Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. Core Views - The oil market is expected to face increasing supply pressure in the medium to long term. In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain weak, with Brent crude oil expected to trade in the range of $65 - $67 per barrel [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to be in a state of weak oscillation. The supply - demand balance is becoming more relaxed, and the valuation is relatively high [4][5][6]. - The fuel oil market, both high - sulfur and low - sulfur, is expected to be weak. High - sulfur fuel oil is affected by high inventories, and low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and lack of demand drivers [6][8][9]. - The PX and PTA markets are expected to oscillate. Their prices are greatly influenced by oil prices and the macro - economic situation, but the supply - demand contradiction of PTA will be alleviated later [10][12][13]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to oscillate in the short term due to the balance between supply reduction and demand increase [13][15]. - The short - fiber market is expected to oscillate, and its processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with prices following raw material trends [14][15][17]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to oscillate. The market supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season, with processing fees expected to fluctuate at a low level [17][18][19]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets are expected to be weak. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand lacks support. Styrene may face inventory accumulation pressure [19][20][22]. - The propylene market is expected to be in a state of relaxation, with increasing supply and poor downstream product profits [24][25]. - The PVC market is expected to be weak in the medium term, facing new production capacity pressure and weak demand, but with short - term observation recommended [26][27]. - The caustic soda market is expected to improve in the medium term, with a recommendation to buy on dips [28][29]. - The plastic PP market is expected to be weak in the short term and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended in the medium term [30][31]. - The log market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with a recommendation to observe mainly, and aggressive investors can consider a small - scale long - position layout [32][33]. - The offset - printing paper market has a pattern of oversupply, and it is recommended to short - sell the 01 contract near the lower limit of the spot market price [33][34]. - The pulp market has a certain degree of support below, but the high port inventory and weak demand suppress the rebound space. It is recommended to try a small - scale long - position in the SP main 11 contract [34][35][37]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market: hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract and consider taking profits on short positions in the NR main 11 contract [37][38][39]. - The butadiene rubber market: hold short positions in the BR main 11 contract [40][41][42]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Crude Oil**: WTI2510 contract closed at $62.68, down $0.89 per barrel (-1.40%); Brent2511 contract closed at $66.68, down $0.76 per barrel (-1.13%); SC2511 contract closed at 491.2 yuan/barrel, down 5.1 yuan, and dropped 7.6 yuan to 483.6 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Asphalt**: BU2511 closed at 3421 points (+0.00%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3372 points (-0.06%) at night [4]. - **Fuel Oil**: FU01 contract closed at 2782 (-1.28%) at night; LU11 closed at 3370 (-1.03%) at night [6]. - **PX & PTA**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6594 (-1.35%) during the day and 6600 (+0.09%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4604 (-1.33%) during the day and 4602 (-0.04%) at night [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4257 (-0.26%) during the day and 4249 (-0.19%) at night [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6284 (-0.95%) during the day and 6288 (+0.06%) at night [14]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5762 (-0.93%) during the day and 5758 (-0.07%) at night [17]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5966 (-0.55%) during the day and 5954 (-0.2%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6992 (-1.16%) during the day and 6971 (-0.3%) at night [19]. - **Propylene**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6388 (-0.56%) during the day and 6393 (+0.08%) at night [24]. - **PVC**: The domestic PVC powder market price increased slightly, with mainstream markets rising by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [26]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong decreased, while the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda remained stable [28]. - **Plastic PP**: The price of LLDPE in some regions decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; the price of PP in some regions decreased or remained stable [30]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs remained stable, and the 11 - month contract oscillated downward, closing at 801.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.87% [31]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: The market price of high - white offset - printing paper in Shandong remained stable, and the OP2601 contract in the futures market rose 8 yuan/ton at night [33]. - **Pulp**: The futures market declined slightly, and the prices of various types of pulp in the spot market were stable or had slight fluctuations [34][35]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The RU main 01 contract rose 10 points (+0.06%); the NR main 11 contract rose 60 points (+0.49%); the BR main 11 contract rose 50 points (+0.44%) [37][38][40]. Related Information - **Crude Oil**: The central bank is expected to keep the LPR unchanged; some countries recognized the State of Palestine, causing an angry response from Israel; the number of US drilling rigs increased [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Rain in Shandong affected demand, and contracts were being executed; in the Yangtze River Delta, demand was average, and some low - price resources were released; in South China, typhoons affected demand, but some social inventories had no pressure [4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: