Group 1: Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: "Shanghai Lead May Face Adjustment" [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2: Core View - The supply of primary and recycled lead is increasing, but the peak - season demand has not started yet. The supply - demand situation of lead is weakening marginally. With the loosening of waste battery costs, the pressure on high lead prices is increasing, and lead prices may face adjustment. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further improvement in demand later [7] Group 3: Fundamental Changes Processing Fees - In May 2025, China imported 103,900 tons of lead concentrates, a 6% month - on - month decrease. The domestic lead concentrate imports continued to decline month - on - month but remained at a moderately high level. The supply of domestic concentrates became more tense, and the processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates continued to decline at a low level. In July, the domestic monthly processing fee was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan; the imported monthly processing fee was - 60 - - 30 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 70 - - 40 US dollars/dry ton, also remaining flat week - on - week [3] Supply - In May 2025, the electrolytic lead output was 331,200 tons, a 3.53% month - on - month increase and a 14.7% year - on - year increase. In June (regular maintenance season), most enterprises planned to start maintenance after mid - June, and the reduction was obvious in late June. The output of recycled refined lead in May was 223,500 tons, significantly lower than expected, a 36.4% month - on - month decrease and a 16.5% year - on - year decrease. In June, the price of waste batteries rebounded, but the profit of recycled lead enterprises did not improve, and the scale of production reduction of recycled lead was still large. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead in three provinces decreased by 3.78 percentage points to 66.21% week - on - week. In July, some primary lead enterprises resumed production after maintenance, and the operating rate rebounded significantly this week. Last week, the weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 34.62%, a 4.96 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week. Last week, the price of waste batteries increased with the rising lead price, and the profit of recycled lead improved. This week, the price of waste batteries fluctuated slightly downward, and the profit of recycled lead continued to recover. Some recycled lead enterprises were more willing to resume production, and the supply of recycled lead was expected to gradually increase. Recently, the internal - external price ratio fluctuated at a low level, and the lead ingot import window remained closed [4] Consumption - Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces decreased week - on - week. At the end of the year, many large enterprises closed their accounts and reduced or stopped production. The willingness of dealers to take delivery was average during the week. Battery factories actively reduced prices to destock, but the effect was not good. The operating rate of large lead - acid battery enterprises was 63%, slightly lower than the previous week. The inventory of finished batteries was 30 days, and the inventory of raw material lead ingots was 4 days. The operating rate of small and medium - sized battery factories was 60 - 65%, the inventory of finished batteries was 21 days, and the raw material inventory was 4 days. This week, the rainy season ended in many places, and battery enterprises that reduced production at the end of the year resumed production. However, it was currently in the transition period between the off - season and the peak - season, and the peak - season demand had not started yet. Market dealers reported that orders were poor and the willingness to replenish inventory was low [5] Spot and Inventory - As of the week ending June 27, the premium of the domestic lead spot to the active month's contract decreased, and the premium was 35 yuan at the weekend. The discount of the LME lead spot narrowed slightly, and the discount was 22.14 US dollars at the end of last week. As of the week ending June 27, the weekly inventory of LME lead decreased by 10,650 tons to 273,400 tons. Although the inventory decreased significantly from a high level, it was still at an absolute high level in the past five years. The weekly inventory of SHFE lead increased by 638 tons to 51,900 tons. As of June 30, the domestic social inventory was 52,300 tons, and the inventory was gradually accumulating. Currently, the social inventory was at a moderately low level [6] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - Last week, the LME lead inventory decreased significantly from a high level but remained at an absolute high level in the past five years. The spot discount narrowed slightly, and the supply - demand of overseas lead remained relatively loose. In May, the import volume of lead concentrates continued to decline month - on - month but was still higher than the same period in previous years. The monthly processing fees of domestic and foreign lead ores further declined at a low level, and the expectation of tight supply of lead concentrates intensified. In July, many primary lead enterprises resumed production after maintenance. The price of waste batteries loosened, the profit of recycled lead enterprises was recovering, and the willingness of recycled lead enterprises to resume production was high. It was expected that the short - term tight supply situation of lead would ease. This week, the rainy season ended in many places, and battery enterprises that reduced production at the end of the year resumed production. However, it was currently in the transition period between the off - season and the peak - season, and the peak - season demand had not started yet. Market dealers reported that orders were poor and the willingness to replenish inventory was low, and the spot was quoted at a discount. Overall, the supply of primary and recycled lead increased, the peak - season demand had not started yet, the supply - demand situation of lead weakened marginally, and with the loosening of waste battery costs, the pressure on high lead prices increased, and lead prices may face adjustment. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further improvement in demand later [7]

