宏观情绪

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生猪:现货表现不及预期,近端弱势
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 01:57
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot market performance of live pigs is below expectations, with near - term weakness. The market pressure is high due to factors such as the limited increase in demand and the planned increase in group slaughter volume in August. The September contract is expected to be mainly weak, and the price difference structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot prices**: The spot price in Henan is 14,430 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Sichuan, it is 13,700 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Guangdong, it is 15,940 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 300 [2] - **Futures prices**: The price of the live pig 2509 contract is 14,055 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 20; the live pig 2511 contract is 13,850 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 35; the live pig 2601 contract is 14,180 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35 [2] - **Trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume of the live pig 2509 contract is 31,356 lots, an increase of 2311 from the previous day, and the open interest is 40,971 lots, a decrease of 4228 from the previous day; the live pig 2511 contract has a trading volume of 24,661 lots, an increase of 7289 from the previous day, and an open interest of 51,204 lots, an increase of 583 from the previous day; the live pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 13,759 lots, a decrease of 3042 from the previous day, and an open interest of 40,395 lots, an increase of 180 from the previous day [2] - **Price differences**: The basis of the live pig 2509 contract is 375 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 120; the live pig 2511 contract basis is 580 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 135; the live pig 2601 contract basis is 250 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 65; the 9 - 11 spread is 205 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15; the 11 - 1 spread is - 330 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 70 [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3] 3. Market Logic - The market had a consistent expectation of price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume - reduction and price - pulling were below expectations. There is panic among retail farmers and secondary fattening groups. The market pressure is high in August, and the September contract is expected to be weak. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, presenting a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the price difference structure has switched to backwardation [4]
中原期货期权周报-20250804
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 23:30
Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The A-share market showed a pattern of rising and then falling this week, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks. Different index futures and options contracts had various performance indicators, and corresponding investment strategies were proposed for option trading [2]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain high in the short term, with attention paid to the support at the 20,000 level [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to face pressure in the short term, with support levels of 900 - 1000 for coking coal and around 1500 for coke [3]. - The urea price of the UR2509 contract is expected to test the support at 1680 - 1700 yuan/ton, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro - impacts and autumn fertilizer performance [3]. - Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. - For eggs, short - term operation is to short on rebounds next week, and the spot price is not expected to decline significantly due to Mid - Autumn Festival stocking [3]. - The live pig market is expected to remain range - bound next week [4]. Summary by Variety Options - This week, the A - share market rose and then fell, with daily trading volume approaching 2 trillion. Small and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap stocks. Different index futures and options contracts had changes in indicators such as basis, volume, open interest, and implied volatility. Trend investors can focus on strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can sell wide straddles to short volatility [2]. Aluminum - In July, the manufacturing PMI declined, and the exchange introduced risk - control measures, cooling domestic market sentiment. The US tariff policy has uncertainties. On the fundamental side, there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at the 20,000 level [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - This week, the daily output and inventory of raw coal and clean coal decreased. Some areas had reduced production due to over - production inspections. The online transaction of coking coal had more auctions, and the fifth round of coke price increase was not implemented. The market is expected to face pressure in the short term, with support levels of 900 - 1000 for coking coal and around 1500 for coke [3]. Urea - The domestic urea market price was stable over the weekend. In August, there will be both plant overhauls and restarts, and the daily output is expected to fluctuate around 19 - 200,000 tons. The upstream inventory increased, and the port inventory decreased. The UR2509 contract is expected to test the support at 1680 - 1700 yuan/ton [3]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The production of five major steel products increased while demand decreased. Rebar had a decline in both production and demand, and inventory increased. Hot - rolled coil had an increase in both production and demand, and inventory continued to increase slightly. Due to the cooling of macro - sentiment and weak overseas non - farm data, steel prices decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton over the weekend and are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. Eggs - Last week, the national egg spot price declined steadily and then stabilized over the weekend. There were differences in the spot market, with inventory pressure from cold - storage eggs. The futures had a large premium over the spot, and there was a lot of industrial delivery in July. Next week, the strategy is to short on rebounds [3]. Live Pigs - Last week, the live pig spot price first declined and then rose, with an overall stable trend. The spot market had high supply and weak consumption. The futures were relatively strong due to the repair of the discount structure and expectations of future consumption improvement. After this round of decline, the basis was repaired, and the market is expected to remain range - bound next week [4].