China's fuel oil imports decreased in August, and some Russian refineries were affected by attacks [6][7][8]. - **PX & PTA**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and polyester decreased slightly, and some PX and PTA plants had maintenance plans [10][11][12]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in China increased slightly, and some plants had restart or maintenance plans [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The sales of polyester yarn were average, and the operating rates of downstream industries remained stable [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: The export prices of polyester bottle - chips decreased slightly, and the operating rate of bottle - chips decreased [17][18]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The operating rates of petroleum benzene and its downstream industries changed, and some pure benzene and styrene plants had maintenance or restart plans [19][20][21]. - **Propylene**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased, and some plants restarted or were under maintenance [24][25]. - **PVC**: There was new production capacity pressure, and exports were expected to weaken [26][27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The purchase price of a large alumina plant in Shandong decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine in some regions increased [28][29]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of major producers increased, and there was new production capacity expected [30][31]. - **Log**: China's coniferous log imports decreased in August, and the funds of construction sites changed [32]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: The production of double - sided offset paper increased, and the inventory of producers increased [33][34]. - **Pulp**: A special paper production line of a company was put into operation, and a pulp mill extended its maintenance time [37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Jilin Petrochemical trial - produced a new type of rubber [39][41]. Logical Analysis - **Crude Oil**: OPEC increased production in August and September, the peak demand season in the Middle East ended, and the supply pressure increased. In the short term, oil prices are expected to be weak [2]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are falling, production is increasing, and the supply - demand balance is becoming more relaxed, with a relatively high valuation [4][5][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Russian refineries are gradually recovering, high - sulfur exports in the Middle East are increasing, and demand is weakening [8][9]. - **PX & PTA**: The macro - economic situation is weak, and the supply and demand of PX and PTA have decreased. The supply - demand contradiction of PTA will be alleviated later [12][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply has decreased and demand has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The plant operating rate has increased, downstream demand is weak, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: The market supply is abundant, demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17][18][19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak; the supply of styrene may increase, and there is inventory accumulation pressure [20][21][22]. - **Propylene**: The propane market is in the peak season, the supply of propylene is increasing, and downstream product profits are poor [24][25]. - **PVC**: There is new production capacity pressure, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline [26][27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The pressure on the spot market in Shandong has been released, and the medium - term supply - demand situation is expected to improve [28][29]. - **Plastic PP**: The demand is in the peak season, but there is new production capacity expected, and the cost support is weak [30][31]. - **Log**: The supply and demand are both weak, with supply expected to contract later [32][33]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is weak, and cost support is limited [33][34]. - **Pulp**: The macro - economic situation has improved, but high inventory and weak demand suppress the rebound space [34][35][37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The inventory situation of different types of rubber is different, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of the BR contract has decreased, and short - positions are recommended to be held [40][41][42]. Trading Strategies - **Crude Oil**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are weak; options: observe [1][4]. - **Asphalt**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates weakly; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: observe; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 at high prices [6][10]. - **PX & PTA**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [10][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [17][18][19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [19][20][22]. - **Propylene**: Unilateral trading: oscillate and sort out; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [24][25][26]. - **PVC**: Unilateral trading: observe in the short term and short - sell on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [26][27][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: Unilateral trading: buy on dips; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [28][29][30]. - **Plastic PP**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly in the short term and short - sell on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [30][31]. - **Log**: Unilateral trading: observe mainly, and aggressive investors can consider a small - scale long - position layout; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [32][33]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Unilateral trading: short - sell the 01 contract near the lower limit of the spot market price; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [33][34]. - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading: try a small - scale long - position in the SP main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage; options: observe [34][35][37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract and take profits on short positions in the NR main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions in the BR main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [40][41][42].

