1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term tin prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment. Friday night saw a sharp decline, erasing the previous week's gains. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and consider a low - buying strategy after the sentiment stabilizes. The new energy vehicle and AI server sectors offer long - term demand support, while traditional electronics and white - goods sectors are weak [1]. Copper - In the long - term, the price bottom of copper is expected to rise due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. Short - term price strength is due to global inventory imbalances and supply concerns. However, real - terminal demand is weak, and prices may return to fundamental pricing. Attention should be paid to CL premium and LME inventory changes, with support at 97500 - 98500 [3]. Nickel - The nickel market is mainly affected by macro factors and Indonesian ore quota news. Although ore - end news provides some support, most of it has been digested. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range of 135000 - 145000 [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The lower support comes from tight domestic zinc ore supply, and the upper pressure comes from expected imported ore supply and negative demand feedback. Attention should be paid to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, with support around 23800 [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market shows some resilience in the off - season. However, with high valuations, there is resistance to further price increases. The short - term market may adjust widely, with the main contract running between 140,000 - 150,000. Short - term unilateral trading within the range is recommended [11]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate widely around the industry's cash - cost line, with the main contract in the range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation, with the main contract running between 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include domestic inventory accumulation speed, downstream consumption resilience, and overseas monetary policies and geopolitical events [13]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to continue a high - level oscillation, with the ADC12 price in the range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw material price changes, imported supply, and downstream pre - holiday stockpiling [15]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 13800 - 14500. Attention should be paid to ore - end news and downstream inventory building [18]. Polysilicon - In the polysilicon market, demand is expected to improve due to export - rush demand, and there is an expectation of supply reduction. The price may be supported at 48,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see during the cooling period and monitor production cuts and downstream demand recovery [20]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating at a low level. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side production changes and potential further polysilicon production cuts [21]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.81% to 414050 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 78.57% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: November tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, and December SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory increased by 37.69%, and social inventory increased by 36.07% [1]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.70% to 101855 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased significantly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: December electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80% to 117.81 million tons, and November imports decreased by 3.90% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory increased by 17.20%, and SHFE inventory increased by 18.26% [3]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.47% to 149350 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 18.75% [5]. - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production**: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrolytic nickel increased by 1.09% to 112237 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel imports decreased by 9.38%, and SHFE inventory increased by 3.28% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 2.40% to 24800 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: December refined zinc production decreased by 7.24% to 55.21 million tons, and November exports increased by 402.59% [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: Global visible inventory decreased slightly, and China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 0.08% [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.63% to 158000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased significantly [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: December lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04% to 99200 tons, and demand decreased by 2.50% [11]. - **Inventory Changes**: December lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 12.23% [11]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.66% to 24030 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: December alumina production increased by 1.08% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [13]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 3.08%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.41% [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.42% to 23900 yuan/ton, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum decreased [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: December recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 6.16% to 64.00 million tons, and the industry's operating rate decreased [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: Recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased slightly to 4.89 million tons [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.35% to 14350 yuan/ton, and the basis increased [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: December 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in China decreased by 2.50% to 171.93 million tons, and exports increased by 13.18% [18]. - **Inventory Changes**: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.47% [18]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: N - type polysilicon feedstock average price increased by 0.18% to 54850 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 9.66% to 2.15 million tons, and imports decreased by 27.05% [20]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.29% to 32.10 million tons [20]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon price remained unchanged at 9250 yuan/ton, and the basis increased [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: December national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and exports increased by 21.78% [21]. - **Inventory Changes**: Social inventory increased by 0.54% to 55.50 million tons [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Rubber Industry - Short - term rubber price drivers are limited, expected to range between 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton, with raw material prices providing support at the lower end and weak demand capping the upside. Follow - up attention should be paid to raw material output in Thailand [1]. Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, the weekly supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the port inventory is still high, and the self - driving force is limited. For styrene, it is driven by exports, and the port inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term supply is tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space is limited. Strategically, be cautiously bearish on BZ2603, and look for opportunities to shrink the EB - BZ spread; also look for opportunities to short EB03 at high levels and shrink the EB processing fee [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: After a previous rise driven by macro - sentiment, it has fallen back. The spot price is basically flat, and the market sentiment is dull. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. The inventory is at a high level and being adjusted. The futures price is expected to have limited rebound and continue to fluctuate weakly. - Glass: After a continuous decline, it rebounded due to improved macro - sentiment. The spot price has increased, and the basis has strengthened. However, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory has decreased seasonally. The futures price is expected to have limited rebound and maintain a weak - fluctuating trend [3]. Crude Oil Industry - Short - term oil prices are affected by Middle East geopolitics, but the supply - demand expectation is weak. The inventory of US crude oil and refined oil has increased significantly. The rebound space of oil prices is limited, and Brent crude oil may fluctuate between $60 - 66 per barrel in the short term [4]. Polyolefin Industry - The polyolefin market is supported by rising raw material costs, but the profit first expands and then compresses. The static supply and demand both decline, and the inventory is being reduced. PP is short - term strong due to reduced supply pressure from maintenance, while PE is under pressure from reduced maintenance and import expectations. Overall, it is constrained by supply pressure and off - season demand, and the upward space may be limited [7]. LPG Industry - The prices of LPG futures contracts have declined, and the inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates have changed. No clear overall view is provided in the report [9]. Polyester Industry - PX: High supply and weak demand are expected in the first quarter, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival. In the medium - term, the supply in the second quarter is expected to be tight, and the downside space is limited. - PTA: The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken in January, with limited inventory accumulation in January but greater pressure in February. It mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. - MEG: There is a significant expectation of inventory accumulation in the near - term, and the price is under pressure in January. - Short - fiber: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and it follows the raw material fluctuations in the short term. - Polyester bottle - chips: The supply is expected to decline significantly in January, and the absolute price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost fluctuations [11]. Methanol Industry - The inland supply remains high, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory has decreased slightly, but the MTO demand is weak, which limits the price rebound. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support for the 05 contract, but an upward trend requires substantial improvement in demand [14][15]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: The spot price is weak, the supply is increasing slightly, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be bearish in the short term. - PVC: Affected by policies, the price fluctuates greatly. The fundamentals are under pressure, with stable supply growth, weak terminal demand, and inventory accumulation pressure, but the cost support is stable [16]. Urea Industry - The supply of urea is at a high level in the short term, and the demand is weak. However, there is an expectation of increased regional agricultural demand in the short term, and the inventory has decreased, which supports the price. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [17]. Summaries by Directory Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton to 15,700 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily increase of 0.32%. The whole - latex basis increased by 210 to - 135, with a daily increase of 60.87%. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 570 to - 82, with a daily decrease of 670.59%; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 570 to 570, with a daily increase of 1036.36%. Fundamental Data - In November, the rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India changed by - 9.39%, - 2.58%, and 2.20% respectively compared with the previous month. The production in China increased by 23.7 thousand tons. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in November increased by 3.96% compared with the previous month, and the tire export volume in December increased by 3.29% [1]. Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (March) increased by $0.37 to $64.13 per barrel on January 16, with a daily increase of 0.6%. WTI crude oil (February) increased by $0.25 to $59.44 per barrel, with a daily increase of 0.4%. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot price of styrene in East China increased by 80 yuan/ton to 7,310 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.1%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 4 to - 53, with a daily increase of - 7.0%. Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows and Inventory - The cash flows of some pure benzene and styrene downstream products have changed. The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 0.6 million tons, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.17 million tons [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of glass 2605 increased by 17 yuan/ton to 1,103 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily increase of 1.57%. The 05 basis decreased by 17 to - 83, with a daily decrease of - 25.76%. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of soda ash 2605 decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,192 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 0.09%. The 05 basis increased by 1 to 28, with a daily increase of 1.75%. Supply and Inventory - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 5.93% compared with January 9, and the weekly output increased by 8.11%. The glass factory inventory decreased by 5.69%, and the soda ash factory inventory increased by 4.25% [3]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil increased by $0.37 to $64.13 per barrel on January 16, with a daily increase of 0.58%. WTI crude oil increased by $0.25 to $59.44 per barrel, with a daily increase of 0.42%. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB increased by 0.14 cents per gallon to 178.52 cents per gallon, with a daily increase of 0.08%. ICE Gasoil increased by $13 to $650.5 per ton, with a daily increase of 2.04%. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - The crack spreads of some refined oil products have changed, such as the US gasoline crack spread decreased by $0.19 to $15.54 per barrel, with a daily decrease of - 1.22% [4]. Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - The price of L2605 decreased by 119 yuan/ton to 6,814 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 1.75%. The L59 spread decreased by 28 to - 28. Spot Prices and Basis - The spot price of East China PP拉丝 decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 6,350 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.09%. The North China LL basis decreased by 10 to - 90, with a daily decrease of - 12.50%. Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory - The operating rate of PE devices decreased by 2.48%, and the operating rate of PP devices increased by 0.20%. The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 million tons, and the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.3 million tons [7]. LPG Industry LPG Prices and Spreads - The price of the main PG2602 decreased by 91 yuan/ton to 4,202 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 2.12%. The PG02 - 03 spread increased by 5 to 65, with a daily increase of 8.33%. LPG Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates - The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.77%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 10.4 million tons. The upstream - downstream operating rates have changed slightly [9]. Polyester Industry Upstream and Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - The price of POY150/48 decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 6,690 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 0.4%. The cash flow of POY150/48 decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 62 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 78.0%. PX - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of CFR China PX decreased by $2 to $879 per ton, with a daily decrease of - 0.2%. The PX - crude oil spread decreased by $2 to $411 per ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.1%. PTA, MEG - Related Prices and Inventory - The price of PTA East China spot decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 4,960 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.8%. The MEG port inventory increased by 7.7 million tons [11]. Methanol Industry Methanol Prices and Spreads - The price of MA2605 decreased by 34 yuan/ton to 2,239 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 1.50%. The MA59 spread decreased by 10 to - 9, with a daily decrease of - 1000.00%. Methanol Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates - The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 million tons, and the methanol port inventory decreased by 10.19 million tons. The upstream - downstream operating rates have changed, such as the downstream - outer - sourced MTO device operating rate decreased by 11.22% [14]. Chlor - alkali Industry PVC, Caustic Soda Spot and Futures - The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 4,580 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 1.5%. The SH2605 price decreased by 32 yuan/ton to 2,213 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.4%. Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda remained unchanged at $350 per ton. The export profit decreased by 2.3 yuan/ton to 214.2 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.1%. PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The CFR Southeast Asia price of PVC increased by $20 to $630 per ton, with a daily increase of 3.3%. The export profit of FOB Tianjin Port calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 102.6 yuan/ton to 5.9 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 106.1%. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The operating rate of the caustic soda industry increased by 0.3%, and the operating rate of PVC increased by 0.3%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 0.8 million tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.7 million tons [16]. Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - The price of the 05 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,791 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 0.56%. The 05 - 09 contract spread decreased by 1 to 28, with a daily decrease of - 3.45%. Spot Prices and Basis - The spot price of urea in Shandong (small particles) increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,770 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.57%. The Shandong basis increased by 20 to 20, with a daily increase of 11.70%. Supply and Demand - The daily output of domestic urea increased by 0.03 million tons to 19.98 million tons on January 14, with a daily increase of 0.17%. The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.61 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons [17].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that the Shanghai tin price will face pressure and adjust in the short - term. It is expected to be adjusted at a high level in the short - term, with attention to the MA10 support, in the range of 39 - 42 [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose first and then pulled back. The weekly gain was + 14.95%, and the amplitude was 25.32%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 405,240 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: The People's Bank of China decided to lower the re - loan and rediscount rates, and cut the monetary policy tool rates by 25 basis points, indicating that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. In the US, the number of initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 198,000 last week, the lowest since November last year. The US dollar rebounded to a more than one - month high [7]. - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply**: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which are expected to continue to rise in the first quarter. Recently, tin ore processing fees have increased slightly, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. However, most smelting enterprises still have low raw material inventories and are operating at a loss. With more year - end maintenance, refined tin production continues to be restricted, but there is pressure for production to rebound after the Chinese New Year. In addition, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. Recently, the import window has opened, increasing import pressure [7]. - **Demand**: Recently, the rise in tin prices has led to a decline in downstream procurement demand, a significant increase in inventory, and a spot premium of 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined [7]. - **Technical - level**: With the reduction in positions and price adjustment, the bullish sentiment has declined, and there may be an adjustment [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Price Changes**: As of January 16, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 405,240 yuan/ton, up 52,330 yuan/ton from January 9, a rise of 14.83%. As of January 15, 2026, the closing price of LME tin was 52,031 US dollars/ton, up 8,281 US dollars/ton from January 9, a rise of 18.93% [9][12]. - **Ratio Changes**: As of January 16, 2026, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.87, an increase of 0.33 from January 9. As of January 14, 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.67, a decrease of 0.32 from January 8 [16]. - **Position Changes**: As of January 16, 2026, the position of Shanghai tin was 115,615 lots, an increase of 9,920 lots from January 9, a growth rate of 9.39%. As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 3,681 lots, a decrease of 2,310 lots from December 22, 2025 [20]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Conditions - **Supply - side**: - **Tin Ore Imports and Refined Tin Production**: In November 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the refined tin production was 15,618 tons, and the cumulative refined tin production from January to October was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [26][27]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fees**: On January 16, 2026, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 7,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,000 yuan/ton from January 14, a growth rate of 15.38%. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 11,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,000 yuan/ton from January 14, a growth rate of 9.52% [32]. - **Refined Tin Imports**: As of January 15, 2026, the profit and loss of tin imports was 9,027.98 yuan/ton, a rise of 9,460.69 yuan/ton from January 9. In November 2025, the refined tin import volume was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin import was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the refined tin export volume was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin export was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [37][38]. - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the total LME tin inventory was 5,925 tons, an increase of 520 tons from January 8, a growth rate of 9.62%. As of January 16, 2026, the total tin inventory was 9,549 tons, an increase of 2,614 tons from last week, a growth rate of 37.69%. The tin futures inventory was 9,462 tons, an increase of 3,033 tons from January 9, a growth rate of 47.18% [41]. - **Demand - side**: - **Semiconductor Index**: On January 15, 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,837.3, a rise of 401.2 from January 8, a growth rate of 5.4% [44]. - **Domestic Electronic Industry Output**: From January to November 2025, the integrated circuit output was 43,184 million pieces, an increase of 3,657.072 million pieces compared with the same period last year, a growth rate of 9.25% [44]. - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Exports**: As of November 2025, the tin - plated sheet output was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from October 2025, a decline of 9.09%. The tin - plated sheet export volume was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons from October, a decline of 33.79% [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper first declined and then rose, while domestic copper fluctuated widely. The import of refined copper in China remained at a loss. The US economy showed signs of improvement, with retail sales and housing sales data being positive. LME, Comex, SHFE, and BC copper inventories all increased. High copper prices led to more cautious downstream procurement, and the export window gradually opened, which may be beneficial for export demand in Q1. The US Supreme Court's non - decision on the Trump tariff policy case briefly alleviated market concerns. At present, there are signs of weakening fundamentals under high copper prices, but market sentiment remains strong. A prudent and optimistic view is recommended [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. The price of SMM alumina declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Alumina plants have high ore reserves, with low short - term premium procurement sentiment and decreasing costs. Alumina production continued to increase after environmental control ended, and with imports, inventories at manufacturers and downstream continued to accumulate. The logic of spot prices converging to futures prices continued. The profit from Xinjiang's warehouse delivery may put pressure on the market. After the end of environmental control and the cancellation of export tax rebates, photovoltaic enterprises rushed to export, and the start - up of the processing end is expected to remain resilient, slightly alleviating the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation. The macro - micro divergence is gradually narrowing, and the over - heating boost is being rationally corrected. Aluminum prices continue to be high, and the spot discount continues to narrow [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 6.73% and Shanghai nickel rose 5.62%. LME and SHFE inventories increased. The Indonesian government plans to reduce the nickel ore production target in 2026. As prices rise rapidly, product prices in all links of the industrial chain have strengthened, and the production of primary nickel has increased significantly. The tightening of Indonesia's nickel ore quota policy may lead to a global primary nickel supply - demand gap, stimulating nickel prices to strengthen. Short - term attention is recommended to the opportunity of going long near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper first declined and then rose, with domestic wide - range fluctuations. The import of refined copper in China was at a loss. US economic data was positive, and copper inventories in multiple markets increased. High copper prices made downstream procurement cautious, and the export window opened. The non - decision on the tariff policy case alleviated concerns. Fundamentals are weakening under high prices, but market sentiment is strong [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. Alumina prices declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Ore reserves are high, costs are decreasing, and inventories are accumulating. The end of environmental control and export - related policies affect the market, and the macro - micro divergence is narrowing [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME and Shanghai nickel prices rose significantly. Inventories increased. Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production. The industrial chain product prices strengthened, and the tightening of the quota policy may cause a supply - demand gap [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On January 14, 2026, the price of flat - water copper increased by 1360 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the premium increased by 35 yuan/ton. The price of scrap copper and the refined - scrap price difference both increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE and COMEX inventories increased. The social inventory increased by 20,000 tons. The active contract's import loss decreased [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the prices of related lead products also changed slightly. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE inventory increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: On January 14, 2026, the prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot discount widened. The prices of raw materials such as alumina and pre - baked anodes changed slightly. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE inventory and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the social inventory of alumina decreased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 1250 yuan/ton. The prices of some nickel - related products remained stable, while the prices of some new - energy nickel products decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE nickel inventory and social inventory increased, and stainless - steel inventory decreased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 1.2%. The prices of related zinc products all increased. The weekly TC remained unchanged. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 4.5%, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The prices of related tin products increased. SHFE inventory decreased, and the registered warehouse receipt increased [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of the spot premium of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [7][8][9]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the near - far month spread of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 are presented [13][15][17]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of the LME inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 are shown [19][21][23]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of the SHFE inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 are provided [25][27][29]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of the social inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 are presented [31][33][35]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 are shown [38][40][42]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily & Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [45]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia. An analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has won relevant industry awards, focuses on the domestic non - ferrous industry and new - energy industry chain, and provides in - depth reports and policy interpretations [45]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK. An analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. He has won relevant industry awards, focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, and serves many leading new - energy enterprises [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have significantly increased recently, driven by the potential US refined copper tariff - expected inventory transfer to the US and investment fund inflow. Future copper price performance depends on terminal demand under high - price conditions, US restocking, and Chinese demand recovery. It is expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and de - stock quickly after the Spring Festival [1] - Aluminum's spot and futures prices are dominated by expected trading, with increased price fluctuations. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously judged, and the strong expectation can support the current high price [1][2] - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary supply reduction at the end of the year. The price may not decline significantly. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities in the monthly spread [5] - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak demand, and a slowdown in domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [6][7] - Stainless steel's fundamentals are relatively weak, with high - level steel mill production, mainly rigid demand, and high - level inventories with a slight reduction. The price is mainly driven by nickel price changes recently [11] - Lead prices are oscillating at a high level following the macro - situation. Supply and demand are in a complex state, and it is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate next week. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12] - Tin prices have risen this week. There are supply disturbances in major global suppliers, and downstream restocking is strong. The price has strong support in the short term, and it can be a multi - allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter. However, there are risks of large - scale inventory accumulation in the overseas LME in the long - term [13] - Industrial silicon's supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [16] - Lithium carbonate prices have risen recently, driven by potential resource - end disturbances, increased iron - lithium processing fees, and macro - sentiment. Upstream sales strategies are changing, while downstream procurement is cautious [19] 3. Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by 25, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 1252, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 27212. The spot import profit increased by 191.03, and the three - month import profit increased by 282.64 [1] - **Market Outlook**: The recent increase in copper prices is due to the potential US refined copper tariff and investment fund inflow. Future performance depends on terminal demand, US restocking, and Chinese demand [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 370, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 370, and the Guangdong aluminum ingot price increased by 380. The domestic alumina price decreased by 1, and the import alumina price remained unchanged. The Shanghai aluminum social inventory had no change record, and the aluminum exchange inventory remained unchanged [1] - **Market Situation**: The spot and futures prices are affected by expected trading. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than expected, with poor automobile terminal sales and good short - term demand from photovoltaic installations [1][2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of zinc remained at 70, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 240, the Tianjin zinc ingot price increased by 270, and the Guangdong zinc ingot price increased by 260. The zinc social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE zinc exchange inventory remained unchanged [5] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and imported TC of zinc is accelerating its decline. The domestic zinc ore is tightening marginally from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and generally normal overseas [5] - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage in the monthly spread [5] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained at 55.0, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1000, and the Jinchuan premium decreased by 150. The LME inventory increased by 510, and the LME注销仓单 increased by 702 [6] - **Market Situation**: The short - term fundamental situation is weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak demand, and a slowdown in domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [6][7] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 50, and the waste stainless steel price increased by 150. The inventory is at a high level with a slight reduction [11] - **Market Situation**: The fundamentals are relatively weak, with high - level steel mill production, mainly rigid demand, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price changes recently [11] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of lead decreased by 5, the Shanghai - Henan price difference remained unchanged, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 3725, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 3200 [12] - **Market Situation**: Lead prices are oscillating at a high level following the macro - situation. Supply and demand are in a complex state, and it is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate next week [12] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot import profit decreased by 1317.95, the spot export profit decreased by 2293.37, and the tin position increased by 11997. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 10 [12] - **Market Situation**: Tin prices have risen this week. There are supply disturbances in major global suppliers, and downstream restocking is strong. The price has strong support in the short term [13] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 120, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 120, the 553 East China basis decreased by 120, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 120, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 12 [16] - **Market Situation**: Supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3500, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3500, the main - contract basis increased by 8540, the near - month contract basis increased by 3500, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 260 [19] - **Market Situation**: Lithium carbonate prices have risen recently, driven by potential resource - end disturbances, increased iron - lithium processing fees, and macro - sentiment. Upstream sales strategies are changing, while downstream procurement is cautious [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Aluminum: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Alumina: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, with upward driving force but limited operability on the market) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Tin: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, with upward driving force but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Views - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows complex trends, with different metals affected by various factors such as geopolitics, supply and demand, and cost [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Categories Copper - Wednesday saw Shanghai copper increase positions and fluctuate at a high level, with the market competing around 105,000 yuan. SMM spot copper was at 103,915 yuan. Futures warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 27,000 tons to 149,300 tons. Attention is on the impact of the Iran geopolitical situation on precious metals trading sentiment [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell again. Spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan were - 80 yuan, - 240 yuan, and 60 yuan respectively. The processing fee of aluminum rods widened to - 200 yuan. Short - term bullish sentiment in precious and non - ferrous metals is still strong. The fundamentals deviate to some extent, and speculation should be cautious. Aluminum smelters can consider selling for hedging. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. The domestic alumina operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, in a state of significant surplus. The average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan has dropped to around 2,600 yuan. The spot price of alumina is under pressure, and short - selling can be considered when the basis is low [2] Zinc - Funds continue to flow into the zinc market, and the capital congestion degree further increases. The high price has an obvious negative feedback on the consumer side, and the divergence between bulls and bears increases. The zinc price has recovered all the declines in 2025, and the callback pressure is gradually increasing. Short positions can be considered above 24,800 yuan/ton, and the support at 23,000 yuan/ton should be watched during the callback [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined, and the market trading was active. The inventory of pure nickel increased by 2,000 tons to 59,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 855,000 tons. The short - term market is dominated by policy sentiment, and downstream buyers can buy at low prices [6] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin hit the daily limit for the second time this week. The spot tin price adjusted to 485,500 yuan, and the warehouse receipts increased by 862 tons to 7,107 tons. High prices suppress demand, while supply remains stable. Short - term attention should be paid to the silver market rhythm, and holding short - call options until expiration can be considered [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate dived and then rebounded during the session. The sales strategy of upstream brine plants is changing. The overall demand maintains strong resilience. The market inventory increased for the first week, but the downstream inventory decreased rapidly. The lithium carbonate futures price is strong, but short - term uncertainty is extremely high [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon maintains a volatile trend, with weak supply and demand fundamentals. The overall spot price of industrial silicon is stalemate, and the futures price follows the volatile trend [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon decreased positions and fluctuated. The price of polysilicon M - type re - feed material is 51,000 - 58,500 yuan/ton. The trading logic of polysilicon has changed, and the market sentiment has significantly cooled down. Participation should be cautious [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The current valuation of methanol is low, and its pattern is expected to improve marginally next year. Despite short - term downside risks, due to the recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is potential for bottom - fishing [2]. - The current situation of the internal - external price difference of urea has opened the import window. With the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [4]. - The geopolitical situation in Latin America does not provide sufficient bullish support for the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - grade oil products will be significantly raised. Therefore, the valuation of heavy - grade oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [6]. - The seasonal performance of rubber is weak. Currently, a neutral approach is recommended. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, a short - term short - selling strategy can be adopted. It is also suggested to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [11]. - The fundamentals of PVC are poor. Although short - term electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end, in the medium term, until there is a substantial reduction in production in the industry, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended [13]. - The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively low level, with significant potential for upward valuation repair. By the end of the first quarter, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [16]. - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [19]. - In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure of polypropylene is high. There are no prominent short - term contradictions, but the contract price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. - Currently, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. It is expected that PX will maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PX following the trend of crude oil on dips [24]. - In the short term, PTA is expected to continue to draw down inventory and then enter the Spring Festival inventory - building period. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PTA on dips and grasp the rhythm [26]. - The overall load of ethylene glycol remains relatively high, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of new device commissioning. If there is no further production reduction in China, the valuation is expected to be compressed [29]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 9.90 yuan/barrel, a 2.27% increase, at 445.60 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 13.00 yuan/ton, a 0.53% increase, at 2461.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 50.00 yuan/ton, a 1.66% increase, at 3066.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory increased by 5.70 million barrels to 210.81 million barrels, a 2.78% increase from the previous week. Gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.85 million barrels to 91.47 million barrels, a 2.06% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 1.00 million barrels to 93.56 million barrels, a 1.08% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 2.85 million barrels to 185.03 million barrels, a 1.57% increase [1]. - **Strategy Views**: The geopolitical situation in Latin America does not provide sufficient bullish support for the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - grade oil products will be significantly raised. Therefore, the valuation of heavy - grade oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [6]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: No specific market quotes provided in the given text. - **Strategy Views**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and its pattern is expected to improve marginally next year. Despite short - term downside risks, due to the recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is potential for bottom - fishing [2]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: Regional spot prices in Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton, in Henan by 10 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 10 yuan/ton, in Hubei remained unchanged, in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton, in Shanxi remained unchanged, and in the Northeast remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 44 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 9 yuan/ton, at 1774 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy Views**: The current situation of the internal - external price difference of urea has opened the import window. With the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [4]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. The long - side of natural rubber RU believed that rubber production in Southeast Asian rubber forests might be limited, rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year, and China's demand was expected to improve. The short - side believed that the macro - economic outlook was uncertain, supply was increasing, and demand was in the seasonal off - season. As of January 8, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.54%, up 0.60 percentage points from the previous week and down 1.60 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory pressure of all - steel tire factories increased. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 68.00%, down 1.73 percentage points from the previous week and down 10.65 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.2 tons, a 2.5% increase from the previous week. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 81.5 tons, a 3% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 41.7 tons, a 1.3% increase. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 54.43 (+2.49) tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 15,000 (- 100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1900 (- 10) US dollars, and STR20 mixed was 1900 (- 10) US dollars. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9250 (+50) yuan, and the price of cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11450 (+50) yuan [8][9][10]. - **Strategy Views**: The seasonal performance of rubber is weak. Currently, a neutral approach is recommended. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, a short - term short - selling strategy can be adopted. It is also suggested to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC05 contract decreased by 52 yuan, at 4888 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4670 (+50) yuan/ton, and the basis was - 218 (+102) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 121 (- 11) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2400 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 730 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 674 (- 14) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.7%, a 1% increase from the previous week; among them, the calcium carbide method was 79.7%, a 1.4% increase; the ethylene method was 79.6%, a 0.3% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 44%, a 0.1% increase. The in - factory inventory was 32.8 tons (+1.9), and the social inventory was 111.4 tons (+3.7) [12]. - **Strategy Views**: The fundamentals of PVC are poor. Although short - term electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end, in the medium term, until there is a substantial reduction in production in the industry, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended [13]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Quotes**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of pure benzene in East China was 5440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5584 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 144 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7200 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton; the basis was 172 yuan/ton, an increase of 296 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 124 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was 43.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.95 yuan/ton. The spread between EB contract 1 and contract 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.92%, an increase of 0.22%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 13.23 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.90%, an increase of 0.11%. The PS operating rate was 58.90%, a decrease of 1.50%; the EPS operating rate was 46.72%, an increase of 3.07%; the ABS operating rate was 69.80%, a decrease of 0.10% [15]. - **Strategy Views**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively low level, with significant potential for upward valuation repair. By the end of the first quarter, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6766 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 91 yuan/ton, a weakening of 29 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, a 0.04% increase from the previous week. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 39.54 tons, an increase of 2.47 tons from the previous week, and the inventory of traders was 2.93 tons, an increase of 0.17 tons from the previous week. The average downstream operating rate was 40.8%, a 0.35% decrease from the previous week. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [18]. - **Strategy Views**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6430 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 115 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, a 1.03% decrease from the previous week. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 46.77 tons, a decrease of 2.3 tons from the previous week; the inventory of traders was 20.47 tons, an increase of 2.75 tons from the previous week; the port inventory was 7.11 tons, an increase of 0.48 tons from the previous week. The average downstream operating rate was 52.76%, a 0.48% decrease from the previous week. The LL - PP spread was 221 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **Strategy Views**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure of polypropylene is high. There are no prominent short - term contradictions, but the contract price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX03 contract decreased by 26 yuan, at 7282 yuan. The PX CFR price increased by 2 US dollars, at 899 US dollars. Converted at the central parity of the RMB, the basis was - 18 yuan (+42), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 38 yuan (- 12). The PX operating rate in China was 90.9%, a 0.3% increase from the previous week; the Asian operating rate was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. In terms of facilities, there were few changes in China, a 82 - ton facility in Kuwait was under maintenance, and the load of FCFC in Taiwan, China increased. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase from the previous week, and there were few changes in facilities this week. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 14.6 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of January, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 4.02 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 339 US dollars (- 2), the South Korean PX - MX was 144 US dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 87 US dollars (- 2) [23]. - **Strategy Views**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. It is expected that PX will maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PX following the trend of crude oil on dips [24]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 2 yuan, at 5140 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 40 yuan, at 5060 yuan. The basis was - 69 yuan (- 11), and the 5 - 9 spread was 52 yuan (+4). The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase from the previous week, and there were few changes in facilities this week. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, unchanged from the previous week. In terms of facilities, 75 - ton bottle chips of Sanfangxiang, 12 - ton bottle chips of Yipu, and 10 - ton chemical fiber of Jindayu were under maintenance, and 50 - ton bottle chips of Sanfangxiang were restarted. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 2% to 72%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 3% to 56%. In terms of inventory, on January 9, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.005 million tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 50 yuan to 295 yuan, and the on - screen processing fee increased by 15 yuan to 363 yuan [25]. - **Strategy Views**: In the short term, PTA is expected to continue to draw down inventory and then enter the Spring Festival inventory - building period. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PTA on dips and grasp the rhythm [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG05 contract decreased by 65 yuan, at 3815 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 48 yuan, at 3686 yuan. The basis was - 147 yuan (+2), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 118 yuan (- 14). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol operating rate was