证券研究报告 · 宏观报告 · 宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20250711 房地产对中国经济的影响已明显减弱 ■ 理性看待经济动能转换过程中地产的负增长 ■ 宏观视角:地产投资对经济增长的影响已明显减弱 > 其一,从经济增长的角度,尽管过去几年地产投资维持着 10%的负增 长,但我国经济总量维持着平稳增长,且地产投资对经济增长的影响在 逐步减弱。从直接影响来看,今年一季度我国房地产开发投资累计同比 ） 乐吴让莽 2025年07月11日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书:S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书:S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 刘子博 执业证书:S0600524120014 liuzb(@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《6 月超预期非农令市场降息预期延 后至9月》 2025-07-06 《政府债融资多增或推升 6月社融增 增速录得-9.9%,较去年全年的-10.6%小幅收窄,对经济增长的影响也由 去年全年的-0.9%降至了-0.7%;从间接影响来看,一方面,地产及其拉 动相关行业的增加值占 GDP ...

一、行情回顾 上一交易日，玉米期货主力合约收跌0.09%至2320元/吨。 二、基本面汇总 布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所表示，由于未收割地区天气干燥，上周玉米收获进展迅速，已收获面积占种 植面积的70.4%。阿根廷是全球第三大玉米出口国，预计其2024/25年度玉米产量将达到4900万吨。 建信期货：综上，整体加工需求难有增量，同时小麦及进口玉米持续补充市场供应，市场情绪稍转悲 观，价格小幅回调，但受仓储资金成本持续增加影响或限制跌幅。期货方面，2509合约跟随现货以震荡 回调为主，需要继续关注后期玉米产区天气对新作的影响。 西南期货：国内玉米供需趋向平衡，政策向好，消费延续回暖，主产区陈粮销售收尾，港口库存快速回 归，库存压力减退，玉米底部支撑较强。1-5月玉米进口锐减，进口毛利走高，后续进口或有上量空 间；中储粮玉米网拍持续净销售，进口玉米开始轮出；替代品价差收窄，预计上行面临一定压力，观望 为宜。 美国农业部发布的周度出口销售报告显示，截至2025年7月3日当周，2024/25年度美国玉米净销量为 1262100吨，显著高于上周，较四周均值高出70%。2025/26年度净销售量为888600吨，一周前为94 ...

本报讯 （记者陈潇）7月10日，房地产顾问服务公司莱坊（Knight Frank）发布了2025年第二季度《北 京甲级写字楼市场报告》。 报告指出，第二季度，全市无新项目竣工交付，平均空置率为18.4%，环比微降0.2个百分点；市场需求 有所回暖，净吸纳量达12960平方米，扭转上季度负吸纳态势；全市平均租金跌幅较上季度有所收窄， 下降1.6%至每月每平方米233.1元。 扭转空置率上升趋势 今年上半年，北京甲级写字楼市场新增供应有限，只有一个新项目竣工交付，即中海金融中心1号楼。 原定将于第三季度竣工的齐家园外交办公大楼（暂定名）项目推迟至2026年底竣工，预计2025年下半年 北京甲级写字楼市场无新项目竣工交付。 在此背景下，截至二季度末，全市甲级写字楼空置率环比下降0.2个百分点至18.4%，这一数值与2024年 第四季度持平，成功扭转了第一季度空置率上升的趋势。同时，净吸纳量由负转正，实现12960平方 米，反映市场需求有所回暖。 从行业需求结构来看，高科技行业是上半年的租赁交易主力，占整体交易面积的34%，金融和专业服务 业紧随高科技行业之后，分别贡献了22%和16%的租赁面积。 莱坊董事及上海和北 ...

