1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that PVC is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, rated as "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the PVC futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply - demand fundamentals show a pattern of oversupply. Although downstream demand has slightly improved, it is still at a low level. The cost - side support is insufficient, and the export is affected by policies and competition, making it difficult to increase significantly [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has a narrow adjustment, with an oversupply pattern. The PVC supply has increased slightly due to maintenance, and the production enterprise capacity utilization rate is 80.75%, a 2.49% increase from the previous period. The maintenance loss volume is 4.323 tons, a decrease of 0.684 tons from the previous period [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the downstream start - up is still at a low level. The start - up rate of PVC pipe sample enterprises is 42%, a 0.8% increase from last week. The start - up rate of PVC profile enterprises has increased by 1.96%. The capacity utilization rate of PVC gloves is stable at 41.28%. The export from January to September has increased, with a cumulative export of 292.16 tons [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of November 6, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.13% to 104.16 tons, with an increase of 26.42% year - on - year. The inventory in the East China region has increased, while that in the South China region has decreased [3] - **Basis**: It is neutral. The basis has weakened significantly, currently at - 111 yuan/ton [3] - **Profit**: It is bullish. The profits of both PVC production processes have decreased. The average profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises is - 769 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous period. The average profit of ethylene - based PVC production enterprises is - 465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period [3] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the disk is oscillating weakly, and the valuation is neutral [3] - **Macro - policy**: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy - chemical sector has temporarily subsided, but there are many subsequent macro - events [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to short at high levels; for arbitrage, there is no recommendation [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The PVC powder market has oscillated weakly this week. The supply is still at a high level, the demand is weak, and the cost - side support is insufficient. The spot prices in different regions are: 4600 - 4680 yuan/ton in East China, 4650 - 4710 yuan/ton in South China, 4420 - 4550 yuan/ton in Hebei, and 4580 - 4640 yuan/ton in Shandong [6] 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Output**: After the end of maintenance, the output in the Northwest has rebounded [35] - **Domestic Inventory**: The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased. Factories in various regions have reduced their inventory [43][53] - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: The average downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, with the pipe start - up rate at 42% and the profile start - up rate at 37.83% [3][67] - **Export**: The export peak season is approaching, but the export has slowed down. There is still profit space for PVC exports, but it is difficult to increase the volume due to policies and competition [75][77]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel products may show a volatile trend after challenging the previous low support level, as the arrival volume of iron ore at ports has increased significantly, port inventories are accumulating, iron ore valuations are relatively high, the consumption demand for finished products has entered the off - season, and the subsequent improvement in apparent demand is difficult. Additionally, recent macro - sentiment has weakened, and iron ore prices have declined while coking coal prices have corrected [3]. - The iron ore market is in a short - term pattern of "exhausted macro - benefits and pressured fundamentals". With high global shipments, accumulating port inventories, shrinking steel mill profits, falling hot metal production, and high finished product inventory pressure, the upside potential for iron ore prices is limited [22]. - The demand for coking coal and coke has reached a phased peak, and short - term prices may face adjustments. However, in the long - term, due to policies restricting coking coal supply elasticity and upcoming winter storage, the downward adjustment space for coking coal spot prices may be limited. If coking coal supply tightens in the fourth quarter and winter storage demand is released in mid - to late November, the overall valuation center of the black industry may rise [34]. - Ferroalloys are expected to be volatile, as they have returned to the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand after the macro - sentiment subsided, but are supported by the cost side [46]. - The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken due to the renewed expectation of glass cold repair. Although the cost side is expected to be firm, without production cuts, the valuation has limited upward elasticity. The medium - to long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the upper - and middle - stream inventories are high, restricting prices, but there is cost support below [55]. - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe will be gradually implemented this month, which may affect market supply and sentiment, but its impact is considered limited as the off - season approaches and the middle - stream inventory is high. The 01 contract of glass may continue to be highly contested until near delivery. Structurally, without unexpected production cuts, the price of the 01 contract of glass will tend to decline, but with cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of螺纹钢01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3034, 3095, and 3132 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding price changes compared to November 6. The closing prices of热卷01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3245, 3254, and 3276 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The spot prices of螺纹钢 and热卷 in different regions also showed certain