Core Insights - The report suggests an overweight position in small-cap and value styles for November based on quantitative model signals and calendar effects [1][5] Size and Style Rotation Monthly Strategy - As of the end of October, the quantitative model signal was -0.17, indicating a preference for large-cap stocks; however, historical data shows that small-cap stocks tend to outperform in November [1] - The current market capitalization factor valuation spread is 0.88, which is still below the historical peak range of 1.7 to 2.6, indicating that the market is not overcrowded and small-cap stocks remain attractive in the medium to long term [1] - Year-to-date, the size rotation quantitative model has yielded a return of 27.85%, with an excess return of 2.86% relative to an equal-weight benchmark [1] - The combined strategy, incorporating subjective views, has achieved a return of 26.6% with an excess return of 1.61% [1] Value and Growth Style Rotation Monthly Strategy - The monthly quantitative model signal for October was 1, recommending an overweight position in value stocks [1] - Year-to-date, the value-growth style rotation strategy has returned 18.96%, with an excess return of 1.35% compared to an equal-weight benchmark of growth and value indices [1] Style Factor Performance Tracking - Among eight major factors, the dividend and momentum factors showed high positive returns in October, while large-cap and volatility factors exhibited high negative returns [2] - Year-to-date, the volatility and momentum factors have shown strong positive returns, while liquidity and large-cap factors have shown negative returns [2] - In October, the profitability, dividend yield, and momentum factors had high positive returns, while large-cap, profitability, and beta factors had high negative returns [2] - Year-to-date, the beta, profitability volatility, and momentum factors have shown strong positive returns, while mid-cap, liquidity, and large-cap factors have shown negative returns [2] Factor Covariance Matrix Update - The report updates the latest factor covariance matrix as of October 31, 2025, which is crucial for predicting stock portfolio risks [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall market uncertainty in November is expected to decline, and the probability of institutional加仓 is relatively high. Geopolitical negotiations between China and the United States are progressing orderly, and there was a summit in Busan at the end of October. Historically, insurance funds tend to enter the market for allocation in November and reduce positions in December. From 2022 - 2024, the average convertible bond position of insurance funds in November increased by 3.2% month - on - month, only slightly lower than that in January. [1][7] - Historically, the convertible bond market in November has a strong risk preference, with small - scale and low - rating bonds having high win - rate and odds. However, in December, there may be an obvious style switch, with large - scale and high - rating convertible bonds being dominant. [2] - The market has continuously broken through the upper edge of the 10 - year "convergent triangle", and the market trend is more optimistic. In October, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points and closed above the "convergent triangle" formed since 2015 for many consecutive days. Although there may be a back - test for confirmation later, the trend breakthrough may bring more confidence to the market, and the subsequent market is worth looking forward to. [3][7] - Historically, the convertible bond market in November has a certain calendar effect, with a relatively high probability of positive performance. From 2018 to 2024, the probability of the China Securities Convertible Bond Index rising in November was about 71%, second only to July; the average monthly increase was 1.3%, second only to February and July. The high prosperity of the convertible bond market in November mainly comes from the promotion of the underlying stocks, and the valuation performance is average. [3][8] - Quantitatively, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to convexity and undervaluation strategies. The deep - learning undervaluation + convexity strategy and the traditional high - convexity strategy proposed earlier both achieved positive excess returns in October. The MLP undervaluation strategy had an excess return of nearly 1.8% in the past month and over 15% in the past year, performing the best. [3][22] - The top ten convertible bonds in November are Yiwei, Guanyu, Liyang, Yirui, Shentong, Bojun, Zhongte, ALa, Hebang, and Bengang. [3][26] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Trend Breakthrough and Year - End Allocation Market - In October, due to profit - taking demands, the release of listed companies' third - quarter reports, and geopolitical uncertainties, institutional enthusiasm for participating in the convertible bond market was generally low. In September 2025, the convertible bond positions of insurance institutions in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased by more than 20% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level since 2023. [7] - Looking forward to November, the overall market uncertainty is expected to decline, and the probability of institutional加仓 is relatively high. The market has broken through the upper edge of the 10 - year "convergent triangle", and the subsequent market is worth looking forward to. [7] 3.2 November's Win - Rate and Odds, Focus on Stock - like Nature and Qualification Downgrade - From 2018 to 2024, the probability of the China Securities Convertible Bond Index rising in November was about 71%, and the average monthly increase was 1.3%, indicating a high probability of high prosperity. The high prosperity mainly comes from the promotion of the underlying stocks, and the valuation performance is average. The average change in the 100 - yuan premium rate in November from 2018 to 2024 was - 0.4%, with a probability of more than 50% of a decline. [8][12] - In terms of style, small - scale and low - rating bonds may have high win - rate and odds in November. Since 2020, the average excess return of low - rating bonds relative to high - rating bonds in November was 10.4%, and that of small - scale bonds relative to large - scale bonds was 8.6%, both being the highest among all months. The probability of positive excess returns for small - scale and low - rating convertible bonds in November is about 80%. However, in