Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - New peanuts are about to hit the market, and peanut prices are oscillating weakly. The overall peanut prices this week showed a weak adjustment. With the drought in Henan's production area alleviating, traders are accelerating inventory clearance, and there is a strong willingness to clear out lower - quality supplies. The demand side remains weak, with sluggish transactions in the domestic market and strong wait - and - see sentiment among demanders. The short - term downward trend in market price transactions may continue. In the short term, the spot price is likely to remain oscillating weakly, and the long - term market mainly depends on the impact of weather on the growth of new - season peanuts and whether there is a significant improvement in market demand. For futures, the peanut weighted index has been oscillating in the range of 7800 - 8400 for nearly a year. Given the continuous growth of peanut planting area in the past two years and no obvious change in the demand side, the short - term price trend is more likely to oscillate weakly within the range. Trend traders can construct an insurance strategy by combining long futures contracts and buying out - of - the - money put options with a strike price 2 - 3 levels lower. Band traders can buy at the lower end of the range and sell at the upper end, but should pay attention to position management [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Viewpoints - New peanuts are about to be launched, and the short - term spot price is likely to oscillate weakly. The long - term market depends on weather and demand. Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Suggestions for different types of traders are provided [7]. 2. Market Review 2.1 Peanut and Oilseed Sector - The peanut weighted index maintains a narrow - range oscillation, with the buying and selling sides in a relatively balanced state, waiting for the price to break through the small - range. The oilseed sector has encountered some pressure at the upper end of the range, and the key is to see if there is follow - up selling [9][10]. 2.2 Peanut 2510 Contract - Last week, the price of the 2510 contract rose to near the upper end of the range, and then the buying power weakened. This week, the price回调 to near the lower end of the range, showing a short - term weak oscillation pattern [14]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Oil Mill Inventory and Operating Rate - The weekly inventory of peanut oil is 39,160 tons, a decrease of 60 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of oil mills is 4.29%, a decrease of about 0.34% compared to last week [17]. 3.2 Peanut Commodity Price (Baisha) - The drought in Henan has eased, and the upcoming launch of new peanuts has accelerated the clearance of lower - quality supplies. The short - term downward trend in market price transactions may continue [20]. 3.3 Peanut Oil Price Trend - The average price of first - grade ordinary peanut oil in the main production areas this week is 15,000 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from last week [24]. 3.4 Peanut Meal Price Trend - The prices of rapeseed meal and soybean meal have fallen back after hitting resistance at the upper end of the range, while the peanut meal price maintains an oscillating pattern [28]. 3.5 Imported Peanuts - The new - crop Sudanese imported refined peanuts are priced at about 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton, and the old - crop at about 8500 yuan/ton, with a slightly weakening price and low inventory and few transactions. Senegalese oil peanuts are priced at about 7800 yuan/ton, and refined peanuts at about 8500 - 8600 yuan/ton, with weak prices and few transactions. African supplies will have few subsequent arrivals. Brazilian high - oleic peanuts of 34/38 specification are priced at 12,000 yuan/ton, and 38/42 specification at 11,500 yuan/ton, with average sales [32]. 3.6 Market Price Index Compared to Last Month - The prices in some domestic markets are slightly weak, with low arrival volumes. Traders mainly consume their previous inventories, and the terminal market sales are slow [35]. 4. Spread Tracking 4.1 Basis Spread - Not elaborated further in the provided content, only the basis chart and data source are given [37][38]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming launch of propylene futures on July 22, 2025, on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, highlighting the oversupply in the global and domestic propylene market and the expected trading strategies for the first day of trading [3][4]. Group 1: Trading Rules and Initial Conditions - The first batch of contracts for propylene futures will include PL2601 to PL2607, with a listing benchmark price of 6350 CNY/ton. Each contract corresponds to 20 tons, with a minimum price fluctuation unit of 1 CNY/ton. The initial margin requirement is set at 8%, and the price limit for the first trading day is ±14% [4][5]. - It is noted that new futures contracts may face liquidity issues on the first trading day, leading to potential price discrepancies. Therefore, it is recommended to use limit orders to avoid significant deviations from expected prices [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The global propylene market is experiencing an oversupply, with an expected capacity of 169 million tons by 2025, of which China will account for 35%. China's total propylene capacity is projected to exceed 60 million tons per year by 2025 [6]. - Domestic propylene production methods include steam cracking, propane dehydrogenation (PDH), catalytic cracking, and methanol-to-olefins, with PDH being the primary contributor to new capacity. However, the average operating rate in this sector is only 74% [6]. - On the demand side, domestic apparent consumption is expected to grow to 60 million tons, but the overall supply-demand balance remains loose. The polypropylene (PP) sector faces