广发期货《有色》日报-20250803
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 10:53
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term price is under pressure due to the disappointment of the 50% US copper tariff expectation, with the main price range expected to be 77,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The non - US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak actual demand", and the spot contradiction is gradually resolved [1]. Aluminum - The short - term main contract of alumina is expected to run in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to arrange short positions on rallies in the medium term. Aluminum prices are under pressure in the short term, with the main contract price range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of inventory reduction and demand changes [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The subsequent demand will remain weak, suppressing the upward momentum of prices. However, the downward space is limited due to the high cost of scrap aluminum. The disk is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, with the main reference range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The short - term zinc price is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the supply improvement of refined zinc lags behind, and the demand is affected by the seasonal off - season [7]. Tin - It is recommended to wait and see. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes after the resumption of production in Myanmar [9]. Nickel - In the short term, the disk is expected to be adjusted within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The macro - expectation is changeable, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [11]. Stainless Steel - The short - term disk is mainly volatile, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm. The supply pressure is difficult to reduce in the short term, and the terminal demand is weak [12][13]. Lithium Carbonate - The main price is expected to fluctuate widely around 65,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading without positions, and consider shorting the near - term contract and longing the far - term contract for inter - period trading. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and supply adjustments [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.91% to 78,565 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 14.18% to 844 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 60 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% to 66,837 tons, and imports increased by 18.74% to 30.05 tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 23.23% to 56.09 tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.44% to 20,580 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 20 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production decreased by 0.19% to 725.81 tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 360.90 tons. The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.06% to 54.40 tons [2]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton. The spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.49% to 61.50 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.30% to 25.50 tons. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.59% to 3.26 tons [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.68% to 22,300 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 20.54 yuan/ton to - 1602 yuan/ton [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 45 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 58.51 tons, and imports increased by 34.97% to 3.61 tons. The social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots increased by 4.98% to 10.32 tons [7]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.97% to 265,500 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 166.76% to - 7.01 dollars/ton. The import loss decreased by 5.93% to - 15,773.30 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 380 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44% to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94% to 13,810 tons. The social inventory increased by 2.36% to 9,958 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.46% to 121,250 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 62.17% to - 3,863 yuan/ton [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2509 - 2510 decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: In June, Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, and imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons. The social inventory increased by 2.97% to 40,338 tons [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures spread increased by 32.50% to 265 yuan/ton [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2509 - 2510 remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 tons, and imports decreased by 12.48% to 10.95 tons. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.20% to 51.48 tons [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 1.30% to 72,000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 48.70% to 4,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 60 yuan/ton to - 280 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.41% to 81,530 tons, and imports decreased by 16.31% to 17,698 tons. The total inventory increased by 2.27% to 88,888 tons [14].
镍:多空博弈加剧,镍价窄幅震荡,不锈钢:宏观淡化回归基本面,钢价低位震荡运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 06:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is affected by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine its elasticity. Nickel prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The contradiction at the mine end has faded, and the smelting end logic leads to a narrow - range fluctuation judgment. Stainless steel is expected to show a low - level oscillation pattern, with macro hype sentiment fading and the influence of actual verification increasing [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: After the contradiction at the nickel mine end fades, the smelting end logic suggests a narrow - range fluctuation. The premium of Indonesian nickel mines has回调, and the cash cost of pyrometallurgy has decreased by 1.4%. The global visible inventory of refined nickel shows a mild increasing trend, and the expected increase in low - cost supply in the long - term still drags down the market. However, the de - stocking of nickel - iron inventory at a high level slightly boosts the nickel price valuation [1]. - **Macro Factors**: Domestically, the Politburo meeting emphasizes implementing previous supportive measures, and the market valuation may回调 marginally. Overseas, the weakening US dollar supports non - ferrous metals but suppresses industrial external demand expectations [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons [3][4]. Stainless Steel Market - **Production Arrangement**: In August, the stainless - steel production arrangement is 3.23 million tons, with a marginal increase of 0% year - on - year and 3% month - on - month. The cumulative year - on - year increase has slightly declined to 2.1%. In Indonesia, the August production arrangement is 440,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth is 1.2% [2]. - **Cost and Profit**: The nickel - iron price has been revised up to 920 yuan/line, and the cash cost of stainless - steel billets is about 12,584 yuan/ton. The warehousing profit has回调 from a high of 3.0% to 1.4% [2]. - **Inventory**: After the production cut in June - July, the stainless - steel inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of about 5%, but it is still 5% higher than last year. The nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 10% month - on - month but is 56% higher year - on - year, which may drag down the steel price [2][5]. Market News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6]. - China Enfi's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per single line [6]. - Environmental violations have been found in Indonesia's Morowali Industrial Park, and possible fines may be imposed on verified illegal companies [6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6][7]. - The production of some nickel - iron smelting plants in Indonesia has been suspended due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. Futures Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,770, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,840 [8]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 106,856, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 124,683 [8].