December, there may be an obvious style switch. [17] 3.3 Quantification: Timing Signals Strengthen at the End of the Month, Focus on Undervaluation and Convexity - In terms of timing, the model's bullish signal strengthened at the end of October. Based on the timing model in the previous report, the model signal fluctuated around the threshold throughout October, and the timing effect slightly outperformed the China Securities Convertible Bond Index. At the end of October, the model signal value was 9.4%, the strongest in the past month. It is considered that the probability of the model being bullish in November is relatively high. [20] - Strategically, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to convexity and undervaluation strategies. The MLP undervaluation strategy had an excess return of nearly 1.8% in the past month and over 15% in the past year, performing the best. The positions of the MLP undervaluation and small - scale high - convexity strategies as of October 31, 2025, are provided. [22][23] 3.4 Individual Bonds: Top Ten Convertible Bonds in November - In November, a dumbbell - shaped combination of technology and cyclical domestic demand is continued. In the technology sector, the lithium - battery and energy - storage directions are favored, such as Yiwei and Guanyu convertible bonds. Technology - related convertible bonds may continue to be the main line in November, such as Liyang, Yirui, and Shentong convertible bonds. For high - performance convertible bonds, Bojun is recommended. In the cyclical + domestic demand sector, Zhongte, ALa, Hebang, and Bengang convertible bonds are recommended. [26] 3.5 October Market Review - In October, the China Securities Convertible Bond Index fluctuated, and the valuation remained high. The index showed a "V" - shaped trend, and Sino - US game was the main influencing factor. Compared with major broad - based indexes, the China Securities Convertible Bond Index performed strongly, underperforming the Guozheng Value and Shanghai Composite Indexes but outperforming the Guozheng 2000 and China Securities 1000 with similar underlying stocks. The 100 - yuan premium rate continued to fluctuate at a high level, closing at 28.8% at the end of the month, remaining above 28% throughout the month. [28] - In terms of clause games, the probability of convertible bond downward revisions decreased month - on - month in October, and the probability of non - call increased. Only three companies proposed downward revisions in October. Nine listed companies announced call provisions in October, the lowest number in the second half of 2025. [30][31] - In terms of supply, there was a net exit of convertible bonds in October, and the acceptance speed of new bonds increased significantly. The net supply of the convertible bond market in October was - 3.31 billion yuan, and the scale of convertible bonds at the end of the month was 55.979 billion yuan. Three convertible bonds were listed in October, with a listing scale of 730.2 million yuan. The two exchanges accepted a total of 20 convertible bond issuance plans, with a face - value scale of 20.144 billion yuan, the highest monthly level since April 2023. [32] - In terms of institutional behavior, insurance funds may have continued to reduce their convertible bond positions in October, while the convertible bond positions of public funds were firm. Insurance's convertible bond positions on the Shanghai Stock Exchange decreased by 7.25% month - on - month in October 2025, and the scale of convertible bonds held by general institutional investors decreased significantly due to the delisting of Pufa Convertible Bonds. Bank - related funds, including wealth management and self - operation, significantly reduced their convertible bond holdings. [34]

Core Viewpoint - The CSI 300 index is exhibiting "absolute low volatility" characteristics in the current market environment, appealing to long-term capital that prefers strong growth and dividend assets [1] Industry Analysis - Long-term capital has a longer assessment cycle and does not require frequent trading, focusing on assets with strong growth trends and dividends [1] - The crowding effect in the CSI 300 index is less significant compared to specific industry sectors, particularly in dividend assets like the CSI Dividend Index and low-volatility dividend stocks, which show more effective crowding indicators due to similar stock logic [1] - Dividend assets, such as banks, are entering a high win-rate zone in the current market environment, suggesting increased attention towards the end of the year and the beginning of the next [1] Company Insights - The CSI 300 Enhanced ETF (561300) not only tracks the CSI 300 index but also incorporates quantitative strategies aimed at pursuing excess returns based on quality beta [1]

Core Insights - The three major stock indices opened higher on October 27, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 4000 points, indicating a positive market sentiment [1] - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) has seen significant inflows, accumulating 66 million over three consecutive days, suggesting a shift in investor focus towards small-cap stocks [1] - Analysts from Zheshang Securities noted that small-cap stocks are likely to outperform the broader market in November, with historical data showing strong performance in previous months [1] Performance Summary - As of October 17, the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) achieved a one-year return of 62.67%, ranking first among 33 similar products [1][2] - In the third quarter, the CSI 2000 Index recorded a gain of 14.31%, which was relatively modest compared to other major indices [1][2] - The performance of various indices in the third quarter was as follows: - ChiNext Index: 50.40% - Sci-Tech Innovation Index: 39.61% - CSI 500: 25.31% - CSI 1000: 19.17% - CSI 300: 17.90% - Wind Micro-Cap Index: 16.24% - CSI 2000: 14.31% - Shanghai Composite Index: 12.73% [2] Fund Manager Insights - Fund manager Deng Tong highlighted a significant divergence in market styles during the third quarter, with growth styles outperforming value styles [1][2] - The performance of quantitative models was negatively impacted by the underperformance of value factors and volume-price factors, leading to a decline in excess returns in the latter half of the quarter [2] - Looking ahead, Deng Tong indicated that the main hotspots in the large-cap growth sector are concentrated in the technology sector, with