张永鸽 从业资格号：F0282934 投资咨询证号：Z0011351 张艳雯 从业资格号：F03088843 沥青：需求回暖，供应充足 —20250711 价格：截至7月10日，山东地区市场地炼参考价在3580-3700元/吨，主营参考价在4050-4070元/吨；华东 汽运成交区间参考3670-3850元/吨；华北地区重交沥青参考价至3750-3760元/吨；东北区内主流参考价格在 3850-4080元/吨；华南区内重交沥青参考价3600-3680元/吨；西北区内重交沥青参考价格在3650-4350元/吨。 成本端：美国拟对多国加征较高关税，加剧了市场对需求前景的担忧；此外，市场预计OPEC+在9月仍将维 持较大增产力度，也使得供应过剩的风险忧虑有所升温。 供应：本周西北以及西南地区个别炼厂小幅提产，华南以及山东主力炼厂复产沥青。重交沥青77家企业产 能利用率为32.7%，环比上涨1.0%。沥青周度总产量为56.7万吨，环比下降0.8万吨，降幅1.4%。下周预期江苏 新海有复产计划，但山东个别炼厂持续转产渣油以及华东主营炼厂低负荷生产。 需求：国内沥青企业厂家出货量共39.8万吨，环比增加2.6%，华东和西 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals shows mixed performance, with iron ore futures experiencing a strong upward trend, reaching a high of 770.0 yuan/ton and a gain of 2.07% [1] - Supply is rebounding while iron and steel production is seasonally weakening, leading to increased inventory at ports, which raises the risk of overvaluation for iron ore [1] - The recent increase in iron ore prices is supported by macroeconomic factors, with expectations of continued high-level fluctuations in prices [1] Group 2 - Demand for iron ore remains resilient due to profit-driven raw material needs, despite a current decline in iron and steel production [2] - Global iron ore shipments have decreased recently, primarily due to disruptions in Australian shipments, while port inventory is being depleted rapidly [2] - The short-term macro outlook is strong, with attention on the continued export of steel billets and the positive feedback effect on raw materials [2]

| | ル期現日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年7月11日 | | | 王涛庭 | Z0019938 | | 田和 | | | | | | | 7月10日 | 7月9日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 8170 | 8170 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | Y2509 7944 | 7920 | 24 | 0.30% | | 县差 | Y2509 226 | 250 | -24 | -9.60% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 09 + 210 | 09 +210 | 0 | - | | 仓单 | 22725 | 22826 | -101 | -0.44% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | 7月10日 | 7月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 8670 | 8700 | -30 | -0.34% | | 期价 | P2509 8638 | 8678 | -40 | -0.46% | | 墓差 | P2509 32 | 22 | ...

| 产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | 2025年7月11日 | | | | | | | | | | | 价格及价差 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | SMM铝合金ADC12 | 元/吨 | 20100 | 20000 | 100.0 | 0.50% | 20000 | SMM华东ADC12 | 20100 | 100.0 | 0.50% | 元/吨 | | SMM华南ADC12 | 100.0 | 元/吨 | 20100 | 20000 | 0.50% | SMM西南ADC12 | 20100 | 20000 | 100.0 | 元/吨 | 0.50% | | SMM东北ADC12 | 20100 | 20000 | 100.0 | 0.50% | 元/吨 | 月间价差 | | | | | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 零班日 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号: Z0021658 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/7/11 | 指标 | | 7月10日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | -14 | -7 | 2500 2000 | | ----- 19/20 ----- 20/21 ----- 21/22 ----- 22/23 | | -- 23/24 | - 24/25 | | | 天津 | -74 | -7 | 1500 1000 | | | | | | | | 日照 | -154 | -27 | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | -154 | -7 | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | -500 09/21 | 10/72 11/77 | | 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/25 04/25 0 ...

煤炭ETF跟踪的是中证煤炭指数，该指数由中证指数有限公司编制，从A股市场中选取涉及煤炭开采、 加工及相关业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映煤炭行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数 聚焦于煤炭行业的配置，覆盖了行业内不同规模的企业，具有显著的行业代表性和市场影响力。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国海证券指出，动力煤方面，高温天气加持下，煤炭供需关系延续优化，港口煤炭库存保持去化，港口 煤价继续上涨。生产端，山西地区样本煤矿产能利用率延续收紧；运输端受产地到港发运倒挂影响，市 场发运环比下降。进口煤方面，印尼煤价格优势有所恢复，终端对低卡印尼煤招标增加；澳煤货源偏 紧，报价上涨且回国成本倒挂，进口约束短期依旧存在。需求端，迎峰度夏之际电厂继续补库，高温天 气促进日耗与火电需求陡峭提升，利好动力煤消费和价格提升。炼焦煤方面，本周供应回升，样本煤矿 产能利用率环比提升；进口端，蒙煤市场通关延续低位运行。需求端铁水产量仍处高位，刚需有一定支 撑，焦企对性价比较高的资源适当提库。库存方面，焦煤生产企业库存去化显著。整体来看，炼焦煤供 需格局短期有所改善、煤价有所上涨，但后续在煤矿预期恢复生产与钢材淡季之下，预计焦煤 ...