1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various agricultural products, including fats and oils, protein meals, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, cotton, sugar, and logs, and provides short - to medium - term outlooks for each product [1][4][5]. - Overall, most products are expected to show a trend of either fluctuating or fluctuating weakly, with fats and oils likely to continue weakening due to the resonance of macro and industrial factors [1]. 3. Summary Grouped by Related Catalogs 3.1 Quotes and Views - **Fats and Oils**: Due to the ease of the Middle - East situation, the sharp decline in crude oil prices, and favorable weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas, US soybeans fell on Monday, and China's three major fats and oils generally weakened. In the short term, fats and oils may continue to weaken [1][2][4]. - **Protein Meals**: Internationally, the inspection volume of US soybean exports was lower than expected, but the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was also lower than expected. Domestically, the supply and demand of soybean meal both increased, while the supply and demand of rapeseed meal were both weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: The price of corn in different regions showed different trends. In the short term, long - position holders took profits, leading to a large decline in the market. In the medium term, based on the expected production - demand gap, the driving force is still upward, but the potential negative impact of import auctions should be noted [6][7]. - **Hogs**: In the short term, the proportion of large - hog slaughter increased, and the average slaughter weight continued to decline. In the medium term, the number of slaughtered hogs is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, the current production capacity is still at a high level. The pig price is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: After the external shock ended, the trading focus may return to the fundamentals. The supply has an expected increase, while the demand has an expected decrease. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate weakly [10][11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market followed the sharp decline in crude oil. The external situation may be temporarily controllable, but the market correction may not be over yet [12]. - **Cotton**: New cotton is expected to increase in production in 25/26. The demand side has entered the off - season. The cotton price pulled up at the end of the session, filling the gap. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,000 - 13,800 yuan/ton [13]. - **Sugar**: The external market is weak, while the domestic market is strong. In the long term, the sugar price has a downward driving force due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season. In the short term, the downward space is limited [14]. - **Pulp**: After a sharp rise and then a sharp fall, the supply - demand weakness is the core. The futures price is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. - **Logs**: As the delivery approaches, the fluctuation intensifies. The short - term fundamentals are in a weak balance, and the bottom of the market has support [16][17]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions that there are variety data monitoring sections for fats and oils, corn/starch, hogs, cotton/yarn, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data details are provided [19][50][69][109][122][137][156].

看期货热点,到 3 金十期货 Eleffa 2025 06-17 15:54 6 期市动态雷达 今日主力合约涨跌分布 今日主力合约市场中50个合约上涨,26个合 约下跌。市场呈现明显的多头情绪,更多资金 和交易活动集中在上涨品种上。 主力合约涨跌排行 (%) 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% 涨幅居前的品种： 尿素2509(+3.99%)、20号胶2507(+1.55%)、乙二醇 2509(+1.55%)。这些品种受供需影响显着。 数据透视线索 26 跌幅居前的品种： 原油2507(-2.05%)、苯乙烯2507(-1.7%)、沪金 2508(-1.46%)，可能受空头力量增强或基本面利空影响。 资金流向(亿元) 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 资金流入最多的品种： 菜油2509(7.33亿元)、十年国债2509(5.0亿 元)、豆粕2509(3.7亿元)，这些品种吸引了大量主力资金关注。 资金流出最多的品种:中证1000 2506(-35.23亿元)、沪深300 2506(-33.3亿元)、中证500 2506(-25.22亿元) ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-06-05 商品氛围转暖，天胶低位反弹 油脂：中加贸易关系存改善预期，菜油表现仍较弱 蛋⽩粕：现货情绪降温，盘面跟随回调 ⽟⽶/淀粉：购销平淡，期货价格震荡运行 ⽣猪：出栏增加，猪价继续下跌 橡㬵：商品氛围转暖，盘面低位反弹 合成橡㬵：原料企稳，盘面小幅收涨 纸浆：近月显著回调更为明显，纸浆维持震荡判断 棉花：利多较为缺乏，棉价偏弱运行 ⽩糖：下榨季预期供需宽松，糖价走弱运行 原⽊：岚山降价，盘面承压 【异动品种】 天然橡㬵观点：商品氛围转暖，盘⾯低位反弹 逻辑：随着胶价已经触及了今年低位水平后，借着由其他商品大涨带动的 多头氛围，胶价昨日出现明显反弹。不过基本面方面变化不大，供给端来 说，泰国仍处于雨季影响当中，但原料价格最终受到期货盘面的拖拽开始 下行，杯胶价格在端午假期期间已经跌至46泰铢，国内外倒挂幅度出现一 定缓解，需要再次观察原料价格何时企稳。需求端来说，轮胎开工整体恢 复力度偏弱，部分企业月底存检修计划，另有少数企业存减产现象，成品 库存积压的情况得到些许缓解，但仍难以见到明显改善。当前来说，宏观 层面仍存较大 ...