external uncertainties potentially affecting market confidence [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of industry rotation in the A-share market, indicating a shift from sustained single-line trends to rapid sector changes, with the industry rotation index showing increased activity since 2023 [13][14] - It emphasizes the scarcity of fundamentally strong investment opportunities, suggesting that while growth investment remains relevant, the range of viable options has significantly narrowed compared to the past two decades [20][19] - The report identifies the importance of "crowding" and "calendar effects" as tools for navigating the current market dynamics, with a focus on how these metrics can guide investment strategies [37][38] Group 1: Industry Rotation Dynamics - The A-share market has experienced a notable increase in industry rotation speed, with the duration of dominant trends decreasing from 6-12 months in previous years to approximately 2 months in 2023 [13][14] - The report outlines that the current market environment is characterized by a blend of "extreme rotation" and "absolute low volatility," where thematic investments and stable fundamental assets coexist [4][5] - The report provides a comparative analysis of industry performance, indicating that sectors such as military, robotics, and software are expected to benefit from low crowding and catalysts in the near term [6] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Sector Focus - For active funds, the report suggests focusing on sectors with strong growth trends and catalysts, particularly in the context of the upcoming quarterly reports [6] - It recommends maintaining positions in sectors like computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals, while also noting the potential for increased allocations in dividend-paying sectors such as banks and home appliances as the year-end approaches [6] - The report highlights the significance of calendar effects, suggesting that both active and long-term investors may find opportunities for positioning in the market during specific periods [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry [2][7]. Core Insights - The media industry exhibits significant calendar effects, particularly in February and November, which historically show high positive return probabilities. The report suggests that the current market conditions may present a good opportunity for investment [3][4][5]. - The report highlights that the media sector has experienced a notable adjustment in October, with upcoming third-quarter earnings risks expected to be released, providing a potential upward basis for the industry [4][11]. - Key drivers for the media sector's performance include the ongoing improvement in the gaming and trendy toy industries, the introduction of the "21 Regulations" in broadcasting, and the continuous advancement of AI applications [4][24]. Summary by Sections Historical Performance - From January 2008 to September 2025, the media industry has shown a monthly average return of 0.25%, with 43 positive return months, indicating a 46.24% probability of positive returns. Notably, February and November are the best-performing months [6][11]. - The gaming sub-sector has a higher average monthly return of 0.64% and a positive return probability of 44.09% [6]. Current Market Conditions - In the first half of 2025, the media sector achieved revenues of 254.9 billion and a net profit of 21.8 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4.06% and 28.70%, respectively [15][22]. - The gaming sector specifically reported revenues of 27.7 billion and a net profit of 4.6 billion in Q2 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.40% and 104.47% [22]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the gaming and trendy toy sectors, such as Giant Network, Kaineng Network, and Jibite, as well as emphasizing AI-driven short dramas and content platforms like Mango Super Media and Bilibili [4][32]. - The report also suggests that the recent adjustments in the media sector provide a favorable opportunity for investment, particularly in AI applications and content policy shifts [4][32].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a positive trend in the first trading week after the National Day holiday, with historical data indicating a high probability of gains due to factors such as capital inflow, favorable policies, and market sentiment [1][3]. Market Performance - Historical data shows that since 2010, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen in 10 out of 15 post-National Day trading weeks, with a notable inverse relationship between pre- and post-holiday performance [3]. - The index closed at 3882.78 points before the holiday, just 17 points shy of the previous high of 3899 points, indicating a potential breakout opportunity [1]. Sector Analysis - Leading sectors post-holiday are likely to align with strong performances in overseas markets during the holiday, particularly in technology and AI-related stocks [3]. - Energy metals and lithium sectors, which were active before the holiday, may continue to perform well [3]. Policy Environment - The People's Bank of China announced a significant liquidity injection of 300 billion yuan through reverse repos, alongside a new round of consumption subsidies totaling 69 billion yuan, effective until the end of 2025 [3]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]. Liquidity and Technical Analysis - Expectations for liquidity easing have strengthened, with a record financing balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan before the holiday [5]. - Technical indicators suggest a bullish trend for the Shanghai Composite Index, with a potential breakout above the 3899-point resistance level if brokerage stocks lead the charge [5]. Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is currently high, with trading volumes exceeding 1 trillion yuan for 16 consecutive trading days before the holiday [7]. - However, a decline in trading volume post-holiday could lead to differentiation among previously favored technology stocks, particularly those lacking earnings support [7]. Institutional Outlook - Most institutions maintain an optimistic outlook for the first week post-holiday, citing manageable external risks and positive policy signals [9]. - Strategies suggest maintaining a moderate stock position to capitalize on potential liquidity-driven market movements while being prepared to adjust holdings dynamically [9][10].