changes on November 7 compared to November 6. For example, the汇总 price of螺纹钢 in China was 3226 yuan/ton, and the汇总 price of热卷 in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton [10][12]. - The卷螺差 and基差 of螺纹 steel and hot - rolled coils also had corresponding values and changes [16][10]. - The ratios of螺纹/铁矿 and螺纹/焦炭 remained stable on November 7 compared to November 6 [19]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 760.5, 740, and 722 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding基差 values. The prices of different iron ore varieties such as日照PB粉,日照卡粉, and日照超特 also decreased compared to November 6 [23]. - **Fundamentals**: - The日均铁水产量 was 234.22 million tons on November 7, showing a decreasing trend compared to previous periods. The 45港到港量 increased significantly, and the 45港库存 also continued to accumulate [27]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the仓单 costs and基差 of coking coal from different sources (such as唐山蒙5,口岸蒙5, etc.) and coke (such as日照港湿熄,晋中湿熄, etc.) had corresponding values and changes [37]. - The期货月差 of coking coal and coke also showed certain trends [37]. - **Fundamentals**: - The即期焦化利润 improved slightly, but most coking plants still suffered serious losses. The demand for coking coal and coke has reached a phased peak, and the number of steel mills under maintenance has increased [34]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: - On November 7, 2025, the硅铁基差 in Ningxia was - 26, and the spot prices in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, etc. remained stable or decreased slightly compared to previous periods. The仓单 quantity increased [46]. - **Silicon Manganese**: - The硅锰基差 in Inner Mongolia was 210 on November 7, and the spot prices in different regions also showed certain changes. The仓单 quantity increased significantly [48]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of纯碱01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1210, 1294, and 1363 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding月差 values. The基差 values in different regions such as沙河 and Qinghai also changed [56]. - The重碱 and轻碱 market prices in different regions had corresponding values on November 7, and the价差 between重碱 and轻碱 also varied by region [59]. - **Fundamentals**: - The glass cold - repair expectation may lead to a weakening of the rigid demand for soda ash. The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the medium - to long - term, and the upper - and middle - stream inventories are high [55]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of玻璃01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1091, 1225, and 1315 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding月差 values. The基差 values in different regions such as Shahe and Hubei also changed [84]. - **Fundamentals**: - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may affect market supply and sentiment, but the impact is limited due to the approaching off - season and high middle - stream inventory. The 01 contract of glass may continue to be highly contested until near delivery [83].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows a mixed performance, with aluminum futures experiencing a slight upward trend, influenced by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks led to a significant decrease in the market's expectations for a rate cut in December [1] - The recent meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders has positively impacted market sentiment regarding economic cooperation [1] Supply Dynamics - As winter approaches, northern regions are entering a production restriction phase, which is expected to affect the production of electrolytic aluminum, although the actual decline in output will take time to manifest [1] Demand Dynamics - Improved macroeconomic sentiment is boosting consumption expectations, particularly in sectors such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, which is driving demand for aluminum products [1] Market Outlook - The positive macro sentiment is expected to dominate the aluminum market, although the fundamental support remains limited. Domestic inventory levels are average, and the spot market response is muted [1] - Short-term forecasts suggest that aluminum futures will continue to operate within a strong upward channel, with resistance levels looking towards the high point of November 2024 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite positive macro - sentiment and cost - driven support from the rebound in coal futures prices, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained a volatile downward trend last week due to the oversupply in the industry. The futures price dropped to a new low of 2199 yuan/ton this year, with a cumulative decline of 4.05% to 2180 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month spread remained at a discount of 80 yuan/ton. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the macro - positive sentiment was digested, and the driving force of macro factors weakened. With high domestic methanol开工率, increasing import pressure, and high inventories at ports, although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin profit is not good, and the weak demand situation remains to be improved. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Methanol Spot Prices Declined Slightly, and Basis Discount Narrowed - In the week of October 31, 2025, the mainstream spot prices of methanol in East China, South China, and North China decreased slightly week - on - week. The basis discount between the East - China spot price and the methanol 2601 contract futures price narrowed slightly, with a basis discount of 1 yuan/ton as of the end of that week [9]. 1.2 Industry Factors Dominated, and Methanol Trended Weakly - Affected by industry oversupply, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract continued to decline last week, reaching a new low of 2199 yuan/ton this year, with a cumulative decline of 4.05% to 2180 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month spread remained at a discount of 80 yuan/ton [17]. 2. Analysis of the Methanol Market Supply - Demand Situation 2.1 Domestic Methanol Operating Rate Increased Slightly, and Weekly Output Decreased Slightly - After the holiday, with the resumption of some previously - overhauled devices, the domestic methanol supply pressure rebounded. As of the week of October 31, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.88%, up 1.67% week - on - week, 1.17% month - on - month, and 1.78% year - on - year. The average weekly methanol output reached 196.81 tons, up 2.46 tons week - on - week, 9.54 tons month - on - month, and 8.51 tons year - on - year [18]. 