镍周报:宏观情绪转冷,镍价震荡下跌-20250802
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-02 14:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of over - supply in the stainless steel and ferronickel markets is difficult to reverse. With weak demand, downstream smelters lack the motivation to expand production. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will continue to decline gradually, driving the price center of the industrial chain to move down further. It is recommended to sell short on rallies. The short - term operating range of the main contract of SHFE nickel is expected to be between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel contract is between 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [12]. Summaries by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Nickel Ore**: Although the impact of the rainy season persists, with the release of government nickel ore quotas and weak downstream demand, the price of nickel ore is weak. The procurement volume of smelters for pyrometallurgical ore has decreased significantly, and the price of hydrometallurgical ore is stable but weak. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will continue to decline due to demand drag [12]. - **Ferronickel**: On the demand side, the inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the futures and spot prices have shown signs of stabilization. Some traders are speculatively stocking up, providing some support for stainless steel demand. However, the current inventory is still high, and the production schedule in July only decreased slightly, so the short - term supply - demand contradiction is still large. On the supply side, some ferronickel production lines in Indonesia were converted to produce nickel matte in July, and it is expected that ferronickel production will decrease slightly. Overall, the oversupply pressure of ferronickel has slightly eased, but the situation is difficult to reverse significantly in the short term, and the profit of iron plants is expected to fluctuate at a low level [12]. - **Intermediate Products**: For high - grade nickel matte, the premium over ferronickel is at a high level recently, and the production drive is strong. Some ferronickel production lines have started to convert to produce high - grade nickel matte, and it is expected that the supply in July will increase significantly compared to the previous month. For MHP, the supply of hydrometallurgical ore is stable, and the production is normal, so the output is expected to remain at a high level. Overall, the supply of intermediate products is expected to loosen [12]. - **Refined Nickel**: This week, the nickel price fluctuated weakly, closing at 119,770 yuan/ton on Friday, a 3.69% decrease from last week. At the macro level, the US reciprocal tariffs have basically been implemented, and Powell's hawkish statement during the week led to a strong rise in the US dollar index, suppressing the non - ferrous metals sector. In the spot market, as the futures price declined, the trading enthusiasm increased, and the spot premium slightly rebounded [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Refined Nickel Spot**: The price of Jinchuan nickel was 125,710 yuan/ton, up 3,170 yuan/ton or 2.59% from last week; the price of Russian nickel was 123,960 yuan/ton, up 3,070 yuan/ton or 2.54% from last week. The LME closing price was 15,265 US dollars, up 0.13% from last week, and the SHFE closing price was 119,770 yuan, down 3.69% from last week [15]. - **Futures**: The LME nickel premium was (204.7) US dollars/ton, down 10.3 US dollars/ton from last week, and the SHFE nickel contract showed a decline [15]. - **Nickel Premium**: The Russian nickel premium was 350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. The LME nickel Cash/3M discount was 192.79 US dollars/ton, slightly rebounding from last week [23]. - **Secondary Nickel Price**: The domestic high - grade ferronickel ex - factory price was 903 - 922 yuan/nickel point, with an average price increase of 3 yuan/nickel point from last week. The domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was 27,130 - 27,610 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 90 yuan/ton from last week [26]. 3. Cost Side - **Nickel Ore**: The port inventory in China continued to increase. As of August 1, the nickel ore port inventory was 9.9436 million tons, a 0.7% increase from the same period last week. The price of nickel ore was under pressure. On August 1, the price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was 52.1 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.1 US dollars/ton from last week; the price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was 24.8 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.2 US dollars/ton from last week; the price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore from the Philippines was flat from last week [33][36]. - **Ferronickel**: In June, the production of Indonesian MHP was 39,000 nickel tons, basically flat month - on - month; the production of high - grade nickel matte was 25,000 nickel tons, a significant month - on - month increase [43]. - **Intermediate Products**: As of August 1, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP was 12,496 US dollars/metal ton, and the MHP coefficient relative to LME nickel was 0.845, unchanged from last week; the price of high - grade nickel matte was 13,053 US dollars/metal ton, and the high - grade nickel matte coefficient relative to LME nickel was 0.88, unchanged from last week [48]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In June 2025, the national refined nickel output reached 34,500 tons, remaining at a historically high level [53]. - **Demand**: The demand for refined nickel is related to the production and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the terminal demand in the manufacturing and real estate industries [54]. - **Import and Export**: Not specifically analyzed in detail in this part of the summary. - **Inventory**: This week, the global refined nickel inventory decreased slightly. According to Mysteel data, the visible inventory in China and LME on August 1 was 242,000 tons, a decrease of 422 tons from the same period last month [62]. - **Cost**: Not specifically analyzed in detail in this part of the summary. 