Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Coke, Coal [1] - Bearish: None - Neutral: Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum, Palladium, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, PTA, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] - Cautious: Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, PTA, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] - Wait - and - See: Polysilicon [1] Core Views - The stock index may continue to rise after short - term shock adjustment, and the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - Copper and aluminum prices are expected to be strong, while alumina prices will fluctuate. Zinc and nickel prices have uncertainties due to policies and fundamentals, and short - term operations should be cautious [1]. - The prices of lithium carbonate, rebar, and other products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment, showing a state of shock or limited upward space [1]. - The prices of agricultural products such as palm oil, cotton, and sugar are affected by supply - demand relationships and market news, with different trends [1]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as policies, supply - demand, and cost, and different products have different trends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index and Bond Futures - Stock Index: After a volume - based breakthrough, it may continue to rise after short - term shock adjustment as the market trading volume remains high [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: With improved market sentiment and tight ore supply, copper prices are expected to remain strong [1]. - Aluminum: Limited industrial drive, but restricted supply and improved macro - sentiment are expected to drive prices higher [1]. - Alumina: There is a large release space on the supply side, but the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Zinc: The cost center is stable, but there is inventory pressure. Although the price has made up for losses due to good macro - sentiment, the upside space is limited [1]. - Nickel: The market's concern about supply has decreased, but policy implementation is uncertain. The price is in high - level shock, and short - term operations should be cautious [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw - material price is rising, and the inventory is decreasing slightly. The price is in high - level shock, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Tin: The price has risen due to good macro - sentiment and supply disturbances, but there is pressure on the fundamentals, and long - term low - position buying is recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks, the Fed's independence crisis, and lower - than - expected CPI have boosted prices, but the price fluctuations are large [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: The macro - environment is favorable, but the fundamentals are not as solid as precious metals. In the short term, they will fluctuate widely, and long - term low - position buying of platinum is recommended [1]. Industrial Metals - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing, while southwest production is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: In the traditional peak season of new - energy vehicles, the demand for energy storage is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the price is in shock [1]. - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: High production and inventory suppress price increases, and the transmission of futures price increases to the spot market is not smooth. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be participated in [1]. - Iron Ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations, and supply may be disturbed by energy - consumption control and anti - involution [1]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The short - term market sentiment is warming, but the medium - term supply is excessive, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity - reduction" expectation continues to ferment, there may be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: After the release of the MPOB report, wait for the opportunity to buy when the origin reduces production and inventory and the biodiesel story unfolds. Short - term waiting is recommended [1]. - Cotton: The market is currently in a state of "with support but no driving force". Future factors such as policies, planting intentions, and weather should be concerned [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: The selling progress has slowed down but is still faster than the same period last year. The port inventory is low, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1]. - Soybean Meal: Affected by the USDA report, the internal market is expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to the soybean auction [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and there are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuela [1]. - Fuel Oil and Bitumen: They follow the trend of crude oil, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. - PTA and Short Fiber: The PX market has risen, and domestic PTA maintains high - level operation. The short - fiber price follows the cost [1]. - Styrene: The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on the overseas market [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, but the cost support is strong, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices [1]. - PVC: The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the market will trade based on fundamentals. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is at a low level [1]. - LPG: The import cost is supported, and the risk premium has increased. The inventory is expected to decrease, and the downstream demand is expected to increase [1]. Others - Container Shipping on the European Route: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the zinc market is experiencing a mixed sentiment, with domestic supply and demand both weak, yet supported by surrounding metal price increases and favorable policies [1][2]. - The overnight London zinc price fluctuated, closing at $3202 per ton, down $12 or 2.05%, with a trading volume of 19,113 lots, an increase of 7,933 lots [1]. - The domestic zinc market is expected to maintain a strong trend due to low processing fees and supportive policies, despite marginal increases in supply that may limit price rebounds [2]. Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment shows that the U.S. December CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with expectations and maintaining market anticipation for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]. - The processing fees for domestic zinc concentrate have generally declined, with northern regions experiencing larger decreases than southern regions, while the import window has opened, leading to increased transactions of imported ore [2]. - The overall market sentiment is influenced by macroeconomic factors and the performance of surrounding metals, with expectations of a short-term increase in zinc prices due to heightened emotional responses in the market [2].