2.2 More Overseas Methanol Ships Arrived at Ports, and Import Pressure Rebounded - In the fourth quarter, methanol supply in regions such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America was sufficient, but international demand was weak. Some methanol was shipped to China. Although the operating rate of Iranian methanol decreased to 3.5 tons per day due to some device failures, it could still meet the shipping volume to China in the short term. In September 2025, China's methanol imports decreased to 142.69 tons month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected that China's methanol imports will remain high in the fourth quarter [21][23]. 2.3 Methanol Downstream Demand was Weak, and Olefin Profit Rebounded Slightly - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and MTBE increased slightly week - on - week, while the operating rate of acetic acid decreased slightly. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin devices decreased slightly week - on - week. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures profit was 10 yuan/ton, up 164 yuan/ton week - on - week and 142 yuan/ton month - on - month [25]. 2.4 Port Inventories Increased Slightly, and Inland Inventories Increased Slightly - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the methanol inventories at ports in East and South China reached 128.29 tons, up 1.31 tons week - on - week, 1.48 tons month - on - month, and 26.19 tons year - on - year. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 36.04 tons, up 0.5 tons week - on - week, 4.04 tons month - on - month, and down 7.65 tons year - on - year [31]. 2.5 The Profitability of Domestic Coal - to - Methanol Slightly Declined - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the manufacturing cost of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was 2275 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2525 yuan/ton. With the methanol futures 2601 contract price at 2272 yuan/ton, the loss was 3 yuan/ton, and the cost - profit rate was about - 0.13%. In Shandong, the manufacturing cost was 2343 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2593 yuan/ton, with a loss of 71 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about - 3.03%. In Inner Mongolia, the manufacturing cost was 2267 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2518 yuan/ton, with a profit of 5 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about 0.22% [34][35]. 3. Conclusion - After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the macro - positive sentiment was digested, and the driving force of macro factors weakened. With high domestic methanol operating rate, increasing import pressure, and high port inventories, although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin profit is not good, and the weak demand situation remains to be improved. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly [2][6]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the repeated macro - sentiment [2][8][9]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the repeated market sentiment [2][13]. - Coke is expected to fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - Coking coal is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the resonance of macro and sector themes [2][19]. - Logs are expected to have repeated fluctuations [2][21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the futures contract 12601 was 802.5 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan/ton (-0.25%); the position increased by 8,698 hands. The prices of imported and domestic ores remained unchanged. The basis of 12601 against Super Special increased by 2.0 yuan/ton, and the basis against Jinbuba also increased by 2.0 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For the futures contract RB2601, the closing price was 3,106 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.38%); for HC2601, it was 3,318 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.33%). The basis of RB2601 increased by 17 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2601 decreased by 3 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 30, weekly data showed that rebar production increased by 5.52 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.1 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 41.09 tons. The Ministry of Commerce and other 5 departments supported eligible commercial real estate projects to issue REITs. The 15th Five - Year Plan proposed directions for the high - quality development of the steel industry. In September 2025, national steel production data showed different trends in production volume and daily output compared with the same period last year and the previous month. In early October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased compared with the previous period [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0 [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2601 was 5550 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; for ferrosilicon 2605, it was 5648 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan. The closing price of silicomanganese 2601 was 5842 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; for silicomanganese 2605, it was 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia increased by 50 yuan/ton [14][15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to iron alloy online, on October 30, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions had different changes. The operating rates and production of ferrosilicon enterprises in Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu regions in October also changed. In January, the electricity price in Yunnan would rise, and some silicomanganese factories would reduce or stop production. Some steel mills finalized the purchase prices of ferrosilicon [14][16][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of coking coal JM2601 was 1288 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (-1.1%); for coke J2601, it was 1786.5 yuan/ton, down 14.5 yuan (-0.8%). The spot price of some coking coals and cokes changed, and the basis and spread also changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [20]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price and trading volume of log futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 changed. The prices of different types of logs in the spot market also had different daily and weekly price changes [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [24].