overcapacity, with new capacities expected to exceed 50 million tons by 2025, which may exert long-term pressure on propylene prices [7]. Group 3: Trading Strategies for the First Day - For the first day of trading, a single-sided strategy is recommended, focusing on the recent increase in profits from external procurement of propylene for PP production, which supports propylene prices. Attention should be paid to the actions of companies that have previously halted PP production [9]. - A cross-commodity arbitrage strategy is suggested, where the price difference between propylene and PP has compressed to over 800 CNY/ton, allowing for a strategy of buying propylene and selling PP to lock in processing profits [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the sugar futures market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with the Zhengzhou sugar futures price closing at 5810 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 5 CNY/ton or 0.09% from the previous day [1] - In the spot market, prices from Guangxi Sugar Group are quoted between 6040 - 6100 CNY/ton, up by 10 CNY/ton, while Yunnan Sugar Group's prices range from 5810 - 5850 CNY/ton, also up by 10 CNY/ton [1] - As of July 9, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 90, with a total of 3.6855 million tons of sugar waiting for shipment, up from 3.2059 million tons the previous week [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the domestic market is currently in the best import profit window in the last five years, indicating potential increased import pressure in the second half of the year [1] - The trading strategy indicates that the near-month contract should theoretically show a positive spread, while the far-month should show a negative spread, but the actual situation is reversed, with the Zhengzhou September contract being overvalued [1] - Domestic egg prices have generally risen over the weekend, but the increase is slightly below expectations, with red eggs in Heshan rising by 0.2 CNY to 2.3 CNY/lb and white eggs in Guantao rising by 0.07 CNY to 2.58 CNY/lb [1] Group 3 - The overall supply of eggs remains ample, with a decline in egg production rates, leading to increased replenishment by traders; however, the price increase is limited due to supply and weather constraints [1] - The trading strategy for eggs indicates that limited capacity clearance due to ongoing losses results in a larger supply, delaying seasonal price rebounds [1] - Current spot prices are entering a bottoming phase, but inventory pressures limit short-term rebound potential, with near-month bullish positions negatively affected by time [1]

Group 1: Corn Market Analysis - The long-term outlook for corn is a range-bound operation, with medium-term strategies suggesting buying on dips, while short-term auctions continue with prices seeking support [1] - Short-term auction transaction rates for imported corn are declining, and the premium is narrowing, indicating weak bullish expectations in the spot market [1] - Medium-term supply may tighten due to reduced imports and substitutes, but price increases are limited by narrowing price differentials and increased wheat substitution [1] - Long-term price limitations are expected from policy grain releases and wheat substitution, with a focus on import substitution and planting cost pricing [1] - Strategy suggests support levels for the 2509 contract at 2300 - 2320, with potential for wave trading on effective support [1] Group 2: Live Pig Market Analysis - The long-term outlook for live pigs is bearish, with medium-term expectations of a range-bound market and short-term rebounds facing resistance [1] - Short-term market conditions show both support and resistance, leading to price fluctuations [1] - Medium-term supply may increase due to a rise in new piglets and limited declines in slaughter weights, making price increases challenging [1] - Long-term production capacity is expected to be realized due to high breeding sow inventory and improved production efficiency [1] - Strategy indicates first resistance for the 2509 contract at 14400 - 14600 and second resistance at 14800 - 15000, with attention to 13800 resistance for the 2511 contract [1] Group 3: Egg Market Analysis - The egg price may confirm a phase of bottoming out, with futures trading based on basis logic [1] - Short-term supply remains stable, limiting downside potential and suggesting a confirmation of the bottom [1] - Medium-term expectations include a rebound in spot prices during the peak season in August-September, influenced by culling rates [1] - Long-term projections indicate a return to profitability for breeding in Q3, with potential supply pressures in Q4 leading to price declines [1] - Strategy suggests initial upward pressure on main contracts, with resistance levels for the 08 contract at 3600 - 3650 and support at 3400 - 3450, while the 09 contract faces resistance at 3700 - 3720 and support at 3500 - 3550 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [4] - Option strategy: Sell put options [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, and downstream battery enterprises are gradually entering the peak demand season. It is advisable to buy on dips [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On July 10, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$16.79/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -55 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,050 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price remained unchanged at 10,300 yuan/ton, the waste white shell price remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell price remained unchanged at 10,575 yuan/ton [2] Futures Market - On July 10, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,180 yuan/ton and closed at 17,230 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 30,897 lots, down 2,108 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 52,534 lots, up 273 