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a short-term weak trend due to multiple pressures from macro sentiment, industrial fundamentals, and capital flows [2] Group 1: Market Performance - Today's Shanghai lead futures showed a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 17,360 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan, a decrease of 0.57% [1] - The latest price for London lead is reported at 2,053 USD, remaining stable [1] - The average price for the ccmn Longjiang comprehensive 1 lead is 17,300 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows a contradiction, with primary lead smelting operating at a relatively high rate, but raw material supply remains tight [2] - Domestic lead concentrate processing fees are running at low levels, and import processing fees are still in a deep negative range [2] - The demand side is experiencing structural differentiation, with traditional consumption entering a seasonal off-peak period and electric bicycle battery orders weakening [3] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Trends - The entire industry chain exhibits a characteristic of "tight raw materials, loose finished products," with lead concentrate inventories at moderate levels while recycled lead raw material inventories are significantly lower than in previous years [3] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend, supported by raw material costs and low inventories, while being pressured by weak demand and capital diversion [3] - The lead market is at a critical stage of supply-demand rebalancing, with short-term oscillation expected [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Palladium, Platinum, Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Coke, BR Rubber, PTA, LPG [1] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, PVC [1] - Neutral: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Iron Ore, Black Metals, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Soybean Oil, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Ethylene Glycol, Asian Styrene, Propylene, Butadiene [1] Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short - term, driven by sufficient market funds and positive macro - fundamentals [1]. - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - Different commodities have different price trends based on their own supply - demand situations, policy factors, and macro - economic conditions [1]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - The stock index broke through strongly with heavy volume last week, opening up a new upward space. With positive macro - fundamental data, it is expected to maintain an upward pattern in the short - term [1]. Bond Futures - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rebound despite a recent high - level decline [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be strong due to supply - side restrictions [1]. - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate as they are near the cost line despite weak industrial fundamentals [1]. - Zinc prices have risen recently due to good macro - sentiment, but caution is needed regarding the upside space [1]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with increased risk, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies, macro - sentiment, and futures positions [1]. - Stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Tin prices are affected by market sentiment, and caution is needed for capital withdrawal [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term but with significant fluctuations [1]. - The short - term pattern of weak platinum and strong palladium may continue, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the long - term [1]. - Industrial silicon is bearish due to production changes and reduced production schedules in related industries [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon has factors such as a traditional peak season for new energy vehicles,旺盛 demand for energy storage, and increased supply resumption [1]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise rapidly in the short - term [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Short - term sentiment and funds play a greater role than industrial contradictions, and long positions with stop - losses can be considered [1]. - Iron ore has obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Black metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, with potential supply disturbances [1]. - Glass prices are supported in the short - term but face over - supply pressure in the medium - term [1]. - Soda ash prices follow glass and are more loosely supplied in the medium - term, facing pressure [1]. - Coking coal may have room to rise if the "capacity reduction" expectation continues, but the actual increase is hard to judge [1]. - Coke has a similar logic to coking coal [1]. Oils - Palm oil is expected to be bearish in December according to MPOB data but may reverse later, and short - term rebounds due to macro - sentiment should be watched [1]. - Soybean oil has a strong fundamental and is recommended for long - allocation in oils [1]. - Rapeseed oil may have a trading logic change, and there is still room for price decline [1]. Agricultural Products - Cotton is in a situation of having support but no driving force, and future policies and market conditions should be watched [1]. - Sugar has a global surplus and increased domestic supply, and attention should be paid to capital changes [1]. - Corn sales progress has slowed but is still fast year - on - year, and the spot price is firm in the short - term [1]. - Bean粕 is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [1]. - Pulp prices are affected by macro - commodity fluctuations, and cautious observation is recommended [1]. - Log prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range [1]. - Live pigs' supply capacity still needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil has a risk of rising