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing price fluctuations that follow the trends of crude oil and coal, with a focus on whether undervalued chemical products will rebound significantly [1] - For PTA, the current spot processing fee is consistently below 150 RMB/ton, while the breakeven point exceeds 250-300 RMB/ton, indicating a potential for processing fee recovery due to the negative basis [1] - New production facilities have been delayed, impacting the processing fees for the PTA industry, which has a capacity of over 80 million tons, suggesting that the current processing fees are unsustainable [1] Group 2 - The supply pressure from crude oil continues, with geopolitical risks needing attention [1] - Various chemical products are experiencing different market dynamics, such as methanol port inventory accumulation slowing down and urea transactions being limited [1] - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with macroeconomic factors providing only temporary boosts to chemical prices, leading to an overall oscillating trend [1]

Report General Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researcher: Feng Zeren (Glass, Soda Ash) [4] Report Core Content 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash: The short - term contradiction in the industry has been alleviated, but the supply - demand pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. With the improvement of macro - sentiment, the arrival of the peak season, and the resurgence of anti - involution expectations, the soda ash futures price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly strong trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro changes [8]. - Glass: The overall glass production shows a slight upward trend, and industry profits have improved. Industry inventory has started to accumulate again. Affected by the peak - season demand and anti - involution expectations, the glass futures price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly strong trend in the short term [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market** - On September 16, the price of the main soda ash futures contract SA601 rebounded significantly, closing at 1339 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton or 3.15%, with a daily reduction of 101,682 lots in positions [7]. - Fundamentally, the weekly production growth rate has slowed down, and the inventory reduction has decreased. The high - inventory and weak - demand situation persists. The weekly production reached 761,100 tons, a 1.24% increase from the previous week. The factory inventory decreased to 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 24,600 tons from last Thursday. The total shipment volume was 785,700 tons, a 1.44% decrease from the previous week, and the overall shipment rate was 103.23%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points [8]. - **Glass Market** - Fundamentally, the overall glass production has slightly increased but is still at a low level. Spot prices have rebounded, and industry profits have improved. Deep - processing orders remain basically unchanged, mainly driven by rigid demand, and inventory has started to accumulate again. Different types of glass have different market situations. The supply - side pressure of float glass has been marginally relieved, and the cost side has certain support, but the demand side remains weak. The demand for new - house glass continues to decline, while the production of automobiles and home appliances is increasing, providing some support for glass demand. The photovoltaic glass market has seen a significant price increase [9][10]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy - soda market price, and flat - glass production, with data sources from Wind and iFind [12][15][17]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bottom support of nickel and stainless steel prices is relatively stable, and the prices are rising. Short - term nickel prices are mainly in a volatile market, easily affected by macro - sentiment, with an unchanged pattern of oversupply and limited upside space. Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding as inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks and material costs have risen. The subsequent demand situation in the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [1][3]. Market Analysis of Nickel Futures - On September 15, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 122,000 yuan/ton and closed at 122,580 yuan/ton, a change of 1.15% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 102,679 (- 42,422) lots, and the open interest was 70,610 (- 2,030) lots. The night session of the main contract stabilized at a high level, standing above 122,000 yuan/ton. After the opening of the day session, it declined slightly but then rose with the overall metal sector, reaching a maximum of 122,900 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel Ore - The market remained calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, mine quotes were firm but slightly delayed due to rainfall. Downstream nickel - iron had a strong bullish sentiment, but iron plants were still in the red and were cautious in nickel - ore procurement. In Indonesia, the supply remained loose, with the September (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price rising by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars. The current domestic trade premium was +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was generally average, and the premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand were slightly adjusted. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 24,959 (+1,430) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 224,484 (- 600) tons [2]. Strategy for Nickel - Short - term nickel prices are mainly in a volatile market, and the overall strategy is based on range trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Market Analysis of Stainless Steel Futures - On September 15, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,945 yuan/ton and closed at 13,070 yuan/ton, a change of 1.20% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 180,934 (+180,934) lots, and the open interest was 133,829 (- 4,171) lots. The night - session trend was stable, but after the opening of the day session, affected by the price increase of a large domestic stainless - steel plant, the price rose strongly, reaching a maximum of 13,100 yuan/ton and slightly retracting at the close [3]. Spot - Affected by the rise of the futures price, the spot price increased. Although the acceptance of high - priced goods was low, inquiries increased significantly, market activity improved, and actual transactions were fair. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 250 to 550 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 954.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy for Stainless Steel - With inventory decreasing for nine consecutive weeks and material costs rising, stainless - steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding. The subsequent demand situation in the consumption peak season needs to be monitored. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4].