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing price stability, with Wuxi and Foshan's 304 cold-rolled prices holding at 12,950 CNY/ton as of October 30, 2023, while the basis has increased by 80 CNY/ton to 395 CNY/ton [1] - Nickel ore prices remain strong, with the Philippines entering the rainy season, leading to reduced supply, while Indonesia's nickel ore supply is relatively ample [1][3] - Domestic stainless steel production is on the rise, with September's output increasing by 3.35% month-on-month and 4.32% year-on-year, and October's production expected to continue this trend [2] Supply and Production - In September, 43 domestic stainless steel mills produced 3.4267 million tons of crude steel, a month-on-month increase of 11.11 million tons [2] - October's crude steel output is projected at 3.4472 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 4.75% [2] - The 300 series production in September was 1.7627 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 2.48% and a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [2] Inventory and Market Dynamics - Social inventory is slightly decreasing, but the pace is slow, with Wuxi and Foshan's 300 series social inventory at 492,200 tons, down by 2,700 tons week-on-week [2] - As of October 30, stainless steel futures inventory was 73,777 tons, a decrease of 599 tons week-on-week [2] - The market sentiment is weak, with nickel iron prices under pressure, and domestic and Indonesian iron mills facing increasing losses [3] Price Trends and Market Outlook - The nickel iron market is currently quoted between 935-940 CNY/nickel (tax included), indicating a widening psychological price gap between supply and demand [1][3] - The chromium market is also under pressure due to weak stainless steel demand, leading to increased supply pressure and declining chromium ore prices [1][3] - Overall, the macroeconomic sentiment shows improvement, but demand from downstream sectors remains insufficient, leading to increased pressure from both supply and inventory [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends. For example, natural rubber prices have risen significantly due to macro - sentiment, while synthetic rubber prices have hit a new low this year due to falling raw material prices. The prices of other products such as oils and fats, protein meals, and corn are also affected by factors such as trade relations, supply and demand, and weather [1][15]. - Different products have different outlooks. Some products may have short - term upward potential but also face risks, while others are expected to be weak in the medium - to - long term [14][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Concerned about changes in trade relations, the market sentiment remains weak. Affected by factors such as the US government shutdown, the expected meeting between Chinese and US leaders, and the supply and demand situation of soybeans and palm oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil are expected to be in a weak and volatile state [7]. - **Protein Meals**: China may purchase US soybeans, and the two types of meals may fluctuate at a high level. International trade relations and domestic supply and demand, as well as factors such as Brazilian soybean sowing progress and the impact of La Nina, affect the price of protein meals [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market fluctuates. Although there has been a short - term rebound, factors such as high yields in Northeast China and low - quality grain pressure in North China may lead to downward price pressure in the future [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand both decrease, and pig prices fluctuate. In the short term, secondary fattening affects the supply, and in the long term, the reduction of sow production capacity will gradually relieve the supply pressure [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: Driven by macro - sentiment, rubber prices have risen significantly again. It is a short - term oversold rebound. The impact of previous reserve sales has been digested, and the price may continue to rise in the short term but needs continuous macro - support [14]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Raw materials continue to fall, and the market hits a new low this year. High production and slow growth in demand lead to high inventory, and although there may be a bottom - out rebound, there is also a risk of further decline [16]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices fluctuate slightly on the strong side. Factors such as the reduction of the expected increase in production in Xinjiang and the high purchase price of cottonseed have pushed up the price. However, there is a risk of correction after the possible macro - positive factors are digested [16]. - **Sugar**: The expectation of a subsequent decrease in imports drives the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar. Internationally, the supply of sugar is expected to increase, and the domestic market may rebound in the short term but is bearish in the medium - to - long term [17]. - **Pulp**: The financial trading atmosphere drives the rise of pulp futures, but the spot and futures are still separated. The supply and demand situation is weak, and the price increase space is limited, but attention should be paid to the impact of changes in waste pulp [18]. - **Offset Paper**: The offset paper fluctuates in a narrow range. The supply pressure exists, the distributor's sales pressure is high, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general. Enterprises are more willing to stabilize prices [19]. - **Logs**: Negative factors are fermenting, and the valuation is low. Affected by factors such as concentrated port arrivals and weak sales of integrated materials, the market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [22]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the data of various varieties, including prices, production, and inventory, but does not provide a detailed analysis of these data in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of commodities are presented. The comprehensive index shows an upward trend, while the agricultural product index has a decline of 0.24% on the day, a 0.03% increase in the past 5 days, a 1.55% decline in the past month, and a 2.74% decline since the beginning of the year [178][179].