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,295 yuan/ton and a low of 17,120 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,200 yuan/ton and closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the afternoon close [2] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged from the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract for ex-factory sales. In Hunan, smelters' quotes narrowed to near par with SMM1 lead, but actual transactions were scarce, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 220 - 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract. In Jiangxi, holders' quotes at a premium of 100 - 120 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales faced difficulties in closing deals. In Yunnan, holders' quotes at a discount of 200 - 220 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales met with just the rigid demand. With a slight increase in lead futures prices, some holders were reluctant to sell and were waiting and seeing or intended to deliver to the warehouse, while downstream enterprises maintained rigid procurement, resulting in a slight decline in market transactions [3] Inventory - On July 10, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 61,000 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the same period last week. As of July 10, the LME lead inventory was 252,375 tons, a decrease of 2,725 tons from the previous trading day [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Market conditions are complex and influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - policies, and international events. Different commodities show different trends, and investors are advised to make decisions based on specific market conditions [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract's closing price increased by 0.90% to 20700 yuan/ton, and the LME price was 2611 dollars/ton. Aluminum plants maintain high - load production, but the demand side shows a decline in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate. With increasing inventory, the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract's closing price rose 2.49% to 3208 yuan/ton. Some northern alumina plants are under maintenance, and supply has tightened. The short - term price is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to buy on dips and purchase call options [2]. - **Silicon**: The main 09 contract closed at 8470 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton. Supply is increasing in Yunnan, and inventory is gradually decreasing. The industry's production start - up elasticity is high, and the rebound pressure is large. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main LC2509 contract closed at 64180 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. Supply is increasing, and inventory has reached a new high. Although demand is expected to improve marginally, it is difficult to drive inventory reduction. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 08 contract closed at 41345 yuan/ton, up 2075 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and demand in July shows a decline in silicon wafer and battery cell production schedules. The market is influenced by rumors, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2510 contract closed at 3141 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton. Supply and demand are both weak, but inventory pressure is small due to low production. The futures discount has narrowed, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see and try the 10/1 reverse spread [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2509 contract closed at 764.5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Supply and demand are neutral, and inventory is decreasing. The iron water output is stable, and the futures valuation is moderately high. It is recommended to wait and see and set up a long position in the 2605 volume - to - ore ratio [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2509 contract closed at 906.5 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan/ton. Supply and demand are generally loose but improving. The futures are at a premium, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. The supply is loose in the near - term internationally, and the growth of US soybeans is normal in the long - term. The demand is dominated by South America in the short - term, and there are uncertainties in US new - crop soybeans. The short - term US soybeans are expected to fluctuate within a range, and the domestic market follows the international cost side. Attention should be paid to the USDA report [5]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price declined slightly. The annual supply - demand relationship has tightened marginally, but wheat substitution and increased imports of substitute grains suppress the price. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract closed at 5805 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. Brazil's ethanol blending ratio will increase, but the impact on the sugar - making ratio is limited. The domestic market follows the trend of raw sugar, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short in the futures market, sell call options, and lock in the price for sugar users [5]. - **Cotton**: Overnight, US cotton prices rebounded. US cotton exports increased, and Brazil's cotton production is expected to rise. In China, the cotton price fluctuated upward, and textile enterprise inventory decreased while yarn inventory increased. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - trading strategy [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The short - term Malaysian palm oil price declined. The production and export in Malaysia decreased in June, and inventory increased. The short - term price center is expected to move up with wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [5]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract declined slightly, and the spot price rose slightly. Supply is high, and although low prices stimulate demand, the high - temperature and high - humidity weather is not conducive to storage. The price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract rose slightly, and most of the spot prices declined. Supply is increasing, and high temperatures affect consumption. