Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the mixed signals in price trends across various sectors in June, influenced by geopolitical factors and domestic demand dynamics, with particular attention to the fluctuations in industrial raw material prices and real estate markets [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industrial Raw Materials and Energy Prices - In June, the BPI index recorded 857 points, a slight increase of 0.1% compared to the end of May, with energy prices down by 0.1% and non-ferrous metal prices up by 1.9% month-on-month [1][4]. - The geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East, have caused fluctuations in energy prices, while the supply-demand structure tightening and a decline in the US dollar index contributed to the rise in non-ferrous metal prices [4]. Group 2: Domestic Demand and Commodity Prices - Domestic pricing for coking coal and rebar futures saw significant month-on-month increases of 23.4% and 2.5%, respectively, indicating a positive trend in the domestic demand for these commodities [5][6]. - The South China Industrial Products Index showed a month-on-month increase of 4.2%, with a narrowing year-on-year decline compared to May [6]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - The second-hand housing price index in major cities showed mixed results, with Shanghai's prices stabilizing. The indices for Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen recorded changes of -0.7%, 0.8%, -0.8%, and -0.04% respectively compared to the last week of May [6][8]. - The year-to-date high points for these cities were noted earlier in the year, indicating a potential stabilization in the real estate market [6]. Group 4: Emerging Industries and Price Trends - The photovoltaic industry composite index continued to decline, down 4.6% month-on-month, primarily due to the performance of battery cells, while lithium carbonate futures prices increased by 5.3% [7][8]. - The DXI index, which reflects the semiconductor (DRAM) market's performance, surged by 29.4%, indicating strong demand in this sector [7][8]. Group 5: Shipping and Export Prices - In the shipping sector, most prices increased, with the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) rising by 22.5% month-on-month. Specific routes, such as Shanghai to Los Angeles and Shanghai to New York, saw increases of 0.1% and 10.3%, respectively [9][10]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) also continued its upward trend, increasing by 5.0% month-on-month, reflecting a recovery in shipping rates [11]. Group 6: Food Prices and Market Dynamics - Food prices exhibited a mixed performance, with the average wholesale price of pork declining by 2.3% month-on-month, while the prices of 28 key vegetables rose by 0.5% [11]. - The average wholesale prices of seven monitored fruits fell by 5.5%, indicating a weak overall trend in food prices [11]. Group 7: Summary and Future Outlook - Overall, June's price signals were mixed, with geopolitical factors influencing oil prices and domestic demand driving certain commodity prices higher. The focus remains on the marginal changes in prices in sectors such as steel, coal, cement, photovoltaic, and automotive in the future [3][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Canada is expected to reach a record high in wheat planting area by 2025, while the canola planting area is projected to decline, leading to potential changes in market supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 2 - The anticipated increase in wheat planting area may influence market prices and trends, necessitating close monitoring of the agricultural commodities market [1] - The decline in canola planting area could impact the overall supply chain and pricing strategies for canola products, affecting both producers and consumers [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][5][8] Core Views - The steel market is facing concerns about the off - season, with the black market shifting towards fundamentals. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of steel is not significant, and future attention should be paid to the Middle East geopolitical conflicts, inventory, and consumption [1]. - The iron ore market is experiencing weak demand in the off - season and is likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3]. - The coking coal and coke market has eased market sentiment and is operating in a volatile manner. The supply - demand situation of coke has improved, while the price of coking coal is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. - The动力煤 market shows a contraction in supply at the end of the month, and the coal prices in the production areas continue to be strong. In the short term, the price is expected to rise slightly, while the long - term supply pattern remains loose [8]. Summary by Related Categories Steel - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 2,976 yuan/ton, and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,098 yuan/ton. The national building materials turnover was 93,500 tons. The black market is turning to fundamentals, and the supply - demand contradiction of building materials is gradually accumulating. The profit of hot - rolled coils is better than that of building materials, and although exports have slightly declined, they remain high in the short term [1]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategies are proposed for single - side, inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore continued to weaken, with the main 2509 contract closing at 702.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.43%. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 1.077 million tons, a 32.47% increase. The forward spot trading volume was 670,000 tons, a 39.09% decrease. The global shipment increased slightly, iron - making water production increased slightly, and the total iron ore inventory increased slightly [3]. - **Strategy**: A single - side strategy of weak and volatile is recommended, and no strategies are proposed for other trading types [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures are operating in a volatile manner. The fourth - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and the market's expectation of price stability has increased. Many coking coal mines have stopped or reduced production, and the replenishment of coking and steel enterprises is insufficient. The price of imported Mongolian coal is relatively stable [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to operate in a volatile manner, and no strategies are proposed for other trading types [7]. 动力煤 - **Market Analysis**: The coal prices in the main production areas continue to be strong. At the end of the month, a few coal mines will complete their production capacity and reduce production. The procurement demand for metallurgy and chemical industry is stable. The port inventory has decreased significantly, and the import coal market is stable [8]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategies are proposed [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业弱稳运行，钢矿延续震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.33%日跌幅，量增仓稳。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应小幅回升，而需求延续季节性弱势，供需格局并未好转，淡 季钢价承压运行，相对利好则是库存偏低，现实矛盾不大，预计走势维 持震荡寻底态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.26%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，热卷供需格局迎来好转，但供应维持高位，且需求韧性存疑，基本 面改善持续性存疑，上行驱动不强，预计走势维持震荡运行态势，重点 关注需求情况。 铁矿石：主力期价低位震荡，录得 0.43%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶 段，矿石需求韧性表现尚可，给予矿价支撑，但供应维持高位，且需求 增量空间有限，矿石基本面并未实质性改善，后续矿价延续低位震荡运 行，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：t ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Lithium Carbonate - The recent market sentiment is stable, and the market is mainly in a state of shock. However, there is a lack of actual positive news, and the short - term fundamentals still face pressure. In June, due to the boost in processing output and the increase in lithium extraction from some spodumene, the balance may be in surplus. The short - term market is expected to operate in a weak range, but the profit - to - risk ratio of short - selling is weakening, and the main contract is expected to operate between 56,000 - 62,000 yuan [1]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, but the sentiment in the spot market is low. The cost support for refined nickel has slightly weakened, and the medium - term supply remains loose, restricting the upside space. The short - term fundamentals change little, and the market is expected to adjust through weak - range shock, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 124,000 yuan [2]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals remain weak. The ore end provides some price support, the negotiation range of nickel - iron prices has moved down, the stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. In the short - term, there is still pressure on the fundamentals due to the supply - demand contradiction. The market is expected to operate weakly, with the main contract operating between 12,400 - 13,000 yuan [5]. Tin - The supply - side recovery is slow. In the short - term, tin prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate. However, considering the pessimistic demand outlook, it is advisable to short at around 260,000 - 265,000 yuan based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [7]. Aluminum - For aluminum, the short - term upper limit is around 20,500 yuan, and the price is expected to be around 20,000 yuan with a fluctuating trend. If the actual demand weakens in the third quarter, the price may find support at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan. For alumina, if the ore - end issues do not worsen, smelters may resume production after profit recovery, and the inventory is expected to gradually increase [8]. Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and the downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may remain in a high - level shock pattern. In a pessimistic scenario, zinc prices may decline. It is advisable to short at high levels in the long - term, with the main contract focusing on the support at 21,000 - 21,500 yuan [10]. Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices do not have a clear and smooth trend. The strong fundamentals limit the downward movement of prices, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside space. In the short - term, prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 77,000 - 80,000 yuan [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 28,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 59,170 yuan/ton, down 0.42%; SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 53,170 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The average CIF price of lithium carbonate in China, Japan, and South Korea is 8.05 US dollars/kg, unchanged [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 340 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan from the previous value; the spread between 2507 and 2509 is 600 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan; the spread between 2507 and 2512 is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, a