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: Not specifically analyzed in detail in this part of the summary. - **Demand**: The demand for nickel sulfate is related to the loading volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors [70]. - **Cost and Price**: Not specifically analyzed in detail in this part of the summary. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2023 to 2025, the total supply of nickel generally exceeded the total demand, and the supply - demand gap showed an increasing trend in 2025. In 2025, the total demand was 3.6024 million nickel tons, and the total supply was 3.7688 million nickel tons, with a gap of 166,400 nickel tons [78].
聚酯数据日报-20250801
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 06:15
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has weakened. The supply of domestic PTA production capacity has contracted, and the port inventory of PTA has declined. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the profitability of alkyl transfer and TDP is not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX has remained at around $90. The market's port inventory has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved as the basis weakens. However, the basis of PTA has weakened, and the market's willingness to replenish has declined [2]. - The coal price has rebounded, leading to an increase in the price of ethylene glycol. The macro - sentiment has slightly weakened, and the chemical industry has followed the weakening sentiment of bulk commodities. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially those in Saudi Arabia, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the market outlook and has been boosting the price of ethylene glycol. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. The polyester production and sales have weakened, the profit of downstream weaving has shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data Changes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price increased from 528.6 yuan/barrel on July 30, 2025, to 531.3 yuan/barrel on July 31, 2025, with a change of 2.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The price decreased from 1014.6 yuan/ton to 947.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 67.62 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA/SC (Ratio)**: It decreased from 1.2641 to 1.2453, a change of - 0.0189 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: The price dropped from 866 to 858, a change of - 8 [2]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: It decreased from 277 to 250, a change of - 27 [2]. - **PTA Main Contract Futures Price**: It decreased from 4856 yuan/ton to 4808 yuan/ton, a change of - 48.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Price**: It decreased from 4860 to 4825 yuan/ton, a change of - 35.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: It increased from 179.3 yuan/ton to 189.0 yuan/ton, a change of 9.7 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: It decreased from 185.3 yuan/ton to 177.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 8.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Main Contract Basis**: It decreased from (10) to (15), a change of - 5.0 [2]. - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: Remained unchanged at 29738 [2]. - **MEG Main Contract Futures Price**: It decreased from 4450 yuan/ton to 4414 yuan/ton, a change of - 36.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - Naphtha**: It decreased from (112.68) to (116.87) yuan/ton, a change of - 4.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Domestic Market**: It decreased from 4527 to 4503 yuan/ton, a change of - 24.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Main Contract Basis**: It decreased from 63 to 60, a change of - 3.0 [2]. 2. Industry Chain Operating Rates - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 77.29% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Decreased from 79.45% to 76.64%, a change of - 2.81% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 58.13% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Remained unchanged at 86.28% [2]. 3. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - **POY150D/48F**: Remained unchanged at 6760 [2]. - **POY Cash Flow**: Increased from (162) to (124), a change of 38.0 [2]. - **FDY150D/96F**: Increased from 7060 to 7065, a change of 5.0 [2]. - **FDY Cash Flow**: Increased from (362) to (319), a change of 43.0 [2]. - **DTY150D/48F**: Increased from 7955 to 7960, a change of 5.0 [2]. - **DTY Cash Flow**: Increased from (167) to (124), a change of 43.0 [2]. - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Decreased from 6665 to 6650, a change of - 15 [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: Increased from 93 to 116, a change of 23.0 [2]. - **Semi - Bright Polyester Chip**: Decreased from 5920 to 5905, a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **Polyester Chip Cash Flow**: Increased from (102) to (79), a change of 23.0 [2]. 4. Production and Sales Rates - **Long - Filament Production and Sales Rate**: Decreased from 110% to 27%, a change of - 83% [2]. - **Short - Fiber Production and Sales Rate**: Increased from 42% to 49%, a change of 7% [2]. - **Polyester Chip Production and Sales Rate**: Decreased from 89% to 72%, a change of - 17% [2]. 5. Device Maintenance - A 7.2 - million - ton PTA plant of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on the raw material logistics situation [2].
