茜，编辑：李小天，题图来自：AI生成 2025年夏天，或许是赴美留学的中国学子及家庭，最为挣扎和焦虑的开学季。 当地时间5月27日，特朗普政府宣布暂停新的学生签证面谈预约，同时考虑扩 大对国际学生社交媒体 审查范围。 刘熙正在准备去美国读博，开学进度就这样突然被按下暂停键。"消息出来后的几天刷了刷，连可预 约的界面都没有。"刘熙说，再耗下去可能无法顺利入学。 而在此之前已经获得签证的黎丽，形容心情也"像过山车一样刺激"。她是哈佛大学今年新录取的研究 生。不久前，特朗普政府对哈佛大学发出招收国际生的禁令，虽然很快就被最高法院暂时遏制，一场 风波却在黎丽和父母心中留下疑问——新加坡或香港，会是比哈佛的性价比更高的选择吗？ 黎丽的纠结，是很多中国留学生心态的共同缩影。有数据显示，中国赴美留学人数近几年正在大幅下 降，如今印度已经超越中国，成为美国留学人数最多的国家。 "一切都悬而未决。"是动荡局势中的人们说得最多的一句话。没人知道，悬在头顶的达摩克利斯之剑 何时会落下，能做的只有小心谨慎地等待观望着。 而在当地 ...

刘熙正在准备去美国读博，开学进度就这样突然被按下暂停键。"消息出来后的几天刷了刷，连可预约 的界面都没有。"刘熙说，再耗下去可能无法顺利入学。 2025年夏天，或许是赴美留学的中国学子及家庭，最为挣扎和焦虑的开学季。 当地时间5月27日，特朗普政府宣布暂停新的学生签证面谈预约，同时考虑扩大对国际学生社交媒体审 查范围。 而在此之前已经获得签证的黎丽，形容心情也"像过山车一样刺激"。她是哈佛大学今年新录取的研究 生。不久前，特朗普政府对哈佛大学发出招收国际生的禁令，虽然很快就被最高法院暂时遏制，一场风 波却在黎丽和父母心中留下疑问——新加坡或香港，会是比哈佛的性价比更高的选择吗？ 黎丽的纠结，是很多中国留学生心态的共同缩影。有数据显示，中国赴美留学人数近几年正在大幅下 降，如今印度已经超越中国，成为美国留学人数最多的国家。 "一切都悬而未决。"是动荡局势中的人们说得最多的一句话。没人知道，悬在头顶的达摩克利斯之剑何 时会落下，能做的只有小心谨慎地等待观望着。 而在当地时间6月18日，惯于朝令夕改的特朗普政府恢复了办理外国学生签证，但要求访问签证办理者 的社交媒体账户。美国国务院表示，领事官员将密切关注对美国政府 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has paused interest rate cuts for four consecutive meetings, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% [1] - There is a division among Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate cuts, with some supporting two cuts this year while others oppose them [2] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may restart rate cuts in September, influenced by the impact of tariffs on macroeconomic data [1][2] Group 2: Foreign Investment in China - The profits of foreign-invested industrial enterprises in China are projected to increase from 1.6 trillion yuan to 1.8 trillion yuan from 2019 to 2024, with profit margins leading the national average [3] - High-tech sectors are expected to account for 43.7% of foreign investment in manufacturing by 2024, with foreign enterprises nearing 50% of high-tech product exports [3] - China's policies to stabilize foreign investment are aimed at enhancing confidence and attracting quality resources, which will invigorate domestic economic growth [4] Group 3: National Subsidy Policies - A total of 138 billion yuan in central funding will be distributed in batches in the third and fourth quarters to support consumption upgrades, despite some regions temporarily halting subsidy programs [5] - The "old for new" consumption policy has expanded to include more product categories, with the special national bond funding increasing from 150 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan this year [5] - The suspension of subsidies may lead to a decline in consumer spending, as seen during the "618" shopping festival [6] Group 4: Market Trends and Company Developments - The secondary market for Labubu collectibles has seen a significant price drop, with average transaction prices halving from 2279.7 yuan to 1181.3 yuan due to pre-sale strategies [7] - Texas Instruments announced a historic investment plan of over 60 billion USD to build seven chip factories, focusing on analog and embedded processing chips [9][10] - Audi has reversed its plan to stop developing and selling internal combustion engine vehicles, acknowledging market differences in the transition to electric vehicles [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government plans to significantly reduce the issuance of ultra-long-term Japanese government bonds (JGB) by approximately 10% compared to the original plan, aiming to alleviate market concerns about oversupply following the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) reduction in bond purchases [1][2][3] Group 1: Government Bond Issuance Plans - The revised bond issuance plan will lower the total issuance from 172.3 trillion yen to 171.8 trillion yen, a reduction of about 500 billion yen (approximately 3.44 billion USD) [2] - The issuance of 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year ultra-long-term JGBs will be significantly cut, while short-term bills and savings-type bonds for retail investors will see a slight increase [2][5] - Specific reductions include a 900 billion yen cut for 20-year bonds to 11.1 trillion yen, a 900 billion yen cut for 30-year bonds to 8.7 trillion yen, and a 500 billion yen cut for 40-year bonds to 2.5 trillion yen [5][6] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The announcement has led to a notable strengthening of the Japanese bond market, with the latest five-year JGB auction recording the highest subscription ratio in two years [7] - Short-term bonds, particularly the 2-year JGBs, have seen increased demand, with their issuance set to rise by 600 billion yen [6][7] - The market's expectation of reduced issuance of long-term bonds is viewed positively, although there are concerns about the potential decline in the government's credit quality due to increased reliance on short-term debt [7]

Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is expected to pressure precious metals in the short term, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions providing some structural support for gold prices [1][2] - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by factors such as ongoing trade frictions, rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, and a contraction in dollar credit [2] - The recent geopolitical conflicts have led to a temporary spike in gold prices, but the sustainability of this increase is questioned due to the lack of significant physical demand [3] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June and signaled a hawkish outlook, with the dot plot indicating two potential rate cuts this year, although seven officials support no cuts [1] - Inflation data continues to fall below expectations, paving the way for potential rate cuts, with the probability of a September rate cut increasing according to the CME FedWatch tool [2] - The dollar index has risen significantly, impacting the valuation of precious metals and creating a counterbalance to the geopolitical risks [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Reactions - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is at a critical stage, with negotiations between European nations and Iran facing uncertainty, which may influence gold prices [1] - Analysts from Julius Baer Research note that the market's reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict has been muted, attributing initial price increases to speculative trading rather than genuine safe-haven demand [3] - The Gold Forecast highlights that while geopolitical risks can drive short-term price spikes, true safe-haven demand may quickly give way to profit-taking and technical selling [3] Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Precious Metals - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to structural factors such as ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases as countries seek to reduce reliance on the dollar [2][3] - The interplay between geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policy changes, and evolving trade policies will shape the broader economic landscape and influence precious metal prices [3]

2025 年 6 月 19 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铜： | | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | | 棕榈油： | | 19 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 20 | | 棉花： | | 20 | | 白糖： | | 21 | | 苹果： | | 22 | | 生猪： | | 23 | | 鸡蛋： | | 23 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 24 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 26 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘表现分化，30 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 120.900 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.01%报 109.140 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.01%报 106.280 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.01%报 102.544 元。 公开市场方面，央行公开市场开展 ...

来自天南海北的企业家朋友们因第二届出海全球峰会再次齐聚"亚洲学术殿堂"——新加坡国立大学。 上午9点，特邀嘉宾主持美讯创始人兼CEO彭家荣（Chris Pereira）将登台主持开场，一场关于全球化未来的深度对话即将启幕。 点击按钮▲预约直播 今天9:00，"生而全球·共融共建"第二届出海全球峰会将在新加坡国立大学正式开 幕，千余位企业出海掌舵人再聚狮城，与吴晓波、王辉耀、秦朔、津上俊哉、杨宇 东、张华荣等嘉宾，共同探索中企出海从"产能迁徙"到"文 明共生"的 跃迁之路 。 无法亲临峰会的朋友，请锁定吴晓波频道视频号直播间，云端直击精彩现场。 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号： 吴晓波频道） 当马克思在《共产党宣言》中首次系统勾勒全球化图景时，他或许未曾预见：两个世纪后，中国企业正以"共融共建"的态度，将这场文明实验推向 新高度。 本届峰会遵循高水平、国际化、实效性的办会理念，共设置2日主论坛、1场深度晚宴以及1场中国企业家商务考察行程。 主论坛围绕"逆全球化与新全球化""全球供应链的重构与创新""多生态赋能中资全球化""国际化即本土化"四大核心议题展开深度探讨，共安排17 场主题演讲、2场全球链接宣讲以及1场高峰 ...

2025 年 6 月 18 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | 日 水 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 国债: | | 4 | | 股指: | | 4 | | 贵金属: | . | C ST | | 螺纹、热卷: | | C ST | | 铁矿石: | | ( | | | 焦煤焦炭: . | | | 铁合金: | | 1 | | 原油: | | ו ← | | 燃料油: | | 8 | | 合成橡胶: | | C | | 天然橡胶: | | C | | PVC: | .. | | | 尿素: | .. | 10 | | 对二甲苯 PX: | ... 11 | | | PTA: | . | | | 乙二醇: | . | | | 短纤: | .. | | | 瓶片: | .. | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 纸浆: | .. | | | 碳酸锂: ...

Core Insights - In 2025, the trend of Chinese companies going global has evolved from a strategic choice for some to a nationwide topic, with significant presence in Southeast Asia, Europe, Africa, and Mexico, becoming a new growth engine for China's economy [1] - The characteristics of this global expansion include collective, hasty, and purposeful actions, with many companies developing their capabilities during the process [1][2] - The return of Trump to power introduces uncertainties, as the U.S. imposes tariffs on Chinese products, complicating the manufacturing return to the U.S. due to high labor costs and structural degradation [1] Group 1 - The lack of a chain leader poses a significant challenge for Chinese companies in the globalization 2.0 era, contrasting with the early overseas expansions of Japan and South Korea [2] - Japanese companies' successful overseas strategies provide valuable lessons for China, emphasizing the importance of a complete business system and support from trade organizations [2] - Companies must assess their suitability for going global, with a focus on achieving over 30% in overseas revenue and production capacity to be considered truly global [2] Group 2 - Going global is no longer a temporary measure but a long-term development cycle, with Chinese companies needing to seize opportunities and address challenges to become genuine global enterprises [3] - The distinction between genuine and superficial global expansion lies in the ability to establish a long-term presence overseas, requiring breakthroughs in geographical, cognitive, and value chain spaces [2]