decrease of 2.34% month - on - month; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 51,573 tons, an increase of 2.33%; industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,507 tons, a decrease of 12.41%. The demand for lithium carbonate in May was 93,938 tons, an increase of 4.81% [1]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 120,325 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.42%; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 121,425 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%. The import profit and loss of nickel futures is - 3,234 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.89% [2]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2508 and 2509 is - 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is - 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the spread between 2510 and 2511 is - 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan [2]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in May was 35,350 tons, a decrease of 2.62% month - on - month; the import volume of refined nickel was 8,832 tons, an increase of 8.18%. SHFE inventory decreased by 5.39% week - on - week, and social inventory decreased by 5.24% [2]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot - futures spread is 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.49% [5]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2508 and 2509 is 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spread between 2510 and 2511 is - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [5]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in April was 179.12 million tons, an increase of 0.36%; the production in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 36 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of stainless steel increased by 10.26%, and the export volume decreased by 4.85% [5]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 tin is 264,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%; the price of Yangtze River 1 tin is 264,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%. The LME 0 - 3 premium is - 110 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15.38% [7]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan [7]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The import volume of tin ore in April was 9,861 tons, an increase of 18.48%; the production of SMM refined tin in May was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37%. The import volume of refined tin in April was 1,128 tons, a decrease of 46.31% [7]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%; the average price of alumina in Shandong is 3,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16%. The import profit and loss of aluminum is - 1,138 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [8]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [8]. Fundamental Data - The production of alumina in May was 727.21 million tons, an increase of 2.66%; the production of electrolytic aluminum in May was 372.90 million tons, an increase of 3.41%. The import volume of electrolytic aluminum in April was 25.05 million tons [8]. Zinc Price and Basis - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 21,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95%; the import profit and loss is - 491 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.62 yuan [10]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [10]. Fundamental Data - The production of refined zinc in May was 54.94 million tons, a decrease of 1.08%; the import volume of refined zinc in April was 2.82 million tons, an increase of 2.40%. The export volume of refined zinc in April was 0.25 million tons, an increase of 75.76% [10]. Copper Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 78,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19%; the import profit and loss is - 1,144 yuan/ton, an increase of 254.33 yuan [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of electrolytic copper in May was 113.83 million tons, an increase of 1.12%; the import volume of electrolytic copper in April was 25 million tons, a decrease of 19.06%. The inventory of imported copper concentrates in domestic mainstream ports increased by 8.76% week - on - week [13].

1. Tin Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Supply - side recovery is slow, and short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the weak demand outlook, it is advisable to focus on the supply - side recovery rhythm and adopt a short - selling strategy based on inventory and import data inflection points [1]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.11% to 265,600 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium dropped 13.64% to 950 yuan/ton. LME 0 - 3 premium fell 9.85% to - 82.50 dollars/ton [1]. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss**: Import loss increased by 11.20% to - 10,937.43 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.09 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2506 - 2507 dropped 880.00% to - 390 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: April tin ore imports increased 18.48% to 9,861 tons. SMM refined tin production in May decreased 2.37% to 14,840 tons [1]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF inventory decreased 3.59% to 7,107 tons, and social inventory increased 1.00% to 8,945 tons [1]. 