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract closed at 7783 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The price of apples in Shandong is stable. The early - maturing varieties' opening price may support the market, but if supply increases later, the market expectation may be revised downward. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract rebounded slightly. Supply is increasing due to new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices, and imports are expected to decrease. Demand is improving at the end of the off - season. The short - term market will fluctuate, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts on price rebounds in the long - term [7]. - **PVC**: The v09 contract closed at 5040 yuan/ton, up 2.2%. Supply is expected to increase, and inventory has increased. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [7]. - **Rubber**: The main contract rose 2.86% to 14405 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase in the third quarter, and inventory is expected to decrease. The price increase is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and hold the RU - NR long - spread [8]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract closed at 1090 yuan/ton, up 5.4%. Supply is increasing, and inventory is decreasing. The fundamental situation is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **PP**: The main contract rebounded slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is differentiated. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts on price rebounds in the long - term [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices declined due to the US tariff on Brazil and OPEC's production plan. Supply is expected to be in surplus, especially in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on price increases [8]. - **Styrene**: The main EB contract continued to rebound slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. The short - term market will fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts on price rebounds in the long - term [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa09 contract closed at 1231 yuan/ton, up 3.7%. Supply is increasing after maintenance, and inventory is at a high level. The fundamental situation is weak, and it is recommended to short on price increases [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market has a relatively loose supply - demand balance. Domestic soybeans face inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the domestic market is influenced by the weak international market. In the oil sector, palm oil is in a production - inventory increase phase, and domestic oils have different supply - demand characteristics. Corn has a complex domestic supply - demand situation, and its futures are expected to bottom - oscillate. The hog market is expected to be volatile under a loose supply - demand situation. Peanuts may be short - term strong but face long - term downward pressure. The egg market has different trends for different contracts. Apples are expected to be volatile in the short term. Cotton is expected to have limited upward space [5][9][16][25][30][35][42][47][52] Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index dropped 0.12% to 1013.75 cents/bushel, and CBOT meal index fell 0.21% to 280.4 dollars/short ton [2] - **Information**: USDA export sales and monthly supply - demand report have certain forecasts. Brazilian farmers sold less soybeans in 2025, and domestic oil mill data shows supply - demand status [2][3] - **Logic**: International and domestic soybean markets have a loose supply - demand balance [5] - **Strategy**: Low - point long positions, MRM09 spread expansion, and option watching [6] Sugar - **External Market**: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract up 0.41 (2.54%) to 16.54 cents/pound [7] - **Information**: Forecasts for Brazilian sugar production are down year - on - year. Import costs and profits are provided, and domestic sugar prices are adjusted [8] - **Logic**: International sugar is weak, and domestic sugar follows the international trend [9] - **Strategy**: Zheng sugar oscillates, spread watching, and using out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11] Oils - **External Market**: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices changed slightly [13] - **Information**: Forecasts for global soybean and EU rapeseed production. Domestic oil trading volume increased [14][15] - **Logic**: Palm oil is in production - inventory increase, and domestic oils have different supply - demand situations [16] - **Strategy**: Short - term oscillation, spread and option watching [17][18][19] Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market**: CBOT corn futures stabilized [21] - **Information**: Corn inventory and trading volume data in domestic ports, and processing data [23] - **Logic**: US corn has limited downside, and domestic corn has a complex supply - demand situation [25] - **Strategy**: Long on 09 corn, spread operation, and using call - writing strategy for those with spot [26][27] Hogs - **Information**: Hog, piglet, and sow prices are provided, and relevant agricultural product price indices are given [30] - **Logic**: Hog prices are supported but expected to be volatile [30] - **Strategy**: Short - side thinking, LH91 positive spread, and option watching [31] Peanuts - **Information**: Peanut and peanut product prices, and inventory data are provided [33][34] - **Logic**: Peanuts may be short - term strong but face long - term downward pressure [35] - **Strategy**: Short on 10 peanuts at high points, spread watching, and selling