Report Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish with oscillations due to fluctuating expectations [2][4] - Rebar: Bullish with oscillations as anti - cut - throat competition sentiment resurfaces [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil: Bullish with oscillations as anti - cut - throat competition sentiment resurfaces [2][8] - Ferrosilicon: Bullish with oscillations boosted by macro sentiment [2][11] - Silicomanganese: Bullish with oscillations boosted by macro sentiment [2][11] - Coke: Wide - range oscillations with fluctuating expectations [2][14] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillations with fluctuating expectations [2][15] - Logs: Oscillatory and erratic [2][17] Core Views - The prices of various black - series commodities in the futures market show different trends, mainly affected by factors such as market expectations, macro sentiment, and industry fundamentals [2][4][8] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of I2601 closed at 796.0 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton (-0.44%); the position decreased by 7,364 hands. Among spot prices, the price of imported ore mostly declined, while some domestic ore prices rose. Some basis and spread values changed [4] - **News**: As of the end of August, M2 balance was 331.98 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year; M1 balance was 111.23 trillion yuan, up 6% year - on - year [4] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,045 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.93%); for HC2510, it was 3,398 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (0.71%). Spot prices in most regions increased. Some basis and spread values changed [8] - **News**: From January to August 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year; fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year; total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year - on - year. In August, China exported 951.0 tons of steel, down 3.3% month - on - month [9][10] - **Trend Strength**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts increased to varying degrees. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also changed. There were changes in basis, spread, and cross - variety spread [11] - **News**: In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 7,737 million tons, down 0.7% year - on - year; the daily average output was 249.6 million tons, down 2.8% month - on - month [11] - **Trend Strength**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased by 3.8% and 3.9% respectively. Spot prices of coking coal remained stable, while some coke prices declined. Some basis and spread values changed [15] - **News**: An important article by Xi Jinping will be published in the 18th issue of Qiushi Journal [15] - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of most log products remained stable [18] - **News**: As of the end of August, M2 balance was 331.98 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year; M1 balance was 111.23 trillion yuan, up 6% year - on - year [20] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [20]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the market conditions of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese on September 16, 2025, including fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend strength [1]. 1. Fundamental Data Futures Data - The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2511 and 2601 are 5700 and 5660 respectively, with increases of 92 and 86 compared to the previous trading day. Their trading volumes are 200,143 and 61,942, and the open interests are 213,259 and 94,956 [1]. - The closing prices of silicomanganese 2511 and 2601 are 5894 and 5906 respectively, with increases of 72 and 74 compared to the previous trading day. Their trading volumes are 100,883 and 184,056, and the open interests are 118,581 and 327,726 [1]. Spot Data - The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.2 yuan/ton - degree. The price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton [1]. Spread Data - The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 11 futures) is - 400 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread of silicomanganese (spot - 01 futures) is - 226 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton [1]. - The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 is 40 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of silicomanganese 2511 - 2601 is - 12 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [1]. - The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2511 - ferrosilicon 2511 is 194 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 is 246 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On September 15, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was as follows: Shaanxi 5150 - 5250, Ningxia 5250 - 5350 (- 50), Qinghai 5200 - 5300, Gansu 5300 - 5350 (+ 50), Inner Mongolia 5250 - 5300. The price range of 75 ferrosilicon in different regions was also provided. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon were 1040 - 1060 and 1100 - 1130 US dollars/ton respectively. The price range of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton [1]. - In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 7737 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The daily average crude steel output in August was 249.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8%. From January to August, China's crude steel output was 67181 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8% [1]. - In August 2025, South Korea's silicomanganese imports were 15902 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1738 tons (a decrease of 9.85%) and a year - on - year increase of 11.66%. The main importing countries were Malaysia (13495 tons), Vietnam (1725 tons), and Bhutan (329 tons) [2][3]. 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of ferrosilicon is 1, and the trend strength of silicomanganese is 1. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Due to the approaching Fed interest rate meeting and the warming domestic macro - sentiment, the bulk market is strong, driving a short - term rebound in urea. With significant volume in low - price spot transactions on Monday, low - price spot is temporarily stable in the short term, and high - price spot is moving towards low - price spot. So, with a strong macro and increased spot trading volume, short - term urea futures and spot prices are expected to be supported in the oscillation. Medium - term, the downward trend logic remains unchanged. Urea still maintains a high premium, and the high valuation may limit the speculative upside of the market. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: On September 16, the closing price of urea futures was 1,683 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,679 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The trading volume of the urea main contract (01 contract) was 166,237 lots, an increase of 41,590 lots; the open interest was 284,978 lots, a decrease of 15,607 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 8,613 tons, a decrease of 234 tons; the trading volume was 558.324 million yuan, an increase of 142.652 million yuan. The basis in Shandong was - 43, down 40; the basis of Fengxi - futures was - 143, down 20; the basis of Dongguang - futures was 17, down 20. The spread between UR01 and UR05 was - 48, up 7. [1] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged. The price of Shandong Ruixing decreased by 20 yuan to 1,600 yuan/ton. The trader prices in Shandong decreased by 20 yuan to 1,640 yuan/ton, while those in Shanxi remained unchanged. The supply - side indicators showed that the daily output was 185,090 tons, an increase of 200 tons, and the operating rate was 79.12%, an increase of 0.09%. [1] Industry News - On September 15, the daily output of the urea industry was 191,200 