due to geopolitical factors, but there are also factors such as increased supply and weakening demand [1]. - Fuel oil is affected by factors similar to crude oil [1]. - Asphalt has factors such as high profit and potential supply changes [1]. - BR rubber has factors such as reduced upward momentum in the short - term and positive factors for future butadiene exports [1]. - PTA has a recent price increase not due to fundamental changes but has fundamental support in the future [1]. - Ethylene glycol rebounded due to supply - side news [1]. - Asian styrene is in a weak - balance state, and short - term upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Propylene has cost support and geopolitical risks [1]. - PVC is expected to face over - supply in 2026, and there is a possibility of capacity clearance [1]. - LPG has factors such as increased import costs, geopolitical risks, and changing inventory trends [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the non-ferrous metals sector [4]. Core Views - The report highlights a bullish sentiment towards non-ferrous metals, particularly copper, aluminum, rare earths, tin, lithium, gold, silver, tantalum, niobium, antimony, and uranium in the medium to long term [1][2][3]. - The macroeconomic environment is warming, leading to price increases in various non-ferrous commodities, with lithium, silver, tin, and aluminum leading the gains [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued price increases in rare earths and tantalum, which are less influenced by supply-demand dynamics [1]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown significant increases, with COMEX gold closing at $4,473 per ounce (+3.68%) and silver at $79.4 per ounce (+2.75%) [1]. - The U.S. labor market data indicates a slight decrease in unemployment to 4.4%, influencing market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 14th consecutive month, now holding 74.15 million ounces [1]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: LME copper closed at $12,965.5 per ton (-0.93%), while SHFE copper rose to ¥101,210 per ton (+2.60%). Supply disruptions in Chile and a slight decrease in demand from downstream industries are noted [2]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum reached $3,149.0 per ton (+1.91%), with SHFE aluminum at ¥24,455.0 per ton (+7.78%). The report indicates a slight increase in domestic production capacity but weak downstream demand [3]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin contracts rose to ¥352,910 per ton (+7.7%), driven by macroeconomic sentiment and supply expectations from key producing regions [7]. Energy Metals - **Nickel**: Nickel prices experienced volatility, with LME nickel peaking at $18,000 per ton before a sharp decline due to increased inventory levels and weak demand [8]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices remain stable around ¥460,000 per ton, with supply constraints expected to tighten further in 2026 due to export quota delays from the Democratic Republic of Congo [9]. - **Lithium**: Carbonate lithium futures reached ¥143,420 per ton (+18%), with expectations for increased demand from energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [10]. Strategic Metals - **Rare Earths**: Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and terbium oxide have increased to ¥626,000 and ¥623,500 per ton, respectively, with expectations for continued price growth due to stable demand [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Short - term tin prices are highly volatile due to macro - sentiment, and it is recommended to be cautious in operations. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2]. Aluminum Industry - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line. The aluminum price will maintain a high - level wide - range shock, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum operating in the range of 23,000 - 24,200 yuan/ton [5]. Nickel Industry - The nickel price has fallen significantly. The market is affected by Indonesia's unclear nickel - mine quota and geopolitical risks. The short - term price will be in a wide - range shock adjustment, with the main contract referring to the range of 130,000 - 135,000 [6]. Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless - steel market is affected by nickel - mine raw - material expectations. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term price is expected to be in a shock adjustment, with the main contract referring to the range of 13,200 - 14,000 [9]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The ADC12 price of aluminum alloy is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 22,000 - 23,200 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The lithium - carbonate market's fundamentals are weak in the off - season, but the post - holiday news boosts the sentiment. The price is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, and attention should be paid to the liquidity risk and regulatory possibility [13]. Copper Industry - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but the short - term price is over - valued irrationally. The short - term price will still maintain a relatively strong trend, and the volatility may increase [15]. Zinc Industry - The zinc price will fluctuate in the short term. The support comes from the tight domestic zinc - mine supply and low zinc - ingot inventory, and the pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The industrial - silicon market is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand in January. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [20]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon market has weak supply - demand fundamentals and high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see, pay attention to the increase in production cuts and the re - distribution of industrial - chain profits [22]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.25% to 355,050 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 128.57% to 800 yuan/ton. The 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 72% to - 350 [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, tin - ore imports increased by 29.81%. In December, SMM refined - tin production decreased slightly by 0.06%. SHEF and social inventories decreased [2]. Aluminum Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.58% to 24,000 yuan/ton. The AL 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 70 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic - aluminum production increased by 3.97%. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 8.18% [5]. Nickel Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.73% to 149,050 yuan/ton. The 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 310 yuan/ton to - 530 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined - nickel product output decreased by 9.38%, and imports increased by 30.08%. SHFE and social inventories increased [6]. Stainless Steel Industry - **Price and Spread**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price decreased by 1.08% to 13,800 yuan/ton. The 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production decreased by 2.5%. The net export volume increased by 25.31% [9]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM Southwest ADC12 increased by 0.43% to 23,600 yuan/ton. The 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16%. The recycled - aluminum alloy inventory decreased slightly [12]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3.75% to 138,500 yuan/ton. The 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 100 yuan/ton to - 540 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, lithium - carbonate production increased by 4.04%, and demand decreased by 2.5%. Total inventory decreased by 12.23% [13]. Copper Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 1.28% to 102,085 yuan/ton. The 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 250 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic - copper production increased by 6.8%. The domestic mainstream port copper - concentrate inventory decreased by 16.65% [15]. Zinc Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.53% to 24,170 yuan/ton. The 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, refined - zinc production decreased by 7.24%. The social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 11.69% [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry - **Price and Spread**: East - China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton. The 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 445 yuan/ton to 440 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial - silicon production decreased by 1.15%. Xinjiang's production increased by 6.46%. Social inventory decreased by 0.9% [20]. Polysilicon Industry - **Price and Spread**: The main - contract price of polysilicon decreased by 8.04% to 53,610 yuan/ton. The current - month - to - first - continuous spread increased by 1,215 yuan/ton to 1,415 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: Polysilicon production decreased slightly by 0.83% on a weekly basis. The silicon - wafer inventory increased by 13.11% [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and agricultural products. It assesses the supply - demand, price trends, and market sentiment of different products, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses. For example, in the financial derivatives sector, it analyzes the performance of stock index futures and bond futures; in the commodity sector, it covers metals, energy, and chemical products; in the agricultural products sector, it includes grains, oils, and fruits. [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily精选 - **PVC**: After the fading of emotional influence, both futures and spot prices declined. With increasing supply expectations and weak demand, the market is in an oversupply situation and may face a downward adjustment. [2] - **Iron Ore**: The price first rose and then fell, maintaining a range - bound oscillation. It will gradually shift from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand double - weak situation, with high - inventory pressure on the upside and steel mill restocking expectations on the downside. [3] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. However, high prices and policy supply supplements suppress the upward space. [4] - **Silver**: Tight inventory boosts the price. After the end of the short - term "irrational" rise driven by funds, attention should be paid to the callback risk caused by the global commodity index rebalancing. [5] 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, A - share major indexes showed mixed performance. The technology sector was strong, and there was a divergence between large - and small - cap indexes. The four major stock index futures contracts also had mixed performances, with some in a premium or discount state. [6][7] - **News**: Domestically, the warehouse index in December 2025 showed an upward trend; overseas, the Bank of Japan was optimistic about the economic outlook. [7][8] - **Funding**: On January 8, the trading volume in the A - share market was stable, and the central bank conducted net capital injections. [8] - **Operation Suggestion**: After the index breaks through the previous high, it is recommended to take partial profits on single - side long positions in futures, hold bullish spread portfolios, and consider constructing covered call portfolios at low prices. [8] 3.2.2 Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Bond futures closed higher across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined. [9] - **Funding**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the inter - bank market funds were stable and loose. However, attention should be paid to the possible impact of increasing leverage on liquidity. [9] - **Operation Suggestion**: After three consecutive days of decline, the bond market rebounded slightly. It is recommended to continue to wait and see for single - side strategies and tend to steepen the yield curve in the medium - term for curve strategies. [10][11] 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The inflation expectations in the US increased, and the unemployment situation showed some changes. The adjustment of the weights of major commodity indexes led to short - term selling of gold and silver, but the decline was limited due to geopolitical risks and other factors. [12][13][14] - **Outlook**: The US economy shows structural differentiation, and the market's expectation of monetary policy easing may increase. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold above $4300 and pay attention to the recovery of the gold - silver ratio. For silver, it is advisable to maintain a light - position long strategy above $70. Platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to long - term. [14][15][16] 3.4 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index Performance**: As of January 5, the SCFIS European line index rose, while the US West route index fell. As of December 26, the SCFI composite index rose. [17] - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The Eurozone's December composite PMI was 51.5, and the US December manufacturing PMI was 47.9. [17] - **Logic**: The futures price declined, and the spot price entered a downward trend. It is expected to decline in the short - term. [17] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Spot**: As of January 8, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the market supply was sufficient while high prices suppressed consumption. [17] - **Macro**: The rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index and geopolitical issues affected the market sentiment. [18] - **Supply**: The copper concentrate TC was at a low level. The electrolytic copper production in December increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. [19] - **Demand**: The copper rod production rate was significantly lower than the seasonal level, and the downstream demand was weak. [19] - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic and COMEX copper inventories increased. [21] - **Logic**: The short - term price may be overvalued, but the medium - to long - term fundamentals are good. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices. [22] 3.5.2 Alumina - **Spot**: On January 8, the spot prices in different regions were stable or slightly decreased. The supply was gradually becoming more abundant, and the price was under pressure. [22] - **Supply**: In December 2025, the production increased slightly. Considering the losses of some small and medium - sized plants, the production may decrease slightly in January. [23] - **Inventory**: The port, factory, and electrolytic aluminum plant inventories all increased. [23] - **Logic**: The futures price declined, and the supply - demand fundamentals remained weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term. [24] 3.5.3 Aluminum - **Spot**: On January 8, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the spot market was inactive. [24] - **Supply**: In December 2025, the production increased. In the coming year, the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum - water ratio may decline. [25] - **Demand**: The processing product's weekly production rates were differentiated, and the overall demand was weak. [26] - **Inventory**: The domestic and LME aluminum inventories showed different trends, with an overall increase in domestic inventories. [26] - **Logic**: The short - term funds showed a retreat sign. The macro environment is positive, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. [27] 3.5.4 Other Non - ferrous Metals - **Zinc**: The price oscillated and adjusted. The domestic zinc concentrate supply was tight, but the import window might open. The demand was relatively stable, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [31][32][34] - **Tin**: The price fell from a high level. The supply from Myanmar may increase, and the demand in the South China region was relatively stable. It is recommended to wait and see. [35][36][38] - **Nickel**: The price dropped significantly. The supply and demand were both weak, and the market was affected by news from Indonesia. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high prices. [38][39][40] - **Stainless Steel**: The price adjusted. The supply pressure was slightly relieved, but the demand in the off - season was weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [41][42][43] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price fluctuated widely. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand was resilient but faced a decline in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see. [45][46][47] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price limit - down. The supply was expected to decrease, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [48][49][50] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price decreased due to the influence of polysilicon. The supply and demand were both weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the supply reduction situation. [50][51][52] 3.6 Black Metals 3.6.1 Steel - **Spot**: The futures price rose and then fell, and the spot price was weak. The cost pushed up the steel price, but the profit margin decreased. [52] - **Supply**: The production increased slightly, but the increase was limited considering the off - season demand. [53] - **Demand**: The demand decreased seasonally, and the inventory entered the accumulation stage. [53][54] - **View**: The steel price is expected to oscillate within a certain range, with raw material prices providing support. [54] 3.6.2 Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price decreased, and the futures price also declined. The demand was stable, and the supply was expected to decrease slightly. It is expected to oscillate at a high level. [55][56] - **View**: The iron ore market will transition from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand double - weak situation, with price fluctuations within a certain range. [56] 3.6.3 Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The futures price continued to rise, and the spot price in Shanxi was weak, while the Mongolian coal price followed the futures. [57][60] - **Supply**: The coal mine production increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly. [58][59] - **Demand**: The steel mill's iron - making production increased, and the coking plant's production also increased. [58][59] - **View**: It is recommended to short lightly at high prices for single - side strategies and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke spread. [60] 3.6.4 Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The futures price first rose and then fell, and the fourth - round price cut in the spot market was implemented. [61][64] - **Supply**: The coking plant's production increased. [62] - **Demand**: The steel mill's iron - making production increased. [62] - **View**: It is recommended to short lightly at high prices for single - side strategies and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke spread. [64] 3.6.5 Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: The price decreased significantly. The supply was stable, and the demand from the steel and non - steel sectors had certain support. It is expected to oscillate within a range. [65][66] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price decreased. The supply was at a relatively low level, and the demand was stable. The manganese ore price provided support. It is expected to oscillate widely. [67][68][69] 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Meal - **Spot Market**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends. The trading volume of soybean meal increased. [70] - **Fundamentals**: The expected export volume of Brazilian soybeans to China may decrease, and the soybean harvest in Brazil is in the early stage with good yields. [71] - **View**: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate within a range, affected by the USDA report and domestic supply - demand. [72] 3.7.2 Other Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The spot price was stable. After the New Year, the demand decreased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The futures price may face pressure. [73][74] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. High prices and policy supplements suppress the upward space. [75][76][77] - **Sugar**: The Brazilian sugar - making season is ending, and the focus is on the northern hemisphere. The domestic price is expected to oscillate at a low level. [78] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price may oscillate, and the domestic cotton price is expected to be bullish in the short - term but may face a callback. [80][81] - **Eggs**: The supply may decrease, and the demand is cautious. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. [82][83] - **Oils**: The prices of different oils showed different trends. Palm oil may break through after the MPOB report; soybean oil may decline; and rapeseed oil is affected by Sino - Canadian trade relations and is weak in the short - term. [84][86][87] - **Jujubes**: The market trading was light, and the futures price decreased slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds. [89] - **Apples**: The price was under pressure. The market is in a game between the scarcity of high - quality fruits and the inventory pressure of ordinary fruits. It is recommended to use put options to protect long positions. [90] 3.8 Energy Chemicals 3.8.1 PX - **Spot and Profit**: The price decreased, and the profit margin was compressed. [91] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply was at a high level, and the demand was weak. [91][93] - **View**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and may be bullish in the medium - term. It is recommended to go long at low prices. [93] 3.8.2 Other Energy Chemical Products - **PTA**: The futures price decreased, and the supply - demand was expected to weaken in the first quarter. It is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate in the short - term, and go long at low prices in the medium - term. [94][95] - **Short - fiber**: The supply was high, and the demand was weak. It is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate. [96] - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply and demand are expected to decrease in January, and the processing fee has limited upward space. It is recommended to follow the PTA strategy. [98][99] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is under pressure due to the expected inventory accumulation. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options and conduct reverse spreads. [100] - **Pure Benzene**: The price is under pressure due to high inventory, but the demand has slightly improved. It is expected to oscillate at a low level. [101][102] - **Styrene**: The price is supported in the short - term but may face inventory accumulation. It is recommended to wait and see and short the processing fee at high prices. [103][104] - **LLDPE**: The supply is expected to decrease marginally, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract in the short - term. [105] - **PP**: The price is strong due to increased maintenance. It is recommended to hold the profitable PDH positions. [106] - **Methanol**: The demand - side maintenance increased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. [106] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak and stable. [107][108] - **PVC**: The price decreased due to weak supply - demand and high inventory. It may face a downward adjustment. [109][110] - **Urea**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, affected by the Indian tender and cost factors. [111][112] - **Soda Ash**: The price oscillates, and the supply - demand is in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see. [113][115] - **Glass**: The price is strong, supported by cost and winter - storage policies. It is recommended to wait and see. [113][116] - **Natural Rubber**: The price declined due to weak market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see. [116][118][119] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price continued to rise, although the fundamental support was limited. It is recommended not to short in the short - term. [119][120][121]

Report Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating with an upward bias [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating with an upward bias [4] Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost has pushed up steel prices strongly, and the prices of glass, soda ash, and double silicon have shown an upward trend [1][3] - The supply - demand contradictions of glass and soda ash are different, and attention should be paid to production line changes and new project progress [1] - The fundamentals of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon have different characteristics, and factors such as cost and demand need to be concerned [3] Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The glass futures and spot prices rose significantly. Although some production lines have been cold - repaired, the production reduction is insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. The purchase of futures - spot traders may relieve inventory pressure, and the market expects a peak season after the Spring Festival [1] - Soda Ash: The futures and spot prices of soda ash rose. The rigid demand from downstream is limited, but the enthusiasm of futures - spot traders and traders has increased. The supply has decreased, and the inventory has increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the changes in float glass production lines and new soda ash projects [1] Double Silicon - Silicomanganese: Affected by the overall rise of the black series, the silicomanganese futures rose. The South African government plans to impose tariffs on unprocessed manganese ore, which may increase the cost. The current fundamentals are not good, with high production and large inventory growth. After the New Year's Day, the resumption of steel mills may repair the rigid demand, and the low port