pk510 - C - 8800 options [36][38] Eggs - **Information**: Egg prices, production, and sales data are provided [40] - **Logic**: Different egg contracts have different trends [42] - **Strategy**: Long on the 9 - month contract, spread watching, and selling put options [43] Apples - **Information**: Apple inventory, import - export, and price data are provided [45] - **Logic**: Apples are expected to be short - term oscillatory [47] - **Strategy**: Low - buying and high - selling on AP10, spread watching, and selling put options [48] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market**: ICE US cotton rose [49] - **Information**: China's cotton inventory data and spot trading information are provided [50] - **Logic**: US cotton may be short - term weak but has potential positives, and Zheng cotton has limited upward space [51][52] - **Strategy**: Oscillation for US cotton, short - term slightly strong but limited upward space for Zheng cotton, spread watching, and selling put options [53]

Supply and Demand - As of July 3, the utilization rate of benzene production capacity is at 78.14%, with a weekly output of 433,300 tons, an increase of 700 tons [2] - The commercial inventory of benzene at Jiangsu port is 174,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous period, representing a 1.69% decline; however, it has increased by 144,000 tons compared to the same period last year, marking a 480% year-on-year increase [2] Market Outlook - Domestic facilities are undergoing planned maintenance, leading to a decrease in benzene load; however, overseas production is gradually increasing, contributing to an overall rise in Asian benzene load [4] - The overall supply-demand situation for benzene shows marginal improvement, but high absolute levels of inventory at ports and expectations of new production from Shandong Yulong and Hongrun limit price support [4] - The benchmark price for benzene futures contracts on July 8, 2025, is set at 5,900 yuan/ton for multiple contracts [4] - Trading strategies for benzene futures include a bearish outlook due to significant supply-demand pressures and expectations of a downward trend in crude oil prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trading situation and strategies for pure benzene futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, highlighting the initial trading performance and market dynamics following the listing of the contracts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Trading Situation - Pure benzene futures were listed on July 8, 2025, with the initial contracts priced at 5900 CNY/ton, closely aligning with the prevailing spot prices in East China [2]. - The opening prices for the contracts BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, and BZ2606 were 5900 CNY/ton, 5950 CNY/ton, 6050 CNY/ton, and 5900 CNY/ton respectively, indicating a contango structure in the forward curve [3]. - The main contract BZ2603 recorded a trading volume of 24,865 lots and a closing price of 5931 CNY/ton, which is 31 CNY/ton higher than the listing price [3]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - The article suggests a short-term bullish outlook for pure benzene due to low valuations and support from rising oil prices, while recommending a cautious approach for potential short-selling opportunities in the third quarter [4]. - The contango structure observed in the opening prices reflects the current inventory accumulation, but there is an expectation for a reversal in the curve as the market approaches the third quarter [6]. - For cross-commodity arbitrage, the article notes that the processing margin for styrene is currently low, indicating limited arbitrage opportunities, but suggests monitoring for potential upward corrections if margins fall below 100 CNY/ton [10]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - The article highlights that the PX price is currently weak, while benzene prices have shown slight increases, leading to a narrowing PX-BZ price spread [13]. - The anticipated improvement in PX market supply and demand dynamics suggests a potential for long positions in the PX-BZ spread as the market approaches peak demand seasons [13].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of pure benzene futures contracts at a base price of 5900 CNY/ton is expected to be influenced by supply-demand pressures, oil price trends, and downstream styrene market conditions [1][13]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply of pure benzene is under pressure due to high domestic production and inventory levels, with new production capacity exceeding 2.4 million tons expected in the second half of 2025 [5][6]. - Domestic pure benzene imports reached 2.3756 million tons by May 2025, a 62.6% increase year-on-year, primarily driven by reduced demand from the U.S. and a shift in export focus from South Korea to China [5][6]. - The downstream demand for pure benzene is expected to weaken, particularly due to declining profits in styrene and other downstream products, which may limit the support for pure benzene prices [5][10][11]. Oil Market Impact - The oil market is anticipated to experience a downward shift in price levels in the second half of 2025, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical factors affecting supply [3]. - Concerns over U.S.-China tariff disputes and potential economic downturns in the U.S. may further weaken global oil demand, impacting the pricing dynamics of pure benzene and its derivatives [3]. Trading Strategies - The trading strategy for pure benzene futures suggests a bearish outlook due to significant supply-demand pressures and a slight premium of the futures price over the spot price [2][13]. - The market is expected to exhibit a Contango structure, indicating potential opportunities for cross-period arbitrage [2][13]. - The price spread between styrene and pure benzene is anticipated to narrow, reflecting the weakening profit margins in the styrene market [2][11].