化工日报:宏观情绪降温,关注成本端走势-20250801
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 06:00
宏观情绪降温,关注成本端走势 市场要闻与数据 1、国内外重要会议告一段落,部分内容表述略不及市场预期,市场情绪有所回落。 2、国家统计局数据显示7月份制造业PMI为49.3%,环比下降0.4%,制造业景气水平有所回落,对市场情绪产生一 定影响; 市场分析 化工日报 | 2025-08-01 成本端,地缘局势有再度扰动油价,特朗普缩短对俄罗斯宽限时间,二级制裁引发市场对俄罗斯原油供应中断担 忧。同时特朗普警告伊朗不要重启核设施否则可能会再次发动轰炸,中东隐忧再起也支持油价反弹;但基本面方 面EIA数据显示美国原油及成品油均累库,供需面不佳。 PX方面,上上个交易日PXN258美元/吨(环比变动-10.05美元/吨)。近期亚洲PX负荷基本持稳,基本面变化不大, 市场主要交易宏观情绪。PX延续低库存格局,但缺乏更多利好下现货浮动价持稳,在需求端没有明显利空的情况 下,考虑到新PTA装置对PX的刚需采购,PXN下方有支撑,关注宏观以及原油走势。 TA方面,TA主力合约现货基差 -15 元/吨(环比变动-5元/吨),PTA现货加工费176元/吨(环比变动+8元/吨),主力 合约盘面加工费374元/吨(环比变动-15元/ ...
宏观情绪降温,丙烯弱势整理
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 05:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; no specific rating for inter - period and inter - variety [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Macro sentiment has eased, but the fundamentals of propylene have not improved significantly, and the propylene market is mainly in a weak consolidation. Supply pressure persists, demand is lack of resilience, and the cost side has short - term support but also uncertainties. Propylene prices may continue to fluctuate weakly [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene's main contract closing price is 6545 yuan/ton (-25), East China spot price is 6350 yuan/ton (+0), North China spot price is 6245 yuan/ton (-5), East China basis is -195 yuan/ton (+25), and North China basis is -300 yuan/ton (+20) [1] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene operating rate is 73% (-1%), PDH capacity utilization has increased, and production has increased month - on - month. The profit margins of different production methods vary, and the operating rates of related production methods also show different trends [1][2] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - Propylene import profit is -257 yuan/ton (-74), and the price differences between different regions (such as South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR) are presented [1][39] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Different downstream products have different operating rates and profit margins. For example, PP powder operating rate is 36% (-2.95%) with a production profit of 105 yuan/ton (+5); epoxy propane operating rate is 73% (+0%) with a production profit of -26 yuan/ton (+104), etc. [1] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - Propylene factory inventory is 31750 tons (+1520) [1]
PX/PTA跟随油价上涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 05:04
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR, suggesting to pay attention to the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of the month [3] Core Viewpoints - PX/PTA prices follow the rise of oil prices. Geopolitical situations have disrupted oil prices, and the market is concerned about the interruption of Russian oil supply. The Middle - East situation also supports the rebound of oil prices. PX maintains a low - inventory pattern, and PXN has support. PTA's own fundamentals have little change, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1] - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 88.7% (a 0.4% increase compared to the previous period). After the terminal weaving replenished raw materials, the inventory pressure of filament factories decreased significantly. The polyester load remains strong in the short term. The short - fiber factory has different pressure levels, and the bottle - chip load is expected to remain stable in the short term [2] - The strategy includes a neutral stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR, shorting PTA processing fees at high levels for cross - variety trading, and no cross - period trading strategy [3] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Price and Basis - The report presents figures such as the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [4][5] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures show PX processing fees (PXN: PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [4][5] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [4][5] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [4][5] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show the weekly social inventory of PTA, the monthly social inventory of PX, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [4][5] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [4][5] 7. PF Detailed Data - Figures cover the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, the spread between original and regenerated fibers, and the operating rates and profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [4][5] 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fees, bottle - chip export processing fees, bottle - chip export profits, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [4][5]
《能源化工》日报-20250731
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 02:08