inventory of manganese ore provides support [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon market is running strongly. Traders are active in purchasing during the January steel tenders, and the sales are good. The fundamentals' contradictions have been significantly alleviated, the factory inventory has decreased, and the rigid demand is expected to improve after the resumption of steel mills. The implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi may increase the cost [3] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating with an upward bias [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating with an upward bias [4] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The main theme of cooling employment in the US remains unchanged, but the resilience of the service industry offsets the downward pressure. In the domestic market, the upward momentum of the A - share market has weakened, and the market has entered a stage of differentiated game. Precious metals are facing increased short - term adjustment pressure, while various industrial metals and agricultural products show different trends based on their respective fundamentals and market factors [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: In December, the US ADP employment number turned positive but was lower than expected. The JOLTS job openings in November dropped to a more - than - one - year low, and the number of job openings was lower than the number of unemployed for the first time in four years, indicating a slowdown in recruitment. However, the ISM service industry PMI in December rose to a more - than - one - year high of 54.4, with a significant rebound in new orders, driving a phased recovery in service - industry employment and a slowdown in price increases. The US dollar index rebounded to 98.7, and the upward momentum of metals paused. Oil prices continued to adjust [2] - Domestic: On Wednesday, the A - share market fluctuated widely, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting 4100 points but failing to break through, closing at 4085 points, showing a marginal weakening of upward momentum. The broad - based index structure was differentiated, and the market entered a stage of differentiated game. In January, domestic economic data and policies are in a relatively empty period, and the market depends more on the self - evolution of capital structure and risk preference [3] Precious Metals - On Wednesday, precious metals futures showed high - level fluctuations during the day session. At night, the Shanghai Futures Exchange further tightened the supervision of silver futures, leading to a sharp decline in precious metal prices. The COMEX gold futures fell 0.65% to $4467.1 per ounce, and the COMEX silver futures fell 3.77% to $77.98 per ounce. The exchange continued to strengthen risk - control measures. The Bloomberg Commodity Index will conduct an annual weight rebalancing from January 8th to 14th, which may cause a "technical sell - off" by passive funds. Although the long - term bullish logic for precious metals remains unchanged, short - term adjustment pressure has increased [4][5] Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to rise strongly, while LME copper adjusted to around $12800 last night. The domestic spot market for electrolytic copper had poor trading, and downstream buyers were hesitant due to high prices. The LME inventory decreased to 143,000 tons, while the COMEX inventory continued to rise to 512,000 tons. After copper prices hit a new high the day before, overseas funds' long - positions took profits and sold off. The high copper prices continued to suppress consumption in major demand countries. Fundamentally, the global concentrate remained in a tight pattern, and the shortage at the cost - end would support copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a high - level shock in the short term and enter a valuation - repair range [6][7] Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24,410 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The LME aluminum closed at $3083.5 per ton, down 1.61%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the aluminum rod inventory in the main domestic consumption areas also increased. After a significant increase, there was profit - taking. However, the weak employment data strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's further easing policy, and the price rebounded at night. Fundamentally, the continuous and rapid increase in aluminum prices suppressed downstream demand, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots was expected to continue to accumulate. The market's long - positions showed signs of convergence, and there may be a need for price repair [8][9][10] Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2938 yuan/ton, up 4.97%. The national average spot price of alumina decreased by 1 yuan/ton. The market's macro sentiment and the expectation of alumina production cuts in January led to a rebound in the futures price first, resulting in a divergence between futures and spot prices and the appearance of an inter - period arbitrage window. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has not changed much recently, and the theoretical production capacity is still in excess. In the short term, the supply is still in excess, and a short - position thinking after the rebound is recommended, with attention paid to the resistance level around 3000 yuan/ton [11] Cast Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 23,035 yuan/ton, up 0.7. The rapid increase in cast aluminum prices has made downstream buyers hesitant, with most of them maintaining rigid - demand purchases. Some enterprises have production - cut plans, and the pre - Spring Festival stocking is slow, restricting consumption. The supply side is relatively stable due to the limitation of scrap aluminum. In the short term, the macro sentiment dominates, and cast aluminum is relatively strong, but the poor price transmission between upstream and downstream will put pressure on prices in the future [12] Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated horizontally during the day and moved down at night, and LME zinc closed down. The spot market supply was limited, with high premiums. Downstream buyers were still hesitant due to high prices. The overall economic data in the US was mixed, the US dollar strengthened, and the enthusiasm of funds to go long cooled down, with the main contract reducing positions for adjustment. Fundamentally, the zinc - ore processing fee decline slowed down, and