2. Lithium Carbonate Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Short - term fundamentals still face pressure. In June, the balance may be in surplus due to increased processing output and some lithium spodumene lithium extraction increments. The upstream has not seen substantial large - scale production cuts, and the futures price is expected to run weakly, with the main contract referring to the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 60,650 yuan/ton, and the basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) rose 461.54% to 730 yuan/ton [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2507 - 2508 rose to 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, lithium carbonate production decreased 2.34% to 72,080 tons, and demand increased 4.81% to 93,938 tons. Total inventory increased 1.49% to 97,637 tons [2]. 3. Nickel Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In the short term, the fundamentals change little and lack driving forces. The disk is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract referring to the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel dropped 0.33% to 121,500 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium rose 3.09% to 2,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Electrowinning Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP producing electrowon nickel decreased 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton [4]. - **New Energy Material Price**: Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price remained unchanged at 27,815 yuan/ton [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2507 - 2508 remained at - 200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased 2.62% to 35,350 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased 5.39% to 25,616 tons [4]. 4. Stainless Steel Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The disk returns to the fundamental trading logic. In the short term, there is still pressure on the fundamentals due to the supply - demand contradiction. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract referring to the range of 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped 0.39% to 12,750 yuan/ton, and the basis spread decreased 3.90% to 370 yuan/ton [7]. - **Raw Material Price**: The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) dropped 0.59% to 934 yuan/nickel point [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2507 - 2508 rose to - 25 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 0.36% to 179.12 million tons, and 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased 2.04% to 53.08 million tons [7]. 5. Zinc Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side easing cycle. If the growth rate of TC exceeds expectations, it indicates smooth transmission to the refined zinc end. The downstream is in a seasonal off - season, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy in the long - term, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped 0.31% to 22,240 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped to 240 yuan/ton [10]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: Import loss decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 8.33 [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2506 - 2507 dropped to 195 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: May refined zinc production decreased 1.08% to 54.94 million tons. Galvanizing开工率 increased to 60.06% [10]. - **Inventory**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased 2.77% to 7.71 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.78% to 13.1 million tons [10]. 6. Aluminum Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: For alumina, the short - term futures price has limited downward adjustment space, and the medium - term reference cash cost is 2,700 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, short - term prices are supported, but there is pressure in Q3, with the lowest support at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.39% to 20,730 yuan/ton, and the premium was - 210 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: May alumina production increased 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased 3.41% to 372.90 million tons [13]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 8.73% to 46.00 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.67% to 35.3 million tons [13]. 7. Copper Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In the context of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices will fluctuate in the short - term. The "rush - to - export" demand overdrafts subsequent demand, and there is uncertainty in US copper import tariff policies. The main contract refers to the range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped 0.15% to 78,955 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped to 35 yuan/ton [14]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2506 - 2507 rose to 340 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: May electrolytic copper production increased 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and electrolytic copper imports in April decreased 19.06% to 25.00 million tons [14]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased 2.69% to 14.48 million tons, and SHFE inventory decreased 5.08% to 10.19 million tons [14].