Market Overview - After a significant rise, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a notable pullback on October 3, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.54% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.9% [5][6] - The automotive sector was a major drag on the market, with BYD shares falling 3.95% and other new energy vehicle makers like Li Auto and Xpeng also declining over 2% [5][6] - Despite the overall market decline, hydrogen energy stocks showed resilience, with Shanghai Electric surging 13%, reaching a new closing high not seen in over a decade [5][6] Performance Analysis - In September, the Hong Kong stock market performed well, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 13.9%, significantly outperforming other major global indices [7][8] - Historical data indicates a strong "calendar effect" during the National Day holiday, with the Hang Seng Index showing an 86.7% probability of rising during this period since 2010 [8][10] Future Outlook - Short-term market sentiment appears cautious, with expectations of a pullback following the holiday surge, as the "calendar effect" dissipates within a week [10][11] - However, medium to long-term outlook remains optimistic, with analysts suggesting that the current bull market for Hong Kong stocks, which began in Q4 of last year, is still in its mid-stage [10][11] - Key sectors such as industrial products, materials, energy, and healthcare are identified as having high price-to-book ratios, indicating potential for valuation recovery [10][11]

Market Performance - After a significant rise, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a notable pullback on October 3, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.54% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.9% [1][2] - The automotive sector was a major drag on the market, with BYD Co. Ltd. falling 3.95% and other new energy vehicle manufacturers like Li Auto and Xpeng also declining over 2% [2][3] - Despite the overall market decline, hydrogen energy stocks showed resilience, with Shanghai Electric surging 13%, reaching a new closing high not seen in over a decade [1][3] Sector Analysis - The automotive and components sector saw a decline of over 2%, significantly impacting the overall market performance [2] - Gold stocks reversed their earlier strong performance, with companies like Tongguan Gold and Lingbao Gold dropping 4.17% and 3.53%, respectively, amid a decrease in international gold prices [2] - The technology sector experienced volatility, particularly Alibaba, which initially dropped 4.7% but later closed up 1.09% [3] Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historically, the Hong Kong market exhibits a "calendar effect" during the National Day holiday, with an 86.7% probability of the Hang Seng Index rising during this period [4][6] - In September, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 13.9%, leading among global indices, while the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 7.1% and 6.8%, respectively [4][5] - Analysts suggest that while short-term adjustments are expected, the medium to long-term outlook for the Hong Kong market remains positive, driven by structural industry recovery and valuation improvements in certain sectors [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market exhibits a "calendar effect," characterized by a pattern of subdued trading before holidays and a high probability of rebound afterward, particularly following the National Day holiday [2]. Group 1: Calendar Effect Explanation - The "calendar effect" refers to abnormal returns and volatility in financial markets associated with specific dates, leading to a pattern of "first suppression, then rise" in the A-share market [2]. - Investors tend to liquidate or reduce positions before holidays to avoid uncertainties during long breaks, resulting in decreased trading volume and noticeable capital outflows [2]. - After the holiday, capital flows back into the market, especially from margin financing, which shows a pattern of "contraction before the holiday, explosion after" [2]. Group 2: Historical Performance Data - Over the past decade, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown a 70% probability of decline in the five trading days before the National Day holiday and a 60% probability of increase in the five trading days after [4]. - The performance of the index before and after the holiday varies, with notable fluctuations in percentage changes across different years [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities Post-Holiday - The A-share market is expected to experience a "red October," with a high probability of a positive opening after the holiday [5]. - Key sectors likely to benefit include cyclical industries such as finance, real estate, and infrastructure, which are closely tied to macroeconomic performance [5]. - Emerging industries like renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors are anticipated to attract market attention and lead the rebound [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are expected to intensify market structural adjustments, with a recommendation for investors to maintain moderate positions and focus on policy direction and fundamental data [6]. - Various brokerage firms suggest that the market may experience a rebalancing process in Q4, with a shift towards cyclical styles and a rotation within technology sectors [7].