the supply of refined zinc increased month - on - month. Consumption remained in the off - season, and terminal orders were limited. It is expected that zinc prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [13][14] Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated strongly during the day and first declined and then rebounded at night, and LME lead fluctuated weakly. The spot market had limited circulating supply, and downstream enterprises generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude, mainly making long - term contract purchases. The US dollar strengthened, and lead prices adjusted with the reduction of positions in the non - ferrous metal sector. Fundamentally, the production of primary lead smelters increased slightly month - on - month, while the production of secondary lead smelters decreased slightly. The overall supply pressure was limited, and low inventory would support lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will remain at a high level in the short term [15] Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin continued to be strong during the day, once reaching the 360,000 - yuan line, and fluctuated horizontally at night, and LME tin fluctuated narrowly. Both at home and abroad maintained a wide - range expectation, providing a bullish atmosphere for commodities. The non - ferrous metal sector has been rising in rotation since the New Year. Fundamentally, the production of refined tin in January decreased slightly month - on - month, demand was in the off - season, and the negative feedback of high - price raw materials was expected to deepen. After the New Year's Day stocking benefits were realized, social inventory was expected to increase again. In the short term, the US economic data was mixed, the US dollar closed up, and Shanghai tin adjusted with a reduction of positions. Attention should be paid to high - level risks [16] Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, the main contract of industrial silicon rebounded slightly. The supply side showed a marginal contraction, with the operating rate in Xinjiang remaining at around 90%, low production in the southwest region in the off - season, and limited overall increases in Inner Mongolia and Gansu. On the demand side, the supply of polysilicon was converging, and the inventory pressure of silicon - wafer enterprises was effectively relieved after production cuts. The production capacity of battery - cell enterprises did not show significant fluctuations, and the increase in silver prices was expected to drag down the production plan. The demand for components was weak near the end of the year. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 553,000 tons last week, and it is expected that the futures price will maintain a relatively strong shock in the short term [17][18] Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures rose. The short - term sharp rise in coking coal and coke drove the rise of steel prices. The supply and demand of steel were in a weak balance, with off - season demand suppressing and inventory reduction supporting, and the macro expectation was relatively positive. The supply and demand of rebar fluctuated at a low level and continued the de - stocking pattern, while the production of hot - rolled coil increased, and the de - stocking slowed down and remained at a high level. It is expected that the supply - demand pattern will remain weak, and attention should be paid to high - level risks [19] Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron - ore futures rose. The supply side saw a surge in overseas miners' shipments at the end of the year, with global shipments hitting a new high for the year, and port inventories continued to accumulate, maintaining a loose supply. The demand side showed a slight decline in the blast - furnace operating rate of steel mills, and pig - iron production hovered at a low level, with low factory inventories. The short - term strong performance of coking coal and coke provided support, and the futures price was relatively strong [20] Coking Coal and Coke - On Wednesday, coking coal and coke futures hit the daily limit and continued to rise sharply at night. The news that Yulin City removed 26 coal mines from the coal - supply guarantee list and reduced the production capacity by 19 million tons, combined with multiple factors such as positive macro - policy expectations, steel mills' winter - storage replenishment demand, and capital - sector rotation, drove the strong rise of coking coal and coke futures. However, the fundamental support was limited. Currently, domestic coal production has recovered after the holiday, and the inventory of imported coal is high, while the inventory pressure of downstream finished products is high in the off - season, restricting the upward space of prices. In the short term, strong expectations dominate, and prices may maintain a relatively strong shock pattern, but the risk of chasing high is relatively large [21] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean - meal 05 contract closed up 1.74% at 2811 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed - meal 05 contract closed up 1.72% at 2419 yuan/ton. The precipitation in the Argentine production area has continuously improved, and the crop conditions in the South American production areas are good. Currently, soybeans and soybean meal are in a high - inventory situation, and the suspension of the state - reserve imported - soybean auction and the expected decrease in future soybean arrivals may accelerate inventory depletion, with tight - supply expectations providing support. The basis is strong, and the spot price is stable with a slight increase. Combined with the strong bullish sentiment in the commodity market, long - position funds entered the market, and the soybean - meal 05 contract broke through the short - term resistance range. It is expected that soybean and rapeseed meal will fluctuate strongly in the short term [22][23] Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm - oil 05 contract closed up 0.66% at 8562 yuan/ton. The production of palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 4.64% in December. Indonesia plans to confiscate 4 - 5 million hectares of oil - palm plantations in 2026, which may disrupt production and push up prices. The US economic data showed that demand is relatively stable, and the US dollar index fluctuated and closed up. The market is waiting for the report's guidance, and it is expected that palm oil will fluctuate within a range in the short term [24][25]