1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply is stable, but 8 - month downstream PTA device maintenance increases and terminal demand lacks improvement. Its trend follows macro - sentiment and oil prices. PX09 is treated with caution and short - bias, and the PX - SC spread is expanded at low levels [2]. - PTA: Current load is around 80%, but 8 - month device maintenance increases. Supply - demand improves in the short - term but weakens in the medium - term. The absolute price follows the cost and market sentiment. TA is short - biased above 4900, TA9 - 1 is in a rolling reverse spread operation, and the PTA disk processing fee is expanded at low levels [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply turns loose in August, and demand is weak in the traditional off - season. It is greatly affected by the macro in the short - term. EGO9 is on the sidelines, and 9 - 1 is in a reverse spread operation [2]. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand is weak in the short - term, and the absolute price follows the raw materials. The operation strategy is the same as TA, and the PF disk processing fee fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip: Supply is high, demand follows up generally, and the processing fee increase is limited. The absolute price follows the cost. PR is the same as PTA, and the PR main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 600 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry The core contradiction of the urea fundamentals is unresolved, and the market is in a shock pattern. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, and the release of export demand needs to be tracked [10]. Crude Oil Industry Overnight oil prices rose, driven by macro and geopolitical factors. In the short - term, the upward momentum of prices depends on the continuation of geopolitical tensions. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, with short - term long - bias [55]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are stable for now, and it is expected that the liquid caustic soda price will be stable this week. Attention should be paid to risk avoidance [43]. - PVC: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are rising, and export expectations are good. However, the overall supply exceeds demand, and short - term caution is recommended [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply - demand improves slightly in the first quarter, but the destocking amplitude is limited. It follows the overall market sentiment in the short - term, and the main contract BZ2603 follows the oil price and styrene [46]. - Styrene: Supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the basis is weakening. The price is under pressure, and EB09 is in a rolling short - bias operation [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and there is potential restocking demand. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. PP is short - biased (7200 - 7300), and LP01 is held [50]. Methanol Industry Inland maintenance will peak in early August, production is high, ports are slightly accumulating inventory, and the basis is weakening. In August, imports are still high, and downstream demand is weak. The MTO09 profit can be expanded at low levels [58]. 3. Summary by Catalog Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry showed small fluctuations on July 30th compared with July 29th. For example, Brent crude oil (September) rose by 1.0%, and POY150/48 price rose by 0.6% [2]. - **开工率**: Asian PX, PTA, and MEG comprehensive开工率 showed different degrees of change, with polyester comprehensive开工率 rising by 0.5% [2]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of different contracts showed small fluctuations, and spot prices in different regions also had slight changes. For example, the 05 - contract of urea futures rose by 0.28% [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 1.26% on August 1st compared with July 31st, and factory inventory increased by 6.81% week - on - week [10]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 31st, Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose, and spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 changed [55]. - **Inventory and Production**: US crude oil production increased, and commercial crude oil inventory increased by 769.8 barrels compared with the previous week [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of East China calcium - carbide PVC increased by 0.8% [43]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Caustic soda and PVC开工率 changed slightly, and inventory also had certain fluctuations. For example, PVC total social inventory increased by 3.9% [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Pure benzene and styrene prices and spreads changed. For example, the price of pure benzene in East China spot rose by 0.7% [46]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries changed, and port inventory increased [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP showed small fluctuations. For example, the price of East China PP fiber decreased by 0.28% [50]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of PE and PP devices and their downstream industries changed, and enterprise and social inventory also had certain changes [50]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed. For example, the MA2509 closing price decreased by 0.62% [58]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Methanol enterprise and port inventory changed, and upstream and downstream开工率 also had certain fluctuations [58].