研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9427 | 24 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2618 | 14 | | | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 167 | -2 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 266 | 9 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 327483 | -2907 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 578743 | -23502 | | 期货市场 | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 45807 | 4530 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -3648 | 8178 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 600 | -412 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 27615 | -394 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) ...

分析师：加密货币反弹部分源于有利的宏观环境和机构涌入 金十数据5月22日讯，XS.com市场分析师Linh Tran表示，加密货币最近的反弹部分源于有利的宏观环境 和机构涌入。美元走软也增强了比特币作为另一种价值储存手段的吸引力。在政策方面，Tran指出了一 些积极的进展，比如美国得州批准了一项建立国家控制的比特币储备的法案，这表明越来越多的立法机 构接受比特币作为一种长期储备资产。 ...

热点报告——液化石油气 中美关税阶段性缓和，内外盘定价逻辑分化 | | [Table液_R化an石k]油气：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 14 | 日 [Table_Analyser] | | 走势评级： 报告日期： | | | | | | | [Table_Summary] ★中美关税缓和超预期，FEI/CP 价差显著收窄 关税缓和对国际纸货价格产生了明显的影响，中国进口美国货 可能性的提升支撑 6 月 FEI 纸货价格大幅上涨，同时此前 CP 价 格来自中国寻求美国货替代来源的支撑预期部分消退下有所回 落，FEI-CP 价差走强，但并未走强至对等关税加征前水平，6 月合约两者价差走强至-20 美元/吨后上行乏力。 能 源 结合当前的 LPG 商品基本面以及宏观环境仍存在不确定性的整 体情景，我们预计短期 FEI 向上和 CP 向下的进一步驱动相对有 限，CP 预计仍将较 FEI 表现偏强。 与 碳 ★ C4 需求疲弱叠加仓单压制下，关税缓和对内盘价格影响有限 中 和 相对于 ...

康菲石油(COP.N)首席执行官：由于宏观环境的影响，第二季度的回购可能会比第一季度减少几亿美 元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current macroeconomic environment is leading to a situation where even companies that report better-than-expected earnings struggle to see corresponding stock price increases, indicating a cautious investor sentiment [1][3][8]. Group 1: Earnings Reports and Market Reactions - Major tech companies, including Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple, are set to release their earnings reports this week, which will be crucial for determining short-term market direction [1]. - Companies that exceed earnings expectations are seeing an average stock price increase of only 50 basis points the following day, significantly lower than the historical average of 101 basis points [1][3]. - Conversely, companies that fail to meet expectations experience an average decline of 247 basis points, worse than the historical average drop of 206 basis points [1][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Investor Sentiment - The Nasdaq index rose by 6.5% last week, driven by several factors including better-than-expected earnings in the tech, media, and telecom sectors, reduced volatility, stable interest rates, and improved policy outlook [2]. - Despite the overall strong performance of the tech sector, investor reactions to earnings reports have become more cautious, reflecting deep-seated concerns about future prospects [8]. - The strong earnings season has not yet translated into significant stock price appreciation, suggesting that the market may have already priced in negative expectations [10]. Group 3: Specific Company Examples - Google's recent earnings report exceeded expectations, yet its stock price only increased by approximately 1.5% on the day of the announcement, exemplifying the broader trend of muted market reactions to strong earnings [5]. - The upcoming earnings reports from major companies like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta will be critical in assessing whether the recent strong performance is sustainable or merely a temporary spike [10].

Macro Environment - The macroeconomic environment significantly influences the growth theme market, with a stable macroeconomic environment since the beginning of 2025 providing a conducive space for theme market development [2][3] - In early 2023, the adjustment of pandemic policies led to a rapid release of pent-up demand, creating a "strong expectation, weak reality" macro environment that improved market risk appetite and supported the ChatGPT theme market [2] - By early 2024, economic recovery momentum weakened, leading to a constrained space for the SORA theme market due to pressures from slowing consumption recovery and real estate investment [2] - The current macro environment characterized by "steady recovery + policy support" has led to a neutral overall expectation for economic growth, which is favorable for the further development of the current technology theme market [2][3] Style Switching - Sustainable fundamental expectations are necessary for the further expansion of the market, as seen in the divergence between the ChatGPT theme and growth/profitability styles in 2023 [3][4] - The SORA market in 2024 differed from the previous round as market expectations for net profit growth in the AI sector significantly increased, leading to a simultaneous strengthening of growth styles [3][4] - The strong performance of defensive styles such as dividends and low valuations from 2022 to mid-2024 impacted the theme market, with the ChatGPT theme failing to boost growth styles [4] - The current growth style has shown strength after a pullback in January, with a high degree of industry diffusion, suggesting a potential extension of the current market duration while monitoring the rebound of defensive styles [4]