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol is "High-level Volatility" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is in a narrow-range volatile adjustment. The futures are in a high-level consolidation, with general near-term buying at ports and some selling at high prices. Attention is on the shutdown of some coastal MTO plants. Inland upstream enterprises continue the initiative to reduce prices for shipment at the beginning of the week, with significant sales volume in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. However, due to weak downstream demand, the transfer of goods in the trading link is not smooth, and the trading atmosphere is stalemate. [4] - As of January 7, 2026, the inventory of methanol ports in China continued to accumulate, mainly in Zhejiang. The inventory in South China ports decreased slightly, with de - stocking in Fujian and relatively stable inventory in Guangdong. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of methanol's main contract was 2,263 yuan/ton, down 10 from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,267 yuan/ton, up 22; the trading volume was 1,462,981 lots; the open interest of the 05 - contract was 863,591 lots, up 50,636; the number of warehouse receipts was 7,655 tons, unchanged; the trading value was 3,316,989 ten - thousand yuan, down 170,749. The basis was - 6, up 25; the spread between MA01 and MA05 was - 38, down 5. [2] - **Spot Market**: The price in Inner Mongolia was 1,825 yuan/ton, up 10; the price in northern Shaanxi was 1,840 yuan/ton, down 15; the price in Shandong was 2,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 1,996.20, up 5.90. The spot price in Taicang was 2,260, up 18, and the price in northern Inner Mongolia was 1,837.5, up 7.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 8 cities had price increases ranging from 5 to 30 yuan/ton. [4] 3.3 Inventory Situation - As of January 7, 2026, the Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 1.5372 million tons, an increase of 40,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. The inventory mainly accumulated in Zhejiang, with 227,100 tons of visible foreign ships unloading during the period. The inventory in South China ports decreased slightly, with de - stocking in Fujian and relatively stable inventory in Guangdong. [4] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the pattern will improve marginally next year with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressure, geopolitical instability in Iran brings expectations, making it feasible to go long on dips [3]. - For urea, the current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are coming, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [6]. - For crude oil, the current Latin American geopolitical situation is not strongly positive for overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will be significantly increased. The valuation of heavy - oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [7]. - For rubber, currently, a bearish mindset is adopted. If RU2605 breaks below 16,000, a short - term bearish strategy is adopted. It is recommended to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is strong on the supply side and weak on the demand side. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end. In the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained before substantial production cuts [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently moderately low, with large room for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed out. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. - For polypropylene, the cost side shows that global oil inventories are expected to decline slightly, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out in Q1 next year [26]. - For PX, the current load is high, and downstream PTA is under maintenance. It is expected to maintain a slight inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude - oil price [29]. - For PTA, the supply side will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand side will face pressure. It is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage after the Spring Festival. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips [32][33]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. The supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. In the medium term, the valuation may need to be compressed [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude - oil futures rose 11.70 yuan/barrel, or 2.75%, to 437.50 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that total refined - oil inventories increased by 0.51 million barrels to 45.15 million barrels, a 1.15% increase month - on - month [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation is not strongly positive for overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will be significantly increased. The valuation of heavy - oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [7]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 20 yuan/ton, in Lunan by - 5 yuan/ton, in Henan by 5 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2263 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was 86 yuan [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, and the pattern will improve marginally next year with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressure, geopolitical instability in Iran brings expectations, making it feasible to go long on dips [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in other regions remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 43 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 6 yuan/ton to 1783 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are coming, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price showed signs of weakening. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 8, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.54%, up 0.60 percentage points from last week and down 1.60 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 68.00%, down 1.73 percentage points from last week and down 10.65 percentage points from the same period last year [9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, a bearish mindset is adopted. If RU2605 breaks below 16,000, a short - term bearish strategy is adopted. It is recommended to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 43 yuan to 4940 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4620 yuan/ton. The basis was - 320 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 110 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 79.7%, up 1% month - on - month. Factory inventory was 32.8 million tons (+1.9), and social inventory was 111.4 million tons (+3.7) [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is strong on the supply side and weak on the demand side. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end. In the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained before substantial production cuts [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged at 5320 yuan/ton, and the futures price was also unchanged. The basis narrowed. The spot price of styrene decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 6950 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 88 yuan/ton to 6895 yuan/ton. The basis weakened. The upstream operating rate of the supply side was 70.92%, up 0.22%. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.65 million tons [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently moderately low, with large room for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6674 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6525 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis weakened by 46 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, up 0.04% month - on - month. Production - enterprise inventory increased by 2.47 million tons to 39.54 million tons, and trader inventory increased by 0.17 million tons to 2.93 million tons [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed out. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6514 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis weakened by 30 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, down 1.03% month - on - month. Production - enterprise inventory decreased by 2.3 million tons to 46.77 million tons, trader inventory increased by 2.75 million tons to 20.47 million tons, and port inventory increased by 0.48 million tons to 7.11 million tons [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side shows that global oil inventories are expected to decline slightly, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out in Q1 next year [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 70 yuan to 7308 yuan. PX CFR rose 5 US dollars to 897 US dollars. The Chinese PX load was 90.9%, up 0.3% month - on - month, and the Asian load was 81.2%, up 0.3% month - on - month. In early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 14.6 million tons, up 0.7 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 402 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons month - on - month [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and downstream PTA is under maintenance. It is expected to maintain a slight inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude - oil price [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 34 yuan to 5142 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 65 yuan to 5100 yuan. The basis was - 58 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 48 yuan. The PTA load was 78.2%, up 0.1% month - on - month. The downstream load was 90.8%, unchanged. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 4 was 203 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply side will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand side will face pressure. It is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage after the Spring Festival. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips [32][33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 14 yuan to 3880 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 20 yuan to 3697 yuan. The basis was - 150 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 94 yuan. The ethylene - glycol load was 73.9%, up 0.2% month - on - month. The port inventory was 80.2 million tons, an increase of 7.7 million tons [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall load is still high, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. The supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. In the medium term, the valuation may need to be compressed [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The current demand for steel is weak, and prices have fully priced in the weak demand. Before the holiday, attention should be paid to the impact of policies on the expected demand for steel. In December, steel prices fluctuated with the rhythm of raw material prices and maintained a sideways trend. With significant steel production cuts, the downward driving force is not strong, but the weak demand expectation for the May contract restricts the upward price space. The upward elasticity depends on changes in the raw material supply side. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate within a range in January. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The fundamental pattern of iron ore has shifted to a situation of weak supply and demand. The price ceiling is suppressed by high inventories, and there is support from the expected restocking of steel mills below. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this period, and the mine's fiscal year impulse is basically over. Future focus should be on the weather in the Southern Hemisphere. On the demand side, the hot - metal production continued to resume, and the resumption speed accelerated. The iron ore inventory in ports increased significantly this week, and it is expected to continue to accumulate in the short term. In the future, iron ore will gradually transition from a situation of loose supply - demand to weak supply - demand. During the off - season, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and policy expectations. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coking coal, last week, the coking coal futures fluctuated upward. The spot prices of Shanxi increased more than decreased, and the Mongolian coal quotes rebounded following the futures. The supply side has entered the resumption stage, with improved shipments but still inventory accumulation. The demand side has seen a decrease in steel mill losses and an increase in hot - metal production, and the restocking demand has improved. For coke, last week, the coke futures also fluctuated upward. After the fourth round of price cuts on January 1st, the coke market is currently weakly stable. The supply side has a lag in coke price adjustment compared to coking coal, with pressured coking profits and increased production starts. The demand side has seen an increase in hot - metal production and a rebound in steel prices. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory has slightly increased. For both, the one - sided strategy suggests going long on dips, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and there is support from the cost side. The supply is at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the production in Inner Mongolia is stable with new capacity put into operation at the end of last year, so there is still room for short - term production growth. The demand for steelmaking has support, and the demand for ferrosilicon from the metal magnesium industry is also strong. It is expected that the price will fluctuate within the range of 5500 - 6200 yuan, and short - term attention should be paid to macro, policy expectations, and cost - side changes. For ferromanganese, it is in a state of self - oversupply but overall balance of manganese elements. The manganese ore provides support for the price, and there is also support from off - season demand. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, and the strategy suggests range - bound operations with a reference range of 5800 - 6300 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in various regions and contract prices all decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3320 yuan to 3290 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils decreased from 3332 yuan to 3294 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billets and slabs remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu's electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 3 yuan, while the cost of converter rebar decreased by 17 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East and North China decreased, while the profit of rebar in North China increased by 28 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average hot - metal production increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The production of the five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase. The production of rebar increased by 2.8 to 191.0, a 1.5% increase, with the electric - arc furnace production increasing by 6.6% and the converter production increasing by 0.5%. The production of hot - rolled coils increased by 1.0 to 305.5, a 0.3% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 16.1 to 438.1, a 3.8% increase, while the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.8 to 368.1, a 0.8% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 8.9, a 6.6% increase. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 44.2 to 796.8, a 5.3% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 25.5 to 175.0, a 12.7% decrease, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 2.4 to 308.3, a 0.8% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the 05 - contract basis of some powders changed slightly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 21.5, a 2.4% increase, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 7.5 to 37.5, a 16.7% decrease [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 155.0 to 2756.4, a 6.0% increase, while the global shipment volume decreased by 463.4 to 3213.7, a 12.6% decrease. The national monthly import volume decreased by 76.9 to 11054.0, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average hot - metal production increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 1.9 to 323.3, a 0.6% decrease. The national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 320.6 to 6234.3, a 4.9% decrease, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 212.6 to 6987.1, a 3.0% decrease [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 304.4 to 16275.26, a 1.9% increase. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 43.0 to 8989.6, a 0.5% increase, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0, a 5.0% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal contracts decreased slightly. The coking profit decreased by 11, and the sample coal - mine profit decreased by 26, a 5.14% decrease [6]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.9 to 63.6, a 1.4% increase, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average production increased by 0.1 to 46.9, a 0.1% increase. The raw - coal production decreased by 2.7 to 853.4, a 0.3% decrease [6]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill hot - metal production increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased slightly. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 5.5 to 86.1, a 6.0% decrease, and the 247 - steel - mill coke inventory increased by 1.7 to 645.7, a 0.3% increase. The coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.5 to 797.7, a 0.64% decrease [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The calculated coke supply - demand gap decreased from - 0.6 to - 0.7, a 15.1% decrease [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased. The ferrosilicon main - contract closing price decreased by 36.0 to 5632.0, a 0.6% decrease, and the ferromanganese main - contract closing price increased by 12.0 to 5904.0, a 0.24% increase [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in some regions remained unchanged, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased. The production costs of ferromanganese in some regions changed slightly, and the manganese - ore supply indicators such as shipment volume, arrival volume, and removal volume increased [7]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production enterprise's operating rate increased slightly, and the weekly ferromanganese production decreased by 0.3 to 19.1, a 1.4% decrease [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese from the steel - making industry has support. The 247 - steel - mill daily average hot - metal production increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase [7]. Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.5 to 6.9, a 7.1% increase, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased by 1.1 to 38.3, a 2.8% decrease [7].