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation, a medium - term outlook of oscillation and weakness, and an intraday outlook of oscillation and strength [1][5] - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Thursday [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Methanol Market Situation - Currently, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, and the external import pressure continues to increase, with the peak import volume for the year already reached, leading to high methanol inventories at ports in East and South China before the festival [5] - Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the profit of the olefin market is not good, and the situation of weak demand still needs to be improved [5] 3.2 Market Trend and Price - On Wednesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and strong trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.45% to 2255 yuan/ton [5] - The meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in Seoul, South Korea may convey positive expectations to the market, supporting the methanol market [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp rise in US stocks will reignite the sentiment in the A-share market, and the market is expected to resume its upward movement on Wednesday, maintaining a volatile upward trend [17][19]. - For treasury bond futures, the profit-taking in the cash bond market is increasing, and investors should focus on structural opportunities. While the policy risk for going long on futures bonds has decreased, the potential for a continuous decline in treasury bond yields remains limited [20][21]. - In the agricultural products sector, the price of soybeans in the US is rising, providing strong cost support for domestic soybean meal. The international sugar market is weak, while the domestic sugar market is relatively strong. The short - term trend of the oil and fat sector is slightly weak, and the corn market is experiencing increased supply and weakening prices [22][25][28]. - In the black metals sector, steel and ore prices are rising in succession, but the upside potential is limited. Coking coal and coke have support at the bottom but face resistance when rising. Iron ore prices are expected to be bearish at high levels [56][59][61]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, precious metals are experiencing a downward adjustment due to the easing of risk factors. Copper prices are waiting for a breakthrough opportunity as downstream acceptance is currently insufficient. Alumina prices are bottoming out with potential production cuts in the future [67][71][78]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the impact of sanctions on crude oil has been fully priced in, and the pressure of oversupply remains. The cost of asphalt provides no positive support, and the supply - demand situation is weakening on the margin [16]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Investment Logic**: The sharp rise in US stocks will reignite the sentiment in the A - share market. Although the stock index pulled back on Tuesday, the market is expected to resume its upward movement on Wednesday [17][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips without chasing high prices. Consider cash - and - carry arbitrage by going long on IM\IC 2512 and short on ETFs. Buy call options on the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index, the STAR Market 50 Index, and the ChiNext Index on dips [20]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Investment Logic**: The profit - taking in the cash bond market is increasing. While the policy risk for going long on futures bonds has decreased, the potential for a continuous decline in treasury bond yields remains limited [20][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on dips. Consider shorting the inter - delivery spread or flattening the yield curve (TL - 3T) [22]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Investment Logic**: The upward movement of the US soybean market is driven by the improvement in the macro environment, but the international soybean supply pressure is still high. Domestic soybean meal prices have risen significantly due to cost factors, but the upside potential is limited [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short a small amount of far - month contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle option strategy [25]. Sugar - **Investment Logic**: The international sugar market is facing increased production in major producing areas, with a weak fundamental outlook. In the domestic market, the suspension of imports of some pre - mixed powders and the start of sugar mill operations are expected to support prices in the short term [26][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international sugar price is expected to be weak in the long - term but may rebound in the short - term. The domestic market is expected to be strong in the short - term. Short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [28][29]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Investment Logic**: The production and export growth of Malaysian palm oil in October has slowed down, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly. Domestic soybean oil is slightly accumulating inventory, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, providing some support for prices. The short - term trend of the oil and fat sector is slightly weak [30][33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see in the short - term. Consider going long on dips after the price stabilizes. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [33]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Investment Logic**: The supply of corn is increasing, and the price of the futures market is expected to be weak and volatile. The US corn market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the December CBOT corn futures on dips. Wait and see for the January contract. Wait for dips to go long on the May and July contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Live Pigs - **Investment Logic**: The short - term pressure on live pig supply has improved, but the overall inventory is still high, and the supply pressure remains. The price of live pigs is expected to face some downward pressure [37][38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short a small amount of contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle option strategy [39]. Peanuts - **Investment Logic**: The spot price of peanuts is falling, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile. The new - season peanut quality is lower than last year, and the market is waiting for the supply to increase [40][41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the January and May contracts. Sell the PK601 - P - 7600 option [41]. Eggs - **Investment Logic**: The number of culled laying hens has increased, and the egg price has stabilized. The supply of laying hens is still at a high level, and the demand is average. The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term [42][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close out previous short positions and wait and see. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [46]. Apples - **Investment Logic**: The quality of the new - season apples is poor, and the good - fruit rate is low. The cost of making apple warehouse receipts is high, and the inventory is expected to be lower than expected. The apple price has shown a strong trend recently, but the upward potential is limited [47][49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close out previous long positions and wait and see. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Investment Logic**: The cotton purchase is at its peak, and the purchase price is stable. The demand side has not changed significantly. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations have reached a preliminary consensus, and the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly strong [52][53]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US cotton is expected to be range - bound. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly strong. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [53]. Black Metals Steel - **Investment Logic**: The demand for steel is gradually recovering, and the inventory is shifting from the factory to the social level. The price of coking coal is rising, providing support for steel prices. However, the high inventory of plate products and the slowdown in capital release in the fourth quarter still pose pressure on steel prices [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: The steel price is expected to be slightly strong and volatile. Go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Wait and see for options [58]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Logic**: The price of coking coal is strong, and the second - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented. The supply of coking coal is restricted by safety regulations, but the increase in imported Mongolian coal and the reduction in steel mill demand limit the upward potential of prices [59][60]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile at high levels. Close out long positions and consider going long on dips in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [61]. Iron Ore - **Investment Logic**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The domestic iron element inventory has been increasing since the third quarter, and the price of iron ore is expected to be bearish [62][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be under pressure at high levels. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [64]. Ferroalloys - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic sentiment is fading, and the supply - demand pressure in the ferroalloy market remains. The production of silicon iron and manganese silicon is still at a high level, while the demand is affected by steel production cuts [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider shorting as the supply - demand pressure persists. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell an out - of - the - money straddle option combination [65][66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Investment Logic**: The improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the expected cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict have reduced market risk aversion, leading to a downward adjustment in precious metal prices [67][69]. - **Trading Strategy**: The precious metal market may continue to adjust. Close out previous long positions and wait for a signal of the end of the correction. Aggressive investors can short with a stop - loss. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [69]. Copper - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic sentiment has improved, and the supply of copper ore is facing more disruptions. The expected processing fee for next year is very low. The supply of electrolytic copper is relatively tight, but the downstream consumption is weak, and the acceptance of high prices is low [72][73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips and beware of short - term pullbacks. Hold a long position in the inter - market spread. Consider a long position in the inter - delivery spread after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Wait and see for options [74]. Alumina - **Investment Logic**: The supply of alumina is in surplus, and the pressure is increasing as the downstream inventory build - up is completed. High - cost alumina producers may face more cost pressure, and future production cuts are expected. The price is currently bottoming out [77][78]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to bottom out in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [78][79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Investment Logic**: The global trade situation is easing, and the macro - economic sentiment is positive. Overseas electrolytic aluminum production is decreasing, and the domestic real estate completion area has shown a slight recovery. The medium - term trend of aluminum prices is expected to be strong [80][81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to be strong and volatile. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [82]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic outlook is improving, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing cost support. The demand is resilient, and the low factory inventory supports the price. The short - term price of ADC12 is expected to remain firm [83][84]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of aluminum alloy is expected to be strong and volatile following the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [84]. Zinc - **Investment Logic**: The domestic zinc concentrate market is tight, and the processing fee is decreasing. The supply of refined zinc is expected to increase, while the demand is expected to weaken as the peak season ends. The LME zinc price is relatively strong due to low inventory. The short - term trend is range - bound [85][87]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close out profitable long positions and wait and see. Consider shorting at high levels if the export volume is low. Consider a long position in SHFE zinc and a short position in LME zinc based on the export situation. Wait and see for options [87]. Lead - **Investment Logic**: Some lead - acid battery manufacturers are reducing production to avoid inventory risks, while the supply of recycled lead is expected to increase. The lead price may continue to decline as the supply increases and the demand enters the off - season [89][91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions and beware of the impact of capital on the lead price. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell an out - of - the - money call option [91]. Nickel - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic situation is favorable, but the supply - demand relationship is loose. The nickel price is expected to remain within a range [92]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided in the text. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Investment Logic**: The impact of sanctions on crude oil has been fully priced in, and the pressure of oversupply remains [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided in the text. Other Energy and Chemical Products - **Investment Logic and Trading Strategy**: Each product has its own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. For example, asphalt has no positive cost support and weakening supply - demand on the margin; PVC is in a weak and volatile state; glass prices are rising due to improved sales and production [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The trading strategies for each product vary, including shorting, reducing long positions, and waiting and seeing [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][5] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices are likely to show strong oscillatory trends driven by macro sentiment [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are predicted to have wide-range oscillations [2][11] - Coke is expected to have a strong oscillatory trend [2][14] - Coking coal is supported by fundamentals and is likely to have a strong oscillatory trend [2][15] - Logs are expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 792.5 yuan/ton, up 6.0 yuan or 0.76%. The previous day's position was 548,944 lots, a decrease of 9,902 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) increased by 6.0 yuan, PB fines (61.5%) by 4.0 yuan, and the price of Jinbuba (61%) decreased by 4.0 yuan. The basis of (12601, against Super Special) decreased by 6.0 yuan, and the basis of (12601, against Jinbuba) decreased by 10.3 yuan [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,091 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.49%. For hot-rolled coil HC2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,305 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.85%. Among spot prices, the prices of rebar in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 10 - 20 yuan, and the prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 10 - 20 yuan. The basis of (RB2601) increased by 19 yuan, and the basis of (HC2601) increased by 4 yuan [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the suggestions on formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development were released, which mentioned promoting the high-quality development of the steel industry. On October 23, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that the production of rebar increased by 5.91 tons, hot-rolled coil by 0.62 tons, and the total inventory of rebar decreased by 18.94 tons, hot-rolled coil by 4.27 tons. In September 2025, the national crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [7][9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2601 was 5,564 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the closing price of silicomanganese 2601 was 5,790 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. Among spot prices, the price of manganese ore increased by 0.1 yuan/ton degree. The spot-futures price difference of ferrosilicon was -344 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese was -110 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in various regions was 5,100 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price range of 75 ferrosilicon was 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5,550 - 5,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan, and the southern quotation was 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. In October, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanxi, and Chongqing was 37.5%, a decrease of 6.25% compared to September, and the output was expected to be 0.9 tons, a decrease of 0.06 tons compared to September [11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price of coking coal JM2601 was 1,263.5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 1.2%, and the closing price of coke J2601 was 1,779.5 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 1.3%. Among spot prices, the price of Jinquan Mongolian 5 coking coal increased by 25 yuan, and the price of Shanxi quasi-primary coke delivered to the factory increased by 50 yuan. The basis of JM2601 in Shanxi decreased by 15.0 yuan, and the basis of J2601 in Shanxi quasi-primary delivered to the factory increased by 28.0 yuan [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [16] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Logs - **Fundamentals**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price decreased by 4.2%, the trading volume decreased by 9.2%, and the position decreased by 49.1%. For the 2601 contract, the closing price decreased by 5.1%, the trading volume increased by 415.9%, and the position decreased by 11.7%. Among spot prices, most of the prices of various types of logs remained unchanged, with only a few showing slight decreases [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [20] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]