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月16日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 狱跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 265600 | 265300 | 300 | 0.11% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 950 | 1100 | -150 | -13.64% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 266100 | 265800 | 300 | 0.11% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -82.50 | -75.10 | -7.40 | -9.85% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 那值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口密亏 | -10937.43 | -9835.62 | -1101.81 | -11.20% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.09 | 8. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oil and Fat Industry - The overall trend of the oil and fat market is complex. The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil have shown different degrees of changes. The basis of palm oil has increased significantly, and the import profit of palm oil has also improved. The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, import costs, and cross - period spreads [1]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market is supported by supply tightening and the wheat purchase policy, and the futures market is running strongly. In the long term, the supply is tight, imports and substitutes are decreasing, and the breeding consumption is increasing, which supports the upward movement of corn prices. However, the downstream deep - processing industry is in a continuous loss state, which restricts the replenishment enthusiasm [4]. Sugar Industry - The global sugar supply is tending to be loose, which puts pressure on raw sugar. The domestic sugar market follows the foreign market to weaken, but the high sales rate and low inventory in the domestic market support the price. Considering the future pressure of imported sugar arrival, the sugar price is expected to maintain a volatile and weak pattern [7]. Meal Industry - The Sino - US economic and trade talks have increased the support for US soybeans, but the overall planting progress of new crops is relatively fast, and there is still uncertainty about whether the expected reduction in production can be realized. The domestic soybean arrival volume, inventory, and soybean meal inventory are increasing rapidly, and the basis is continuously weak. However, the increase in US soybeans and the rebound in Brazilian premiums support the domestic soybean meal trend. It is expected that the soybean meal will continue to be volatile and strong, but investors should be cautious about chasing up [9]. Pig Industry - The spot price of live pigs maintains a volatile structure. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the demand is still weak due to the hot weather. Although there is still a certain profit in the breeding industry, the market capacity expansion is cautious, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the market will maintain a volatile structure [11]. Cotton Industry - The downstream of the cotton industry is weak, with the finished product inventory gradually rising and the start - up rate stable but decreasing. The cotton spot is better than the downstream, and there are still concerns about the tight inventory in the near - term spot period. However, the new cotton supply is expected to be good, and the output is expected to increase steadily. The Zhengzhou cotton futures still face some pressure, and the domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [13]. Egg Industry - In June, the inventory of laying hens will reach the highest level in the past five years, increasing the egg supply pressure. The super - strong plum rain season this year further weakens the off - season demand. The contradiction between supply and demand in the egg market is expected to reach a peak in the past five years, and the egg price is expected to have weak rebound or continue to decline [14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8140 yuan/ton, the futures price of Y2509 decreased by 2 yuan to 7434 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 2 yuan to 706 yuan/ton [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong remained at 8600 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2509 decreased by 38 yuan to 7998 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 38 yuan to 602 yuan/ton, the import cost decreased by 73.7 yuan to 8568.4 yuan/ton, and the import profit increased by 36 yuan to - 570 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 30 yuan to 9400 yuan/ton, the futures price of O1509 decreased by 8 yuan to 8932 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 38 yuan to 468 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil cross - period spread (09 - 01) decreased by 6 yuan to 60 yuan, the palm oil cross - period spread (09 - 01) decreased by 18 yuan to 36 yuan, and the rapeseed oil cross - period spread (09 - 01) increased by 1 yuan to 142 yuan [1]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2507 increased by 22 yuan to 2379 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 8 yuan to 1, the 7 - 9 spread increased by 3 yuan to - 25 yuan, the import profit increased by 22 yuan to 524 yuan, and the position increased by 14834 lots to 1901515 lots [4]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2507 increased by 24 yuan to 2711 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 6 yuan to 9, the 7 - 9 spread increased by 7 yuan to - 64 yuan, and the spread between starch and corn increased by 2 yuan to 332 yuan [4]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of sugar 2601 decreased by 10 yuan to 5580 yuan/ton, the futures price of sugar 2509 decreased by 17 yuan to 5734 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 9 spread increased by 7 yuan to - 137 yuan [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged, the basis in Nanning increased by 17 yuan to 363 yuan, and the basis in Kunming increased by 17 yuan to 183 yuan [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative sugar production in the country increased