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous day and 1,100 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 81.73%, a decrease of 3.51% from 85.24% in the same period last year. [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets will continue to show a volatile trend until the interest rate cut is implemented [1] - In the short term, nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside space. For stainless steel, inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks, material costs have risen, and there are signs of a stop - fall and rebound. The subsequent demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [2][4][5] Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On September 11, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 120,520 yuan/ton and closed at 120,620 yuan/ton, a 0.11% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 87,538 (+12,532) lots, and the open interest was 81,691 (79) lots. The contract oscillated in the range of 120,110 - 120,910 yuan/ton at night and in the daytime, and finally closed slightly up by 140 yuan. The slowdown of the US August PPI year - on - year increase and the decline of core PPI month - on - month strengthened the September interest rate cut expectation, but the market is waiting for the US CPI data, resulting in cautious bullish sentiment and strong wait - and - see attitude [2] Nickel Ore - The market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and ocean freight continues to rise. Philippine quotes remain firm, and subsequent mine quotes may rise due to the increase in downstream nickel - iron prices. Shipment is slightly delayed due to rainfall. The new transaction price in the domestic nickel - iron market is 960 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch). Domestic iron plants still have profit losses and are cautious in nickel ore procurement. The supply in Indonesia remains in a loose pattern, and the September (forward) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to rise by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, with the domestic trade premium remaining at +24 and the premium range being +23 - 24 [2] Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price oscillates horizontally, downstream wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and spot trading is generally average. The premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand remain stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changes by 50 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changes by 0 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume is 22,111 (-193) tons, and the LME nickel inventory is 223,152 (2,058) tons [3] Strategy - Short - term nickel price: mainly volatile, easily affected by macro - sentiment, supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, limited upside space. Unilateral: mainly range operation; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4] Group 4: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On September 11, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,905 yuan/ton and closed at 12,870 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 112,848 (-2,615.00) lots, and the open interest was 128,344 (5,176) lots. It oscillated in the range of 12,885 - 12,930 yuan/ton at night and closed slightly up. During the daytime, due to the weakening of black - series futures, it failed to continue the night - session upward trend and finally closed down 45 yuan [4] Spot - Due to the narrow - range oscillation of the futures market, downstream buyers are cautious and mainly purchase on demand. Transactions are dull, and prices remain stable. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B is 325 - 625 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron changes by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 953.5 yuan/nickel point [4][5] Strategy - Inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks, material costs have risen, and there are signs of a stop - fall and rebound in stainless steel prices. The subsequent demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored. Unilateral: neutral; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are experiencing fluctuations due to weak supply and demand fundamentals, influenced by macroeconomic sentiments and recent U.S. inflation data [1][2] - The main contract for tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 271,260 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.66% increase, although market sentiment cooled during the day [1] - Supply constraints persist, particularly from Myanmar, where mining activities are hindered by seasonal weather and transportation restrictions, leading to low import levels [1] Group 2 - Domestic refined tin supply is significantly impacted by annual maintenance from leading companies, although overall supply remains relatively loose with high inventory levels [2] - There is potential for marginal recovery in consumption, but the slow resumption of mining in Myanmar limits any significant increase in supply [2] - The macroeconomic environment appears supportive for tin prices, providing strong support for prices on the downside [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Report Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [3]. - Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping the decline and rebounding due to nine - week consecutive inventory drops and rising material costs. The demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 9, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 121,490 yuan/ton, closed at 120,700 yuan/ton, a - 0.67% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 100,281 (+7,501) lots, and the open interest was 80,837 (3,364) lots [1]. - In the futures market, the Shanghai nickel main contract was affected by the decline in LME nickel prices at night and the lower - than - expected domestic August CPI data during the day. Although there were some bargain - hunting purchases in the afternoon, the rebound was limited due to high inventory and capacity release expectations [1]. - In the nickel ore market, the market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode with stable prices. In the Philippines, mine quotes are firm but slightly delayed due to rainfall. A major steel mill in South China has a new tender price of 955 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hold). In Indonesia, the supply remains loose, and the September (first phase) premium is - 24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price is 123,200 yuan/ton, a 500 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous trading day. The spot trading is generally average, and the premiums of refined nickel brands are slightly adjusted [2]. - **Strategy** - For nickel, the short - term trading strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 9, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,930 yuan/ton and closed at 12,950 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 109,512 (+16,944) lots, and the open interest was 123,179 (-4,171) lots [3]. - In the futures market, the stainless steel main contract was weak at night and showed a volatile trend. During the day, it was driven by the strong trend of the black series and slightly rose to 12,980 yuan/ton, with little fluctuation until the close [3]. - In the spot market, affected by the futures market and rising raw material costs, the spot quotes increased. The supply of hot - rolled products is tight, and the inquiry and transaction situation has slightly improved. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets are 13,200 (+50) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium is 255 - 555 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron is 950.5 yuan/nickel point, a 5.00 - yuan/nickel point change from the previous day [3]. - **Strategy** - For stainless steel, the single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].