by 11.63% to 1110.72 million tons, the cumulative sales volume increased by 26.07% to 574.65 million tons, and the industrial inventory decreased by 8.20% to 420.74 million tons [7]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan to 2880 yuan/ton, the futures price of M2509 increased by 12 yuan to 3031 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 32 yuan to - 151 yuan, and the cross - period spread (09 - 01) increased by 4 yuan to - 37 yuan [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2530 yuan/ton, the futures price of RM2509 increased by 15 yuan to 2629 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 15 yuan to - 99 yuan, and the cross - period spread (09 - 01) increased by 10 yuan to 273 yuan [9]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of domestic soybeans in Harbin remained unchanged at 3960 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean contract increased by 61 yuan to 4199 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 61 yuan to - 239 yuan; the spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3640 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean contract increased by 10 yuan to 3640 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 10 yuan to 0 [9]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of the main live pig contract increased by 50 yuan to 455 yuan/ton, the futures price of live pig 2507 increased by 155 yuan to 13225 yuan/ton, the futures price of live pig 2509 increased by 120 yuan to 13595 yuan/ton, and the 7 - 9 spread decreased by 35 yuan to 370 yuan [11]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in various regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan increased to varying degrees, the daily slaughter volume decreased by 1388 heads to 141441 heads, the self - breeding profit decreased by 1.8 yuan to 34 yuan/head, and the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 36.4 yuan to - 121 yuan/head [11]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of cotton 2509 increased by 25 yuan to 13520 yuan/ton, the futures price of cotton 2601 increased by 5 yuan to 13490 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 20 yuan to 30 yuan, and the position increased by 96 lots to 538557 lots [13]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of Xinjiang 3128B increased by 159 yuan to 14644 yuan/ton, the CC Index 3128B increased by 123 yuan to 14743 yuan/ton, and the basis between 3128B and the 01 contract increased by 134 yuan to 1124 yuan [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 31.86 million tons to 383.40 million tons, the industrial inventory decreased by 2.52 million tons to 92.90 million tons, and the cotton outbound shipment volume increased by 9.86 million tons to 53.46 million tons [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of egg 09 contract decreased by 19 yuan to 3655 yuan/500KG, the futures price of egg 07 contract decreased by 4 yuan to 2837 yuan/500KG, and the 9 - 7 spread decreased by 15 yuan to 837 yuan/500KG [14]. - **Spot Market**: The egg production area price decreased by 0.01 yuan to 2.77 yuan/jin, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 0.06 to 2.33, and the breeding profit decreased by 3.59 yuan to - 27.88 yuan/feather [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall live pig price in the country rebounded slightly today, but the market supply is still relatively abundant, and there is still downward pressure on prices in the short - term. The futures market showed a significant rebound today, but in the long - term, due to high production capacity, the supply pressure remains high, and the price increase is difficult. The inter - monthly spread of the futures market is expected to move downward [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Content Spot Price - Today, the spot prices in various regions showed different degrees of change. For example, the price in Henan increased from 13.91 to 14.13, and in Anhui it rose from 14.00 to 14.24. The average price remained unchanged at 13.74 [4]. Futures Price - Futures prices generally showed an upward trend. For example, LH07 increased from 13070 to 13225, and LH09 rose from 13475 to 13595 [4]. Sow/Piglet Price - Piglet prices decreased from 481 to 465, and sow prices dropped from 1626 to 1621 [4]. Spot Breeding Profit - The self - breeding and self - raising profit decreased from 35.65 to 33.83, and the profit from purchasing piglets decreased from - 84.37 to - 120.80 [4]. Slaughter End - The slaughter volume decreased from 142829 to 141441 [4]. Size Pig Price Difference - The price difference between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increased from 0.29 to 0.31, while the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs decreased from 0.08 to 0.05 [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly in a volatile operation - Arbitrage: LH79 reverse spread - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [7]

2025.6.9-6.13 电解铝 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 大区间震荡，6月中下旬偏承压。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 6月云南地区电力储备充足，电解铝供应预计仍稳中有增，需求虽有政策宽松 预期升温+中美元首通话释放缓和信号，但暂时对需求提振作用仍有待观察。 2 暂观望为宜。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 本周美国经济活动放缓叠加国际贸易摩擦风险，铝价短期承压震荡概率较大；铝合金因传统季节性淡季特征逐步显 现并深入，海内外订单均有缩量，导致市场交投整体清淡。 数据来自：WIND、钢联、长城期货交易咨询部 端午前后一周沪铝2507合约看19800-20500区间整理，观望 或短波段交易为宜。 n 本周策略建议 未来一周沪铝2507合约波动区间看19600-20200。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 正常购销即可 【重要产业环节价格变化】 | 项目 | | 上周 | 本周 | 上月同期 | 上年同期 | 周环比 | 月环比 | 年环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铝土矿SI2-3%几内亚（美元/干吨 ...